War, Peace, and Politics with Victor Davis Hanson | GoodFellows
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- Recorded on May 20, 2022
As the fighting in Ukraine continues, what’s the wisest strategy for the United States-keep sending weapons, help the Ukrainians broaden their operations, or advocate for a peaceful settlement? Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution’s Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow, joins senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H. R. McMaster for a spirited debate regarding the breadth of American involvement overseas, Donald Trump’s sway over election outcomes, plus California’s drought and its impact on Victor’s farm in the San Joaquin Valley.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
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Victor Davis Hanson is an American Hero.
Always good to see Dr. Hanson, my favorite professor. 🤝
For the second time I see VDH and gen. HR generating fiery discussion. This is outstanding quality debate, sheer pleasure to watch
VDH I am 4th generation Californian, origins around Coalinga now in Temecula. You have my utmost respect and admiration. Continued good health and a long vibrant life.
I vote you include VDH every week!
Great level of debate from fine minds. But think VDH has nailed the realpolitik of the situation in Ukraine.
I have hope for my (young) generation because never before has such great information been readily available and free to the common man. Being able to study these great men in my youth makes me wonder how much more I can learn as I grow older!
Finally this show is back on….plenty of material! Do 50 shows a year!
I like hearing HR and VDH back and forth.
Please have Peter Zeihan on! I'd love to see a dialogue between him and the Goodfellows; it would be really interesting to hear their thoughts on his position on China!
Agree totally
Absolutely!
Haha, I was thinking the same thing.
I so wish you all were running our beloved country!!!! Please continue these debates! I feel so much more informed with truth after listening to this show!!
Please add VDH to the GFs sessions. He contributed here to a useful dialogue. It also energized HR to a point I’ve not seen in past GF sessions. Well done to all the GFs.
After 20 years of service, I tried to return to the state my family has lived in since the 1850's, but found it unliveable because of ineffective government and expensive housing. Sad.
Great show. You guys are brilliant.
Brilliant day!.... I miss you all so much when you don't broadcast. Somehow getting my work finished while listening to you makes an easier day.
With VDH too...this is a can't miss, only wish it was longer than an hr...👍
When VDH says he doesn't see anyway out of it then that is troubling. He has researched it probably better than most politicians.
I have been checking their channel for this every day for 2 weeks. Thank you
Fantastic show! Learned lots! Everyone was tops today! Thank you all!
This podcast is just so good 👍.
Great discussion, I really enjoyed hearing the arguments made by these excellent historians. Keep it up and I look forward to hearing the group speak with Dr. Rice.
Best episode ever!
Great show. Thanks for the assertive stance of you all.
Great, meaningful and very informative discussions. Thank you and please keep them flowing!
watching this debate now in late November 2022 I can truly appreciate HR's prescience.
Bringing VDH into the mix spiced things up. Next: How about John Mearsheimer? Bridge too far....
Great show as always.
The whole debate on Ukraine went around in circles when the question was simply "what is the price you are willing to pay for Ukraine to regain all their claimed territory". For HR and John apparently any price was worth paying hence their objection to the use of the term "escalation". To them the current conflict status and one where the black sea fleet is sunk, attacks on Russian soil and Ukrainian cities like Kiev and Lviv reduced to rubble as a consequence is the same conflict. While Niall and Victor consider that nightmarish scenario different to the current status hence the use of the term "escalation". Idealism vs Realism IMO.
Please get on Stephen Kotkin
As always a fantastic guest and the regular cast is impeccable
Alright! VDH!
Prudent and astute from Ferguson and VDH, addressing harder questions about peace and strategy into which sometimes HR and John, for all their wisdom, don't seem to want to go: the most spirited, but also the best Goodfellows in a long time. Sometimes this show can get a little comfortable in its neo-con tracks (I don't call them that disparagingly), but this was more rounded and frank, I felt. Maybe it helped to have equal firepower on both sides of the debate!
Great lively debate gentlemen.
This is the most important content oon RUclips
Can’t wait to hear Condi’s thoughts next week!
Thank you All 🙏
Amazing discussion
Good discussion all. VDH wins on account of rationality.
Niall too.
Great commentary and discussion. A former bricklayer fireplace builder wants to know. Why was there no mention of the explored and proven natural gas reserves within the confines of the Donbast and Crimea, regions of Ukraine? Always follow the wealth gentlemen
Great episode
VDH needs to be on Mt Rushmore
I’ve never seen VDH in a hat or T-shirt
VERY GOOD DISCUSSION.
Almonds are extremely water-intensive, and hardly a truly essential product.
Go VDH!
I'm with H.R. McMaster on the strategy for Ukraine. His arguments make the most sense to me.
Enjoyed the debate
Very interesting!
Great debate!
GREAT DEBATE!!! 👏👏
Awesome show
Great discussion.
I’m with HR - defending one’s coastline is not escalating. The rest on the show are intellectualizing about war, but haven’t experienced it.
Ferguson......bravo... someone talking sense.
great convo
There is nothing universal about American or "Western" values and norms. Otherwise Putin's popularity wouldn't have shot up to over 90% when he annexed Crimea. To try to impose these values and norms with force or proxy wars is like playing whack-a-mole. Sooner or later, the costs on itself and on the world will simply accelerate the decline of the US and the West. This conflict wouldn't have happened if Ukraine agreed to be neutral and NATO agreed to roll back its forces to pre-1997 locations. That proposal did not demand any cessation of Ukrainian territory, yet it was flatly rejected because NATO felt it had the right to do whatever it wanted (this is a norm, it's taken for granted by all of you, including the two who called for deescalation). How about putting that proposal back on the table?
Putin is doing to Ukraine (successfully) on the battlefield what the US is (largely successfully) doing to China economically. He's losing but at the same time Ukraine is losing more (e.g. 11% vs. 44% GDP decline forecasts). It's a "I lose but you lose more" mentality. Both sides are doing it.
Another wild card that is simply ignored. What happens if this conflict keeps going into the winter, after Xi has Covid under control again and secures a third term. Do you think Xi would allow Putin to fall or for him to fail completely in Ukraine. With the myriad of economic restrictions / sanctions the US has already imposed on China, how many people in the Politburo would just throw their hands up and say what have we got to lose.
The way Biden withdrew cannot be blamed on Trump.
Great show as always - HR is an absolute legend!
Listen, HR, Victor is correct. it's not about who did what when. It's about the potential consequences. Like, for instance, the potential consequences of going into Iraq or Afghanistan. Or Vietnam. Except, this time, the adversary is a nuclear power and the leader is not stable and is facing a potentially existential situation (for him, personally). Victor is spot on.
Wow.
Spicy.
Love to listen to you animal gentlemen
HR McMasters is the one people should be listening to on Ukraine. Common sense tells us that Russia is not fighting for control of the Donbas, because the Donbas isn't worth what Russia is spending in terms of lives, limbs, and treasure. No, Russia is fighting for control of the Bessarabia Gap (a historic invasion route into Russia), which is located in southwest Ukraine and Moldova. That makes sense as Russia's intermediate objective. The longer term objective would be the Suwalki Gap (another historic invasion route into Russia), which is in Poland and implicates the Baltic states, as well. (These are all NATO members, and Russia wants their territory.) This view of Russia's longer term objective is consistent with Putin's recent "Peter the Great" remarks.
Ultimately, supporting Ukraine all the way is the most likely path to avoid becoming directly involved in a ground war in Europe in the 2030s. Leaning on Ukraine to accept terms from Russia will give Russia the opportunity to regroup, rearm, and reorganize in preparation for completing a long term program to take control of the Bessarabia Gap and the Suwalki Gap.
If Niall and Victor are going to be consistent then it looks like it will be "Bye, bye Taiwan" if China (also a nuclear power) decides to take back Taiwan.
Zelensky did tell the WEF that Ukraine is willing to start negotiations when Russia pulled back to the pre-invasion lines.
Bring meirsheimer to the Ukraine discussion.
At 26:00 Oops. Wrong. WTF. Wrong. Wrong. You're wrong.
First, fantastic discussion. More VDH! Second, VDH is correct, but lets state it differently. Escalation is what VLAD considers it to be, and 'are we prepared' to accept the blowback from Russia for providing UKraine the means to defend and win?
'Nuclear' please.
Excellent discussion. At this point in this war, I tend to agree with HRM.
I am just so torn. I agree with everyone, even despite the disagreement on Ukraine. It seems like an impossible balancing act. Ideally we should help defend Ukraine's territorial integrity with our weapons and funding and thereby show our word means something. Yet also, we cannot allow Russia to be totally humiliated and lash out with deadlier weapons, and we must avoid open war with them. The line is becoming very blurred between just providing material support vs becoming a belligerent. We should push, push for Ukraine's victory, but we can't escalate too far. Then theres the humanitarian crisis. At what point are lives lost more important than our diplomatic goals? I don't have the answers, the whole situation is just fraught with risk its difficult to navigate.
I've got great respect for Niall and Victor, but I don't understand they're position. When has diplomacy ever been effective with a man like Putin? How is giving weapons to a country at war escalation? Short of using nukes, what else can Russia do, invade harder? And so what if for the war increases with the Russian people. They're already pulling 60 year old tanks out of storage, what are the going to fight with? All of the men in the discussion are far more knowledgeable than I am, but some of this is just common sense. Russia was poor before the war and this war will only make them poorer. I wish a diplomatic solution could be found, but I think if that were possible the war might not have happened in the first place.
But Ukraine was promised protection if they gave up nukes.it is important to help Ukraine as much as possible.
33.50....he has nothing to lose!!! He's old and on his way out. He does not care how many he takes with him
Good Lord, I mean to spell akimai, which means smart in Hawaiian!
Loving HR.
The grand strategy here is to provide Ukraine sufficient weapons to maintain a kill ratio of 10:1 against the Russian and tire a sick old man (Putin) out one conscript life at a time. When Russia is willing to come to the table with some offer that is realistic to the tactical situation at the time, should Ukraine be as wedded to unreality as the Kremlin, then is the time to lean on Ukraine. "Let the Ukrainians decide" is a realistic approach, given the intelligence debacle, east and west, concerning their competence and will.
I don't think Putin is going to use nuclear weapons, but that is the force where the resources have gone. The last I heard he had his small children stashed in Switzerland, so he's planned for the possibility. It would be interesting to know where his older daughters and grandchildren are.
A lot of BS on the Ukrainian conflict as usual. Seems Americans that are vere knowledgeable on domestics issiues, lack knowledge about Eastern European issiues. I would say it's a language barrier. I saw somewhere that US has 15 of the top 20 universities. That is just a bias list towards English speaking schools. Chinese and Russian universities(or simular) are in reality better due to the fact of Americans student party to much! Have them learn Russian and Chinese instead! And people in USA in general has absolutely no interest in foreing affairs. Those are only used to create fake foes to steer the attention away from domestic problems. Biden is just the last in a long line of President using that to his "advantage".
HR is bang on again, couldnt agree more. Not one inch to Russia. How could we live in a world that negotiates with VP?
The only expert on this topic is Donald Trump. What are his success in brinkmanship. 100% success.
The next 2024 US presidential election will favor a more centrist candidate.
God bless H.R.! Greatest respect!
Draft HR McMaster for prez in 2024!!!
Putin opened himself up to humiliation by engaging in this conflict.
Ukraine can feed the world only the rest of us will starve. They have both POL supplies and refineries to make all the fertilizer they need. Where we the rest of the world do not and can't. Without War mobilization. And what will happen when Ukraine shows that it still has a few nuclear artillery shells? And we've missed the discussion of status of forces agreements that we should have had agreed to before we left, either Iraq or Afghanistan. A major failure on our part..
I suspect that history will prove Niall wrong and HR right. Let this be a lesson in smart people going outside their competence and to add to the insult, wholesale disagreeing with the ONE person with competence.
McMaster's is the only person making sense here.