Hey John... Hope you're having a wonderful WE. I can't find words to praise your work enough. I was thinking: how many people I know can go online EVERYDAY and attract hundred(s) thousand audience? Always interesting. Never disappoints. Thank you. You're a true friend.
3 minutes in and Dr. Campbell already sounds frustrated w/ the lack of studies on this important topic. Thank you Dr. Campbell as I, and millions others, share this frustration. 5 to 80%? Oh come on!
Theres no lack of studies!! Theres hundreds of scientists who have done studies based on real data & they are not being listened to! Any studies which do not support current government policy are being ignored. So much so that hundreds of top scientists from highly reputable institutions in both europe & US have now grouped together & are forming consortiums to try & get their findings heard.
@Big Deeper I'm totally bored with numbers and dubious per cent.. And I spend my time outdoors in the SUN instead of eating supplement from SHEEP wool.😊 This is how creams, soaps and vitamin D supplements are made! ruclips.net/video/nT5CEliSbMw/видео.html
Who is giving these videos a thumbs down? I can’t understand who can be unappreciative of an independent, unpartisan source of valuable information compiled by a man doing this voluntarily.
Kung: Those are MAGA trolls. They are anti-science, anti-medicine, and pro faith healing. They are entitled to their religion. What is objectionable is their rudeness, their hatred, and their determination to force their conspiracy theories on the rest if us because they lack a sense of global social psychology and basic physics and basic chemistry and a grasp of germ theory. By and large, they lack public schooling and are mostly 'trained' by non-degreed 'teachers'. They despise the public schools because of desegregation and turned against degreed teachers when social scientists reported a college education tended to produce Democrats. USA has been dealing with these people and their ancestors ever since the first slaves were brought into North America. Desegregation motivated these aspiring slave owners to relocate all over the nation.
@H Higgins The rioters are rioting because they have been left to rot by a system that does not give two shits about them. A correlation between down voters of this video and the riots in the US, and you're accusing other people of idiocy! You probably think that the war on terror was/is just and that the 3 trade towers fell due to fire, while accusing others of not understanding science/logic...
I suspect the holistic anti science anti vaxer conspiratardos but who knows. I think the rioters are too busy burning, looting and tweeting about that to watch Dr John
@@babblingalong7689 Unless you are in central Australia in summer in which case you have a 90% chance of being wrong. (30 degrees at midnight is not uncommon in January).
I really appreciate that at the beginning of every video you take a quick moment to state "if you want to skip this video"...and then give us the crux of your analysis. Oh, if only everybody would! BTW, most often I do not skip the vid. Thanks for giving us your perspective during this scary but fascinating time. Biology and Medical students will be studying this outbreak for generations to come.
As viral load appears to result in more severe infections, therefore even if wearing masks does not completely prevent infection, it will limit the load transmitted and received reducing sever infections. The U.K. should have made masks mandatory in public from day one. As we did with gas masks during WW2.
@@Justlookin958 Austria, Germany, Italy and Spain - face mask were made mandatory in shops and closed public places - the numbers are much lower. Italy was hit hard because of the high amount of older people with already existing conditions. I personally believe UK is behind - there is a high number of asymptomatic people who are spreading it without knowing, so with a face mask the spread would be lower.
joe scott not with the valve though, as the valve will allow air out of the front of the mask. If the wearer is infected, the valve allows the virus to escape.
Yeah....and the Vo’Euganeo "article" is one of them: There is no data, no reference but to a news article, where Romagnani claims to have the results of a study... Ok, after recursive search on Google found at least a pre-print NOT PEEE REVIEWED article about the study: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1 And also I misread, it was PCR tests...but the number sample size for the asymptomatic was 30 out of 73. They claim a 95%CI of 30...53% for ssymptomatic. Also that was a "snapshot" in time and no indication for follow UPS. So could be many pre-symptomatic in that group. They postet their data of the study and their model in github: github.com/ncov-ic/SEIR_Covid_Vo
An aspect he looks at later today, is how intensely micro-particulate pollution increases both the proportion of infections and much higher rates of symptoms and deaths. Perhaps that (along with vitamin D deficiencies) explains these numbers and their crazy variability? Shanghai, NYC would have had extremely high pollution, while I know nothing about that Italian town, but it might have had clear, clean skies? It's extremely hard to tell with so few studies!
Dr Campbell - You wondered why the Oxford group seemed to think the Vo'Eugeneo study was unreliable. Could it be that only a randomised study is considered reliable, and that a single village population is not a random sample of the broader population? (Maybe there is likely to be a higher level of genetic similarity in a village than globally; or there may be environmental reasons why the village produces a different proportion of asymptomatic cases than is the case generally.)
Thank you Dr. John Campbell for another important video. Appreciate your focus on evidence based research. I am sending love and hugs from Washington State, USA, Jeanne of In Loving Hands Counseling and ASMR.
There needs to be many large studies done to find a correlation between viral load of inocculation dose and the severity of symptoms - it seems that people infected with more viral particles/larger viral load get sicker (from what we've seen with healthy, young doctors dying). If this works the same way but in reverse - small viral loads causing asymptomatic sickness - then possibly this knowledge could be used to formulate a treatment or method to achieve herd immunity without losing thousands of lives and overwhelming hospitals.
Also as more spreader in population increase viral load within general population. Therefore increasing younger and healthy patients with complications or deaths, as disease progresses through the population. (Hope I’m making sense in what I’m trying to say). Ie beginning of pandemic older people die at peak younger die too. And there is arrangements for a study injecting small amounts of virus, just needs ethics approval.
Yes, the crooked science is an enemy. But it's only a political cudgel, really. The CCP ownership of liberal countries' politicians and media is the actual problem.
@JohanMDK The USA has had knives out for many years for WHO, UN, UNICEF, NATO etc., despite being signatories to these organizations for years, since they know that the body of evidence against the USA as a government that oppresses nations, it's own minority groups, which has an unfair and prejudicial police, legal, welfare, social security and health system, at both state and federal levels, forces foreign regime change, invades sovereign nations for its own political and economic aims, assassinates political leaders on overseas territories whether they are national or local leaders under the cover of preventing terrorism, and generally has little control over the most extreme of it's so-called citizens. It is corrupt from the top down. No better than many that are seen as rogue nations.
Thank you John for your valuable work and insight you continue to provide for us... there are so many of us that look forward to hearing from you every day... it’s certainly the highlight of my day, and many times I wait until later on in the day to view your latest video so I have something comforting to look forward to. As you mention, We need truly random testing as the best information will come from testing a random sample of people. Being random, it is representative of everyone. this would give valuable data on; what percentage of people have mild symptoms, what percentage of people are asymptomatic (and continue to be so) and what Percentage of people are already exposed The small-scale studies that Dr John mentions do raise questions; is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection? The British government has based its planning and policy for COVID-19 on the assumption that if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would eventually infect 80 percent of the population. That is a figure that seems to have been borrowed from planning for a flu pandemic. The sooner we have the result of more studies of random testing like that at Gangelt, the better a picture we have.
"This [study] is just not good enough, five months in" My hope for the future is that scientific research, collaboration and sensemaking will be ramped up on a global scale.
I’m a nurse, I’ve had Covid as has my husband and 2 children, fortunately all of us had mild illness, although my husbands illness lingered for 8 weeks, my 16yr old was completely asymptomatic my 19yr old only had very mild GI symptoms both would have been completely missed on clinical screening and only picked up on testing. Just emphasises the need to test more.
Absolutely right. *Test. Test. Test.* We've known it for months but in some countries it's still a shambles with the process being contracted out to companies completely unsuited to doing it.
Hi John,. When you say that "some people can be Asymptomatic for the entire duration",.. do we have any idea how long that could be,.. and how long they could remain infectious, ? we either need a complete testing system to detect the virus and antibodies,. or complete protection from infection/transmission. If there are two groups studying the same thing, and they product reports with conflicting or opposite results,. ...then we don't have a clue.
@Bear V, sadly we have suffered from "no real science" in many fields including medicine, diet and climate for at least 70 years, far longer than Twitter, Facebook, and RUclips have been present. Of course the problem can be traced back into the late 1800's by reviewing newspaper archives. It's pretty clear poor quality science has been with us for a long, long time! People remember the few triumphs and seem to forget all the times scientists said (or were reported to have said) something stupid.
"...not a clue" Many of my favorite professors were grindstone noser number crunchers, couldn't get them to look up from their religion. When forced to glimpse greater realities, they grimaced with fear like little birds loosing perch grip.
You are wonderful Dr. Campbell. You provide honest, unbiased information. You are a wonderful teacher. I have learned so much from you and passed it forward.
The result of your excellent video. We are just in the beginning of the beginning of this pandemic. The problem is people get laxity. People don’t wear masks, no social distance. To much people in parks etc. Etc. Result: new big wave. And after that people asking how is it possible. Well simple. They didn’t listen to you. Have a nice day SIR
Doctor; the Japanese seem to have done quite well in this whole situation, with low rates of spread and deaths. This could be due to cleanliness or innate distancing - but could it also be due to high vitamin D levels due to high consumption of oily fish/sushi?
Doctor, I've been following your videos during the virus. Thank you for sharing reasonable information using understandable means. Kindest regards, Keith
@Dr Jhon Campbell Vo Euganeo study is good, but has it has not been peer reviewed (that is to say evaluated by other scientists )to the best of my knowledge. Note for the tin foils hats people : no conspiracy here because peer review is a very long processby definition. The bottom line is what is true in Vo Euganeo (50 -75 % asymptomatic ) might not be true elsewhere. How we find out how many asymptomatic are in UK? 1) We test everybody in UK ( not feasible because it will take months) 2) We take a sample that is representative of the UK population and we test them . Bottom line :No matter what we have to do testing: if we want clear answers in order to be proactive. So far the approach can be summarized in few words: random acts of management
Good point. My personal useless observation having lived in different communities - brought up in small rural village during 1950's -1960's - pop ~ 200 - most people had short interactions with each other on daily basis - "Hello & comment on the weather". Shopping for basics - brought by to us by vans. Church attendance low. Pub attandance low. City - much of it "dormitory" - minimal social interaction - but very high exposure to large numbers of others eg when shopping, town centre, going to, or leaving place of work, pubs, clubs, discos. Much use of overcrowded commuter trains with prolonged exposure - 1 hour to London. Sparse scattered population in North (Same latitude as Cape Cod Greenland large variation in day light hours) - Shetland island complex. Isolated geographically. Little grouping during summer - work outdoors - small scale fishing & crofting, now tourism, but much crowded group interaction during winter - virtually no pubs, get together most long evenings, mainly in homes, community halls. The main cause of spread of respiratory viral disease was the centralised secondary school. Most teenagers lived at school for 5 days & went home at w/e - lived in very close proximity for 5 days. Point - in the UK people can interact very differently in terms of opportunity for viral transmission of different viral loads, in different types of population & we do not know the infecting dose. I tentatively wonder whether this could be one of the factors for the results from Vo Euganeo? I also wonder about the awareness of some researchers of these differences. IMO one has to live as a member of a community for about 2-3 years to begin to be aware of these factors.
The Vo study was mainly a very small sample size of infected. I recall that of the 3000 tested, fewer than 70 tested positive in a PCR test not a serological antibody test. That 50%-75% is a subset of that 70 - not of the 3000.
@@wahtafule yes. 340 out of 73 with no follow up, so could also be pre-symptomatic. Here's the link to the pre-preint: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1 Here's the link to their GitHub with data and algorithms used: github.com/ConniCia/SEIR_Covid_Vo P.S: Ok, they "claim" to have followed up, but did only two surveys between 23.02. and 08.03. (14 days), so they could still miss pre-symptomatics. On the GitHub is a xlsx with the data, if someone want to take a look at it. P.P.S.: Some stuff doesn't match the paper. a) 68 entries have positive for first test in the xlsx, but in the paper they claim 73 b) 37 of these had no symptoms at first survey, but 9 of them were pre-symptomatic (had symptoms at second survey). The paper claims 30 asympotmatic. Two of the 28 that were classified as "no-symptoms" have listed "rhinitis" as "other symptoms", which is listed in Germany (RKI) as a non-frequent symptom (5%). So basically it were 26. So it was ~38,2% a-symptomatic and 13,2% pre-symptomatic. But still, with no follow up later there could be still some pre-symptomatic. Also, some of the patients could have missed the mild symptoms. With that low number of samples and these limits (missed mild symptoms and short time-range/no extra follow up) the confidence interval is probably too small for their assumption of 29.7-53.2% asymptomatic ratio. Adjusted CI (without taking into account of pre-symptomatic/missed mild cases) for binominal assumption (that they use in the paper): 26.7%...50.8%
Dr Campbell the study on Asymptomatic population was published on Sole 24 Ore, on 16 of April, done in Vo (Veneto- italy , former red zone) 43% of the infected and positive to the tests were asymptomatic- source “study suppression of Covid-19 outbreak in the municipality of Vo, Italy(PrePrint Med XIV). To be peer reviewed.
afnium I think the issue here is that there will never be a hard or useful percentage of asymptomatic infected because it's down to inoculate viral load, and a number of other factors. Trying to look for a valid number that can be extrapolated from I fear is a complete waste of everybody's time...
I think a lot of studies seem to not follow individuals long enough to figure out if they are presymptomatic or asymptomatic and are kinda blending both together a bit.
@@donethos 100 years from now when medical historians look back at this pandemic they'll shake their heads thinking - these guys had very primitive medical technology. Just like we think of the Spanish flu.
If we rely on testing for symptoms only then we miss ALL those who are asymptomatic. John, you are the only person on youtube who follows the evidence vigorously. Thank you
i must admit i have been growing more worried by this whole situation as time goes on , i am amazed at photos of people crowding on beaches and not worried one bit as one person said on the news “ im fed up with it all and don’t bother anymore to listen to any of the advice im just being normal now “ we all are low and feeling the strain but people with that position are so dangerous to us all . just my thoughts.
Totally agree with you, I've got more concerned as the weeks go on and the people who are crowded on beaches being asymptomatic. I just class anyone outside is infected so keep well away and wear a mask. Virus spray in car with hand gel and wipes! You just cant let your guard down xx
@@reneruim8844 I'm not taking any chances! I've a huge garden so am outside for fresh air and exercise, I dont need to take any risks especially with an underlying health problem xx
3 years for the 1918 flu. The previous flu pandemic occurred in 1889, before the industrial age kept everyone inside and Vitamin D deficient causing rickets.
My gut feeling is that the higher range numbers probably include cases with very minor symptoms and the lower range numbers probably include cases with medically detectable symptoms which a patient might otherwise not notice.
@@freeandcriticalthinker4431 perhaps some people have been given immunity from exposure to a similar virus...hence the inconsistency. That idea should be investigated.
Dr., always thought this is an exemplary usage of the RUclips platform. Anywho, Dr., is there a litmus test for being "asymptomatic"? Or, is there a hazy spectrum from asymptomatic at one end and symptomatic on the other end?
Strictly speaking, asymopromatic is defined as no symptoms whatsoever, so this does not cover feeling "a bit off today", or "not quite right but can't put my finger on it" etc etc, As any repair guy will tell you elusive intermittent or asymptomatic fault causes are the hardest to find.
Easy to have confusion here. This time of year has a lot of Spring Colds and Allergies. Their mild symptoms can be mistaken for the virus. Only definitive answer is the virus test...if the test itself is trustworthy.
CDC saying that risk of transmission is highest in symptomatic phase maybe because one of the symptom is coughing which increases viral shedding, while in asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people viral shedding though present is only by talking.🙂
Thanks again John for talking through the studies. I think that the problem with the studies is that most are snapshots and few have daily follow-up of the participants. So we dont know whether participants are asymptomatic for the entire duration or belatedly get symptoms and should therefore be considered presymptomatic. Your quote that people are a formidable source of infection from the Italian study should be always borne in mind.
I wish testing for anosmia had been done before declaring a person asymptomatic. If it's airborne and I breath through my nose, my first infected cells should be in my nose, and I might not notice my anosmia unless I am a young female putting on perfume. As always I find your excellent work refreshing as well as most helpful.
John, what is the Cochrane Library: Cochrane Reviews data and review reports on this or is it too soon for them? Another great video - I wish I found you earlier when I was working with junior doctors and nurses you channel would be a great resource
Yep. Keep digging! You’re on the right track in questioning all this research going on, why some studies are ignored and others extolled. We should have a couple more answers by this point!
Ive got the long tail covid 19 , apparently, just over two months into it 😭 I’m getting better, but I still have the lungs of a chain smoking humming bird 🤒 I hope to hear more about long tail symptoms in the future as my GP really has no information on it at all . 😎👍
I had this and so did the wife after contracting the virus (we strongly assume - no test yet) in early February. Six weeks later we were still crackling and coughing - highly embarrassing when you're trying to get supplies in at Tesco. It does eventually go away though.
I live in a small town, Waverly, Tennessee. I still don't know if anyone here has had it. Folks were good at only going out as needed & half wears mask's. I stay home cept taking my son to work an back. I only get on here to listen. Wish they had a map that showed how many cases are in each city but I can't find one... Thanks doc🐰 Blessed health to all from America💗💗💗💗
Donna Gaynelle Palk Turner, Go to your state's Public Health Department Website and you may see the cases listed by counties. But realise these are only for people who tested positive for COVID-19 and deaths of COVID-19. Remember that someone could be an asymptomatic carrier of COVID-19, have no symptoms, be infected and pass it on to you. Because they have no symptoms, they may not realise that they are infected and contagious. So please take precautions. Wear a good fitting mask in public places, especially grocery stores. Wash your hands, and or wear gloves and consider surfaces contaminated. Stay well Dear One. I am sending love and hugs from Washington State, USA, Jeanne of In Loving Hands Counseling and ASMR.
@@jeannestandley-kinata824 I go to Micrsoft's coronavirus news. They have a map of each county, listing active cases, recovered cases and deaths. Also, Johns Hopkins website has similiar numbers by county.
I have a friend in a smallish town in Canada. His GP told him definitively that nobody in town has it - apparently he has a crystal ball. All it takes is one person to bring it back and spread it. Where I am they don't give us any idea of exactly which community has it either so we just have to assume we all do!
I live in a small town in North Carolina. We also have no confirmed cases. Several nursing homes in neighboring towns have cases. We also have a chicken plant 10 miles away that had a big outbreak last month, but still none here. Maybe we're all asymptomatic carriers? If my family has to get it, I hope we are asymptomatic and never even know it.
The difficulty is the order in which tests were developed in the working world. We began by telling people not to come in unless they had symptoms. If we had begun by testing everyone, we'd know the proportion of those who did, and who didn't , later develop symptoms. But that didn't happen, except in rare cases like the Diamond Princess. Now we have reached the stage of having antibody tests, we're discovering people who test positive for antibodies but who say they can't think of when they felt any symptoms. That means some asymptomatic infections, but we just don't have that early data for comparative study. Just not there.
@@GOLEMUK In Canada they are still ONLY testing hospitalized cases...if you are sick at home you are just told to isolate of your own volition with no test. Of course they cant be forced to do so without knowledge if they have it or not, or if they recently travelled...so people just carry on as normal. It's absolutely bonkers the lack of urgency the health authorities have for this, and things are starting to reopen rapidly. Canada will continue to suffer for a while due to straight up stupidity.
@@thepanda9782 Yes, the government response in Canada has been horrible. Why could they not follow the example of many countries that are doing it right. The lack of testing is unacceptable and negligent. Now that cases have leveled off, and not decreased dramatically, they want to reopen many businesses! Poor, poor choices and direction overall. This could have all been handled so much better ad with much less loss of life and with less detrimental effects to the economy.
Yeah they forgot. For example, their upset stomach, but of diarrhea one night, or the weird smell experiences were not significant ehlnough to remember.
all these studies seem perfectly consistent, the older the population in the study the greater proportion of assymptomatic cases. 8% in a nursing home 30% in travelers (presumably adults) up to 75% population based (which includes a lot of children i’m sure). I think the EBM crew doesn’t like it because of the variance but when all put together like this it makes perfect sense... Thanks Dr C!
@@Campbellteaching I believe that would be Voy-oh-GAH-nyoh, John. Reference; my father was a polyglot, Italian being one of the languages he had fun using if he wanted to confuse my mother!
A great honest man. Here it is June, almost, and 3 months of huge number of cases in the world. What a mess we have in all authorities that we do not have this critically important number, or range of likelyhoods. For it is very important for public health management and "re-opening" to know and act upon.
Dr. Campbell I was diagnosed with Covid 4/16 after being sick for nearly a week and a half. My doctor kept telling me I had bronchitis, till I got tested. I'm in my fifties, overweight, I have diabetes, high blood pressure and asthma. I'm STILL sick - I've had multiple rounds of antibiotics, I've had multiple scripts for steroids, but I'm still wheezing, still waking up at night with coughing fits, still get winded going up stairs. I've had a chest x ray last week - nothing. I haven't had an asthma episode for YEARS till Covid. I read about people who suffer with LONG Covid recoveries, some for months, but wanted to know if you've heard of this.
Hello from UK. My work colleague.. .. Fit 45yr old and her 11yr old daughter became ill 17th March. Flu like symptoms slight fever. They went on to have tight chest breathing problems...fatigue..sore throat...loss of smell and taste. They were told to self isolate...they did for 14 days. Went to doctors afterwards ... No covid test available ... Bloods showed nothing ... Stayed home again. As of today they are still not fit ... both have days when they feel wiped out again and these symptoms have been with them and forming since 17th March. They were tested 6 weeks in but were told it was too long after symptoms started so would be a negative result ... Which it was ...negative. They have had antibiotics in this time but they didn't help....there are people like this who have it for months... She says she now feels like an asthmatic....
Kate i must check this out as well. I was sick for 2 months. My own fault as when i was better i went for a walk and it was a cold day. The air hit my lungs and it really hurt and i may have gotten a secondary lung infection. Today i have good lung function except pollen which could be a bit troubling before covid 19 now can actually make my lungs hurt again. Also air pollution can do this as well. . Have no doctor and i am sure they wouldnt know anyway.. i just keep doing my breathing exercises and hope this will disappear eventually. My energy is back and everything else is normal. I am a healthy 67 year old Canadian other than allergies. Strange virus...... 🙏
Dr John. You've warned that a second wave could be devastating, particularly if it hits at the same time as a seasonal flu epidemic. Germany was in the middle of one of the worst flu epidemics for years when Coronavirus arrived; but instead of having one of the highest death rates in Europe (which one might expect) they have suffered one of the lowest. Is it possible that recent exposure to seasonal flu could have provided a degree of protection?
That's what I think What scares me.is BILL GATES TYPE PPL. WANT TO FORCE SOME SORT OF CHIP THAT CAN BE TRACKED BY THE GOVERNMENT ?? YOU DONT KNOW SHIT!# ARE YOU CRAZY!!!
I was wondering the same exact thing. I thought that perhaps the immune system was already ramped up from seasonal flu for those recovered and then exposed to covid19. Would love to know what the doctor thinks about that.
Seasonal flu was also bad last year, but likely it was bad because CV19 was causing the deaths. CV19 is likely killing the same people the seasonal flu would kill. If your vulnerable to the seasonal flu, you are vulnerable to CV19, if you are not vulnerable to the flu, you are safe from CV19 with the rare exception. I highly doubt there is going to be a second wave, as this has been spreading faster and sooner then past pandemics. We are using models from past pandemics that do not work for this one. There is already a large portion of the population that had CV19 but don't know it.
This is EXACTLY why I listen to John Campbell. His research and due consideration is clear and concise and is of consideration for me in planning out 2-6 months. and taking the appropriate steps to protect me and my loved ones. This man is an INTERNATIONAL TREASURE for English speakers.
Everything he says is available to you to research yourself, but you are to lazy to do it. So he does it, dont make him special in any way, shape or form. Reading the research of others and putting it in a video is not groundbreaking research.
Thank you for your research, Dr Campbell. I also feel your frustration at all this vague and sometimes contradictory data. Do keep us informed as always, though!
Asymptomatic carriers are people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 and would test positive for COVID-19 If tested, yet are not exhibiting symptoms at the time. They are actively shedding virus particles out of their noses and mouths when they exhale, cough and breathe. Shedding large quanties of viral RNA out of their noses and mouths and in urine and feces. They are highly contagious and infectious. They spread the virus on to others and DO NOT EVEN REALISE THEY ARE SICK because they have no symptoms of COVID-19. No fever, no sore throat, no headache, no cough, perhaps a loss of smell or loss of taste but these symptoms are often not noticed by the person. THIS IS WHY ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS ARE SO DANGEROUS. They are spreading COVID-19 in the community. This is why just taking a person's temperature to determine if they have COVID-19 does not work. Asymptomatic carriers do not have fevers. You cannot just look at a person and determine whether or not they have COVID-19. I hope this helps. I am sending love and hugs from Washington State, USA, Jeanne of In Loving Hands Counseling and ASMR.
It varies greatly from person to person how infectious they are and how ill they get and it don't seem to be much of a correlation between how ill someone get and how infectious they get. So sometimes yea, sometimes not so much....
Dr C - do we have any idea what the sero-conversion time is? If someone has had a mild infection say three weeks ago, at what point would they stop testing positive for antigen and start to have detectable levels of antibody? Thanks - you're doing an awesome job x
Your body generally start producing antibodies within a few days of infection, and then within a week or so your body might also have ramped up the production of it to full capacity. But the test for the virus is a completely different animal and only picks up free-floating RNA, that stuff won't last long in the bloodstream even if you aren't producing antibodies, so it comes from swabs in your nose. Free-floating RNA is harmless outside of a cell, it's from some virus that failed to assemble correctly or that has been pulled into pieces already by various processes. Your antibodies and immune system in general will therefore ignore those things. Meanwhile clumps of antibodies and intact viral particles in the same area are exactly the sort of thing your immune system will diligently clean away. So the end result is that in your bloodstream antibodies will start to show up way before you have recovered from the illness and stopped being infectious, while that RNA in your nose might hang around for quite a while after you have recovered and stopped being infectious.
Dr. John - I never want to "skip" your videos ! Always stimulating to the mind. However, I was a bit surprised that you didn't mention the antibody survey in New York - perhaps the parameters didn't fit exactly into your topic here? Anyway, New York randomly surveyed 3000 people as described in "1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest" [Goodman and Rothfield, The New York Times, Apr 23, 2020]. The article also mentions that two other antibody studies in California found a much lower exposure rate of only 4-5% in that state. So, as you say, 'I can fairly definitively tell you .. (the rate) is between 5 and 80%'. Exactly so !!
My 97 yo aunt, who has hypertension and diabetes, lives in a nursing home and tested positive and has no symptoms. Almost all of the residents of her home have tested positive, some with symptoms some without. Of 80 residents, 3 have died with covid -19. This symptomatic testing only has frustrated me all along. People think they are ok, and not shedding virus.
This was helpful. Please share your opinion of asymptotic spread, some studies are saying it’s less common than first believed, and if original estimates were true we would have a lot more infections than we actually do.
I think it's because we've been watching the news, and the Dr.'s channel, over and over again... I've been watching the news much more intensively now than I did before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Hello Dr John , I was wondering if you could address a question, i think its one that would interest you too . I have Adrenal Insufficiency so i dont make any cortisol , therefore i have to take Hydrocortisone 5 times a day to stay alive. Now i know my immune system would be compromised BUT if i got sick badly with Cronavirus would the fact that my cortisol is from a bottle which i control (double and triple dosing re sick day rules) could this actually help me fight the virus as i've heard Corticosteroids mentioned frequently in months past re Coronavirus . Thank You :) I always watch your videos and have done since January .
Also Dr John, i was also keen to find out if virus effected people actually had a reduced adrenal response , but my guess is NOBODY checks cortisol levels in seriously ill covid-19 patients .
My whole family has Adrenal insufficiency. Husband, , self and 2 children all have CAH . Scared to death for my family to catch this and how we would fair being we are immunocompromised . We each take various doses of Hydrocortisone,Prednisone and Dexamethasone.
@@michelegraves557 , i'm SAI due to pituitary damage from a Rathkes Cleft Cyst and mostly take Cortate Acetate (is like a faster acting Pred), Yes we are immune compromised due to the steroids . I want to know if we have a fighting chance and if adrenal function becomes reduced in otherwise normal people that are seriously ill with Covid-19 as they look at the lungs etc as the key element but was wondering if cortisol played a part too as its hard enough for us with Adrenal Insufficiency to get treatment for an Adrenal Crisis in a hospital even without us being sick with Covid-19 , so was kinda wondering if seriously ill people with Covid-19 had low cortisol as it would give us a fighting chance and might save a few other people ! Wow that your whole family has CAH !
Could some older people be asymptomatic? I’m 68 and before the lockdown, before we knew the no sense of smell and no sense of taste was a symptom I was with my daughter and she had these symptoms with a slight fever and headache. Her daughter (6) had symptoms of a mild cold the week before. Her teenage/adult sons had colds and her husband had extreme fatigue and pains in his chest. He even had an ecg. (He’s fine). Yet despite being with them for lots of time I didn’t get the ‘cold’. I have been taking vit d3 for more than a year. It was 1000iu but upped it to 2000iu on your suggestion Dr. I also take pre and pro biotics.
A woman I follow on another forum is in Birmingham. Her husband was in hospital with Covid-19 at the peak but neither she nor her son contracted it. Compare that to how a common cold or a tummy bug whizzes through an entire family group and its hard to make sense of it all.
Prepare, don't panic. Eat a whole food plant based diet, get enough sleep, exercise and reduce stress. Take care of yourself and each other. We can't rely on corporations and governments.
Imgay Asheck says the account using RUclips to give that advice. But yeah, broadly agree. Never been more healthy since I turned vegan two years ago, definitely agree on sleep and stress too.
@@davidmowbray4230 what are you talking about? There is lots of evidence, on the other hand carnivores literally only have anecdotes. You seem to be living in opposite land. Stop being anti-science.
I have never been more healthy since corona virus happened! I am taking 16 grams of vitamin C a day, 20,000 ius or whatever they are called of vitamin D3 plus a whole array of other vitamins and supplements. But I do need to work on more sleep!
I love the up front bottom line. Thankyou - refreshing! But i love your calming, charming Britishness, and great info. There may be people with immunity from having been exposed in the past to something similar. That was the case for Spanish flue. So there may not be a standard % of asymptomatic, may depend on previous exposures, will be different in each location. During the Spanish Flue, some were given immunity from a low level virus pandemic 25 years eariler. But they were still contagious! Many only got marginally ill from Spanish Flue, hardly any symptoms...sounds familiar.
Thanks for keeping us informed. Id like more education on two important things: a) how does the initial viral dose relate to disease severity? If there is a lose-dose-low-severity correlation then that is an additional reason to wear a mask, clean surfaces, wash hands, open windows, etc: even if you do contract the disease, you may get it milder. And b) there are suggestions that even people who were already infected could worsen their situation by hanging out and sneezing or coughing in each other's presence. (So cohort nursing is probably not a good idea). Dr Alex Rai from NHS circulated a letter from a colleague suggesting this. Any insights or information would be interesting...
There is no need for a reliable test covid-19 is not highly infectious nor has it got a high mortality rate.. RUclips Lord Sumption BBC interview on lockdown. An actual voice of reason at last....and inadvertently show it's all been rubbish. The pantomime continues as a face saving exercise...and a roll out of what can only be described as Orwellian rules and laws...and John Campbell is either a willing idiot or a megalomaniac who is STILL calling for these rule to be deployed. -Jonathan Philip Chadwick Sumption, Lord Sumption, OBE, PC, FSA, FRHistS (born 9 December 1948), is a British author, medieval historian and former senior judge.Sworn in as a Justice of the Supreme Court on 11 January 2012, succeeding The Lord Collins of Mapesbury, -Dr Vernon Coleman MB ChB DSc FRSA... -UK gov's website 19th march placed covid-19 as a non a high consequence infectious disease (HCID). -Office of national statistics.
You see a huge range of data from 15-16 percent up to three quarters. Of course influenza isn't just one virus and it mutates regularly so that figure is naturally pretty variable. But I think it's worth noting that the novel virus has an infectious period of up to twice influenza's. A longer infectious period + asymptomatic spread is a major boon for an infectious disease. And of course while we still don't have exact morality figures on Covid-19, it is quite apparent now that Covi is significantly deadlier.
@@Susie2607 agreed even if its IFR is just 1% to 2% double that with kife changing effects of cronic lung and kidney damage it's transmissibility means many will die. If there are less asymptomatic then it is far more deadly, and many will die
Am not gunna lie the more I hear about the virus the less concerned I actually am. The media have stirred up a frenzy. I know 6 people who have had it who have fully recovered.
@@themagicbeard9432 If the mortality rate is 1% then it's likely that 6 out of 6 people will recover. However if let's say 100 people get it then it's likely that atleast 1 person will die. If 1 billion people get it then 10 million will die, and that's assuming hospitals don't get overwhelmed.
I think that Dr. Campbell discusses other countries' agencies in context. His videos compare the situation in different countries, and data from different countries. The American situation, and its CDC has been mentioned several times, and is also mentioned within this vid.
Its 1-3%. Note in NZ (we have had no new cases in whole country for about a week now) , Taiwan, Australia, Isreal .Death rate is approx 1.4% All this nonsense about 0.2% is for people under age 35.
It would be nice to have a study that also differentiates between people that are asymptomatic who remain asymptomatic, and those people asymptomatic only at the onset of the infection, but who develop symptoms later. I'd also like to know whether the testing is showing false positives. Accurate antibody testing in the future might answer some of these questions. Right now the emphasis is on antigen testing.
A taste test everyday is so easy to do. I use dark choccolate. I also do smell test with the Lovely lilas. With this strategy I know I am healthy and not asymptomatic. It would be beyond horrific if I was asymptomatic and gave the virus to my loved ones. That risk I refuse to take therefor taste and smell test for me everyday. So far during all months I have passed the test.
Fantastic commonsense advice. And anyone who washes their hands with anything that has a noticeable fragrance or smell, like a scented handwash or even a 60% Alcohol solution, should also be aware and mindful of the smell when they do that. Dark Chocolate also has many proven benefits for health, in moderation of course. It contains a decent amount of soluble fiber and is loaded with minerals. Dark chocolate (ideally with with 70-85% cocoa) contains, fiber, iron, magnesium, copper, manganese. It also has plenty of potassium, phosphorus, zinc and selenium Of course, 100 grams (3.5 ounces) is a fairly large amount and not something you should be consuming every day in that quantity. All these nutrients also come with calories and moderate amounts of sugar. So again, in moderation, a delicious and very wise choice.
The difference in those studies is the group of people tested. In Vò Euganeo, and only there, they tested almost the whole population of the town, not just a selected group. That is why this is the best study available.
AGAIN THANX Dr Campbell for this very important topic. I guess this number of 40 % asymptomatic is extremely alarming to fight this covid 19 pandemic. I hope the WHO Will be very serious about this problem......If we don,t take this in account, we Will never be able to fight this pandemic effectively....Simply because this number is far to high to ignore. Gr Hans
Religious places are opening up around the world. ⛪️🕌🕍 With asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people situation can get worse. Can't understand why people don't stay at home and pray, or is it that they want to be close to their God… quite literally.😶
Don’t stop John. You are one of the few truthful voices who has guided us in being safe and educated. Thank you Sir.
Yes I agree
Maybe if he uses real terms like plandemic from BillGatesDeadlyVirus & ToxicVaccine Depopulation Corporation.
2020 calendar: January, February, quarantine, December
brilliant.
Funny ...
There probably won't be a cure or a vaccine before the end of this year.
Hey John...
Hope you're having a wonderful WE.
I can't find words to praise your work enough.
I was thinking: how many people I know can go online EVERYDAY and attract hundred(s) thousand audience?
Always interesting. Never disappoints.
Thank you. You're a true friend.
3 minutes in and Dr. Campbell already sounds frustrated w/ the lack of studies on this important topic. Thank you Dr. Campbell as I, and millions others, share this frustration. 5 to 80%? Oh come on!
Theres no lack of studies!! Theres hundreds of scientists who have done studies based on real data & they are not being listened to! Any studies which do not support current government policy are being ignored. So much so that hundreds of top scientists from highly reputable institutions in both europe & US have now grouped together & are forming consortiums to try & get their findings heard.
Most of the studies are BS. It's like global warming. The whole scam is based on an assertion that won't hold up to close inspection.
@@neil5209 I was going to say the same thing. There are many studies now. Although the _data_ that we have is still not a lot.
@Big Deeper I'm totally bored with numbers and dubious per cent.. And I spend my time outdoors in the SUN instead of eating supplement from SHEEP wool.😊
This is how creams, soaps and vitamin D supplements are made! ruclips.net/video/nT5CEliSbMw/видео.html
@Big Deeper .... I'm wondering why you bother to be here. ??
Just in: 'Between 5% and 80% of all societal institutions testing positive for incompetence may be dysfunctional'...
Who is giving these videos a thumbs down? I can’t understand who can be unappreciative of an independent, unpartisan source of valuable information compiled by a man doing this voluntarily.
Kung: Those are MAGA trolls. They are anti-science, anti-medicine, and pro faith healing. They are entitled to their religion. What is objectionable is their rudeness, their hatred, and their determination to force their conspiracy theories on the rest if us because they lack a sense of global social psychology and basic physics and basic chemistry and a grasp of germ theory. By and large, they lack public schooling and are mostly 'trained' by non-degreed 'teachers'.
They despise the public schools because of desegregation and turned against degreed teachers when social scientists reported a college education tended to produce Democrats.
USA has been dealing with these people and their ancestors ever since the first slaves were brought into North America. Desegregation motivated these aspiring slave owners to relocate all over the nation.
@H Higgins The rioters are rioting because they have been left to rot by a system that does not give two shits about them. A correlation between down voters of this video and the riots in the US, and you're accusing other people of idiocy! You probably think that the war on terror was/is just and that the 3 trade towers fell due to fire, while accusing others of not understanding science/logic...
I suspect the holistic anti science anti vaxer conspiratardos but who knows. I think the rioters are too busy burning, looting and tweeting about that to watch Dr John
they are the people who are trying to hide truth
Between 5 - 80%, boy that narrows it down a bit. Like Colonel Sanders would say "most folks".
@Kate Yeah. Just like you're almost always right when you say, tomorrow it'll be between -5 and 30 degrees celcius.
@@babblingalong7689 Unless you are in central Australia in summer in which case you have a 90% chance of being wrong. (30 degrees at midnight is not uncommon in January).
@@allangibson8494 That's incredible.
75% range!
It’s about as informative as an Amazon delivery time slot
I really appreciate that at the beginning of every video you take a quick moment to state "if you want to skip this video"...and then give us the crux of your analysis.
Oh, if only everybody would!
BTW, most often I do not skip the vid.
Thanks for giving us your perspective during this scary but fascinating time. Biology and Medical students will be studying this outbreak for generations to come.
As viral load appears to result in more severe infections, therefore even if wearing masks does not completely prevent infection, it will limit the load transmitted and received reducing sever infections. The U.K. should have made masks mandatory in public from day one. As we did with gas masks during WW2.
@@Justlookin958
Austria, Germany, Italy and Spain - face mask were made mandatory in shops and closed public places - the numbers are much lower.
Italy was hit hard because of the high amount of older people with already existing conditions.
I personally believe UK is behind - there is a high number of asymptomatic people who are spreading it without knowing, so with a face mask the spread would be lower.
I honestly feel they want the disease to be there so they can test the Oxford Vaccine. I may be wrong but I have strange feeling this is what it is.
Get a 3 m respirator that can do 99.7 of all particles with a margin of error of 10 percent for fit. Best thing u can wear right now
joe scott not with the valve though, as the valve will allow air out of the front of the mask. If the wearer is infected, the valve allows the virus to escape.
I don't think there is any evidence regarding viral loads, it is merely assumption.
"some questionable research out there" - understatement of the century!!!
For proof... read book called: good calories, bad calories.
.
Yeah....and the Vo’Euganeo "article" is one of them:
There is no data, no reference but to a news article, where Romagnani claims to have the results of a study...
Ok, after recursive search on Google found at least a pre-print NOT PEEE REVIEWED article about the study:
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1
And also I misread, it was PCR tests...but the number sample size for the asymptomatic was 30 out of 73.
They claim a 95%CI of 30...53% for ssymptomatic.
Also that was a "snapshot" in time and no indication for follow UPS.
So could be many pre-symptomatic in that group.
They postet their data of the study and their model in github:
github.com/ncov-ic/SEIR_Covid_Vo
ruclips.net/video/DHOoqdkj4Zs/видео.html
An aspect he looks at later today, is how intensely micro-particulate pollution increases both the proportion of infections and much higher rates of symptoms and deaths.
Perhaps that (along with vitamin D deficiencies) explains these numbers and their crazy variability? Shanghai, NYC would have had extremely high pollution, while I know nothing about that Italian town, but it might have had clear, clean skies?
It's extremely hard to tell with so few studies!
My wife: “did you finish off the chocolate in the fridge?”
Me: “I may have eaten between 5 and 80% of it 😑
Hahaha!!!
Dr Campbell - You wondered why the Oxford group seemed to think the Vo'Eugeneo study was unreliable. Could it be that only a randomised study is considered reliable, and that a single village population is not a random sample of the broader population? (Maybe there is likely to be a higher level of genetic similarity in a village than globally; or there may be environmental reasons why the village produces a different proportion of asymptomatic cases than is the case generally.)
Thank you Dr. John Campbell for another important video. Appreciate your focus on evidence based research. I am sending love and hugs from Washington State, USA, Jeanne of In Loving Hands Counseling and ASMR.
There needs to be many large studies done to find a correlation between viral load of inocculation dose and the severity of symptoms - it seems that people infected with more viral particles/larger viral load get sicker (from what we've seen with healthy, young doctors dying). If this works the same way but in reverse - small viral loads causing asymptomatic sickness - then possibly this knowledge could be used to formulate a treatment or method to achieve herd immunity without losing thousands of lives and overwhelming hospitals.
That kind of treatment is called variolation, the precursor to vaccines. I'd sign up for it. Rushed vaccine, not so much
of corse the more the worse. I do not need a doctor to explain that. Point is, we need medication .
Interesting!
@@orenrob1914 just have cough for coronna...
Also as more spreader in population increase viral load within general population. Therefore increasing younger and healthy patients with complications or deaths, as disease progresses through the population. (Hope I’m making sense in what I’m trying to say). Ie beginning of pandemic older people die at peak younger die too.
And there is arrangements for a study injecting small amounts of virus, just needs ethics approval.
The whole world needs to work together on this 1 enemy 1 aim
Yes, the crooked science is an enemy. But it's only a political cudgel, really. The CCP ownership of liberal countries' politicians and media is the actual problem.
The real enemy here is the people behind the curtain who had the power to shut down the global economy.
@@thankmelater1254 Thank you for your service agent! Your country salutes you!
@JohanMDK The USA has had knives out for many years for WHO, UN, UNICEF, NATO etc., despite being signatories to these organizations for years, since they know that the body of evidence against the USA as a government that oppresses nations, it's own minority groups, which has an unfair and prejudicial police, legal, welfare, social security and health system, at both state and federal levels, forces foreign regime change, invades sovereign nations for its own political and economic aims, assassinates political leaders on overseas territories whether they are national or local leaders under the cover of preventing terrorism, and generally has little control over the most extreme of it's so-called citizens. It is corrupt from the top down. No better than many that are seen as rogue nations.
In a perfect world. I wish that it could happen, unfortunately Covid has highlighted the utter stupid and selfishness of some people and governments.
Thank you John for your valuable work and insight you continue to provide for us... there are so many of us that look forward to hearing from you every day... it’s certainly the highlight of my day, and many times I wait until later on in the day to view your latest video so I have something comforting to look forward to.
As you mention, We need truly random testing as the best information will come from testing a random sample of people. Being random, it is representative of everyone.
this would give valuable data on; what percentage of people have mild symptoms, what percentage of people are asymptomatic (and continue to be so) and what Percentage of people are already exposed
The small-scale studies that Dr John mentions do raise questions; is there a ceiling on the number of people who are prone to be infected with the disease? Do many of us have some kind of natural protection against infection?
The British government has based its planning and policy for COVID-19 on the assumption that if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would eventually infect 80 percent of the population. That is a figure that seems to have been borrowed from planning for a flu pandemic.
The sooner we have the result of more studies of random testing like that at Gangelt, the better a picture we have.
"This [study] is just not good enough, five months in" My hope for the future is that scientific research, collaboration and sensemaking will be ramped up on a global scale.
The pharma cabal is not interested in making sense. Only in manipulating the masses with fear.
It won't. Sense has left this world for good. Look at the other comment, for example.
It wont
Thanks for all you put into this, Dr. Campbell. It's good to hear your voice.
I’m a nurse, I’ve had Covid as has my husband and 2 children, fortunately all of us had mild illness, although my husbands illness lingered for 8 weeks, my 16yr old was completely asymptomatic my 19yr old only had very mild GI symptoms both would have been completely missed on clinical screening and only picked up on testing. Just emphasises the need to test more.
Deborah o wish you and your family all the best!
Absolutely right. *Test. Test. Test.* We've known it for months but in some countries it's still a shambles with the process being contracted out to companies completely unsuited to doing it.
OMG!
More info please as in agenda ?
Was it a female that was older or male ?
Simon Allen They’re both boys, and if they had they not been tested could have easily spread it unknowingly to their friends.
Test more with inaccurate tests typical nurse thinking, idiot
Hi John,.
When you say that "some people can be Asymptomatic for the entire duration",.. do we have any idea how long that could be,.. and how long they could remain infectious, ?
we either need a complete testing system to detect the virus and antibodies,. or complete protection from infection/transmission.
If there are two groups studying the same thing, and they product reports with conflicting or opposite results,. ...then we don't have a clue.
What we do know is that until 70 - 80% of the population has had the virus and recovered, the virus will continue unabated.
@Bear V, sadly we have suffered from "no real science" in many fields including medicine, diet and climate for at least 70 years, far longer than Twitter, Facebook, and RUclips have been present. Of course the problem can be traced back into the late 1800's by reviewing newspaper archives. It's pretty clear poor quality science has been with us for a long, long time! People remember the few triumphs and seem to forget all the times scientists said (or were reported to have said) something stupid.
You won’t get an answer back from him , I’ve posted so many times ..... nothing
"...not a clue"
Many of my favorite professors were grindstone noser number crunchers, couldn't get them to look up from their religion.
When forced to glimpse greater realities, they grimaced with fear like little birds loosing perch grip.
Maybe they aren't asking the right questions, when they initially collect the data.
You are wonderful Dr. Campbell. You provide honest, unbiased information. You are a wonderful teacher. I have learned so much from you and passed it forward.
The result of your excellent video. We are just in the beginning of the beginning of this pandemic.
The problem is people get laxity. People don’t wear masks, no social distance. To much people in parks etc. Etc. Result: new big wave.
And after that people asking how is it possible. Well simple. They didn’t listen to you.
Have a nice day SIR
Doctor; the Japanese seem to have done quite well in this whole situation, with low rates of spread and deaths.
This could be due to cleanliness or innate distancing - but could it also be due to high vitamin D levels due to high consumption of oily fish/sushi?
Makes sense. Scandinavians also eat a lot of oily fish.
Dr Campbell refuses to talk about Japan any more, I don’t get it
scuzz he mentions japan in this video
@@overtonwindowshopper Japan is also one of least transparent countries out there, probably even less than China or Russia...
@@Alex_Plante Nothing to do with that. Better containment in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
“Officer, there’s between a 5 and 80% chance that I’ve been drinking tonight!”
ChillPill365 funny, me too.
i am from the US and had the covid. Thank you for your work on this subject. If I could nominate you for a Nobel Prize I would. Lisa
Doctor, I've been following your videos during the virus. Thank you for sharing reasonable information using understandable means. Kindest regards, Keith
You are very welcome
@Dr Jhon Campbell Vo Euganeo study is good, but has it has not been peer reviewed (that is to say evaluated by other scientists )to the best of my knowledge.
Note for the tin foils hats people : no conspiracy here because peer review is a very long processby definition.
The bottom line is what is true in Vo Euganeo (50 -75 % asymptomatic ) might not be true elsewhere.
How we find out how many asymptomatic are in UK?
1) We test everybody in UK ( not feasible because it will take months)
2) We take a sample that is representative of the UK population and we test them .
Bottom line :No matter what we have to do testing: if we want clear answers in order to be proactive.
So far the approach can be summarized in few words: random acts of management
enrico l Very good comment! I despise the tin foil hatters.
Good point. My personal useless observation having lived in different communities -
brought up in small rural village during 1950's -1960's - pop ~ 200 - most people had short interactions with each other on daily basis - "Hello & comment on the weather". Shopping for basics - brought by to us by vans. Church attendance low. Pub attandance low.
City - much of it "dormitory" - minimal social interaction - but very high exposure to large numbers of others eg when shopping, town centre, going to, or leaving place of work, pubs, clubs, discos. Much use of overcrowded commuter trains with prolonged exposure - 1 hour to London.
Sparse scattered population in North (Same latitude as Cape Cod Greenland large variation in day light hours) - Shetland island complex. Isolated geographically. Little grouping during summer - work outdoors - small scale fishing & crofting, now tourism, but much crowded group interaction during winter - virtually no pubs, get together most long evenings, mainly in homes, community halls. The main cause of spread of respiratory viral disease was the centralised secondary school. Most teenagers lived at school for 5 days & went home at w/e - lived in very close proximity for 5 days.
Point - in the UK people can interact very differently in terms of opportunity for viral transmission of different viral loads, in different types of population & we do not know the infecting dose. I tentatively wonder whether this could be one of the factors for the results from Vo Euganeo?
I also wonder about the awareness of some researchers of these differences. IMO one has to live as a member of a community for about 2-3 years to begin to be aware of these factors.
The Vo study was mainly a very small sample size of infected. I recall that of the 3000 tested, fewer than 70 tested positive in a PCR test not a serological antibody test. That 50%-75% is a subset of that 70 - not of the 3000.
enrico l Not worthwhile if the tests are unrealizable.
@@wahtafule yes. 340 out of 73 with no follow up, so could also be pre-symptomatic.
Here's the link to the pre-preint: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1
Here's the link to their GitHub with data and algorithms used: github.com/ConniCia/SEIR_Covid_Vo
P.S:
Ok, they "claim" to have followed up, but did only two surveys between 23.02. and 08.03. (14 days), so they could still miss pre-symptomatics.
On the GitHub is a xlsx with the data, if someone want to take a look at it.
P.P.S.:
Some stuff doesn't match the paper.
a) 68 entries have positive for first test in the xlsx, but in the paper they claim 73
b) 37 of these had no symptoms at first survey, but 9 of them were pre-symptomatic (had symptoms at second survey). The paper claims 30 asympotmatic.
Two of the 28 that were classified as "no-symptoms" have listed "rhinitis" as "other symptoms", which is listed in Germany (RKI) as a non-frequent symptom (5%).
So basically it were 26.
So it was ~38,2% a-symptomatic and 13,2% pre-symptomatic. But still, with no follow up later there could be still some pre-symptomatic. Also, some of the patients could have missed the mild symptoms. With that low number of samples and these limits (missed mild symptoms and short time-range/no extra follow up) the confidence interval is probably too small for their assumption of 29.7-53.2% asymptomatic ratio.
Adjusted CI (without taking into account of pre-symptomatic/missed mild cases) for binominal assumption (that they use in the paper):
26.7%...50.8%
Dr Campbell the study on Asymptomatic population was published on Sole 24 Ore, on 16 of April, done in Vo (Veneto- italy , former red zone) 43% of the infected and positive to the tests were asymptomatic- source “study suppression of Covid-19 outbreak in the municipality of Vo, Italy(PrePrint Med XIV). To be peer reviewed.
afnium I think the issue here is that there will never be a hard or useful percentage of asymptomatic infected because it's down to inoculate viral load, and a number of other factors. Trying to look for a valid number that can be extrapolated from I fear is a complete waste of everybody's time...
@@noth606 We can still narrow it down more, perhaps a 30-50% range depending on circumstances. Or maybe differneces base on age range.
I would say the true value is 5-20%. in 10k people including asymptomatics in South Korea they recorded 20%.
I think a lot of studies seem to not follow individuals long enough to figure out if they are presymptomatic or asymptomatic and are kinda blending both together a bit.
I love that dry sense of humour. 50-80%!
In Malaysia we are seeing clusters where 80% and higher are asymptomatic
18% on the diamond princess - apart from all the false negatives...
(Flipping desk.)
@@donethos 100 years from now when medical historians look back at this pandemic they'll shake their heads thinking - these guys had very primitive medical technology.
Just like we think of the Spanish flu.
80 percent asymptomatic on the Diamond Princess
If we rely on testing for symptoms only then we miss ALL those who are asymptomatic. John, you are the only person on youtube who follows the evidence vigorously. Thank you
i must admit i have been growing more worried by this whole situation as time goes on , i am amazed at photos of people crowding on beaches and not worried one bit as one person said on the news “ im fed up with it all and don’t bother anymore to listen to any of the advice im just being normal now “ we all are low and feeling the strain but people with that position are so dangerous to us all . just my thoughts.
I agree!
Totally agree with you, I've got more concerned as the weeks go on and the people who are crowded on beaches being asymptomatic. I just class anyone outside is infected so keep well away and wear a mask. Virus spray in car with hand gel and wipes! You just cant let your guard down xx
@@dawndouglas9315 That's exactly what i do. Just treat everyone as infected
@@MM0SDK I think you have too as this virus is so easy to catch! Stay well and safe xx
@@reneruim8844 I'm not taking any chances! I've a huge garden so am outside for fresh air and exercise, I dont need to take any risks especially with an underlying health problem xx
Seems to me that we'll still be struggling with this in well over a years' time at this rate...
3 years for the 1918 flu. The previous flu pandemic occurred in 1889, before the industrial age kept everyone inside and Vitamin D deficient causing rickets.
Between 5% and 80%? That's such a wide range....
Yes indeed
My gut feeling is that the higher range numbers probably include cases with very minor symptoms and the lower range numbers probably include cases with medically detectable symptoms which a patient might otherwise not notice.
Yes something is just really strange..... Don't you think. Everything about this is just VERY strange.......
@@freeandcriticalthinker4431 perhaps some people have been given immunity from exposure to a similar virus...hence the inconsistency. That idea should be investigated.
Thanks Dr. John. Appreciate your commitment to serve your fellow man. Humanitarian in the highest sense of the word.
We are 5% to 80% certain that we might be unsure
Hello from Washington State Dr. John! I watch your videos regularly and appreciate your perseverance. Wishing you well.
Dr., always thought this is an exemplary usage of the RUclips platform. Anywho, Dr., is there a litmus test for being "asymptomatic"? Or, is there a hazy spectrum from asymptomatic at one end and symptomatic on the other end?
Strictly speaking, asymopromatic is defined as no symptoms whatsoever, so this does not cover feeling "a bit off today", or "not quite right but can't put my finger on it" etc etc,
As any repair guy will tell you elusive intermittent or asymptomatic fault causes are the hardest to find.
@@gordslater I would include those whose symptoms were so minor one wouldn't call a clinic normally for the symptoms and still go out to work or shop.
Easy to have confusion here. This time of year has a lot of Spring Colds and Allergies. Their mild symptoms can be mistaken for the virus. Only definitive answer is the virus test...if the test itself is trustworthy.
God bless you Dr John Campbell. Very much appreciate all you do and your daily reports.
CDC saying that risk of transmission is highest in symptomatic phase maybe because one of the symptom is coughing which increases viral shedding, while in asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people viral shedding though present is only by talking.🙂
Let’s not forget mass kissing Shivam! 😛
BS from CDC. They have lying the whole time and they can't back down so they just keep inventing fairy tales about this.
@@albert0F maybe but the other study he stated showed that the viral load in all 3 symptomatic, asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people is high.
Assumption again, no concrete evidence.
Thanks again John for talking through the studies. I think that the problem with the studies is that most are snapshots and few have daily follow-up of the participants. So we dont know whether participants are asymptomatic for the entire duration or belatedly get symptoms and should therefore be considered presymptomatic. Your quote that people are a formidable source of infection from the Italian study should be always borne in mind.
Dr Campbell could you please debate Dr Vernon Coleman.
I think it would be a really interesting analysis of what's going on.
I wish testing for anosmia had been done before declaring a person asymptomatic. If it's airborne and I breath through my nose, my first infected cells should be in my nose, and I might not notice my anosmia unless I am a young female putting on perfume. As always I find your excellent work refreshing as well as most helpful.
John, what is the Cochrane Library: Cochrane Reviews data and review reports on this or is it too soon for them? Another great video - I wish I found you earlier when I was working with junior doctors and nurses you channel would be a great resource
Other sources of information ruclips.net/video/DHOoqdkj4Zs/видео.html
Yep. Keep digging! You’re on the right track in questioning all this research going on, why some studies are ignored and others extolled. We should have a couple more answers by this point!
Ive got the long tail covid 19 , apparently, just over two months into it 😭 I’m getting better, but I still have the lungs of a chain smoking humming bird 🤒 I hope to hear more about long tail symptoms in the future as my GP really has no information on it at all . 😎👍
Hi Richard, I had that too. Lasted about 2 months as well. The final symptom to go was the mouse running a 50m sprint in my lungs when I breathed.
I had this and so did the wife after contracting the virus (we strongly assume - no test yet) in early February. Six weeks later we were still crackling and coughing - highly embarrassing when you're trying to get supplies in at Tesco. It does eventually go away though.
Seine O'More Takes a long time to "tail off".
@@richardsmith9038 You went out to Tesco when you suspected to have the virus? Genius, that.
@@heminder We're not all geniuses like you, Norseman....and I'd been infected 6 weeks prior to this. GET A LIFE!
I live in a small town, Waverly, Tennessee. I still don't know if anyone here has had it. Folks were good at only going out as needed & half wears mask's. I stay home cept taking my son to work an back. I only get on here to listen. Wish they had a map that showed how many cases are in each city but I can't find one... Thanks doc🐰
Blessed health to all from America💗💗💗💗
Donna Gaynelle Palk Turner, Go to your state's Public Health Department Website and you may see the cases listed by counties. But realise these are only for people who tested positive for COVID-19 and deaths of COVID-19.
Remember that someone could be an asymptomatic carrier of COVID-19, have no symptoms, be infected and pass it on to you. Because they have no symptoms, they may not realise that they are infected and contagious. So please take precautions. Wear a good fitting mask in public places, especially grocery stores. Wash your hands, and or wear gloves and consider surfaces contaminated. Stay well Dear One. I am sending love and hugs from Washington State, USA, Jeanne of In Loving Hands Counseling and ASMR.
@@jeannestandley-kinata824 I go to Micrsoft's coronavirus news. They have a map of each county, listing active cases, recovered cases and deaths. Also, Johns Hopkins website has similiar numbers by county.
I have a friend in a smallish town in Canada. His GP told him definitively that nobody in town has it - apparently he has a crystal ball. All it takes is one person to bring it back and spread it. Where I am they don't give us any idea of exactly which community has it either so we just have to assume we all do!
I live in a small town in North Carolina. We also have no confirmed cases. Several nursing homes in neighboring towns have cases. We also have a chicken plant 10 miles away that had a big outbreak last month, but still none here. Maybe we're all asymptomatic carriers? If my family has to get it, I hope we are asymptomatic and never even know it.
The difficulty is the order in which tests were developed in the working world. We began by telling people not to come in unless they had symptoms. If we had begun by testing everyone, we'd know the proportion of those who did, and who didn't , later develop symptoms. But that didn't happen, except in rare cases like the Diamond Princess. Now we have reached the stage of having antibody tests, we're discovering people who test positive for antibodies but who say they can't think of when they felt any symptoms. That means some asymptomatic infections, but we just don't have that early data for comparative study. Just not there.
Hence the mantra of Test, Test, Test. Which sadly took far too long to take hold in many countries.
@@GOLEMUK In Canada they are still ONLY testing hospitalized cases...if you are sick at home you are just told to isolate of your own volition with no test. Of course they cant be forced to do so without knowledge if they have it or not, or if they recently travelled...so people just carry on as normal. It's absolutely bonkers the lack of urgency the health authorities have for this, and things are starting to reopen rapidly. Canada will continue to suffer for a while due to straight up stupidity.
The diamond princess was 5G radiation poisoning I heard
@@thepanda9782 Yes, the government response in Canada has been horrible. Why could they not follow the example of many countries that are doing it right. The lack of testing is unacceptable and negligent. Now that cases have leveled off, and not decreased dramatically, they want to reopen many businesses! Poor, poor choices and direction overall. This could have all been handled so much better ad with much less loss of life and with less detrimental effects to the economy.
Yeah they forgot. For example, their upset stomach, but of diarrhea one night, or the weird smell experiences were not significant ehlnough to remember.
all these studies seem perfectly consistent, the older the population in the study the greater proportion of assymptomatic cases. 8% in a nursing home 30% in travelers (presumably adults) up to 75% population based (which includes a lot of children i’m sure). I think the EBM crew doesn’t like it because of the variance but when all put together like this it makes perfect sense... Thanks Dr C!
Hello from Pennsylvania! Great viddys! I watch everyday.
Awesome! Thank you!
Hello from Buckinghamshire!
How would I be able to send a picture?
@@Campbellteaching I believe that would be Voy-oh-GAH-nyoh, John. Reference; my father was a polyglot, Italian being one of the languages he had fun using if he wanted to confuse my mother!
@@psilocybinsteve2940 Go to Dr. John Campbell's channel page. Do that by clicking on his name. He has his e-mail address listed there.
A great honest man.
Here it is June, almost, and 3 months of huge number of cases in the world. What a mess we have in all authorities that we do not have this critically important number, or range of likelyhoods. For it is very important for public health management and "re-opening" to know and act upon.
Hello, Dr John..Good morning from Netherlands!,
Thanks once again !
Dr John You continue to bring perspective and clarity. Thanks
Dr. Campbell I was diagnosed with Covid 4/16 after being sick for nearly a week and a half. My doctor kept telling me I had bronchitis, till I got tested.
I'm in my fifties, overweight, I have diabetes, high blood pressure and asthma.
I'm STILL sick - I've had multiple rounds of antibiotics, I've had multiple scripts for steroids, but I'm still wheezing, still waking up at night with coughing fits, still get winded going up stairs.
I've had a chest x ray last week - nothing. I haven't had an asthma episode for YEARS till Covid. I read about people who suffer with LONG Covid recoveries, some for months, but wanted to know if you've heard of this.
That sounds awful. I hope the antibiotics etc help. Here's wishing you a full recovery asap
Hello from UK. My work colleague.. .. Fit 45yr old and her 11yr old daughter became ill 17th March. Flu like symptoms slight fever. They went on to have tight chest breathing problems...fatigue..sore throat...loss of smell and taste. They were told to self isolate...they did for 14 days. Went to doctors afterwards ... No covid test available ... Bloods showed nothing ... Stayed home again.
As of today they are still not fit ... both have days when they feel wiped out again and these symptoms have been with them and forming since 17th March. They were tested 6 weeks in but were told it was too long after symptoms started so would be a negative result ... Which it was ...negative.
They have had antibiotics in this time but they didn't help....there are people like this who have it for months... She says she now feels like an asthmatic....
yes reports like this are out there. Antibiotics can only help if it is a bacterial infect or one not getting one if lucky. Has no effect on a Virus.
Wishing you good health, L.. Have you seen the doc's vids on Vitamine D? I've gathered that taking Vit D helps even after you've contracted the virus.
Kate i must check this out as well. I was sick for 2 months. My own fault as when i was better i went for a walk and it was a cold day. The air hit my lungs and it really hurt and i may have gotten a secondary lung infection. Today i have good lung function except pollen which could be a bit troubling before covid 19 now can actually make my lungs hurt again. Also air pollution can do this as well. . Have no doctor and i am sure they wouldnt know anyway.. i just keep doing my breathing exercises and hope this will disappear eventually. My energy is back and everything else is normal. I am a healthy 67 year old Canadian other than allergies. Strange virus...... 🙏
Such a lovable persona, paradigm for the humanitarian scientist. Cheers from Turkey Mr. Campbell. Supposing things are getting better, after all.
Dr John. You've warned that a second wave could be devastating, particularly if it hits at the same time as a seasonal flu epidemic. Germany was in the middle of one of the worst flu epidemics for years when Coronavirus arrived; but instead of having one of the highest death rates in Europe (which one might expect) they have suffered one of the lowest. Is it possible that recent exposure to seasonal flu could have provided a degree of protection?
Richard Smith I’d imagine a lot of the vulnerable would have already died
That's what I think
What scares me.is BILL GATES TYPE PPL. WANT TO FORCE SOME SORT OF CHIP THAT CAN BE TRACKED BY THE GOVERNMENT ?? YOU DONT KNOW SHIT!# ARE YOU CRAZY!!!
I was wondering the same exact thing. I thought that perhaps the immune system was already ramped up from seasonal flu for those recovered and then exposed to covid19. Would love to know what the doctor thinks about that.
Susan Long There is zero evidence for what you claim. Ridiculous to be scared of a conspiracy theory based on no evidence what so ever. Stop it.
Seasonal flu was also bad last year, but likely it was bad because CV19 was causing the deaths. CV19 is likely killing the same people the seasonal flu would kill. If your vulnerable to the seasonal flu, you are vulnerable to CV19, if you are not vulnerable to the flu, you are safe from CV19 with the rare exception.
I highly doubt there is going to be a second wave, as this has been spreading faster and sooner then past pandemics. We are using models from past pandemics that do not work for this one. There is already a large portion of the population that had CV19 but don't know it.
This is EXACTLY why I listen to John Campbell. His research and due consideration is clear and concise and is of consideration for me in planning out 2-6 months. and taking the appropriate steps to protect me and my loved ones. This man is an INTERNATIONAL TREASURE for English speakers.
Everything he says is available to you to research yourself, but you are to lazy to do it. So he does it, dont make him special in any way, shape or form. Reading the research of others and putting it in a video is not groundbreaking research.
I've given up relying on WHO data.
thats why i only rely on anecdotal eidence
I never relied on it from the moment they said that there was no person to person transmission
Thank you for your research, Dr Campbell. I also feel your frustration at all this vague and sometimes contradictory data. Do keep us informed as always, though!
My BIGGEST question.
Does Asymptomatic mean INFECTIOUS?
I'll save you some reply scrolling. Apparently YES.
Asymptomatic people are still contagious.
It does. Probably less infectious, but still.
@@Sraye Please identify the people you are talking to.
Asymptomatic carriers are people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 and would test positive for COVID-19 If tested, yet are not exhibiting symptoms at the time. They are actively shedding virus particles out of their noses and mouths when they exhale, cough and breathe. Shedding large quanties of viral RNA out of their noses and mouths and in urine and feces. They are highly contagious and infectious. They spread the virus on to others and DO NOT EVEN REALISE THEY ARE SICK because they have no symptoms of COVID-19. No fever, no sore throat, no headache, no cough, perhaps a loss of smell or loss of taste but these symptoms are often not noticed by the person. THIS IS WHY ASYMPTOMATIC CARRIERS ARE SO DANGEROUS. They are spreading COVID-19 in the community. This is why just taking a person's temperature to determine if they have COVID-19 does not work. Asymptomatic carriers do not have fevers. You cannot just look at a person and determine whether or not they have COVID-19. I hope this helps. I am sending love and hugs from Washington State, USA, Jeanne of In Loving Hands Counseling and ASMR.
It varies greatly from person to person how infectious they are and how ill they get and it don't seem to be much of a correlation between how ill someone get and how infectious they get.
So sometimes yea, sometimes not so much....
Hang in there Dr. Campbell! You are still the best for excellent information.
So the long & short continues: wear your mask, distance yourself & wash/cleanse everything.
Hi John, great points today. Stay well my friend.
Good Evening Dr John we would never miss your videos! I will be here until the end.
Bliss Stick sounds a bit ominous....
I appreciate that
Same... Found you in February and watch every day...thank you .. From Cleethorpes UK x
Skip Dr Johns video ? No way. I’ll be here to the end. I need more knowledge today. 💖🇺🇸
Dr C - do we have any idea what the sero-conversion time is? If someone has had a mild infection say three weeks ago, at what point would they stop testing positive for antigen and start to have detectable levels of antibody? Thanks - you're doing an awesome job x
Your body generally start producing antibodies within a few days of infection, and then within a week or so your body might also have ramped up the production of it to full capacity. But the test for the virus is a completely different animal and only picks up free-floating RNA, that stuff won't last long in the bloodstream even if you aren't producing antibodies, so it comes from swabs in your nose. Free-floating RNA is harmless outside of a cell, it's from some virus that failed to assemble correctly or that has been pulled into pieces already by various processes. Your antibodies and immune system in general will therefore ignore those things.
Meanwhile clumps of antibodies and intact viral particles in the same area are exactly the sort of thing your immune system will diligently clean away. So the end result is that in your bloodstream antibodies will start to show up way before you have recovered from the illness and stopped being infectious, while that RNA in your nose might hang around for quite a while after you have recovered and stopped being infectious.
@@stoferb876 Thank you for that explanation! Immunology wasn't my discipline.
Dr. John - I never want to "skip" your videos ! Always stimulating to the mind. However, I was a bit surprised that you didn't mention the antibody survey in New York - perhaps the parameters didn't fit exactly into your topic here? Anyway, New York randomly surveyed 3000 people as described in "1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest" [Goodman and Rothfield, The New York Times, Apr 23, 2020]. The article also mentions that two other antibody studies in California found a much lower exposure rate of only 4-5% in that state. So, as you say, 'I can fairly definitively tell you .. (the rate) is between 5 and 80%'. Exactly so !!
My 97 yo aunt, who has hypertension and diabetes, lives in a nursing home and tested positive and has no symptoms. Almost all of the residents of her home have tested positive, some with symptoms some without. Of 80 residents, 3 have died with covid -19.
This symptomatic testing only has frustrated me all along. People think they are ok, and not shedding virus.
8 out of 23 infected in a nursing home in my area died. Two were in their 70's.
@Ajgleskorv Yeah, 33 London busdrivers for instance.
Ajgleskorv so true I can't believe the hypochondriac idiots lapping this up total bs
harry nac sure in bus accidents heart attacks all covid 19
@Ajgleskorv which would
D be all of us...
This was helpful. Please share your opinion of asymptotic spread, some studies are saying it’s less common than first believed, and if original estimates were true we would have a lot more infections than we actually do.
Can't believe its gone soo fast 5 months 🙄 don't know were the time is gone
hindsight 2020
Yeah, time goes fast when you are enjoying yourselves.
@@tikaanipippin Not at all
I think it's because we've been watching the news, and the Dr.'s channel, over and over again... I've been watching the news much more intensively now than I did before the Covid-19 pandemic.
@ 5:24 "This is the village whose name I'm not going to pronounce...' Great deadpan! Love you Dr. Campbell!
Hello Dr John , I was wondering if you could address a question, i think its one that would interest you too . I have Adrenal Insufficiency so i dont make any cortisol , therefore i have to take Hydrocortisone 5 times a day to stay alive. Now i know my immune system would be compromised BUT if i got sick badly with Cronavirus would the fact that my cortisol is from a bottle which i control (double and triple dosing re sick day rules) could this actually help me fight the virus as i've heard Corticosteroids mentioned frequently in months past re Coronavirus .
Thank You :)
I always watch your videos and have done since January .
Also Dr John, i was also keen to find out if virus effected people actually had a reduced adrenal response , but my guess is NOBODY checks cortisol levels in seriously ill covid-19 patients .
@@Island_Times These are really fantastic questions!
@@caninetherapyinc9031 Thank you :)
My whole family has Adrenal insufficiency. Husband, , self and 2 children all have CAH .
Scared to death for my family to catch this and how we would fair being we are immunocompromised . We each take various doses of Hydrocortisone,Prednisone and Dexamethasone.
@@michelegraves557 , i'm SAI due to pituitary damage from a Rathkes Cleft Cyst and mostly take Cortate Acetate (is like a faster acting Pred), Yes we are immune compromised due to the steroids . I want to know if we have a fighting chance and if adrenal function becomes reduced in otherwise normal people that are seriously ill with Covid-19 as they look at the lungs etc as the key element but was wondering if cortisol played a part too as its hard enough for us with Adrenal Insufficiency to get treatment for an Adrenal Crisis in a hospital even without us being sick with Covid-19 , so was kinda wondering if seriously ill people with Covid-19 had low cortisol as it would give us a fighting chance and might save a few other people !
Wow that your whole family has CAH !
We nerd antibody testing in the USA!! I'm ready to get the test and we need the data to help us.
Could some older people be asymptomatic? I’m 68 and before the lockdown, before we knew the no sense of smell and no sense of taste was a symptom I was with my daughter and she had these symptoms with a slight fever and headache. Her daughter (6) had symptoms of a mild cold the week before. Her teenage/adult sons had colds and her husband had extreme fatigue and pains in his chest. He even had an ecg. (He’s fine). Yet despite being with them for lots of time I didn’t get the ‘cold’. I have been taking vit d3 for more than a year. It was 1000iu but upped it to 2000iu on your suggestion Dr. I also take pre and pro biotics.
Very interesting hope he sees this
A woman I follow on another forum is in Birmingham. Her husband was in hospital with Covid-19 at the peak but neither she nor her son contracted it. Compare that to how a common cold or a tummy bug whizzes through an entire family group and its hard to make sense of it all.
You are my first daily source of information. Thanks for the references.
Hey when are they going to control this? We need to live our lives!!!
as soon as people are responsible and follow the rules this will be over in 2-4 weeks
so somewhere late 2021 after the vaccine has been developed
Yup this is really the main topic to be researched and discussed right now!
Could we be dealing with two simultaneous strains, with greatly differing rates of symptomaticity?
the only way to check that is to isolate viral particles and sequence them
Thank you sincerely Dr. John Campbell 🇨🇦
Prepare, don't panic. Eat a whole food plant based diet, get enough sleep, exercise and reduce stress. Take care of yourself and each other. We can't rely on corporations and governments.
Imgay Asheck says the account using RUclips to give that advice. But yeah, broadly agree. Never been more healthy since I turned vegan two years ago, definitely agree on sleep and stress too.
Anecdotes prove nothing. I went carnivore in January to spite vegans due to "veganuary". And I have never felt better.
@@davidmowbray4230 what are you talking about? There is lots of evidence, on the other hand carnivores literally only have anecdotes. You seem to be living in opposite land. Stop being anti-science.
I have never been more healthy since corona virus happened! I am taking 16 grams of vitamin C a day, 20,000 ius or whatever they are called of vitamin D3 plus a whole array of other vitamins and supplements. But I do need to work on more sleep!
I love the up front bottom line. Thankyou - refreshing! But i love your calming, charming Britishness, and great info.
There may be people with immunity from having been exposed in the past to something similar. That was the case for Spanish flue. So there may not be a standard % of asymptomatic, may depend on previous exposures, will be different in each location.
During the Spanish Flue, some were given immunity from a low level virus pandemic 25 years eariler. But they were still contagious! Many only got marginally ill from Spanish Flue, hardly any symptoms...sounds familiar.
My grandma remained asymptomatic the whole time and she has MS
Do you happen to know your grandma's blood type?
My wife died from MS last year .She was on a ventilator . Awful way to go, much like covid .
I was a grandma at 35! However, good to know your granny got through.
@@jamesbarber2882 so sorry for your loss. At least she is not suffering anymore. May peace be with you.
@@rubyjools I never was a mom and I am 70
Dr Cambell, you are saving lives!
I like the part where John doesn't say "please subscribe to my channel and smash that like button"
Thanks for keeping us informed. Id like more education on two important things: a) how does the initial viral dose relate to disease severity? If there is a lose-dose-low-severity correlation then that is an additional reason to wear a mask, clean surfaces, wash hands, open windows, etc: even if you do contract the disease, you may get it milder. And b) there are suggestions that even people who were already infected could worsen their situation by hanging out and sneezing or coughing in each other's presence. (So cohort nursing is probably not a good idea). Dr Alex Rai from NHS circulated a letter from a colleague suggesting this. Any insights or information would be interesting...
Have they even got a reliable test? Which test would that be please?
@McDonalds Farmer He won’t respond. He’s working for Big Pharma. At no point will he question the legitimacy of anything to do with this pandemic
There is no need for a reliable test covid-19 is not highly infectious nor has it got a high mortality rate..
RUclips Lord Sumption BBC interview on lockdown. An actual voice of reason at last....and inadvertently show it's all been rubbish. The pantomime continues as a face saving exercise...and a roll out of what can only be described as Orwellian rules and laws...and John Campbell is either a willing idiot or a megalomaniac who is STILL calling for these rule to be deployed.
-Jonathan Philip Chadwick Sumption, Lord Sumption, OBE, PC, FSA, FRHistS (born 9 December 1948), is a British author, medieval historian and former senior judge.Sworn in as a Justice of the Supreme Court on 11 January 2012, succeeding The Lord Collins of Mapesbury,
-Dr Vernon Coleman MB ChB DSc FRSA...
-UK gov's website 19th march placed covid-19 as a non a high consequence infectious disease (HCID).
-Office of national statistics.
Thank you as always for your informative videos. Much appreciated 👍
Question: Is there asymptomatic seasonal flu? Do you know the statistics?
You see a huge range of data from 15-16 percent up to three quarters. Of course influenza isn't just one virus and it mutates regularly so that figure is naturally pretty variable. But I think it's worth noting that the novel virus has an infectious period of up to twice influenza's. A longer infectious period + asymptomatic spread is a major boon for an infectious disease. And of course while we still don't have exact morality figures on Covid-19, it is quite apparent now that Covi is significantly deadlier.
@@Susie2607 agreed even if its IFR is just 1% to 2% double that with kife changing effects of cronic lung and kidney damage it's transmissibility means many will die. If there are less asymptomatic then it is far more deadly, and many will die
77% are asymptomatic
www.medscape.com/viewarticle/822047
Never ever trust the CDC with their fictitious info.
You're the only person I trust now,I don't even listen to our government stuff,it's a waste of time.
@McDonalds Farmer no.
Is no one going to talk about the CDC's new estimated mortality rate?
Great question! I love that more and more people are more and more puzzled about all this! Question, question, question
Am not gunna lie the more I hear about the virus the less concerned I actually am. The media have stirred up a frenzy. I know 6 people who have had it who have fully recovered.
@@themagicbeard9432 If the mortality rate is 1% then it's likely that 6 out of 6 people will recover. However if let's say 100 people get it then it's likely that atleast 1 person will die. If 1 billion people get it then 10 million will die, and that's assuming hospitals don't get overwhelmed.
I think that Dr. Campbell discusses other countries' agencies in context. His videos compare the situation in different countries, and data from different countries. The American situation, and its CDC has been mentioned several times, and is also mentioned within this vid.
Its 1-3%. Note in NZ (we have had no new cases in whole country for about a week now) , Taiwan, Australia, Isreal .Death rate is approx 1.4% All this nonsense about 0.2% is for people under age 35.
Information from US CDC has been politicized to reopen economy. Thank you for giving info from around the world in your.straight forward way.
The Heinsberg-study from Germany also covered that question and they found about 20% were asymptomatic
That's what they also found in South Korea.
@@TB1M1 Were those random sample studies? I don't recall the details.
It would be nice to have a study that also differentiates between people that are asymptomatic who remain asymptomatic, and those people asymptomatic only at the onset of the infection, but who develop symptoms later. I'd also like to know whether the testing is showing false positives. Accurate antibody testing in the future might answer some of these questions. Right now the emphasis is on antigen testing.
A taste test everyday is so easy to do. I use dark choccolate. I also do smell test with the Lovely lilas. With this strategy I know I am healthy and not asymptomatic. It would be beyond horrific if I was asymptomatic and gave the virus to my loved ones. That risk I refuse to take therefor taste and smell test for me everyday. So far during all months I have passed the test.
Fantastic commonsense advice. And anyone who washes their hands with anything that has a noticeable fragrance or smell, like a scented handwash or even a 60% Alcohol solution, should also be aware and mindful of the smell when they do that.
Dark Chocolate also has many proven benefits for health, in moderation of course.
It contains a decent amount of soluble fiber and is loaded with minerals.
Dark chocolate (ideally with with 70-85% cocoa) contains, fiber, iron, magnesium, copper, manganese. It also has plenty of potassium, phosphorus, zinc and selenium
Of course, 100 grams (3.5 ounces) is a fairly large amount and not something you should be consuming every day in that quantity. All these nutrients also come with calories and moderate amounts of sugar.
So again, in moderation, a delicious and very wise choice.
You have a lot of knowledge.great. take Care.
My coffee still tastes good and lime essential oil still makes my mouth water
Dark choccolate 86 percent.twenty gram a day. Superantioxidant. Very good and very tasteful.
If you were asymptomatic, you would not have the symptom of lack of taste or smell.
The difference in those studies is the group of people tested. In Vò Euganeo, and only there, they tested almost the whole population of the town, not just a selected group. That is why this is the best study available.
Hello from Houston,Texas ..again 😉😷☀️D3,K2, C, Zinc
AGAIN THANX Dr Campbell for this very important topic. I guess this number of 40 % asymptomatic is extremely alarming to fight this covid 19 pandemic. I hope the WHO Will be very serious about this problem......If we don,t take this in account, we Will never be able to fight this pandemic effectively....Simply because this number is far to high to ignore. Gr Hans
Religious places are opening up around the world. ⛪️🕌🕍
With asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people situation can get worse.
Can't understand why people don't stay at home and pray, or is it that they want to be close to their God… quite literally.😶
@McDonalds Farmer Didn't mention today, did earlier.
There is news of lockdown easing around world and religious places are amongst first to open.
Between 5% to 80% so glad they figured it out