Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...i have delve deeply into active trading which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility... I'm especially grateful to Loraine Souvenir tactics and strategies…
Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
Surprised to see her mentioned here! She tailors trading courses to suit beginners’ needs and really knows her stuff. Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey-definitely worth it!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Lets be clear when you say " the market " is up 60 % in the last 2 years. 7 stocks are up 60 % . The other 493 stocks are up a few percent. 7 stocks are not "the market" . The other 493 stocks reflect the economy and the state of the nation, while 7 stocks reflect the extreme irrational exuberance and gambling mentality driving todays index's. No way this ends well. No way.
That’s why I adjusted my allocations recently so I have much less invested in those 7 to 10 companies. I still have a lot invested in those 7 to 10 stocks, but instead of 75% of my portfolio it’s down to 30% of my portfolio.
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season.
I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.
I agree.Based on my personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has seen exponential growth. It's not just about having money to invest in stocks; you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have the strength to hold on during market fluctuations
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the drivin;g force behind your success?.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Laurel Ann Watkins’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
You can’t time or predict the market( or gold or bitcoin) so stay diversified and don’t worry about it. As you get older, you may want to get more conservative in your investing.
Dollar-Cost Average. Overall evens out with more upside in years. Have cash on side lines for times of downturns so you are not selling at 'lows.' Also avoid scams that are seemingly in every financial thread...usually state...blah blah...someone's name..."I looked the name up on the internet".... I wish youtube and channels could ban these obvious scams comments.
Yeah, I report them all the time. They're so annoying. 🙄. And I agree that dollar cost averaging is the way to go. It's the reason I'm not panicking about the predicted down turn.
What difference does it make? No one can time the market consistently so IMO one should own quality companies or ETF’s that consistently pay reasonable dividends and stay invested. I don’t ever need to sell my equity positions to live so my equity positions are essentially a long term hedge against inflation and platform for inheritance for our children. Bull & Bear markets and corrections are just a normal part of being invested in the market. Whether the market is over or undervalued at any one point in time is irrelevant, at least for me.
Financial planners like to make believe in asset allocation saves you because it's easy. I'm not going to say to you. Look at 2022. Bonds are down as much as stocks
Do either of these factors take into account the fact that almost every paycheck has a stock purchase included, in the form of a 401K contribution? Those buys are not timed, or care about the status of the market. These indicators may have never seen this much blind buying. Should we consider this?
Good question....Ideally, do what Buffett does which is start to hoard some cash so if the market dips you can put some money in at that point which is really really hard psychologically and you can't know the bottom for certain either.
I agree the current market seems overpriced, but nobody can know when the correction will happen. The CAPE ratio graph didn't anticipate the 2008 crash at all. No rise beforehand, just steady until it suddenly crashed. Hindsight is 20/20 - you can always find a metric that predicted what happened. But each time that's a different metric, and you can't know in advance which one will predict the next correction.
Yep! the only thing we know that hasn't been proven wrong yet, is that if we just invest slow and steady amounts through time, in a well diversified portfolio, things will average to be a very good return, eventually. We will do much better if we just stop looking at what's happening or worry about the ups and downs, till a few years before we need to access a large part of the investment -at that time maybe we can look to rebalancing the portfolio in favour of short term stability, unless we can be quite flexible to wait out another 5-year down cycle.
yeah because 2008 crash was maybe not caused by overvaluation aka correction of stocks maybe there is something called as real estate. I am not american but even i know what happened come onnn
They said the market was over-valued 2 years ago and recession was coming, so I moved $130,000 from stocks to bonds. Meanwhile those bonds earned 2% and the stock market went up over 30%. Thanks a lot. Delayed my retirement by a year if not more.
In same boat as you. I missed out big time. Same thing with housing. Was on the sidelines because I listened to the noise. Now I am almost priced out. You just never know with these things. No one does except perhaps the insider politicians
Me too but in SPAXX, so moved back in to the market index funds over the last year. I’m in a few index funds, if it goes down 10 percent I put move to get out , so far only 2-5 percent swings. Close to retirement so not going to take a bigger hit than 10 right now. I can’t seem to find any bond funds that keeps up with inflation.
Money market and cd’s. Have patience and wait for the collapse. Even if the market drops 10% in 2 weeks. Don’t be in a hurry to buy. Most collapses rebound with bargain buyers then collapse again. The real bottom will spend months at the bottom.
I don't know when or how much the market will pull back, but after two years of 20%+ growth, it's not a bad time to add a couple (or more) years to your safe bucket. If you are anywhere close to retirement.
One way for a retiree to take advantage of a down market is to keep your pre-tax money in the market and do a huge Roth conversion at a discount. Just have enough cash to pay the taxes.
The market is expensive at the top. If you exclude the Mag7, the market is close to fairly valued. Maybe the premium for big tech is warranted because of the potential for future growth, idk. But there are some hedges besides cash like equal weighted SP500, small/mid caps or international.
Keep in mind that the market went way down when the “just trust the science” program was sprang in 2019 when lots of our senators knowing what was coming, sold millions at the top. At this point the banking cartel (with congress approval) generated over two trillion in monetized debt which was given to Black Rock controlled companies, which has resulted in even more currency depreciation than normal. I estimate at least 35% inflation since 2019-20. In view these factors, the market is not excessive especially when taking into account that the US is leading the world in tech company innovation while Europe and Japan are doing almost nothing.
@@lovingmylifeasIage6741 BRK made the vast majority of their returns on Apple Stock which at its height was around 50% of the funds assets. But for this one stock, they would have under performed.
Thank you so much for this amazing video! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
You must have wrong financial advisor or you as a investor need to be better educated. My first financial advisor turned out to be a 💩 so I ditched him for someone else. There are many things my current financial advisor recommended over past 15 years that did very well and a limited few things that didn't. There are certain things like precious metals and emerging market investments that I said no to that worked in my favor. Overall my advisor with my input has done far better than I could've alone. This also includes tax planning and other services that have saved me from numerous penalties. Truth be told the less you have in financial investments the less you can afford to pay advisor to help manage a portfolio. It may then be better to pay for consultation annually or bi-annually. Once your asset base grows above $500K then it makes more sense to pay an annual fee because that is something the advisor can offer more flexibility in investment strategies. Many 401Ks have limited investment options and who can manage multiple accounts after switching employers? If I were to guess the individuals who deride investment advisors the most are those who have peanuts to invest but expect the royal treatment for nothing in return.
I handled my own investments up until now but I just took on a financial advisor because, now that I am nearing retirement, I don't want to make some stupid brain dead mistake and kill years of work. At least this way I will have a buffer to lower the odds of messing it up. It was honestly very difficult to make the move to an advisor but I think it's the better choice. For someone younger, I would agree you should do it yourself. You have more time to recover if you screw up.
I'm deeply suspicious of any measure that involves GDP. What makes up GDP is too murky and too influenceable. And it's an example of using a measure for something that it was never intended.
Loss aversion is the most painful bias one can have, we become irrational and that is the time we make terrible decisions…to me as a value investor I actually hope it goes down so I can buy more cheaper…you need to look carefully at your allocations…as Buffett say be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when other are fearful…so the only way to be greedy is to have cash/short term bills to buy when the markets revert back to the mean…a personal choice is made and we reap the benefits or pay the consequences. But no one has a crystal ball nor a fortune teller to say when thus looks at the facts and make rational decisions. no one ever went broke taking profits and while patience is a hard thing it is to ones benefit to look, just look…and decide.
You only know its overvalued after it tanks... It's not currently overvalued at the moment as people are still willing to buy securities at these prices. This could go on for years, or maybe just weeks or months? It'll drop like it always does... Always be buying with your 401k and IRA's and don't worry about it. If your in retirement make sure you have enough bonds / cash for your portfolio so you can draw on them when the stocks inevitably drop for awhile. LIKE THEY ALWAYS DO...
Right. Value in the stock market is always based on assumptions (guesses) about future earnings. That “may or may not happen.” But that’s called investing. So if you sit on the sidelines worried about conspiracies and things that “may or may not happen,” well, you’re never going to grow your portfolio. Wisdom: “You only know it’s overvalued after it tanks.” Right. And if you study modern portfolio management, you know that market timing is a chimera. So don’t do it. Because market timing requires such pristine timing that no human (not even Nancy Pelosi…) could possibly hit that jackpot more than a few lucky times. Oh, but they’ll CLAIM those times as if it’s a special talent! That’s called snake oil. So overvalued markets or undervalued; modern portfolio management allows you to stay the course regardless, and gain less when it’s up, but lose less when it’s down. Hang in there, quit worrying about things you can’t control, don’t listen to the pundits, and stay the course…
@@csick11 Sure those are good too... My 401K matches 100% of the first 6%.. soooooooo that's what makes 401K's "special..." But all three are good, pre tax, post tax, taxable...
With 35% of my $270,000 portfolio invested in stocks that have drastically dropped from their once-high status, I am at a loss for what to do and feel completely overwhelmed by the situation. I think investors should focus on lesser-known stocks given the current volatility in the stock market.
Diversifying your investments is, in my opinion, the best way to handle it. You may mitigate the effects of a market meltdown by spreading your money over a number of asset types, including bonds, real estate, and overseas stocks. It's vital to obtain competent counsel.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.
Im in UK, am 54 snd my retirement savings are intentionally 100% global stocks in two funds that are both heavily weighted to the US stock market, one of which (which comprises 15%) leans more towards tech stocks. I won’t start thinking about de-risking until I hit 60 and start thinking about retiring.
I would suggest based on the chart Azul provided the Bershire cash position is below the mean dating back to 2003. The target range since 2008 seems to be between 20-25%.
Saving trillions on getting rid of illegal immigrant handouts and letting DOGE cut useless government departments and employees to get the national dept under control. That's what could happen. I wouldn't worry about tariffs and foreign countries.
Add to that a corrupt administration that has been unaccountable even after waging a violent coup.! What could possibly go wrong? Oh yeah and ignoring climate change and deporting millions of low wage workers who produce our groceries..... that's a recipe for success right there 🙄.
@@tonyherdina9142absolutely, there is a different dog in the house and that dog is barking loudly to let the neighborhood know there is a property line now! The American people are getting hammered with tax after tax after tax not to mention medical care costs, insurance costs and property taxes. The federal budget is 7 trillion a year and they want more!! If we are going to live and not just survive, there has to be a massive shrinkage of government pork!!!
How does the 2022 "Inflation Reduction Act" printing of money and devaluation of the dollar factor into the market and analysts' (Schiller, Buffet, Moodys, Schwab, Morningstar etc etc) incorporation of the devaluation factor into their data and compiled information on risk?
Of course I have been wrong before. But right now I see the same way you do Azul. I am moving more of my IRAs into a short term treasury money market . In my taxable account I am buying ETFs which are more composed of dividend paying stocks and total stock market. I am retired with a fairly large pension and Social Security benefit. If the market corrects I will keep buying in my taxable account and if I need money from my IRA pull money out of my money market accounts. I have been investing since 1989.
Azul, another great video and advice to consider. I disagree with one of your observations. You said the Buffet chart indicates he is carrying an above average amount of cash, but when I look at that chart, the present level of 21% is about the average since 2006. As you say, everyone's situation is different, but for me I carry about 20% in cash as I move into retirement. Thank you for your channel.
Bitcoin is equivalent to investing in baseball cards. People make a lot of money trading each but neither have any value to me, so i avoid these. As a retiree i need income so i invest in the lowest ROI categories to pay my bills. 5% returns arent fancy compared to baseball card investments. I have a mental block on buying anything that doesnt make sense to me.
I am a BTC hater.. It's crap... You're only hope is some idiot pays more than you did for it. That's it.. That works until it doesn't. And it won't someday...
@@BKNb77 Then To the Mooooooooooooon!!! And I'll miss out owning it directly. But my Vanguard ETF owns MSTR so I'll get my small cap weighted slice of the pie.. I won't ever buy it because I don't believe in it. Is it a scam...? Maybe maybe not... Who / what is Satoshi? I think of it more as a phenomenon... A time in history where things got weird and people got stupid with money. Too much money in the system. It's happened before, it's happening now, and it will happen again.
Due to the increased use of index investing I sometimes wonder if most stocks these days have been largely dissociated from their intrinsic value. Whether this is a bubble or a paradigm shift is anyone's guess as assuredly as is the case with bitcoin. It's a scary time to invest when it's impossible to guess as to whether it's any safer to invest in crypto with no fundamentals or Microsoft, which while a great company, has valuations that are entirely decoupled from it's price. In either case you're relying on "the bigger fool" to keep the price where it's at, and at any time that price could collapse and you'll never see your money back as assuredly as if you invested in Intel at the height of the tech bubble.
I question the use of normal distributions to predict stock market behavior. Shiller's 10 year average, was probably derived by noodling around and discovering the CAPE ratio with some predictive value, it doesn't mean that it will work in the future. Buffett's Stock value to GDP, is another attempt (IMO more realistic). The use of standard deviations in the financial advisor community, is a lemming like behavior. It is hard to be wrong when most clients will rationalize a "safer" approach. Buffett is at the Buffet and feasting on 4.2 to 4.8% rates, pretty safe territory for 250 billion cash or so (if you pull out reserves.) Just carry about a two-three year cash position to cover for a stock correction.
I'm 54. I'll retire at 62 or earlier. As a Costco employee, I'm 50% in Costco stock and 25% in 2 different growth funds. Costco has done so well, my total funds in 401k are about 60%. I'm probably too aggressive but it's worked out.
There is an upside to being invested in company stock in your 401K that many people, including those on RUclips, overlook-which is Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA). With NUA, you are taxed at the Capital Gains rate on the appreciation in value of employee company stock . This means you will pay only the capital gains rate on the appreciation of that Costco stock. Depending on your tax bracket, this can be a very large difference in your tax rate. Please have some other safer funds as well, so as Whole Life Insurance, High Yield Savings account or a Bond element. You don't want a market downturn just as you retire to derail your plans.
What you are doing is taking unnecessary risk with your portfolio. What is Costco doing differently as compared to SAMs Club to sustain this stock growth and how sustainable is it's competitive advantage? Then look at what is happening in brick and mortar retail space. Many are in financial distress. Walgreens, CVS, Best Buy, ACE hardware, and others. Amazon and e-commerce is steadily chipping away. You best speak with an investment professional and plan a diversification strategy.
I would suggest based on the chart you provided the Bershire cash position is below the mean dating back to 2003. The target range since 2008 seems to be between 20-25%.
How did Kmart stock work out? How did sears stock do? How did Kodak stock work out. Your doing good now but never invest in a single company. Your young and not as smart as you think you are! You could be lucky.
I do not know about SP 500 components, but I do know that Dow 30 components combined produce about 3-4% annual free cash flow with respect to their market capitalization combined. This cash flow yield is not sustainable at current 4.6% 10-yr treasury yield environment.
I'm mostly buying gold right now as it is one of the few things in postion to continue to see gains despite its high valuation. I don't think gold is overvalued yet.
Azul, why are the numbers and charts you use so outdated ? There are plenty of up to date charts and numbers available. And they are even more worrisome than the numbers you use. Current CAPE is 38.08 an increase of 1.84 % from Oct and a 28.89 % increase from last year. Current Buffet indicator is above 2 at 2.059. Current percentage of cash holdings at Berkshire Hathaway is 28 %.. All these numbers are significantly above the year old numbers you are using . Why do you use such old numbers. It frankly seems a little dishonest.
@@gormanthomas8135 Agreed. His subscriber count is going up but he used a chart for the CAPE ratio that ended January 31 2024. That's a year old chart. That cannot be video lag.
I use this same site and same charts. Yes, the market is very bloated. It definitely needs a correction, but what will be the trigger? People won't just trigger it themselves.
Valuations and P/E ratios mean very little to the average long term investor with a buy and hold strategy. It’s not about what the market is worth today or tomorrow or in 2025. It’s about a specific retirement date somewhere in the future. It’s a concept of time rather than money.
Anyone retiring in less than five years with the average household exposure to stocks(A record I believe ) is going to be set back on their heels . Trump is lucky until he isn’t. It’s about time for another isn’t. How long have continuing resolutions been going on in the house with no budget? Bond market hasn’t been acting well since before the worst year they’ve had in 2022. Big un inversion in rates signals trouble.
It's too bad that the charts you showed don't have up-to-date representations. Several dated from much earlier in 2024 and don't include the last 6-12 months. I think if you consider the last few months, the over-valuation is even more clear.
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year. My $200k portfolio is down by approximately 20%. Any recommendations to scale up my returns on investment?
Nobody knows anything You need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Investing can be intimidating. But having Caroline Suzan Olson in your corner means having a trusted expert who not only understands the market but also makes sure your money is working for you.
I moved from 90:10 Equities: Cash & Bonds up to and including the Trump bounce to 55:45 in mid November. I've seen this irrational behaviour in 1987, 2000 & 2008 but I wasn't around for the Tulip or South Sea Bubble ! Feels very toppy to me and I don't want to be greedy.
Going beyond the technical indicators, the social and geopolitical signs should be alarming for anybody that is over 60. I'm a first gen American boomer who's parents came from Europe as displaced persons after the war. The warning signs are all around of late stage empire such as what happened in 1914 to Great Britain. Throw in the added fact that Blackrock is the fiduciary for millions of retirees whose retirement depends on the success of what happens in Ukraine, and we have a recipe for disaster at best, Armageddon at the worst.
So… there’s always a lot of money looking for investments. Constant inflows keep prices going up until something or someone comes along and takes those funds and steals their value. Also what’s the obsession with Buffett and is there no one else you guys look at?
Geraldine Ann Philip understanding the market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profits. her siignals are top notch
That's amazing, I've seen different people talking about this Geraldine Ann, she must be a cool woman for people to talk this about her,how do you people earn money?
To me You are on the edge of understanding what I think Buffett is doing. In the end, it is all about those you love. Buffett lost his best friend last year. He said years ago that he will set up his wife with cash and a simple mutual fund when he dies. He is cashing out at the virtual top. He isn’t totally out- but his family is now set. Why would he announce that? He did- with the selling of Apple shares. His wife is 16 years younger than his 93 and, seemingly, uninterested in the money. Sounds like so many couples of that generation ( and mine in marriages over 30 years). It might make a good study for your coming counseling. How to set up that spouse who doesn’t care….
Yes the stock market is over values but is this the new norm after all the billions pumped into the economies from QE? It seems all the QE has ended up at the top of the food chain with those lucky few % owning 80% or more of the stock market? Hence, with no other options except property and crypto, im guessing is this the new norm of pe ratios above 20?
Don't forget Peter Lynch’s 8 Rules To Investing, especially #6. 1. Small investors have a huge advantage. 2. Know what you own. 3. Don’t invest purely on others opinions. 4. Focus on the company behind the stock. 5. Don’t try and predict the market 6. Market crashes are GREAT opportunities. 7. You have plenty of time. 8. You need an edge to make money.
Yes the usa market is overvalued and has been so for a few years. Predicting a correction is anybody's guess. The best option for usa investors is to buy stocks in company's outside of usa that are not over valued but are still a safe and stable investment .
I'm not sure why you watch/disagree with Azul...he presented experts' opinion that the market is overpriced. The politicians in Washington have spent us into a huge hole...I think you're going to see that continue (look at Trump's first term). The only reason to link Washington spending with the now speculative stock market is to examine the compensation of the leaders of American 500 companies (OK, a second reason is S&P companies' revenue from government sources - such as Lockheed Martin))...I suggest a book...John Bogle's GREED. It's enlightening. Be Well, and Prosper!
You are 100% correct as long as the government doesn’t try to cut spending, lay off thousands of workers, implement tariffs that will result in huge inflation and loss of exports due to tariffs in response. Other than that, and the whole overvalued market thing, I am 100% with you.
The common got his pocket picked, by inflating the economy with higher prices, corporate stock market rose, the economy struggled. In essence the stock market valuations came at the expense of the common man.
I think your view of government trust lacks significant perspective. All of the excess money taken in for SS over the past five decades and allocated to the social security trust fund has already been spent. Meanwhile now to meet obligations since payouts exceed SS receipts we are printing money and increasing debt. By borrowing this money the government is only paying interest rate of around 2.4% and this interest is financed through more debt which creates inflation making it essentially a zero if not negative return. If instead these funds were invested in market it would grow U.S. economy creating more and better jobs and along with more taxes and the trust fund would not be running out of money in 10 years. The government and elected officials are NEVER to be trusted except by those who are even more reckless with their finances.
I had to sell some Apple because it's grown to be too big a component of my portfolio. It was simply a readjustment to maintain diversification. I don't believe we're headed for a big market correction in 2025. You have to book profits some times. That's why they call it "trading"!
People are in denial, as interest rates go up assets go down, simple as that. Once the real estate bubble pops fear will spread and remember that fear is stronger than greed.
@@tripod4482 NO HE's RIGHT---I"VE HEARD THE SAME BULLCRAP FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS AND ALL I'VE DONE IS HOLD MY WINNERS ALL ALONG---THAT SAID, I LOVE NEGATIVE VIDEOS LIKE THIS---MAKES ME REALIZE THE MARKET STILL HAS PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO.
Sorry, pal, predictions of the future arent "reality". If someone listened to these internet gurus, they would have sold years ago. The best advice is buy and ignire the internet. Have liquid funds so you dont have to sell in down markets. There. Done.
A number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 65, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
My advisor is Melissa Terri Swayne, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
thank you for this tip , I must say, Melissa appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
I'm going to wait for the next stock market crash before getting in and investing. Meanwhile while waiting, I'll take 4 percent interest on my savings.
That’s sort of what I am doing. +4% CDs for as long as I can get them. With the interest earned, I dump prudently into SCHD to help hedge the falling interest rates. I’m already retired so playing it as safe as I can.
I invested 90 thousand in Palantir 3 years ago I'm up 380 percent a pull back won't matter much. Buffet is a legend but a lot of retail investors have blown him away this year
Can I give my friend for the next 20 years the exclusion amount ever year to avoid filing Form 709, United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return?
I just assume that market will crash 30-40% at some point in time. If we're fortunate to invest during the dip then that's great. I'm also mindful that a lot of people also know to keep investing. When we retire we'll have to make do with whatever we have, just like we are doing today. If we don't have enough invested to retire then we'll have to keep working if we can.
I think 2025 will not go well for the stock market because of the adverse impacts of the Trump tariffs, the economic and social impacts of mass deportation and its cost in tens of billions of dollars, the reductions planned in Federal spending, Just the chaos that comes with a Trump Presidency.
Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...i have delve deeply into active trading which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility... I'm especially grateful to Loraine Souvenir tactics and strategies…
Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
Surprised to see her mentioned here! She tailors trading courses to suit beginners’ needs and really knows her stuff. Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey-definitely worth it!
Ever since I started following Loraine’s strategies, my trading game has elevated to new heights. Truly a mastermind in the trading world.
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Lets be clear when you say " the market " is up 60 % in the last 2 years. 7 stocks are up 60 % . The other 493 stocks are up a few percent. 7 stocks are not "the market" . The other 493 stocks reflect the economy and the state of the nation, while 7 stocks reflect the extreme irrational exuberance and gambling mentality driving todays index's. No way this ends well. No way.
That’s why I adjusted my allocations recently so I have much less invested in those 7 to 10 companies. I still have a lot invested in those 7 to 10 stocks, but instead of 75% of my portfolio it’s down to 30% of my portfolio.
Actually a few mega cap stocks have made the market as a whole go up 60%. Most stocks have barely recovered their 2021 highs.
Very true!
But will that be that mag 7 have the stuffs that is needed (efficiency enabler) while the rest ride their coat tails?
This is the problem with a lot of financial planners. They just talk about stock and bond allocations without knowing the intricacies of the indices.
I thought Warren Buffett said, "Be fearful when others a greedy and be greedy when others are fearful".
Yes I think that is the quote!
Nope!
Definitely it was to be FEARLESS😂😂
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season.
I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.
I agree.Based on my personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has seen exponential growth. It's not just about having money to invest in stocks; you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have the strength to hold on during market fluctuations
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the drivin;g force behind your success?.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Laurel Ann Watkins’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
You can’t time or predict the market( or gold or bitcoin) so stay diversified and don’t worry about it. As you get older, you may want to get more conservative in your investing.
@dan "...get more conservative in your investing." Does that mean allocating more to BTC? Michael Saylor says 1000% YES!
Dollar-Cost Average. Overall evens out with more upside in years. Have cash on side lines for times of downturns so you are not selling at 'lows.'
Also avoid scams that are seemingly in every financial thread...usually state...blah blah...someone's name..."I looked the name up on the internet"....
I wish youtube and channels could ban these obvious scams comments.
scammers get banned if you click next to the post and report it
Yeah, I report them all the time. They're so annoying. 🙄. And I agree that dollar cost averaging is the way to go. It's the reason I'm not panicking about the predicted down turn.
The Cantillon Effect: How the Rich Get Richer😂😂😂😂😂 I’m good $$$$$ in bank 😂😂😂😂
I report them constantly. It's getting ridiculous!
I report them and comment that they’re scams and I get limited on my responses. 🤦♂️
What difference does it make? No one can time the market consistently so IMO one should own quality companies or ETF’s that consistently pay reasonable dividends and stay invested. I don’t ever need to sell my equity positions to live so my equity positions are essentially a long term hedge against inflation and platform for inheritance for our children. Bull & Bear markets and corrections are just a normal part of being invested in the market. Whether the market is over or undervalued at any one point in time is irrelevant, at least for me.
Exactly. The sky is always falling. Eventually, they will be right, but then you missed out on the huge hains while quivering in cash 3 years ago.
Financial planners like to make believe in asset allocation saves you because it's easy. I'm not going to say to you. Look at 2022. Bonds are down as much as stocks
Do either of these factors take into account the fact that almost every paycheck has a stock purchase included, in the form of a 401K contribution? Those buys are not timed, or care about the status of the market. These indicators may have never seen this much blind buying. Should we consider this?
Interesting question.
It means there is a constant flow of money into stocks. Now it’s up to the fund to invest wisely and itself not be ‘dumb money’.
The Elite Society's Money Manifestation ebook made me realize so much about attracting wealth, it’s insane
Good question....Ideally, do what Buffett does which is start to hoard some cash so if the market dips you can put some money in at that point which is really really hard psychologically and you can't know the bottom for certain either.
I agree the current market seems overpriced, but nobody can know when the correction will happen. The CAPE ratio graph didn't anticipate the 2008 crash at all. No rise beforehand, just steady until it suddenly crashed. Hindsight is 20/20 - you can always find a metric that predicted what happened. But each time that's a different metric, and you can't know in advance which one will predict the next correction.
Yep! the only thing we know that hasn't been proven wrong yet, is that if we just invest slow and steady amounts through time, in a well diversified portfolio, things will average to be a very good return, eventually. We will do much better if we just stop looking at what's happening or worry about the ups and downs, till a few years before we need to access a large part of the investment -at that time maybe we can look to rebalancing the portfolio in favour of short term stability, unless we can be quite flexible to wait out another 5-year down cycle.
Seems overpriced by who? and as you said by changing metrics? Any youtuber trying to make sense of timing the market is just a waste of time.
yeah because 2008 crash was maybe not caused by overvaluation aka correction of stocks maybe there is something called as real estate. I am not american but even i know what happened come onnn
Stay put, in the market.....forever. If that doesn't work then only the ultra billionaires make it, for awhile, lol.😂
do you know what caused the 2008 crash ? It sure seems like you don't.
"Hard to value BitCoin..." Ha ha ha ha... it has no value and these people will be sorry.
True, it is even worse than the government's fiat debt money because crypto has nothing at all to back it.
It’s finite unlike the dollar
Russia and America have Announced that they're either stacking or mining it... It's eating gold alive. Theres no going back.
Perhaps. Or maybe you missed out on an obvious opportunity
I will just keep buying every other week until I retire. Little gold, little btc, what else can I do?
They said the market was over-valued 2 years ago and recession was coming, so I moved $130,000 from stocks to bonds. Meanwhile those bonds earned 2% and the stock market went up over 30%. Thanks a lot. Delayed my retirement by a year if not more.
Thank you for this comment. When I am in the same place as you years from now, I will split it 50/50 between stocks and bonds.
In same boat as you. I missed out big time. Same thing with housing. Was on the sidelines because I listened to the noise. Now I am almost priced out. You just never know with these things. No one does except perhaps the insider politicians
That’s why you don’t try to time the market.
Me too but in SPAXX, so moved back in to the market index funds over the last year. I’m in a few index funds, if it goes down 10 percent I put move to get out , so far only 2-5 percent swings. Close to retirement so not going to take a bigger hit than 10 right now. I can’t seem to find any bond funds that keeps up with inflation.
Don’t ever trust scam street. Sorry you had to learn the hard way 😢
They've been saying the market is overvalued for the past couple of years. What are you supposed to do? You can't time the market.
Money market and cd’s. Have patience and wait for the collapse. Even if the market drops 10% in 2 weeks. Don’t be in a hurry to buy. Most collapses rebound with bargain buyers then collapse again. The real bottom will spend months at the bottom.
Let it ride......
I don't know when or how much the market will pull back, but after two years of 20%+ growth, it's not a bad time to add a couple (or more) years to your safe bucket. If you are anywhere close to retirement.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. -John Maynard Keynes
“Verocious”….?
I like it. A portmanteau of “voracious” and “ferocious”. Think I will start using it.
One way for a retiree to take advantage of a down market is to keep your pre-tax money in the market and do a huge Roth conversion at a discount. Just have enough cash to pay the taxes.
Good idea.
❤❤
Thank You so much Azul for taking the time to educate me and others.
The market is expensive at the top. If you exclude the Mag7, the market is close to fairly valued. Maybe the premium for big tech is warranted because of the potential for future growth, idk. But there are some hedges besides cash like equal weighted SP500, small/mid caps or international.
Keep in mind that the market went way down when the “just trust the science” program was sprang in 2019 when lots of our senators knowing what was coming, sold millions at the top. At this point the banking cartel (with congress approval) generated over two trillion in monetized debt which was given to Black Rock controlled companies, which has resulted in even more currency depreciation than normal. I estimate at least 35% inflation since 2019-20. In view these factors, the market is not excessive especially when taking into account that the US is leading the world in tech company innovation while Europe and Japan are doing almost nothing.
It is over valued. It hasn't got very much room to grow so we might have stagflation for a while. The Buffett scale is worth watching.
You'll never agree with asset allocation stuff. 50% stock 50% bonds. Far too basic
@@lovingmylifeasIage6741 BRK made the vast majority of their returns on Apple Stock which at its height was around 50% of the funds assets. But for this one stock, they would have under performed.
everyone’s situation is different. If you are retired and don’t need the risk then why take it.
Thank you so much for this amazing video! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Another great video! What are your thoughts on making an aristocrat dividend fund part of your asset aallocation?
I will never understand why people give their money to financial advisors, who are totally lost
You must have wrong financial advisor or you as a investor need to be better educated. My first financial advisor turned out to be a 💩 so I ditched him for someone else.
There are many things my current financial advisor recommended over past 15 years that did very well and a limited few things that didn't. There are certain things like precious metals and emerging market investments that I said no to that worked in my favor. Overall my advisor with my input has done far better than I could've alone. This also includes tax planning and other services that have saved me from numerous penalties.
Truth be told the less you have in financial investments the less you can afford to pay advisor to help manage a portfolio. It may then be better to pay for consultation annually or bi-annually. Once your asset base grows above $500K then it makes more sense to pay an annual fee because that is something the advisor can offer more flexibility in investment strategies. Many 401Ks have limited investment options and who can manage multiple accounts after switching employers?
If I were to guess the individuals who deride investment advisors the most are those who have peanuts to invest but expect the royal treatment for nothing in return.
Wrong, they help lots of people from screwing up their investments.
I handled my own investments up until now but I just took on a financial advisor because, now that I am nearing retirement, I don't want to make some stupid brain dead mistake and kill years of work. At least this way I will have a buffer to lower the odds of messing it up. It was honestly very difficult to make the move to an advisor but I think it's the better choice. For someone younger, I would agree you should do it yourself. You have more time to recover if you screw up.
@ vanguard has advisory service that charges.30% that’s outstanding. Why pay 1% under management when you don’t have to.
If you're financially illiterate then a financial advisor can help guide you. Otherwise you're paying someone that does nothing for you.
Of course it is. Wall Street and Main Street have been completely disconnected for decades.
I'm deeply suspicious of any measure that involves GDP. What makes up GDP is too murky and too influenceable. And it's an example of using a measure for something that it was never intended.
Loss aversion is the most painful bias one can have, we become irrational and that is the time we make terrible decisions…to me as a value investor I actually hope it goes down so I can buy more cheaper…you need to look carefully at your allocations…as Buffett say be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when other are fearful…so the only way to be greedy is to have cash/short term bills to buy when the markets revert back to the mean…a personal choice is made and we reap the benefits or pay the consequences. But no one has a crystal ball nor a fortune teller to say when thus looks at the facts and make rational decisions. no one ever went broke taking profits and while patience is a hard thing it is to ones benefit to look, just look…and decide.
Fear is stronger than greed
You only know its overvalued after it tanks... It's not currently overvalued at the moment as people are still willing to buy securities at these prices. This could go on for years, or maybe just weeks or months? It'll drop like it always does... Always be buying with your 401k and IRA's and don't worry about it. If your in retirement make sure you have enough bonds / cash for your portfolio so you can draw on them when the stocks inevitably drop for awhile. LIKE THEY ALWAYS DO...
It's over valued because it's based on future speculative earnings that may or may not even happen
Right. Value in the stock market is always based on assumptions (guesses) about future earnings. That “may or may not happen.” But that’s called investing. So if you sit on the sidelines worried about conspiracies and things that “may or may not happen,” well, you’re never going to grow your portfolio. Wisdom: “You only know it’s overvalued after it tanks.” Right. And if you study modern portfolio management, you know that market timing is a chimera. So don’t do it. Because market timing requires such pristine timing that no human (not even Nancy Pelosi…) could possibly hit that jackpot more than a few lucky times. Oh, but they’ll CLAIM those times as if it’s a special talent! That’s called snake oil. So overvalued markets or undervalued; modern portfolio management allows you to stay the course regardless, and gain less when it’s up, but lose less when it’s down. Hang in there, quit worrying about things you can’t control, don’t listen to the pundits, and stay the course…
@@tommyrq180 Pelosi.. LMFAO... ahahaha
What's so special about 401 vs a brokerage? During tough economic times. Having a brokerage is more valuable
@@csick11 Sure those are good too... My 401K matches 100% of the first 6%.. soooooooo that's what makes 401K's "special..." But all three are good, pre tax, post tax, taxable...
AWESOME video! Directly applicipable to me.
With 35% of my $270,000 portfolio invested in stocks that have drastically dropped from their once-high status, I am at a loss for what to do and feel completely overwhelmed by the situation. I think investors should focus on lesser-known stocks given the current volatility in the stock market.
Diversifying your investments is, in my opinion, the best way to handle it. You may mitigate the effects of a market meltdown by spreading your money over a number of asset types, including bonds, real estate, and overseas stocks. It's vital to obtain competent counsel.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.
Her name is Annette Christine Conte can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Im in UK, am 54 snd my retirement savings are intentionally 100% global stocks in two funds that are both heavily weighted to the US stock market, one of which (which comprises 15%) leans more towards tech stocks.
I won’t start thinking about de-risking until I hit 60 and start thinking about retiring.
I would suggest based on the chart Azul provided the Bershire cash position is below the mean dating back to 2003. The target range since 2008 seems to be between 20-25%.
Isn't this typically the time of year that stocks don't do well ? thanks for your channel .
Extreme over-valuation and an incoming administration bent on tariffs and taking over Canada, Greenland and Panama -- what could possibly go wrong?
Saving trillions on getting rid of illegal immigrant handouts and letting DOGE cut useless government departments and employees to get the national dept under control. That's what could happen. I wouldn't worry about tariffs and foreign countries.
Add to that a corrupt administration that has been unaccountable even after waging a violent coup.! What could possibly go wrong? Oh yeah and ignoring climate change and deporting millions of low wage workers who produce our groceries..... that's a recipe for success right there 🙄.
@@tonyherdina9142absolutely, there is a different dog in the house and that dog is barking loudly to let the neighborhood know there is a property line now! The American people are getting hammered with tax after tax after tax not to mention medical care costs, insurance costs and property taxes. The federal budget is 7 trillion a year and they want more!! If we are going to live and not just survive, there has to be a massive shrinkage of government pork!!!
@@tonyherdina9142what a maroon
@clarkpalace Sorry, Trump won and by a landslide. Don't worry, he'll straighten this country out.
How does the 2022 "Inflation Reduction Act" printing of money and devaluation of the dollar factor into the market and analysts' (Schiller, Buffet, Moodys, Schwab, Morningstar etc etc) incorporation of the devaluation factor into their data and compiled information on risk?
What printing of money?
Of course I have been wrong before. But right now I see the same way you do Azul. I am moving more of my IRAs into a short term treasury money market . In my taxable account I am buying ETFs which are more composed of dividend paying stocks and total stock market. I am retired with a fairly large pension and Social Security benefit. If the market corrects I will keep buying in my taxable account and if I need money from my IRA pull money out of my money market accounts. I have been investing since 1989.
Azul, another great video and advice to consider. I disagree with one of your observations. You said the Buffet chart indicates he is carrying an above average amount of cash, but when I look at that chart, the present level of 21% is about the average since 2006. As you say, everyone's situation is different, but for me I carry about 20% in cash as I move into retirement. Thank you for your channel.
The chart I just looked at has Berkshire at 50.7% cash to equity ratio
As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had a record-breaking $325.2 billion in cash reserves
Bitcoin is equivalent to investing in baseball cards. People make a lot of money trading each but neither have any value to me, so i avoid these. As a retiree i need income so i invest in the lowest ROI categories to pay my bills. 5% returns arent fancy compared to baseball card investments. I have a mental block on buying anything that doesnt make sense to me.
I don’t use financial advisors but Azul does a great job on his videos.
I am a BTC hater.. It's crap... You're only hope is some idiot pays more than you did for it. That's it.. That works until it doesn't. And it won't someday...
What if there’s never a short of idiots?
@@BKNb77 Then To the Mooooooooooooon!!! And I'll miss out owning it directly. But my Vanguard ETF owns MSTR so I'll get my small cap weighted slice of the pie.. I won't ever buy it because I don't believe in it. Is it a scam...? Maybe maybe not... Who / what is Satoshi? I think of it more as a phenomenon... A time in history where things got weird and people got stupid with money. Too much money in the system. It's happened before, it's happening now, and it will happen again.
Due to the increased use of index investing I sometimes wonder if most stocks these days have been largely dissociated from their intrinsic value. Whether this is a bubble or a paradigm shift is anyone's guess as assuredly as is the case with bitcoin. It's a scary time to invest when it's impossible to guess as to whether it's any safer to invest in crypto with no fundamentals or Microsoft, which while a great company, has valuations that are entirely decoupled from it's price. In either case you're relying on "the bigger fool" to keep the price where it's at, and at any time that price could collapse and you'll never see your money back as assuredly as if you invested in Intel at the height of the tech bubble.
I question the use of normal distributions to predict stock market behavior. Shiller's 10 year average, was probably derived by noodling around and discovering the CAPE ratio with some predictive value, it doesn't mean that it will work in the future. Buffett's Stock value to GDP, is another attempt (IMO more realistic).
The use of standard deviations in the financial advisor community, is a lemming like behavior. It is hard to be wrong when most clients will rationalize a "safer" approach.
Buffett is at the Buffet and feasting on 4.2 to 4.8% rates, pretty safe territory for 250 billion cash or so (if you pull out reserves.) Just carry about a two-three year cash position to cover for a stock correction.
I took my ball and went home. Safe havens for me now.
Great content but the buffet cash chart is say is at about average over last 20 yr, if not below.
This is only about the US stock market (S&P). With international diversification things look different.
Doesn't change my point if you look at ex-US indexes.
I'm 54. I'll retire at 62 or earlier. As a Costco employee, I'm 50% in Costco stock and 25% in 2 different growth funds. Costco has done so well, my total funds in 401k are about 60%. I'm probably too aggressive but it's worked out.
There is an upside to being invested in company stock in your 401K that many people, including those on RUclips, overlook-which is Net Unrealized Appreciation (NUA).
With NUA, you are taxed at the Capital Gains rate on the appreciation in value of employee company stock . This means you will pay only the capital gains rate on the appreciation of that Costco stock. Depending on your tax bracket, this can be a very large difference in your tax rate.
Please have some other safer funds as well, so as Whole Life Insurance, High Yield Savings account or a Bond element. You don't want a market downturn just as you retire to derail your plans.
What you are doing is taking unnecessary risk with your portfolio. What is Costco doing differently as compared to SAMs Club to sustain this stock growth and how sustainable is it's competitive advantage? Then look at what is happening in brick and mortar retail space. Many are in financial distress. Walgreens, CVS, Best Buy, ACE hardware, and others. Amazon and e-commerce is steadily chipping away. You best speak with an investment professional and plan a diversification strategy.
I would suggest based on the chart you provided the Bershire cash position is below the mean dating back to 2003. The target range since 2008 seems to be between 20-25%.
@@danielhurst8863 Think ENRON
How did Kmart stock work out? How did sears stock do? How did Kodak stock work out. Your doing good now but never invest in a single company. Your young and not as smart as you think you are! You could be lucky.
that's vor-A-cious appetite... not to be confused with fer-O-cious... You seem to be mixing the two by pronouncing it, ver-O-cious...
Can you please answer why you are saying 60%? It is around 30%. Please correct me if I am wrong? Thanks
I do not know about SP 500 components, but I do know that Dow 30 components combined produce about 3-4% annual free cash flow with respect to their market capitalization combined. This cash flow yield is not sustainable at current 4.6% 10-yr treasury yield environment.
Great advice - now is really a good time to rebalance.
I'm mostly buying gold right now as it is one of the few things in postion to continue to see gains despite its high valuation. I don't think gold is overvalued yet.
Azul, why are the numbers and charts you use so outdated ? There are plenty of up to date charts and numbers available. And they are even more worrisome than the numbers you use. Current CAPE is 38.08 an increase of 1.84 % from Oct and a 28.89 % increase from last year. Current Buffet indicator is above 2 at 2.059. Current percentage of cash holdings at Berkshire Hathaway is 28 %.. All these numbers are significantly above the year old numbers you are using . Why do you use such old numbers. It frankly seems a little dishonest.
Azul is producing a large number of videos these days. Hopefully quantity is not superseding his desire for quality.
@@gormanthomas8135 Agreed. His subscriber count is going up but he used a chart for the CAPE ratio that ended January 31 2024. That's a year old chart. That cannot be video lag.
Where do you get your S&P 500 P/E number?
I use this same site and same charts. Yes, the market is very bloated. It definitely needs a correction, but what will be the trigger? People won't just trigger it themselves.
We're living in some crazy times. Anything can happen at any given moment.
I wish it was just a trigger, then we would all know. It's usually the market slowly going down with larger down days than up and just snowballs.
Valuations and P/E ratios mean very little to the average long term investor with a buy and hold strategy. It’s not about what the market is worth today or tomorrow or in 2025. It’s about a specific retirement date somewhere in the future. It’s a concept of time rather than money.
Anyone retiring in less than five years with the average household exposure to stocks(A record I believe ) is going to be set back on their heels . Trump is lucky until he isn’t. It’s about time for another isn’t. How long have continuing resolutions been going on in the house with no budget? Bond market hasn’t been acting well since before the worst year they’ve had in 2022. Big un inversion in rates signals trouble.
It's too bad that the charts you showed don't have up-to-date representations. Several dated from much earlier in 2024 and don't include the last 6-12 months. I think if you consider the last few months, the over-valuation is even more clear.
im selling stocks and buying puls sgov. i take %5 divi and wait for correction
What is your opinion on Bitcoin(Rat Poison per Charlie Munger) I still cannot figure it out what I can buy with Bitcoin.
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year. My $200k portfolio is down by approximately 20%. Any recommendations to scale up my returns on investment?
Nobody knows anything You need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Investing can be intimidating. But having Caroline Suzan Olson in your corner means having a trusted expert who not only understands the market but also makes sure your money is working for you.
Where can I find Caroline Suzan Olson?
Her consultant page should be on the internet and should have her basic info; you can research if you like.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
The PE on many stocks right now would require unbelievable returns now and in the future. Love Warren Buffet!
2022 bonds were down as much as stocks. Don't like bonds for Long-Term. You'd rather have dividend paying stocks
I moved from 90:10 Equities: Cash & Bonds up to and including the Trump bounce to 55:45 in mid November. I've seen this irrational behaviour in 1987, 2000 & 2008 but I wasn't around for the Tulip or South Sea Bubble ! Feels very toppy to me and I don't want to be greedy.
Going beyond the technical indicators, the social and geopolitical signs should be alarming for anybody that is over 60. I'm a first gen American boomer who's parents came from Europe as displaced persons after the war. The warning signs are all around of late stage empire such as what happened in 1914 to Great Britain. Throw in the added fact that Blackrock is the fiduciary for millions of retirees whose retirement depends on the success of what happens in Ukraine, and we have a recipe for disaster at best, Armageddon at the worst.
So… there’s always a lot of money looking for investments. Constant inflows keep prices going up until something or someone comes along and takes those funds and steals their value. Also what’s the obsession with Buffett and is there no one else you guys look at?
I understand that once you decide to time the market you’re trading.
You can lose more upside trying to avoid the dip.
ABB V Timing the market.
But you never take the ride down and lose all your "up side "
@
I don’t understand your remark.
Hit 250k today. Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in July 2024
This must be an investment with Mrs Geraldine Ann Philip
Wow! Kind of in shock you mentioned expert, Geraldine Ann Philips. What a coincidence!!
⠀ She helped me recover what I lost trying to trade myself
Geraldine Ann Philip understanding the market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profits. her siignals are top notch
That's amazing, I've seen different people talking about this Geraldine Ann, she must be a cool woman for people to talk this about her,how do you people earn money?
To me You are on the edge of understanding what I think Buffett is doing. In the end, it is all about those you love.
Buffett lost his best friend last year. He said years ago that he will set up his wife with cash and a simple mutual fund when he dies. He is cashing out at the virtual top. He isn’t totally out- but his family is now set. Why would he announce that? He did- with the selling of Apple shares. His wife is 16 years younger than his 93 and, seemingly, uninterested in the money. Sounds like so many couples of that generation ( and mine in marriages over 30 years). It might make a good study for your coming counseling. How to set up that spouse who doesn’t care….
Yes the stock market is over values but is this the new norm after all the billions pumped into the economies from QE? It seems all the QE has ended up at the top of the food chain with those lucky few % owning 80% or more of the stock market? Hence, with no other options except property and crypto, im guessing is this the new norm of pe ratios above 20?
Don't forget Peter Lynch’s 8 Rules To Investing, especially #6.
1. Small investors have a huge advantage.
2. Know what you own.
3. Don’t invest purely on others opinions.
4. Focus on the company behind the stock.
5. Don’t try and predict the market
6. Market crashes are GREAT opportunities.
7. You have plenty of time.
8. You need an edge to make money.
I’m not worried one bit, all my money is in EBT.
It seems the question is ALWAYS whether the market is over-valued, or not.
Yes the usa market is overvalued and has been so for a few years. Predicting a correction is anybody's guess. The best option for usa investors is to buy stocks in company's outside of usa that are not over valued but are still a safe and stable investment .
High yield savings is the best during recession
I don’t believe the market it is overvalued. The money from the deficit spending by the federal government over the past 23 years had to go somewhere…
I'm not sure why you watch/disagree with Azul...he presented experts' opinion that the market is overpriced. The politicians in Washington have spent us into a huge hole...I think you're going to see that continue (look at Trump's first term). The only reason to link Washington spending with the now speculative stock market is to examine the compensation of the leaders of American 500 companies (OK, a second reason is S&P companies' revenue from government sources - such as Lockheed Martin))...I suggest a book...John Bogle's GREED. It's enlightening. Be Well, and Prosper!
I'm starting to believe that stock price "overvaluation" is the result of real economy inflation due to overprinting money.
You are 100% correct as long as the government doesn’t try to cut spending, lay off thousands of workers, implement tariffs that will result in huge inflation and loss of exports due to tariffs in response. Other than that, and the whole overvalued market thing, I am 100% with you.
If the market is up and you dont sell does it matter? When retired and stocks are up. Take the cream off the top!
Top 2.5% (because there’s another 2.5% at the bottom for a total of 5% outside the 2 standard deviations)🙂
The common got his pocket picked, by inflating the economy with higher prices, corporate stock market rose, the economy struggled. In essence the stock market valuations came at the expense of the common man.
+2 SD puts you at 2.5%, not 5%. The other 2.5% is at -2 SD.
Nonetheless, I enjoy your videos. Please keep it up.
There is $7T in cash on the sidelines as we speak, the market’s going to go up more before the next correction.
Huge reason Wall Street should not take over social security and privatize it!!!
I think your view of government trust lacks significant perspective. All of the excess money taken in for SS over the past five decades and allocated to the social security trust fund has already been spent. Meanwhile now to meet obligations since payouts exceed SS receipts we are printing money and increasing debt. By borrowing this money the government is only paying interest rate of around 2.4% and this interest is financed through more debt which creates inflation making it essentially a zero if not negative return.
If instead these funds were invested in market it would grow U.S. economy creating more and better jobs and along with more taxes and the trust fund would not be running out of money in 10 years. The government and elected officials are NEVER to be trusted except by those who are even more reckless with their finances.
I had to sell some Apple because it's grown to be too big a component of my portfolio. It was simply a readjustment to maintain diversification. I don't believe we're headed for a big market correction in 2025. You have to book profits some times. That's why they call it "trading"!
People are in denial, as interest rates go up assets go down, simple as that. Once the real estate bubble pops fear will spread and remember that fear is stronger than greed.
Thank you.
It's good advice when you are less than 10 years from retirement and you did very well in the last years.
I think my new year's resolution will be to avoid doom and gloom You Tube videos.
Hide from reality, good plan.
@@tripod4482 NO HE's RIGHT---I"VE HEARD THE SAME BULLCRAP FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS AND ALL I'VE DONE IS HOLD MY WINNERS ALL ALONG---THAT SAID, I LOVE NEGATIVE VIDEOS LIKE THIS---MAKES ME REALIZE THE MARKET STILL HAS PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO.
Sorry, pal, predictions of the future arent "reality". If someone listened to these internet gurus, they would have sold years ago. The best advice is buy and ignire the internet. Have liquid funds so you dont have to sell in down markets. There. Done.
But they are so much fun!
@@MrProsat The charts shown are fact, hence reality pal.
The market has factored in inflation which isn't going away anytime soon
I personally believe that a few of the tech stocks are overvalued not the overall stock market.
The market was good for maybe a week. Even the market has attention span issues 😂
The real question is how long can it stay insanely overvalued.
A number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 65, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Mind if I ask you recommend this particular professional you use their service? i have quite a lot of marketing problems.
My advisor is Melissa Terri Swayne, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
thank you for this tip , I must say, Melissa appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
I'm going to wait for the next stock market crash before getting in and investing. Meanwhile while waiting, I'll take 4 percent interest on my savings.
That’s sort of what I am doing. +4% CDs for as long as I can get them. With the interest earned, I dump prudently into SCHD to help hedge the falling interest rates. I’m already retired so playing it as safe as I can.
I invested 90 thousand in Palantir 3 years ago I'm up 380 percent a pull back won't matter much. Buffet is a legend but a lot of retail investors have blown him away this year
You should be millionaire by now then. Might as well sell and buy index funds for compounding
there is a saying market कैन remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
Can I give my friend for the next 20 years the exclusion amount ever year to avoid filing Form 709, United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return?
Great Video!
I just assume that market will crash 30-40% at some point in time. If we're fortunate to invest during the dip then that's great. I'm also mindful that a lot of people also know to keep investing. When we retire we'll have to make do with whatever we have, just like we are doing today. If we don't have enough invested to retire then we'll have to keep working if we can.
I think 2025 will not go well for the stock market because of the adverse impacts of the Trump tariffs, the economic and social impacts of mass deportation and its cost in tens of billions of dollars, the reductions planned in Federal spending, Just the chaos that comes with a Trump Presidency.
So how should those of us that hit their retirement targets this year and are retiring in 90 days feel? Asking for a friend😉