FINAL 2024 OSCAR Winner Predictions!!! | Featuring Mark Johnson
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- Опубликовано: 7 мар 2024
- The time has FINALLY come. Time to put down those pencils after making our FINAL Oscar predictions predicting in every category. We made sure to rip through the easy ones and really get into the nitty gritty with all the harder to predict categories. And today I'm joined with Oscar pundit, stat lover, and Awards Daily contributor, Mark Johnson!
Mark Johnson Twitter:
MarkLikesMovies
You could check out Mark's work and Oscar breakdowns at the excellent Oscar coverage website: www.awardsdaily.com/
1:24 Best Picture
1:40 Director, Support Actress, Support Actor, Leading Actor
3:04 Leading Actress
11:10 Adapted Screenplay & Original Screenplay
15:40 Production Design
18:00 Costume Design
20:45 Makeup & Hair
23:50 Score, Best Song, Best Sound
26:35 Animated Feature
29:27 Documentary Feature, International Film
30:40 Visual Effects
42:08 Short Films
MY TWITTER:
/ ryan_casselman
MY LETTERBOXD:
letterboxd.com/ryan_casselman/
MY INSTAGRAM:
/ ryan.casselman 
Кино
![ian - Fit Check (Feat. VonOff1700) [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/sDGWDBg45Dw/mqdefault.jpg)
In an effort to rush this video out to you, I made a mistake with the graphics in Best Actress. My apologies to Sandra Húller and Carey Mulligan. And my apologies to anyone who goes through life now thinking Carey Mulligan looks just like Jeffrey Wright because of this video. 🙂
Also, if you’re reading this… I’ve officially changed my prediction for animated short to War is Over. It’s just the safer bet. I’m sticking with everything else 🙂
We all got a laugh out of it, so no harm no foul 😂
After that I really think Carey Mulligan should win Best Actress. Talk about a transformation, she had Jeffrey Wright down to a T!!!
@@DaveNetWorld 😂😂😂
It’s all good! Mistakes happen!!
All is forgiven.
I still can’t wait to see your “Stat stack” video.
That’s one of my favorite series you make.
I’m personally rooting for my top 3 movies of 2023.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Godzilla: Minus One
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
*Also, I really hope the Oscars don’t forget to add Akira Toriyama(creator of the Dragon Ball franchise) to the “in Memoriam “ section.
@@marvintran7813 I don’t know if I’m gonna have time for a full stat stack video this year. ☹️ Especially, knowing that Oppenheimer will be victorious. But I’ll announce at least the results of what the Stat Stack would’ve been in my next video.
I am Japanese and I would like to let you all know that Wim Weders just won Japanese Academy award for the best director for "Perfect Days"
"Godzilla Minus One" Sweeped 8 other categories including the best picture
"Mission: impossible" won the best foreign film
他に日本人おる？
ruclips.net/video/1u82zWDr0ac/видео.html
@@user-mm3mm6qx8fNice Video! Star wars roll!
LOVED Perfect Days!!!! ❤❤❤
Mark really knows his stuff. Thanks for having him on your show Ryan!
Carey looks good
She looks a bit different in that picture
I never knew how much she resembled Jeffery Wright 🤣
Blackface?
I’m rooting for Oppenheimer (I predict 8 Oscars) and Sandra Hüller 🙏🏼
Love seeing Mark on here! Old fan of Awards Circuit Power Hour, new fan of yours.
I still wish emma will win the oscar ❤️
Me, too!
Yeah, such a shame if she loses. 😢
She should. She was better than Lily
@@ReshiramR52 Very true.
Great video! I'm predicting pretty much the same, which I hate! It is a little too predictable this year!
Lily is only in 25% of that movie She should be in supporting category Emma for the win imo.
Um…
Your pictures are off on best actress.
You have Carey Mulligan labeled as Sandra Huller, and you have Jeffrey Wright labeled as Carey Mulligan.
Regardless, I’m rooting for my favorite movie Oppenheimer!! I’m pretty positive it will win too! 😊
Also, I’m still waiting for the Oscar stack video! I love that series!
One final thing, I hope they remember to add Akira Toriyama(creator of the Dragon Ball franchise) to the “In Memoriam” section.
That anime meant soooo much to sooo many people. Michael B Jordan himself said he was a fan of Dragon Ball Z, and some scenes inspired parts of Creed 3.
and the picture is off in Makeup/Hair too - Society of the Snow has the picture for The Zone of Interest!
My top 3 movies of 2023 are
1. Oppenheimer
2. Godzilla: Minus One
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
I’m rooting for those 3 movies!
I agree with most of your picks but I think Henry Sugar in Live action short is a red herring. The things that the academy usually go for in this category - political resonance, tear-jerking emotion, a clear-cut message - aren’t there with Henry Sugar. Red, White, and Blue has everything that the Oscars usually go for in this category. Any other year, it would be the clear winner. I think folks are too focused on Wes Anderson being a big name and not having an Oscar. I predict Wes Anderson to lose
I love Mark Johnson***
Using Letterboxd scores can be tricky. Two Distant Strangers has a 2.9 and still won its Short category.
Wow. You’re right. I needed someone to point this out to me. I might just have to bite the bullet and go for War is Over. Thanks Paul!
@@RyanCasselman I loved 95 Senses too btw and would be happy if it won because it would be awesome for the Napoleon Dynamite filmmakers to win an Oscar. With so many industry players involved with War is Over beyond Sean Lennon & Yoko Ono (Thomas Newman, Weta FX, Director with Disney/Pixar background and those mentioned in the end credits), it was hard for me to bet against.
Your videos are insightful and very enjoyable to watch!
I was clinging on to that Letterbox score too closely thinking to was a reflection of how audiences feel. If I go out on a limb, I need to be very confident. And I'm just not. You're right.
And thanks @@paulhardister6274, I'm glad you like the videos! :)
Hello all... somebody says I got it all wrong, but here is my ballot for Sunday:
1. The Loan of Interest
2. The Holduppers
3. Fall of Anatomy
4. Oppensesame
5. American Science Fiction
6. Past Tense
7. Porn Things
8. Flowers of the Killer Moon
9. Maestro card
10. Barbie-Q
Great stuff Ryan as always. It feels like this year, we all get at least 20 correct. Last year, Costume and Production Design were from left field. Something tells me that Oppy will win Production Design, but I am probably going to say Poor Things.
My only disagree would be on Gladstone's performance being subtle. I don't necessarily buy that narrative. I have seen the film multiple times (absolutely dig the film), and I think her performance is both subtle and loud. When you look at the scenes where she's ill and the scenes where she's grieving the loss of a loved one (no spoilers from me), there's a lot of passion and heartbreak on the screen.
I am going to go with Gladstone as well. I think the Academy likes her narrative. They like her symbolic representation. Plus, you have that High School photo of her winning "Most likely to win an Oscar". My only hesitation is that she didn't get a BAFTA nomination. Since 2000, only Swank and Bullock won Best Actress without a BAFTA nod, and both of their films had screener issues and got 0 BAFTAs. But then again, Melissa Leo, Regina King, and Denzel Washington didn't get BAFTA nominations either and they still won. So I think it is a toss-up between the Stones. Nobody should be surprised if either one wins.
I have been watching Oscar videos basically all week, and when it comes to the best actress race, everything I hear about a possibly Lily Gladstone win is She has the narrative, she just won SAG, she will be the first indigenous person to win an Oscar, She will be the only win in KOTFM, Emma Stone already has an Oscar, Emma stone doesn't need another Oscar, Emma Stone will be so happy if Lily Gladstone wins.......etc etc...and nobody is saying Lily Gladstone will win the Oscar because Lily Gladstone gave a flat-out better performance than Emma Stone. Do you know why? BECAUSE SHE DIDN'T. Because Emma Stone's performance is MILES ABOVE AND BEYOND what Lily Gladstone did. I hope Oscar voters did not have their heads up their asses when marking their ballets and really focused on the quality and skill of the performance because If Lily wins, it will be for all the above things mentioned and not because it was the best performance of the year.
Do not get the sex thing with Poor Things. They were all very brief sex scenes. Much more to it than that.
There was so much fuss about it, I watched it expecting something scandalous and it was... almost tame.
My 2024 Oscars Predictions!
BEST PICTURE - Oppenheimer
BEST DIRECTOR - Christopher Nolan
BEST ACTOR - Cillian Murphy
BEST ACTRESS - Lily Gladstone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Robert Downey Jr
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Da’Vine Joy Randolph
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY- American Fiction
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Anatomy of a Fall
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Oppenheimer
BEST EDITING - Oppenheimer
BEST SONG - “What Was I Made For” Barbie
BEST SCORE - Oppenheimer
BEST SOUND - Oppenheimer
BEST COSTUMES - Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION - Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLES - Maestro
BEST ANIMATION - Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - Godzilla Minus One
BEST INTERNATIONAL - The Zone Of Interest
BEST DOCUMENTARY - 20 Days In Mariupol
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - The Last Repair Shop
BEST ANIMATED SHORT - War Is Over!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Actually we are almost completely the same Ryan, I just went with War Is Over! for Animated Short. I went with Lily based on her SAG win (there was so much enthusiasm from her peers when she won), I think that win tipped the scale in her favor. I too split Costume Design/Production Design. For some reason in Costume Design they like to reward the same designer plus there are so many more costumes on multiple characters in Barbie where as in Poor Things they just center mostly around Emma Stone. Poor Things won both the BAFTA & Guild over Barbie in Production Design so that's why I'm leaning in that direction. As for Visual Effects any of those 3 movies could win & in a category with no consensus or Best Picture nominee I'm going with the best received movie & passion pick in Godzilla Minus One. Good Luck on Sunday Ryan!!! Cheers.
Strangely enough, someone in this comment section convinced me to officially switch animated short. So I believe we align in every category. And I feel pretty good about it based on many of the reasons you’ve mapped out.
@@RyanCasselman Oh boy!!! Then I wish us the best of luck then Ryan. I would rank Ninety-Five Senses as #2 in Animated Short, so, if anything beats War Is Over! then it will be that in my opinion. As for Costume Design/Production Design I think it either splits the way we think it will or Poor Things will win both. Visual Effects is definitely the hardest category to predict outside of Actress and will be either Godzilla Minus One or The Creator. Of course, we have to have some sort of challenge otherwise it would be too easy LOL. I didn't realize until after that the only movie we don't have winning something is Past Lives. They don't typically spread the wealth that much so I hope we're right, fingers crossed!!!
your jobs hang in the balance here... if you're not 100% correct with your Oscars predictions, then you're fired from Awards Daily, Gold Derby, etc.!
No pressure
😂
They already have the wrong actress
Emma woooooon!!!!
If the entire movie of Barbie took place in Barbieland, it should probably win production design, but so much of it took place in LA - that should tip the scales in Poor Things favor (IMO); Billie Eilish will likely win her second Oscar, but I still feel the best Barbie song is Dance the Night - hope Dua Lipa performs at the show!
That’s actually the main reason I have Poor Things winning production on my personal ballot as well
Very very very true.
I agree with this. Who are you predicting for costumes?
John Williams for the win. Justice
I'm predicting a surprise upset in Lead Actress for Jeffrey Wright. No guts no glory.
Am I missing Cinematography?
If we did, Oppenheimer. It would have probably been that short of a convo. 🙂
Yay! Hoytema 🎉
Sandra Hüller is Nr.1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's kind of strange that Lily is considered like a " new comer " , when she's actually two years older than Emma ...
But she’s been in movies for less long than emma
Guess so .@@kashoot4782
Emma started earlier than Lily. Emma quit high school to pursue acting, but Lily finished college. Also, as an Indigenous American, it was tougher for Lily to get work because filmmakers typically write stories for white people (i.e. Emma could be cast as a half Native Hawaiian in 'Aloha' while someone full Indigenous like Lily could not), so Lily had less opportunity than Emma, hence Lily being a "newcomer" compared to Emma. Less name recognition because later start and less opportunity.
@@cozyranger333she’s not full indigenous, her mother is white😂
I understand the point of Bella’s character, but her “liberation” was too much for my taste. Too much graphic sex for me. Rooting for Sandra Hüller. Betting on Lily Gladstone
But the sex scenes were very brief so I do not get that argument at all. Oh well.
@@tonyg76Well, tony, I’m glad you enjoyed the movie 👍🏾
@@slickwill9000 Thank you. It is too bad you did not.
I’m goin Barbie in adapted
I think your Barbie costume might have convinced me to switch. But the writing is on the wall as far as War is Over winning. Old people vote on this; 61 is the median voting age…..all of these people love John Lennon. You are going to miss on that one. Mark my words! Good show though.
I think I'm going to be switching. Someone here pointed out that a Live Action short won a few years ago with a low Letterbox'd score. I think someone mentioning that, as well as your confidence was all I needed to make the switch on Gold Derby. Cheers!
Curious as to how "both" sides of the aisle are banning books? Please tell me what books Democrats are trying to ban?? I too, think that "The ABCs of Book Banning" isn't the greatest short, but for reasons like it looked more like a powerpoint presentation, and that, it didn't convey all of the emotion it could have. In other words it could have been made better, and should have gone in even harder than it did. Censorship of any books is wrong, but when the books being banned are about the LGBTQIA+ community, or people of color, that's clearly saying something.
I think people should stop peddling this Emma/Cate front runner yielding to "history." Both Lily and Michelle won more critics' prizes against their competitors prior to the televised awards. Emma and Cate were not necessarily the de facto winners like so many pundits had fantasized. This idea that they gave "better" performances but in the end had to give in to the minorities is really insulting and dare I say it... "raci...."
💯🎉
Maybe not last year, but this year that is exactly what is happening in my opinion. Not racist. In fact, it is insulting to give it to Lily because of her narrative and not because of her performance. I am 100% team Emma because of her performance, not because Lily is of native american. Throwing the raci word out there is a lazy argument just meant to shut people up.
Apologies if that’s how it comes across. The race is tight because both performances are exceptional in very different way. There’s passion for both. And in terms of the televised vs. critics prizes, we know televised awards are really the major force that pushes actors across the finish line. I hold no fantasies about Emma being the de facto winner nor state the performance as being better. They’ve shared the televised awards and it’s a close race. It’s that simple. So now we are just looking very closely on other minute factors that could be tipping points.
Saying all that. I take what you say to heart and if the clinical approach came across that way, I’ll be sure to think deeper about my approach.
@@tonyg76tony, he’s clearly not talking about people like you. He’s calling out those who make the claims that he’s stating in his post. There are indeed people who are saying that Lily is winning because of the color of her skin, which is insulting. And before you say it, yes, there are others who are wanting her to win because of the color of her skin, which is also not okay.
Dude wasn’t being lazy, he was stating an unfortunate fact.
@@tonyg76 The Oscars (above the line) are never about merits. It's always about narrative. Robert Downey Jr. is winning is b/c of his narrative. Was he really better than, say, Robert DeNiro? I don't see people complaining about Downey's narrative. Just only when it comes to people of color. No, not racist at all.
I personally don’t understand why Lily Gladstone is best actress when her role was a supporting one and she wasn’t the main focal point of the movie!🤷🏾♀️… People also need to stop doing the Michelle Yeoh narrative based on the race issue because MY is more of an accomplished actress with way more experience in Hollyweird unlike Lily Gladstone, who is more of s breakthrough actress!
Narrative shouldn't be the determining factor. Acting is acting. Lily is competing against an actress who played a child in a woman body reanimated, going through several human stages, carrying the whole movie as the focus of the entire story in a fun strange movie. Meanwhile, she has a supporting role, one that everyone agrees SHOULD BE THE FOCUS BUT IT IS NOT, in a long movie with very few surprises that suffers from a miscast Leonardo DiCaprio as the actual main character.
@@frankcarlosanaliza hence the reason why Leonardo Di Caprio wasn’t nominated for his role.
Lily will win because of narrative, the members are trying to feel good voting for her because of the genocide to the indigenous people, which is disappointing because she’s not a lead role. She will steal it from true leads like Hüller and Stone.
Dumb reasons for Lily to win. It should be that Lily is the best performance not that Lily is history making or that Emma has already won one. I am 100% team Emma. Lily would be a disappointing win, just like Yeoh was a disappointing win.
Sadly the oscars are very much about optics nowadays and if you look at anonymous ballots (if those are real) there seem to barely be any voters who just vote their favorite thing there‘s always some external factors and this whole „you‘re racist if you want this white woman to win over making history“ thing is very much looming over them as much as people wanna deny it it‘s real. There‘s too much white guilt in the wrong places in america. It should be in politics but instead it‘s in hollywood awards voting bodies lol. Michelle was disappointing ngl but her movie was the most beloved of the season by far so I get it. Flower moon on the other hand has had 0 momentum since before the nominations even came out and didnt win any guilds. SAG loves a narrative and Lily certainly has that but the actors branch is only like a 10th of the whole voting body and we dont know how close SAG was so we dont know how close Emma was and what other factions are voting for but I have a little hope for emma since poor things seems to be more widely embraced even if lily is kinda seperated from her movie. This decade i‘ve always preferred the Oscar nominees but the BAFTA winners always lined up with my taste way more and I feel like this year will be no different.
Tony, if we predicted based on the performance alone, half of our predictions would be wrong. You know a lot of other factors go into this. You could think it’s dumb, but it’s a dumb reality.
@@RyanCasselman Sorry, dumb is a little too strong. Maybe I personally just do not see it with Lily performance wise either. At best, I think I think Lily is in supporting and do not get the hype for her performance or her movie. All true. The Oscars do themselves no favor voting that way though.
I disagree!!
Michelle Yeoh was the heart and soul of Everything Everywhere all at once!
That movie was amazing!!!!
I think Michelle Yeoh 100% deserved to win!!
Keep in mind, I’m all for diversity BUT I think that it should NEVER overtake merit.
I’m personally not a fan of “affirmative action.”
So, I disagree with you there.
I think Michelle Yeoh deserved to win simply because she was amazing in an amazing film. Everything Everywhere all at once was my favorite movie of 2022.
@@marvintran7813 Glad you enjoyed Yeoh and EEAAO. Personally, I did not enjoy either. Oh well.