Great video. Even if we go into a deep recession, and a stock market crash, the labor shortage created by the retiring baby boomers is likely to keep unemployment below 7%. Retirees moving to Charleston are more likely to be cash buyers.
Some data would give insight: 1. What % of homes in metro area are owner occupied versus investment or 2nd homes. 2. Nationally, nearly 40% of all home are owned outright. These people are not incentivized by a low locked in mortgage to hold the property. What % of homes in the CHS metro area are owned outright? 3. How are rents in the metro area trending? Are more single family homes coming onto the rental market? How many new rental units are coming onto the market? I'm one of those buyers sitting on the sideline until I get a clearer sense of the market. While I can't see a total collapse, even a return to early 2021 prices would be significant. Bottomline, there is more downside risk to move on a home today than possible upside to be gained.
Bill - being a realtor you should share actual Charleston metro area data. While we don’t know what will happen in the market, you have the ability to show us what HAS happened in it with regards to inventory (months of supply), % up/down in new listings, increase/decrease in pending sales, etc. These analytics would bring value to your audience and channel.
Thank you so much for your input. I don’t disagree with you, however I feel that if every video I did was just regurgitating stats from the MLS, people get bored really quickly…and frankly I get bored recording and editing them. What I try and do is add them in when needed into the context of the video and not release a bunch of boring “[insert month] market update” videos…because no one would watch them.
"While we don’t know what will happen in the market" then you are an idiot, a child could tell you it's going down, how much is anybody's guess, idiot.
@@irishman3375 put down the whiskey bottle and realize a large portion of what we are seeing now is seasonality. No one knows when the fed will pivot causing rates to go back down which will send demand right back up and prices with it. Idiot. Spring time will be very telling.
Think you've got the right of it (barring a full blown depression). Slight oversupply resulting in 10% - 20% decline in pricing. Also, results will vary based on geography.
Hey Bill! Local Summerville videographer / past agent here! Great video and great insights on the current and future state of our crazy market! My wife and I bought in early 2021 with a 2.7% rate....we have no reason to sell but we have seen our value of our home go way up and then start leveling back out here in the last few months. Curious to see where things fall next year and in 2024.
The best way to avoid making mistakes like Harry is to call Bill Olson and get him on your team. Personally, we have used him and of course it was successful. It’s amazing what can happen when you gently touch that subscribe button.
Really good explanation of the situation, Bill. I think “unstable” might be another word for the dynamic. Sounds like what matters is the relationship between the change in supply and demand and depending on unknown factors lots of different outcomes could happen. Thanks! Gently tapped.
We purchased before the rate hikes got out of control. We are in the myrtle beach area and one thing I am seeing is a lot of new homes for sale on Facebook etc. this was something I have not seen in about 18 months prior to august. We are at 4% and we waited almost a year for the builder to finish the house. If they finished in fall of 2021, like they said, we would have been in the 3% area. You are correct. We are going to ride this out and have no need to sell and are safe from rate hikes. We did get nailed with a arm in the 2008 mess but we’re lucky enough to sell and break even. I agree with most of what you are saying but I do think supply will increase a little. The economy is in big trouble no matter what the White House says. The layoffs have started with meta, twitter, Disney, ford and intel and cisco have announced layoffs. The fed will continue to raise rates well into next year as well. It is now to late to refinance for a lower rate and lenders are reporting that most refinance scores are in the high 700s. Buckle up!
4% is still really good. We just purchased with a 5.5% last month. It hurt giving up our low mortgage rate but we made a quality of life move for the family, which is worth the price to me. I guess I am the opposite of what I talked about in the video, right? Anyways, it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few months to a year. Charleston was, and still is, a big destination for so many different types of people at different phases of life, that while our demand will falter, it could still stay above national averages. To see what happens with the supply will be the interesting thing. I assure you this…I’ll keep making videos so you can keep track of it all as long as you and everyone else keep watching them.
Great video. Even if we go into a deep recession, and a stock market crash, the labor shortage created by the retiring baby boomers is likely to keep unemployment below 7%. Retirees moving to Charleston are more likely to be cash buyers.
Some data would give insight:
1. What % of homes in metro area are owner occupied versus investment or 2nd homes.
2. Nationally, nearly 40% of all home are owned outright. These people are not incentivized by a low locked in mortgage to hold the property. What % of homes in the CHS metro area are owned outright?
3. How are rents in the metro area trending? Are more single family homes coming onto the rental market? How many new rental units are coming onto the market?
I'm one of those buyers sitting on the sideline until I get a clearer sense of the market. While I can't see a total collapse, even a return to early 2021 prices would be significant. Bottomline, there is more downside risk to move on a home today than possible upside to be gained.
Bill - being a realtor you should share actual Charleston metro area data. While we don’t know what will happen in the market, you have the ability to show us what HAS happened in it with regards to inventory (months of supply), % up/down in new listings, increase/decrease in pending sales, etc.
These analytics would bring value to your audience and channel.
Thank you so much for your input. I don’t disagree with you, however I feel that if every video I did was just regurgitating stats from the MLS, people get bored really quickly…and frankly I get bored recording and editing them. What I try and do is add them in when needed into the context of the video and not release a bunch of boring “[insert month] market update” videos…because no one would watch them.
"While we don’t know what will happen in the market" then you are an idiot, a child could tell you it's going down, how much is anybody's guess, idiot.
@@irishman3375 put down the whiskey bottle and realize a large portion of what we are seeing now is seasonality. No one knows when the fed will pivot causing rates to go back down which will send demand right back up and prices with it. Idiot.
Spring time will be very telling.
Think you've got the right of it (barring a full blown depression). Slight oversupply resulting in 10% - 20% decline in pricing. Also, results will vary based on geography.
11/27/22 Viewing: I'm watching it now. Loving it!
Glad you loved it!
Hey Bill! Local Summerville videographer / past agent here!
Great video and great insights on the current and future state of our crazy market! My wife and I bought in early 2021 with a 2.7% rate....we have no reason to sell but we have seen our value of our home go way up and then start leveling back out here in the last few months. Curious to see where things fall next year and in 2024.
Hey Will. Great videos to you as well. Thanks for watching!
That's not what caused the Housing Bubble of 2008 smh
Please enlighten us
The best way to avoid making mistakes like Harry is to call Bill Olson and get him on your team. Personally, we have used him and of course it was successful. It’s amazing what can happen when you gently touch that subscribe button.
😂😂
Gently caressing that subscribe. Lol
Really good explanation of the situation, Bill. I think “unstable” might be another word for the dynamic. Sounds like what matters is the relationship between the change in supply and demand and depending on unknown factors lots of different outcomes could happen. Thanks! Gently tapped.
We purchased before the rate hikes got out of control. We are in the myrtle beach area and one thing I am seeing is a lot of new homes for sale on Facebook etc. this was something I have not seen in about 18 months prior to august. We are at 4% and we waited almost a year for the builder to finish the house. If they finished in fall of 2021, like they said, we would have been in the 3% area. You are correct. We are going to ride this out and have no need to sell and are safe from rate hikes. We did get nailed with a arm in the 2008 mess but we’re lucky enough to sell and break even. I agree with most of what you are saying but I do think supply will increase a little. The economy is in big trouble no matter what the White House says. The layoffs have started with meta, twitter, Disney, ford and intel and cisco have announced layoffs. The fed will continue to raise rates well into next year as well. It is now to late to refinance for a lower rate and lenders are reporting that most refinance scores are in the high 700s. Buckle up!
4% is still really good. We just purchased with a 5.5% last month. It hurt giving up our low mortgage rate but we made a quality of life move for the family, which is worth the price to me. I guess I am the opposite of what I talked about in the video, right? Anyways, it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few months to a year. Charleston was, and still is, a big destination for so many different types of people at different phases of life, that while our demand will falter, it could still stay above national averages. To see what happens with the supply will be the interesting thing. I assure you this…I’ll keep making videos so you can keep track of it all as long as you and everyone else keep watching them.