E88: Tesla Model 2 Canceled? Investors Panic!
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- Опубликовано: 18 апр 2024
- Cyber Bulls E88
Compact Car Delayed?
$TSLA Sentiment
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The Bulls:
Herbert Ong @herbertong
Alexandra @TeslaBoomerMama
Jeff @thejefflutz
Xander @R6Alex
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Herbert
Jeff and Alexandra think clearly and communicate clearly. I greatly appreciate their contribution to my assessment of reality. Excellent!
BoomerMomma and Lutz are tops along with Goldberg. THANKS TO ALL.
You have the right to be wrong about FSD deployment Herbert. 😉 (I actually don't have opinion on that yet)
If elons behavior us hurting the stock... he should stop behaving that way and the board should step in
Tesla has the battery tech, the bot, FSD, the energy buisness ect... why do we need elon? Why can't Drew be CEO? Why is tesla stuck with Elon as he dives off a twitter cliff? Tesla has the people and the tech, is it so bad for him to leave? I think not. The teams are there doing the work to change the world NOW
I'm voting no. He's not helping and hasn't for years
Jeff Lutz is smart as hell.
Jeff Lutz has incredible insight. 👏🏾
Yes, indeed. No one else brings his kind of knowledge to the table.
Tesla also does not want to Osborne the Model 3, so its referring more to the robotaxi vs Model 2 which are essentially the same thing/platform.
Osborne Model 3 is nonsense in this case, being able to add FSD to a Model 3 will have the opposite effect.
You could not convert an Osborne Mk1 into a Mk2, with an OTA software update!!!
When do you think Tesla will match demand with supply for $25k compact 2027/28?
Compact pre orders will be insane and unprecedented in the auto industry.
Yes, but keep that a secret!
The manufacturing of the RoboTaxi will be used to ramp up manufacturing. When that works well in Texas is can be duplicared anywhere.
When the capacity is enough to deliver with reasonable wait times, they can turn on production of the Compact car on those.
You got it.
such a 🤡take
@@sender5804 Explain why.
Jeff's experience and rational analysis is wonderful. Thank you.
Here is ChatGPT definition:
The phrase "going balls to the wall" is a colloquial expression originating from aviation and engineering. Its literal meaning comes from the throttle controls of older aircraft, where the throttle levers had spherical knobs on the end, colloquially referred to as "balls." When a pilot pushed the throttle forward, or "to the wall," it meant they were applying maximum power for takeoff or acceleration. So, "going balls to the wall" figuratively means going all out or giving maximum effort.
Also began with steam engine governors, referring to the fully open state.
This is correct. I've never heard this being associated with steam engines.
Maximum Velocity
Aha. Fascinating.
The phrase for steam engines is "Balls out".
Jeff! Amen to having some humility when criticizing management. Nobody on the outside has the full picture and there is a world of difference between making short term tactical decisions versus long term strategy.
When Jeff speaks, the Red Sea parts. 😂
Hahaha! He's the GOAT! 🐐
He’s the Lutz who’s NOT a Putz
he's the only reason i watch these
@@Tom_7979 not the only for me, but close
But Mike Johnson claims to be Moses!
This is my favorite team, two big thumbs up and my video of the week! Thanks.
Whilst Jeff has superb insight....He also really understands people...and his style of oratorical articulation is compelling to listen to. Thank you 👍
Thanks Jeff. No one better lay down more clearly the complexity of the subject.
When Herbert said, “but Dan Ives said…” I nearly choked on my laughter!
Agree with Alexandra. I love driving, but not all the time. Nobody loves driving rush hour, high-speed bumper to bumper, or stop and go traffic. FSD is addictive freedom. My stress level drops to near zero. That is worth a lot. Based on my personal experience, IMHO FSD is a gold mine for Tesla.
Alexandra’s Apple example with the evolution of smart phone is a clear cut description of what we are seeing today!
jeff and alexandra at their best. great vid.
Alexandra really knows how to speak to the retail investor and understands corporate governance better than anyone. There’s a lot of action going on behind her words.
cult members at their best
When Jeff mentioned steam engines, it reminded me of the ancient train steam engines where they have a steam valve governor. It is valve attached to a spinning shaft with 2 cantilever balls attached. It governs the speed of the engine. When the balls fly out to their max. displacement, it sets the max speed of the engine, hence the phrase "Balls to the wall" (releases steam pressure at max rpm so the engine doesn't break). I am no spinning balls expert, so maybe someone that is more knowledgeable can comment.
Edit: I think what Elon is saying is... pedal to the metal time, but we are not going to break the engine doing this.
“Makes as much sense as anything else”
We have an expression in cycling “Going Balls Out”. . . the more cultured, refined, restrained might say “Eyeballs Out”.
At any rate, it, and “Balls to the Wall” tells me there is NOTHING being held back.
I totally agreed with Jeff and Alexander: we are on in the position of Elon/Tesla, how can you critisize him without having all the information/context?
Robotaxi is software. Model 2 is the hardware. It isn't cancelled. People thinking it is will help avoid the osborning of Model 3/Y.
You are wonderful Herbert, thank you for these videos
Thoughtful insight and well presented on both sides, the Highlander.😊 PS kindness is always free.❤
Well done, clarity is important and it appeared the earlier messaging seemed to imply that the low cost car is gone and that's utter m nonsense for the reasons I started yesterday but a few more are the fact the low cost model is actually ideal just from a size perspective in many old & third world cities with narrow roads. These vastly dominate the wide modern roads of Western highway & city networks.
A model 3 got us close but it's not compact enough, the reason you'll want discrete ownership is much greater in these cities which are unlikely to have Tesla build robotaxi depots to manage the fleet locally to expensive, better to offload management to the owners. A non-centralized deployment model as well actually will provide some benefits in terms of availability of the robo taxis as if they are discreetly owned. Their ownership is going to be more likely to be distributed throughout the city or town. Meaning that a call for a vehicle at any given point in the town is going to have a high probability of being proximal to a vehicle which is either at an owner's residence and waiting for a call or it's on some road in transit in the vicinity of an owner's location and so what you'll get is the ability for near immediate dispatch to any given point in the city. Whereas if you have a centralized Depot, it's more likely that the bulk of the vehicles will be at or near the Depot as opposed to highly distributed across the city as that would be more efficient.. It's also possible that this inefficiency could be mitigated against by deploying vehicles to specific locations in the city and then have them park to await being called by a customer in fact where they park can be predicted based on past call history of the aggregate customer base.
But I digress. Yes, there will be a dedicated robotaxi and yes there will be a version of that same vehicle with pedals and a wheel which will be much more efficiently distributed into third world and Old world cities of where they have an advantage in terms of minimize cost of management as compared to fleet ownership.
Jeff Lutz you're a legend
I'd like Elon to talk about 4680 and who's managing it, with some reassuring, on the Q1 call.
I like driving my M3P and I don’t want to give that thrill up. Then for long trips I wouldn’t mind letting my Tesla take over while I sit back and enjoy the scenery. Both pleasures need to coexist.
I think that just because he announced the Taxi in no way means it's the only reveal. Which draws more attention; A car that can "Uber" itself or a $25k appliance? Your think the market would know better. You'd also think trimming unnecessary fat would be a good sign to the market.
Balls to the wall is a maritime expression. Each engine has a throttle that the pilot pushes forward or backwards, depending on how he wants each prop to operate. Each throttle has a large “pool ball” on the top of the throttle to make it easy to maneuver them. Balls to the wall means push all engines to full throttle which is forward and against the wall of the bridge.
Brilliant discussion as always thank you
Two funny pairs of glasses + Herbert 😂
Flexibility and modular design comes always at a cost. Hi scale of limited product range is always the most cost effective option.
@Alexandra, where on the Tesla web site can I find the Proxi paper extract you were talking about?
google it is easiest.
Reuters: "Model 2 is canceled".
Elon: "Reuters is lying"
What else do we need?
I dont believe Elon.
@@Jaraizer Does he actually lie? I know he makes wild nonsensical predictions, but I'm not sure he ever said something red was green.
@@Jaraizer Lot's of markets where they have very few cars, poorer parts of Europe, South America, parts of Asia, Africa. They need a cheaper car to collect the driving data in those regions. So even he's going for robotaxi, they still need cars before they switch in those regions.
@@Tony-cj6jy i completely agree. But i also think Elon has a history of making insane decisions that don’t make business sense..like buying twitter.
@@TheLKStar’funding secured’ was a lie that Elon admitted to under oath. The SEC sanctioned him for it - unlawful stock manipulation.
Love Alexandra's glasses!
Always enjoy these two guests!
Question for Jeff: any relation to Bob Lutz?
It's just like when Amazon said it was going to start selling everything and become a Cloud provider. Wallstreet didn't have numbers in their spreadsheets for that so they discounted it.
Oooopsie!
What is the business model for robotaxi? What is the subscription income related to battery storage? What is the take rate improvement for FSD with the trial period, with the new lower price?
i just got off the phone with schwab account and nothing has been released to them yet. they did say i will get an email when it opens up and they walk me through the way that i would be-able to vote
Really good discussions. It's important to develop your own thoughts and understand things. Too many just read something or hear something and believe it.
Tesla BOOM Mama 45:58
I heard something on an X podcast that the number of model Y's in the inventory (used?) Has fallen by 50%. My guess is that Tesl has started pulling model Y's that have ended their lease and are converting these model Y's into robotaxi's available for immediate release to cities all over. Prob a partnership will be announced with a few cities (San Fran, Vegas etc).
Let's stay on the lookout for used Model Y's stacking up leading up to the robotaxi reveal. Vegas is my guess.
Question: So Tesla is building a huge inventory of quicksilver Model Ys in Austin. That's interesting considering that they don't offer that color in the US, and you still can't order one in that color even now.. Is it possible that they are creating a fleet to be used as robotaxis?
Alexandra is so right about arrogant people.
Most important decision in general for Tesla will be how to deal with the tsunami of FUD that will be triggered by the release of Robotaxi.
The cybertruck has “steer by wire” which would the only difference between a gen2 and a robotaxi! No need for a steering column in either case so the manufacturering differences are minimal.
Hi Herbert, greetings from the U.K. At the moment Tesla does not have a factory to make the Model 2, from my understanding, there is no capacity at Berlin, Texas or Fremont. I think Model 2 will happen, it will be on a 48v LV platform, it will have a unique production method, it will most likely have LFMP HV battery technology. All these are cutting edge technologies. In Therani time, the Model Y continues to be the best selling car here in Europe, and will likely be updated (like Model 3) later this year. Tesla has lots to be doing, it has the best engineers,it has cash in the bank.
Consumer teslas would need a camera suite that is taller and more forward than on B pillars to be robotaxis Herbert is right.... Its going to be a new platform (with a major camera suite modification)
Great Channel and content IMO how are you feeling now Tesla HQ is crushing the value of the company as measured by the share price?
“Real Time” adjustments to build… Fantastic.
Herbert, I think that Tesla will rollout the Robotaxi service city-by-city where most of the vehicles will the new Tesla-owned next generation 2-seater Robotaxi vehicle, but I think that they will also allow Tesla owner vehicles - Model 3/Y/X/S and perhaps CybrTrk, based on the customer’s needs - single passenger ride, two or more passengers, need for more space - hauling lots of groceries, luggage, furniture, equipment, or customers going on a long trip and need the a longer range vehicle.
Fear levels are high right now. I'm trying to add to my positions during these times. But your show keeps me calm without getting too "excited". Is it as simple as buy the fear? Stay strong.
One question is why 8/8 when the next gen platform robotaxi manufacturing won’t be ready by late 2025? Will it be like what Apple does by announcing early so App developers can start getting on board developing apps for the new platform?
2024:08:08 @ 08:08 hours Shanghai time) for Model 8.
How about start producing test vehicles applicable to both Compact and robo taxes. Maybe this year.
All of this wonderful innovation and flexibility is offset by limited options and interiors for consumers. BTW, related to that deafness is the piling up of gray cars with black interiors at the service center in my area in the desert. Bring on the price cuts for the consumers lacking preferences.
But if Model 2 is not coming out in 2025 and starts being delivered to customers in 2026 it will hugely impact the growth story and the value of the stock.
If they do not show of any complete cars on 8/8 it will also hugely impact the stock.
Large traders want to see cars and projections to be able to do accurate valuations. Without any of that the stock value will plummet.
We all know wall street is valuing Tesla as a car and growth company, not a tech or robotaxi company. It will take years for the value to reach 4-500$.
Great chat guys, thanks
It’s hard to think from first principles. Most people think that based on Model 3, Y, cybertruck that the time between different vehicles means 2 to 3 year gap. Instead if Tesla builds a new platform, like Jeff said, that should change the gap between the intro of new cars. But since it’s never been done before, people struggle in wrapping their heads around that.
I was always under impression that purpose built taxi body should be very different from a car somebody buys for personal use. Like London's black cab is great design for a taxi, but it's not that great of a personal car. Only the drive train and the battery could be shared between taxi and a car.
Agree! I don't want my personal car to be confused with a taxi!
But if RoboTaxi is here, I probable won't have my own car, so the issue is moot for me personally.
Mass market vehicle becomes the manufacturing income that drives future growth and leads the world toward a sustainable future.
Consider that robotaxi could also contain a product line that uses optimus robots as the driver of any characterized vehicle (the power of intelligent humanized platforms) Makes sense to have a private 5G+ network to run it.
I'm with Herbert on the bet with TBM.
Insurance alone will be a big cost to the owners of Robotaxis, not to mention increased maintenance, cleaning etc. etc. I would not put a car into a taxi pool.
Why Tesla robotaxi is far ahead and they have a moat to for example Apollo or waymo if we don’t even know what kind of sensors it will have? I don’t get it!😮
44:57 Way to go, Mama!
How do I get an invite to investor day?
No one has addressed how regulators would approve a driverless car with a four-foot blind spot of the road in front of its bumper-namely, the Tesla models without USS. Maybe if it never backs into a parking spot or parallel parks?
I think one option is that it gets approved, but then safety regulations are phased in, stating that a driverless car must have full 360-degree awareness and possibly even visibility under the car (as in the case of Cruise, which unknowingly dragged a person 20 feet).
Only the blue states cities need have permits to run FSD vehicles on the road. States like Texas & Florida no permission needed!😊
I guess you have visibility close to the front and back of your car. But under your car? I sincerely doubt that.
Although if someone is thrown at your car, and dissappear there, you should stop!
Even if a cat seek shadow under a car, you don't need visibility there. You just have to remember that the entered and never left.
NHTSA promised to publish their autonomous standards before the end of 2023. They’re late, but details are coming…
The older I get the more I hope to see the Robo taxi sooner rather then later. I am getting to the age where driving at night is difficult, driving in the rain is difficult. and driving period is becoming a chore and I have seen many older people driving that should not be behind the wheel anymore. I am maybe 5 to 10 years away from having to give it up. Bring that robotaxi on, the sooner the better. I think there will be a gigantic market with seniors for that vehicle.
Or even just a very good FSD, we can sit there half blind, with a still valid driver license, and just supervise.
Did Elon ever say he was cancelling the model 2? No. He said it’s scheduled to come out at the end of 2025.
You’re right
Robotaxi and gen 2 are completely different car. Robotaxi is 2 seats and gen 2 is a 4 seater
Herbert, do you think that Drew B and the other Guy that just Quit left so start the 3 yr clock to be board members?
The problem with the new emphasis on robotaxis is that this product is years away. It seems like the next product is going to be the model 2. So, why not tell us when the model 2 will hit the road? What is the cause for the delay in Mexico?
"Balls to the wall" comes from a flyball speed governor. It is going the fastest when the balls are closest to the walls of its containment.
This is a great discussion of Tesla, and Elon, in general, that I decided to save it into my Tesla folder 😁
Long story short Jeff basically said everyone stfu. Nothing is scrapped
You could be quite the publicist… thanks 😂
♥ *Jeff is the anti-insanity pill.*
1:11:11 Elon said that they're not compute 'constrained' - he didn't say they had 'enough' compute. Their need for more compute will rise with the fleet and the amount data being received; OR - it could mean that they are now bandwidth constrained.
You mean that they are now data constrained. Or they were before lowering the price of the FSD subscription.
Anyway, that will speed up the FSD evolvement!
@@larsnystrom6698 yeah - but what I'm really saying is that; it's probably not the end of investment in compute, just because he said they were no longer compute constrained.
Well, Herbert and Co. It kas taken you a week to get the story tracking again.
You shouldn't be surprised that the others, the Reuter story people such as the Deutche Bank, still are off track!
But haven't we trashed that enough now?
I would like to be updated on FSD now at each release. Not only how human-like it drives, and such stories.
I want to know, perhaps in a graphical form, what it can't do yet. With progress and backlashes release by release.
To me it seems as if FSD now can fix item after item, pretty regular and dependently. If that's confirmed, we should soon get a timeline to RoboTaxi ready FSD.
Please address the infrastructure needed to run a fleet and the day to day needs. Hertz and other fleet operators are all ready in the business. Tesla can makes a great percentage for the software side of the business. A piece of every mile driven.
I have a Motorola as well. Great battery.
I had a Motorola in the 1980's, or so.
With an extra thick battery 🙂
@@larsnystrom6698
The battery is just as good as ever. No range anxiety haha. I don't see any reason to get an apple.
Why the long faces?
Jeffs hair is on point today, love it!
Over-the-horizon hair :)
A lot of resources went to cybertruck during the period of industry assumptions of truck buyers insensitive to price hikes.
I think pilot will be current customers... And a fleet From tesla investors. The next gen car will be soon but they r just putting more gas on fsd/robotaxi for now. That's what tesla will be able to differentiate from other EV makers
Elon must clear the confusion on Q1 earning
I don't know, Jeff, perhaps a neon mohawk? Time for a trim regardless.
Just yanking your chain.
Keep on YouTubing, wouldn't be the same without you.
folks, they are timing the next generation platform to match when the next gen workforce (optimus) will be ready which = next generation factory
What was the rumor about a secret plan B about the compact car line if the robo taxi plan fails. Those in the company who didn’t agree with Elon got fired?
You could write for Reuters!
so Jeff believes compact is not delayed
Alexandra believes that its probably delayed but want to brush it under the cover
well from the info leaked I would bet that compact is delayed, lets see whose right
The reason Elon refers to Gen 3 as "RoboTaxi" is because it is the first vehicle configuration (platform) with all the redundancy requirements for safe UNSUPERVISED autonomous use! Models S3XY cannot be used UNSUPERVISED without the steering system first being upgraded as these rely on a single motor and belt drive that is known to fail in operation. This has been addressed with the steer by wire system introduced in CyberTruck which replaces the mechanical linkage with a second electric motor and drive belt thus providing redundancy under system control. Model S3XY could be modified by upgrading the steering system to use the same TWO motor and belt system as CyberTruck however there is a clear cost advantage in simply building dedicated RoboTaxis on the Gen 3 platform and reselling the S3XY's to new owners...
Jeff rocks as always. His knowledge about product manufacturing and scaling is next to none 🦾🦾
@teslaboomermama will pay double for robotaxi vs an uber? Thats just silly
Robotaxi is the way to go.. It's definitely safer, consistent and passengers dnt hv to tire themselves out to get to their destination
There is not fatique, emotions, brain fog, drunkeness etc.. Just consistent driving with 4 pair of consistent eyes and faster brains. It's a no brainer😊
😮
Musk needs to say on the call that Tesla will for sure build the Model 2 along with the Robotaxi. That could stabilize the stock next week!
I sold at -20% better investments elsewhere
Logical and polite question: Who is going to check back seat after every ride if there’s no driver? Without this check EVERY next passenger gonna be surrounded by trash, plastic bottles, napkins, pieces of snacks etc. How this robotaxi model is going to overcome this problem?
inside cameras and designated cleaning garages run by a second company ?
@@donp11 Will a car drive to those garages after every single ride? No cameras going to see or/and detect all of the small pieces of snacks, dirt, spills… how about liquids? Don’t you think?
@@romanlisovoy3098 not sure but possibly with all the AI behind these taxis. Maybe users will be charged for litter left behind ? I am sure they are working on this. Some have suggested these taxis will have easily cleaned interiors maybe even hose able !
@@donp11 I really doubt this. Imagine kids dropping some pieces of snacks or an Ice cream dripping. No way any camera or AI can detect it. No way to charge for littering either. Nothing to do with a hose… unless they gonna do it after each ride. It’s gonna be endless mess. UBER drivers solve those issues in seconds everyday. I don’t see any real way how to address this obstacle without a human being involved. 😅
So Elon lied you re saying?
Cruise and waymo have robotaxis already, so 6 years is a ridiculous timescale.
Tesla will maximize profits so robotaxi is the priority if you have limited production capacity ( a given), a compact will be excess capacity at the beginning. Not that difficult to figure out, ask AI.😊
You guys talk about how crazy it would be to cancel the model two car. It seems like you underestimate his craziness. They had to talk him into doing the car originally he is certainly capable of canceling it.
Maybe if you chant for 3 hours tomorrow the stock will go up.
Dan Ives can “Catch me outside!”🤨⚔️
This isn’t 1912…
This is the Second Industrial Revolution! 😎
It’s ok. Even though I have my iPhone, my household also uses three Motorola phones 😉
for what?
But I want to know how many, when.
if the compact is scrapped altogether that just means robotaxi is a slam dunk and should be bullish. Tesla is not taking that piece off the board until itt leads to the checkmate they are working on.