Thanks Wilderman! Was very unsure whether I wouldn't get a bunch of hate email from folks up there. So I'm trying to keep it real generic. Nothing related to any specific break. Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks Mark! New SoHemi filled in overnight down here in Baja. Looks like it might be a little bigger than the model had predicted. I think the Jason sat. did a pass over the storm and verified seas a bit larger than the model.
Hi Jake - Thanks so much for the report. That is good news indeed. Yes - I looked at the altimetry data and seas were 37 ft where the model suggested only 32-33 ft. The model has consistently been under-calling everything North and South. I'm wondering if this has anything to do with the explosive growth trend in hurricanes lately too, where they increase winds speed way faster than anything in the past. And maybe that has something to do with extra moisture in the upper atmosphere from the Tonga volcano. Just a guess though.
Hi Erik -Glad you liked it! Someone asked for more Pacific Northwest coverage a few weeks ago so I'm slowly working it into the mix. I'll keep using that buoy.
I've been watching your channel since before the "midoki el nino" of 2014 and I recall around that time the PDO turning positive. It's reflected on that chart where it appears strongly positive for a few years. Looking at the past, the positive phase seems to generally be shorter and more frequently interrupted. Why does the positive blip not count as a positive PDO? Are we married to the notion of a PDO phase lasting longer than an ENSO phase?
Great Question. Officially minor turns up or down in the PDO are reported by NOAA as just what they are, a turn in the PDO in the positive or negative direction. But it is the long term trend that really is the secret sauce of the PDO - The 20-30 year cycles, at least in my opinion. A 2-3 year turn in my mind doesn't reflect a long term trend. Instead it is just like what you indicated, a blip or transition mainly influenced by ENSO. And then the PDO typically returns to it's pre-ENSO state. I'm really trying to tease out the long term trend in the PDO because they are the foundation for how ENSO and the planets weather will react during those long term periods. And there are many scientists who also look at the PDO from a long term perspective, rather than a strict day to day sort of view. Either view is correct, it just depend what you're trying to do with the data. Good question again.
@@Stormsurf001 It is the least I can do. I have learned so much from your videos and look forward to them all week. The depth of information you provide while making it accessible to those of us who have no background in forecasting is incredible. Thank you!!
The graph at 56:00 shows PDO combined with ENSO? Just in case :) - Is it possible to subtract ENSO ? We would see the PDO cycles more clear.... I wouldn't be too much concerned about surfing. This long lasting 'Ocean heat wave' together with the massive antarctic sea ice loss *again!!* - is a bad bad sign for future climate. TBH - Germans usually don't worry about surf at all. We just don't surf :)) Thx for your detailed insights.
Hi VolkerEngels - I don't claim to be a PDO expert and the data is produced by NOAA so I don't even have access to the raw data to know how much of it is influenced by ENSO. But I hear what you are asking and think it is a good idea. If we did that it would make the PDO an index of water temp differences between the East and West Pacific. And that means it would be a reflection of pressure differences between those two areas. And that is exactly what I'm trying to understand, though it seems clear that higher pressure in the Pacific sets up with the cool Phase of the PDO and lower pressure with the warm phase. And even with the ENSO data included in the index, the net effects on storm production and surf production seem pretty clear. But I need to research more. I just found the main paper that describes the PDO here: www.researchgate.net/profile/Steven-Hare/publication/225139766_The_Pacific_Decadal_Oscillation/links/00b7d518012d91c1c3000000/The-Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation.pdf I think you're question has set me out on a long journey to try and figure it all out at a deeper level. Thanks!
@@Stormsurf001 Reading the paper (still:) Whow, thank you! Climate plays Punk now.... _"Atmospheric Rivers shifting polwards (6-10 degrees lat) due to climate change"_ Worldwide - (see Sahara) Imagine -'Pineapple Express' now arrives 500-1110 km further north. (1110km = 690 miles :))
Where are we? We’re F’d… Thanks for the further insight into the PDO, Mark! Jokes aside, this high pressure bias off our west coast is no joke. The oceans sitting on a ton of energy, but the atmosphere has more latent heat in it. Hot and dry will probably dominate until either the ocean has enough heat/energy to overcome it, or the atmosphere cools and lets it loose. Maybe that’s what the under sea volcano did a few years back for a short time. Eventually it will let loose, and it will probably be big. I just hope I’m still alive to see it at this rate :/.
Hi Evolution - First off, thanks so much for your contribution. They are always appreciated. And yes, we are kinda f'd for the time being. But to your point, I kinda temporarily forgot about the Tonga Volcano and it's effects on the atmosphere. It is for sure having some sort of an effect, though I don't think anyone really understands exactly what it is. Thanks for the reminder. And like you said, I suspect we will continue to stew for a little while longer, and then suddenly all that moisture in the upper atmosphere will clear out, and a significant change will set in. At least that's what I'm hoping for. If this is the new normal, we'll that would be sad on so many levels. So for now I'm right with you, it's just a temporary situation. Fingers crossed.
@@Stormsurf001 Potsdam Institute says _Honga Tonga has had a slight cooling trend over 2 years. Now its done._ Imagine the amount of water vapor released by the temp jump in the oceans around march 2023 - which last til now.
@@volkerengels5298 That seems to be exactly the case just seeing how the atmosphere has responded over the past 2 years (muting El Nino). And another source reported the same results: artsci.tamu.edu/news/2024/07/new-study-disputes-hunga-tonga-volcanos-role-in-2023-24-global-warm-up.html
In the pentad sea level anomalies graph, the NE section of the NPAC had pretty high (warm)anomalies. Could this help generate and feed NW storms coming into California?
Hi Will - Yes, anomalies are quite high there (off North Japan and the Kuril Islands) as are sea surface temp anomalies. The theory is that area is the center of the high pressure regime being brought on by La Nina and the negative PDO. In the center of high pressure there is little wind and clouds, exposing the oceans surface to more sun, raising temps in that area. And without the wind, there is no upwelling. So we end up with a very shallow area of warming waters. And theoretically cooler than normal temps should be setting up along the US West Coast. Though at the moment that is not evidenced on the charts. But my guess is as Winter sets up, and especially in Spring, the classic Negative PDO pattern will set up and SST anomalies will drop along the US West Coast and that ball of warmer water will quickly dissipate as a few winter storms move over that area. Guess we'll see.
HI Andy - Very good question. I havent been following the Texas monsoon pattern. But I know it was really dry for years leading up to the last El Nino. And according to the NOAA projections, temps should be warmer than normal this winter and rainfall less than normal. That is not a good sign. Same for where I live out west. Hoping the forecast is wrong, at least a little.
Hi Peter - Thanks so much for the report. Yeah, during La Nina the Atlantic and Indian Ocean pump. My guess is you're going to have a very active Winter. Hope you score! Us here in the West United States are going to not get a whole lot of surf unfortunately. Keep me posted if you can.
Hi Craig, I was gonna say from a snow perspective it seems like the start of the ski season keeps getting later and later as does the arrival of the first real winter rain in the SF Bay area . Purely anecdotal, but it just doesn't feel like it use to.
petey o is on drugs. the atmospheric silver type. anyway mark, the power tool gave me a boner this week. i dont know if you heard about our solar activity but the teleconnections sure showed the incoming energy and look at those cfs outlier forecasts. for me it clarifies the solar effect on our earthly battery basically were charged and the sphere will be buzzing soon. all the best uncle!
Hi Brendon - Yes, I've been monitoring Solar Cycle number 25. Certainly lots of strong solar flares pumping a lot of electromagnetic radiation our way. If nothing else the Auroras have been active, supposedly viewable as far south as North CA. I've not seen anything personally, but would like to. I'm real interested to see what if any effect it will have on the atmosphere. Guess we'll see!
“A break in the action for the entire planet” me- throws phone
Yeah I know. It's not good. Hopefully things will improve over the long term.
Thanks!
Thanks so much ODillard for your contribution. It is appreciated!
The PNW coverage is appreciated!
Thanks Wilderman! Was very unsure whether I wouldn't get a bunch of hate email from folks up there. So I'm trying to keep it real generic. Nothing related to any specific break. Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks Mark! New SoHemi filled in overnight down here in Baja. Looks like it might be a little bigger than the model had predicted. I think the Jason sat. did a pass over the storm and verified seas a bit larger than the model.
Hi Jake - Thanks so much for the report. That is good news indeed. Yes - I looked at the altimetry data and seas were 37 ft where the model suggested only 32-33 ft. The model has consistently been under-calling everything North and South. I'm wondering if this has anything to do with the explosive growth trend in hurricanes lately too, where they increase winds speed way faster than anything in the past. And maybe that has something to do with extra moisture in the upper atmosphere from the Tonga volcano. Just a guess though.
It was cool you started the video with the Grays Harbor buoy report.🤙
Hi Erik -Glad you liked it! Someone asked for more Pacific Northwest coverage a few weeks ago so I'm slowly working it into the mix. I'll keep using that buoy.
@@Stormsurf001 Awesome 👍
Thanks as always Mark🤙🏾 hope for those calm winds in the pm for a surf after work...hope you get a few🤙🏾🤙🏾
Hi Coach - You are most welcome. Seems like a fairly light wind regime setting up for the immediate future. Now all we need is swell!
I've been watching your channel since before the "midoki el nino" of 2014 and I recall around that time the PDO turning positive. It's reflected on that chart where it appears strongly positive for a few years. Looking at the past, the positive phase seems to generally be shorter and more frequently interrupted. Why does the positive blip not count as a positive PDO? Are we married to the notion of a PDO phase lasting longer than an ENSO phase?
Great Question. Officially minor turns up or down in the PDO are reported by NOAA as just what they are, a turn in the PDO in the positive or negative direction. But it is the long term trend that really is the secret sauce of the PDO - The 20-30 year cycles, at least in my opinion. A 2-3 year turn in my mind doesn't reflect a long term trend. Instead it is just like what you indicated, a blip or transition mainly influenced by ENSO. And then the PDO typically returns to it's pre-ENSO state. I'm really trying to tease out the long term trend in the PDO because they are the foundation for how ENSO and the planets weather will react during those long term periods. And there are many scientists who also look at the PDO from a long term perspective, rather than a strict day to day sort of view. Either view is correct, it just depend what you're trying to do with the data. Good question again.
Thank you Mark!
Hi Pierre - You're becoming a regular donator! Thanks so much, i really appreciate your contributions.
@@Stormsurf001 It is the least I can do. I have learned so much from your videos and look forward to them all week. The depth of information you provide while making it accessible to those of us who have no background in forecasting is incredible. Thank you!!
@@pierremorton1665 You are most welcome Pierre! Thanks for taking the time to watch the videos.
The graph at 56:00 shows PDO combined with ENSO?
Just in case :) - Is it possible to subtract ENSO ? We would see the PDO cycles more clear....
I wouldn't be too much concerned about surfing. This long lasting 'Ocean heat wave' together with the massive antarctic sea ice loss *again!!* - is a bad bad sign for future climate.
TBH - Germans usually don't worry about surf at all. We just don't surf :)) Thx for your detailed insights.
Hi VolkerEngels - I don't claim to be a PDO expert and the data is produced by NOAA so I don't even have access to the raw data to know how much of it is influenced by ENSO. But I hear what you are asking and think it is a good idea. If we did that it would make the PDO an index of water temp differences between the East and West Pacific. And that means it would be a reflection of pressure differences between those two areas. And that is exactly what I'm trying to understand, though it seems clear that higher pressure in the Pacific sets up with the cool Phase of the PDO and lower pressure with the warm phase. And even with the ENSO data included in the index, the net effects on storm production and surf production seem pretty clear. But I need to research more.
I just found the main paper that describes the PDO here:
www.researchgate.net/profile/Steven-Hare/publication/225139766_The_Pacific_Decadal_Oscillation/links/00b7d518012d91c1c3000000/The-Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation.pdf
I think you're question has set me out on a long journey to try and figure it all out at a deeper level. Thanks!
@@Stormsurf001 Reading the paper (still:) Whow, thank you!
Climate plays Punk now....
_"Atmospheric Rivers shifting polwards (6-10 degrees lat) due to climate change"_
Worldwide - (see Sahara)
Imagine -'Pineapple Express' now arrives 500-1110 km further north.
(1110km = 690 miles :))
@@volkerengels5298 Hope we don't get there!
Most Excellent ¿
Ha ha - Thanks Ray!
The current solar maximum is surely affecting the seasons.
Where are we? We’re F’d…
Thanks for the further insight into the PDO, Mark!
Jokes aside, this high pressure bias off our west coast is no joke. The oceans sitting on a ton of energy, but the atmosphere has more latent heat in it. Hot and dry will probably dominate until either the ocean has enough heat/energy to overcome it, or the atmosphere cools and lets it loose. Maybe that’s what the under sea volcano did a few years back for a short time. Eventually it will let loose, and it will probably be big. I just hope I’m still alive to see it at this rate :/.
Hi Evolution - First off, thanks so much for your contribution. They are always appreciated.
And yes, we are kinda f'd for the time being. But to your point, I kinda temporarily forgot about the Tonga Volcano and it's effects on the atmosphere. It is for sure having some sort of an effect, though I don't think anyone really understands exactly what it is. Thanks for the reminder. And like you said, I suspect we will continue to stew for a little while longer, and then suddenly all that moisture in the upper atmosphere will clear out, and a significant change will set in. At least that's what I'm hoping for. If this is the new normal, we'll that would be sad on so many levels. So for now I'm right with you, it's just a temporary situation. Fingers crossed.
@@Stormsurf001 Potsdam Institute says _Honga Tonga has had a slight cooling trend over 2 years. Now its done._
Imagine the amount of water vapor released by the temp jump in the oceans around march 2023 - which last til now.
@@volkerengels5298 That seems to be exactly the case just seeing how the atmosphere has responded over the past 2 years (muting El Nino). And another source reported the same results:
artsci.tamu.edu/news/2024/07/new-study-disputes-hunga-tonga-volcanos-role-in-2023-24-global-warm-up.html
In the pentad sea level anomalies graph, the NE section of the NPAC had pretty high (warm)anomalies. Could this help generate and feed NW storms coming into California?
Hi Will - Yes, anomalies are quite high there (off North Japan and the Kuril Islands) as are sea surface temp anomalies. The theory is that area is the center of the high pressure regime being brought on by La Nina and the negative PDO. In the center of high pressure there is little wind and clouds, exposing the oceans surface to more sun, raising temps in that area. And without the wind, there is no upwelling. So we end up with a very shallow area of warming waters. And theoretically cooler than normal temps should be setting up along the US West Coast. Though at the moment that is not evidenced on the charts. But my guess is as Winter sets up, and especially in Spring, the classic Negative PDO pattern will set up and SST anomalies will drop along the US West Coast and that ball of warmer water will quickly dissipate as a few winter storms move over that area. Guess we'll see.
Im just asking u this when do think that texas will get some rain and some colder temps
HI Andy - Very good question. I havent been following the Texas monsoon pattern. But I know it was really dry for years leading up to the last El Nino. And according to the NOAA projections, temps should be warmer than normal this winter and rainfall less than normal. That is not a good sign. Same for where I live out west. Hoping the forecast is wrong, at least a little.
Bathymetric enhancement. Havent heard that one since undergrad oceanography at Scripps
Hi Andrew! Yeah, it's been a while. It took me a sec to recall the term. ha ha Thanks for watching.
@@Stormsurf001 I am a competitive sailor and it is super key in areas of heavy, oscillating currents. Cheers and keep up the good work!
@@andrewvare3173 Thanks Andrew!
Hey, France has been and is Pumping, Portugal, Nazare, whats your storey.
We are just luzers here in the California ¿
@@rayvelasco2059looters***
Hi Peter - Thanks so much for the report. Yeah, during La Nina the Atlantic and Indian Ocean pump. My guess is you're going to have a very active Winter. Hope you score! Us here in the West United States are going to not get a whole lot of surf unfortunately. Keep me posted if you can.
🌊🌊🌊
Bring it on!
Sure feels like winter is shorter. Less frost is my area north of SF.
Hi Craig, I was gonna say from a snow perspective it seems like the start of the ski season keeps getting later and later as does the arrival of the first real winter rain in the SF Bay area . Purely anecdotal, but it just doesn't feel like it use to.
@@Stormsurf001 it doesn’t. We’ve finally got some fall conditions here north of San Francisco. Surf is pretty small for this time of year though.
@@craig8638 Thanks for the report Craig - I think I have some answers as to what is going on. Will update in this weeks video.
petey o is on drugs. the atmospheric silver type.
anyway mark, the power tool gave me a boner this week. i dont know if you heard about our solar activity but the teleconnections sure showed the incoming energy
and look at those cfs outlier forecasts.
for me it clarifies the solar effect on our earthly battery
basically were charged and the sphere will be buzzing soon.
all the best uncle!
Hi Brendon - Yes, I've been monitoring Solar Cycle number 25. Certainly lots of strong solar flares pumping a lot of electromagnetic radiation our way. If nothing else the Auroras have been active, supposedly viewable as far south as North CA. I've not seen anything personally, but would like to. I'm real interested to see what if any effect it will have on the atmosphere. Guess we'll see!
Thanks!
Hi Coach! Thanks so much for your ongoing contributions. Always appreciated.
Thanks!
Thanks so much for your ongoing contributions Our Predicament! It is always appreciated. Hope you're doing well.