Russia's new forever war in Ukraine, 11MAR2022
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- Опубликовано: 6 июл 2024
- The war in Ukraine has entered its third week. In this video I share some thoughts about how it is going and the perspectives for peace.
0:00 Intro
0:58 Poor Russian performance
2:03 Russia's strategy is deliberately slow
2:44 The battle for Kyiv
3:30 Who is time working for?
4:21 Medium-term predictions
5:06 Russia already lost the long game
5:52 The war is pointless, but won't end
Looking at this video a year later, it is amazing how accurately you called it.
Saw this in late November. It aged well! Not many youtubers have made predictions that still sounds good 8 months later.
Most youtubers don't make difference between tank and APC, apc let alone talking about long time perspectives.
7 months later and you are very correct so far.
The only good outcome of this war is if Russia is soundly defeated.
And then we need a Marshall Plan for Ukraine so they become a strong, prosperous and military well equipped democracy. Like West-Germany.
This is going to be incredibly hard, but I see it as the only way to prevent Russia from just having a pause and then trying again.
It is the only solution I see.
It’s impossible to recreate West-Germany’s post-war growth in Ukraine. For one Nazi Germany built its own weapons themselves and therefore grew its industry throughout the whole war. Lend-Leasing weapons from the US will only create an indebted country like post-war Britain. And secondly with only Ukraine destroyed and not the rest of Europe, there won’t be widespread booming demand for all kinds of industrial products. Unfortunately Ukraine will be much poorer after the war and stay so for many years.
@@jansix4287 Depends on how far they beat back Russia. There is a lot of gas and oil reserves in eastern Ukraine and the Sea of Azov. Preventing Ukraine from developing them is likely the main reason Russia invaded in the first place. If Ukraine can retake those areas they could become self-reliant on energy and could probably become a net exporter to Europe replacing gas and oil from Russia.
Looking at this video after 6 months is amazing how predicted what is happening now...
Hi Anders, I have been following you for a while and you always had an excellent point of view. this war crisis shocked us. We will appreciate it if you can make videos more often during this crisis.
Thanks, I appreciate it. I will try to post videos, but this crisis really takes a toll on my time. I do make quite a few media appearances on the Danish networks regarding the war, but obviously that's not really helpful for anyone following from abroad.
Just a repait of what stalin did. except stalin also had it in for jews just like hitler but because he was one of the "leader" to defeat him no bad thing is spoken about his verry brutal regime.
@@anderspuck Man, you deserves a Million Abonnements (6.Mai.22) so good
2 years on, and its amazing how accurately you called it. Thanks for sharing your wisdom.
Interessting to see a few years later.
Brilliant analysis, as always.
Very good analysis. And now 6 months later as we're (as Jake Broe might have put it) *_"on day 192 of Russia's disastrous 7 days special limited military operation in Ukraine"_* I think we can conclude that... time is working for the Ukrainians. Russia can't win.
One big failure is that we in the West always think about how Putin can get out of his misery. We should think about how he can loose.
Insightful as always👍
Brilliant explanation - Thanks Anders
A year and five months later and your analysis is eerily prophetic! Putin would very much like to have a time travel device to jump back to Feb 23rd 2022 and cancel his invasion plan.
Julen kommer og alt var praecis analyseret. Pointless war, no end.
Six weeks later, and he looks prophetic. Nothing but shelling civilians and slow paced Russian advances in the east, slow Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv. This is going to last at least until Christmas, and possibly years.
We (Ukrainians) just need enough guns to make some new progress.
And now 6 months later as we're (as Jake Broe might put it) *_"on day 192 of Russia's disastrous 7 days special limited military operation in Ukraine"_* time is working *for Ukraine,* against Russia, and Putin can neither win or find a way out.
Hi Anders, thank you for your thoughts of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. This "situation" is mostly if not 100% caused by a single, in my mind, mad person. In my mind there is another option for the outcome if this crisis, which is to have Putin removed someway or the other. How do you think this will change the aftermath of this war, and the future relationship between not only Ukraine but also the rest of the world an Russia?
Great analytics 😏🇺🇦
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Unfortunately, time has proven your videos to be correct, 26 Oct 2022. I just found your channel, and I am now watching your earlier content. Hit the like button, as it helps the algorithm
Two years later and the algorithm is pushing this video. He called it, first it was 500kg bombs, then 1000kg bombs and now 1500kg bombs, ever more fearsome weapons.
God video 👍😀
Hej Anders
Lige lidt spørgsmål.
- Når Rusland er fokuseret på Ukraine, hvad sker der så i lande, som Rusland støtter? Mali, Syrien etc. Hvis ja, hvornår vil vi se en forandring der?
- En lang strakt krig er hverken i Ruslands?, Ukraines eller Europas? Hvis det er rigtigt, så er der et ønske om en aftale, der kan få krigen til at stoppe. Hvordan kan sådan en løsning se ud?
- Hvad vil der ske, hvis Rusland bruger giftgas eller noget andet tosset?
Looks pretty amazing now. Anders for UN ?
I don't get it, is this analysis free? If I were Zelenskyj I would pay any sum, and even more if I were Putin
It has been an interesting exercise viewing your videos in reverse order as of May 2022. I would be interested if you could resistivit the humanitarian aspect of this conflict, as I see it as being the only 'victory' Russia has achieved. I would like to hear your views how this is differing from Syrian humanitarian crisis, borders, brexit, etc.
July 26 2022 and still going nowhere for Russia
November 22 and the only direction Rusia is going it's backward
It's terrifying to rewatch these predictions and see how deterministically this war has spiraled down into the abyss and keeps going with no end in sight. As if it's an unavoidable fate of humanity.
Still there
Ukraine is getting high tech equipment now. Russia will suffer a huge defeat.
Sadly, probably true.
🦃
Anders, when you speak of Russias political goals, don't you incorporate the security component, stating that Ukraine must be NATO neutral? Also, do you plan to do a reflexive video on the Russian invasion strategy?
Yes, I agree that Russia can reduce their political goals to something achievable, and neutrality could be a kind of compromise. But it's very far from the ambitions that Putin has expressed and his view on the unique bond between Russia and Ukraine. Demilitarization is a ridiculous idea and Russia won't achieve that - especially after demonstrating so clearly why Ukraine needs a strong military. And the demanded security guarantees from NATO are totally off the table by now.
Regarding the video on the invasion strategy, that is a good idea, but there are still many unknowns. So I'll probably save it for later. 😊
@@anderspuck On the other hand (when I try to reuse your superb style) war is usually entered with more overshot expectations - as most powerful decisions usualy do. We will see which ones are possible... That's the obvious risk of every entrepreneur, and soldier, too.
So maybe it would be worth trying to offer Putin more of his goals like "no bases in post-Communist bloc" which is presentable as Win in his homeland power-club.
It is worth considering he has no other choice to withstand his home resistance against him and his fellow men - just to present some big win.
Of course it should be presented like Reagan or Kennedy in 1962 so it could leave also maneuvring possibilities for our side.
Otherwise it would render not acceptable for NATO and feared East bloc countries, especially for Ukrainians. And we know they could be very persuasive in keeping Resistance for ages. Like Ukrainian Insurgents Army 1927-54 against 3 bigger Powers surrounding them - even without leader Stepan Bandera.
So for example: No bases in East-bloc countries except Border-guarantor Poland and Romania, where bases actually are established = No change.
These bases are quite distant to Russia, already separated with other country. We can offer possibility for Russia to create RADAR + Anti-missile system similar of that NATO Aegis/Thaad in those separation areas - Belarus and Transnistria.
Again this means no change, as Russia already has such systems.
Keeping out of "bases theme" would also weaken the one-third of pro-Russian population in those Post-soviet countries - who sees NATO as the aggressor.
I know there were mostly no bases in those countries for long 20 years, so that fear of NATO is not based on reality, but - it can just be emphasized.
Just an idea to come with something quick... otherwise we can expect opening the 2-nd and 3-rd front = more suffering. And suffering can also increase the resistance in Russian people - against NATO.
On the third hand :-)
We cannot be sure those Russian (presented) goals are reality, usually Russian leaders lie to West and to themselves, too.
Which could be actually advantage - possibility to offer something negotiable in surprisingly different areas.
Like "a chair in NATO general staff negotiations."
Or "accepting the Ruble in international payments".
Or -when 60-80 % of Russians are afraid of Western Liberal democracy something to address this threat.
It’s 2 May today. I do not see how Russia can achieve any political goals at this point. The original goals are unreachable. What intermediate goals are achievable? A land grab? The Ukrainians get a vote on that and Kyiv has made it clear that it will not trade land for peace. As of the last week and a half the west is arming Ukraine with offensive weapons at the same time that Russia is trying to reorganize its forces and grab up as much territory it can in Eastern Ukraine. Expect the Ukrainian counter offensive to occur when Russia has exhausted its own offensive capabilities. If the Ukrainians are successful, they will expel Russia sooner rather than later.
Everyday, Ukraine’s hand at the negotiating table gets stronger and Russia’s hand gets weaker. The Russians might even lose Crimea, although some would say that is going too far.
Anyway, this summer will see whether Ukraine can fight an offensive war and how well the Russian’s can defend their territorial gains. Russia cannot win. if the Ukrainians are successful, we will see Russia lose sooner rather than later. An attritional war against civilians is not going to work against Ukraine.
I agree with Andes that the war is pointless for Russia. Putin has lost his gamble. The war is continuing based on its own moment and according to Russian domestic politics; Putin promised the Russians a victory, and the longer he prolongs the war, the longer he prolongs his own domestic power. It’s hard to imagine Putin clinging to power after Russia loses.
@@MarcosElMalo2 I don't see Russia on the losing side. First, they are the largest in the conflict, the battles are taking place on Ukrainian soil, and they have far more resources than Ukraine. It is not the Russian industry, having been destroyed, but the Ukranian.
Second, their military goals are a means to an end. In order for them to make sense, they need to be measured on the Grand Chessboard; otherwise, they will portray a military defeat.
The Russian war goals are aimed at changing the current security balance, between Russia and the West. So everything going on; the refugee crisis, the special military operation, the coming civil war in western Europe, the animation of millions of Ukranian refugees are options from the geopolitical toolbox.
@@ThePRCommander That Russia has more resources than Ukraine is not really that obvious. Ukraine alone is certainly smaller and weaker, but they are being supplied by a lot of countries with some very deep pockets and the ability to deliver large amounts of weapons. And in terms of manpower its a lot easier for Ukraine to mobilize large numbers of highly motivated citizens, while Russia is already stretched in that area. In essence, Russia is already fighting a proxy war against NATO, with Ukraine supplying the soldiers.
If the war in Ukraine ends, think of all the vlogers and experts who will go out of business and have to get real jobs.
You're wrong and here's why.
Russia can't sustain the losses in equipment they are suffering, even if they can convince their people to keep dying there.
In a normal war this would go for both sides and a stalemate could be reached, but with the west supplying arms after another 3-4 months Russia will be out of reserve equipment and will be either beaten back or forced to concede.
Clearly they know this and that's why we are seeing such rushed offensives, I'm betting they plan on digging in them trying for a cease fire in 1 to 2 months to consolidate their position.
I'm a few dats late, By now, your analyses is outdated. Russia has soundlynlost and won't be able to remain in Ukraine. The question now is what will happen with / to Putin and whatvtheybwill do once their're pushed out. The Cromea remains an issue now, but there is no way Ukrain won't continue.
You got a lot wrong here.
What did he get wrong?
Russia will be forced to leave sooner or later. Current events suggest it will be sooner.
@@MarcosElMalo2 Forced by whom?
@@miguelservetus9534 by Ukraine
@@ihorrybak9455 Hope you are right.
But you presume a sane logical country and leaders. No sane person would invade Ukraine.
Russian needs an out but can’t think of any but withdrawal which Putin won’t readily allow.
Slava Ukraini.