Vlad's main channel ruclips.net/user/VladVexlervideos Support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
As Josiah Wedgewood said during the Norway debate (which brought down Chamberlain's government): 'It is for that reason that I hope we shall get on that Bench a Government which can take this war seriously instead of being prepared to go on in the old style and thinking this is a replica of 1914. We are living in a new world and this is a new war, the end of which may be the utter destruction of the British people.' The similarities with 1940 are shocking...
That was a remarkable talk for this reason: It was one of the shortest in time span but most momentous in content. What a concise statement of the existential pickle we humans have put ourselves in. As you say, we would really like to be able to stop dealing with this all of the time forever, but like freedom, we can't set it and forget it. We really have bitten the forbidden fruit. We can be children no more.
It’s extremely natural to think that the world today is the same as it was 25 years ago, esp. as that world felt more enchanting and intelligible, for all its faults!
Yes, a very muted sense of relief is appropriate, not jubilation. A couple of days ago Jake Broe showed a video of the interior of a Russian civilian bus converted into a drone operation centre. I'm sure the Russians are going to complicate matters by increasingly embedding legitimate military targets within civilian areas - the more densely populated the better for their purpose of making the Ukrainians look as if they're breaking their commitment. Sorry to see you looking unwell, Vad. Hope you feel better soon.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2uIf you want to talk about “breaking commitments,” look at the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which Russia, the US, the UK , and later China and France signed promising security assurances if Ukraine gave up their nukes (3rd largest stockpile at the time). What happened to those security assurances? This has been a death knell for nuclear nonproliferation.
Or shrink and grow at the whim of political advisors to the Commander in Chief. The loss of a Russian child near a staging area could change everything overnight.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican nobody in Russia gives a slightest damn about any loss. It is happening in Belgorod for at least half a year now, most people are actively ignoring it
Russia murders tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and the "loss of a Russian child" means we can't let Ukraine defend itself? Thank you for the laugh Russian bot boy!
Vlad, as always you see the big picture. Yes, we are in a new normal. The world of 1990 to 2020 has gone and is not coming back, although a return to that at some point still seems to be an underlying assumption of some Western leaders. Best wishes for your health
This "allowing" is bloody useless. If Ukraine cannot use ATACMS over the border, it's not changing anything. More dead in Kharkiv oblast that could be prevented. Thank you, Vlad, for taking the time to talk to us even though you seem to have one of the worse days. Please, take good care of yourself, instead of making videos. All the best to your health. Lots of love and listen to you once you have recovered. 🤗
I can’t get past the seemingly ineluctable conclusion that as soon as “we” give into nuclear blackmail - that is a bad actor threatening the use of nuclear weapons not in response to an existential threat to the state or population, but to the possibility of strategic failure and thus perhaps the personal downfall of leaders - it means that a wide spectrum nuclear arsenal over which each state has independent control is a requirement for any form of sovereignty. Proliferation would be rife, and Israel is a decent indicator of the threshold at which it would become essential. That would be an extremely unstable world.
There's quite a few items that fit into the category of our "disco days are done" that should be addressed. A return of the "Reagan Republican" would be one of those, which is funny since his mischaracterization of the public sector is one of the reasons we are where we are. Sure there could be a better future 30 or 40 years out, but it's going to take work and dedication. Similar to anthropomorphic climate change, even if we "solve" the problem tomorrow there will be decades of residual impacts to work through. Vlad, I really think this is an important area of public discussion that needs more attention. 👍🏼
Agreed that the decision on Ukraine being able to defend Kharkiv by using weapons against sites on Russian soil is not in the least active. It is not designed to push Ukraine's defence forward. Rather, it is an attempt to balance the front. Until decisions are made to act in a decisive and forward-looking manner, we are victims of nuclear blackmail whether we think we are on not. I hope you are resting and recovering as well as thinking.
I had just posted a comment on another video that pretty much reflects what you're saying here. It's pretty clear that the US, particularly Blinkin are chewing mouthfuls of cereal at the same time they speak policy. The obfuscation, plausible denial ability, and long winded deliveries in speeches are frustrating.
Blinken is giving the filtered version of what is beginning to change, but showing the caution that the US administration has because of the nuclear escalation threat. It seems like, after reading the Politico article, Biden may now be the more hesitant member of the administration, Sullivan with Austin and the Joint Chiefs appears more forward thinking, and Antony Blinken is the proponent of expanding acceptable targets for long range munitions. They don't know what to do partly because we're charting new territory, partly because they can't fully understand Putin's mind, and the risks of either Putin escalating or falling from power and a power grab erupting have them timid about acting decisively towards giving the go ahead.
I firmly believe that we cannot let a nuclear state blackmail us. We need to do what is in our best interests. If we let every little tyrant threaten us, then every little tyrant will want nuclear weapons. Eventually, we will either have nuclear war or we will have to concede to their demands. Of course every little tyrant can see this and will want nuclear weapons. 😒
Nuclear proliferation seems to be a serious possibility going forward, and for good reasons. Russia's blackmail would have been met quite differently if Ukraine had a working nuclear arsenal as well. I'm hoping there are a number of countries where considerations are being made behind closed doors whether to develop their own arsenal, since the expertise and capabilities are there, the threats from bad actors are real and the looming possibility of the US not supporting their allies in the future has become a realistic factor. Personally, at this point in history I would actually feel safer if I knew my country had nuclear strike capabilities if I was living in places like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Finland or Sweden (to name a few countries that would have the expertise and the economic capabilities) Occupation by Russia or China is just not an option, period. And yeah, I'm aware there would be a few downsides, to say it mildly, but I'd rather face those than roaming Russian Totenkopf squads under occupation. France, for example, understood this after their experiences during WW2 which is why they developed more independent defense and nuclear capabilities soon thereafter.
I don’t understand the confusion. The response to nuclear blackmail needs to be nuclear counter blackmail. Brinkmanship and Mutually Assured Destruction. It worked throughout the Cold War, why would it not work now? Why are there no American nuclear missiles stationed in the Baltics and Poland? The current American weakness is frightening.
This sets a bad precedent for more micromanagement by political types concerned about things like elections and keeping their jobs. These are not bold people. "You can use your gear, AFTER breakfast on Saturday, when the news cycle slows down, in the following zones. Any other use may affect future shipments."
Be well Vlad ❤️. Yes, we are reactive but gaining confidence, and we don't know how to react to the nuclear blackmail threat. You're right, North Korea will copy this, China might, and Iran will as well if they have the capability. I feel like a piece of laundry in a washing machine right now, not sure what to say or do. I'm still a bit disappointed with Biden, heartened by Blinken, and unsure of Sullivan and his team, but hopefully they will fear less the chameleon and analyze more the character of what Putin has become. You are a lighthouse in the fog, your advice and analysis are of great valuable to me. 🕯️ 🕊️
Thank you for the video. I largely agree with everything you said. However, despite it all, I want to celebrate because this will save Ukrainian lives and keep innocent people safe. Yes, this should have been done sooner and this good news is a symptom of our failure to address the Muscovian threat, but I want to enjoy the good news whilst not "gameifying" the conflict as you would say.
Although plans for a response to a nuclear attack by Russia have been developed for decades, maybe the unique scenario of Ukraine had not been considered. With Kiev assuming their risk should Putin use the Bomb, it could have taken the Pentagon time to come up with a detailed response. And then let the Kremlin know of Russia's exposure to an American reaction. Soldiers don't like war, Russian generals less so.
IMHO right now, I would love Macron to ask some questions publicly... Towards multiple sides. Something like "Well, guys, what exactly are we doing right now? So that everyone knows."
Been watching from nearly the start of the channel and appreciate what you do. I find myself torn between thinking it's amateur hour in the White House (although I do believe a Trump administration would have made things far worse) and that things are being said differently behind the scenes and there is some kind of plan. I do believe the West has to be cautious but hope that the statement allowing strikes across the border in Kharkiv is balanced by a scolding for hitting certain targets. In the end though the West should have put it's arms manufacturers a war footing over a year ago and didn't and it has cost Ukraine massively in lives and destruction from indiscriminant missile attacks on civilian infrastructure. In the end Russia isn't in any danger of invasion and you would think that unless this was to become likely the case you'd not expect Russia to escalate massively by using nuclear weapons and so the West shouldn't change course.
I agree. As dissapointing as the Biden admin has been we can console ourselves with the knowledge that a Trump administration would be immeasurably worse. Soviet Studies was an actual college major in the 80's. Is there no one with that degree on Biden's staff? Seem not.
Enjoyed your insights and mental stimulation over the recent years, hoping for many more years in a similar vein (ideally with new subject matter due to a victory for Ukraine and a trial for the deranged leader of Russia).
Really helpful analysis of how we are not treating nuclear blackmail seriously nor responding to in a systematic and conscious way. I see it as part of the general pattern in the West and in particular US policy to not recognise how we repeatedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory since the Korean War. Also agree that the decision to allow some use of US weapons on Russian soil was a forced rather ad hoc decision. Hope you feel better.
New chapters of history are always met with denial that things have changed. Even where that is not quite so, we are always in denial of how the key bad parts have changed. These things take time, because politicians, even more than humans in general, are almost always reactive animals. That is to say our leaders become our leaders only to the extent they have learned how not to lead from positions of authority and leadership.
Yeah, what response to a state should they make to this?, i think sanctions on any state that makes such threats combined with hybrid warfare such as cyber and conventional weapons to disable any nuclear facilities/systems of detection, etc, ( this seems to be the path Ukraine is taking already, leading the west in that regard with the bombing of the nuclear warning radar )
Vlad, I'm not sure I'd agree with your view that the Putin doesn't know how the West would respond if Russia uses a nuke in this war. He might not know *for definite* (because only in the aftermath of any nuke usage could he know that), and obviously I don't know, but I'd imagine that behind the scenes Putin's regime - along with China - has been told by NATO *exactly* what will happen in the event of each type of Russian nuke usage. For example, if they explode a nuke for 'demonstration' purposes over some totally uninhabited area of sea near to Ukraine, then they might have been told that the entire Black Sea fleet will be sunk within hours and the Kerch bridge utterly destroyed. Or, if they used a tactical nuke on Ukraine, then they might have been told all Russian forces, vehicles, aircraft, weapon systems (etc) in Ukraine (including Crimea) will be destroyed, along with the Black Sea Fleet. Putin might of course see such private ultimatums as a bluff he's willing to call, but I'd be very surprised if he doesn't know exactly what the West has said it would do.
That’s a very important question you raise! But, if you listen to the video, I talk about responding to nuclear blackmail not to nuclear use. 💛 Ps. On the question you raise, Putin’s view is that the West’s response would be weaker in 2030 than in 2024.
@@VladVexlerChat Yes, but IF Putin has already been told privately what the West's response will be to any *actual* use of nukes, it's not clear to me (a) why any further response to Russia's veiled 'blackmail' threats is needed; and (b) what the effect of this 'blackmail' is supposed to be other than to puff-up the regime's importance in the eyes of the Russian people ... or perhaps also to try and deter weapon supplies from the leadership in those NATO countries (if any) that haven't been told exactly what's been communicated privately to Putin.
Ivo H. Daalder, who otherwise is somewhat pessimistic about the prospects, particularly when it comes to the United States, states that Putin really doesn't have a nuclear option because that would get him into trouble with China. By extension, nuclear blackmail only becomes dangerous if you give into the blackmail, which is what the White House has been doing too much already.
which states have openly expressed nuclear blackmail as of late? Russia and North Korea, sure, but would you say India and Pakistan threatening each other also counts?
A few weeks ago on this channel i gave my unprofessional analysis to this. Where is said "Mirrored Defense" would need western allowance for Ukraine to strike into Russia proper. At this point i have gotten quite good in predicting certain stuff weeks ahead. Im proud on myselv as i dont have the proper educational background, yet my track record in predicting certain "big game" policy is astonishing to myselv. Yet its utterly and compleatly useless knowledge to me. I wish i wasnt that ignorant in my teens. Threw away everything for nihilism, takes me till today to recouver.
About nuclear blackmail and responses thereto. Unless I am mistaken, North Korea started the nuclear blackmail strategy. No one responded adequately to that. Not USA, South Korea, China, Japan. Who knows. Maybe Putin picked up on that. The West but again also China and this time India as well are still bumbling on this issue. We can also see why Iran is desperate to build a bomb.
I certainly expect that we will face nuclear blackmail repeatedly. But I don't think it's absolutely inevitable. I think it depends on how we respond this time. If we pursue a boil-the-frog approach, all the way to Russia's unconditional surrender, follow it up with a Marshall Plan for Russia and its erstwhile vassal states, and engage constructively with China on how to move toward a nuclear-free world, I think we could have this be the definitive and final test of nuclear blackmail, so that no one ever tries it again. It's not 90-10. It's not even a hundred-to-one long shot. But maybe a thousand-to-one. And I think that if we could get past our democratic* dysfunction long enough to do this, the odds would be better than 90-10. And I think there's a reasonable chance that an extraordinary convergence of statesmanship and activism, if such were to happen, could be enough to get good policy on one issue despite our general political incapacity. *I still don't believe in democracy. I think that the various aspects of good government are lumped together as one thing by the use of the term here are in fact disparate aspects united only by the fact that they're conducive to good government. And I think that the use of the term here is gratingly at odds with its uses in civics class and political rhetoric, which in turn don't mesh well with each other. But I'm using the word, because in this context it's clear and concise.
Well wishes for your health as ever Vlad! I feel our culture has become dominated by nostalgia, for understanding ourselves only by lessons learned with the benefit of hindsight. We can learn a methodology from the politics of the past but, the circumstances are new. How do we overcome our desire for Lincolns and Churchills?
Re: nuclear blackmail. Nuclear armed states will only resort to first-use of nuclear weapons if they perceive a net benefit to doing so. Similarly, a nuclear armed state sill always resort to first-use nuclear weapons if they perceive net benefit in doing so. Therefore, only mad persons will employ them. That leaves Iran and North Korea to worry about.
Thank you for pointing out the ongoing issue of "restrictions" which is not being well covered imo. Unfortuntately there are no guarantees that can be cashed in within world geo-politics, or even the comfort of knowing that somehow someway human existence must drive toward a greater good/end purpose, unless one posits a sort of "divine outside benevolent force" so to speak, which pretty quickly burders society with another set of mental problems to wrestle with via relgiious/philosphical ultimate claims, and yet somewhow we will collectively push through the fog of our fragile existence to arrive who knows where, but onward we shall go into the unknown as did so many generations before us.
Thank you Vlad and sending healing energy to you 💚💚💚 Responding versus Reaction has controlled the minds of many for eons and when every human goes within and seeks out their own Inner Peace and live there we will have no need for wars, hate, blackmail, control, reactions, lack or greed but we all have to do the Inner Work first to find this place of Peace, our own inner Power and we all have this in us. We could all live in this peace and joy without the fear and darkness that hold other people to ransom but it takes everyone to live in their own Inner Peace and Share the Worlds Resources Fairly to meet the needs of all of Humanity, Shine your light over the darkness 🎇
Yes, it's a psychological approach to reduce run-away escalation, this is escalation in ant-sized steps. On one hand it is "appeasement-light" on the other hand it is "boiling the frog", the frog is Russia but that doesn't mean that 'we' are not sitting right next to the frog.
To be able to deal with the nuclear blackmail one must be able to project the will, skill and preparedness to take on a nuclear hit. Difficult to get there when the Western societies are unable to even openly discuss about it.
Good point. The best is to have in place methods to knock down the missiles, which I gather we haven't a method for doing yet. The strategic defense initiative was aimed at doing this in the 1980's, but we dropped the program after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was too outlandish, relying on X-ray lasers and atomic bomb blasts in space to power the lasers, but a more practical version could be workable, perhaps missiles located in space which could take out ICBM's, sub launched missiles, and so forth.
I think we/you will have to address the inherent instability of coalition politics as well, this "who makes the first step game" among European countries, is quite a bad configuration for security questions, and the US clearly does not want to take the leadership role it played in the cold war, however it is quite clear to me that no European country would be accepted in a similar position, let alone be able to stop those stepping out of line.
The EU is an experiment in federating states with interests more disparate than the states in the U.S. We already see some members playing delaying games.
Regarding the nuclear blackmail issue: The policy should be: 1) We will give Ukraine whatever they ask for in terms of conventional armaments as long as they accept the fact that we (NATO or any nuclear NATO power) will not get in a shooting war with Russia as a result of Russia nuking Ukraine. What I like about that solution is that it gives the Ukrainians agency. And as for threats against NATO countries, well, that is no different from what has been the case ever since Russia gained the means to lob ICBM's from Russian territory onto Western countries.
Doesn't that immediately give several non-European allies of the US motivation to develop their own nuclear weapons? Taiwan, South Korea, Japan all come to mind as potential targets of nuclear blackmail by established nuclear states that are restrained from having their own weapons because they are covered by the US nuclear umbrella.
@@mikebarushok5361 It doesn't because, unlike the countries you mention, Ukraine does not enjoy, and has not enjoyed, the same level of protection (a.k.a. nuclear umbrella) via formal agreements.
Vlad's main channel
ruclips.net/user/VladVexlervideos
Support Vlad's work on Patreon!
www.patreon.com/vladvexler
Support Vlad via PayPal
www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
Best wishes for your health ❤ Thanks for taking the time to post a video
Thank you so so much!
Take care of your health. Best wishes from Germany. We need you.
From 🇨🇦
Like a pain in the butt.
As Josiah Wedgewood said during the Norway debate (which brought down Chamberlain's government): 'It is for that reason that I hope we shall get on that Bench a Government which can take this war seriously instead of being prepared to go on in the old style and thinking this is a replica of 1914. We are living in a new world and this is a new war, the end of which may be the utter destruction of the British people.' The similarities with 1940 are shocking...
Thank you for your engagement with the world. It is a positive force which is valuable, and appreciated.
Thank you so much!
Ditto. Sending love and health vibrations from California.🌴🏄♀🌞☀
That was a remarkable talk for this reason: It was one of the shortest in time span but most momentous in content. What a concise statement of the existential pickle we humans have put ourselves in. As you say, we would really like to be able to stop dealing with this all of the time forever, but like freedom, we can't set it and forget it. We really have bitten the forbidden fruit. We can be children no more.
It’s extremely natural to think that the world today is the same as it was 25 years ago, esp. as that world felt more enchanting and intelligible, for all its faults!
@@VladVexlerChat I love your videos mate I hope you get well soon bro take care of yourself stay strong 💪 👍
@@DanHart10 thank you so much!
Dear Vlad. Thank you so much! God bless you.
Sorry, my English is not so good.
Best Greetings from Bern, Switzerland
Hi Vlad
Good to hear from you.
Hope you feel better soon.
Yes, a very muted sense of relief is appropriate, not jubilation. A couple of days ago Jake Broe showed a video of the interior of a Russian civilian bus converted into a drone operation centre. I'm sure the Russians are going to complicate matters by increasingly embedding legitimate military targets within civilian areas - the more densely populated the better for their purpose of making the Ukrainians look as if they're breaking their commitment.
Sorry to see you looking unwell, Vad. Hope you feel better soon.
Ukrainians breaking their obligations? As if this is something new, it was from the Minsk agreements.
No, Russia is what it is, a terrorist state and Russia continues to confirm this.
Source European parliament
Don't engage it ⬆️, downvote & ignore
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2uIf you want to talk about “breaking commitments,” look at the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which Russia, the US, the UK , and later China and France signed promising security assurances if Ukraine gave up their nukes (3rd largest stockpile at the time). What happened to those security assurances? This has been a death knell for nuclear nonproliferation.
The "partial" permission will get LARGER AND LARGER over time.
Or shrink and grow at the whim of political advisors to the Commander in Chief. The loss of a Russian child near a staging area could change everything overnight.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican They will explain to you that this is all propaganda and Mosfilm, as they say about Palestine.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican nobody in Russia gives a slightest damn about any loss. It is happening in Belgorod for at least half a year now, most people are actively ignoring it
@@AstroGremlinAmerican 🤣🤣😅😁😅🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Russia murders tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and the "loss of a Russian child" means we can't let Ukraine defend itself? Thank you for the laugh Russian bot boy!
You hit the nail right on the head here!!!
Vlad, as always you see the big picture. Yes, we are in a new normal. The world of 1990 to 2020 has gone and is not coming back, although a return to that at some point still seems to be an underlying assumption of some Western leaders. Best wishes for your health
This "allowing" is bloody useless. If Ukraine cannot use ATACMS over the border, it's not changing anything. More dead in Kharkiv oblast that could be prevented. Thank you, Vlad, for taking the time to talk to us even though you seem to have one of the worse days. Please, take good care of yourself, instead of making videos. All the best to your health. Lots of love and listen to you once you have recovered. 🤗
I can’t get past the seemingly ineluctable conclusion that as soon as “we” give into nuclear blackmail - that is a bad actor threatening the use of nuclear weapons not in response to an existential threat to the state or population, but to the possibility of strategic failure and thus perhaps the personal downfall of leaders - it means that a wide spectrum nuclear arsenal over which each state has independent control is a requirement for any form of sovereignty. Proliferation would be rife, and Israel is a decent indicator of the threshold at which it would become essential. That would be an extremely unstable world.
I notice that no one is threatening Israel, though.
A nuclear arsenal is more like handcuffs if. its not a deterrent.
NATO needs to take the initiative by forcing Russia to be concerned about what NATO may do instead of being consumed with what Russia may do.
The Tzars last roll of the dice has failed.
I think he will resort to launching missiles from behind the border now.
There's quite a few items that fit into the category of our "disco days are done" that should be addressed. A return of the "Reagan Republican" would be one of those, which is funny since his mischaracterization of the public sector is one of the reasons we are where we are. Sure there could be a better future 30 or 40 years out, but it's going to take work and dedication. Similar to anthropomorphic climate change, even if we "solve" the problem tomorrow there will be decades of residual impacts to work through.
Vlad, I really think this is an important area of public discussion that needs more attention. 👍🏼
You are very loved mate. Keep going, we need you. ❤️
💛 thanks so much!!!
❤Ukrainian ❤
rest up!
Thanks so much dear Rachel.
Agreed that the decision on Ukraine being able to defend Kharkiv by using weapons against sites on Russian soil is not in the least active. It is not designed to push Ukraine's defence forward. Rather, it is an attempt to balance the front. Until decisions are made to act in a decisive and forward-looking manner, we are victims of nuclear blackmail whether we think we are on not.
I hope you are resting and recovering as well as thinking.
Merci !
Thank YOU!!
I had just posted a comment on another video that pretty much reflects what you're saying here. It's pretty clear that the US, particularly Blinkin are chewing mouthfuls of cereal at the same time they speak policy. The obfuscation, plausible denial ability, and long winded deliveries in speeches are frustrating.
Blinken is giving the filtered version of what is beginning to change, but showing the caution that the US administration has because of the nuclear escalation threat. It seems like, after reading the Politico article, Biden may now be the more hesitant member of the administration, Sullivan with Austin and the Joint Chiefs appears more forward thinking, and Antony Blinken is the proponent of expanding acceptable targets for long range munitions. They don't know what to do partly because we're charting new territory, partly because they can't fully understand Putin's mind, and the risks of either Putin escalating or falling from power and a power grab erupting have them timid about acting decisively towards giving the go ahead.
I firmly believe that we cannot let a nuclear state blackmail us. We need to do what is in our best interests. If we let every little tyrant threaten us, then every little tyrant will want nuclear weapons. Eventually, we will either have nuclear war or we will have to concede to their demands. Of course every little tyrant can see this and will want nuclear weapons. 😒
Nuclear proliferation seems to be a serious possibility going forward, and for good reasons. Russia's blackmail would have been met quite differently if Ukraine had a working nuclear arsenal as well. I'm hoping there are a number of countries where considerations are being made behind closed doors whether to develop their own arsenal, since the expertise and capabilities are there, the threats from bad actors are real and the looming possibility of the US not supporting their allies in the future has become a realistic factor.
Personally, at this point in history I would actually feel safer if I knew my country had nuclear strike capabilities if I was living in places like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Finland or Sweden (to name a few countries that would have the expertise and the economic capabilities)
Occupation by Russia or China is just not an option, period. And yeah, I'm aware there would be a few downsides, to say it mildly, but I'd rather face those than roaming Russian Totenkopf squads under occupation. France, for example, understood this after their experiences during WW2 which is why they developed more independent defense and nuclear capabilities soon thereafter.
Get Well Vlad!
Vlad, please take care of your health first. We won't like it but we'll survive until you're feeling better. Speedy recovery.
Feel better soon!
Thank you very much!
I don’t understand the confusion. The response to nuclear blackmail needs to be nuclear counter blackmail. Brinkmanship and Mutually Assured Destruction. It worked throughout the Cold War, why would it not work now? Why are there no American nuclear missiles stationed in the Baltics and Poland? The current American weakness is frightening.
This sets a bad precedent for more micromanagement by political types concerned about things like elections and keeping their jobs. These are not bold people. "You can use your gear, AFTER breakfast on Saturday, when the news cycle slows down, in the following zones. Any other use may affect future shipments."
Be well Vlad ❤️. Yes, we are reactive but gaining confidence, and we don't know how to react to the nuclear blackmail threat. You're right, North Korea will copy this, China might, and Iran will as well if they have the capability. I feel like a piece of laundry in a washing machine right now, not sure what to say or do. I'm still a bit disappointed with Biden, heartened by Blinken, and unsure of Sullivan and his team, but hopefully they will fear less the chameleon and analyze more the character of what Putin has become. You are a lighthouse in the fog, your advice and analysis are of great valuable to me. 🕯️ 🕊️
When you feel better it would be great with a react to Fink/Kasparov talk. Hope you will get better soon 🌻
Thank you for the video.
I largely agree with everything you said. However, despite it all, I want to celebrate because this will save Ukrainian lives and keep innocent people safe. Yes, this should have been done sooner and this good news is a symptom of our failure to address the Muscovian threat, but I want to enjoy the good news whilst not "gameifying" the conflict as you would say.
Although plans for a response to a nuclear attack by Russia have been developed for decades, maybe the unique scenario of Ukraine had not been considered. With Kiev assuming their risk should Putin use the Bomb, it could have taken the Pentagon time to come up with a detailed response. And then let the Kremlin know of Russia's exposure to an American reaction. Soldiers don't like war, Russian generals less so.
I just want you one thing to know, you are loved. Greetings from Germany
Thank you so so so much.
Wishing you better days as reward for your fortitude.
Thank you.
⛈⛅🌤🌞🌻♥
IMHO right now, I would love Macron to ask some questions publicly... Towards multiple sides. Something like "Well, guys, what exactly are we doing right now? So that everyone knows."
Been watching from nearly the start of the channel and appreciate what you do. I find myself torn between thinking it's amateur hour in the White House (although I do believe a Trump administration would have made things far worse) and that things are being said differently behind the scenes and there is some kind of plan. I do believe the West has to be cautious but hope that the statement allowing strikes across the border in Kharkiv is balanced by a scolding for hitting certain targets.
In the end though the West should have put it's arms manufacturers a war footing over a year ago and didn't and it has cost Ukraine massively in lives and destruction from indiscriminant missile attacks on civilian infrastructure. In the end Russia isn't in any danger of invasion and you would think that unless this was to become likely the case you'd not expect Russia to escalate massively by using nuclear weapons and so the West shouldn't change course.
I agree. As dissapointing as the Biden admin has been we can console ourselves with the knowledge that a Trump administration would be immeasurably worse.
Soviet Studies was an actual college major in the 80's. Is there no one with that degree on Biden's staff? Seem not.
Enjoyed your insights and mental stimulation over the recent years, hoping for many more years in a similar vein (ideally with new subject matter due to a victory for Ukraine and a trial for the deranged leader of Russia).
Really helpful analysis of how we are not treating nuclear blackmail seriously nor responding to in a systematic and conscious way. I see it as part of the general pattern in the West and in particular US policy to not recognise how we repeatedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory since the Korean War. Also agree that the decision to allow some use of US weapons on Russian soil was a forced rather ad hoc decision. Hope you feel better.
New chapters of history are always met with denial that things have changed. Even where that is not quite so, we are always in denial of how the key bad parts have changed. These things take time, because politicians, even more than humans in general, are almost always reactive animals. That is to say our leaders become our leaders only to the extent they have learned how not to lead from positions of authority and leadership.
Yeah, what response to a state should they make to this?, i think sanctions on any state that makes such threats combined with hybrid warfare such as cyber and conventional weapons to disable any nuclear facilities/systems of detection, etc, ( this seems to be the path Ukraine is taking already, leading the west in that regard with the bombing of the nuclear warning radar )
Even partial permission is still permission. The taboo is broken, which makes it vastly easier to break it further later.
Hi Vlad. Who is your favorite comedian?
Equivalent of only studying for an exam after the exam. Good... but not good.
Vlad, I'm not sure I'd agree with your view that the Putin doesn't know how the West would respond if Russia uses a nuke in this war. He might not know *for definite* (because only in the aftermath of any nuke usage could he know that), and obviously I don't know, but I'd imagine that behind the scenes Putin's regime - along with China - has been told by NATO *exactly* what will happen in the event of each type of Russian nuke usage. For example, if they explode a nuke for 'demonstration' purposes over some totally uninhabited area of sea near to Ukraine, then they might have been told that the entire Black Sea fleet will be sunk within hours and the Kerch bridge utterly destroyed. Or, if they used a tactical nuke on Ukraine, then they might have been told all Russian forces, vehicles, aircraft, weapon systems (etc) in Ukraine (including Crimea) will be destroyed, along with the Black Sea Fleet. Putin might of course see such private ultimatums as a bluff he's willing to call, but I'd be very surprised if he doesn't know exactly what the West has said it would do.
That’s a very important question you raise! But, if you listen to the video, I talk about responding to nuclear blackmail not to nuclear use. 💛 Ps. On the question you raise, Putin’s view is that the West’s response would be weaker in 2030 than in 2024.
@@VladVexlerChat Yes, but IF Putin has already been told privately what the West's response will be to any *actual* use of nukes, it's not clear to me (a) why any further response to Russia's veiled 'blackmail' threats is needed; and (b) what the effect of this 'blackmail' is supposed to be other than to puff-up the regime's importance in the eyes of the Russian people ... or perhaps also to try and deter weapon supplies from the leadership in those NATO countries (if any) that haven't been told exactly what's been communicated privately to Putin.
Hope you get better.
Lots of love Vlad, take care. Sincerely, beautiful community.
“…we are now in a new chapter of history….” Truer words were never spoken.
How do deal with a mad man? Not easy, when this guy commands a whole empire of resources blindly.
Rest my well bro. Your health is more important then thinking about solutions and understanding. Live long.....
My favourite camera angle :)
Ivo H. Daalder, who otherwise is somewhat pessimistic about the prospects, particularly when it comes to the United States, states that Putin really doesn't have a nuclear option because that would get him into trouble with China. By extension, nuclear blackmail only becomes dangerous if you give into the blackmail, which is what the White House has been doing too much already.
Yes, the first concession was "No boots on the ground!" unbidden and unilaterally. Any discussion with the Europeans beforehand?
The use of “Mentalist” as a synonym for madman … Was this coined by Alan Partridge?
Yes, in the episode where he is almost kidnapped by the obsessed fan 😂
The twisted brain wrong of a one off man mental.
Yes that is a Norfolk comedy reference! I lived in Norfolk, twice, so I am very familiar with Alan Golden Partridge.
which states have openly expressed nuclear blackmail as of late? Russia and North Korea, sure, but would you say India and Pakistan threatening each other also counts?
Liz Truss, for example, and Sikorsky at the UN.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u the lettuce is still committed to adhering to the terms of nuclear nonproliferation, though, right?
Don't engage it, downvote & ignore
A few weeks ago on this channel i gave my unprofessional analysis to this. Where is said "Mirrored Defense" would need western allowance for Ukraine to strike into Russia proper.
At this point i have gotten quite good in predicting certain stuff weeks ahead.
Im proud on myselv as i dont have the proper educational background, yet my track record in predicting certain "big game" policy is astonishing to myselv.
Yet its utterly and compleatly useless knowledge to me.
I wish i wasnt that ignorant in my teens. Threw away everything for nihilism, takes me till today to recouver.
💙💛
🌻
🧡🌜✨
As usual, you are spot on, Vlad! Get better. We need you.
Wouldn't the fact that we don't know how we're going to respond also be a huge drawback for Russia as well?
Hope you feel better soon Vlad
Thanks for this post!....Now! Take care!!
Thank you so much!!
Hello boootiful commooonity!
Thank you for talking to us tonight Vlad. Take it easy my fellow Londoner. Rest and look after yourself 💗
Thank you so much! Hugs from E2.
Stay strong and never give up
🇬🇧🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🇪🇺
If-It's-BIDEN ... It'll-Be More-Like [A]-TICKLE ... &-If-He Drops-Anything ... It'll-Prob'bly-Be [R]-No-[2]!!!??? >(*U^)< (Joke) *Wink*
100% not proactive (sadly)
Thanks for the update and views 🇺🇲🇺🇦
Oklahoma USA 🇺🇦🇺🇲
Hmmm. But threat-makers always look weak.
Isn't that the point of MAD, though?
There's no real way to accept it, frame it, or adequately respond to it.
Good onya, Vlad and greetings from Oz.
It is almost like a game of "Call My Bluff". No war is like a game though. Will they use them, doubtful, but that is not 100% security.
About nuclear blackmail and responses thereto. Unless I am mistaken, North Korea started the nuclear blackmail strategy. No one responded adequately to that. Not USA, South Korea, China, Japan. Who knows. Maybe Putin picked up on that. The West but again also China and this time India as well are still bumbling on this issue.
We can also see why Iran is desperate to build a bomb.
Thanks!
Thank you!
I certainly expect that we will face nuclear blackmail repeatedly. But I don't think it's absolutely inevitable. I think it depends on how we respond this time. If we pursue a boil-the-frog approach, all the way to Russia's unconditional surrender, follow it up with a Marshall Plan for Russia and its erstwhile vassal states, and engage constructively with China on how to move toward a nuclear-free world, I think we could have this be the definitive and final test of nuclear blackmail, so that no one ever tries it again. It's not 90-10. It's not even a hundred-to-one long shot. But maybe a thousand-to-one. And I think that if we could get past our democratic* dysfunction long enough to do this, the odds would be better than 90-10. And I think there's a reasonable chance that an extraordinary convergence of statesmanship and activism, if such were to happen, could be enough to get good policy on one issue despite our general political incapacity.
*I still don't believe in democracy. I think that the various aspects of good government are lumped together as one thing by the use of the term here are in fact disparate aspects united only by the fact that they're conducive to good government. And I think that the use of the term here is gratingly at odds with its uses in civics class and political rhetoric, which in turn don't mesh well with each other. But I'm using the word, because in this context it's clear and concise.
formidable power move with that video yesterday! I can't imagine recording after sedation; hope everything went ok.
Thank you so much dear you!
I hope you are feeling better my friend.
Doing my best thank you!!
Well wishes for your health as ever Vlad! I feel our culture has become dominated by nostalgia, for understanding ourselves only by lessons learned with the benefit of hindsight. We can learn a methodology from the politics of the past but, the circumstances are new. How do we overcome our desire for Lincolns and Churchills?
Re: nuclear blackmail. Nuclear armed states will only resort to first-use of nuclear weapons if they perceive a net benefit to doing so. Similarly, a nuclear armed state sill always resort to first-use nuclear weapons if they perceive net benefit in doing so. Therefore, only mad persons will employ them. That leaves Iran and North Korea to worry about.
Thank you for pointing out the ongoing issue of "restrictions" which is not being well covered imo.
Unfortuntately there are no guarantees that can be cashed in within world geo-politics, or even the comfort of knowing that somehow someway human existence must drive toward a greater good/end purpose, unless one posits a sort of "divine outside benevolent force" so to speak, which pretty quickly burders society with another set of mental problems to wrestle with via relgiious/philosphical ultimate claims, and yet somewhow we will collectively push through the fog of our fragile existence to arrive who knows where, but onward we shall go into the unknown as did so many generations before us.
Very perceptive observation,Vlad! Keep up the great work. Take care!
Thank you Vlad and sending healing energy to you 💚💚💚 Responding versus Reaction has controlled the minds of many for eons and when every human goes within and seeks out their own Inner Peace and live there we will have no need for wars, hate, blackmail, control, reactions, lack or greed but we all have to do the Inner Work first to find this place of Peace, our own inner Power and we all have this in us. We could all live in this peace and joy without the fear and darkness that hold other people to ransom but it takes everyone to live in their own Inner Peace and Share the Worlds Resources Fairly to meet the needs of all of Humanity, Shine your light over the darkness 🎇
Thank you, Vlad. Please take care of yourself ❤ I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Yes, it's a psychological approach to reduce run-away escalation, this is escalation in ant-sized steps. On one hand it is "appeasement-light" on the other hand it is "boiling the frog", the frog is Russia but that doesn't mean that 'we' are not sitting right next to the frog.
Thank Vlad- from someone also laying in bed but not by preference 😊
get well soon. ❤ your videos...
I've come around to a no fly zone over Ukraine. What do you think about it?
Thank you Vlad for taking time to break down information for us and giving us insight into this brutal war of aggression against Ukraine
One rule we have figured out is how the third position is used to keep conservatives in power.
Always enjoy hearing from you. Sending my wishes for you to be well.❤
Ever see the movie "Failsafe"? One for one is the answer.
To be able to deal with the nuclear blackmail one must be able to project the will, skill and preparedness to take on a nuclear hit. Difficult to get there when the Western societies are unable to even openly discuss about it.
Good point. The best is to have in place methods to knock down the missiles, which I gather we haven't a method for doing yet. The strategic defense initiative was aimed at doing this in the 1980's, but we dropped the program after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was too outlandish, relying on X-ray lasers and atomic bomb blasts in space to power the lasers, but a more practical version could be workable, perhaps missiles located in space which could take out ICBM's, sub launched missiles, and so forth.
I think we/you will have to address the inherent instability of coalition politics as well, this "who makes the first step game" among European countries, is quite a bad configuration for security questions, and the US clearly does not want to take the leadership role it played in the cold war, however it is quite clear to me that no European country would be accepted in a similar position, let alone be able to stop those stepping out of line.
So far, but that might be changing with Macron in France. 🇫🇷🌎
The EU is an experiment in federating states with interests more disparate than the states in the U.S. We already see some members playing delaying games.
Feel better soon !
Thank you
Tks. Stay Safe.
Cda
Regarding the nuclear blackmail issue: The policy should be: 1) We will give Ukraine whatever they ask for in terms of conventional armaments as long as they accept the fact that we (NATO or any nuclear NATO power) will not get in a shooting war with Russia as a result of Russia nuking Ukraine. What I like about that solution is that it gives the Ukrainians agency.
And as for threats against NATO countries, well, that is no different from what has been the case ever since Russia gained the means to lob ICBM's from Russian territory onto Western countries.
Doesn't that immediately give several non-European allies of the US motivation to develop their own nuclear weapons? Taiwan, South Korea, Japan all come to mind as potential targets of nuclear blackmail by established nuclear states that are restrained from having their own weapons because they are covered by the US nuclear umbrella.
@@mikebarushok5361 It doesn't because, unlike the countries you mention, Ukraine does not enjoy, and has not enjoyed, the same level of protection (a.k.a. nuclear umbrella) via formal agreements.
Lots of love to you, Vlad.
Love to you Vlad❤
Spot on Vlad.
It’s the Jake Sullivan show in the White House , he needs to go.
he needed to go then, and he still does now. question is, what's keeping him?
How do you win a game of chicken with comunists?!
don't send them free chicken wings when they are starving?