10 BILLION Reasons NO ONE Can Catch Tesla AI!
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- Опубликовано: 28 апр 2024
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Развлечения
Some perspective, Apple recently canceled their self driving car project after allegedly spending more than $10 billion.
Probably to stop Elon making a Tesla phone. 😂
That was over 10 years 2014 to 2024.
Imagine thinking they can catch Usain Bolt who started running 2 years ago and just never stopped, while they are just getting their shoes tied.
You could, if that race was through a overgrown and unexplored jungle where leaders need to make way through it at a slow 🐌 snail pace. Easy to do when you know it's possible at all.
actually Mercedes did just that.
Imagine thinking 10 billion is Usain Bolt & not some runner from North Korea
@@clarazegarelli5861 No, Mercedes released a cute little demo that only works on their high-end cars, up to 45 mph in perfect weather and with a lead car within 100 feet (won’t activate on empty freeways or tunnels, or in rain). And since it only works on roads that were pre-scanned, only works on a few highways in Nevada and California - Teslas work EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENT. Again, Usain Bolt is so fast you confused him lapping everyone 86 times with them being close. Mercedes has nothing remotely close to Teslas tech. If you think they do, post a video of a customer car making turns through a city and reacting to traffic control. Not happening.
@@rickkay9548 was good enough to convince California regulators to give them Level 3 certification. Tesla has been working for years in self driving and has only level 2 approved. doesnt have level 3 in any part of the world. but MB has recently pass Level 3 certifications in California and had for a while in many countries... Tesla is not in good shape. they have lost the edge, we wont see Tesla Robo taxis for years (may be in a controlled environment or city like last vegas), they models are alredy old, (the S is 10 yo), quality is not good, and w/o self driving is doomed
I used to think this way too, but the data show that there are more advances in other car manufacturers. For instance Mercedes Benz got Level 3 approval in California, while Tesla is still in Level 2. I think there is a problem with IA that it is call overfitting. if this is the case, the one edge Tesla had is in danger. because the cars themselves are not even close to the quality of a BMW or a Mercedes.
Thank you… overfitting will always be a serious issue in neural networks. And human code will always use less processing power and be more simple and stable than a neural network.
The level 3 from Mercedes is a gimmick😅 .It's only applicable in certain conditions and at certain parts of roads.If any of the many criteria is not met it won't work.Guess what most of those criteria can't always all be met in daily drives everywhere
@@15Stratos I agree has its limitations. but if you drive in LA just to say, those conditions are met exactly when you needed the most. in bad traffic. just sit down and relax, no need to pay attention to the road. Anyhow, the point is, many companies are thriving to have some sort of self driving. this is good for the consumers and bad for Tesla it has hard competition. to me has lost the edge. You have companies like Xiomi coming into play, and with vehicles that look more modern.
The race is on. Exciting times.
No. The race is over. The competition just does not know.
@@juliewow4504 nobody wants an ev or self driving car lol people just want simple affordable easily repairable/reliable/transportation even a mitsubishi mirage is better designed than a tesla. tesla cannot even design a door handle that functions muchless anything else.
@@billybobbob3003 thank you for declaring so vociferously that absolutely no one on planet earth want EV. I would like to see the statistic that you use to be so public about this. Please do not use the facts that reside in your underwear. Like you know real unbiased FACTS from the real world. I will occupy myself with house chores in the mean time.
imagine all those old fat duffers walking around 3 hole of intense golf Before they give up and kick off.
@@billybobbob3003 i would love selfdriving.. game changer.. .imagine instead of beeing in an airport 2 hours before flight, going through TSA etc. just napping or working in your car from you door steps. Or imagine, the cost savings on delivering goods. But agree with the last part, tesla is not the only one (thanks god, the more working in this tech the better). Agree with the OP, exciting times in deed.
@@clarazegarelli5861 i mean its cool, but you gotta be stupid to put your life on the line relying on some machine.
Only 10 billion??????. LOL!!!! You do good narrative videos on how Tesla is doing.
Thanks for this video. Take care.
Thank you very much sir for everything
Spot on! Excellent video
As Tesla builds a dozen Exaflop Dojo's (ten cabinets) for itself, it could sell them as a unit to others (or lease them or their compute as a service). Now is the time to exploit the visual processing power advantage -- while everyone else started from the language input end of the AI problem. Dojo v2.0 should be visual plus language... true Large Multi-Modal Models (LM^3)
What advantage?
They won't sell the compute because they have Optimus to train.
😂😂😂 Optimus is 100% pre programmed & remote controlled buddy.
You don't really still think it's doing anything other than that after it's been debunked to death?
OK so compute hockey stick aside, what measures the quality of scenarios covered and inputs for training ? Miles and accident rates, good to be able to see that - maybe also injury related accidents... defuse the FUD with data...
Tesla has been measuring driving behavior for some time. They have also ther own insurance. And cars are working as "search engine", like "give me all Stop sign situations from grade A++ driver"
Very good analysis as always 👍
someone else can do the data centers but how could they get the installed base of ai cars to perfect it.
Sadly, I had shares in Arrival. It always frustrated me that they were spending money and time on autonomous driving while they still didn’t have any vehicles in production. Really, they should have just focused on getting something like the delivery van out the door and then just purchased FSD from Tesla. I really wanted to see them succeed (and thought they could do it) with their small manufacturing approach for low(er) volume vehicles, but now they are effectively gone.
I am a long-term investor, so I didn't care the stock was down and took advantage to buy more TSLA. But, did we finally see the stock turn the corner to explosive growth? Are we going to see $350-500 share price, this year?
I think FSD will have a lower accident rate than the average human by the end of summer. The potential of FSD, and that it's finally "happening", is going to dawn on Wall Street pretty quick. Plus they'll announce a deal with a major OEM very soon.
@@taylorc2542 Yes, one would have to imagine Ford will be the first, like with NACS. FSD with human supervision is already 5X safer than the average US driver, without it. Now, full autonomy clearly isn't there yet, but it won't be long.
No chance in hell. Sell all of it. Read the room
@@taylorc2542they all worked it out a long time ago FSD is a scam mate. You should work it out too
@@mervstash3692 Read what room, genius? Ya, world's #1 selling car, 50%+ CAGR in energy business, leader in humanoid robots, FSD close to being solved and robo-taxis awakening soon, accelerated delivery of a mass market small car, Cybertruck ramping incredibly fast, and Kim K. showing off her CT to 350M followers on the gram. Tesla is in terrible trouble.
Musk is a skilled "Getting to Yes" negotiator.
When Musk enters a negotiation he knows what is walking away BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) is.
So, when negotiating with battery suppliers he has his own in house 4680s.
When negotiating with NVidia he has his Dojo.
Although Musk has told us that Dojo can run PyTorch it would be interesting to find out
what the instruction set architecture (ISA) of Dojo is? (assuming that DOJO doesn't implement NVidia's CUDA instructions).
Would speculate that the inda plan was also a part of a negotiation to get the china deal. It's still war/undefined border between them
@DrKnowitallKnows If Tesla is utilizing the footage from their fleet for training, wouldn't it then be reasonable to conclude that driving performance will inherently be limited to the performance of the fleet? The best that FSD will be able to accomplish without another paradigm shift is matching the best human drivers. And that assumes that they've got an amazing pipeline for curating the training footage from only the best drivers. And a follow-up question would necessarily be, "Do the best drivers encounter enough real-world scenarios for proper extrapolation of driving decisions?" Asking for a friend...
Tesla is monitoring the drivers for a long time. Remember the start of FSD, just perfect driver could join. And you could lose the FSD, if your score went down.
All the time, they know how to filter the best training Videos&Data. Otherwise, we could never see the 12.x capabilitys. I think FSD 13 for US is already done. Now, they focus on good drivers in the rest of the world to finish 13 as an AI masterpiece. No other OEM can collect training data, with the fleet as search engine like Tesla. Chinese OEM are in lack of data outside of china. And now, since ChatGPT everebody know that you need trillions of training data.
Back to your question, it's already done. They traind with the best drivers. That is the root of FSD. You can see it in FSD12, how politely the car gives other cars needed space.
If they train their 12.x FSD, it is now with training Videos from all over the World. So, they need this compute. And now imagine that the GPS is a part of this training. Would be so cool to have an "extract" to analyse the driving behavior. Would be a great spiderweb over the World, if you compare simmilar regions.
Love your channel
Oh, wait. If Optimus FSW will be trained in this way, every local sociological behavior will be trained. Like now, there will be a FSW version 11x and for perfektion in interpersonal behavior they need data from all over the World. Optimus FSW 12x, 99$mo...like now FSD. And at the last trainings it becomes the FS, Full Self....{AGI}
Maybe, if any of that were based in reality.
It’s not trained with input from Europe, that’s part of the world.
@@mervstash3692this is the way. Reality will bring the future...or the future will bring reality.
@@tatata1543who mentioned Europe here? Training data are collected since ages in Europe
FSD / robotaxi is just the beginning, the first app. Optimus training will be another. Monitoring security video for crimes or security violations in process will be another. There are millions of security cameras installed, but they are mostly not monitored, or monitored well enough. They are mostly used for recording for after the crime has been committed review for evidence. People will pay for 24/7 active monitoring and instant alerts.
Why can't they use Cloud services instead of buying the chips?
No one in the world has the capacity for that level of compute. That's why they had to build their own.
I think likely most of the 10 billion is for China due to the Chinese government restrictions that necessitate a separate system due to national security concerns.
$10 billion is 1.25 million $8,000/ea subscribers.
Im pretty sure you coult do it faster than tesla becouse they probably did it as envirement friendly as possible these data centers take energy like city entire city complexes
Agreed it will be challenging for anyone to catch up.. if they play the same game. That’s not how disruptions work. It will take a disruption to unseat Tesla’s lead, we can agree on that. But people with the view that “nobody can catch up” are always caught off guard by some random startup that found a better way.
If wr just think of the possible demand of realy affordable end2end transportation...there is enormous space for other robotaxis in this market. And then think of Semi, robo container taxis are coming. Trains will slowly disappear... what a new market. Tesla FSD becomes the new TransportationOS, not forever, but than comes terraforming with robots on Mars and mining on asteroids. And just a tiny share of these transportation market......
Spending money efficiently is only part of the insurmountable problem . . where is the competition getting the talent, it's not available.
There are talents also, especially those big companies who can afford the salaries, but they just don't have the Data that Tesla have.
Number of processors or compute operations is a very crude measure of AI training volume. Presumably, some AI training systems can achieve ten or a hundred times as much training with the same volume of compute measured this way just as an N log N sorting algorithm can sort far more numbers than an N^2 algorithm in the same time. Assuming that Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else assumes that no one else can train qualitatively better rather than simply throwing the same tonnage of CPUs at the problem.
It isn't just the number of GPU's. Tesla is the ONLY company with TONS of visual driving Data. Waymo and few others are NOT EVEN CLOSE Also, Tesla is continuing to pull ahead of others on Data, and maybe the Number of Hardwares for Processing the data.
@@1flash3571 Time will tell.
And Tesla was so bold with the early Beta release. I'm from Germany, here are heads exploding all the time, if they think about an unfinished software is legally in a car. So, can't imagine that an old OEM will rollout anything to train data that fast and with a community thats tolerate the beta software dev. Just think how they act today. Only in china it could be, but i think they are smart enough to license FSD. They are already up to the next race 🤖
Your hypothsis is incorrect - it's more of a timing issue. Things that cost $1B to compute 10 years ago can likely be done in $1m today. Probably less. So, if some companies are willing to wait 5 years, the cost would likely be substentially lower. The issue is will they survive the wait and how will they source the data (though if they have 5 years, they can theoretically get the data by then if the equip cars with cameras in the next 2-3 years). Bottom line, with tech it's more of a timing issue than a $ issue. Those who can (or think they can) wait, would be able to do it much cheaper. But can they wait?
The biggest difference is the target. OEMs want the business usual, as a car manufacturers with a planned obsolescence. Every 6 year's new models. And a whole ecosystem around.
Tesla has the CO2 level as a target. They are manufacturing extremely efficient in such an unseen and fast way that manufacturing is becoming a monstrosity skill of them.
Tesla is an AI company with production perfektion. The OEM are stuck in their car builder narrative.
Tesla can build robotaxis that will last for 40 years. And that would not harm their businesses.
Think about how owning a car will get exotic in 10 years. The OEM could only go full into AI ....but how to get the right people. VW tried it with money(3.5 bill €) and failed, it was just the normal BEVcar OS and not AI. You need much more than compute
I found difficult to watch the video after I read 10 billion reasons no one can catch tesla AI
Compute ability is rocketing, Musk says 10x every 9 months.
Anyone a bit behind Tesla can build equivalent for 10% of cost - just a bit late.
Does this matter? Tesla doesn’t have Cybervan ready for market yet.
Start of Robotaxis will be slow, incremental, city-by-city.
China could easily catch up - except they are barred from latest-generation chips, can’t build massive Blackwell / H100 training centres.
It’s an unfair battle.
Elon is playing 4d chess while everyone else is playing marbels. Oooohhhh , shiny marbels.😅
Well, I'm fairly certain that Tesla is not spending $10B in 2024 alone . That's just the typical time compression in Elon's statements. 40,000 H100's even at NVidia's $40K/ea pricing is $1.6B and that's the majority of the cost, not the data center or even the storage component or electricity cost. Not in a 1-year time-frame anyway. $10B on AI to-date is the more likely reality. But I do think Tesla is accelerating their AI spend now that they have infrastructure that works.
I wouldn't worry about Dojo-v-H100-v-other compute resources (AMD, etc...). Those are just optimizations. And we aren't talking multi-hundred-percent efficiency improvements here... we're talking 10%, 20%... numbers like that, on each successive generation.
I doubt Elon is happy about NVidia's ridiculous 1000%+ profit margins on a chip that probably costs them only around $300 to make. Hence why Google, Amazon, Tesla, Apple, Facebook, etc... all want to have a go at making their own training and inference chips.
-Matt
Imagine someone discovering how to algorithmically train their AI on the data level close to what a human needs to learn to drive. They would need far less resources and perhaps much less time and make tesla's AI investment utterly moot.. Evolitiion did it randomly, I'm sure some bright eyed human will grok a much better way soon....
And this future someone needs perfect skilled AI experts and a fast prototype to production pipeline to catch up in the robotaxi market. Meanwhile Tesla generates a ridiculously big cashflow, and all billions invest in FSD are 🥜
Those that let their political leanings cloud their decision-making are going to miss out.
Watching FSD 12 videos as it gets smoother & and smoother, you can see why Elon has gone ALL IN.
If you let your political bias take over and miss this boat...
Ive done my share of cruises and its a combination of funny & sad when the boat is pulling away from the dock and you see people running only to realize that they missed the boat by not heeding the warnings.
This race is a marathon.
There is about a mile left.
Some people snuck into the race at mile 25 after Tesla passed them.
These companies get to start with all Tesla's published learnings...
They don't need to solve the problem - they need to put a wrapper around the general solution that will become available about 2 years after Tesla releases theirs.
But they need 11 billion to replace a 10 cent rain sensor 🤭
Have you guys seen the roads in China? It's not very organized like in the US...and a lot motorbikes that don't follow rules.
Everyone noticed that Musk doesn't talk about Dojo anymore?
Because it's not state of the art, so it's the inferior option to just buying H100s from NVidia.
Similarly, Nvidia amongst others could create advanced simulation worlds for their training, or could just go about it in a superior or more efficient way.
Just like Optimus, the AI world could very quickly catch up and surprise Tesla - rather than brute driving miles, in-world AI could advance differently from expected.
He has been quiet on it. If it is inferior, he has pivoted quickly. Something other companies don't seem to have in DNA. They can't seem to let go and move on in timely manner.
They can catch up with technology. But can they scale up like tesla?? That's where tesla gonna win. They can manufactur better than anyone else.
Hard disagree.
If ChatGPT were to disappear today it would take less than a year for other to catch up and would need a tiny fraction of the budget.
Elon already said it a while ago, ultimately FSD will be like a smartphone, will cost 200$ and will be everywhere. That's how tech evolve. Tesla will have the advantage only for a year or two. The more they charge the faster the competition will come.
What is hard to replicate is the manufacturing and the company culture.
Trump needs money. Send your money to Trump, he is a billionaire.
Money alone doesn't lead to great products, I think this is one of the biggest fallacies in business. The future isn't guaranteed, at all. Elon is just trying to intimidate, which to be fair, that's his job as CEO.
That's not how tech works
And you believe everything Elon says?
100%
Electric cars at a profit.
Best selling car on Earth.
Sends US astronauts to ISS, soon to the moon, then Mars.
Re-usable rockets.
Paraplegics to use computers, next blind people to see.
Yourself?
It's not even a drop in the ocean compared to the investment other companies are making. Like actual tech companies. Not a car maker pretending to be a tech company.
Re your "head start" analogy...... Tesla had a decade long head start on being first to market in the EV industry. How is that race going? F'n horrible. The company is in a nose dive
🤣 how is the race going? Tell me, who is also on track? Who makes a profit with EVs? 😂not a tech company? No for sure, it's magic... or how would you describe tech?
@yoonar mate there are dozens of EV makers now. All making far superior EVs than the 10 year old Tesla's.
There are also companies doing far better with autonomous driving.
The robot is not even in the same league as their competitors.
The Semi was a fail & quietly dropped in the night. Cybertruck was a collosal fail.
He just killed the supercharger team.
It's death by 1000 razorcuts. If you can't see that, then all the best to you mate.
And Tesla doesn't make profit. Are you kidding? They just fired thousands of staff. That spells huge debt.
Catch them? They've already surpassed him.
😂😂😂😂
If that were true……why are they all flocking to the tesla superchargers??? Are you for real?
I hate ev, but I would buy a tesla any day over all other chino ev, and I'm a chino
@@Cocoatreat Why not? Its a government subsidzied charger, just helps with EV adoption having more "open source" chargers.
@@dynomotivedyno9194 and it makes Tesla even more money!! I have a Tesla and none of the others compare! Tesla was built by tech guys! And they are still learning! This is why their software is the best! My partner at work drove my Tesla once! He then sold his truck & Mercedes and ordered one for himself the same day!! He also bought the ford Mach E. When his Tesla came, he gave it to his wife!
One of my coworkers who owned a Tesla, bought a rivian! He drove it for a year. I haven’t seen it since! He got another Tesla!
Microsoft and Facebook are miles ahead. Tesla are behind.
How do you figure?
Tell me you don't know about FSD without telling me
Dude, you got to cut down on those videos. 😴
BYD R&D in 2023: $5.5 Billion
Tesla R&D in 2023: $4 Billion
What makes you so sure Tesla is so much in front?
I'm not sure how much Tesla is ahead, but will say that R and D spend is not a good measurement of accomplishment.
Tesla needs 10 times less to do 10 times more. PERIOD. Unless you believe earth is flat. If so, I cannot help you, sorry for you and your familly
Because BYD has not pursued FSD with the endless drive of Musk ...
“We think self-driving tech that’s fully separated from humans is very, very far away, and basically impossible, Li Yunfei, one of BYD’s spokespeople April 2023
BYD is playing catch up they are amazing and should be treated lightly, however they are a Chinse company and the USA currently blocks the most powerful chips entering China
@@jbbuzzable 💯 See Ford, GM etc
More money becomes waste. Ever heard of deminishing return? Tesla is known to be best at capital utilization. Meaning getting the most bang for the cost. Same with SpaceX.
It's not worth chasing it. Tesla is running on a dead-end track.
Yeah and that’s where the finish-line is. Great point!
Yet when I click the right thumb wheel on my Y and say
"Turn on headlights"
The car says "Command not recognized"
Give me a break -
or when I want to see a 360 degree top-down view of my parking space
I get a cartoon that doesn't show crushed glass right in front of the right tire
and not the real world
Give me a break -
Computing power means little if it isn't used in your car...
I would be talking to Tesla about your issues.
@@jbbuzzable I do - here on RUclips channels - they know of me...
@@noleftturns Talk to them directly so 1000s of RUclips watchers don't have to hear your complaints.
Human sometimes don't understand or hear well with each other. But your one instance is definitive. Taking about bias confirmation.
@@juliahello6673 I'm just a retired aerospace engineer with a lot of time on my hands
and a Model Y that has a lot of problems and is worth 1/3 of what I paid for it
2 years ago.
I believe others should hear the truth, not Elon's truth.
Stop with the hype !!! We have a Model Y running 12.3 something , its great for sure , but last week it took a left onto a oneway street in Bennington NE, the wrong fn way.. Sorry it’s no where near 100%, 100% is whats needed. Endless edge cases to figure out. Till then its a safety system. As for AI compute I believe Meta has 3-4X the raw power of Tesla, one would guess they are working on some version of FSD also, this is not Tesla alone in a vacuum. Musk said a cheaper car is fast tracked for 2025, sure it is every single product launch has been vastly delayed. Musk said on 8-8 he will show a new robo taxi,,, great a product they cant sell. Musk said FSD is coming to china. Musk has said a lot lately to pump the stock and with ZERO actual products for sale the lemmings have bought into the hype. Any drive Any, with an intervention is a 100% fail, what the hell do you do in a robo taxi with no steering wheel when its stuck??! How do you clean the cameras??? We get FSD is limited or unavailable very often in the winter as the cameras get dirty. Is the passenger expected to get out in the middle of the street and clean them. FSD is basically worthless on iced over roads, so 6-7 days out of the year we simply stay home, sorry boss cant come in today my car cant drive me.
Everyone just ignores these issues, hard to ignore when the car will literally stop driving. Is tesla going to have thousands of responders ready to remotely pilot the robo taxis. Have not seen a single job posting for those positions yet.
You would think Dr know it all would have concrete answers for these issues!!!
Oo and the super efficient unboxed build method, “ the one that makes the next gen CHEAPER car work” , just ignore all those cool videos and charts, we are just slapping it together on a modified line, seriously, lemmings just ignore that also.
Tesla is one stupid Musk tweet away from a huge down turn. It will happen.
Carry an Optimus robot in the back seat. It will fix all of your problems.
What do you do when your dishwasher breaks?
Imagine people are wising up to the entire "non polluting" EV scam. Tires alone are a no for me. Lithium mines are another. Build quality matters, but not to everyone. Resale value for EV's is a joke. Have a nice day.