The Substance isn’t just any horror movie , it’s a horror movie about aging which will resonate with Hollywood in a way no other horror movie has before.
@@skylark1250unfortunately for you the industry loves the substance. A lot of noms at globe, over performed in Bafta long list, and will at least get lead actress and best makeup at Oscars. So yes, Demi is a shoo-in for nom and could actually win it. She is way overdue and delivers a magnificent performance
It’s honestly funny how Ingrid Bergman won her third Oscar for mainly a short scene in a 1974 ensemble thriller, and 50 years later, her daughter might be nominated for mainly a short scene in a 2024 ensemble thriller
I really want Fernanda Torres or Demi Moore to win best actress. I watched all the movie and can say they were the stand out for me. So you can imagine how HAPPY I was when the golden globe gave the win for them.
As a brazilian, it was a shook seeing Fernanda Torres winning, it was like world coup in our country. And if you see anything oscar-related or award season-related, you will notice the huge ratio between Fernanda and the other nominees, the amount of likes, positive comments and excitement towards her is huuuge. If this film loses the award for best international film there will be rage, because Emilia Perez is awful, is not like Central Station losing to The Life Is Beautiful which was deserving too.
My list of the nominees (If i could vote) Best actress Demi Moore (The Substance) Mikey Madison (Anora) Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) Angelina Jolie (Maria) Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) Best actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice or A Different Man) Best supporting actress Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) Ariana Grande (Wicked) Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) Margaret Qualley (The Substance) Best supporting actor Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) Yurs Borisov (Anora)
I love that you have Pamela Anderson in there. Haven't seen The Last Showgirl yet so not sure that it's deserved over the others, but she's a sentimental favourite. Just watched the documentary made by her son, Pamela, A Love Story and it was amazing. Incredibly personal and engaging.
@flowerfaeri Since you just watched the documentary, I highly recommend you check out "The Last Showgirl." At the end of the documentary, if it had you rooting for Pamela, you'll be touched and heartbroken by her performance in the new film. It'll have you rooting for her even more. Definitely check it out!
Best Leading Actor: 1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 3. Daniel Craig (Queer) 4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 5. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) Best Leading Actress: 1. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) 2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) 3. Mikey Madison (Anora) 4. Demi Moore (The Substance) 5. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) Best Supporting Actor: 1. Yura Borisov (Anora) 2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 4. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) Best Supporting Actress: 1. Ariana Grande (Wicked) 2. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) 3. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) 4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 5. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Zoe Saldana as supporting actress is an extreme case of category fraud. She's got top billing, more screen time than Gascon, and the story is mostly told from her character's POV. I'm sick and tired of the supporting categories emphasizing screen time over the quality of the acting.
I think the key strength Cynthia Erivo has over Margot Robbie is that Cynthia has Defying Gravity. Margot has amazing comedic and dramatic moments throughout Barbie, but I think how much Cynthia nailed Defying Gravity will make it pretty hard for people to pass her up on their nominations list.
My favorite lead actress: 1. Marianne Jean-Baptiste 2. Fernanda Torres 3. Mikey Madison 4. Karla Sofia Gascon 5. Tilda Swinton 6. Pamela Anderson 7. Kate Winslet 8. Demi Moore 9. Nicole Kidman 10. Angelina Jolie 11. Amy Adams Who I think will get in: Demi, Mikey, Karla, Marianne, Fernanda I think one factor people are forgetting with such a packed category…Cynthia can be eligible for next year with the second part of “Wicked.”
I agree about Cynthia but I think people have a hard time putting Grande in and not Erivo. Those performances go hand and hand. Plus she’s a previous* nominee.
@ what does “precious” nominee mean? I haven’t heard that phrase before. I have problems with Cynthia and Ariana not both being in the lead category. So while I understand them going “hand in hand” as you said, Grande being in supporting is category fraud. Ariana doesn’t have as much competition as Cynthia does, which is another reason (BIG reason) why I think Ariana will definitely get in, but Cynthia will just “probably” get in.
I'm going to (respectfully) brag here. Nick says that a month ago people were not predicting Demi Moore and not placing her in their top five. I was predicting Demi back in October, and I made a video a month ago about how not only could she win the Oscar, but even if you didn't believe that, how it was very possible that her nomination was secure! Definitely one of my prouder moments this year. 😊
The fact that Demi is now locked in makes me so happy! I was just hoping for a nomination 😅 but to be the front runner to win! I'm so hyped a film like The Substance and her acting in get can get attention ❤️
I’m gonna call it right now, next year is finally gonna be Colman Domingo’s Oscar year. I have him winning supporting actor for portraying Joe Jackson in Michael.
Just a few things to seriously consider Curtis: -she is an actors actor or had became that in recent years, won an Oscar, won an Emmy and is everywhere at every ceremony and everyone is cheering for her -her role is transformative, loud, scene stealing part, CLASSIC SUPPORTING ROLE -she actually had got the best reviews from that film, people come for Anderson, but they are surprised by Curtis, its said that She HAS THE BEST/MOST MEMORABLE SCENE IN THE FILM -She got at Bafta Longlist, and got in at SAG for a small little movie, which means a huge part of 150.000 voted for her -The Last Showgirl inspires curiosity cause of its narrative, the screener was watched (as we saw at SAG) -she is the only hugely respected, famous veteran beside Rossellini, although Rossellini has the never been nominated narrative -The Last Showgirl campaign was handled by Curtis who is master at campaign and Coppolas (just something to consider) -If Anderson doesnt get in, Curtis can cause two different categories, one more and one less competitive (Holly Hunter Thirteen, Wood snubbed, Hunt in Session, Hawkes snubbed, etc, LInney in Kinsey, Neeson snubbed) -She had donated 1 million to LA Fire Relief -Its a two acting contender film (Nyad, Albert Nobbs, The Sessions, only J. Edgar lost all acting noms being the multiple acting contender that had got at SAG in last 20 years)
The hurdle for the Substance is if it would be taken seriously by the industry and the critics. Now we see it has since Demi, Qualley and the movie itself are getting nominated in various places, AND Demi won, so that is a guarantee she can get a nom and possibly win. Brian never usually anti-dicts in his videos.
How is that shocking?? He was right to assume it wouldn’t get in cause it’s a horror which the academy notoriously hates. If Demi wasn’t as popular as she was and has this narrative around her, the Substance wouldn’t be going far.
@@joelanthonylim6792 He has been on the Anora train since September. He always praises Baker's films, like other young RUclipsrs, and wants a Baker film to win an Oscar. Demi has been coming on strong since Cannes, but the constant 'so called horror bias' narrative is used to keep her out of the race until The Globes, as he knows that if Demi gets nominated, Madison, being a relatively young actress, has no narrative to win. Maybe she will win I don't know. But Anora doesn’t have anything substantial like Room or Silver Linings Playbook to take our young Madison to the victory.
@@claireindigo1200 So how did it make money? And if it's only for Demi's narrative, why is The Substance receiving so many guild nominations in different categories? You’re not really following the awards season, are you?
I thought Erivo would build momentum over the season but it does seem to be waning. However, I think she will get nominated and she will only be the SECOND Black woman after Viola Davis to be nominated in Best Actress more than once.
@ indeed. I don’t disagree! Wishful thinking. Not a big fan of the way that Gascon has responded to Mexican critics of the film. Also, not going to count Pamela out completely.
Maybe now that hating this movie is becoming the new trend, that racist narrative is catching on and people are multiplying that same exact take on this movie… Maybe it will lose momentum.
That movie is terrible! Not only for the racist matter but also for how fake it is, I mean I hv a lot of mexicans friends here in Europe and they keep proving how everything is wrong in EP. Critics all over the world are loving it because they’re not mexicans… Anyway; FERNANDA & DEMI are the best I saw from lists till now.
I agree that it's overrated, but racist is a strong word. While perhaps well-meaning, the criticisms of it are valid. It's a film that attempts to tackle serious issues concerning Mexico, with no Mexicans in leading roles and little sensitivity to actual Mexicans or input from any in the industry. It's just not that good and as for the songs, I'd listen to Miley Cyrus' Beautiful That Way (The Last Showgirl) or Maren Morris' Kiss the Sky (The Last Robot) over anything in Emily Perez any day.
I hate the viewpoint of waiting for a part two or because someone is so young and new on the scene, for the very reason you stated. You never know what will happen the next year. Award people when they’ve earned it.
really fun conversation! thank you both! loved your working through each list so thoroughly. my choices (no predictions, alas...i'm really not good at being an oracle) are: Best Actress - Demi Moore...also truly loved Mikey Madison, but THIS role done by Moore, in the way she did it, was unflinching and unforgettable! Brava! Best Actor - Adrian Brody...everyone else did superb work, but the scope of his performance and the reach of this film astounds. Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana. I loved this weird, one-of-a-kind, messy film so much, and she took herself to the limit & it was tremendous. Best Supporting Actor - Kieran Culkin. There is no competition. He just did it his way, and it rocked.
It amazes me how determined Oscar predictors are to never predict Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, and then it's a !surprise" when he gets a Golden Globe and SAG nomination (beating the alphabet bias) and is on BAFTA longlist and very likely to get nominated for a BAFTA.
It would be sad if it happened. But it has been the trend the last 3 years in a row with best actress. Gaga, Davis and Robbie all got the 4 precursors, but missed the Oscar nom.
Im also rooting for Demi. However, (whether we like it or not) i think the fifth spot will be given Pamela Anderson. Take note of her GG and SAG nominations.
19:27 I don't think Kate Winslet is that far below the other candidates, in fact it surprises me a little how underestimated she has been. Ok, maybe in a bigger context we have this feeling of "Oh no, another WWII drama" may have more influence on our assessment than the performance itself. But seriously? Mikey Madison? Karla Sofía Gascón? Cynthia Erivo? Angelina Jolie? I haven't seen anything THAT amazing in any of them, but I can understand. Things have changed, generations have changed, and in a world where "Brat" is considered a pop masterpiece, it doesn't surprise me that cinema is also going through social media phase (or redefine), where the public's commotion, and the likeability of the character/actor has increasingly impacted critics and awards, more than ever. A clear example of this is when Cate Blanchett lost her Oscar for Tár, where she simply delivers not only the performance of her career, but so far, of the decade. Nothing against Michelle Yeoh, but we know she won because of the film's popularity/likeability. Even Jamie Lee Curtis won her Oscar surfing this wave. This is why Demi Moore will (probably) win her first (and well-deserved) Oscar, supported more by his campaign/speech than by his performance. Even knowing that Fernanda Torres delivers a better performance. This might be a little worrying perhaps, but still understandable, and VERY debatable.
I found Winslet's performance laughably bad. I literally sniggered at her "old lady" acting, half-believing it was meant to be comedic. Dreadful film, regardless.
hey Brian, can you please bring on a female critic next time??? I just feel like that commentary on the lead & supporting actress races could be more layered & enjoyable for everybody’s pleasure
I wonder how Emilia Perez will do at BAFTA. It reminds me of Killers of the Flower Moon, a story that didn't resonate with British audiences. It was too American.
Did the SAG voting period end before the Golden Globes ceremony? I think the Globes winners and speeches are going to affect nominations going forward. With that in mind; these are my predictions as of now before we get the final piece of the puzzle, the BAFTA nominations on the 15th: Actress 1. Demi Moore 2. Mikey Madison 3. Karla Sofia Gascon 4. Marianne Jean-Baptiste 5. Fernanda Torres Actor 1. Adrien Brody 2. Timothee Chalamet 3. Colman Domingo 4. Ralph Fiennes 5. Sebastian Stan Supporting Actress 1. Zoe Saldana 2. Ariana Grande 3. Isabella Rossellini 4. Felicity Jones 5. Monica Barbaro Supporting Actor 1. Kieran Culkin 2. Guy Pearce 3. Edward Norton 4. Yura Borisov 5. Jeremy Strong
Dont be surprise if Pamela Anderson will receive the oscar… shes superb excellent in the Last Showgirl… Runner-up is Demi Moore and followed by Fernanda Torres… For actor, Ralph Fiennes will accept the oscar, which runner-up is Adrien Brody and followed by Daniel Craig and Timothee Challamet…
The problem is The Last Showgirl isn't as liked a film as The Substance, which is also competitive in several other categories, including director (although I have a bad feeling about that). It'll take a miracle for Anderson to get nominated IMHO. Winning is out of the question.
I would imagine that Kieran Culkin got lead instead of supporting I will be shocked some may think that Guy Pearce could win or it’s up to the voters to choose
Kierian kulkin sooo bad he make tourist film airport and hotel and room and eat in boland i dont know why he make funny film about hoolcoust and he never make any acting same if he make youtubechanell
Zoe Saldaña has an amazing career, seems to be beloved by her peers and audiences alike, and is a very talented, versatile actress, however, Ariana really shines in Wicked and her performance is so much more enjoyable than Saldaña’s, I think Wicked will “age” so much better than Emilia Perez. Having said this, I think academy voters will give it to Saldaña because of her career, even though Grande really embodied her character and is so delightful in her performance.
Chu is not getting a nomination, and neither is Eisenberg for acting. Even if A Real Pain were to get nominated for BP (which you're not even predicting, so I don't know where the Eisenberg prediction comes from). Maclin might, but it's increasingly unlikely unless there is some late resurgence of Sing Sing.
I think Cynthia Ervo will miss out the nomination because Margot Robbie missed out for Barbie, as well as Amy Adams for Arrival. And plus, Oscars favour international performances. Wicked is relatively similar to Barbie last year, so it's risky.
I'm literally sitting in front of the BAFTA Longlist wondering when you two were gonna mention Saoirse Ronan! I'm still holding out for a BAFTA nomination but regardless, it's been a bummer of a season considering I thought she was gonna get the hallowed Leading/Supporting double nomination. Also, justice for Zendaya and Emma Stone!
I agree sofia gascon so weak performance but her role good.the actor who make her role before be trans better than her and she same if she supporting and mycy madison better as leading than her
Demi Moore & #TeamSubstsnce FTW! Of the many good horror movies this year, I thought it had the best chance of breaking through with awards recognition, much more than Longlegs. I wonder if Nosferatu will get any noms?
Idk if this is in bad taste to say but someone mentioned on twitter that because of the LA fires the international voting body is going to have a bigger say on nominations since everyone in LA and America is too focused on the catastrophic tragedy to care about voting and they might be right. Therefore I think for Actress specifically its gonna be Demi and Carla (french movies) Fernanda (Brazilian Movie) Marianne Jean Baptise (British Movie) and the third spot who knows, Pamela Anderson probably cause of SAG
Just watched your Supporting Actress comments. My favorites: 1. Zoe Saldana 2. Carol Kane 3. Isabella Rossellini 4. Emily Watson 5. Felicity Jones 6. Julianne Moore 7. Elle Fanning 8. Ariana Grande 9. Margaret Qualley 10. Selena Gomez 11. Monica Barbaro Who I think will get in: Saldana, Grande, Jones, Qualley, Rossellini It was an excellent year for both lead and supporting actresses.
Hi Brian! I have a great idea for a video that could be really cool: What if the Academy had 10 Best Picture Nominations for like a certain period of time. I created my own list for 1998-2008 and would love to compare my thoughts with yours :D And I have a controversial opinion, in that I think Challengers might be nominated for BP over Sing Sing but we'll see lol
Supp Actor Culkin,Pearce,Norton,Strong,Washington Supp Actress Barbaro,Grande,Curtis,Jones,Saldana Actor Stan,Craig,Chalamet,Fiennes,Brody Actress Erivo,Gascon,Madison,Baptiste,Jolie
@@prettydaisyyy Why terrible,these are all people in contention,I love Moore and just don't want to jinx her,I do believe Stan has a chance even Edward Norton says he and Strong are fantastic in The Apprentice.
@@leightonbate7516 yeah but some predictions are 99% person gonna happen, it’s more likely for Craig to miss than domingo even if sing sing misses screenplay, supporting actor and picture
My only critique of Fernanda Torres gets in because of winning GG Drama Actress and there’s only been two women who didn’t get nominated that won GG is there’s much more competition nowadays than back then. More publicity for actors. More studios campaigning. More everything I feel like. And it shows if there’s debate is she number 5? Def makes it more fun to predict.
The actress i'm hoping wins something at the oscars this year is Felicity Jones for best suporting actress in "The Brutalist". I felt she should've best lead actresss for her terrific role as RBG in "On The Basis Of Sex" back at the 2019 oscars. It would marvelous to see her get her first oscar.
@thewendigo9102 I think Felicity has a chance based on the fact her performance is in one of the most hyped movies this award season. I'm expecting Adrian Brody to win best actor at the oscars. Fingers crossed 🤞🤞
@@colettecarroll9371 I don't even know when The Brutalist will open in my country, it hasn't even been announced on any of the cinema websites, so it might premiere at our biggest film festival n late February/early March just before the Oscars and sometimes even overlaps with it. I was horrified when i realized he was spoiling the film's ending, and covered my ears after the first couple of sentences, but I have already learned too much.
My Oscar predictions: Best Actress - [ ] Mickey Madison - Anora - [ ] Karla Sofia-Gascon - Emilia Perez - [ ] Fernanda Torres - I’m still here - [ ] Demi Moore - The Substance - [ ] Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
![Noob To Max With DRAGON REWORK In Blox Fruits [FULL MOVIE]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/LnBMOinoOvA/mqdefault.jpg)
21:07 best actress list
32:32 best actor list
54:39 best supporting actress
1:14:49 best supporting actor
THANK YOU
THANK YOU
The Substance isn’t just any horror movie , it’s a horror movie about aging which will resonate with Hollywood in a way no other horror movie has before.
I think Demi looks like the Frontrunner now, after her GG win and speech, and her career narrative also will boost her chances.
No Demi Moore
Not for such a gross film.
@@skylark1250unfortunately for you the industry loves the substance. A lot of noms at globe, over performed in Bafta long list, and will at least get lead actress and best makeup at Oscars. So yes, Demi is a shoo-in for nom and could actually win it. She is way overdue and delivers a magnificent performance
Would be enthusiastic if she won @@jarm8618
@ doesn’t matter. It’s a gross film.
It would be absolutely revolutionary and historic if Fernanda Torres was nominated and also won.
but she wasn't the best. we should give the awards to the best!
@@disierra-amado5596 you are $h!t. And gave that Oscar to Gwyneth weak Paltrow...
@@disierra-amado5596hahahah
Oh! Of course! Who was the best?
@@disierra-amado5596she IS the best…
Why is it historic ?
For Best Actress, I have:
1. Demi Moore
2. Cynthia Erivo
3. Mikey Madison
4. Fernanda Torres
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste
@@LandoHendrix444 Karla will get in
Unfortunately Karla Sofía Gascón is pretty much a lock-in. The awards seem to love Emilia Pérez for some reason.
it would be the perfect line-up
@@lucca000I mean after Gaga missed the oscars after being the only actress having literally every single precursor everything is possible.
I would love such a list
It’s honestly funny how Ingrid Bergman won her third Oscar for mainly a short scene in a 1974 ensemble thriller, and 50 years later, her daughter might be nominated for mainly a short scene in a 2024 ensemble thriller
And they both play devoutly religious women too, since Ingrid played a missionary in Murder on the Orient Express!
I like it. Great point.
I really want Fernanda Torres or Demi Moore to win best actress. I watched all the movie and can say they were the stand out for me. So you can imagine how HAPPY I was when the golden globe gave the win for them.
I want a Fernanda Torres nomination
I'm rooting for Fernanda Torres and Marianne Jean_Baptiste to be nominated for best actress.
I’m thinking only one of them will be nominated
I hope it will be Torres! 🙏🏾🙏🏾
@ same
@@thewendigo9102I wish both could be nominated instead of Gascón, but this is probally impossimble😔
Whom would be your other three?
As a brazilian, it was a shook seeing Fernanda Torres winning, it was like world coup in our country. And if you see anything oscar-related or award season-related, you will notice the huge ratio between Fernanda and the other nominees, the amount of likes, positive comments and excitement towards her is huuuge. If this film loses the award for best international film there will be rage, because Emilia Perez is awful, is not like Central Station losing to The Life Is Beautiful which was deserving too.
My list of the nominees (If i could vote)
Best actress
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
Best actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice or A Different Man)
Best supporting actress
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
Best supporting actor
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Yurs Borisov (Anora)
Rooting for Demi and The Substances as usual.
#TeamSubstance🎉
In a "perfect" world, I would have the nominees for Best Actress be,
Demi Moore
Mickey Madison
Pamela Anderson
Fernanda Torres
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
I love that you have Pamela Anderson in there. Haven't seen The Last Showgirl yet so not sure that it's deserved over the others, but she's a sentimental favourite. Just watched the documentary made by her son, Pamela, A Love Story and it was amazing. Incredibly personal and engaging.
@flowerfaeri Since you just watched the documentary, I highly recommend you check out "The Last Showgirl." At the end of the documentary, if it had you rooting for Pamela, you'll be touched and heartbroken by her performance in the new film. It'll have you rooting for her even more.
Definitely check it out!
Love, love, LOVE that list.
My personal list too
Yessss
Best Leading Actor:
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
3. Daniel Craig (Queer)
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
5. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Best Leading Actress:
1. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
3. Mikey Madison (Anora)
4. Demi Moore (The Substance)
5. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Yura Borisov (Anora)
2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
4. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
2. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
3. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
5. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Erivo winning is spicy but not impossible. I think Wicked will win SAG Ensemble which increases her chances
@@joelanthonylim6792 I think they’ve just put it in alphabetical order
By second name
Zoe Saldana as supporting actress is an extreme case of category fraud. She's got top billing, more screen time than Gascon, and the story is mostly told from her character's POV. I'm sick and tired of the supporting categories emphasizing screen time over the quality of the acting.
I think the key strength Cynthia Erivo has over Margot Robbie is that Cynthia has Defying Gravity. Margot has amazing comedic and dramatic moments throughout Barbie, but I think how much Cynthia nailed Defying Gravity will make it pretty hard for people to pass her up on their nominations list.
On the other hand, wicked is a 2 part movie. They might prefer to wait to nominate her next year...
On the other hand, wicked is a 2 part movie. They might prefer to wait to nominate her next year...
@@mrsrdan Ian McKellen got a nomination for the first Lord of the Rings and none of the others
Fernanda Torres deserves so much this nomination
My favorite lead actress:
1. Marianne Jean-Baptiste
2. Fernanda Torres
3. Mikey Madison
4. Karla Sofia Gascon
5. Tilda Swinton
6. Pamela Anderson
7. Kate Winslet
8. Demi Moore
9. Nicole Kidman
10. Angelina Jolie
11. Amy Adams
Who I think will get in:
Demi, Mikey, Karla, Marianne, Fernanda
I think one factor people are forgetting with such a packed category…Cynthia can be eligible for next year with the second part of “Wicked.”
I agree about Cynthia but I think people have a hard time putting Grande in and not Erivo. Those performances go hand and hand. Plus she’s a previous* nominee.
@@SenatorLeiaOrganaSolo Why not, if the lead category is stronger than the supporting one, which is definitely the case?
@ what does “precious” nominee mean? I haven’t heard that phrase before.
I have problems with Cynthia and Ariana not both being in the lead category. So while I understand them going “hand in hand” as you said, Grande being in supporting is category fraud.
Ariana doesn’t have as much competition as Cynthia does, which is another reason (BIG reason) why I think Ariana will definitely get in, but Cynthia will just “probably” get in.
@@kevinhebner6773I reckon they meant ‘previous’.
And she deserves to be nominated for both
I'm going to (respectfully) brag here. Nick says that a month ago people were not predicting Demi Moore and not placing her in their top five. I was predicting Demi back in October, and I made a video a month ago about how not only could she win the Oscar, but even if you didn't believe that, how it was very possible that her nomination was secure! Definitely one of my prouder moments this year. 😊
Fernanda Torres all the way
The fact that Demi is now locked in makes me so happy! I was just hoping for a nomination 😅 but to be the front runner to win! I'm so hyped a film like The Substance and her acting in get can get attention ❤️
Natalie Portman also won for Black Swan and it was an unconventional movie for the OSCARS. Demi has a chance too.
I’m gonna call it right now, next year is finally gonna be Colman Domingo’s Oscar year. I have him winning supporting actor for portraying Joe Jackson in Michael.
Getting nominated 3 times in a row is such an impressive feat, rooting that happens
A24 fucked up his chances this year. They wrong for that.
I'm already predicting the same!
Not nominated for Sing Sing? I’d hope so. It’s excellent.
@@colettecarroll9371He mean that's Colman is gonna win next year. Not this year.
She deserves an Oscar, and having her mother at the audience from the highest of her 90s chearing for the daughter. It will be historical!
Torres all the way!
Love Fernanda Torres
Fernanda Torres is getting the Oscar nomination!!! 💚💚🇧🇷🏆
The nominations announcement has changed to 19th Jan due to LA fires so don't get up early on Friday morning Brian.
I don’t know what difference two days makes.
ROOTING FOR NANDA
nandos?
My hope for Best Actress is
Cynthia Erivo
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Mikey Madison
Demi Moore
Fernanda Torres
Same but there is no shot in hell Carla doesn't get in, they love that abomination of a movie for some god forsaken reason
@ I honestly think it’s gonna be a Barbie situation because Margot Robbie was nominated everywhere too and then missed the Oscars
Fernanda Torres❤❤❤
Lovely discussion with muh thought put into it.
Experience in this industry really counts.
Fernanda better be nominated
Hey Brian, I would love to hear you guy's list of "should" based on the work, not on the logistics, and analytics of prior winners, award shows, etc.
We need pamela anderson and jamie lee Curtis for lead and supporting actress oscar nomination for The Last Showgirl
If the Academy were brave, they’d give a nomination to June Squibb for Thelma.
Good point Love her
Beyond awards conversations, i can listen to you guys all day - whatever you guys are talking i feel like i can listen to you all day long hahah.
Just a few things to seriously consider Curtis:
-she is an actors actor or had became that in recent years, won an Oscar, won an Emmy and is everywhere at every ceremony and everyone is cheering for her
-her role is transformative, loud, scene stealing part, CLASSIC SUPPORTING ROLE
-she actually had got the best reviews from that film, people come for Anderson, but they are surprised by Curtis, its said that She HAS THE BEST/MOST MEMORABLE SCENE IN THE FILM
-She got at Bafta Longlist, and got in at SAG for a small little movie, which means a huge part of 150.000 voted for her
-The Last Showgirl inspires curiosity cause of its narrative, the screener was watched (as we saw at SAG)
-she is the only hugely respected, famous veteran beside Rossellini, although Rossellini has the never been nominated narrative
-The Last Showgirl campaign was handled by Curtis who is master at campaign and Coppolas (just something to consider)
-If Anderson doesnt get in, Curtis can cause two different categories, one more and one less competitive (Holly Hunter Thirteen, Wood snubbed, Hunt in Session, Hawkes snubbed, etc, LInney in Kinsey, Neeson snubbed)
-She had donated 1 million to LA Fire Relief
-Its a two acting contender film (Nyad, Albert Nobbs, The Sessions, only J. Edgar lost all acting noms being the multiple acting contender that had got at SAG in last 20 years)
@@antoniodjordjevic9493 EXCELLENT points!!
Really spot on. Thank you
Thanks, good in depth conversation. Your collaborations are great Brian.
Best watched at 1.5x speed.
Great content, guys. Happy for the complicated awards season!
I'm shocked Bryan is not anti-dicting Demi after predicting The Substance " makeup only" for
months 🙂
The hurdle for the Substance is if it would be taken seriously by the industry and the critics. Now we see it has since Demi, Qualley and the movie itself are getting nominated in various places, AND Demi won, so that is a guarantee she can get a nom and possibly win. Brian never usually anti-dicts in his videos.
How is that shocking?? He was right to assume it wouldn’t get in cause it’s a horror which the academy notoriously hates. If Demi wasn’t as popular as she was and has this narrative around her, the Substance wouldn’t be going far.
@@claireindigo1200 Sweets, Whatch his last best actress prediction? and you will get what I mean
@@joelanthonylim6792 He has been on the Anora train since September. He always praises Baker's films, like other young RUclipsrs, and wants a Baker film to win an Oscar. Demi has been coming on strong since Cannes, but the constant 'so called horror bias' narrative is used to keep her out of the race until The Globes, as he knows that if Demi gets nominated, Madison, being a relatively young actress, has no narrative to win. Maybe she will win I don't know. But Anora doesn’t have anything substantial like Room or Silver Linings Playbook to take our young Madison to the victory.
@@claireindigo1200 So how did it make money? And if it's only for Demi's narrative, why is The Substance receiving so many guild nominations in different categories? You’re not really following the awards season, are you?
I thought Erivo would build momentum over the season but it does seem to be waning. However, I think she will get nominated and she will only be the SECOND Black woman after Viola Davis to be nominated in Best Actress more than once.
Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Pamela Anderson, Cynthia Erivo, and then either Marianne Jean Baptiste or Fernanda Torres.
@@kidcarroll7312 Karla will get nominated and probbaly not Pamela Anderson
@ indeed. I don’t disagree! Wishful thinking. Not a big fan of the way that Gascon has responded to Mexican critics of the film. Also, not going to count Pamela out completely.
My picks for Best Actress are
Fernanda Torres
Demi Moore
Cynthia Erivo
Mikey Madison
Angelina Jolie
It’s so sad to see such an offensive, racist and terrible movie like Emilia Pérez getting so much undeserved recognition
I loved it.
Maybe now that hating this movie is becoming the new trend, that racist narrative is catching on and people are multiplying that same exact take on this movie… Maybe it will lose momentum.
That movie is terrible! Not only for the racist matter but also for how fake it is, I mean I hv a lot of mexicans friends here in Europe and they keep proving how everything is wrong in EP. Critics all over the world are loving it because they’re not mexicans…
Anyway; FERNANDA & DEMI are the best I saw from lists till now.
I agree that it's overrated, but racist is a strong word. While perhaps well-meaning, the criticisms of it are valid. It's a film that attempts to tackle serious issues concerning Mexico, with no Mexicans in leading roles and little sensitivity to actual Mexicans or input from any in the industry. It's just not that good and as for the songs, I'd listen to Miley Cyrus' Beautiful That Way (The Last Showgirl) or Maren Morris' Kiss the Sky (The Last Robot) over anything in Emily Perez any day.
My thoughts exactly
I hate the viewpoint of waiting for a part two or because someone is so young and new on the scene, for the very reason you stated. You never know what will happen the next year. Award people when they’ve earned it.
Fernanda Torres is the best and she deserved the OSCAR!!!
really fun conversation! thank you both! loved your working through each list so thoroughly.
my choices (no predictions, alas...i'm really not good at being an oracle) are:
Best Actress - Demi Moore...also truly loved Mikey Madison, but THIS role done by Moore, in the way she did it, was unflinching and unforgettable! Brava!
Best Actor - Adrian Brody...everyone else did superb work, but the scope of his performance and the reach of this film astounds.
Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana. I loved this weird, one-of-a-kind, messy film so much, and she took herself to the limit & it was tremendous.
Best Supporting Actor - Kieran Culkin. There is no competition. He just did it his way, and it rocked.
It amazes me how determined Oscar predictors are to never predict Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, and then it's a !surprise" when he gets a Golden Globe and SAG nomination (beating the alphabet bias) and is on BAFTA longlist and very likely to get nominated for a BAFTA.
Fernanda Torres MUST get in!
Thank you for your amazing videos!
Is it just me or does anyone else think Nick looks like a young Phil Dunphy/Ty Burrell. I can’t unsee it 😂
This is such a great channel
Ghostlight is one of the best films I've seen in 2024, but it seems nobody is talking about it.
Fernanda Torres is amazing!!! 🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷
Torres and Moore are the ones I think deserve the win the most. Torres has realistically no chance, which is sad, given she is latina.
Agree. It would be a game changing, at least for a while, if Fernanda wins (her mother should have won back in 99). She DOES represent Latin America
I think Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Mikey Madison deserve it the most, based on performances alone.
Interesting insights guys! Thanks🎉
What if Cynthia Erivo is like Margot Robbie and viola Davis, where she gets every precursor but gets snubbed for the Oscar?
Hopefully
It would be sad if it happened. But it has been the trend the last 3 years in a row with best actress. Gaga, Davis and Robbie all got the 4 precursors, but missed the Oscar nom.
I have her out because I have MJB and Torres making it in
fernanda torres deserves this nomination asf
How cool that you got Jake Gyllenhaal on your show.
Demi for the Oscar 🎉
I am a Hollywood academic and I refuse to vote for nonsense
Here in Brazil we got crazy when she won the Golden Globe. We wish to see her at the Oscars like her mother ❤
Why are all your friends hot? Lol
😄😄😄😄
See when ur gay,
Im also rooting for Demi.
However, (whether we like it or not) i think the fifth spot will be given Pamela Anderson. Take note of her GG and SAG nominations.
19:27 I don't think Kate Winslet is that far below the other candidates, in fact it surprises me a little how underestimated she has been.
Ok, maybe in a bigger context we have this feeling of "Oh no, another WWII drama" may have more influence on our assessment than the performance itself.
But seriously? Mikey Madison? Karla Sofía Gascón? Cynthia Erivo? Angelina Jolie? I haven't seen anything THAT amazing in any of them, but I can understand.
Things have changed, generations have changed, and in a world where "Brat" is considered a pop masterpiece, it doesn't surprise me that cinema is also going through social media phase (or redefine), where the public's commotion, and the likeability of the character/actor has increasingly impacted critics and awards, more than ever.
A clear example of this is when Cate Blanchett lost her Oscar for Tár, where she simply delivers not only the performance of her career, but so far, of the decade. Nothing against Michelle Yeoh, but we know she won because of the film's popularity/likeability. Even Jamie Lee Curtis won her Oscar surfing this wave.
This is why Demi Moore will (probably) win her first (and well-deserved) Oscar, supported more by his campaign/speech than by his performance. Even knowing that Fernanda Torres delivers a better performance.
This might be a little worrying perhaps, but still understandable, and VERY debatable.
I found Winslet's performance laughably bad. I literally sniggered at her "old lady" acting, half-believing it was meant to be comedic. Dreadful film, regardless.
@@grantc61 kate winslet old for role
@@grantc61 Laughable is your poor sense of how to avoid being ridiculous. Thank you for your attention.
Fernanda deserves to win
hey Brian, can you please bring on a female critic next time??? I just feel like that commentary on the lead & supporting actress races could be more layered & enjoyable for everybody’s pleasure
I hope both Marianne Jean Baptiste and Fernanda Torres get in, instead of Karla Gascón...
Karla is fa better than them
@@dilara3332 Me when I lie
@@planktonscollective7129 na she’ll probably get nominated
🤔
Fernanda Torres should win
I wonder how Emilia Perez will do at BAFTA. It reminds me of Killers of the Flower Moon, a story that didn't resonate with British audiences. It was too American.
Europe is the only place that *likes* Em*lia P*rez
Bafta nomnation two days later
Nick looks like a young Christan Bale!!
I'm only hoping for a few surprises on the acting categories! We've gotten a few in that last years.
Did the SAG voting period end before the Golden Globes ceremony? I think the Globes winners and speeches are going to affect nominations going forward. With that in mind; these are my predictions as of now before we get the final piece of the puzzle, the BAFTA nominations on the 15th:
Actress
1. Demi Moore
2. Mikey Madison
3. Karla Sofia Gascon
4. Marianne Jean-Baptiste
5. Fernanda Torres
Actor
1. Adrien Brody
2. Timothee Chalamet
3. Colman Domingo
4. Ralph Fiennes
5. Sebastian Stan
Supporting Actress
1. Zoe Saldana
2. Ariana Grande
3. Isabella Rossellini
4. Felicity Jones
5. Monica Barbaro
Supporting Actor
1. Kieran Culkin
2. Guy Pearce
3. Edward Norton
4. Yura Borisov
5. Jeremy Strong
If Cynthia Erivo wins an Oscar she will be an EGOT winner
Dont be surprise if Pamela Anderson will receive the oscar… shes superb excellent in the Last Showgirl… Runner-up is Demi Moore and followed by Fernanda Torres…
For actor, Ralph Fiennes will accept the oscar, which runner-up is Adrien Brody and followed by Daniel Craig and Timothee Challamet…
The problem is The Last Showgirl isn't as liked a film as The Substance, which is also competitive in several other categories, including director (although I have a bad feeling about that). It'll take a miracle for Anderson to get nominated IMHO. Winning is out of the question.
😮
Love to see Demi Moore wins for best actress!
I would imagine that Kieran Culkin got lead instead of supporting I will be shocked some may think that Guy Pearce could win or it’s up to the voters to choose
Kierian kulkin sooo bad he make tourist film airport and hotel and room and eat in boland i dont know why he make funny film about hoolcoust and he never make any acting same if he make youtubechanell
I love Marianne Jean-Baptiste!
Zoe Saldaña has an amazing career, seems to be beloved by her peers and audiences alike, and is a very talented, versatile actress, however, Ariana really shines in Wicked and her performance is so much more enjoyable than Saldaña’s, I think Wicked will “age” so much better than Emilia Perez. Having said this, I think academy voters will give it to Saldaña because of her career, even though Grande really embodied her character and is so delightful in her performance.
Best actress: Fernanda Torres!!!!
FERNANDA TORRES
Best Actor Predictions: Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Eisenberg, Fiennes
Actress: Anderson, Erivo, Madison, Moore, Torres
S. Actor: Borisov, Culkin, Macklin, Norton, Pearce
S. Actress: Barbero, Curtis, Deadwyler, Grande, Saldana
Director: Baker, Chu, Corbet, Fargeat, Marigold
Picture: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Brutalist, Conclave, Dune 2, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
Chu is not getting a nomination, and neither is Eisenberg for acting. Even if A Real Pain were to get nominated for BP (which you're not even predicting, so I don't know where the Eisenberg prediction comes from).
Maclin might, but it's increasingly unlikely unless there is some late resurgence of Sing Sing.
How can there be a Oscars ceremony? Half the city is on fire.
The cermony after two month almost
The Substance should be sweeping
I think Cynthia Ervo will miss out the nomination because Margot Robbie missed out for Barbie, as well as Amy Adams for Arrival. And plus, Oscars favour international performances. Wicked is relatively similar to Barbie last year, so it's risky.
I'm literally sitting in front of the BAFTA Longlist wondering when you two were gonna mention Saoirse Ronan! I'm still holding out for a BAFTA nomination but regardless, it's been a bummer of a season considering I thought she was gonna get the hallowed Leading/Supporting double nomination. Also, justice for Zendaya and Emma Stone!
Fernanda Torres is incredible in the film, she really deserves this Oscar nomination, I also hope that the film receives more Oscar nominations❤
I would take out Karla Sofía Gascón and have Torres and Baptiste get in instead.
I agree sofia gascon so weak performance but her role good.the actor who make her role before be trans better than her and she same if she supporting and mycy madison better as leading than her
Demi Moore & #TeamSubstsnce FTW! Of the many good horror movies this year, I thought it had the best chance of breaking through with awards recognition, much more than Longlegs.
I wonder if Nosferatu will get any noms?
Idk if this is in bad taste to say but someone mentioned on twitter that because of the LA fires the international voting body is going to have a bigger say on nominations since everyone in LA and America is too focused on the catastrophic tragedy to care about voting and they might be right. Therefore I think for Actress specifically its gonna be Demi and Carla (french movies) Fernanda (Brazilian Movie) Marianne Jean Baptise (British Movie) and the third spot who knows, Pamela Anderson probably cause of SAG
Just watched your Supporting Actress comments.
My favorites:
1. Zoe Saldana
2. Carol Kane
3. Isabella Rossellini
4. Emily Watson
5. Felicity Jones
6. Julianne Moore
7. Elle Fanning
8. Ariana Grande
9. Margaret Qualley
10. Selena Gomez
11. Monica Barbaro
Who I think will get in:
Saldana, Grande, Jones, Qualley, Rossellini
It was an excellent year for both lead and supporting actresses.
Fringers crossed for Felicity Jones 🤞🤞
Nick is so fiiiiine! Don't worry you are too Brian! ;)
Hi Brian! I have a great idea for a video that could be really cool: What if the Academy had 10 Best Picture Nominations for like a certain period of time. I created my own list for 1998-2008 and would love to compare my thoughts with yours :D
And I have a controversial opinion, in that I think Challengers might be nominated for BP over Sing Sing but we'll see lol
Demi Moore is the favourite of the people ! And now if she gets the SAG that’s all. The Oscar is in her pocket ❤
Supp Actor Culkin,Pearce,Norton,Strong,Washington
Supp Actress Barbaro,Grande,Curtis,Jones,Saldana
Actor Stan,Craig,Chalamet,Fiennes,Brody
Actress Erivo,Gascon,Madison,Baptiste,Jolie
terrible lineup
@@leightonbate7516 Domingo will get actor, Jamie Lee Curtis won’t get supporting, yura borisov and Demi Moore will both get in
@@thewendigo9102 You must be able to see into the future then,they are just predictions not facts.
@@prettydaisyyy Why terrible,these are all people in contention,I love Moore and just don't want to jinx her,I do believe Stan has a chance even Edward Norton says he and Strong are fantastic in The Apprentice.
@@leightonbate7516 yeah but some predictions are 99% person gonna happen, it’s more likely for Craig to miss than domingo even if sing sing misses screenplay, supporting actor and picture
The smartest creator is that put Fernanda Torres' picture on the thumb of the video. Hahaha
My only critique of Fernanda Torres gets in because of winning GG Drama Actress and there’s only been two women who didn’t get nominated that won GG is there’s much more competition nowadays than back then. More publicity for actors. More studios campaigning. More everything I feel like. And it shows if there’s debate is she number 5?
Def makes it more fun to predict.
i think 'wicked' could be the film that only nominated the supporting actress, like 'barbie'. fernanda and marianne could enter... i'll cheer
Yess that bald headed butch gremlin is toast
Baby Cynthia is gonna have a meltdown if that happens.
Hoprfully
Wickid tradtinal children acting
Wicked haters are in such denial that theyre pretending it won't absolutely sweep the techs 😂
The actress i'm hoping wins something at the oscars this year is Felicity Jones for best suporting actress in "The Brutalist". I felt she should've best lead actresss for her terrific role as RBG in "On The Basis Of Sex" back at the 2019 oscars. It would marvelous to see her get her first oscar.
@BoctorPink same I wish she was getting more win contention hope she’s not snubbed
@thewendigo9102 I think Felicity has a chance based on the fact her performance is in one of the most hyped movies this award season. I'm expecting Adrian Brody to win best actor at the oscars. Fingers crossed 🤞🤞
Your guest spoiled a major plot detail for The Brutalist. Most of us haven’t seen it yet!
😢
It’s not opened here (in Ireland) until next weekend. Hard Truth, the Mike Leigh film, doesn’t open until 31 January.
@@colettecarroll9371 I don't even know when The Brutalist will open in my country, it hasn't even been announced on any of the cinema websites, so it might premiere at our biggest film festival n late February/early March just before the Oscars and sometimes even overlaps with it.
I was horrified when i realized he was spoiling the film's ending, and covered my ears after the first couple of sentences, but I have already learned too much.
I think the biggest surprise would be Pamela Anderson for Showgirl. The academy loves a “comeback”.
My Oscar predictions:
Best Actress
- [ ] Mickey Madison - Anora
- [ ] Karla Sofia-Gascon - Emilia Perez
- [ ] Fernanda Torres - I’m still here
- [ ] Demi Moore - The Substance
- [ ] Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths