The Fall of Putin
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
- Turning 72 next month, Putin appears to be on top of his game: After nearly a quarter-of-a-century in power, despite the world's sanctions and international arrest warrants, Putin shows no signs of stopping.
But is that really the whole picture? Or, just below the surface, something is rotten in Moscow.
Although countries that have had military coups are more likely to have military-backed coups in the future, Putin is far from safe, according to Kyiv Post special correspondent and political analyst Jason Smart.
Today, Putin is continuing his drive to give the FSB power while weakening the capabilities of his appointed military leaders. Just recently, in the counteroffensive to expel Ukrainian troops from Kursk Oblast of Russia, Putin demoted the military's role by putting the FSB in charge, something that added insult to injury as the FSB continues to conduct raids and arrest Russian military officers for corruption. This has led to an alleged panic within the senior military ranks due to the near-universal influence of graft in the Russian Armed Forces - military leaders have more of a personal gain in ridding themselves of the threat of criminal prosecution for their misdeeds.
Who would be in league to plot against Putin?
A wide swath of the oligarchical and siloviki classes understands that if Putin falls, it might allow them to prevent their current prosecution. Post-Putin, the same approach could prevent their persecution by rival clans of power that might seek to take the Kremlin throne.
Watch to learn why Putin's regime will eventually end and how it is most likely to play out.
"Putin should be sleeping with one eye open," says Smart, as the situation in the Kremlin is becoming far more complex than it may appear.
Dr. Smart can be followed:
Web: JasonJaySmart.com
RUclips: / @jasonjaysmart
X: x.com/OfficeJJ...
Facebook: JasonJaySmart
LinkedIn: /jasonjaysmart
Good job. I concur with your perspective. It is the nature of power and the aging out of a tyrant.
I agree!
Thank you! We appreciate you watching!
There’s a definite building of tension going on between the gang factions in Russia. Expect a violent end to Putin in short order.
they are going broke reeeaaal fast, so no wonder :D
@@dbwhab4150 Exactly, in the corrupt vertical structure of this junta, when you stop feeding the machine, it turns against you. Pootler favors the criminaly insane, they won't be nice. But they are everywhere, so be ready, it'll most probably get messy in the end, they won't accept defeat. Yet the foreign agents are comfortable and rich, in the west, they might keep a ow profile and continue to enjoy everything the west offers which they know more than anyone Mother Muscovia will never give them.
@@dbwhab4150 Orban is feeling the pinch, Lukachenko is feeling the pinch, Turkey is suddently quite silent, Iran is waiting, yet still feeding the Gaza conflict as a priority. China... lol, they have their own problems in scale and quantity that are starting to be a war of it's own, an internal one, an imminent uprising. Times are hard for the little dictators like khuylo. Even the PDRK in North Korea, fat Kim seems to have been replaced with the real "supreme leader" that was living in his fat shadow for all these years, he might have been purged already and his sister took over, finally, an itch she had to scratch! Things are changing. Be ready.
Yes , if he won in few days the war was an hero and for Russian all was ok . But if you begin to create problems inside Russian dont forgive . Not being a democracy will be turmoils and may be a civil war
I am sure there is a dose of polonium-210 with Putin's name on it just waiting to be administered.
unique insight as always Jason
I'm sure you have heard this many times, but I thought I'd share Churchill's pithy wisdom with your viewers.
“Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”
― Winston S. Churchill
Never heard that quote before but Churchill was a genious and a hero, without him the world would have been a terrible place. God bless his Soul!
Thank you! We appreciate you watching!
It's a literal mafia state.
And it came to power via an act of pure terrorism in the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings. We knew about it at the time, did nothing, and have been appeasing him ever since.
True. However, Putin's mafia is worse than the ordinary Russian mafia since Putin's group has more legitimacy.
True! Putin comes out of a gangster culture in St. Petersburg.
zero sum rules.
"mafia state" Exactly. Putin's background in St. Petersburg.
thanks Jason for the excellent analysis. My suggestion is that you rename this video 'The Fall of Putin - Part 1' and then create more videos like this analysing in more detail how Putin is likely to fall, calling them Part 2 etc. Keep safe.
Exactly that! I‘m sure we‘ll have more information about Putin‘s factions and how they are fighting each other as time goes on. We‘ve also seen a very few ethnic minoritiy attacks on opposing ethnic minorities no longer supported by Putin, as well as terrorist attacks in Moscow.
Yes! Jason, would you please? 👉🏼👈
Thanks for sharing.
SLAVA 🇺🇦
I am glad I saw your video, Jason. I completely endorse your analysis. I would be very much interested in hearing commentary from you as to whether the empire of the Russian Federation will crumble down as well. I firmly believe this would be in the best interest of the free world, allowing democracy to flourish in current democracies, and take hold in states that do not have any form of democracy. Furthermore, I don’t buy the tired political theory that a broken up Russian empire creates a power vacuum for China to fill. Naturally, the US would have to take the lead in cultivating democracy in the 22 republics, 9 territories, 46 oblasts, and various other federal subjects of the current Russian empire. What say you, Dr. Smart?…
I don’t think the West should make any steps at all towards cultivating democracy in Russia for a very long time if at all. They need to stew in their own chaos and figure out themselves what sort of future they want. They need to fully experience the results of their indifference and lack of social agency with themselves and after that their lack of it with their neighbours! The West does not have a good record in trying to democratise other nations successfully because it must come from within.
@@dwarftomatoprojectI agree with blackswan that it might (or might not) happen and with you that it shouldn't. Yes, no matter what good a Democratic project would be for the Russians it must come from within. And it won't be easy so it would probably take decades
When the Russian Military don’t get paid, due to Putin destroying the economy, I doubt any body guard will be able to save him😂😂😂
YES !!!! Is Donald Trump offering the same for us in America????? He's offered us a future with no need to vote again but just the once for him!
I am terrified over another Trump presidency for that very reason and so many more !!💙
If trump wins presidential election, he stated that they would be no need to vote again because I believe he would behave as the king he always wanted to be and he would probably hand over the American kingdom to ....oh God I hate to say it but don junior. The horror would continue and the military would serve to protect him and his family. Just like any other malevolent king in history.
Biden is a senile meat puppet for a deep state cabal. Harris advanced her career with sexual favors to well connected geriatric politicians.
Democracy, that was stolen in 2020.
💯% tRump is a Putin wannabe and the Republican Party are wannabe oligarchs! 💙💙💙Vote blue no matter who💙💙💙
Yeah, because he won't run for office again. One term will be enough. The man doesn't want to be king. I'd much rather have a future without woke, too. A future where the government is the servant of the people, not one where we live on the government's plantation and like aid for Ukraine, the Democrats dole out just enough for us to stay in the fight but not get ahead..
As Always A Great Assessment Of What Is Reality In Russia !
Thank you!
Why do you capitalize every first letter?
We won’t know exactly what would have happened to him. One day he’ll just be gone🤷🏼♂️ And some new leader will take his place.
He does in fact seem to be running his country and his military almost as if he were already dead and the person running the show is one of the stupid doubles
He has now got himself in a position that he must sleep with one eye open 😂😂
What's most incredible is that your average Russian will drop to their knees in front of the new dicktator and claim he's the greatest as they service him and what tough men they are as they do the most unmanly thing imaginable😂
I (unknowingly) tried to do business with a Russian business while living in Europe. It became clear very quickly that concepts such as bribery and quid pro quo run deep from the top of the food chain to the bottom.
I hope and I believe you are right, Jason
Glory to Ukraine ❤️🇺🇦🙏🏻✌🏻
🇺🇦Heroyam Slava🇺🇦
@7:12 .... Yes, they had coffee with Pregozian and were chit chatting as if they were all best long friends. While this chit chat was going on, Putin and his entourage were racing away from the Kremlin! They absolutely believed at that time that he was going to march all the way into Moscow and into the Kremlin with a larger force than he showed up with. Putin scrambled away like a coward and didn't return for days, but instead chose moving his location constantly and doing what work needed to be done all remotely m
Excellently put together broadcast. Very well thought out. Here's hoping my comment helps the algorithm see this as important.
Slava Ukraiina 🇺🇦🔱🙏
Putin needs to go and the Russian Federation break up into a number of smaller countries who learn to live at peace with their neighbours
They can form an economic union, minus Russia, similar to the EU.
DUH. Russia possesses the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, with around 6,000 nuclear warheads. The breakup of the Russian Federation could lead to an extremely dangerous scenario in which these nuclear weapons fall under the control of various factions or regions, including extremist or ultra-nationalist groups. The lack of centralized control over nuclear arsenals could significantly raise the risk of nuclear proliferation or accidental use. THINK!!
@@Remembering-rq6si What you've written is just what I used to read about the potential breakup of the USSR. It continued to oppress the racial and ethnic groups of the republics outside Russia - including genocide in Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the first half of the 1930s. Our fears of dismantlement of the colossus should not prevent us from seeking the dissolution of the vast power of such a monstrous cruel regime. THINK!
Has to be the future.
@Remembering-rq6si There is no way Russia has even a single working nuke. With the corruption and graft, there is no way they've received the proper regular maintenance they need over the last 30 years.
I really appreciate Jason's commentary. We're more accustomed to him being an interviewer of non-Ukrainian commentators, but he is truly a great and knowledgeable analyst in his own right.
🔥🙏🕊🌻🔱 Excellent information! This was an extremely helpful breakdown of the world of Russia! His downfall cannot happen soon enough! Ukraine is Stronger with 🚀Patriots, Storm Shadow, Scalps, ATACMS and GLSDB!🚀 Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes! The World Stands Committed with Ukraine and The Heroes Quest for Democracy and Retribution! 🔱🌻🕊🙏🔥
A great commentary Jason!
Thank you very much! ❤❤❤❤
Thank you for your reports.
You spelled "comedy" wrong.
UKRAINE 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 FOREVER ❤FREEDOM ❤❤
But what about war crimes? THIS time, due to social media, they won't just go away.
Without an occupying force, there's limited enforcement mechanisms: sanctions, arrest warrants, visa denials, removal from UN security council, black ops... what else?
George W Bush is hoping you forget.
@@alandoak5146Right? Russia will not share the same fate as Japan or Germany. These two countries have largely lost their autonomy, and continue to be occupied by US bases. Some US states have more autonomy.
@@alandoak5146If anything, the US needs to leave the UN. Also, with black ops, would come a symmetrically retaliatory measure on Russia's part against Western officials, not just their own dissidents or rogue spies.
Thank you, Dr. Smart. You spoke a powerful truth.
This is a man who really knows what he is talking about!
Very insightful. Thank you for this 🙏
Interesting discussion.
Thank you Jason!
thank you
This is brilliant. It even applies to more than Putin.
The World stands with Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦❤️🙏🏻✌🏻🌎🇺🇸
The whole world does not stand with ukraine. Seems like, here in the USA, it's 50/50. If one said "it feels like the whole world supports ukraine "........
@@canyonrootspeople in every country support ukraine 🇺🇦
Not true. China, India, The entire Global South (and Hungary and Turkey) is either neutral or pro Russia.
@@canyonroots
Just goes to show that nobody has a monopoly of ignorance, eh?
Go and buy your $400 tacky chinese made trainers while I contribute to building drones, yeah?
@@canyonroots sounds like you would be better off keeping your options to yourself. Just saying ❤️🇺🇦🙏🏻🇺🇸✌🏻🌎
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦♥️🤟🤟🤟
Excellent! We need more of this analysis. Thanks
Really hope your assessment proves to be correct. Thank you. 😎
200% agree
Perhaps is time to talk with Gerasimov before he find a window open and make an agreement
INSIDE REAL DEAL RUSKI FSB EVIL MOB STUFF,,,,SPOT ON ,YOUR INTUITION IS AS WELL YOUR FORTE,WELL DONE ,SLAVA UKRAINI!
Thumbs up and subscribed.
THANK GOD THE WORLD AGGREES
The wisdom needs to become stronger than the fear.
👍👍👌👌 Well done!
🇺🇦🙏👏👍💪🤞🇺🇸❤️
We can "hope" this happens.
I believe the Russian Federation will soon break up.
Very well spoken, I agree!
An interesting analysis for a likely end to the Putin era. May I congratulate you, Bohdan Nayhalo and the rest of the Kyiv Post for your first-class reporting of the conflict. My only concern is the extent to which the resultant in-fighting might destabilise and fragment Russia or which other states might seek to take aggressive advantage.
Thanks Jason, I'm looking forward to some follow up videos. E.g. do you believe the mafia empire will be maintained or will Russia break up into a number of new states? If so, are the free world and other countries like China and India ready to step in and avoid the mafia forces causing inevitable disastrous collapse of most of those?
Well said
A truly positive and really optimistic perspective about the (near) end of the war in Ukraine! 🕊
Thank you for the insight. 👍
Glory to Ukraine! 🇺🇦
All the best from Bucharest. 🇷🇴
"Things will be as they are until they are not." Here's hoping his "optomistic" expectation of the new regime to call back the army is dead on!
He really is Smart our Jason ❤
One Smart Fellow,
Old russian saying: "Is an old russian tradition, that our leaders left the kremlin, feet first"!
I so want to believe you Jason. Let it be! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇦🇺
Fully agree with this analysis!!
Well said.
I get the theory, but would like to know more about the actual factions, not that that‘s easy to determine. Other YT videos did speculate on how Russia itself would break up into smaller countries, much like USSR did. Would be interesting to better know who in Russia controls what areas! Thanks for the video!
Thanks Dr Smart. Now that putler is so busy, what chance Belarus takes the opportunity to say, thanks for the nukes, the border is closed and here is your friend lukashenko?
Great clip, well said mate 👍😎
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Ukraine *_will_* win, but it _must_ be on *_Ukraine's_* terms!!
🇺🇦🌻Слава Україні!!🌻🇺🇦
🌻🇺🇦Героям слава!!🇺🇦🌻
✊️💞 ~ NC, USA
I have to admit, , this guy's smart!
Why does the richest person on planet Earth not basque in all those riches have to offer, but choose to heartlessly attack his neighbors and damage Russia's worldwide standing?
Putin's worst fear is that the Russian people will see Ukrainians living a better life in a free society and will figure out that oppression does not improve their lives.
He has a mission, to trash the whole of Europe. He has a huge mountain to climb to do that. It's obvious that he has no concept of what that dream will cost, or how feint it's chances are. I'm pretty sure that he believed his military capable of capturing Ukraine in three days. He did not factor in that the initial attack in 2014 was a surprise attack against a ""brother state" that was under the control of a Putin puppet. His ham-fisted move is building Ukraine into a major weapons manufacturer, and it's military into a very very competent modern military. I'm pretty sure that the result of the invasion is nowhere near anything Putin envisaged. I suspect that if it was not for the US "leash" on Ukraine, the war would be over pretty damn quickly, and not in Russia's favor.
This is what donald trump wants to be like
"Winning" is what matters.
Bigly!
He had four years to do that and made no attempt to. In fact he deferred more to the legislative process than his predecessor.
A great assessment. Many thanks. Slava Ukraini
Excellent video. Thank you
RS. Canada
Thanks!
Jason, you’re the best. Thank you
Brilliant analysis!!! I hope you've given them something to think about. Thank you, this should be shown on TV everywhere!!!👏🏻👍🏻💪🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇬🇧
Thank you for illuminating the black box of the Russian state in a succinct and digestible video. What Putin has done to Russia over the past 3 1/2 years is unforgivable. He has to pay the ultimate price.
I sincerely hope the new leader will send Putin on to The Hague. But I am afraid he will want to make sure Putin has no chance of being rescued by some group of loyalists.
I am not sure if taking down a burgeoning democracy on his doorstep was as important to Putin as to him being anointed the new king/tzar by his subjects/people but it was an obvious two birds with one stone opportunity from a military viewpoint - pity for Putin his army had corrupted so much he couldn’t pull it off as he had thought. Slava Ukraini
When Putin became president in the spring of 2000, at a closed board meeting of the Russian FSB, he said from the podium: “The KGB's task of infiltrating the Russian government has been accomplished.” It is unclear whether he was joking or serious. But from that moment on, the influence of the FSB on all the processes taking place in the country grew every year. Until May of this year, the only state institution that was not subject to the FSB's influence was the army.
Thanks for an excellent presentation 👌👌❤️❤️
Hey FSB your going up against the UKRAINIAN ARMY! Not Russian every day citizens . They will hand you your @$$€$.😂
Finally, a smart analysis of Mr Putin
Glory to🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦👍😎
In 1933, Churchill said, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma: but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interests.”
Thank you for your analysis
That was the Single, Best video I've watched this year...
🏆
Thank You...🫶
Slava Ukrani ✌️ 💛 🇺🇦 ✌️ 💛 🇺🇦 ✌️
From Texas..
Very interesting Jason. Thank you. Very thought provoking.
Positive thinking, but I hope it is true.
I think Russia's imminent (within 2 years) collapse is Ukraine's actual "peace plan." Budanov was recently discussing how Russia's economy can't sustain itself much longer. And I guarantee he has agents running around Russia, worsening fractures between the various factions while simultaneously cultivating relationships with them. We know Russia is burning through its Soviet inheritance of weapons and munitions but doesn't have the industrial capacity to manufacture new equipment on a large enough scale to sustain attritional warfare. The signs of collapse are there, from prigozhin's mutiny to the bad divorce of Russia's richest woman (who owns Wildberries, aka "Russian Amazon") that had the ex husband ask for help from Chechen warlord Kadyurov and killed a bunch of security guards when he attempted to seize the company by force. This "corporate raiding" was a big problem in the 90's and 00's meaning Russia is starting to regress.
I'm not a fan of Putin at all, but the way you described the Russian government as a mafia, and only concerned with maximizing their security and personal gain...sounds awfuly familiar. Sounds exactly like politicians in the US where I'm from.
Very interesting perspective. I learned a lot. Thank you. You’ve brought me back to Kyiv Post.
Fantastic analysis and commentary. My own background is in psychological anthropology, not political science. Nonetheless, I had reached much the same conclusions already back in fall of 2022. This war has been horrific for Ukraine; but it has been a mythic disaster for the Russian state. The price they have payed in the various currencies they deal in (lives, money, power, security) for the "gains" they have accomplished are potentially some of the most lopsided losses in human history. The Orc horde and the Russian State more broadly are not yet collapsing; but it seems impossible to imagine that it is not much closer to some sort of collapse than it was 3 years ago.
The one question which we in the West (and even pro-Western Russian analysts like Konstantin and "Inside Ukraine") don't seem to have much of a grip on is: why is the Putin war machine proving to be so durable?
I hope that Ukrainians, with their deeper cultural insights into the underlying social and cultural history of Soviet and Russian imperial societies have more clarity on this topic than me, far too much of a generalist and even a Russian-focused Western like yourself. When the war is over, and Ukraine is victorious (whether the civil war[s] remain ongoing in the former Russian Federation or not), I hope we get more insight into this topic. You are correct that the post-Soviet Russian Federation is fundamentally a mafia-like criminal organization; the Soviet Union itself was not that much different itself. Indeed, many pre-Enlightenment autocratic and monarchial societies tend to exhibit similar traits. But the ruling elites of the Russian empire in its various forms through the centuries does seem to have an unusual capacity to subject their subjects to remarkable degrees of suffering before they are forced out.
I think Ukraine can accelerate Putin's fall. Oligarchs can probably very fast turn into anti-war and anti-Putin if their manufacturies (or oil depots) are blown up. Probably some generals will be unhappy with the way Putin handles the war and see Putin as the problem, if Russia loses ground in Ukraine. Probably the next leader of Russia will be not much different from Putin, but could pull out of the war without losing his face and would probably to stabilize his new regime and stop the sanctions.
@ Jason Smart, thank you for a good explanation and analysis. Yes I'm certain that the various groupings are preparing for the time after pootin. When time comes it might be grim.
Thanks!
Jason is Smart! Thanks Jason just hope he doesn’t use NP on Ukraine or on any other Nation!
I have a feeling Putin will end soon. It always happens like the movie Death of Stalin. That is a Russian only way. You are correct .
Another option is that Putin is also securing his 'legacy' and who follows him? Wouldn't that keep all the oligarchs in line?
Great analysis and well presented.
Just a great analysis.
Russia: "A gas station with nuclear weapons".
Very interesting analysis and commentary. Seems very likely.
impressive analysis! Thank you!
Danke für die gute Analyse. Ich hoffe, dass eines der Szenarien in nicht allzu ferner Zeit eintreffen wird. KP macht einen guten Job. Liebe Grüsse aus dem westlicheren Teil Europas. Wir stehen zu euch ❤️🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦❤️.
What will the next Russian mafia state look like?
Thank you for your transparent and objectives of what is happening with Putin. You are such a good communicator and commentator... Many thanks, Tania Belfort, Star of Peace, Brazil. God bless you!
Thank you so much!
Thanks that was very interesting…smart by name smart by nature 😎
Excellent commentary as always. I think what will tip the balance against Putin is the growing realization that Russia can neither win nor indefinitely sustain the war, so that Putin is desperately needed as a scapegoat. Plausible deniability.
Great video, love the photo above your shoulder.
All good points. Hope it happens as you predict. We won't know until it happens. What happens when he is overthrown. We can only hope the military will be recalled to protect they who overthrow Russia. I only know for sure we cannot letup our pressure on the Russian war machine. If we do Russia will regain strength because it will be looked at as a victory predicted by Putin. People will have no desire for change as what they are doing works. I stand with Ukraine.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤
By by Snake Eye,s Putin .
The question is what singular personality (given the inevitable) does now or would likely possess an extreme skillset of statesmen-like capability of keeping a fuedal-like evolution within the current federation from occuring? Given the many oligarchs and the fact they have no interest in seeing their rivals succeed, do we witness individual states within the federation negotiate their own treaties (with those oligarchs serving to be the administerers to those regions) with the west? When Tito's rule in Yugoslavia no longer provided the bonding agents necessary to keep the nation from tearing itself apart....it did exactly that and...it seemed the population knew very well what was to come even in the earliest days of his absence. Tyrant or not...this is the reason I feared not what was happening in 2022 in Autmn but, what happens as a result and what radical dynamics will exist given his fall. If the collapse of the Soviet Union and the west's subsequent failure to truely aid a fledgeling federation help define itself and welcome it into a golabal economy in order to inexorably tie it to a system we all embraced can be seen clearly now, what ques are we missing now and what policies are we thinking about that keep this scenario from becoming EXACTLY the ticking time-bomb that was post Soviet Russia?
Maybe the US wanted to keep them in a chokehold but EU was very open to developing their economy what with trade links & Co-funded pipeline projects etc - the Germans thought they could pacify Putin with all these projects and buying Russian gas etc but they had other plans and spat in the Germans’ faces - once bitten, twice shy as they say. They are the big-hitters of the EU and won’t forget this snub for a long time. Russian expansionism was more attractive than staying friends with Western Europe….. sadly