Very good learning video.. It would be gr8 in future.. If you could make a video on actual trade you took on this strategy.. So that we can relate theory & practical.. Gr8 content guys..
I have been in the markets for a long time and trades stocks and sell options. I learnt quite a few things from this videos and on days when I learn one new thing (which is seldom) it is a good and on a day like this when I learnt quite a few things it is a wonderful day. Thanks for sharing your knowledge freely and being humble. My prayers are that you find much success. God bless and keep up the good work!
What could be done in a very simplistic way ( charting and not statistical arbitrage)to what you're explaining , is to plot the Ratio( Stock 1/ Stock 2 ) or spread chart on Tradingview and plot a 200 period Bollinger band. As per the logic, the period would represent the lookback period and the bands would be +/- 2SD, and as your concept, short the spread at the top band and long the spread at the lower band. This however is not the ideal way of doing it as, typically and not in every case , the band once breached will cause a further expansion in the same direction and will incur HEAVY losses for sometimes months at a time, so placing stop losses (huge) on ratio or time is needed . But this expansion will then also be factored in while downloading historical data (although the absolute closing prices remain same) and calculating the ratio of the entire data set. So in hindsight it would be easier to pick trades but at the time , it's a little trickier than this. Correct me if im wrong, just my input here
I want to thank optionable and you for the insight.... if I may add ; when the ratios are plotted on TV, considering this is a mean reverting strategy it would be easier if one uses VWAP as the mean reference for making decisions on the pairs.
saket, one more great stuff from you guys.. a lot of youtubers talk about this but never explain what, why & how.. appreciate your effort, great going and keep educating..
I guess you need to calculate rolling mean instead of absolute mean while backtesting and picking entries, because as per your selection of trade on the said day, the mean at that point of time having calculated with the available data till that point would differ from calculating backwards from today.
It would be great, if u can giude us on considering other parameters like "correlation co-efficient/z-score" etc to chose a pair for pair trading. It would definitely help us in taking better pair trading decision with more confidence. Thanks in advance.
Interesting strategy. I haven't understood why the strategy is holding position till the ratio reaches average rather than squaring off the position once the ratio reaches into the range of (Avg +/- 2x SD).
Therefore it would give a good trade in hindsight , but as on day it may cause the ratio to only diverge as in the shorter term , the stronger stock would outperform
According to backrest it is time consuming trade held for months problem in futures will be roll over cost and premium paid that will take away all your profits
@@optionables first of all you know that futures buying requires premium to pay some 0.5-1.0 % extra on underlying asset value which will become equal to spot on every expiry means you have to pay the premium extra cost, assuming one trade is held for 8 months that's 8% vanished
That's where you have missed a point. Both futures will be at premium. You will be shorting one and buying one more. So when you buy one at premium and short one kore at premium. They more or less offset each other
Such a scientific approach to stock market which the usual traders are not aware of... Great content!!! Please bring more such videos... Is there any strategy anywhere which can give a return of 3-5% per day, with high probability? Please share such strategies...
I have never come across such a strategy anywhere. I am really surprised that we can literally do any kind of trade in the market if we apply proper logic. Thanks for this video guys. Looking forward for more such secrets, which only the big guys seem to be knowing.
I liked this idea to do pair trading but aint the backtesting you did incorrect. shouldn't the MA and STDEV be moving. You calculated MA and STDEV past 5 yrs....and then backtesting past data on this moving avg and std rather than calculating ma and stdev on that day on whicj you took trade. am I missing something?
Good info: One query. You have consider full data (5 years) for Average and standard deviation. If some one takes only 2 years of data, would der be a difference in Average and SD.? Also what stoploss would u suggest?
In pair trading correlated currency pairs(say AUD/USD & NZD/USD) do you compare RSI value & sell overpriced pair & buy the weaker? OR do you compare CCI of each pair? Do you suggest using cross currencies as pair trades(eg EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY)? On 4H chart sum up RSI 3, RSI 7,RSI 14, & compare added value on each pair. Thank you.
What happens if any one of the stock gives dividend/split/bonus/any corporate actions during the analysis days/period, will it affect the analogy, please help, clarifying this
Thank you for the video As you told 5/3/2020 Buy HDFC , Sell Kotak , now The average adjusted after 4 months(16/07/202), is it possible to hold FUT postions for 4months?
Sir you can roll over the futures on the expiry day..u do tht buy closing all the positions of that month and making fresh positions in the next month futures..u Can also refer to other videos on RUclips to understand how to do roll over..
How do we know which stock to go long and which stock to go short based on the ratios? lets say if a stock close ratio has fallen below the 2SD and now how will I know which stock to short and which stock to go long
if the ratio has gone down then it must come up to the average. We have two stocks one which is the numerator in finding the ratio and another which is the denominator, like here HDFC bank was the numerator and Kotak was the denominator. In order for the ratio to go up three things can happen, the numerator can go up while denominator remains the same, the denominator goes down while the numerator remains the same or both the numerator goes up and denominator comes down. So, the ideal trade is to buy the numerator and sell the denominator. In this example it translated to buying HDFC bank and selling Kotak Bank.
These are some good pairs in my opinion- 1. Hdfc - hdfc bank 2. Bajaj finance- Bajaj Finserv 3. Manappuram finance- Muthoot Finance 4. PFC - REC 5. ACC - Ambuja 6. Hdfc bank - Kotak Bank 7. TCS - INFOSYS
Hi . Have u done a sensitivity analysis of overall returns vs stop loss? I mean would the returns be substantially different if i take a 25% stop loss target vis a vis a 30% target?
Very nice video. Just one question. As per the example provided, it takes more than 3months to reach the mean SD. Is it possible to buy/sell futures with more than 3months expiry?
Sir you can roll over the futures on the expiry day..u do tht buy closing all the positions of that month and making fresh positions in the next month futures..u Can also refer to other videos on RUclips to understand how to do roll over..
5 Years Historical data Avg Ratio share Price (INFY/TCS): 0.375 Std D of Avg. : 0.036 Avg+2 x std D : 0.446 Avg-2 x std D : 0.303 So does it mean "Sell Infy at 1574 and Buy TCS at 3380" ....pls suggest...
I got bit confusing....that sdavg is 9.08 above sell hdfc buy kotak how did when I am using this in diff level more confusing part and it destroys all understanding concept please explain
Need your suggestion. I have done a short strangle for ITC 190PE and 240CE for July expiry. Can I take it to the last day of expiry? When should I ideally square off?
can someone explain me how to hold future that long as he says i think we can only have 3 months futures right ? how is he managing that. ps: wish he responds else please someone educate me on this.
Total lot size would be better. For example a share trading at rs. 500 with lot of 1000 shares would be similar to a share trading at rs. 250 with lot of 2000 shares. Total lot size would be rs. 500000 in both.
You are a genius.And also a good person.Even as a experienced trader, I benefitted from ur videos immensely.
Thks a lot.
Very good learning video.. It would be gr8 in future.. If you could make a video on actual trade you took on this strategy.. So that we can relate theory & practical..
Gr8 content guys..
Kapil you sound apt.
I have been in the markets for a long time and trades stocks and sell options. I learnt quite a few things from this videos and on days when I learn one new thing (which is seldom) it is a good and on a day like this when I learnt quite a few things it is a wonderful day. Thanks for sharing your knowledge freely and being humble. My prayers are that you find much success. God bless and keep up the good work!
What could be done in a very simplistic way ( charting and not statistical arbitrage)to what you're explaining , is to plot the Ratio( Stock 1/ Stock 2 ) or spread chart on Tradingview and plot a 200 period Bollinger band. As per the logic, the period would represent the lookback period and the bands would be +/- 2SD, and as your concept, short the spread at the top band and long the spread at the lower band. This however is not the ideal way of doing it as, typically and not in every case , the band once breached will cause a further expansion in the same direction and will incur HEAVY losses for sometimes months at a time, so placing stop losses (huge) on ratio or time is needed . But this expansion will then also be factored in while downloading historical data (although the absolute closing prices remain same) and calculating the ratio of the entire data set. So in hindsight it would be easier to pick trades but at the time , it's a little trickier than this.
Correct me if im wrong, just my input here
ನಿಂದಕರಿರಬೇಕು... Solution is SONIC resonance intraday stock screener by CA NAVEEN KUMAR😊😊
Bollinger band is seen for a particular stock alone in isolation here you are looking at a pair
@@optionables I trade the ratio and can be plotted for a ratio (spread) of two stocks on TradingView
@nilesh you sound very confident.
I want to thank optionable and you for the insight.... if I may add ; when the ratios are plotted on TV, considering this is a mean reverting strategy it would be easier if one uses VWAP as the mean reference for making decisions on the pairs.
saket, one more great stuff from you guys.. a lot of youtubers talk about this but never explain what, why & how.. appreciate your effort, great going and keep educating..
Absolutely great video..what a dedication and presentation...
I really appreciate your efforts to help us... 🙏👍
This is fantastic, looks like you guys were born with a love for number:-).
I guess you need to calculate rolling mean instead of absolute mean while backtesting and picking entries, because as per your selection of trade on the said day, the mean at that point of time having calculated with the available data till that point would differ from calculating backwards from today.
Invest in smallcase guys, my one Smallcase giving 48% in 48 days
Yes Nilesh. You are correct. Diff to calculate.
not interested in pair trading but I liked the video just because of the way you explain...awsome
Thank you sir
This is the best video about pair trading in you tube.. Good Job.. great explanation
Saketh, you are a pure genius
It would be great, if u can giude us on considering other parameters like "correlation co-efficient/z-score" etc to chose a pair for pair trading.
It would definitely help us in taking better pair trading decision with more confidence. Thanks in advance.
Cointegration
Sir it would have been great if he told more about that.
Hats-Off to you Mr.Saketh for your great effort of Statistical Analysis on stocks.
Thank you sir
X'llent presentation. God bless u.
Really what a amazing observation hats off to you dude that you share all this free
Interesting strategy. I haven't understood why the strategy is holding position till the ratio reaches average rather than squaring off the position once the ratio reaches into the range of (Avg +/- 2x SD).
I think he should be waiting for trading stoploss.
Therefore it would give a good trade in hindsight , but as on day it may cause the ratio to only diverge as in the shorter term , the stronger stock would outperform
Yes agree that's why we have mentioned not pick similar size companies with similar growth rate for 3years only
i was searching for this🤗❤️
True bro. Thanks for info 😀
Nice one dear..
I am a beginner and your contents are pretty useful and very clear. Thanks 👍
According to backrest it is time consuming trade held for months problem in futures will be roll over cost and premium paid that will take away all your profits
Can you explain what will be cost of rollover? Except for 20 rs brokerage and taxes
@@optionables first of all you know that futures buying requires premium to pay some 0.5-1.0 % extra on underlying asset value which will become equal to spot on every expiry means you have to pay the premium extra cost, assuming one trade is held for 8 months that's 8% vanished
That's where you have missed a point.
Both futures will be at premium. You will be shorting one and buying one more. So when you buy one at premium and short one kore at premium. They more or less offset each other
Such a scientific approach to stock market which the usual traders are not aware of... Great content!!!
Please bring more such videos...
Is there any strategy anywhere which can give a return of 3-5% per day, with high probability?
Please share such strategies...
I have never come across such a strategy anywhere. I am really surprised that we can literally do any kind of trade in the market if we apply proper logic.
Thanks for this video guys. Looking forward for more such secrets, which only the big guys seem to be knowing.
you are genuine person
Last 5 years tcs and infy data. Infy sell and tcs buy for the past one month. It is above 2SD from 16/06
Nice bro your contents are completely amazing 👍
I liked this idea to do pair trading but aint the backtesting you did incorrect. shouldn't the MA and STDEV be moving. You calculated MA and STDEV past 5 yrs....and then backtesting past data on this moving avg and std rather than calculating ma and stdev on that day on whicj you took trade. am I missing something?
Good info: One query. You have consider full data (5 years) for Average and standard deviation. If some one takes only 2 years of data, would der be a difference in Average and SD.?
Also what stoploss would u suggest?
He will end in loss
Yes. It will change completely
Very useful mr saketh thank you
@@user-tj8gz7im2f thank you
Very nice concept to take a trade.
Could you teach us excel sheet calculation step by step. In this video it preety much confusion of calculations.
In pair trading correlated currency pairs(say AUD/USD & NZD/USD) do you compare RSI value & sell overpriced pair & buy the weaker? OR do you compare CCI of each pair? Do you suggest using cross currencies as pair trades(eg EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY)? On 4H chart sum up RSI 3, RSI 7,RSI 14, & compare added value on each pair. Thank you.
After calculations which stock should buy and which stock should sell
What happens if any one of the stock gives dividend/split/bonus/any corporate actions during the analysis days/period, will it affect the analogy, please help, clarifying this
I think lot size also matters here... Please let me know how to match this..
Thank you for the video As you told 5/3/2020 Buy HDFC , Sell Kotak , now The average adjusted after 4 months(16/07/202), is it possible to hold FUT postions for 4months?
Sir you can roll over the futures on the expiry day..u do tht buy closing all the positions of that month and making fresh positions in the next month futures..u Can also refer to other videos on RUclips to understand how to do roll over..
Sir, can I take data from 1 minutes chart and do intraday pair trade
Classy video. Thanks
Bhai jo din entry marni hai uske baad wale dino ka data ka istemaal mean n sd nikalne me nahi kr sakte na?
How do we know which stock to go long and which stock to go short based on the ratios? lets say if a stock close ratio has fallen below the 2SD and now how will I know which stock to short and which stock to go long
if the ratio has gone down then it must come up to the average. We have two stocks one which is the numerator in finding the ratio and another which is the denominator, like here HDFC bank was the numerator and Kotak was the denominator. In order for the ratio to go up three things can happen, the numerator can go up while denominator remains the same, the denominator goes down while the numerator remains the same or both the numerator goes up and denominator comes down. So, the ideal trade is to buy the numerator and sell the denominator. In this example it translated to buying HDFC bank and selling Kotak Bank.
@@user-tj8gz7im2f I am pretty sure this is a scam. Be aware.
@@AbhishekKumar-fq7ch yes it definitely is thats why its spamming the comment section
How to check sd everyday. Lot sizes are diff. What to do.
These are some good pairs in my opinion-
1. Hdfc - hdfc bank
2. Bajaj finance- Bajaj Finserv
3. Manappuram finance- Muthoot Finance
4. PFC - REC
5. ACC - Ambuja
6. Hdfc bank - Kotak Bank
7. TCS - INFOSYS
Nowadays Bajaj finance- Bajaj Finserv and TCS - INFOSYS not moving pair together and also avoid hdfcbank and kotak
Hi . Have u done a sensitivity analysis of overall returns vs stop loss? I mean would the returns be substantially different if i take a 25% stop loss target vis a vis a 30% target?
Lovely bro
Beauty of math!!
മുടിയൊക്കെ വെട്ടി സുന്ദര കുട്ടപ്പൻ ആയിട്ടുണ്ടല്ലോ bro ♥️
Very nice video. Just one question. As per the example provided, it takes more than 3months to reach the mean SD. Is it possible to buy/sell futures with more than 3months expiry?
Sir you can roll over the futures on the expiry day..u do tht buy closing all the positions of that month and making fresh positions in the next month futures..u Can also refer to other videos on RUclips to understand how to do roll over..
Keep learning videos for weekend and upload live trading day video regular.
Great achievement.... 🥃
Should we take monthly expiry Fut or more than that?
Excellent 👍
Great effort
what happens when any stock of pair touches UC or LC, or companies goes bankrupt like scenarios,
5 Years Historical data
Avg Ratio share Price (INFY/TCS): 0.375
Std D of Avg. : 0.036
Avg+2 x std D : 0.446
Avg-2 x std D : 0.303
So does it mean "Sell Infy at 1574 and Buy TCS at 3380" ....pls suggest...
Above 2SD from 16/06 dont know when it will come to mean
Great content 👍
Hi Saketh , very nicely explained .Thanks a Lot. Further just wanna ask What are some more examples for pair trading listed on NSE Futures?
I got bit confusing....that sdavg is 9.08 above sell hdfc buy kotak how did when I am using this in diff level more confusing part and it destroys all understanding concept please explain
@@user-tj8gz7im2f dai fraud thayoli
Thank u sir🙏
Need your suggestion. I have done a short strangle for ITC 190PE and 240CE for July expiry. Can I take it to the last day of expiry? When should I ideally square off?
Keep it
Which broker allowing to sell far otm options
@@user-tj8gz7im2f duplicate
Pls make a video in hindi of this concept
Awesome 👍✌️
Make a video on finnifty and banknifty pair trading in fno
Love it
can someone explain me how to hold future that long as he says i think we can only have 3 months futures right ? how is he managing that.
ps: wish he responds else please someone educate me on this.
I think we have to also consider the number of shares present in a single lot. HDFC Bank have 550 where as Kotak have 400.
Total lot size would be better.
For example a share trading at rs. 500 with lot of 1000 shares would be similar to a share trading at rs. 250 with lot of 2000 shares. Total lot size would be rs. 500000 in both.
Dates are not available in the excel file
Your all course are not available at your website when i reach website. When it will upload
About cryptocurrency make a video
I am fairly new to markets , where should i learn everything from.
~>. Contact him directly on WhatsApp for guidance
@@ruthcochran186 where is his number?
Do we have to update the data daily?
Good content 😘😘😘
can this be done for forex pairs?
Hi, I tried to call you but not respond. Also I sent email to you. Can you please respond.
How do you guys learn about these strategies?
Nice content
PLEASE MAKE A VIDEO ON UR BROKER FIRSTOCK, CHARGES, MARHIN, COLLATERAL %, WILL THEY ALLOW FAR OTM BUYING FOR HEDGING ON ALL DAYS UNLIKE ZERODHA?
Are u guys from.karnataka?
Hi Saket, Is it possible to give some 10-15 pairs that we can track are valid ones.
1. Hdfc - hdfc bank
2. Bajaj finance- Bajaj Finserv
3. Manappuram finance- Muthoot Finance
4. PFC - REC
5. ACC - Ambuja
6. Hdfc bank - Kotak Bank
7. TCS - INFOSYS
Watch good investment ideas, Learn With Stock Lovers ..
Lot size must be considered right eg TCS 300 infy 600
Yes contract value should be same
Hey,
What would be the stopLoss in this strat?
Average would be your stop loss eventually
Can You Please Share Excel Sheet
Please make a video on IV AND OI
is it possible intraday basis ?
@@user-tj8gz7im2f fake
Saketh squad ❤️
Hi Saket, can you share the excel file. thanks for this vidoe. its really helpful.
Had given a like even before watching the video but was disappointed.tell us how do we select the pair
You havent given the names of such 10 pairs.
Pehli bar ese statistics base per video dekhi
Pr isme balance hone me ratio me time lagega or rollover cost deni pdhegi
There is no roll over cost. You will be buying one and selling one: both will be in premium
@@optionables sorry
You are right
Tell me to open a new account in the stock market.
Can u share ur today’s order book
Look 4 good Investment ideas, learn with Stock lovers
Do u hv telegram link
Sir hindi me baat kia karo plz kuch hame bhi samajh aa jaye 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄
I want to learn stockmarketing and Intraday trading.
Please any one will help
Please optionables
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Today's p&l
sir can u please share your valuable information in hindi
Pls make video in hindi also
Currently HDFC BK/ KOTAK=1500/1730=0.867+0.5+0.5
=~0.96
So short HDFC BK |||ly buy KOTAK.
Sir don't add sd to current ratio.
Just focus on ratio only
Sir please upload videos in telugu channel
Sonic resonance intraday stock screener by CA NAVEEN KUMAR 😊😊
Hi ji