Excellent work, Arete. Tango Mike! Who the hell cares about predictions. The 'process' by which you analyze Macro and Fundamentals is priceless. To the haters, I can confirm after working with the most intelligent, educated and talented professionals in the world at JP Morgan, even the PhDs get things wrong. The question is whether the 'process' is repeatable, data gleaned is usable to help generate profit. In my case, the data calms my psyche, gives me confidence in directional bias to stay in profitable trades.
Hi At: Strange week…thought I saw rotation out of mag 7 to mid/small caps. Yes iwm, Banks and homebuilders. Bx bull flag resting at bo level. Adsk bull flag next is 270/7% up Appf bull flag. Thx esp hard work on weekend
Hello AT, thank you mentioning certain stocks to consider. I picked up many of them and almost everything worked and I made really great money last week. I also appreciate your response back regarding Gold and Silver. Look forward to seeing future suggestions.
How do you explain SOXX and how they rallied Friday. It seems that semiconductors did great even though is the best performing sector YTD. Meta had some bad news, MSFTtoo… Mag7 were stable Friday. I don’t think that people are going to move their money where there is no profit. Earnings start this next week, let’s see who has a better P/E ratio… RSI was very high signaling “overbought”, but coming to earnings things continue to look bullish.
Wells funds sold tech. I think there are people like myself that look at ASML earnings TSM earnings coming up and wonder how you can not be in semis. I think there is a lot of confusion right now frankly. I think we are going to see massive volatility in semis. I could do a whole video just on TSM ASML alone.
thank you for going through all the data and discussing the way inflation/deflation impacts profits. It is really helpful, you are teaching us how to make sense out of all the numbers. Its not enough to just know that the numbers are important, you are showing why they are important and how they impact the market!
AT, do you use stop losses on your options trades or manage them live? I have a personal issue with live management, my hope just overtakes the fact that I’m wrong so I need to take that out. Options premiums moving the way they do I’m wondering if there’s a trailer I can set or just a % that you use?
Any opinion on the GDX. I'm definitely an amateur, but it looks like it's breaking out of a 14 year downtrend....however banks and producers are heavily heavily short right now...
I mean the GDX isn't exactly a huge corner of the market...ya gotta think if any of that money that was in semi's starts to rotate in there, it's gonna move.
I think the change in settled funds to being available the very next day is making it easier to get into and out of positions is helping the rallies go higher without pullbacks.
I am tremendously grateful for how generously you are sharing your insight here. I've been wanting to improve my fundamental knowledge in how to view the market especially when the market liquidity overflow into Nasdaq 100 for awhile. I am gaining more confidence how to anticipate my next move. Thank you for the high quality video!
Love your content. I get why the institutions are rotating but I won’t be rotating with them. I think this could be short lived. About 30% of the Russel is non profitable. I get that there are regionals in there but that feels like a short term trade to me rather than one to bet the farm on. Mega cap tech is largely not expensive at the point of use. Meta charges zero for most of its services and content at the consumer level for instance. Netflix is hardly expensive per month given the price of a single cup of coffee these days. If the consumer really is challenged with companies unable to pass through costs as much as they might like I don’t think that mega cap tech is going to where the pain is felt. It’s going to be felt within small not particularly profitable companies. The impact of rate cuts at 25bps will be lagging and likely the weak consumer would itself take down many smaller businesses before the benefit of the rate cuts would actually be felt at the business level. The extent of the rotation last week therefore seems to me completely boneheaded as anything other than a short term trade.
agreed. That is why I think the plays are the sectors I pointed out. I do think META NFLX and team are going no where long term. but its a really crowded trade and we could see selling on any hint of weakness. Not due to the companies themselves but funds wanting to lock in returns. LT it makes them buys.
@@AreteTrading Was going to sell only if we got above 500 on Friday which was basically the 78.6 retracment of the drop of thursday. Never made it. Lets see if the divergence on the RSI/AO on the daily chart plays out
Just joined yesterday and after watching your presentation I am convinced it was the right decision for me. Thank you for helping me to be a better trader
I’ve been looking at Toll bros as well. If the consumer is squeezed, maybe higher end homes will be rocked. Just depends on whether this is a brief pullback or something more severe. Isn’t it strange we saw a pullback on CPI as people are supposed to be traveling and living it up?
I understand that retail sales is gonna determine how strong the consumer is but I’m confused on what the market is looking for more or less retail sales ?
I love how much ive been learning from this channel, but I also have been trying to look up the biggest money players in the market to see what small share they own a ton of that’s cheap so I can start investing allot with little I have now for years to be able to see it jump up to hundreds a share years later I just am not entirely sure which is best I think Sofi from what I’ve seen but im not that experienced
Was happy to have been somewhat make sense of ppi vs cpi before trading day and bought call on LOWES... not the most optimal but at least was correct directionally for once.
Why do they HAVE to cut rates? From my understanding they can do whatever they want. Like you said since October 2023 theyve done nothing but make predictions and have pointless meetings.
Fuel and food ain't going down CPI does not accurately reflect what consumers experience. CPI is not a true measure as you point out. I call this a pint of blueberries variable-it is still on average 5.99/p. 3 years ago was 3.99/p. Right now it is a in and out market. Just need to pick the right horse. Yes agree SLG and VNO. What about data storage center REITS? DLR. Excellent info
Consensus -survey of economists' projections. Meanwhile, their Forecast column is based on their predicting model's calculations. Basically, their Consensus column is a broad market expectation, and their Forecast column is their own prediction.
RTY out performance of QQQ was a 6 STD move. If the title is not catchy the algo will not pick it up. I could just say crash in every video lol. That works too. I have someone creating titles and thumbnails. clickbaity yes so are book covers. Until " this is a really good video watch it " works as a title this is the game lol
You say no one wants people to not have jobs. Thats sadly not true. Plenty of people want a certain percentage of people to not have jobs to keep wages down. And its messed up we have metrics that seemingly demand this.
Your prediction for the CPI was totally wrong. You're good at explaining and analyzing stock market moves after they happen (we all can do that). But you really should acknowledge your deficiencies about predictions. The clickbait titles only exacerbate your issues.
Just a quick question. How many good are have you watched? In my opinion he is one of the best I have found on this platform. You need to watch more than one video. It’s easy to criticize. Try to just learn he has been doing this for years. Or just do what ever you want 😂
I totally agree. I have been following AT for about 6 months now and have become a much better trader because of his channel. Nobody can predict CPI or PPI but they can react to it and AT is one of the best I have seen on RUclips. He understands when and what investors look for at the present time.
PPI came in hotter then expected. CPI was not hotter because consumers can no longer afford it. Hence pricing pressure was way off. The data showed us a lot. and I spent hours researching why and just put it together in this video. Of all the things to take away you choose that lol. I wish you the best with your trading journey. I am not for everyone. Only those that want to develop their craft and get better. If you want predictions there are several channels that can do that. This is not one. Here I give institutional level research to retail for free so that traders can elevate their game. Cramer is on CNBC and has a lot of honking noises and wild predictions that might be what you are looking for.
Still. The finest freeest analysis out there. Thanks
thank you!
So true!
thank you !
Excellent work, Arete. Tango Mike! Who the hell cares about predictions. The 'process' by which you analyze Macro and Fundamentals is priceless. To the haters, I can confirm after working with the most intelligent, educated and talented professionals in the world at JP Morgan, even the PhDs get things wrong. The question is whether the 'process' is repeatable, data gleaned is usable to help generate profit. In my case, the data calms my psyche, gives me confidence in directional bias to stay in profitable trades.
Hi At: Strange week…thought I saw rotation out of mag 7 to mid/small caps. Yes iwm, Banks and homebuilders.
Bx bull flag resting at bo level.
Adsk bull flag next is 270/7% up
Appf bull flag.
Thx esp hard work on weekend
thank you John !
Hello AT, thank you mentioning certain stocks to consider. I picked up many of them and almost everything worked and I made really great money last week. I also appreciate your response back regarding Gold and Silver. Look forward to seeing future suggestions.
glad to hear it Don
How do you explain SOXX and how they rallied Friday.
It seems that semiconductors did great even though is the best performing sector YTD.
Meta had some bad news, MSFTtoo… Mag7 were stable Friday.
I don’t think that people are going to move their money where there is no profit.
Earnings start this next week, let’s see who has a better P/E ratio…
RSI was very high signaling “overbought”, but coming to earnings things continue to look bullish.
Wells funds sold tech. I think there are people like myself that look at ASML earnings TSM earnings coming up and wonder how you can not be in semis. I think there is a lot of confusion right now frankly. I think we are going to see massive volatility in semis. I could do a whole video just on TSM ASML alone.
@@AreteTrading you’re amazing.
Thank you for answering.
I’ll try to subscribe asap!
Lot of mumbles of a stock selloff on tuesday....might wanna be extra vigilant...
Tuesday can be massive
Good Stuff a little primer on Macro/micro econ, back to Econ 102/104,215,302/304
thank you
big money does NOT trade intraday.....
Mr Pickle!
thank you for going through all the data and discussing the way inflation/deflation impacts profits. It is really helpful, you are teaching us how to make sense out of all the numbers. Its not enough to just know that the numbers are important, you are showing why they are important and how they impact the market!
AT, do you use stop losses on your options trades or manage them live? I have a personal issue with live management, my hope just overtakes the fact that I’m wrong so I need to take that out. Options premiums moving the way they do I’m wondering if there’s a trailer I can set or just a % that you use?
AT do you think I should hold my kopn stock til 16-18th when they have a showcase, I got in on it 2 days ago before it popped 16% yesterday.
I think IMHO we’re headed to flatsville until a rate cut.
Any opinion on the GDX. I'm definitely an amateur, but it looks like it's breaking out of a 14 year downtrend....however banks and producers are heavily heavily short right now...
Yes I dont get it. Some say signs of looming correction. Its usually a hedge. Technically I agree with you
@@AreteTrading
Thank you so much. Looks great. I'll be careful.
I mean the GDX isn't exactly a huge corner of the market...ya gotta think if any of that money that was in semi's starts to rotate in there, it's gonna move.
I think the change in settled funds to being available the very next day is making it easier to get into and out of positions is helping the rallies go higher without pullbacks.
valid point
so happy to see your channel taking off. well deserved -
Thank you!
I am tremendously grateful for how generously you are sharing your insight here. I've been wanting to improve my fundamental knowledge in how to view the market especially when the market liquidity overflow into Nasdaq 100 for awhile. I am gaining more confidence how to anticipate my next move. Thank you for the high quality video!
Going with dpst
seems logical and straightforward and does have anything to do w the consumer
I hope you still have DPST, what a trade, nice video, thanks!
YOUR WORK IS INDEED ARETE!!! CHEERS BROTHER
Love your content. I get why the institutions are rotating but I won’t be rotating with them. I think this could be short lived. About 30% of the Russel is non profitable. I get that there are regionals in there but that feels like a short term trade to me rather than one to bet the farm on. Mega cap tech is largely not expensive at the point of use. Meta charges zero for most of its services and content at the consumer level for instance. Netflix is hardly expensive per month given the price of a single cup of coffee these days. If the consumer really is challenged with companies unable to pass through costs as much as they might like I don’t think that mega cap tech is going to where the pain is felt. It’s going to be felt within small not particularly profitable companies. The impact of rate cuts at 25bps will be lagging and likely the weak consumer would itself take down many smaller businesses before the benefit of the rate cuts would actually be felt at the business level. The extent of the rotation last week therefore seems to me completely boneheaded as anything other than a short term trade.
agreed. That is why I think the plays are the sectors I pointed out. I do think META NFLX and team are going no where long term. but its a really crowded trade and we could see selling on any hint of weakness. Not due to the companies themselves but funds wanting to lock in returns. LT it makes them buys.
I agree
Still holding long puts in the Q's... Timber
I am not sure you are wrong
@@AreteTrading Was going to sell only if we got above 500 on Friday which was basically the 78.6 retracment of the drop of thursday. Never made it. Lets see if the divergence on the RSI/AO on the daily chart plays out
Just joined yesterday and after watching your presentation I am convinced it was the right decision for me. Thank you for helping me to be a better trader
HI Sam welcome aboard !
I’ve been looking at Toll bros as well. If the consumer is squeezed, maybe higher end homes will be rocked. Just depends on whether this is a brief pullback or something more severe. Isn’t it strange we saw a pullback on CPI as people are supposed to be traveling and living it up?
I understand that retail sales is gonna determine how strong the consumer is but I’m confused on what the market is looking for more or less retail sales ?
I love how much ive been learning from this channel, but I also have been trying to look up the biggest money players in the market to see what small share they own a ton of that’s cheap so I can start investing allot with little I have now for years to be able to see it jump up to hundreds a share years later I just am not entirely sure which is best I think Sofi from what I’ve seen but im not that experienced
Thank you for sharing all your research!
welcome Bama !
Thanks again!! Great summary of the factors at play.
Was happy to have been somewhat make sense of ppi vs cpi before trading day and bought call on LOWES... not the most optimal but at least was correct directionally for once.
Thank you! 👍
You're welcome!
Dear Arete Trading it's so difficult to ser your drawings in your chart in black 😔
Why do they HAVE to cut rates? From my understanding they can do whatever they want. Like you said since October 2023 theyve done nothing but make predictions and have pointless meetings.
Thanks for the video
I think they take big steps because being obvious benefits the financial world.
The younger gen just wants u to tell them to buy calls or puts …. They want u to give them the fish & not teach them to fish 🎣
Boomer …
lol not all of them
GenX here. I agree.
DPST chart was 7/11/224, not 7/12 as you labeled it, , I was wondering why my candles were different when I compared your notes ☺🤭🤣
Ive been watching since February 2023... AT is my dawg... shout out boomer.. even though im 41😂😂😂
Boomers rule! I am 48 lol
So what you are saying is that powell yapping on monday won't do squat for the market.
buy TNA?
Fuel and food ain't going down CPI does not accurately reflect what consumers experience. CPI is not a true measure as you point out. I call this a pint of blueberries variable-it is still on average 5.99/p. 3 years ago was 3.99/p. Right now it is a in and out market. Just need to pick the right horse. Yes agree SLG and VNO. What about data storage center REITS? DLR. Excellent info
EQIX agreed. I think the issue is how much is packed into them already
@@AreteTrading Both EQUIX and DLR are expanding. Vantage is another one but don't think they are listed.
@Arete trading Based, thank you
Next squeeze: AVPT👀🚀
The dude loves click bait headlines
No the algo does
Loss of jobs is starting. My wife lost her job this week. My friend lost his job in June.
sorry to hear that. I think its just starting
what's the difference between the "consensus" and "forecast" on trading economics?
Consensus -survey of economists' projections. Meanwhile, their Forecast column is based on their predicting model's calculations.
Basically, their Consensus column is a broad market expectation, and their Forecast column is their own prediction.
I love the drama, "something you have not seen for twenty years!"
They need drama to get the clicks!
RTY out performance of QQQ was a 6 STD move. If the title is not catchy the algo will not pick it up. I could just say crash in every video lol. That works too. I have someone creating titles and thumbnails. clickbaity yes so are book covers. Until " this is a really good video watch it " works as a title this is the game lol
@@AreteTrading I get it, play the game so you can stay in it.
it be a lor easier to say " here is saturdays video . It is good"
@@AreteTradinghuh! Is that why Ron walker and some other RUclipsrs always use that word even though they might be bullish? Too funny
PLUG contracts 180 days out
I still got an ad just fyi
Boeing 777 tail drag this week…what a disaster they have been.
Lyv worth a look bull flag
Chtr stage 2 moving up
You say no one wants people to not have jobs. Thats sadly not true. Plenty of people want a certain percentage of people to not have jobs to keep wages down. And its messed up we have metrics that seemingly demand this.
this was also in 2000 and 2007 ok
You are one smart dude
Iwm 248 at least
How could labor weaken with all the migrants flooding in looking for work? Much of a factor is that I wonder thanks
Your prediction for the CPI was totally wrong. You're good at explaining and analyzing stock market moves after they happen (we all can do that). But you really should acknowledge your deficiencies about predictions. The clickbait titles only exacerbate your issues.
Just a quick question. How many good are have you watched? In my opinion he is one of the best I have found on this platform. You need to watch more than one video. It’s easy to criticize. Try to just learn he has been doing this for years. Or just do what ever you want 😂
I totally agree. I have been following AT for about 6 months now and have become a much better trader because of his channel. Nobody can predict CPI or PPI but they can react to it and AT is one of the best I have seen on RUclips. He understands when and what investors look for at the present time.
PPI came in hotter then expected. CPI was not hotter because consumers can no longer afford it. Hence pricing pressure was way off. The data showed us a lot. and I spent hours researching why and just put it together in this video. Of all the things to take away you choose that lol. I wish you the best with your trading journey. I am not for everyone. Only those that want to develop their craft and get better. If you want predictions there are several channels that can do that. This is not one. Here I give institutional level research to retail for free so that traders can elevate their game. Cramer is on CNBC and has a lot of honking noises and wild predictions that might be what you are looking for.
Glad to hear it Don congrats on your hard work and success.
Its almost as if you can be right 100% of the time with stock predictions 🙄😅