Why Gotham's Greenblatt Likes 'Gushing' Cash-Flow Stocks
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- Опубликовано: 28 окт 2018
- Oct.29 -- Joel Greenblatt, co-chief investment officer and managing principal at Gotham Asset Management, discusses how the hedge fund evaluates targeted equities as part of its investment strategy. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close."
Seems like the reporter didn't quite have a good grasp about how Greenblatt sees value investing
Excellent. The Interviewer asked some pretty good questions based on knowledge. But I wish Greenblatt would slow down! "4 to 6" kept coming out as "46". Confused the heck out of me till the penny dropped.
This held up well. At about the 8 minute mark he says the Russell is toward the 94th percentile expensive and should be about flat over the next four years. Et voilà. The S&P has done better than he predicted, but either earnings have developed better or the S&P is still expensive and needs to come down or trend sideways for longer.
You have to assume Greenblatt is one of the brightest minds in the business, so probably knows what he's talking about. Market had dropped 10% from 9-20-18 to 10-29-18 (when this was filmed), and dropped another 10% by 12-24-18, so a total of 20%. So I understood him to say we could expect to see gains of 10% a year going forward. From the low on 12-24-18, the market gained 37% over the next 12 months. I wonder if he saw that coming? You also hear the 2019 gain was 29%. Impressive numbers, right? But from the high on 9-20-18 to today (2-11-20) the gain is only 14%. Despite the phenomenal gains of the last 14 months, over the last 17 months (since 9-20-18) the gain is only 14%, a CAGR of.... 9.8%. He probably knows that 10% gain per year is a safe prediction.
Joel and Ray dalio. Probably the best minds in the business
@@the.meat.man. Howard Marks is good, I like Peter Lynch, lots of great advice
Joel was right. Look at the market cratering this year after the fed raised interest rates.
Will you stop interrupting and let him talk!
Yeah, he's ruining the interview with that.
Spotted Steve Greenblatt brother in photography class
Did he just markets markets are up 46% in the next year following a correction? Or 4 to 6%? Look at around 1 minute mark.
J Lee 4 to 6%
I wish Greenblatt would slow down! "4 to 6" kept coming out as "46". Confused the heck out of me till the penny dropped.
He says 4 to 6 percent multiple times.
The long/short equity portfolio managers are getting nervous.
Good job
What I don't get is how Buffett, Greenblatt and others value stocks based on Cash flows. It's so difficult to predict earnings, let alone cash flows which include deductions for capex. Of course these guys do it successfully, but I think for the average non-professional investor, it would be more suitable to base investment on current and past earnings and asset valuations. You can then study some future expectations, but only to determine how the company's performance can differ from the past. And doing this gives you a margin of safety and since you've already taken an average of earnings based on a good number of years and buy your stocks according to a large margin of safety based on those averages, even if in the unlikely but unfortunate event of earnings over the next 5 years falling dramatically, you still don't lose money. That's what Ben Graham taught. Stick to that, it's more successful over time.
Value based on cash flows can also be determined and more clear via the companies stated and actual plans. There are companies that have stated and done what they've said in terms of reducing capital expenditures, increasing cashflow to be returned to shareholders. Recent example occurs now during the trade spat between the U.S and China. Companies in some industries due to either increased over supply in an industry requiring reduction or trade uncertainty.
Actually they understand the whole business as they are running them or they will be running them, and then they combine it with the underlying economics of the business bolstered by the capability of management.
And doing that, I guess you should have pretty good sense of what future will look like for some industries which you understand, ofcourse not all.
There is always a long term value of the business, and when it gets distorted by the price they make the purchase.
And main thing, they never use any of the excel, or any kind of ML for the valuation purposes, and valuation should not be complex if you do understand the business really well.
stated simply but very hard to realize - they buy strong castle with a wide & deep moat overseen by an honest Lord
My favorite investor
The market just ripped from the time of this video, and then yes, finally it got hit by the pandemic. If you didn't get all out in March 2020 because then we went on the rip of the century until November 22nd 2021.
IMHO the bottom went in mid-June 2022.
Over my head..but sounds genius😅
you can learn, my friend. Just keep watching these old people talk.
Stocks have only been cheaper 1/4th the time as of now, so the run of price is in the high 3/4, meaning most likely it could run out of ceiling room to run higher
Re-Verse psychology ?
'he was leading and wanted a "buy value"
Interviewer desires his money
Greenblatt desires his hair 😆
Then in 2025, Erik Schatzker will be the same as Greenblatt, at least in the hair department.
@wall_street_trapper brought me here from ig.
Over the past 10 years, his GARIX, total return fund, has underperformed a Vanguard Total market index by a large margin. And you have to pay his fees on top. We will forever see a stream of bright, well-dressed young men, telling us they have a method, a formula, a disciplined system, to outperform the market. Well, some will. Most will not. You can place your money on any horse you choose, and hope you have made a good choice. Or you you can invest in a low-cost, broadly based index fee and earn what the market returns. Good luck, all!
From 1991 macon Georgia
This dude worth 700 million but Kanye a rapper is worth 3.5 billion with no ivy league education wth?
Dumb fuckin luck
April 2020 here saying.... L O L
30% suicide drop. lol covid 19
Lol Joel Greenblatt buys in lows lol
Dec 2021 LOL
How annoying is the host keeps talking over Joel
I’m glad the interviewer knows more than the guest.
😂🤣