Under 2.5 Goals Trading [RECOVERY] Strategy - The Double Down
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- Опубликовано: 13 сен 2024
- Trading Under 2.5 Goals on Betfair is a strategy many love and also that many love to hate. Can this "double down" approach be profitable?
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Trading the Under 2.5 Goals market on Betfair is one of the most popular ways to trade football.
However, many traders experience problems if they get caught out by a goal when they are in the market and they wonder what to do next.
In this video we explain a method of trying to recover or limit the losses you can incur when getting hit by an early goal.
Can this work? Watch now to see it all in action.
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This involves using a strategy we are calling the "Double Down" strategy.
I show you some REAL LIFE examples of how this strategy works recorded on the Betfair Exchange.
In this video you will see:
1 - The strategy described step by step
2 - Real Life Demonstrations Of The Strategy
3 - And the TRUTH about this approach!
Watch to the end to see it all!
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The content in this video is for entertainment purposes only.
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perfect strategy to lose all money in a very fast way
Take a loss is more valuable than chasing losses on psychological and financial terms. Reducing a loss is before open a position when select matches, not after. Thanks for the video.
football trading, so hard for me, horse racing in play much easier if you know what to look for, hats off to you guys who trade the football
Seems pointless moving to U3.5 when just keeping the U2.5 position open will recover loss, assuming no further goal.
I ain't never seen you lose that much wonga Ben in a video and you done a kin lot of them, Hats off to ya for showing that with your own hard earned and that's a strategy and people use that kin ell!
The price drops the fastest at the beginning, then slows down the more the game proceeds. The opposite is also true for overs. Overs price starts slow, then gradually goes up.
If you notice the odds of the 2.5 goals market in the Portuguese game wete LOWER than what Ben matched at pre kick off.
So it's more worthwhile to NOT cash out as soon as the early goal comes and just ride out the 2.5 goals bet for longer. You can even still make a profit like he would have at HT.
1.86 at kick off to 1.70 at HT with just one goal being scored.
So the key is picking games that you don't expect to a lot of goals and if the goal comes, be brave and ride it out. Scratch it or even just take a smaller loss.
Alex ONG covered this in a video 2 months ago except main difference is he starts at U 3.5 goals and moves to U 4.5 if a goal falls early on. The price rise is faster this way and even if a second goals falls in first half you can still get a portion of money back. And always make sure to choose a game that is 1.6 or higher for U 3.5 otherwise the price won't rise fast enough
I can run a test of that in a future video but I highly doubt any goal market is moving "faster" than the other, its been proven they all move at the same speed in proportion to their price. Have you tried it much yourself?
Qu.- how often does a team score in the first 5/10mins…? Obviously depends on league/ country/ who v’s who /etc. but is there an average? Ie once every 5 games, for instance, and if it’s 10% make and the loss is 50% then maybe it’s worth doing if the occurrence of 2 goals is slimmer… so you don’t blow your profit out the water
Holaa!! Un saludo muy cordial desde Medellín - Colombia. Muchas gracias por el buen contenido que aportas bro. Tus videos son de muchísima enseñanza para las personas que aspiramos a vivir del trading deportivo. Sigue con ese contenido y Dios te compensara bro. Un abrazo!!
A shot of whiskey 😂🤣 love it!
The first loss is the best loss. I some cases it might be an idea to back the the team that has scored to win, do your homework well before kickoff and never panic. The whiskey is optional.
What about wait for quick goal then under 3.5 goals. Minimal odd 1.6 and let it run for 10% profit. If 2th goal Will come cash out under 3.5 and bet under 4.5
So I thought I'd give the under 2.5 goals a go having watched this video. Not much going on in the football world today, so I thought I'd have a go at the Celta Vigo v Cadiz match, two average teams at best with nothing much about them. BOOM five minutes in and Celta score! FFS!!! I'm absolutely shit at this, took my loss and I've decided never to trade or bet again, to the extent I've deleted anything to do with it!
Ben, I hope you continue to work your magic and good luck to everyone else, but no matter what I try and what research I do, it always backfires. Yeah there's always another match, but that's the problem for me it's another opportunity to lose money. I'm out for good!
Sorry to hear that Andy, although not sure why you wanted to give it a go after watching this video. Hardly a good advert for the strategy!
@@SportsTradingLife it's not you or the strategy Ben, I saw that match ended 4-0 to Celta! Not that the result had anything to do with the attempted trade. I'm a big fan of your channel and we've exchanged emails and comments in the past. I've tried all sorts of strategies and try to put in to practice what you and others are trying to teach, I just feel that the universe is telling me that maybe I should find something else. As Einstein said, the definition of madness is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
@@Shandinho Did u quit only after a few losses ?
You do realize you should always risk only 1 point right ? :) (out of 100)
@@temp911Luke after a series of losses. I've been giving various strategies a go over the last 3-4 years. Nothing sticks, win some lose more. Can't be arsed any more!
@@Shandinho Take a break from it and feel free to reach out to me in the future if you want to get back involved.
SUrely you would be better off just letting your U2.5 bet run as the odds will reduce wuicker on this market than on the U3.5???
You are correct, if I had more time I wanted to demonstrate that also. Basically you just leave your same stake in the 2.5 and let it run down.
There would be a couple of things to consider. Did the favourite or the underdog score first? You get teams like West Ham who rarely win when they are the underdogs and score first. If the 2nd fav scores first this usually wakes up the fav and they instantly respond by going for an equaliser putting the 2nd fav under pressure. Also it is more common for goals to be scored in the later part of the first half.
I did a variation of this waiting for a goal to be scored. If the fav scored early on I would back as the price peaks and you can be in and out quicker on under 2.5 market as the price rides down quicker from the peak. If the underdog scored first I would lay them in the match odds market. May be better to move on and increase stakes to recover. I use x2 of the original stake to recover I never go higher as I don't like chasing losses.
Had some fun with my team Villa when they last played Wham. Layed Wham when they got the first early goal. Layed them again when it went 2-1. Couldn't believe it when 2nd Villa goal went to var and was disallowed in 91st min. Fortunately I had locked in profit as soon as goal was scored.
Perhaps some profiling of how teams react after a goal can help? Some might defend the lead and keep it tight and they could be good for this sort of thing.
@@SportsTradingLife Sure Ben. I remember when Tevez was at West Ham and they were at Arsenal. He scored and West Ham defended the goal Arsenal just couldn't score that day. I was born in Brum but now live in London most of my mates are West ham. Had I been born in London I would be West ham
Chasing losses and poor risk-reward ratio...sometimes i tried to lay 0ver 2.5 after an early goal with very small responsability and see the recovery is much faster; not my fav strat anyway, better to accept the loss or wait about ten minutes doing nothing and get out to reduce it
Hi there, was wondering wouldn't it be more informative, if you explained the losses with percentage? Not 70£ loss but XY loss from the stake?
Happy trip with this strategy. I have had yesterday some portugal match where Benfica scored 3 goals in 3 minutes close to each, 4 in total for first half and also another one for this strategy was from Italy Bologna v Roma 1 - 5 all scored in first half.
Saw the Roma match, 6 goals in the first half, ZERO in the second half. Football can be crazy sometimes!
@@SportsTradingLife I’ve had some success using this type of strategy but it’s very dependent on the opportunity and the “value” each individual trader see’s in the market.
Generally my approach is to review my filters at HT and if I see what I consider to be value in an unders market, then I’ll back the unders and place a lay trade to match for a free bet later in the game as the price decays.
If this lay trade is matched I let the free bet run to FT, or trade out at a guaranteed green if I’m not convinced it’ll hold out.
If not then I look to take the “double down” approach on the next unders market. The price will only show value if the first goal of the second half comes quite early, if not then the free bet is likely to be matched.
But it really depends on the game, live pictures, gut instinct, filters in place and the traders concept of value and risk. Some opportunities are worth double the risk in the moment...
Sports Trading Life and costly..
This is literally gambling/chasing losses and will not end well, take your loss and move on!
or it is like an insurance strategy?
Yep, didn't end well for me as you could see 😂
@@SportsTradingLife I kind of got excited this morning as I thought you had a great new strategy but this is still valuable advice!
@@yiannikaldanis76not really, it’s still way too much risk. In the long run better to trade out early with the initial loss. The double down is good when it works but when it doesn’t you’re really just gambling
@@admathieson sorry to disappoint but sometimes knowing what to avoid is just as important!
Which is the best streaming service online that provides fast live pictures. For all the major football leagues ?
betfair
Your videos are costing me a fortune in whisky.
Not for me. Double risk
This strategy look interesting, i think this would work if try reduce your lost but dont go at haft time more like under 30 minute
If you've profiled a game as having U2.5 goals then surely you would look to take more than 10% ?
Depends on your tolerance to risk, if you've profiled the match t be under it's likely that the price will reflect that and be too low to be worth trading in the first place.
If trading Under 2.5 you are looking for a slow start. There could still be 3 goals after you get out of the market but to a trader that doesn't matter.
So Sir you suggest to take our loss on the under 2.5 and quite!
But doing so what kind of risk reward we used to work?! i mean usually we won 10 -20% on that strategy..and when we have an early goal..how we lose in terms of % ?
I think is something about 70% of your stake, that's a Brazilian channel that's talks about this
So a goal is scored so you trade out and then go in on u3.5 and then another goal is scored a few minutes later.....a bigger loss than you would have incurred just leaving the first loss.....hmmm
Yes pretty much, seems the best approach would be to stay in the market with the original stake if you were trying to limit losses.
why not just place a safety bet in the time of goals market and stake the goal in the 1st 10 mins to offset the loss if a goal comes in the 1st 10 minutes,you would still be taking a loss but it would be less if you placed an insurance stake on the goal in 1st 10 mins market.
But then your profit would also be less, so in this case you should just stake less?
Just going through the videos. Gone from coffee to beer to whiskey :/
I'm here for the excuse to grab a shot of whiskey!
I think I needed it after trying this strategy out!
@@SportsTradingLife Whiskey too early for me I will have a Gingerbread Latte. Interesting content again, Ben. I have put this in my one to avoid list. Will you be doing more videos like the trailing Stop loss from a couple years back, saw that one recently and transformed things for me personally
This is asking for losing. These strategies never work. You have to win 2x for every loss. Basically. Lets say on a larger scale and long term you placed 1500 bets using this strategy. You have to have at least 1000 bets good to be in profit. Strategies where you have to chase your losses are always doomed to fail. With this information and based off statistics you're just basically limiting your losses in return to have an even bigger loss when the markets goes against you. You can have bad luck and have 3 games out of hundred which doesn't go your way with a lot of goals early that could take a large portion out of your bank roll.
Personally I am not a fan of this scalping strategy anyways without the double down. You're always chasing the 10% return for 40% risk. 3 losses in a row means you need a 120% winning streak to break even or be a little in profit.
Better match selection would help seems to me you just choose random games
Like celtic vs standard certificate was 1.4 to win standard 7 it had goals all over it
For this demonstration I did ALL the Europa league games at once. Then used the double down on those that had an early goal. All the rest made a profit inside 5-10 minutes.
If you have any ideas on how to find good matches for this strategy then do share them and we can try that in another video.
Okay I get it now I just thought you chose those games but I now understand great video BTW I watch all your videos just was abit worried about the match selections but now you have explained I get it
@sports trading life
@@chloebostock3745 Thanks Chloe, yes keep in mind lots of these free videos are just to demonstrate the method. If it is to demonstrate the match selection I will definitely highlight that.
Probably be better off chucking 50 quid on red
Tried this plenty of times and always gone bust! Avoid people
Doesn’t work🙈learned this before lockdown to the tune of £500 on a Celta Vigo game. Celta last 12 games were all 1-0 or 0-0 so surely there shouldn’t have been a goal fest??😂 4 fast first half goals turned me over and one in the 2nd half🙈 live and learn people👍
Indeed. That is a BIG problem for recovery strategies, eventually a goal fest will arrive when you least expect it and it can potentially wipe out all previous profits and more.
@@SportsTradingLife after the first goal, I went in on the 3.5’s and repeated with the next goal bracket after each goal trying to take the full bet.(when you’re chasing you’re now gambling and hoping, with all thought process out the window and blinkers on😔) thought I was billy big balls after a good week on fireball reloaded so tried something new but refused to believe I was wrong about not many goals in the game. Silly mistake on reflection and a mistake I won’t make again. Didn’t hurt as much as maybe as it could have with it all being profit but still stung non the less. The single lesson I needed to realise there’s a million and one other trades out there with ample opportunity to get back on track.....don’t fixate take the loss and get out👍
Celta Vigo at it again today it seems!
@@SportsTradingLife 😂😂😂ironic. Pretty much a carbon copy, I think they played alaves at home but I haven’t touched Celta Vigo since that day😂😂.....a little like watching jaws for the first time👍
Hi bro I need Betfair verify id can you provide it I am from Pakistan
I pay for it...
i'm happy to place your bets for you. PM me here.
Done 😀
i would consider using this to reduce losses.
Be sure to see the downsides in my real life examples before you try it.
Congratulations on a great video! 🤫 I know where you can get more than 78 free spins.Best choice.
Even though the machine can’t payout more than they won. Shouldn’t they receive the max amount the machine allows?
Crazy strategy to lose all
Red
Rubbish, if you keep your bet on u2.5 goals you will be in green at half time if no goals. You can see odds on Portugal game. Backed at 1.8ish at start and at HT it is dropped to 1.7ish. If second goal is scored get bigger loss but, if you backed u3.5 you get loss as well, so no point in this strategy!
Exactly, if I had more time I wanted to demonstrate that too.
If you want to lose ya money just drink whisky while gambling 😂😂
Always liked your videos but this is so pointless 🤷🏼♂️
The point is to stop people losing money trying it out.
get half back &get out :)