Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe
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- Опубликовано: 3 июл 2024
- Analysis of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. I use Kilcullen's theory about liminal warfare and prospect theory to analyse the operational design.
This shows that Russia is the most likely suspect, because all other actors would have made different operational choices.
I then give some pretty depressing perspectives on how Russia might use hybrid warfare against Europe.
0:00 Intro
1:02 Model for hybrid warfare
1:51 Operational design of Nord Stream sabotage
3:05 Consequences of the attack
4:59 US, Poland and Ukraine
6:56 NGOs and climate activists
7:25 Russia
8:17 Who would take the risk?
8:42 Prospect theory
9:33 Russia likely to take risks
10:16 Blow up their own pipeline?
11:30 Hybrid war on Europe
One of the rare occasion I praised the RUclips algorithm is recommending your channel to me. I always learned something new in your video, thank you so much!
He is pretty awesome. He is more or less the go to person that the danish media use when they need an informed opinion on something relating to war or power politics.
Yes, and he also doesn't just repeat what everyone else is saying, but truly brings a different analysis on the situation
Same here. Awesome channel!
Yeah outstanding channel. Also, I think there’s a trick to cultivating the algorithm to make good recommendations, for one don’t leave anything on your history that you don’t want it influenced by, I also generally don’t leave likes or dislikes since that can sway the returns too. The more you watch short vids the more short it’ll recommend and this is a good example of influencing it in real time, click on a few long vids or so and you’ll start seeing more long ones recommended pretty quick. So if you’re getting frustrated, try opening a few old vids similar to what you want new content on, gaming news etc. don’t have to watch but just get them in your recent history and it’ll fish around, once it gets a feel for what you want it can be pretty good tbh.
@@itsjustameme He is using western Propaganda to say Russia is loosing. Not true, the west is loosing. They are trying to start a nuclear incident but it will not work.
Fascinating analysis, much better than any conventional news source, thanks!
Excellent analysis! Much more in-depth than anything I could find anywhere else. Thank you for sharing your insights!
Perun, Joe Blogs, Ward Carroll with Justin Bronk, "Starbaby" Pietrucha on 10 percent true. There, now you got more of this level of quality. I could name 5 more. The notion that only bs is out there is far from the truth. No one single handedly delivers a complete picture.
What does a clandestine pipeline attack look like then? How do you not create awareness of an attack on one?
This is the analysis that makes the most sense so far.good job
Really waited for a new analysis from this channel
Zeit journalist investigation suggests they identified the boat but not the team identity
nor who gave the order.
Very enlightening as always, thanks!
Interesting. You made a better case than I've heard elsewhere. Thanks Anders.
Better case? Makes no sense. Russia didn't attack their own people. Azov did. Russia is already building back homes the region. Hitting the pipeline makes no sense for the Russians. US or close ally did. People need to wake up United States is becoming a pawn to the United Nations. United? UN is United-ly run by woke tyrants.
Indeed. I think one of the problems with this - at least for me - is that there has been no good arguments presented for why Russia would do this, and an overabundance of "of course Russia did, they're the bad guys".
As with origins of Covid it is the absence of speculation, what looks like a manufactured silence in the press, that makes one suspicious.
In terms of straight forward effects, cui bono, it is extremely hard not to jump to "someone who wanted Germany to have no choices". My first thought was Baltics + Poland.
But the risks there if exposed would be too great, might rupture NATO quite badly.
@@Asptuber That and 'Russia has nothing to lose (i.e. Ukraine War going badly, Putin's only options for escalation; 1. conventional mobilization -which is sputtering out before it begins, 2. attack western civilian infrastructure, 3. nuclear - would likely not have desired effect and have huge downside, so choose Option 2), Putin is acting erratically/irrationally (an argument I'd normally dismiss out of hand but given the conduct of the Ukraine War actually sounds plausible)' is the gist of Anders argument if I understand him correctly. Given the huge downside of attribution if done by a western/european country this doesn't sound quite as crazy on second thought as it does on first blush.
Very good, insightful analysis. What both gives me confidence and disturbs me is that, except for the models of assessing it, your thoughts and conclusions are exactly those I had tuesday morning when I first heard about the leaks that monday. Tak skal du have!
This is such a great video, it clarified some important ideas that i kind of understood but had no idea how to frame in my thinking. Thank you.
Hahaha, it's just, everything is wrong.
thank you for a very educationel analysis ( as usual ). I allways look forward to your next video. Understanding is really important for me.
Thank you for your update on this subject!
Thank you for talking about this topic - I was afraid you wouldn’t be allowed to talk more on this issue!
Watched you on TV where you also explained the concept of Hybrid Warfare and the space for covert operations - always a bit weird hearing you talk Danish because I’m so used to you speaking English here on RUclips!
Also, you’re definitely spot on on this issue!
Tak for din kæmpe indsats for at holde os opdaterede - er virkelig taknemmelig for det!
The pipelines will be obsolete very soon anyway - and the benefit of blowing up their own pipeline is that we can’t even accuse them for an act of war against any of us!
Also, now they don’t have to deliver agreed gas through NS1 and can get a much higher price on the gas they do deliver through other pipelines, such as the Yamal-Jamal-Jagal
Same. I thought I heard that the employees at "Forsvarsakademiet"/"The Defense Academy" had been told not to talk publicly about this issue. I was obviously wrong.
Greetings from Norway. That was my impression too! But I am glad that you where able to share your thoughts and insight again. We are quite worried here in Norway with alle the critical infrastructures in 5he North Sea and all 5he people we have working there.
@@raahauge
It’s probably just the findings from the investigation then - and as long as they don’t say anything else than what they already has said publicly it’s not a problem - at least that’s my guess!
@@gorillaguerillaDK I think you are right. In the video Anders is not sharing any information that is not already public.
Could you revisit this topic, in light of intelligence leaks blaming Ukraine? I still find it hard to believe as the adverse consequences for Ukraine might have been huge in that case. Or did Ukraine calculate that there is already too much of a commitment from Western states, for them to stop aid if Ukraine were to do such a thing? Makes the matter even more complicated, I'm really interested in further analysis of this case.
The US government blew it up, and they're changing the narrative because everyone started catching on to their bullcrap.
I'm glad i found your channel. It really adds to my yt experience and is very educative! Much appreciated. You deserve more subscribers.
Yt, u mean albians aka European hybrids grafted by Yakub aka jacob in the Bible?
I've been waiting for this video so desperately. Thank you for explaining this. Probably what the media will analyze for us in a month or so.
Yup! I've been waiting for this and wasn't disappointed!
hahaha, yes.
Thank you very much for your deep insights! Your videos help tremendesly to understand the current global situation.
Incredible analysis! Thanks for sharing and keep it up!
Brilliant and insightful analyses! Loving your channel and content
you are amazing. keep doing what you do! These videos and perspectives are awesome
Always a pleasure to watch! I learn a new logical way of thinking every time I watch this channel! Bravo!
This is one of the best analyses of something i have ever seen.
As always, very informative and excellent video. Thanks
You can really explain things very good about this topic thx for covering this! Also, I saw you on the Dutch national television about the northstream
Very interesting thoughts, thank you! Looking forward for video about war updates and frontline changes
Thanks for your support. Hope you have seen the new video on the frontlines.
Great analysis (as usual) - thank you!
Another excellent commentary, thanks
I always enjoy your professional analysis.
This has answered all my questions about how, why and who in regards to the pipeline explosions. Outstanding analysis. I had a hard time making sense of it before. It makes sense now. Thank you Anders.
Can you help me please, because I still cannot understand the reasoning. The first part of the video states that the operation was designed in a special way. My imagination fails to find any other way of permanently disabling the pipeline. US tried stop it through sanctions, it kinda worked, but now it is permanent. No computer attack or policy could do the same thing.
@@eugene7309 Policy would actually do the trick, it would just be very dick move from USA and not clandestine. Also cyber attack on such critical infrastructure would render it inoperable for months if not years until the end of investigation. Not to mention that you could have actually done the cyber attack in such a way that would render pipeline unusable. Over-pressurize it for example (if the pipe wouldn't blow up it would still have to be inspected - this would take years to allow European regulatory bodies to allow it to open). Force shutdowns due to attack and force lengthy investigations. Make use of how all of the European countries involved work and how lengthy the process of restoring faith and not having 80% of population be afraid that it will harm environment or brake down every couple of months, is.
There were cyber attacks done on small scale as well as proof of concepts on similar machinery. Destructive cyber attacks. I'm not talking about "ha, ha we hacked your website and you're down for 3 hours". Also there could be gradient - basically invisible cyber attack on gas turbines, so compressors etc. It would take longer and would take some time, but with that you could regulate the damage. Take it down for couple of months for example. And again, you're not seen, in some cases, you're not even suspected. And yes - it is completely doable to physically destroy modern running engine that is controlled by computer - as is case in such huge infrastructure project. For similar cyber attack see Stuxnet. Though there were a lot more tests done on things that are very similar to what is used in Nordstream.
@@jannegrey593 Yeah, Stuxnet is actually a great example . Took a while to realise it was an attack, but once found was obviously a US attack as they were the only one with the tools and motives to do it. Trying to do a non detectable attack makes it more obvious who performed the attack.
Don’t you remember how the Israeli/US s worm disabled the Iranian centrifuges?
@@johnle6982 Yep, Stuxnet.
woah.....this just made everything way more scary! Great video as always, love your work - thank you!
Another excellent analysis!
Wow... Amazing analysis!
Som vanlig; en meget interessant analyse. Takk for det. 👍
This was cogently argued and very informative. Thank you!
Another excellent video and analysis.
Anders I think there is 3 additions to this:
1) Gas prices were starting to fall the week prior to the bombings, that was not in the interest off Ruzzia, they want gas prices high also to hurt Europe this winter!
2) A Ruzzian professor came up with the theory that the Ruzzians did it because there were rumours off a law suit coming from Germany on breaking the contract! (alternative: Gazprom revencing that their top manegement got lost, falling out off windows)
3) By blaming the US/West for it, their narrative is: see their are coming to get us! (same time distracting from the war and the mobilisation)
Absolute nonsense
1) Grasping at straws
2) Irrelevant. Gazprom would not care because they are a Russian company based in Russia, so there would be no reach.
3) More grasping at straws
I think a fair assessment is that it was the Americans. You can always find arguments for everything. You arguments for Russia doing it is far weaker, than the arguments for 9/11 being an inside job or that there was no moon landing (not that I would agree - I have no idea, and don't really care).
Best regards!
The contract theory is just gibberish. Russia doesnt care about contracts, money or even reality, otherwise it wouldnt have started the war.
Not to mention, he thinks Russia cares enough about law to want to avoid paying fines, but not enough to publically blow up a pipeline? Imma call bullshit on that one.
It's not even a case of price, if it's not there now and you require it immediately, paying 1900 times the price for extra elsewhere in 5 days simply might not be enough.
@@itube0047 The idea that america did this is just as absurd as the reason being gas contracts. If you think so, then you dont understand the situation, like at all. Idk why youre even talking about this.
Watch the video. It explains a few reasons why what happened is nonsensical for the US but fits Russias behaviour.
@@termitreter6545 The fact that you are surprised someone is talking about this says enough about your open-mindedness. Lots of strange things happened in the last few years, before that as well but not as much in plain sight. You have to carefully judge each situation, and just because one video disagrees with a point of view, doesn't mean the video is automatically right. That's very narrowly minded. All I know is the Americans can't be trusted as well, I'm also not saying the Russians can be trusted. But the elites are playing their games and it's the common folk who always suffer the most, that's something I'm 100% sure of.
Great video as always. I always learn something watching your stuff. Thank you!
Great bullshit, US / Britain did it
They're not really that insightful. As usually, the guy has a conclusion and then looks for a way to reach it.
I occasionally get his stuff reccomended by YT and it's always the same MO.
At last a channel that asks you to think about things. Well done 👍
Good analysis and video
It's so refreshing having you analyse these issues. I always feel better after listening to your interpretation.🤝
too bad its all wrong
Stort tack, väldigt informativ!
I love your videos! Thanks for the great work.
Great analysis as always. Thanks! 👍
I was confused about this, but your analysis cleared it up. Wonderful analysis. Tight reasoning.
You may like our channel @globalshiffft for independent analysis and reporting on the Ukraine war and other geopolitical events. We're all here to learn
Superb analysis👍
Brilliant Analysis ❤
Excellent video Anders!
Super comprehensive analysis - as always. Thank you, and keep up the good work.
Thank you for your video, I found it most interesting 😀👍
Best wishes from the West Country area of the U.K.
Operation design and prospect theory, thanks for that. Highly enlightening.
Brilliant analysis- thank you!
Every time you publish a new video, I get more and more convinced that your channel has about a couple million subscribers less than it should
Yes! Definitiv!
These are great, thanks for making them I suspected Russia but this really explains why they would want to do this. Trying to do my part to get these boosted by the algorithm!
Nonsense. Do you have data proof Russia did this ?
Thanks for such an eye opening video!!
Great video as always :)
Great insights and analysis as always! Thank you!
Thank you! I like the theoretical background you planted in our heads 😉.
Great assessment of the situation Anders. Your arguments are well put out and logical.
Wow! What an incredible piece of analysis! Thank you Anders!
I'm not really convinced about the "below detection" option in this particular case. How on earth should it be possible to make these pipelines dysfunctional without anyone noticing that somebody made them dysfunctional?
It was Eskimos, undetected in their leather kayaks. They want to make us drill on Greenland. But it was not Americans. They wouldn't. They are good guys, all of them!
Theres a lot of ways to do this without blowing them up with 100s of kilograms of TNT equivalent.
Structurally weaken the pipeline, so they just burst at some point, maybe even try to make it look like an accident. Sabotage the ground stations so that opening the valves again causes a critcal failure. Make it so that its hard to detect, looks like an accident, or only happens when the pipeline is actually reactivated.
Im not an expert, but you got a serious lack of imagination if you think making it look like a giant act of terror was the only thing to do this. And you wont understand any of the politics if you cant imagine anything else.
Question is why haven’t they stopped pumping gas into it? Answer, their storage tanks were full, domestic use at 100% and millions of tonnes of gas is still coming out the ground needing moved on. They burn $10m worth a day by flaring off, blowing the pipes has let them off gas and pollute polish, German, Swedish and Danish waters instead of their own air only.
@@stevepirie8130 From what I read, one has to keep the pipes full of gas because the pipe is designed to use the inner pressure to resist the outer pressure. If I understand correctly, this also means the entire pipe is probably not any more structurally safe and would probably be "written off", if ever the EU needs and wants another such pipe (after a regime change in Russia) that means building another one.
below detection doesn't need to mean no one noticed a problem, it just means that the fact it was an attack/operation is left undetected. This can be as simple as intercepting and switching out some replacement machine component in transit, with a weaker one that will break and cause catastrophic damage. To everyone else looking at it, it seems like an accident. Therefore the sabotage remains undetected. A well hidden cyberattack could also be used to cause a machine to damage itself without being obvious.
While not an example of an operation meant to remain undetected, when the US sabotaged the Iranian nuclear program, they did so by inserting malware into the devices that controlled the centrifuges that enrich the uranium before they were delivered, then the malware caused the centrifuges to spin so fast they destroyed themselves. So the technical and operational capabilities to cause sabotage covertly was demonstrated.
Great video very insightful
Love ur video. Subscribed. Tks
Prospect theory is new to me, and I have imbedded the concept “people like to win, but really, really hate losing,” in how to think about this conflict. Your videos are like having a personal presidential briefing.
If piqued, you can find the original theory paper here: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, 'Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk', Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2 (Mar., 1979), pp.263-92.
@@cryhavoc8461 Thank you!
@@cryhavoc8461 I also want to thank you for this reference.
My money is on Iceland and Luxembourg 😂
Kahneman also explains the winning/losing in "thinking fast and slow", if youre more into easier lecture
(basically: people react differently to "you have a 10% chance to win 100$" than to "here, take these 100$, and now you have a 90% chance to lose these 100$")
I wish other You Tube channels would adopt your three second intro montage. There's no reason for a 15 minute video to have a 90 or more second intro.
Fantastic analysis
This was brilliant, thanks for sharing!
You offer some of the best methods to evaluate the current situation in Europe. Great job!
unfortunately yes
@@ThorstenStaerk Why is having a framework to understand things unfortunate out of curiosity?
Spot on, as always.
Welcome back my geopolitical dude
Just randomly, I found your profile. It's amazing to see this high-level logic analysis and have to say, that I do agree with all of your points.
Hahaha, 4 months later. Don't you feel fooled by now?
Great video...greetings from Slovakia.
Wow, what a nice job! I had been thinking about this and your logic helps me. An all around education in critical thinking.
Great channel,greetings from Slovakia.
Excellent analysis. Thank you, very much.
I love your analysis videos! thank you for doing all the work to share your perspective with us!
Biden admitted it
I totally agree with this analysis. I think Russia saw the writing on the wall with this pipeline and tried to cash in the chips while they still might be worth something. This move sows division in the west (which is working) and can also be blamed on the U.S. (a fan favourite), with the added benefit of intimidating European countries (notably those who are geographically close and may or may not be forming new military alliances with a certain treaty organisation)
I'm not an American but the notion that the United States would damage a gas pipeline like that is crazy/whacko/QAnan nonsense.
Well, this comment is promising. I've yet to watch the video but that's basically what my thinking on this situation is.
Pipelines are now useless to russia. They're off, they're staying off, Europe is never going to be its main customer again.
Blowing up the pipeline in a very visually distinctive way (giant jacuzzis in the Baltics are pretty impressive) is the only thing they're useful for now as it might damage European energy markets more, putting pressure on Europe but more importantly, causing friction between EU states on how to proceed.
Blame the US to add more friction.
What people don't realize is that Putin has been waging hybrid war against Europe since he got into power.
@@Logarithm906 The pipes are not useless, Russia made sure to keep one out of the two Nordstream two pipelines intact, which again proves it was behind the attack BTW.
Since the pipelines were attacked Finland and Sweden have not shown the slightest indication of withdrawing their applications to join NATO. Twenty-eight countries have approved their accession bid and when Turkey and Hungary follow suit it will be a done deal.
Fascinating breakdown. I love the logic in the expiation. Great JOB!
Thanks for sharing! Very good to get some, at least for me, new ways of thinking about the attack.
Its good to have a channel like yours, who look at the war with expert eyes. Keep up the good work👊
Well thought out.
Excellent analysis
Articulate and well thought out argument, presented clearly as always. Thanks from Australia.
Thanks for the nice words and your support.
Brilliant video as always. I came to the same final conclusion but your process is so informative and helpful. Thank you!
Love the videos. I do miss the grey backdrop from "bad design can kill" though, the blue gives me flashbacks to computer crashes from 1998.
Best video on this so far
Wow - such a lucid and compelling explanation without sensationalism. Congratulations! I will think about any new developments with a different sense of priorities now.
I value Anders' videos for exactly the reasons you state. 👍
I don't think it's compelling at all if you put a little thought into it
@@spaceowl5957 it makes a lot more sense than the US did it when the gains for the US are minimal those pipelines were dead and wouldn't have been used for a long time even if they didn't explode so Russia lost basically nothing and the US gained basically nothing, even when you do cost analysis Russia had more to gain than the US, especially when you take into account the one of the pipes survived which basically means that for the US the operation was a failure and from the Russian side it would be considered as a success (the one pipe surviving)
@@KevinSmith-qo3lv I'm German this is terrible for our economy. The prospect of reopening the pipelines would've (and already had) created a lot of pressure domestically to step away from the American line and be more cooperative with Russia.
Just one of the reasons why the US has a credible interest in this. Which Russia does not.
@@KevinSmith-qo3lv "even when you do cost analysis Russia had more to gain than the US" that's laughable
I'm impressed with and enjoy your presentations; professional neutral and to-the-point 😃
As an extrapolation of your video; I'd love to know what do you think regarding the drones observed near North Sea petro-platforms?
You're good! Please post more often...
Thank you for your video, now I have bulletproof arguments. You have one of best analysis on this topic.
Your analysis is unbelievably thorough, detailed and well put forward. RUclips amazes me again, we get access to such well made piece of information for free, yet so few people consume it. Keep it up Anders, your analysis is fantastic.
It's totally superficial and doesn't make any sense
Yes very good analysis. Regrettably RUclips also has heaps of dumb sh*t.
@@spaceowl5957 Yes it's total drivel, unless it is meant to preach to the unsuspectful choir. As it seems to be the case. Then it's great piece of disinformation.
A very reasonable analyses with a depressing outlook of the things to come. Please keep up the good work.
Great content a well thought out argument and properly defended with good reasoning.
Glad you like it - and thanks for your support.
I love your videos!
The pipeline was already shut. But still acted as leverage for future negotiations. Now it is blown up. And that leverage is gone. Who benefits?
NS1 was shut , NS 2 wasn't open yet.
Mind please that one pipeline of NS2 is left untouched, so it's more 'treat or trick' than leverage now.
I don't know.... I still think that they have much more to lose if they keep digging...
That was a good talk.
Great job
Hold op hvor er jeg glad for dine analyser både i nyhederne men særligt også disse deep dives 👏👏👏
Wow, how do you not have more subscribers? Fantastic and cogent analysis. Thanks so much for posting!
He doesn't have many subscribers because he is hopeless. Listen to this trash about Russia blowing up its own pipeline. Now we know for certain that the US did it with the help of the norwegians - and possibly the British. The latter surely connivant if mothing else.