Should we worry over Rupee depreciation, and do strong & weak currencies define national pride
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- Опубликовано: 9 сен 2024
- In episode 958 of CutTheClutter, Shekhar Gupta looks at the recent fall in Rupee’s value compared to the dollar and decodes the economics behind the phenomenon. We also look at differential in inflation, currency manipulation and how investor George Soros’ strategic planning helped him make a fortune.
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I am frequently dazzled by different aspects of you, Shekhar ji. Today it was your humility. You are a walking talking idol of so many people - the way you digest your hard earned reputation and fame and keep your feet on the ground is truly worthy of respect. And no, I do not want a discount on my subscription as a quid pro quo.
I think the logic that weak currency would boost exports wouldn’t be wholly true for us, look at our top export items- refined petroleum, gems, pharmaceuticals, they themselves depend on imported raw materials. Weak currency also implies costly imports. Subsequently these costly imports would feed into our export price as well.
What you said is true qualitatively, but would certainly depend on what percentage of the processed goods' final cost is derived from the imported raw material's input cost. For example, for fuel based products, crude oil prices accounts for ~50% of the final cost (in the US acc. to the BEA, never checked for Indian numbers). So, your assertion holds true for petro and gem products, but for machinery, consumer goods, agro-products, electronics, pharmaceuticals (yes, pharma benefits according to some trade documents I read from Sun Pharma), chemicals, textiles, and even service exports such as IT, etc. the proportion is much lower. So, yes, certain sectors would suffer while others won't. Just thought I should point that out as a caveat, even though I have no idea how it affects the export basket as a whole 😅
Oh boy i am tired of this half knowledgeable people..India's highest export is engineering products..almost 100 billion dollar of our export till February 2022 out of 370 billion dollar is engineering goods export..if petroleum and gems were our biggest export then gujarat would have been twice the economy it currently possesses
Right nishant
Right... stability of currency is required
Good point.
The weaken ruppee is a concern for fix salary guys like me, my purchasing power is going down but my salary is not going up
Stagflation..
@@Apocalypse9696 All basic raw material like crude, electronics etc are imported
@@Apocalypse9696 exactly
@@loka120 read properly and understand.
@@Apocalypse9696 Everything we use has some bit of imported component, from palm oil in basic snacks to basic chips and electronic boards used in almost every electronic product is imported, and all this is transported in trucks running on imported oil or gas.
One of the biggest Indian exporters, the Software industry, gets paid in dollars and pays its employees in rupees... A controlled devaluation of rupee is certainly a favorable situation
So u are saying a weak currency is a good thing????
If a 50 word edit can be considered useful, this episode should be limited to less than 5 minutes considering the contents.
Hi SG! Can you do an episode of CTC on the return of 'old pension scheme' in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and its comparison with NPS? Thanks.
In 2013-14, Modi ji has said that "The rupee is in the hospital today, fighting for its life", "I am in governance too, I know that the value of the rupee cannot dwindle so swiftly. What is the reason behind the Indian rupee falling like this? You will have to give an answer to this question. This nation demands an answer." and we always hv Sushma ji " TV dekhane me dar lagata hai" remark.
We would love to have more of "Shekharonomics" occassionally. 😀
Always love the print report. By the way a good idea of staying in a college for a cheap lodging 😂😉👍👌😁
If we intend to manufacture and export via PLI we will have to eventually depreciate rupee.
Problem will be resulting high inflation since our country is mostly run on Petrol Tax.
PLI? Those PLI doesnt go to Right person.. No MSME getting advantage on PLI.. MSME is failing in India that has to be Re developed
@@scienceisreligion5618 because PLI isn't for small companies. It's for LARGE SCALE companies who will promote manufacturing of scale. So in this respect, PLI is doing wonders and creating jobs and increasing exports. But yes,there has to some PLI-2 for MSMEs. This is cure India's disease of unemployment
@@scienceisreligion5618 Constructive destruction.
@@korabkanwar6784 but MSME are the ones who need actual money. Large companies ard having good profit even in this corona time. Most of Workers are in MSME where Govt needs to focus to revive
@@arunrajap lets hope Exports goes good in coming time✌
Just my observation regarding inflation,the average inflation in US is almost same as India in the past quarter due to the quantitative easing initiatives during COVID and they are trying to control it by rate increase sucking out liquidity..But inspite of this depreciation has happened..Is it because the fact that there is a higher expectation of inflation in India in future is higher due to expectation of higher crude oil prices.
USD being the global currency makes it a different ball game always. Compare rupee to other currencies and see if your line of thought holds up.
@@dharmani_youtube You have a point Gaurav...The depreciation is probably happening in currencies of all crude oil importing nations due to this expectation of higher prices...US has higher reserves and probably rely more on shale in the event of higher prices.
No rate cuts.. 🙃 there are going to be rate increases.
@@akshayhiremath4584 ya that's what I meant..my bad😶
There is a significant element of capital outflows from Indian stock markets by FIIs which means demand for dollars invested earlier before a few years. USD also gets additional benefit of being world's reserve currency
The very fact that you used the ECONOMICS course to cover your rent indicates that you know a lot about economics. Now, I have to pay my fees in DOLLARS so I am NOT AT all happy about Rupee weakening. However, I do think that the Russia-Ukraine crisis won't last long and Rupee might bounce back a bit.
Indians don't understand economics. This is why we are so prone to socialistic tendencies
@@sankalp6872 socialism has ruined India! Everything should be balanced!
@@TheRishijoesanu This generalization is not good. it is not just Indians. Common people even in the Developed countries don't understand it. Read Nial Ferguson, a great historian who has written a lot about the history of money as we know it in today's world.
@@sankalp6872 Hey...not fair. When the Brits left us... how many industries did we have? How many really well educated folks to do administration jobs? How much equipment we had? How much technology? How many research institutions? How many hospitals? Roads? Railways? Hospitals? And contemporary technologies such as cell phones, computers, and networking.
We did well, despite our handicaps. We were thought vulnerable so China attacked us. We survived that. We survived two wars with Pakistan too. The monies that could have been pushed into development, unfortunately went into wars and war equipment. We have no choice. Right?
Yes, there are deplorable issues. But there is something to appreciate too. BARC for example. ISRO for example. With the kinda population we have, and the diversity in it, in terms of religion, language, caste, states, it has been a difficult period.
Lalu needed more punishment. His family should be banned from standing up for elections for the next 100 years. The wealth should be taken away too. But such laws are not coming, right?
Sengar too. His family should lose wealth and be banned from standing up for elections or hold any position in any government office.
Why laws are not being modified? Because our type of politics is bad. People attack others actions rather than policies. If you watched Lok Sabha and Rajya sabha proceedings you will find them quoting some foreigner as if we are still subordinates and our brains don't work.
You will find them repeating same thing..why on earth does speaker allow that? You will find people speaking in favor without specific reason just the need to have camera focused on them. That can be done by voting, right? Why just say this is a good policy without giving reasons that another person has not mentioned?
Slows us down.
@@vandanaraoyalamanchi9813 A lot more than the Chinese
In 1947 when British left India had 14000 km of railways and China had 5000 km of railways
India had 9800 factories and China had 3400 factories
India had 8 ports and China had 5 ports
Now compare that with today's China
With all due respect Sir, I think you went a bit overboard with your criticism of those expressing concern over weakening rupee. Of course currency nationalism is foolish but currency manipulation is just not the only smart thing a country could do. There are other factors like supply chain effececiency and manufacturing capabilities that make a country's economy export friendly and than one can think about benefits of a weaker currency. But in a country like India a weaker currency would just be a tol on CAD. Monetory policies can't be based just keeping the interests of exporters in mind. Moreover not every export segment get benefited from a weaker currency. For example the garment segment with minor import component may get benefited but auto sector where you need to import many components like semiconductors, a weaker rupee isn't helpful. This long comment is not to suggest India shall take radical measures like digging it's forex reserves but it must work on things like inflation and consumer sentiments. Hope you go through this whole paragraph of mine and please correct me if I'm wrong
I think the point Shekhar was making here was that Rupee SHOULD BE ALLOWED to find its market equilibrium rate and RBI should avoid paranoia-driven intervention (at least, for now). The crisis is driven by an external factor i.e. Ukraine-Russia war and the associated sanctions. Most experts (the sane kind NOT TV LOUDMOUTHS) believe that this crisis won't last long. The problem with "Sanctions" is that it's a sword that cuts both ways. Russia isn't the only one hurt. Europe and the US are bleeding hard too. Inflation there is smashing all records. Moreover, Biden has elections lined up. It's basically a CONTEST OF WHO BLINKS FIRST.
True, always treat rupee weakness as a symptom of another problem (i.e. inflation) and not the cause....idea of controlling rupee using only monetory policies always fail
@@sankalp6872 If inflation in the US and Europe are breaking all records and as the Fed has printed trillions worth of USD and even given doles, why aren't the USD and Euro weakening against the Rupee?
If a poor person of India invest in a fixed deposit with his little savings in a bank or post office in India he will get next to nothing for his investment. Because Indian currency will depreciate against dollar in such manner he will get next to nothing. For an example if a poor person invested one lac rupees in 2008 in a kvp in a post office . His Kisan Vikas Patra will mature in 2022 and he will get two lac rupees . But the value of rupees against dollar in 2008 is 1 $= 43.51rs so 1 lac rs =2298.33$ in 2008 .After 14 years of investment he will get two lac rupees in 2022. Now 2lac ₹ =2564$ in current exchange rate which is 1$=78₹ so instead of getting 2298$×2=4596 $=358488₹ for his investment for 14years he is getting 2564$= 200000₹. If that person have a daughter of 5 years then in 2008 now she is 19 years old for marriage age in 2022. He planned her marriage after he get his investment back and he get two lac rupees. In 2008 commodity and gold price is very low against now days because in those days our currency was stronger than now and he is in a big problem now . If our rupees remains in 2022 at 2008 Label against dollar
that's the reality of the world we live in.
Let's have an orderly retreat of the rupee to Rs100, it will help our economy and all of us. Brilliant logic.
Till 2013 depreciation of rupee was govt's failure. Now it's masterstroke
Bechara congress mara gya
It was a govt failure among politicians not economist. Economist then & now still says the same. Fortunately or unfortunately India's opposition is dead to change the narrative to govt failure i guess
Indians don't understand economics. This is why we are so prone to socialistic tendencies
Rupee is going down as India’s import cost is rising due to rise in global oil prices and global gold prices
@Sumeet tanwar what?? Do u even know the crisis innturkey ?? When oil prices are normal itself turkey deprciation started . Don’t u follow news ??
@Sumeet tanwar turkey is a state that has gone rouge for the west. West has pushed them to FATF grey list and are withdrawing their investment funds ...... there are two types of war military war and economic war.... after 2nd world war west has perfected the art of economic war fare to break the backbone of any country for that matter .....any hostile country who is a huge net exporter will be either confronted with economic blocked or by military might as last resort......a country who is a net importer and hugely dependent on western funds for economic growth is at the mercy of west.....
Ofcourse this is gonnahappen as they bothare related.
@Sumeet tanwar bro our currency devaluation has been hardly 3.5-4% bcoz of current crisis but Turkish lira fell by 150% when everything was normal
Gupta's editorials are becoming like Republic TV rather than neutral!! Gud to see his point of view of sending rupee going down...but what about the taxes and earning opportunities?!?
People hardly understand basic eco/buisness finance. Understnding Currency Economics is one tall task.
He did loose money when Soviet defaulted. His book SOROS ON SOROS is a goodread.
Sir, As we import more than we export, weak rupee is definitely bad for us, whatever justifications there be. China exports more than it import, hence a weaker currency is good for them. And about inflation- the current inflation is not due to actual rise in demand it is artificially created by printing more money, the so called quantitative easing, bad for the salaried class whose increaments doesn't keep up with the pace of inflation.
Thanks sir for this video. But the reason PRINT should hold GOI accountable and question it for currency devaluation is, these are the same individuals or IT cell which created currency nationalism. I still remember those forwards of INR becoming 30-40 to dollar if Modi becomes PM. Many indian did believe it. BJP cant create a false narrative, benefit from it and disregard it when it's not suitable for them.
Last year the Indian rupee was Asia’s worst and best performing currency. Which means that in the next few months there will probably so much inflow of dollars that the rupee will appreciate and the RBI will have to buy more dollars to stop rupee from becoming too strong. How do people think india has 630 billion in reserves?
All worst performing pm
Is that "American" Dollars or Rupee's and where is it reserved?
@@ChuckAmadi Foreign reserves are largely in dollars but also in other currencies.
You forgot to mention the word "emerging". Last year india's currency was worst emerging market currently in asia ( which excludes Pakistan and turkey ) .
@H J Economic growth pre-covid was lowest since Narasimha Rao govt.
Grew below 6% first time in 24 years in 2019 (before pandamic)
Previous govt manage to grow better than this during the 2008 crisis.
Only modi bhakths think this govt is good. Data is against that idea.
Best part is SG has memorized the standard trolls.
Truth is weakening of currency is very bad for oil imports. We are facing two issues now at same time oil price rice and currency weakness. Both happening at same time is bad. Srilanka currently raised petrol price by 50 Rs.
Loved how Gupta Ji didn't take Sri Sri Ravishankar's name
This is very different topic from all earlier episodes since CTC started. Thank you for the information.
Dear SG
I fully agree with your statement that you are not the best positioned to talk about economic matters. Best left to Prof. IP.
There is a big difference between China constantly devaluing its currency vs India. China is a net exporter by a huge margin. India is a net importer. Weakening currency gradually is always positive for the Chinese. Our decision making will have to be quite different. Hence the balancing act.
I agree with the broader point that it is not always a bad thing if currency depreciates marginally.
We take your advice Shekhar falling rupee is good thing now.
SG you are so free flowing and sarcastic in this episode. I loved it. :)
Your video does well to explain the why the depreciation of the INR in the last year is an adjustment. Could you help explain if it’s weakening over the last 10 years is a good indicator or not?
8:23 The US Fed's Funds Rate is even more ridiculous. Inflation is running at around 9% as per Fed statistics, and the Fed Funds Rate is 25 basis points for over a year. In spite of this, if the INR is depreciating, that means inflation in India is in the 10-15% range right now.
CTC started off rationalizing and confirming that the rupee devaluation is inline with differential inflation. This explanation is correct and confirms that real inflation derived from rupee devaluation is higher than the published inflation. Question to ask is whether income levels have increased in rupee terms to maintain the same purchasing power. If not then we are worse off. CTC then jumps to exchange rate manipulations. The debate should be taken back to increase purchase power and not a distraction of exchange rate manipulation. Strong words used on people asking for stronger rupees. The strong words are appropriate for those asking stronger rupee doing market manipulation without underlying change. But for those sections whose income is not increasing at the rate of inflation and those whose assets or income that feed them daily reduce due to inflation, action taken to improve income level that retain the same purchase power parity would also see it through the exchange rate emotionally. It will be good if we can differentiate voice of the egoistic nationalist and a declining citizen.
You called the contradictions in this CTC...
Thank you for commenting this. I was thinking about this while watching the whole video.
Snehash Philip did a CTC once when SG was away. I think more such CTCs can be done.
Weakening of currency is something you shouldn’t be worried about as you pointed out. But currency weakening is just a manifestation of strong inflation in the economy and that is son ethics we should absolutely be worried about. Justifying it on grounds of currency adjusting is justifying the a byproduct of core issue rather than addressing the core issue.
you should talk to India Charts Rohit Shrivastava for Dollar depreciation and Rupee, I can say he is the one of the brightest minds in Indian stock market and he tracks and publishes daily about world markets.
Very well explained... demystified!!
5:17 reminds me that Shekhar Gupta was also once a normal college graduate searching for a good job
Excellent excellent excellent...learnt more than a economist
US inflation is now 7.9%and so by that logic rupee should appreciate.But it does not happen always like that.These are uncertain times.
Hi sir,
I have no education in Economics. But, I am aware of terms like repo rate and have read and understood The Big Shot. I am sorry to say that today's episode went completely over my head.
Regards,
a long-term fan
"ANATOMY" had me scared😂
Countries like Japan & China which have high exports then imports benefits from lower currency valuation to Dollar , where as we can say that lower rupee valuation against dollar is good for our export we should see that still our imports is much more than exports plus India is one of the largest importer of crude oil amounting 80% so rise in the price of crude oil affects the purchasing capacity and in turn increases the chances of inflation in the Indian economy
Please can you explain how the Chinese Yuan , the Korean Won or even the Vietnamese Dong have not depreciated AT ALL vs USD in the last 10 years even as their exports have boomed, inflation is very low and wages, GDP/cap has risen ?? Exchange rates impact is a way more complex economic phenomena than the traditional "expert" argument specially for a trade deficit country like us
Excellent stuff. Thank you!
Quite an honest confession .... Really liked it 🙏
That is the same argument used by the British PM when they had devalue the GBP against the USD. The phrase was Prime Minister Harold Wilson "From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued. "
I still can’t believe the Thai Baht is twice as much valuable as the Indian rupee.
Very well explained Sir.
Thanks for an cogent , cohesive and compelling argument. I agree with these points that are usually put forward by economic pundits to defend a falling rupee. But as someone else has pointed out, these days , the demand for our exports is relatively price-invariant/insensitive/inelastic as we move up the value chain. Also, a weak rupee directly affects the aspirations of students and other middle class people who would like to travel abroad to broaden their horizons etc (as many westerners do) and in many ways, lowers our effective quality of life. Also, the main component of our import bill is our import of fuel which is directly affected by the value of the rupee and this can lead to an inflationary spiral. Also, from my observations over the last 10 - 15 years, the rupee has fallen in value inspite of many indications of India Inc performing well. If something affects the US market, paradoxically, the Indian Rupee falls in value !!. If the US increases its federal interest rates, the Indian rupee falls in value, If the US decreases its interest rates, surprise , surprise, again, the rupee falls in value !!!! . And, instead of increasing interest rates to reduce inflationary pressures, RBI has been consistently reducing interest rates !! Essentially, the only people benefiting seem to the business community and NRI's. The worst affected seem to be the urban educated middle class who should ideally at the forefront of changes
Thank You, SG for doing this episode. Based on the title I assumed you and Ila Ji would co-present! Regards. NM.
30 second summary:
If inflation in US in 1% and in India is 7% then it is okay to have currency depreciation at 6%. This is currency readjustment not weakening.
Rest of the video is about cranial cavity etc 😅😅 (unexpected badgering from a veteran journalist).
USA inflation is at 40 years high ...it is 7.5% not 1%
Weakening currency due to oil issue but we must appreciate its always be between 70-75 constantly from past 10 years no loss ,it shows india is developing gradually but its growth has solid base.
VERY WELL EXPLAINED
15:12 so basically what ure talking about is Short position on the currency?
Video starts at 5:30 🤣 the rest is all introduction and how SG sir doesn't know economics😅
*I think as long as we have strong industry within our country, we should be good.*
The rupee could surprise by rising little over the next few years. US has pumped so much money into its economy, their currency could depreciate.
Very good presentation & great analysis Sir, Thanks to Ila Madam.
Being a science student you could have switched over to Economics during your student period it should have been very much useful with a science base. Of course, your grasp of the subject is too good. in fact, few of us in those/ your days studied the science CBZ subjects & changed over to Arts with the Economics, Psychology and Sociology. Since I have picked up Psychology as the 4th Optional subject at 12th level, I switched over to Arts for the love of the subject Psychology & Economics. Though it was a theory of probability. Our financial discipline is our Strength, that's how we stood firm in these Global crises.
When Pranab Da declared Economy stimulus, one of the leading Industrialists from Southern India who was chairing a prominent Industrial Association has said no need for Economy stimulus for us, as we don't have an Economy Crisis but we act like facing a crisis just because the US & UK had one.
Franklin Templeton President a Successful Global Investor was mentioning in one of his interviews the reason for his investment success is that he is mixing both Economics & Psychology while investing.
As far as i know inflation rate in USA was higher than that of India since last two quarters. And still we saw rupee depreciating heavily in December and now in march. So this explanation doesn't make much sense.
USD is the global trade currency so it is not affected as much since a lot of USD is held outside of US rather than in US. Compare Rupee to other currencies to see if your logic holds up.
🤣🤣BRO THEY HV THE LIBERTY TO PRINT AS MUCH AS DOLLAR THEY WANT AND WE HAVE TO EARN DOLLAR 🤣🤣SO INFLATION THERE DOESNT MATTER
@@dharmani_youtube i know the reason for the devaluation of rupee is not due to inflation differential but the way this video has been put together, to an average joe, it signifies that the current devaluation of rupee is due to the inflation differential. Which is not the case.
He moves so much and is becoming a commando journalist...
Nicely depicted Soros's technic.!
I have a doubt due to weaken currency the cost of fuel also increases resulting in high inflation.
4:00 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 I'm here for this crude language.
5:00 and called himself out for enrolling in school for the dorm room, 👏👏👏👏👏 boss move uncle clutter!
inflation is much more in US as compared to that in India. this fall cannot be attributed to inflation alone. these are times of crisis, and reserve currency is bound to appreciate in such time. interestingly, cny is appreciating against the dollar.
According to most scholars demand and supply of dollar & rupee determines actual value
According to this theory inr shouldn't have depreciated over the years because we have net positive export of goods and services
USA also gave lot of covid relief money...m
Start from 3.30 minutes if you want to save your time.
Currency depreciation helps only if we have an export based economy but we should ponder on the fact that we have a huge import bill to fund for oil, gold etc. On the other hand China will gain by depreciating yen as China is a current account surplus country unlike us so we cannot compare these two.
Strong and weak currency and nations pride has nothing related. But when your currency becomes weak in your country, and when people cant buy the basics with the salary or wages they get and when the only work done by Govt is to increase tax to run itself. It means you have economic mismanagement.
Why am I remembering modiji speech against Manmohan ji related to rupees valuation.
Ok...for what we should be worry... and when
I would like to propose the term "sororist" for people who look for opportunities of and trigger currency crises.
I keep coming back to this video now and then, to witness the casual anguish SG projects in this video🤣😅
Thanks
if the peoples net monthly income increase is parallel and directly proportional to fall in currency ... Its fine. But unfortunately for India's K shape recovery - Top private executives income and all the gov employee income has actually increased.(who make majority of direct tax payer). But the majority of population - their income has either decreased or remain stagnant ... for example - a junior writer @print suppose make 30K in 2020 still makes 30k in 2022 . There is no regular increment for them like gov employees ...
Hum to ye cheez Shinchan dekhke bhi samaj gaye the...
Ke strong currency doesnot means strong economy...
Varna Nobita ki 1000 Yen wali comic book wala Japan 3rd largest economy in the world na hota
Trends in currency valuation reflect trends in economic health of the country and impoverishment of the masses.
It appears that politicians and bureaucrats knowingly or unknowingly prefer to keep impoverishing people in the long run.
yes exactly.
Start this video from 5:35.
Plz next ctc on Pakistan no confidence motion
Shekhar gupta ji
For a country like China who is a nett exporter, a weak currency will be helpful. But for India whose imports are higher, does a weakening Rupee bode well?
help the poor that you have so many by your side You have to understand this If you look a little in every child you will see the smile on your face you have to understand that there I am
I completely agree with you. But why our government don't explain to the people in more clear way. It baffles me that in this day and age of social media there are not many govt people explaining these situations. But on the other hand our people have been robbed by the commando comic channel's. Too tragic a situation for us.
Gupta ji dissing people left and right lmao
Interesting... Can you tell me if inflation improves when our currency devalues and finds its level? Also how is our currency devalueing a good thing when oil, one of our biggest imports, is bought using the petro dollar, which is growing more expensive, and when we no longer have access to markets from where we can buy oil using the rupee ( like Iran)? Another point about China is that it is manufacturing centric; so they flood the market with cheaper goods as their currency devalues. Ours is more service based; can the same still be said about our currency devaluing??
India's biggest challenge ahead..
Sliding Rupee. Worst performing
currency amongst emerging markets.
and international Crude Priced
hovering around 130$/b.
and FII pull out frt capital mkt
Weakened currency is an indirect tax on public. Inflation is infact a way of taxing public at large.. but this type of taxation is regressive as it takes more from poorest citizens instead of rich individuals... When government prints money or reduces interest rate, money supply increases.. so the actual worth of your salary, earnings, profits is reduced instantly but public doesnt react so much as if it were to increases gst or income tax..
Dirty floating by RBI should be abolished. Until then the rupee can't find its own place in the forex.. Let the market decide!
As they says..Better late than Never
Bit inaccurate about George Soros. He was already very successful before the GBP devaluation. In 1973, Soros and Rogers both founded the QUANTUM FUND. During the following 10 years, the portfolio gained 4200% while the S&P advanced about 47%.The Quantum Fund was one of the first truly international funds.
In 1980, Rogers decided to “retire”.
He came up with “Theory of Reflexivity” which says economics is not pure science as in case of science observer doesn’t impact the outcome. In economics, if we think usd will be strong, and we sell local currency to buy usd, then we are not observers only, we are impacting the outcome.
Modi was so much worried about falling rupee value in 2013. Why we should not worry now.
What an eye opener!
Rupee depreciation will make indian exports bloom and create more jobs in india.
Rs was nearly 30 per dollor in early 2000's.Now It is 75+ per dollor.
Let's say, it is 50 per dollor, petrol prices even after all these taxes wid be 80 rs per litre.
It means less money spent in foreign exchange for buying petroleum.
Less inflation, more saving.
Yes export values increases by weakened money but Country like India shld hv it in control.
Inflation is a tax on savers.
Shouldn't the savers whose less consumption help the plent be encouraged instead of punishing with bullshit taxes?
mr sekar gupta you are in correct in asian crisis .at 15 minutes of this video you said SOROS bought those currency .sorry he did not buy he shorted thai bhatt indonesian rupia malalysian ringiit .it SHORT and not LONG that made all of them to depreciate , main cause of indonesian rupiah was PEREGRINE honkong based FII , who asked SAFE RIDE car rental cos to borrow in usd because of low interest rate when that currency depreciated loss was huge both PEREGRINE AND SOFE RIDE went down check you rfacts......
The weaker rupee is good for export but bad for imports. India exports a lot of manufactured products so that's good. But a lot of machines used for manufacturing are imported. So big impact on the manufacturing sector.
The question that crops in my mind is ....Is Inflation good ?
Net exporters, like China, benefit from a weaker currency. Net importers, like India, benefit from a stronger currency.
ur forgetting the "I" , I.E. THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS IN iNDIA, Weaker rupee is good for that. Also we want to be a net exporter, so we need to keep INR weak, as manufacturing industries will take time to grow.
@@PK-tt5kk how would you become net exporter when supply chain costs are high.
@@varg92 yeah there I totally agree with u,
Thank you for a nice video
11:30 it's not nationalism but pure political interest that causes opposition to make a fuss abt currency depreciation. Chian doesn't have any political opposition.
when is the app coming ???