I love the way outlier tracks this info. And this video is very informative on how to apply it. If you dont understand this video watch it till you do.
What do the trends tell us? If a Home Favorite moves from -3 to -3.5, do the trends say to follow it or fade it? There must be some overall trends regardless of sharp vs square money. If a Home Dog goes from +3 to +3.5, do the trends say to follow it and take the Visitor Favorite or fade it and take the Home Dog at an even better number? I'd love to see a chart on this.
following steam or fading it is 50/50. You will never be successful trying to figure this out. Some move a line one way to get a better number and hammer the other side later in the week. Remember most successful handicappers win around 55% so they are wrong almost half the time.
Where is the line supposed to be compared to where it actually is? That’s how I want to bet. Chances of a team or bet winning compared to odds given. But I don’t know how lines are made or how to generate my own. Only thing I got is looking at sharpest books opening and see which way line goes from there.
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Be careful..early line movement might be a sharp fake to get the line moving the other way so they can bet heavy
I love the way outlier tracks this info. And this video is very informative on how to apply it. If you dont understand this video watch it till you do.
What do the trends tell us? If a Home Favorite moves from -3 to -3.5, do the trends say to follow it or fade it? There must be some overall trends regardless of sharp vs square money. If a Home Dog goes from +3 to +3.5, do the trends say to follow it and take the Visitor Favorite or fade it and take the Home Dog at an even better number? I'd love to see a chart on this.
following steam or fading it is 50/50. You will never be successful trying to figure this out. Some move a line one way to get a better number and hammer the other side later in the week. Remember most successful handicappers win around 55% so they are wrong almost half the time.
Where is the line supposed to be compared to where it actually is? That’s how I want to bet. Chances of a team or bet winning compared to odds given. But I don’t know how lines are made or how to generate my own. Only thing I got is looking at sharpest books opening and see which way line goes from there.
You need to originate. Come up with your own models to bet like that.
@ unfortunately I have no clue how to do this accurately
Nice information, but how do you access that information on Outlier?
Its in the drop down arrow under the games