How does this channel not get more views? So much better than all those pop-finance influencers with pictures of burning houses in the thumbnail background haha
$375K at 3% is the same payment as $240K at 7%. So it looks like home prices need to drop about $125K. Either that or buyers need a 56% raise (I wouldn't hold my breath). Also, rates won't really drop until the Fed is through selling off all of the MBS it bought during the pandemic. That will take years.
You've got it backwards; The Fed holding onto all of its existing MBS is keeping rates from going higher. If they sell their MBS, rates will shoot up even more. So, the Fed is in a conundrum as it relates to 'making housing more affordable' (via buying MBS for lower rates) vs reducing their balance sheet. That is, the Fed would be reducing their balance sheet liabilities by selling MBS, which will result in an increase in the yields (and therefore the mortgage rates) as a result.
@@5harkbyte460 They're not holding onto them. They're currently selling them off at a rate of around $200B/yr. They've been doing that at that rate since September of 2022. And yes, that selling has put upward pressure on mortgage rates. I don't think we can post links on here but look for chart WSHOMCB at the St. Louis Fed. They're currently sitting on $2.2T of mortgages. They increased their holdings by around $1.4T during the pandemic - which is why we had mortgage rates below 3% during the pandemic.
I know I'm figuring in 100-150k drop in most places on top of what has already occured. Seems like most are kinda estimating this to be the amount things need/will drop.
Hi Alto Research, do you have this data breakdown by region? In the Northeast here (northern NJ and southern CT), the properties sales are selling over asking by 5-10%. Multiple offers and waiving inspection. House sale within 7 days - gone. While in Texas it might be slowing but it will help if you can show this data by region.
I don’t see anything moving existing home sales from bouncing along the bottom. I don’t see mortgage rates falling much below 7%, and definitely not below 6.5%. I do see an uptick in listings for two reasons. One, in Northeast, Midwest and Florida because of an aging of long-time homeowners, many of whom have substantial equity and no mortgage. The oldest of the baby boomers are now 78. In 2000, 9.2 million Americans were 80 or over. In 2010, it was 12.9 million. In 2020, it was 20.7 million. Today it is likely over 23 million. Two, higher listings in pandemic boomtowns - for a number of reasons - including high equity for longer term homeowners, falling rents mitigating demand, new construction coming online and a possible outmigration of newer migrants for to overly high living costs. The only way to spur purchases is declining prices, improving affordability. I don’t see a bid decrease, but sellers would be wise to price homes to sell, not sit
The cost to build a home is the problem. No seller will sell their home for 25% less than what it costs to replace that home. Increasing the supply of US currency in the economy is the main cause of high prices.
Home purchases are on ice until home prices are affordable again. Mortgage rates are at historic norms. Price is the outlier. 7-10 yrs worth of demand was pulled forward into ‘21 & ‘22.
Most if not all that is transacting is rich pply buying houses from eachother....hence the median house price sold is up!! No middle /lower class housing price points are transacting BECAUSE THERE ARE NONE!!!!
No they don’t think that way. They are tunnel vision tools that only care about one thing while totally ignoring the fact that the price of the homes are 8-10 times income. It’s the price and I tell them every time
We served meals at the homeless shelter this weekend and I didn’t see any realtors or mortgage brokers in the food line so the market is not that bad. Until we see the worthless non value added realtors and mortgage brokers in the food line, I would say nothing has changed.
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 385K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% annually in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated...
As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $200k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure.. So I really don't blame people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience.
how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach?? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
I'd be curious what percentage of cancelled/expired listings are showing up in inventory.
How does this channel not get more views?
So much better than all those pop-finance influencers with pictures of burning houses in the thumbnail background haha
True. It’s like he’s shadow banned for some reason…
$375K at 3% is the same payment as $240K at 7%. So it looks like home prices need to drop about $125K. Either that or buyers need a 56% raise (I wouldn't hold my breath). Also, rates won't really drop until the Fed is through selling off all of the MBS it bought during the pandemic. That will take years.
correcrt
You've got it backwards; The Fed holding onto all of its existing MBS is keeping rates from going higher. If they sell their MBS, rates will shoot up even more. So, the Fed is in a conundrum as it relates to 'making housing more affordable' (via buying MBS for lower rates) vs reducing their balance sheet. That is, the Fed would be reducing their balance sheet liabilities by selling MBS, which will result in an increase in the yields (and therefore the mortgage rates) as a result.
@@5harkbyte460 They're not holding onto them. They're currently selling them off at a rate of around $200B/yr. They've been doing that at that rate since September of 2022. And yes, that selling has put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
I don't think we can post links on here but look for chart WSHOMCB at the St. Louis Fed. They're currently sitting on $2.2T of mortgages. They increased their holdings by around $1.4T during the pandemic - which is why we had mortgage rates below 3% during the pandemic.
I know I'm figuring in 100-150k drop in most places on top of what has already occured. Seems like most are kinda estimating this to be the amount things need/will drop.
@@5harkbyte460they won’t. Why should they?
Home prices are still like 25% overvalued. Home prices need to come down to reflect current interest rates
Nobody can afford these bubble prices.
All of the cash buyers are gone. The demand isn’t there to support the high prices from 3-4 percent interest rates when the rates are 7 percent
"Home sales are stalled due to high prices."
ummm.. and sky high prices??
Hi Alto Research, do you have this data breakdown by region? In the Northeast here (northern NJ and southern CT), the properties sales are selling over asking by 5-10%. Multiple offers and waiving inspection. House sale within 7 days - gone. While in Texas it might be slowing but it will help if you can show this data by region.
Thanks, Mike!
I don’t see anything moving existing home sales from bouncing along the bottom. I don’t see mortgage rates falling much below 7%, and definitely not below 6.5%.
I do see an uptick in listings for two reasons. One, in Northeast, Midwest and Florida because of an aging of long-time homeowners, many of whom have substantial equity and no mortgage. The oldest of the baby boomers are now 78. In 2000, 9.2 million Americans were 80 or over. In 2010, it was 12.9 million. In 2020, it was 20.7 million. Today it is likely over 23 million.
Two, higher listings in pandemic boomtowns - for a number of reasons - including high equity for longer term homeowners, falling rents mitigating demand, new construction coming online and a possible outmigration of newer migrants for to overly high living costs.
The only way to spur purchases is declining prices, improving affordability. I don’t see a bid decrease, but sellers would be wise to price homes to sell, not sit
New listings up YOY while demand is down YOY. That trend could create a massive growth in inventory if it continues through spring.
Affordable homes from young people isn't a risk
Definitely seeing condos outpace detached units in Sacramento.
The interest rates are not the problem. Wake up realtors!!! Get a cluee
The real estate “experts” are as equally delusional as the so-called “crash bros”
The cost to build a home is the problem. No seller will sell their home for 25% less than what it costs to replace that home. Increasing the supply of US currency in the economy is the main cause of high prices.
@@codyedwards9659 new homes are selling for less than existing homes, which tells you the cost to build is not the problem. it's the bubble prices
It’s the price that’s the problem!!!! Not the interest rates!!!
No
Agreed
Home purchases are on ice until home prices are affordable again. Mortgage rates are at historic norms. Price is the outlier. 7-10 yrs worth of demand was pulled forward into ‘21 & ‘22.
Most if not all that is transacting is rich pply buying houses from eachother....hence the median house price sold is up!! No middle /lower class housing price points are transacting BECAUSE THERE ARE NONE!!!!
How about home sales are stalled BECAUSE PRICES ARE TOO HIGH!!
Its always crashing
Ever think that demand isn't down only because of rates? #demographics
No they don’t think that way. They are tunnel vision tools that only care about one thing while totally ignoring the fact that the price of the homes are 8-10 times income. It’s the price and I tell them every time
Wow clown hacker and his alt accounts are quiet all of a sudden..
We served meals at the homeless shelter this weekend and I didn’t see any realtors or mortgage brokers in the food line so the market is not that bad. Until we see the worthless non value added realtors and mortgage brokers in the food line, I would say nothing has changed.
Crash incoming dominoes starting to fall
Lol.... nope. No crash..... this is not 2008. Owners have way too much equity and there aren't enough houses in the US to keep up with demand.
Lol
Lol
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 385K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% annually in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated...
As a newbie investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $200k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure.. So I really don't blame people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analysing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted on thorough research and years of practical experience.
how would you recommend i enter the crypto market? I am also looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach?? and How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?