Thanks Brian, a quality forecast as always. As you say, its looks very marginal for snow for us southerners which is not surprising as its only mid November, but that's fine with me as cold and snow don't appeal to me like they did when I was a kid back in the 80's.
I still look forward to the possibility of snow but I know what you mean. The big difference back in the 80s was that most winters brought decent falls which stuck around for several days.
There has been NO snow for yeas now, ever since I went and paid out for a snowplough, never seen any since the day it arrived, the best insurance against snow possible.😊
That would great if it did. The last time we had any snow of any significance was back on Christmas Day 1990-91 . I remember as I had to drive 27 miles to my partners parents house for Christmas dinner.
When I'm trying to dig myself out of my house next week, I will remember angrily that you told us not to pay too much attention to the GFS and GEM forcasts.
Fingers crossed for you. I'm sure your snow scorecard will look a lot better than mine come April. Although I may go to the Alps to balance things a little.
Always great videos but could you start to add in information regarding Inverness. The weather in the Highlands is usually very different to Glasgow. Thanks
Agree with your point and I realise the conditions on the ground may be very different. The issue is the videos are already quite long and I'm reluctant to add in more locations during the week 2 part because it is only about trends and probabilities. For example, if a cold air mass from the north is covering Aberdeen it is likely to also be over the Highlands.
We could get a blizzard here where I live near King's Lynn.... I haven't known a blizzard in absolutely donkey's years, and I mean absolutely f**king years.
Did you get one back in late-February to early-March 2018? That was the last one in Bedford. As far as cold is concerned. We had a much colder spell during December 2022, even more so than 2018, but not much snow, just hard frost.
What helps with the southern extent forecast of snow is history. We hardly ever get the snow in Oxford it's usually north of us. This set up has occurred so many times & so the forecast is a bit easier.!
I don't agree with that entirely. The M4 corridor is often quoted as the boundary between snow and rain in this type of set-up but it isn't always the case. Also, it's remarkable how many people think they live in the least snowy part of the UK, perhaps because of overblown reports in the press and on social media which give the impression that everywhere else is getting hammered. Last January was a good example. Many people in the south thought the north was getting a lot of snow whereas the reality is it was localised. I had to drive up to Durham during the cold spell and although there was snow on the Yorkshire Dales the vast majority of places were green.
Whilst the European is the most accurate differences are relatively small and IMO often overstated. Currently, at t+5 days the anomaly coefficient for GFS is 0.909 whilst for ECMWF it is 0.932. I think that suggests the latter is about 2.5% more accurate. Therefore, my view is that the most important thing is to look at the different models to see how consistent they are with each other, rather than just jumping onboard with one of them. That said, if I could only pick one it would be the ECMWF.
I currently use London, Manchester and Glasgow primarily because of the south to north coverage they give. It's really important to remember that during the week 2 part of the forecast it is only about general trends and not specifics. Therefore, adding more locations wouldn't really add much value.
Will the risk of heavy snow be medium around the East Midlands area, specifically Leicester? We usually miss out on snow in cold spells as we are basically in the middle of England so rarely showers get here.
Snow is just additional proof that the temperature is rising at an exponential rate. It is too hot to snow in the Arctic so the snow has had to come south.
Brian.. you need to look at your graphics formatting. I watched the update first on TV and no snow row. Please keep important information away from the edges.
Wow. Supposed to be uk weather outlook and your symbols only go as far as Inverness. I live in wick I take it I’ve just to guess what my weather is going onto be. Typical London English centric. Loads of detail for England not much for the rest of the colonies. Typical.
Did you watch the video through to conclusion? I think it gives balanced coverage for across the UK. In the second week I use 3 locations London, Manchester and Glasgow to see what the general patterns may be. There is no point in adding additional locations be they Newquay, Birmingham or Wick because current technology doesn't enable a level of precision to make it worthwhile.
That would be something. One thing I'd flag up about 1962 is that it was a cold year even before the winter. All months from March onwards were below the 1961-90 Central England Temperature (CET) norm. This year only June has dipped below and that was by a tiny 0.1C.
I was at a staff college in Guisborough, Cleveland November 1962 until easter 1963 I have never seen snow quite like it, we were marooned seemingly for weeks--oddly the supplies of Newcastle Brown ale thankfully always got through--happy days
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWOInfact though, the polar vortex has been at record breaking cold temperatures(-90c and below). So I bet if we see a strong weakening of the PV, we could be in for some serious winter weather because we see the opposite weather happening because June 2023 was the hottest and as you said that June this year was 0.1 below average, which is pretty cool, so take it into accounts for the previous winter months.
Used to get heavy snow showers in Sussex coast off the channel. Most unlikely now since Siberia warmed up due to forest fires beast from East we used to know unlikely now. Still we can hope😅😅
Princetown and above maybe 1000 feet to 1500 feet but nothing lower down. Also this is from low pushing up against the blocking cold & not the initial northerly
Forrest gump said life is like a box of chocolates ya never know what ya gonna get so we either get rained on and get soaked we get snow and cant go out or high winds and fear trees and hope for the best our gardens and bins are safe this is GB lol 🤣👍😊
How the hell is this important I'm absolutely positive I had this sussed by 6yrs old as we all got taught hot in summer cold in winter it's not rocket science and believe it or not we were all absolutely fine and we went out playing in blizzards having fun , it's all bloody scare tactics nowadays
Snow is like sex, you never know when you’ll get it or how long it will last 👍🏻🇬🇧
Oh dear what a glass half empty life you have
!ol
When your married it happens once every few years and turns soggy very quickly 😂
😂😂😂😂
And you suddenly get caught out..🤣
Thanks Brian, a quality forecast as always. As you say, its looks very marginal for snow for us southerners which is not surprising as its only mid November, but that's fine with me as cold and snow don't appeal to me like they did when I was a kid back in the 80's.
I still look forward to the possibility of snow but I know what you mean. The big difference back in the 80s was that most winters brought decent falls which stuck around for several days.
Excellent forecast as usual. Very helpful for us folks working outdoors.
Glad to help
Really helpful forecast. Not a fan of coats, but it looks like I'll have to get one!😂
Pleased you found it useful
There has been NO snow for yeas now, ever since I went and paid out for a snowplough, never seen any since the day it arrived, the best insurance against snow possible.😊
My snow shovel gets more use clearing leaves in the autumn.
Our weather systems are man made thats why
But if you turn out to be wrong, can I borrow your snow plough, please?
I believe it will snow Christmas Eve around 8 pm, and the snow will clear around 6am Boxing and 😊
That would great if it did. The last time we had any snow of any significance was back on Christmas Day 1990-91 . I remember as I had to drive 27 miles to my partners parents house for Christmas dinner.
It will be beautiful 😊
That sound at the beginning takes me back to 80/90s… gave me nostalgia
That's good but I hadn't really considered it before. Oddly, I had Dare playing on Spotify this morning whilst putting together the forecast.
It reminds me of the start of disney movies in the 80s
Nahhh you're the UK, you'll just be wet, cold and miserable 😂
Never discount that. As I said even if the precipitation arrives in copious quantities a lot of it could fall as rain.
Depends on what the
RAF have planned this
month.
👍
Worse than that.
@@THE-END-OF-TIMES our sky is full of fake man made weather as been for years! The nest weather prediction is PURE CHEM TRAILS
When I'm trying to dig myself out of my house next week, I will remember angrily that you told us not to pay too much attention to the GFS and GEM forcasts.
remember to shake your fist at the sky and scream BRRRRRRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!!!!!!!!! *shake*
I bought a couple of sacks of rocksalt earlier this week. -:)
Using snow charts that far out is ridiculous 😂
It is November and about time we had a touch of frost and even a bit of snow. It's called winter you know.
Interesting forecast👍 Hope that cold gets to Sweden too!
Fingers crossed for you. I'm sure your snow scorecard will look a lot better than mine come April. Although I may go to the Alps to balance things a little.
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Thank you! We’ll see ❄️
Great new find thanks
Thanks for watching!
Its not going to snow in the south. Just scotland. Dont be silly
Did you watch the video? I explained how marginal conditions could be.
Always great videos but could you start to add in information regarding Inverness. The weather in the Highlands is usually very different to Glasgow.
Thanks
Agree with your point and I realise the conditions on the ground may be very different. The issue is the videos are already quite long and I'm reluctant to add in more locations during the week 2 part because it is only about trends and probabilities. For example, if a cold air mass from the north is covering Aberdeen it is likely to also be over the Highlands.
I was scraping ice from my car this morning, sw England.
Still low laying mist in Scotland
I *think* I mentioned the frost risk for last night in my last update.
Wow I haven't done that in years 🤣
High Ground in Northern Britain will get a dusting at the highest points and a few frosts, cheers Brian.
I expect it will be more extensive than that TBH, but things do look marginal, particularly in the southern half of the UK.
Always south of the Pennines , I'm North Yorks a so we shall see, thanks.
The weather watcher is the best
I am sure in anrtatica it will be cold.
The penguin need to rap up😂
Thanks Brian.Hope we don't get snow in the UK.
Personally I hope we do, but of course the weather will do what it does regardless of us!
In other words, they don't know 😅
We could get a blizzard here where I live near King's Lynn.... I haven't known a blizzard in absolutely donkey's years, and I mean absolutely f**king years.
Did you get one back in late-February to early-March 2018? That was the last one in Bedford.
As far as cold is concerned. We had a much colder spell during December 2022, even more so than 2018, but not much snow, just hard frost.
Even the weather gods don’t like the English. 😂😂
Something interesting at last Brian.
Yes it looks interesting. That is the key word.
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO I think your presentation style is very clear and easy for people to understand by comparison to many weather forecasters.
VAGUE....
.GUESS WORK...
AS USUAL WITH ALL FORECASTERS
What helps with the southern extent forecast of snow is history. We hardly ever get the snow in Oxford it's usually north of us. This set up has occurred so many times & so the forecast is a bit easier.!
I don't agree with that entirely. The M4 corridor is often quoted as the boundary between snow and rain in this type of set-up but it isn't always the case. Also, it's remarkable how many people think they live in the least snowy part of the UK, perhaps because of overblown reports in the press and on social media which give the impression that everywhere else is getting hammered.
Last January was a good example. Many people in the south thought the north was getting a lot of snow whereas the reality is it was localised. I had to drive up to Durham during the cold spell and although there was snow on the Yorkshire Dales the vast majority of places were green.
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO we had a bad snow day but it very rarely stays more than a day or so in huddersfield
Euros is the model to go by, even Americans would agree with long range Hurricanes appearing ahead of any other models.
Whilst the European is the most accurate differences are relatively small and IMO often overstated. Currently, at t+5 days the anomaly coefficient for GFS is 0.909 whilst for ECMWF it is 0.932. I think that suggests the latter is about 2.5% more accurate. Therefore, my view is that the most important thing is to look at the different models to see how consistent they are with each other, rather than just jumping onboard with one of them. That said, if I could only pick one it would be the ECMWF.
All of a sudden nothing happened
Please include Hull in your forecasts.How long will this cold last.?
My mother sells socks in Hull!🤪
I currently use London, Manchester and Glasgow primarily because of the south to north coverage they give. It's really important to remember that during the week 2 part of the forecast it is only about general trends and not specifics. Therefore, adding more locations wouldn't really add much value.
Thanks Brian, an island of reason in a sea of conjecture.
Very welcome
Will the risk of heavy snow be medium around the East Midlands area, specifically Leicester? We usually miss out on snow in cold spells as we are basically in the middle of England so rarely showers get here.
North York moors look interesting for precipitation.
Much slush in Haworth.
Yes I would think so
Snow is just additional proof that the temperature is rising at an exponential rate. It is too hot to snow in the Arctic so the snow has had to come south.
No snow. Wrong as usual.
No snow for where?
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Anywhere. It won't snow
Still too far away to get excited or worried, wherever you stand on wintery weather.
Yes it is still a long way off in weather terms
We will see what happens.
Indeed we shall
did not see snow here in southern ireland since 2018
That would be the "Beast From The East" spell in Feb - Mar 2018.
Wonder if we have Snow for the Welsh Valleys
That you will never know all this dickhead is interested in is engurlandshite.
Thought the tips of my toes were feeling a bit nippy!
Sounds like they'd be good forecasters!
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 😂
Its too early to snow here where i live, never have any until at least January/February & then it's only a light dusting
Please include Hull in your forecasts.
What for? 😂
Brian.. you need to look at your graphics formatting. I watched the update first on TV and no snow row. Please keep important information away from the edges.
When I watch on RUclips the snow row values are clearly visible. I'm not sure why that isn't the case when viewing on TV.
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Nevertheless one should always try to keep important detail away from the edges.. exactly like cropping a photograph.!
Wow. Supposed to be uk weather outlook and your symbols only go as far as Inverness. I live in wick I take it I’ve just to guess what my weather is going onto be. Typical London English centric. Loads of detail for England not much for the rest of the colonies. Typical.
Did you watch the video through to conclusion? I think it gives balanced coverage for across the UK. In the second week I use 3 locations London, Manchester and Glasgow to see what the general patterns may be. There is no point in adding additional locations be they Newquay, Birmingham or Wick because current technology doesn't enable a level of precision to make it worthwhile.
I have a really strange feeling that there will be some weather tomorrow 😂
snow in scotland yeah its way to early to predict snow for anywhere else in the UK
My money is on a 1963 winter. Starting January
That would be something. One thing I'd flag up about 1962 is that it was a cold year even before the winter. All months from March onwards were below the 1961-90 Central England Temperature (CET) norm. This year only June has dipped below and that was by a tiny 0.1C.
I was at a staff college in Guisborough, Cleveland November 1962 until easter 1963 I have never seen snow quite like it, we were marooned seemingly for weeks--oddly the supplies of Newcastle Brown ale thankfully always got through--happy days
Would be something to see proper snow
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWOInfact though, the polar vortex has been at record breaking cold temperatures(-90c and below). So I bet if we see a strong weakening of the PV, we could be in for some serious winter weather because we see the opposite weather happening because June 2023 was the hottest and as you said that June this year was 0.1 below average, which is pretty cool, so take it into accounts for the previous winter months.
That was due to global warming lol
At last the weather has b come interesting after all the doom and gloom of recentweeks
Agree
Is the sea warm? I want to heat my house. Why waste good hot water in the sea. Let me know Thanks
Interesting, but living down here on the Somerset Levels I won't hold my breath.
Used to get heavy snow showers in Sussex coast off the channel. Most unlikely now since Siberia warmed up due to forest fires beast from East we used to know unlikely now. Still we can hope😅😅
Amoc Collapse
Will there be wintry weather in midlands
Possibly!
Can’t wait
This is not politics it's weather!
no chance of snow in southern parts below 600 feet 💦
So blizzards on Dartmoor then 🤪
Princetown and above maybe
1000 feet to 1500 feet but nothing lower down. Also this is from low pushing up against the blocking cold & not the initial northerly
@@chas3997 yeah some parts are over 2000 ft
@@chas3997 yeah northerly winds are very disappointing they rarely deliver much snow down south north easterly much better.
@@chas3997 but as you said you only get a real dumping of snow when milder air from the Atlantic collides with cold air
2x▶️▶️
That reminded me of Spinal Tap for some reason. "ours go up to 11. Tha't 1 louder than 10" -:)
Lets remember anything over 5 days is guesswork!
Forrest gump said life is like a box of chocolates ya never know what ya gonna get so we either get rained on and get soaked we get snow and cant go out or high winds and fear trees and hope for the best our gardens and bins are safe this is GB lol 🤣👍😊
GFS loves a drama.
Tell me about it, Euros is what's got the golf of Mexico hurricanes correct every time this season.
Never knowingly undersold in that respect?
Three years without snow..
They say the same thing every year it never happens
I guarantee we will be back to the usual mild muck after next week as per usual
😮 Please don't tell me I might have to put the heating on...disaster....but our cats will be happy at last.
hooray ....snow all the way...
Cansip is a terrible model
I didn't use Cansips in this video.
How the hell is this important I'm absolutely positive I had this sussed by 6yrs old as we all got taught hot in summer cold in winter it's not rocket science and believe it or not we were all absolutely fine and we went out playing in blizzards having fun , it's all bloody scare tactics nowadays