Thanks so much for such a thorough discussion. You show excellent form in describing the named concepts in terms that neither insult our intelligence nor fly over our heads at 30,000 feet.
Hi Andrew - I appreciate your input. It's always a race between how much detail to go into versus watching the clock. An hour long video is a lot to ask of folks, but everyone seems to like it. When in doubt, you can always use the chapter function to just find the sections you are interested in. The format is pretty much the same each week. Thanks again!
Hi Nate - Yes - light winds in the afternoon is great. but I think we're gonna be begging for some rideable surf fairly soon. The NPac looks very sleepy. Hope you're doing well otherwise!
Thank you! Having some sporadic rain right now in San Diego. Nothing crazy but it is good to finally get some meaningful precipitation. Hoping for more soon!
Hi Pierre - Thanks so much for your donation. And thanks for the report. It's always good to get real time feedback from people where the action is. Glad you at least got some light rain. For sure - more to come.
Aloha Mark, great forecast thanks so much. It’s a rainy day here in Hawaii and the surf is small, but I hope in the next few days it picks up. Have a great week and I will talk to you soon
You are most welcome John. Thanks for your report. I always like hearing what's going on in your slice of paradise! It's going flat here, but at least there's the opportunity for snow.
@@Stormsurf001 thanks so much Mark, I think that there should be a swell coming the weekend which s only a few days away, but now the waves are so small.
Excellent analysis Mark, thank you! Awesome to see this persistent rex block ridge in the West break down. We are about 60-70% of normal snowpack year to date in the Washington Cascades so an active phase of the MJO is a welcome sign of things to come. It's been fascinating watching the incongruity and variability in run-to-run differences between the GFS and ECMWF from day to day here. With a pattern change coming and with the MJO in flux, I'm sure it's only to be expected. Should be a fun February weather wise on the West Coast. Have a great week!
Hi Harrison - Ah - you too are down the waeather rabbit hole! Always great to hear from someone in the know. I didn't realize the PNW was at 60% of normal snowpack now. You all where getting hammered in Dec, but this last dry phase has taken a bite out of all that as it has down here. Anyway, fingers crossed for a return of rain and snow. We need it!
Yes we got some good rain today Sunday Huntington Beach. It started about noon time and came down pretty hard for awhile. Off and mostly on, still raining 12 midnight. Surf small and blown.. 12:59
Hi Henry - Thanks so much for the report! Was wondering exactly what was going on in Southern CA. Glad you finally got a little bit of moisture. And more is forecast a week out.
Hi Mark, a little more action around these parts but the gap winds again knocking it down a peg. Again I think pairing up the weekly high seas forecast with swell period forecast would go a long way into not only showing where the swell from last weeks hindcast is now but also where the bulk of swell is headed in the forecast storms and what periods are expected to be produced from them. Using this combo has been of great use to me to see swells easily written off otherwise. Looking like april time going to be solid if the long range MJO models are accurate, which would be normal for these parts. Looking forward to it. Thanks again see you next week.🤙
Hi Sivdog - oh shoot, I literally wrote a note to myself after last weeks video and your comment to show the period chart, and then promptly forgot to read the note before producing this weeks video. I'll stick it more prominently on my desk for this coming weeks video. It is a great suggestion! So sorry. And at some point I'm going to build a period hindcast chart. Thanks again for your suggestion (and reminder).
Hi Robert - Exactly! The jet stream pushes across the Pacific, and then across the US mainland and into the Atlantic, driving storm west to east on the jetstream track. Storms that penetrate the US West coast can continue to circulate as they cross the American Continent. For sure they loose energy and power, but then that remnant energy will hit the Atlantic seaboard and become reenergized as it starts absorbing energy from the warm Atlantic. Now not every storm can survive the journey east, but some do. It depends on what the jetstream is doing as it crosses the US. Hope that helps.
Hi Matt - That is great news! Bring on the rainfall to help moisten the ground a little! And it looks like a better/wetter pattern is setting up a week out.
Hi Mark, thanks as always for the forecast. I have been enjoying the hi-res swell models, and have an observation that has been more clear this season thanks to them. The southern hemisphere ice shelf has all but melted. I'm wondering if that has been the trend and the hi-res models are just making that easier to see or what? Also, how much does the ice impact storm and swell development in the region, i.e. Does more ice push storms farther north, aid in development, frequency, or swell size? I know it's peak season, not to mention, we did get that rare late season (mid November?) storm/swell, just somethings I've noticed and think about. Cheers~
Hi Bang Bang - Yeah I seem to not recall the ice melt being so obvious in past years. if I were to guess it is likely due to NOAA finding a way to 1) either depict the Antarctic Ice in higher resolution in the model or 2) The raw satellite data used to image the ice has been upgraded, allow a higher resolution visualization in the wave model. Either way, it's certainly is a lot more noticeable, which is always a good thing. More detail counts to me! To part 2 of your question, the smaller the ice shelf down south the greater the surface area for storms to blow winds upon, and to get traction, therefore generating swell. Of notice there is actually a tiny southern hemi swell pushing up towards Southern CA from a gale in the deep Southeast Pacific a few days ago and another stronger one is forecast starting Wed (1/29). I never recall seeing southern hemi swells being generated in Jan/Feb. The root cause of that is something to explore and debate in the future. And yes, we got that late Nov swell you mentioned too. Is Winter no longer winter anymore? ha ha! Anyways, great question! Thanks.
@jakemarlow8998 Hi Jake - I just noticed that thanks to your message. I'll dig deeper into it. All my servers are working fine so it must be NOAA related as you suggested.
Hi Kandace - Good question. You had previously mentioned (I think) that with this Modoki pattern one would expect a lot of backdoor fronts pushing down the US West Coast. And Yes, I would expect that to be the case. Maybe that is where we are finally headed now. It's just so hard to figure out what is actually happening. We're like part way in Modoki and part way in a regular La Nina pattern and the atmosphere is not responding clearly as one would figure it should. A head scratcher for sure.
Thanks for the heads up! I'll go back and watch it in a sec. Also, the year is now posted in the thumbnail..the intro image that also has the title of the video in it. I started posting those on June 11, 2023
Oh, and I see the date and year are in the title of the video..but you have to open the video to see it. I for sure see the problem when trying to view older videos
Just watched that video from Feb 2023. It's pretty funny watching those older videos. Production quality sure needed some help. Ha ha. I see what you're saying about things now being similar to back then. But....that was the start of the development of El Nino with major Kelvin Waves in flight. Unfortunately we're nowhere near that. We're just trying to get one Kelvin Wave going. But to your point, I do think we are poised to transition out of La Nina. Thanks for digging up that video. Good info!
Yeah - i saw yesterday and nearly had a heart attack. Now it's back to more healthier accumulations. But I suspect it's going to flop around a few more times before getting locked into a specific pattern. Fingers crossed.
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
Thanks so much for such a thorough discussion. You show excellent form in describing the named concepts in terms that neither insult our intelligence nor fly over our heads at 30,000 feet.
Hi Andrew - I appreciate your input. It's always a race between how much detail to go into versus watching the clock. An hour long video is a lot to ask of folks, but everyone seems to like it. When in doubt, you can always use the chapter function to just find the sections you are interested in. The format is pretty much the same each week. Thanks again!
What an incredible resource. Thank you, Mark!
Hi Rav4 - you are most welcome. We're here to serve. And thanks so much for your contribution!
Let's keep the light afternoon wind this week🤙🏾! Thanks as always Mark great report with the possible rain..
Hi Nate - Yes - light winds in the afternoon is great. but I think we're gonna be begging for some rideable surf fairly soon. The NPac looks very sleepy. Hope you're doing well otherwise!
Dawn Patrol comment! I was wondering when the new video was coming out. Great work as always, thank you
You are most welcome Angel! And yes - you are the first in the line up!
best forecasts out there, thanks!
Hi Colin - Thanks so much for your kind words! And many thanks for your contribution. It's appreciated.
Thank you! Having some sporadic rain right now in San Diego. Nothing crazy but it is good to finally get some meaningful precipitation. Hoping for more soon!
Hi Pierre - Thanks so much for your donation. And thanks for the report. It's always good to get real time feedback from people where the action is. Glad you at least got some light rain. For sure - more to come.
Aloha Mark, great forecast thanks so much. It’s a rainy day here in Hawaii and the surf is small, but I hope in the next few days it picks up. Have a great week and I will talk to you soon
You are most welcome John. Thanks for your report. I always like hearing what's going on in your slice of paradise! It's going flat here, but at least there's the opportunity for snow.
@@Stormsurf001 thanks so much Mark, I think that there should be a swell coming the weekend which s only a few days away, but now the waves are so small.
Excellent analysis Mark, thank you! Awesome to see this persistent rex block ridge in the West break down. We are about 60-70% of normal snowpack year to date in the Washington Cascades so an active phase of the MJO is a welcome sign of things to come. It's been fascinating watching the incongruity and variability in run-to-run differences between the GFS and ECMWF from day to day here. With a pattern change coming and with the MJO in flux, I'm sure it's only to be expected. Should be a fun February weather wise on the West Coast. Have a great week!
Hi Harrison - Ah - you too are down the waeather rabbit hole! Always great to hear from someone in the know. I didn't realize the PNW was at 60% of normal snowpack now. You all where getting hammered in Dec, but this last dry phase has taken a bite out of all that as it has down here. Anyway, fingers crossed for a return of rain and snow. We need it!
Thanks!
Hi Kim - Thanks so much for your contribution!
Thanks Mark!
Hi Tim - Hope you are doing well and thanks for the donation!
@ 🤙🏽 enjoying the rain. Finally ~
@@timkasten343 Yes - Finally some rain for Southern CA!
Yes we got some good rain today Sunday Huntington Beach. It started about noon time and came down pretty hard for awhile. Off and mostly on, still raining 12 midnight. Surf small and blown.. 12:59
Hi Henry - Thanks so much for the report! Was wondering exactly what was going on in Southern CA. Glad you finally got a little bit of moisture. And more is forecast a week out.
Hi Mark, a little more action around these parts but the gap winds again knocking it down a peg.
Again I think pairing up the weekly high seas forecast with swell period forecast would go a long way into not only showing where the swell from last weeks hindcast is now but also where the bulk of swell is headed in the forecast storms and what periods are expected to be produced from them. Using this combo has been of great use to me to see swells easily written off otherwise. Looking like april time going to be solid if the long range MJO models are accurate, which would be normal for these parts. Looking forward to it.
Thanks again see you next week.🤙
Hi Sivdog - oh shoot, I literally wrote a note to myself after last weeks video and your comment to show the period chart, and then promptly forgot to read the note before producing this weeks video. I'll stick it more prominently on my desk for this coming weeks video. It is a great suggestion! So sorry. And at some point I'm going to build a period hindcast chart. Thanks again for your suggestion (and reminder).
@@Stormsurf001no worries. It amazing you get that much information together on your videos as it is!😂
I was wondering what affects the storms on the East coast? Do the pacific storms move across and eventually become Atlantic storms?
Hi Robert - Exactly! The jet stream pushes across the Pacific, and then across the US mainland and into the Atlantic, driving storm west to east on the jetstream track. Storms that penetrate the US West coast can continue to circulate as they cross the American Continent. For sure they loose energy and power, but then that remnant energy will hit the Atlantic seaboard and become reenergized as it starts absorbing energy from the warm Atlantic. Now not every storm can survive the journey east, but some do. It depends on what the jetstream is doing as it crosses the US. Hope that helps.
We had downpours and hail in Ventura late this morning.
Hi Matt - That is great news! Bring on the rainfall to help moisten the ground a little! And it looks like a better/wetter pattern is setting up a week out.
Hi Mark, thanks as always for the forecast. I have been enjoying the hi-res swell models, and have an observation that has been more clear this season thanks to them. The southern hemisphere ice shelf has all but melted. I'm wondering if that has been the trend and the hi-res models are just making that easier to see or what? Also, how much does the ice impact storm and swell development in the region, i.e. Does more ice push storms farther north, aid in development, frequency, or swell size? I know it's peak season, not to mention, we did get that rare late season (mid November?) storm/swell, just somethings I've noticed and think about. Cheers~
Hi Bang Bang - Yeah I seem to not recall the ice melt being so obvious in past years. if I were to guess it is likely due to NOAA finding a way to 1) either depict the Antarctic Ice in higher resolution in the model or 2) The raw satellite data used to image the ice has been upgraded, allow a higher resolution visualization in the wave model. Either way, it's certainly is a lot more noticeable, which is always a good thing. More detail counts to me! To part 2 of your question, the smaller the ice shelf down south the greater the surface area for storms to blow winds upon, and to get traction, therefore generating swell. Of notice there is actually a tiny southern hemi swell pushing up towards Southern CA from a gale in the deep Southeast Pacific a few days ago and another stronger one is forecast starting Wed (1/29). I never recall seeing southern hemi swells being generated in Jan/Feb. The root cause of that is something to explore and debate in the future. And yes, we got that late Nov swell you mentioned too. Is Winter no longer winter anymore? ha ha! Anyways, great question! Thanks.
Thanks Mark! By the way, I noticed the altimetry has been silent for a while. Any idea when NOAA will get that back online?
@jakemarlow8998 Hi Jake - I just noticed that thanks to your message. I'll dig deeper into it. All my servers are working fine so it must be NOAA related as you suggested.
Hi Jake - I just checked and the Jason-3 data on NOAAs site is updating as expected. Something is messed up on my server. I will dig into it.
@ Awesome, thanks Mark!
Are you expecting the Triple-R ridge to finally set up further west in Modoki La Niña fashion?
Hi Kandace - Good question. You had previously mentioned (I think) that with this Modoki pattern one would expect a lot of backdoor fronts pushing down the US West Coast. And Yes, I would expect that to be the case. Maybe that is where we are finally headed now. It's just so hard to figure out what is actually happening. We're like part way in Modoki and part way in a regular La Nina pattern and the atmosphere is not responding clearly as one would figure it should. A head scratcher for sure.
I went back and watched the video from Feb 5, 2023. The patterns look similar, but a couple months behind where it was.
Also, it would be awesome if you could put the date in your titles or say the year in your intro please.
Thanks for the heads up! I'll go back and watch it in a sec. Also, the year is now posted in the thumbnail..the intro image that also has the title of the video in it. I started posting those on June 11, 2023
Oh, and I see the date and year are in the title of the video..but you have to open the video to see it. I for sure see the problem when trying to view older videos
Just watched that video from Feb 2023. It's pretty funny watching those older videos. Production quality sure needed some help. Ha ha. I see what you're saying about things now being similar to back then. But....that was the start of the development of El Nino with major Kelvin Waves in flight. Unfortunately we're nowhere near that. We're just trying to get one Kelvin Wave going. But to your point, I do think we are poised to transition out of La Nina. Thanks for digging up that video. Good info!
its actually raining right now in my part of los angeles
That is great to hear! Any rain is good rain at this point. And it looks like more to come.
Most Excellent ¿
Hi Ray - Thanks!
GFS now has Palisades at 2 inches for next 10 days
Yeah - i saw yesterday and nearly had a heart attack. Now it's back to more healthier accumulations. But I suspect it's going to flop around a few more times before getting locked into a specific pattern. Fingers crossed.
Thanks Mark!
Hi Tucker - thanks so much for your contribution! Always appreciated. And thanks for all your great surf video work! You're the best!
Thanks!
Thank YOU Our Predicament! Hope all is going well for you.
Thanks!
Hi Peter - Thanks so much!
Thanks!
Many thanks E Slate for your contribution! Hope you're doing well and getting some waves.
Thanks!
Wow Slade! That is a very generous contribution. Thanks so much I really appreciate it.