ALL IN On Tesla: Billionaire Besties Get It Right--and WRONG!
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- Опубликовано: 1 май 2024
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ALL IN On Tesla?! The Besties on $TSLA, Optimus, and FSD
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He never said cheap knockoffs, but instead said, knock offs at lower prices and that's true.
I think most people are missing a major part of Robotaxi disruption. Think rental cars, and people that don't know the city they are in. Think Las Vegas, all large metro locations. And think, having to pay for a rental car and parking for a vehicle you barely use, in an environment that is foreign to you. The easy/smart option is to NOT rent a rental car, and hail a ride from your phone or curbside for the whole trip. That vehicle will be available anywhere at any time, and get you there super efficiently without a human driver to make you feel awkward, or uncomfortable. So to me the first disruption for robotaxi's will be rental car companies. Uber and the ride-share companies will see an opportunity to drop all the human drivers and make money, they won't need drivers and their clean maintained cars. They'll just need your well maintained autonomous vehicle. You, and them, both make money off of it, while you're not using it.
As a DaVinci robotics surgeon, let me correct and clarify- it technically is NOT an autonomous robot, but rather a Master-Slave bot that mimics the surgeons movements, and only moves as the surgeon on the console moves
It’s like watching women talk about football on SuperBowl Sunday.
We see again how the so called experts aren't always as good a source of information as the guy on the street. These guys look like they haven't bothered to do even basic research.
They might be more knowledgeable about the stock market overall but the niche investors of a certain industry are far more knowledgeable.
The problem with Optimus, unlike Robotaxi, is the level of competition in both established and upstart companies. The advantage of wherled vehicles with a upper torso very humanoid is speed of operation in flat environments. They can turn extremely rapidly.
One, and perhaps the only advantage Optimus may have is in house production of all components. NVIDIA has made a serious inroads by incorporating input from over a dozen robotics companies under its AI umbrella. Then there is Unitree with extreme skill in reducing "dog" robot prices to under $2,000. Those dogs are able to walk on their rear limbs. They just created a different, larger geometry they are selling for research purposes at $100k. But I expect them to retail in the $6-$10k range within 1-2 years.
Actually, they ARE the guys on the street. Those of us who actually follow Tesla regularly are the experts on Tesla - not necessarily the stock market, but Tesla. What is interesting is these are exactly the people the major news outlets ask about Tesla and they know way less than us.
@@richardereed9205 There are 100s or more places that can create the physical robot in all shapes and sizes. The robot computer/brain that is easy to train (not program) will be the winner(s). At this point that takes billions.
The self driving jaguar is no better than a Tesla. The only difference is instead of having a human in the driver seat, it’s someone in the cloud with extra latency and less situational awareness.
That's a big difference. If the car car can't keep its network connection up when it needs it the less aware remote driver is at a further disadvantage.
I am stunned that the besties have not used FSD……they are all Elon’s buddies and Jason is one of his best friends. Why are they so uninformed when one of their buddies is Elon???????
I suspect they have drivers who take them to their private jets.
They can't be as big friends of Elon as they like to suggest.
Yeah, I think FSD training is a self-reenforcing situation. It hasn't been in the past because humans have been in the loop. The way they are training it now and the better it gets, the more miles humans will give it and it will just keep compounding. I honestly think Tesla will have a robotaxi running, in public getting paid, as soon as they can produce them, so 2025.
Their ignorance is astounding and none of them really have any business talking about it lol
People like you always gatekeeping. Keep doing it though, i'm sure its a great service to FSD and so on.
Arrogance maybe, ignorance? No.
I liked the format and your thoughts on what they said.
John, I agree with your points. I use FSD 12.3.6 now and though it does require supervision and does make mistakes, it continues to improve and I anticipate the fortnightly updates like I used to my birthday and Christmas.
I subscribe to the fsd but mine is only V11.1, how can I get 12.3.6?
@@Locum-ms6gd On the phone app, I see that I have v11.1. When I press 'Release Notes' I see that FSD (Supervised) v12.3.6. What do you see on the app?
Agree, I am surprised how little they know about this. It is not jaguar that has self driving, it is waymo. And all 4 are so smart in every tech way. I was thinking the same when watching. - do more of this type of video. Love it.
Jason is definitely blinded by his investment in uber, 7 years out?!?! Lmao
I don't believe him for a second. He probably dumped Uber but does not want to eat crow by backing down on his supposed long position
Yep, I listened to this original podcast and had to switch it off after about 20 minutes. They may be rich, but they clearly haven't done great research.
Hard to believe one of them hadn't heard of Waymo
The car should take instruction by voice to clarify issues? 'Park on the right' 'park over there'
That is obviously going to come Elon owns X, X gas Grok it will be integrated with the TeslA car at some point
That seems to be coming very soon. The first app will apparently be non-driving instructions allowing things like media and climate controls. Someone has recently discovered this inside the Tesla software.
Yes this might be the next major training breakthrough. Also, I find often overlooked is the ability of Tesla to farm higher quality data. They can summon edge cases and train models very quickly.
I don’t think Tesla will introduce their Robotaxi service primarily with the existing fleet of Model 3/Y/S/Xs. I believe these EVs will only be about 20% of the Robotaxi fleet.
Tesla will start their CyberCab service with the specially designed Robotaxi vehicle - designed by first principally from the ground up to be a Robotaxi vehicle - no steering wheel, no accelerator or brake pads, 2-seater, small battery 25Kwh, and fabulous entertainment experience (multiple interactive screens, fabulous seats, speakers, etc.
When Tesla introduces such a new and disruptive service they need to do it with a great big SPLASH! A new specially designed CyberCab vehicle will make a huge Splash and will be noticed by everyone that sees them (like the CybrTrk). If Tesla starts the rollout with their existing models, it won’t get noticed at all because everyone is used to seeing these vehicles on city streets today. They won’t notice the subtle difference that there isn’t a driver.
Compelling video, much respect for the besties and I was expecting to glean knowledge from this episode, but they are blinded by ignorance and false narratives. I am very grateful for all I have learned from this burgeoning group of Tesla and AI aficionados.
I appreciated the content and format.
Very nice! Thank you!
I am bullish on self-driving in light of the FSD 12 reactions, but I'm still waiting for one particular milestone: the Vegas Loop going driverless. If Tesla isn't even driverless in a controlled environment like that then we still don't have solid evidence that robotaxis can be ever be driverless. FSD 12 seems fantastic but it still requires occasional intervention.
I am reminded of ChatGPT and its hallucinations. Maybe one day it will stop hallucinating, but for the moment the goal feels asymptotic, where we keep getting closer but never quite get there. It's the same with robotaxis. I hope they can eventually cross the "good enough" threshold.
Great meeting you at May the 4th be with you. Keep doing what you're doing, John. Best, Charlie
48:54 thought this format was great, John! 👍🏽😁
Good format I was surprised too when I heard their pod
About 15 years ago I went to Utah where they had a driverless car service in a finite area..
Great job, sir. Love the reaction format. It’s very informative with your opinions and corrections on top of what we are learning from the video subject.
Excellent podcast. Well done you 👌
40:59 we’ll find out later that all Cruise drives were actually remote driven(like military drones)…..just like the Amazon fresh store we shopped at was not AI powered, but human remote video trackers in India🙄😎
Like the format
I think cybercabs will first be seen in tubes - in Vegas. Very visible, no navigation to speak of, no traffic to speak of… Then spread it out fast.
38:30 exactly right. They also still think the weight hack works 🤣
Elon chose the human form factor for his robot because he envisions them working in environments designed for humans, using tools designed for humans, and replacing humans where possible. There is nothing that would restrict Tesla from offering variants to Optimus designed to fit exceptional use cases. Having the ability to replicate human movement patterns does not mean other movement patterns would be impossible. In short, I suspect that in the future, when ordering your Optimus Robot, you will have multiple options to enhance it. If you want one that has longer legs because you have a warehouse where that would be desirable, no problem. If you want a robot that can operate for 20 hours, you get the megapack battery, and your robot will be less mobile. There will always be specialized robots, but I expect Optimus to push some edge cases back in favor of an autonomous robot.
One argument that I've heard is that for those tasks that can be covered by special design robots, the industry is already on it. But an intelligent humanoid robot should (largely) be a drop in replacement for a human doing anything.
When Tesla Robotaxi only cost $25k and the others cost $100k+, just that alone, Tesla would take all the business or at least most of the profits if it charges same as others. I think the guy still has money in Uber, he looks kind of nervous.
Holding Uber investments now is the same as hoping Toyota is successful with hybrids. Retail investors are now smarter than most media talk heads 😮
I liked the format or your video.
Great conversations and love your commentary. You’re much more informed about the technical aspects than they are , they seem to be just money people. Still interesting to hear their views.
I live in Los Angeles. I’m constantly having to disengage self driving. From it being crazy driving and almost causing accidents
Move.
Nice insights. It's very useful to watch outside our bubbles and check our understanding of FSD and Tesla in general with other people (sometimes less educated on the matter)
Nobody is beating Tesla to truly reliable FSD
If the true goal is eliminating particulate emissions, then electric trucking will become vastly more important after BEV's and Robo-taxis have become more commonplace.
My reaction...Loved it!
One thing that no one talks about is FSD is essentially a guidance system. Once the U.S. Military gets going in this you have a way more capable system to guide missiles and vehicles then today. Think sending a cruise missile down a street 50 ft off the ground and sent to specific address to deliver “ a package”!! Why do we think China is super ok with FSD with the Elon meeting. FSD will be a national security issue soon.
Chamath was talking "sharps" and "squares" but his and the pod's comments showed they were more squares than sharps.
hundred millin mini energy suppliers gotta be the dumbest idea. Imagine the cost of maintaining a hundred million homes vs. centralized farms. Rooftop is a good arbitrage because utilities is a terribly unhealthy market but it makes no foundational sense.
Full Self local Driving. Don't want to risk going on a long trip to find all chargers are down.
Party tricks 🎉
Wonderful reaction video.
@drkownitallknows great video. How are the robotaxis or cybercabs going to autonomously charge at Tesla superchargers? What is Tesla going to put in place for them? Especially when they have fired the supercharger team?
I liked the format. Those guys were not experts in this field and should not be listened to about robo-taxis. Waymo's cars are not $150K, they're closer to $250K. The cost of the monitoring overhead makes Waymo and Cruze's ride costs more than Uber, so they're losing huge amounts of money to gain market share. It's a fools errand.
Great video!
I have seen it and was also surprised that only Sax was knowledgeable on that topic.
Energy will be great but in comparison to Robotaxi and Bot it will be a small part of Tesla.
I understand trucks may be a better environmental play than cars. Ride share may be almost as good environmentally. All of it is needed.
I enjoyed it but I like a 20min quick take. Listening to folks talk outside their real domain, was interesting to see how others see 'our bubble', but it doesn't expand our understanding of the same subjects. Occasional vids like this are good. Not as a steady diet.
The idea of modifying the basic optimus robot to impart more abilities intrigues me. For example optimus could have a pair of human hands that are only 10 mm in size so it can work on tiny things that our big hands can't. Also vision can be vastly improved over human.
"All In" pod highly recommended. Here Chamath mistakenly cites residential solar as Tesla's energy play, which of course is more about Megapack. Residential solar is contingent on significant advances in efficiency (years away) to be viable beyond the sun belt. Where he is more directionally correct (albeit using the wrong example) is his assertion that bipedal humanoids may not be the optimal configuration for autonomous robots. Although we're drawn to the androids like Optimus, I suspect that wheels, grippers and purpose-built form factors may prevail over conventional legs and hands except where direct human mimicry is necessary. Be sure and check out that Geordie Rose interview all you fellow robofans.
Hey guys, great work, I was just wondering what your take is on the majority of the supercharger team being let go, it seems to me that the expansion of charging charger, is it a bit counterproductive since the media accentuates the inconvenience of never having a charge station available. When you need it, is there some kind of new technology that allows Tesla to delay, expansion of the older supercharger technology. In China
The higher and EV’s are starting to roll out with 600 mile range capacity, could we see something like this and would it affect the charging
He better sell all his Uber Uber today
John, Elon has stated several times that energy would grow faster than the EV business to eventually equal to or be a bit bigger than the EV business in terms of gross margin.
We all know that ride hailing will be multiple times greater than the EV business and therefore by reference, the energy business as well.
Chamath is the new Jim Kramer
Big difference between Real Investors and Speculators and the latter makes more noise.
I think those 4 guys could use your knowledge.
Always enjoy your content, especially how you make it easy to digest for us "non-know-it-all" types. Great analysis. I am excited for the day when I start seeing Tesla's like mine, navigating the roads completely driverless. I think that day will be here sooner than most are thinking. NEVER bet against Elon Musk!
Always busy with the great content. Thanks!
This just goes to show how inaccurate they can be on other topics. We would have never known if it wasn’t for our own knowledge being in the tesla bubble
Uber will be the next blockbuster or Kodak if FSD becomes good enough for robotaxi.
The cost energy will plummet as the cost to deploy solar and wind plummets, as we implement super conductors, and as we enter the age of super energy, where we produce twice as much energy as we need annually in order to compensate for the 20 year cycle of a 2 or 3 year solar winter - where the annual solar radiation declines for a few years in a row. Even with the huge energy demands of AI, I still believe energy would be third on the list for Tesla.
Thanks for another great show. I feel that Optimus for Tesla is similar to Starlink for SpaceX. They're building something with huge market potential, by building on what they already are great at. I think Optimus is a clear #1 here, but I do lean towards energy as #2 because it's a huge market with limited competition and the market will get bigger forever. I think of it in terms of revenue streams, and a guaranteed revenue stream would be really powerful. lol, maybe SpaceX could out-Tesla Tesla, if they wanted to.
What are Semi-Trucks going to do? They need level 4 Supercharges?
I love the podcast, nicely balanced. Tho sometimes they appear so dumb like Chamath had no clue drinking water from plastic bottles is bad for u lol
Could you put a data center in Antarctica to help cool it without using energy? Really
Yeah, I think Tesla has a whole lot of cars in inventory that they will just roll out to the network once they've gotten approval and have worked out some kinks in the ride-hailing software and maintenance infrastructure.
STEERING WHEELS ARE DANGEROUS FLAW
In the clips of Waymo and Jaguar autonomous driving they all have the mechanically connected steering wheel moving in a ghostly way. In an unmanned taxi this is highly dangerous unless you physically block off the driver seat position, which loses seating capacity. Otherwise a clumsy or drunk passenger can knock or recklessly try to take control of the steering and cause a crash.
Autonomous taxis need to either:
○ Have no steering wheel or
○ Have steer-by-wire where the steering wheel can be electronically deactivated.
After all, a major use case for taxis is people going home after getting to drunk to legally drive or even make sensible decisions.
Tesla will have autonomous service in either SF or Austin this year NO DOUBT
He's still long on Uber? What exactly is this conversation about??
guys remember night Rider car has been driving it's self for a very long time back in the 80,s
Quiet down ..
Grownups are talking... 😂😂
Good video. Be a sharp, don’t be a square.
These guys are playing 16bit games as the PS5 comes out. They are decades behind. Wow.
I wonder if “deux” is a reference to deus ex machina.
I don't understand why people believe labor is the most significant part of rideshare; it's not. If that were the case, then 90% of drivers would be paying taxes, which they are not. The majority of the cost of rideshare lies with operating a vehicle, which is not cheap. Uber and Lyft understand this, but outsiders seem to think otherwise.
I think the data says otherwise. I was involved in a bus study. Percentages were: Driver 80%, Fuel 15%, Bus 5%. And a bus is much more expensive than a car.
@@kimollivier how much of that 80% is calculated in the cost (time)of the driver maintaining that vehicle I.e cleaning, maintenance, quick inspections, put in fuel. If they are able to remove the driver it will be similar to Hydra instead of one person doing all of that now you have 5 to 6 people.
Yes! Tesla will get there first. FSD is Amazing! I use it every time I drive my car and I feel SAFE on the Highways and back roads ie with Crazy! dumb cars on the roads… Tesla FSD HANDS DOWN!!!
Read _Part Trois,_trucking is the single largest source of pollutants on our roads. It needs to be addressed _third,_ not last.
I would choose driverless (which is proven statistically safe) over human Uber driver any day, even at a little higher cost. But driverless will be much lower price. Will destroy the market for Uber, Lyft,.. bus?
and they can be billionaires with that knowledge🤔
Do not trust Chamath with your investment dollars.
In the opening clip we hear him expound on Tesla and how they have a great strategy and execution, sounding super knowledgeable and intelligent That's what he does to gain investor trust.
Later on we discover he doesn't actually know who Waymo is, or anything about the self driving market.
Nice contrast.
Regarding spending, if Elon was including inference in the $10B spent, that likely includes FSD computers/cameras in vehicles. Given ~2m vehicles made in 2024, and assuming FSD costs ~$1000-1500, that means that $2-3B of the investment is just part of the cars sold. It still leaves ~$7B for training which is 🤯 but less than $10B - so bascially about $500M a month for 2024.
I can not believe thes people are ignorant of FSD and so exillerated with Wamo and Cruise???? Is this 2023? John you might trying to contact them to bring this group up to speed.
These guys are interesting. Chamath has spoken about Tesla with great detail and understanding about their long-term potential and the competition, and yet here he had to ask about Waymo, like he's never heard of it? It's as if they fully understand only half of Tesla. I think if you're still asking basic questions, it makes me wonder how you are qualified to be in a discussion around FSD.
I am quite surprise as they all work in sv…. I dunno how come they don’t know abt autonomous driving….. so it means there are more VC out there’s have no clue abt Tesla FSD…. And imagine the Wall Street analyst… even worse
Tesla bubble is the best bubble.... 2nd place have telescopes on the way in the post
Is the reason why Tesla is going from 1b spend on ai chips to 10b this year due to the amount of data they're going to have to process for FDS in China and Europe?
I’m not sure if ride share will ever replace my car, but if my car can drive itself my family will only need one car
My mom is 73. I bought a 2022 Tesla Model 3 Long Range so that when she can't drive in a few years, I can send the car 100 miles away to take her shopping and then call it back when she is done.
@@davidbeppler3032 why not just order her a local robotaxi?
Every brain only has so much room. Thanks for adding this commentary.
I subscribe to RUclips Premium to avoid their ads, only to encounter your host-read ones, which means I have to take the trouble to move the playback needle to a later point manually. Please stop.
Yes its funny how misinformed they are around why Tesla will win.
1. Data flywheel
2. Unit cost is a mile cheaper
3. End to end NN and vision
I would say Optimus number one trucking number two ride-sharing number three and energy number four robots are doing all the jobs where are all these people going other than the store in the woods to hang out what was the stores are closed because of Amazon and because robots are doing most of the jobs everybody's going to have to have a universal income in the next 3 years.
All of them require energy, Chamath Palihapitiya is right. It's not that he's not obsessed like most but, dialed in on the most important need, and that is energy. FSD v12.3.6 is far from ready. I have it and interventions are still there. I'm in savannah.
I am just some old guy with one first name and even I know the difference between WAYMO/Cruise/geo-fenced radar/lidar and the Tesla vision system with neural networks that could work in Kathmandu. Who are these dummies on your show? 12.3.6 takes me where ever I want to go.
Owning your own vehicle doesn't become a really stupid idea just because it's "cheaper" to usa a robo Taxi. How much is personal freedom and liberation worth? Serious question. My truck has all my personal gear in it. It waits for me outside my house. I maintain it, clean it. Pick the air freshener, pick the stereo, pick the floor mats and seat covers. Seriously, nothing would convince me to get rid of my personal vehicle and personal freedoms that come with it to save a little tiny bit of money. How am I the only person that sees this. I'm literally sitting in my truck right now. Drinking coffee on the beach. Doesn't cost me a dime to sit here. You think anybody wants to sit on the beach in a fricking robo taxi? I have never once gotten a response to any comment about the freedoms you trade when using a robot taxi. Not once.
Nowhere did anyone say 100% of people wouldn’t we want to keep a vehicle for personal reasons? Also at some point it’s going to be illegal for humans to drive on public roads.
You won’t, I won’t, many will give up car ownership. I’ve never used doordash or any other fast food delivery, and yet it’s a business. Young people think different. Getting a licence is a thing we’ve done. Young people may well go “why?”.
Some won't give up private vehicle ownership. But who cares if 1% to 5% are holdouts?
Some people spend money on sailboats, some on planes, some on greens fees, ....
Okay, I agree with you. But what about when you fly somewhere on vacation to a place you know very little about. Say, Oahu, Hawaii. You fly in and have the opportunity to walk out of the airport to an awaiting Autonomous vehicle that is a computer on wheels and know all the hotels eateries, cool beaches with great surf anywhere you may want to go. That vehicle will only charge you for the time you use it with no parking fees, and you can summon them with your phone, anywhere and any time, day or night. Without a human driver at the wheel to question you or make you feel uncomfortable about anything. Would you use that service? Or rent a car and pay parking fees at the hotel and other locations, in this vacation land that you know nothing about? The answer seems easy to me. This is what I think the first use case of robotaxi's will be. Who knows, maybe the ride-share companies will jump at the opportunity to pay people for the use of their autonomous cars, without having to pay for drivers with their cars.
A lot of people won't give up that freedom. I know I won't, BUT right now we have FOUR freaking cars. I have my truck, which doesn't get used much and I would never get rid of because of its capabilities and then we have the main car my wife and I use daily and each of my kids have their own cars. If the RoboTaxis were everywhere 100% I am getting rid of at least two, if not three, of the four vehicles!
I like it. Can I do a reaction to your reaction video?❤
All three of these guys have made multiple statements to the fact that none of them actually know what they're talking about and none of them are actually up-to-date on current circumstances regarding anything that has been discussed whether it is FSD or solar or battery storage or anything else none of them actually are up-to-date and therefore none of them actually know what the hell they're talking about because everything that they are saying is completely outdated buy a minimum of 9 months
Obviously, if there is clueless as they are. Then you need to find new sources to be your gurus
These guys live in a bubble. They've argued in favor of nuclear as a climate change solution without knowing the very high cost of new nuclear.
So, Dr. KIA, you put trucking at the bottom of the barrel. In a monetary sense that may be true. But in terms of Elon's master plan perhaps not. The EPA says, "Heavy- and medium-duty trucks make up only 10% of the vehicles on the road but contribute 28% of transportation-related global warming pollution, along with 45% of nitrogen oxides and 57% of fine particulate matter from on-road vehicles." So in terms of Musk's world ambition they are an extremely important component.
Tesla Wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What competition. What DATA. Tesla wins!!!
7:35 dude look like... A-line Musk.