I agree. I was a seller in 2008. Lost my job. Found another good job. But had to move. Then had to walk away from my mortgage. Now I am on the sidelines and saved up for a new house with pristine credit.
up by 14k in one week after being up 9k, 11k, 7k, and 16k the previous 4 weeks. up 140k from the bottom of this year's trough in february and already 65k higher than the 2023 peak which was in november(!!!). the highest increase for any week in 2023 was about 10k. so inventory growth isn't really slowing! looks like an upward march until sellers get more realistic with their pricing. my guess is at least 750k SFH on the market by october, and that's the point where days on market will start to get truly spooky (with the current surge of new inventory, the ratio of newly listed homes to homes already on the market is high enough to keep the days on market number suppressed, even with very few homes actually being sold) bonus: the number of condos on the market will get to about 200k this year and surpass the prepandemic numbers next year. whoa!
@8:20 ... sorry to point this out but I don't think price appreciation can be deduced from the median sales price. People are just buying less expensive homes in order to be able to buy something.
The funny thing is that people say the interest rates need to come down to boost the housing market, but the fact is, that people with ARMs will be less likely to sell and inventory will stay low. There will just be higher prices/taxes. Not that i wish folks who used an ARM to be forced to lose their homes, just pointing out that its not so clear as realtors whose commissions benefit from high prices make it out to be.
We have two listings on the market here in Kona and both sellers refuse to lower their price..they are waiting it out. Seeing days on market continue growing, and sellers are not budging much on price. 96% list to sales across the board pretty much on the whole island. We draw from the West Coast and we have NOT been getting the phone calls to move here we once saw. We seem to have hit a wall.
I'm seeing overpriced homes making one small reduction, then being pulled from the market, rather than price correctly. Not sure how Altos reflects that.
Completely disagree with the presenters takeaways on nearly every figure but I appreciate reviewing the data. TLDR: inventory continues to accumulate at a rate faster than the market can absorb it which is a win for buyers.
@@ebutuoy5088In a normal employment market, you are correct and I would agree with you. The issue is that if general employment conditions deteriorate, and I believe they will/already are, it wont matter what happens with rates…housing prices will decrease.
Prices are too da.. high! Expecting to get a 50% return in 2 or 3 years ain’t going to happen. When rent is cheaper than purchasing the system is broken.
Sellers are selling more house but less than your predictions and YOU think they are backing off? Maybe you guessed wrong. Your pie in the sky prediction algorithms are at fault because they are trend following and fail to notice shifts.
"Sellers can just wait it out". I think that was very true in 2022, but far less true in 2024. Everyone just can't put off life forever.
I agree. I was a seller in 2008. Lost my job. Found another good job. But had to move. Then had to walk away from my mortgage. Now I am on the sidelines and saved up for a new house with pristine credit.
Lots of pent up supply from putting it off. I’m far less confident that there is as much pent up demand
Given the huge quantity of demand pulled forward in time by low rates in 2021, 2022
Some can wait, and that might just be enough to keep inventory in check. Is not like homes aren't selling.
PEOPLE ARE ALWAYS WAITING TO BUY
up by 14k in one week after being up 9k, 11k, 7k, and 16k the previous 4 weeks. up 140k from the bottom of this year's trough in february and already 65k higher than the 2023 peak which was in november(!!!). the highest increase for any week in 2023 was about 10k. so inventory growth isn't really slowing! looks like an upward march until sellers get more realistic with their pricing. my guess is at least 750k SFH on the market by october, and that's the point where days on market will start to get truly spooky (with the current surge of new inventory, the ratio of newly listed homes to homes already on the market is high enough to keep the days on market number suppressed, even with very few homes actually being sold)
bonus: the number of condos on the market will get to about 200k this year and surpass the prepandemic numbers next year. whoa!
Shh
That doesn’t fit the used house salesmen narrative
A lot of listings expiring already.
@8:20 ... sorry to point this out but I don't think price appreciation can be deduced from the median sales price. People are just buying less expensive homes in order to be able to buy something.
it's actually the opposite. $1 million houses have increased in sales while $500k houses have stayed flat
@@ronno1202 you missed my point completely.
The funny thing is that people say the interest rates need to come down to boost the housing market, but the fact is, that people with ARMs will be less likely to sell and inventory will stay low. There will just be higher prices/taxes.
Not that i wish folks who used an ARM to be forced to lose their homes, just pointing out that its not so clear as realtors whose commissions benefit from high prices make it out to be.
We have two listings on the market here in Kona and both sellers refuse to lower their price..they are waiting it out. Seeing days on market continue growing, and sellers are not budging much on price. 96% list to sales across the board pretty much on the whole island. We draw from the West Coast and we have NOT been getting the phone calls to move here we once saw. We seem to have hit a wall.
I'm seeing overpriced homes making one small reduction, then being pulled from the market, rather than price correctly. Not sure how Altos reflects that.
@@MaddieBr Some sellers may be thinking.."I should get at least what I paid for it! Or what happened to the 2022 market!?"
That's fantastic news, lol. To clarify, I hope you sell and get your commission but only once your clients get realistic.
I am listing on Thursday, after photos are done Wednesday. I'll keep you posted! 1,600 sqft 3 bed/2 bath completely renovated for $210,000 in Ohio.
I wish i can buy something like that for that price here in FL, nasty, ugly, old and way overpriced housing market is the king here
@@verdeyoro People may poopoo Ohio, but I love my low property taxes and slow and steady wins the race real estate market.
@@verdeyoro you should be able to get a nice home on sale in florida in the next couple years! good luck with insurance though :(
Completely disagree with the presenters takeaways on nearly every figure but I appreciate reviewing the data. TLDR: inventory continues to accumulate at a rate faster than the market can absorb it which is a win for buyers.
Does feel like the fed manipulated things and is making it even harder for a mass population of millennials trying to buy their first house.
Its summer and the selling season is just about over…I don’t see the conditions getting better for sellers, either, later in the year.
Yeah, it will. Once rates get cut, it's off to the races for prices.
@@ebutuoy5088In a normal employment market, you are correct and I would agree with you. The issue is that if general employment conditions deteriorate, and I believe they will/already are, it wont matter what happens with rates…housing prices will decrease.
Huh. So in a lot of markets, supply is still lower than prepandemic supply?
For now.
Prices are too da.. high! Expecting to get a 50% return in 2 or 3 years ain’t going to happen. When rent is cheaper than purchasing the system is broken.
Yeah. I'm wondering when these investors are going to realize that they aren't getting any returns.
Know your stop loss..
Sellers are selling more house but less than your predictions and YOU think they are backing off? Maybe you guessed wrong. Your pie in the sky prediction algorithms are at fault because they are trend following and fail to notice shifts.
first!