If only you understood how FED UP I am with the sponsored placements mid-video. I actually do fast-forward past them. Please! I am of the firm belief there are ways to get just as much, if not more revenue from your channel without disrupting tbe viewing experience so horribly.
To me it's easier to go in steps from somewhere I understand everytime I want to get a intuitive sense. I have a intuitive sense of 1000, also of a Million. Then it's a matter of picturing 1000 Million. It works for me, at least.
@@meteorknight999they stole more than they gave in aid so it's not a big deal. Millions of lives destroyed and 3 trillion$ of oil stolen from Iraq on the pretext of there being weapons of mass destruction which they later admitted doesn't exist.
Unless there is severe deflation, people do not delay purchases due to deflation only. The reason the Japanese didn't purchase has less to do with deflation but to do with economic sentiment. For example for decades the price of electronics have been falling and the quality improving, yet people still buy electronics instead of waiting for the end game. So it is not deflation that central banks should worry about but consumer sentiment, do consumers feel that they will have jobs, will the future be better, no one really cares if prices slightly go down or up in the short term. Deflation isn't the problem, it is demographics, there wasn't enough demand for the supply. Also productivity in Japan which was a world leader became a laggard during the lost decades.
Exactly. I think this "2% inflation good" talk is just an excuse to print money which means stealing savings of the commoners. When new money is printed, first receivers of that money can buy things at yet-to-rise prices. By the time new money trickles down to the common folk, prices have already risen as the new money was spreading in the markets. In short, printing money is simply wealth redistribution from bottom to the top.
Problem with deflation when it is produced by central bank interest rate manipulation is that it funnels money from those in debt to lenders(rich). So first the rich get free money and then after when the working people lose their jobs they are forced to sell their houses at distress prices. Then the rich buy the houses cheap and central bankers pat themselves on the back for winning the inflation. End result of this is that working people end up paying bigger portion of their wages for mortgage or rent so there is less to spend on goods and services. Less demand means the companies that produce stuff start firing people and the economy keeps circling down the drain. The rich that got their free lunch don't spent their newly gained money back to real economy on goods and services. Instead the keep playing the "chair game" with stocks, real estate and other assets.
You are right. Deflation stopping people from living their lives, is one of many economic theory factoids. If you need a new smart phone/place to live/food to eat/holiday/book to read/clothes to wear/etc, then you're not going to wait 10 years in the hope that deflation stops.
+1, it's surprising how many economists believe in this nonsense. You buy things when you need them. You're not going to postpone your restaurant meal or birthday present or vehicle purchase etc because there's some chance the price might decline slightly in future.
At 23:41, the Patrick Boyle AI CGI had a glitch. I knew the knowledge of rap news and the lack of blinking couldn't have been the work of an ordinary human.
The Japanese economy is an interesting topic looking in, but absolutely terrifying when you live here. Everything has gotten more expensive and salaries aren't keeping up despite what the government hopes will happen. With housing prices rising, living in Tokyo is going to become more and more difficult.
Good topic, I live in Japan outside Tokyo and things are not so promising here. Prices are up. Salaries are low. The shelves are not as stocked as they once were. The new trucking law has put a crimp in the logistics chain too. The main issue with Japan as I see it is the tendency to defer to the aging generation to make the final decision. Its both stultifying and the elderly have very little understanding about how the modern world truly works. If I had to guess I think we see 200 yen to the USD before we see 100 yen to the USD. Hopefully I am wrong.
I live in Japan too but I don’t think 200 yen will happen. As Patrick describes, increasing wages are the key to improvement but that change isn’t instant.
I just sold my multi-million dollar companies in America to move to Japan and work here.. Real businessmen doesn't play in the waters of today, they look 3 to 5 years ahead and I'm all in on Japan.
@@mennovanlavieren3885 "Most people" are not businessmen, that is what he was talking about. Go for it, Ryan! The situation of "most people" will be better if you do something useful for the world.
It's a testament to just how warped the global financial system has become as even as someone steeped in finance & trading for 10+ years my first question when I read this title was... ""$60 billion, is that a lot?"
Very informative & fascinating (as always). I've read that economies are categorized into four types: Developed. Developing, Argentina & Japan. This seems to fit that assessment.
A better idea for the BOJ is to have a volatility target (e.g. 3 to 5 stdev) in order to discourage leveraged bets and force speculators to liquidate positions
Switzerland tried the same thing but the other way around (making sure the Swiss Franc isn’t too strong against the Euro) and had to give up. The problem wasn‘t even that it became too expensive, our federal bank just wasn‘t able to pump enough money into the system while staying within the rules. They would have had to just straight up buy large European companies to have a large enough effect but they aren‘t allowed to do that. II wonder if Japan will run into similar limitations.
If you believe the other way around is a problem it's easy to solve because the problem natually creates resources to throw at solving the problem. Your currency is strong and thus if you want to print currency you can sell it at above the value you've marked for the currency until it's resolved, + at the same time, labour from elsewhere is cheaper so there will be economical pressures encouraging imports. I haven't heard of the story, but I assume the rules were made to limit price inflation within the country from the artificial interference.
Saying they “spent” that money to support the yen gives the impression that that money is gone when in reality it’s like if they bought gold. There’s no loss unless the value of what they bought retreats and then a 100% loss would be unlikely.
That is a wrong comparison. Japan can always print more yen if needed but it cannot print more dollars. So, spending precious dollars to buy back yen that you can always print anyway is not a sustainable strategy in the long term.
I have an old friend who speaks Japanese and teaches English in Japan. He says that the "service industries" in Japan is always in flux these days. Restaurants and cafes open one week and close two weeks later. A lot of young people who enter the work force via these jobs are suffering.
The yen has been at a very big discount for the last few years with no end in sight and almost no one talks about it. I regularly buy product from japan and travel a few times a year and it's really wild how far usd goes now. I find myself buying thing just because everything is basically 20% off from what it was a few years ago. Like many options to sit down lunch and a beer for 10$.
FK that.. move the family here, sitting on a bunch of silver and dollars here with a pretty good yen stack and Japanese equities stack let alone crypto.. this is the only place in the world I want to be right now. I take the family out for wagyu all five of us and my tab is like 50 bucks USD all in with drinks.
@@ryanshaw4250 no one in the world wants to admit it but Japan is performing incredibly well by objective metrics. unfortunately the one downside of having to learn Japanese offsets all the upside
@@FullLengthInterstates it’s acutely much easier to speak than english and grammatically it’s far more straight forward. Writing is another story and there are very few people who will be willing to help you work through your broken Japanese.
Great background for this video. Bonus points if you are actually on a sofa backed to a window in an office in a large metropolitan city.EDIT: you know, one way you could increase your rap street cred is a video on the business of Cannabis(especially with the US rescheduling)
Great video! Would love to see an updated video on US debt itself and the international demand for USD. I feel like so much of the push for the gold standard and/or cryptocurrency is tied to a misunderstanding of US debt, institutional investors, currency creation (ex: creation through bank lending vs 'printing.'), etc.
Sorry Patrick but you ignored the elephant in the middle of the room: dramatic population decline. This explains just about everything that is going wrong in Japan. It also explains why no amount of government/monetary intervention will work. What is happening now in Japan will happen everywhere in the western soon.
I believe the belief is that various AI products will eliminate so many jobs that having a declining population is a good thing unless you’re producing labor intensive goods (food). I think a number of influencial entities are planning for this type of future.
No, it will not in the West. 1. The West will let in immigrants. 2. The West will experiment until it arrests the decline in births, cheap housing, free child care, credits for parents staying at home. 3. eventually profits in the economy will explode when automation makes the Industrial revolution look like a child's plaything. Social unrest in The West always leads to mini revolutions.
Aw shucks, so much better to have a big population living on the streets half dead sacking stores to self medicate with veterinary anesthethics. Give San Bernardino my regards !
Not necessarily. Older people tend to make more money so they can spend a little, while younger people spend little except on a few large purchases made with borrowed money. Not sure how the math works out
There are offsetting factors: large increases in productivity due to AI will benefit smaller populations. It is easy to reduce capacity in many cases, so societal costs can follow societal needs. But it does seem, from a global market sense, than being a front runner of population reduction is possibly troubling.
And a country where they work their young to death, sending them to the lithium mines where they need to endure dangerous conditions mining that lithium.
I wonder how many soviet factory owners desperately tried to explain the concept of an output gap to comrade Stalin, as if their life depended on it...
Love you talks. I put them on to go to bed. I legit love it. My wife thinks Im an idiot. " You always end up snoring then waking up..then snoring." Dunno mate. Its a thing now. Keep er up.
"You always end up snoring then waking up..then snoring." Are you waking up because of the snoring? If so, it might make sense to consider using e.g. a CPAP device or some other similar remedy.
Living in Japan 32 years now. I'm actually poorer now then when I arrived as a young man. Shit is expensive and wages make Cambodia look like New York. One thing you didn't touch on was the problem of "Shrinkflation" Japanese companies are reluctant to increase prices so they quietly decrease the size and amount of products in their packages. You see this in Restaurants too with smaller portions. Sucks, but we still have national health Insurance, clean and safe infrastructure, a polite population, beautiful women and a really cool culture. So there is that.
@@HughJass-jv2lt Yeah, I know. I was there. I drove emergency supplies to Tohoku as a volunteer. I saw the reactor building blow up in real time. I'm aware of the radiation leaking into the seawater. I'm also aware that levels haven't affected local produce or drinking water. Because you know SCIENCE. Unlike you I try not to believe every sensationalist thing I see online. Run along now.
I feel like people who don’t get economics or haven’t lived in a stagnant country don’t understand how big of a deal lack of improvement is. But to the “become an emerging market” thing at the end - I think people with a low-medium amount of Econ knowledge can overplay the importance of indicators like GDP growth - and ignore the fact that it is in the grand scheme of things 1) super wealthy, 2) super Educated 3) super strong institutions 4) super safe and stable. 3 decades of stagnation sucks but let’s not forget that while there are some societal and economic issues, Japan’s absolutely one of the best countries to live or do business in by many measures. And they have an important enough location that if stuff ever got really bad - some western friends would definitely help out in exchange for continued use of some military airstrips.
High GDP, education and stability alone are not enough to make a market (as opposed to a country) "developed". MSCI still consider South Korea an emerging market even though it is obviously a highly developed country. Things like how truly "free" a country's exchange rates are or how easy it is for foreigners to buy stock matter a lot. This classification matters because trillions of dollars of money is held in passive funds tracking the MSCI Developed World Index, meaning an upgrade or downgrade in status would force these funds to buy or sell billions of dollars of stocks from that country.
@@themindgarage8938 Re: South Korea there developed in the spirit of the word - MSCI has said they meet the criteria other than ease of transacting and 24/7 FX trading. In terms of Japan - yeah agree there’s more to it - but they’ve been a mature developed economy as long as most of Europe. central bank has a decent ability to control monetary policy, and The YEN is one of the most liquid currencies in the world - so they’re not getting bumped any time soon. Interestingly ETFs are a small part of the picture (only 10% AUM in the US). What matters is actively managed institutional money, ($30T AUM in the US alone). They use classifications to an extent, but people managing billions are smart enough to adjust. don’t think it would have the enormous effect you’re imagining. it would be a net inflow (speaking to korea), but EM ETFs and institutional allocations have grown a lot. - msci would signal well in advance to allow gradual rebalancing. Japan and korea would both be less impacted vs many countries since their chaebols / conglomerates are prominent and receive significant analyst / investor attention.
this is very important! GDP is a means, not an end. There is a lot of correlation between productivity vs other quality of life indicators, but many countries have figured out you can net improve quality of life by giving up some GDP.
Japans national wealth is 29 Trillion dollars plus Japans Stock Market is the 2 largest in the world, almost the size like the EU. Japan isn’t what most people think, it’s actually a huge sleeping 🐻 🎌
I never understood the reasoning behind why deflation is so bad. It sounds like a made up argument. I mean if it were true the opposite also has to be true. Meaning in inflationary period people would spend all their savings to purchase a tv, fridge or whatever because tomorrow it might be more expensive. Which is not the case so why should we apply this logic to only one side of the argument?
@@justinsayin3979 fair enough but there has to be “serious deflation” to justify this reasoning. Saying simply deflation causes all this is painting the wrong picture. Mild deflation around 2-4% (not all the time) will not lead to such tragic economic or behavioral changes.
The issue IIRC in japan it's frowned upon to ask for a higher salary, It's seen as being disrespectful to your boss, furthermore switching employers doesn't work neither since you pretty much start from square 1 and climb up. This doesn't encourage wage growth very much.
How big a role does Japan's trade deficit play a role in the weak Yen? It has finally turned to a surplus this March. Exports driven by the weak Yen, and no longer hindered by Covid/IC shortage, suggests surplus could continue. I remember the persistent surplus in the prior decades was the driving force for the strong Yen... could Japan be heading there again?
Japan's labor is pretty damn cheap nowadays though, especially when calculated per hour worked... It's on the same level as Slovakia and Romania. Japan is a developed country by infrastructure (which was built a long time ago), but a developing country economy-wise.
thats same story. macroecon guys are talking about GDP gap for last 20-30 years. since Paul Krugman wrote liquidity trap paper, thats the only thing they want to talk about when they talk about japanese economy. missing important fact that growing china as super manufacturing giant replacing japan as exporter of industrial goods.
It's true, but you could also argue that China being a low-cost massive hub for manufacturing has been a serious threat since the 90s but still hasn't cut into Japan's exports very deep. As well China's labor costs have risen substantially and many manufacturers are moving to neighboring countries with lower wages so it's not growing its manufacturing base like it was in the 2000s. If anything the danger of cheap Chinese exports seems to have weakened not grown over the last few years. But that's just my opinion
Japans national wealth is 29 Trillion dollars plus Japans Stock Market is the 3 largest in the world, almost the size like the EU. Japan isn’t what most people think, it’s actually a huge sleeping 🐻 🎌
Japan's economy has suffered from prolonged deleveraging since the bursting of the bubble economy boom. Also the shifting of production to other places from export oriented industries, which have the highest productivity and higher wages, has meant that most jobs have been on low productivity services. And due to a cultural quirk it's accepted that employers can generally abuse their employees, this means a high number of hours and low wages per hour. In fact there are indications that although there's a decreasing percentage of working population wages have generally gone down or stagnated. This results in lower demand in the economy, either due to low investment, inability to spend due to having no free time, and low wages and economic insecurity that keeps spending down.
Fascinating insight into Japan's economic maneuvers! The strategic interventions reflect not only the complexity of global finance but also the critical role of policy in stabilizing markets during turbulent times. 👍
They dont wanna to much unbalance economy... Remember that Japanese people like to save but doesnt understand investing.. And the fact they get so much tourist it will make the gap between rich and poor to much and if it to bad, revolution are just right behind it..
Cheap Yen is good when you have a large young population to back it up, but when you're pretty old, it plays differently. Japan is like a retiree who's watching his pension grow lower. At some point, he needs to start selling his assets to avoid starvation because going back into the labor market is not even an option.
The problem is that Japan is shrinking, therefore less taxable youth. Their worry is about government has to spend more on retirement pensions than what they can tax the youth. This on top of the law being too strict AND Japanese youth are on financial choke that they cannot afford a family means the government psyop to "have s3x" as the Shinzo Abe memes and animes put it - fails hard. Also recent studies shows that common people paid more taxes by simply buying at supermarket or commuting than big compamies holding bubble stocks. Which is why government in there is slowly forced to inevitably tax the rich since the economy gap is at its widest right now. They always had the option to tax the rich, but they haven't. Sane people there simply don't want to bring their kids to bear the same unreasonable ballooning taxes and deadend jobs. Its just parental love and common sense in full effect.
I don't know what's worse. As an average Joe from Europe trying to make sense of all this, I have never experienced a situation where the cost of living gets lower with time. Quite the contrary, the cost of living is nearly unbearable. I dream of a deflationary economy and lowering prices that could give me an opportunity to live comfortably without looking for pennies under the sofa cushions. From the point of view of policymakers and bankers, deflation might sound like a bad thing, but from the common folk's point of view, it's actually a good thing. Imagine a housing market so low that everybody could afford to buy a house without a mortgage that surpasses life expectancy.
@@Sosi288 because deflation causes an immediate tightening of credit, which is universally bad for anyone without cash reserves as well as most businesses. Ends up creating an economic situation where a small number of people can buy things cheaply with their now-swollen savings, and everyone else eats shit
23:28 just google structure of Japan government debt and you will find that such a high debt is not a concern as big as it is for Italy or US. I do not think the debt of Japan is a problem for Japan and it is owned by the bank of Japan mainly ... so it's like you owe water to the ocean.
In your description it says that you are a hedge funge manager, university professor and a former investment banker, so I was wondering if this youtube thing is a part time thing you do and maybe if that explains why you seem to take these video in different locations?
Anyone else realized the desync? I don't think many of us did since he's so monotonous anyway.. 😂 Regardless, I'm a returning viewing because of the quality content. Thanks again for the very informative share!
I like how Japan has handled its economics. It's stayed flat for 30 years and the country hasn't imploded, and they're still the 3rd largest economy on the planet. Proof that inflation isn't necessary and infinite growth is simply greed.
this, absolutely... the only reason why the the japanese economy is framed as a basket case (or ignored at best) in mainstream macro-economics is because it provides empirical evidence that the neo-liberal con of the last 5 decades is total BS.
While I entirely agree, it is important to note that a whole lot of Japan’s stability and economy is the direct result and likely dependent upon its best friend: the American consumer .
I'm not sure I agree with the viewpoint given how destructive deflation can be to an economy, and given that Japan has been on the knife edge of deflation for nearly 30 years even after pursuing some of the most extreme monetary policies possible to create inflation. I wouldn't call that a good or healthy economic situation. You can call it greed but steady slow drop in real wages for the working class hurts real people and causes real loss in standard of living
The shops need to set the price tags for about 40% consumers that are pension recipients in order to get the business going and the pension recipients won't get raise here in Japan.
I think the devaluation of the Yen is caused by the extremely conservative approach to business and manufacturing. Japan has been long overtaken by China and other cheaper countries as a leader in electronics, cars and other typical Japanese exports. I remember myself that in the 90s Japan was seen as this futuristic land where great new products were invented like Nintendo's and extremely reliable Toyota's. Where cutting edge media products were developed like the movies Akira and Ghost in the Shell, games like Mario Brothers and Final Fantasy 7. Things like the Shinkansen trains were the ambassadors of a country that was miles ahead. These were all really best in slot products that were quite a bit superior, especially price/quality-wise than anything else available. Now this is no longer the case at all and I think Japan is a very good current day example of the "law of the braking advantage". They were so far ahead that they stuck with doing the same thing for way too long as other countries, especially in the region, caught up. South Korea, Taiwan, China are all doing what Japan does, and often quite a bit cheaper. And because Japan doesnt really seem to be the great innovator any more, the Yen has to decline simply because everything the country does is just worth a lot less than a decade ago. It is a natural result of the market as it is today. Devaluation of the Yen is quite an effective strategy. The only thing they need to do is to add so much value to their imports through their massive manufacturing capabilities, that the profits of their exports make up for it. And, by effectively dropiing their labour costs by 33%, apparantly this is working quite well.
I feel this is natural - if one considers the natural resources available to Japan as compared to China, the current situation seems inevitable. I don’t know if this is a failure of Japan as much as a function of them living on a tiny island while china has thousands of square miles.
For whom exactly? Not for the Alice's, with zero nominal wage growth for 3 decades. It's a K-shaped income distribution, with the asset wealthy riding high, and everyone else heading downwards. Just like the US. That's why talking about GDP is pretty pointless, because you can't spend it.
@@BenP-ue5zn No exactly. Its just a method to keep their huge manufacturing sector relevant. This is not good or bad in itself. However, I do feel that Japan has to keep aiming for more high-end products that are simply too complicated for emerging economies to imitate. Because if they keep doing what they are doing now they unwillingly participate in a race to the bottom where the only thing that matters is who can produce the cheapest. Now Japan could win this race, or at least remain competative. I mean, the Japanese labour force is extremely hard working and disciplined, but the question is if the population is going to put up with effectively becoming ever poorer in order to stay competative.
@@krunkle5136 That's not possible because Japan lacks the natural resources to do this. They tried, but that resulted in defeat in 1945 of course. It would basically mean Japan somehow has to return to a pre-industrial era because they won't have the resources to fuel their factories. Not saying that this is impossible, lots of Western European countries quite successfully abandoned almost all manufacturing, but not by turning their backs on the world, but rather by switching to a service economy. And it really can't go full agricultural or something extreme like that, the population is way to large and urbanized for that. No, the way forward has to be extremely high-end exports facilitated by an extremely highly educated workforce and keep doing this as the rest catches up. Be better than the competition instead of the Chinese model of simply being cheaper through sheer scale. Think California or The Netherlands. If you cant be bigger, you have to be smarter.
Enjoyable, and informative - as usual. Just one thing: Felt compelled to share this. Nice thumbnail. But I don't think it is conducive for people checking the video out when the link appears with the subtext "Get a free 14-day trial of Odoo’s all-in-one business solution and see how it can make your life easier!.." Anyways, always enjoys your content. This was particularly good
The irony is during the bubble in Japan there were accounts of sallared employees making modest wages while their bosses got ridiculously rich, which seems unfair until it was followed by decades of bosses being obliged to pay salaries even though ownership of the company paid little to nothing.
This policy was called eating the rich, the top 1% was forced to uphold the labor market for more than 3 decades, without making any profit. A boss can't even fire an employee in Japan, unless the dude do something utterly terrible.
@@robymaru03 people repeat that second half of your sentence but its not true at all. Its a cultural thing. Yall seem to believe its a law on the books. 20-30 year olds in japan arent shopping for jobs with the mindset that they will be set for life like their parents and grand parents. 1) they are a valuable asset, theres relatively few 2)technology today, especially in japan, makes it super easy for younger workers to move freely through sectors. 3)stop spewing nonsense you hear like a parrot and do some research if it interests you.
@@dogsbecute Japan does have strong labor laws, simultaneously true that youth are in-demand and that they have strong labor laws, there's no contradiction there, for example in university tenured professors are hard to remove even when they don't teach much nor research novel stuff anymore, while young instructors are needed too. Why did you go straight to saying they are parrots and ignorant?
Love the countries that try to manipulate currency prices. Can work for a short time, but usually ends up in serious Bubble or Depression territory. As China is discovering now and Japan discovered when they created decades of the lost years after they created the Bubble Economy of the 80s.
No more (limited) electronics to export and most important no Oil, no Natural Gas and all must be imported. Nothing will change unless they get a high demand export to manufacture.
I think it's a lot down to trade deficits. Japanese dollar reserves in the past had helped prop up the yen even with their low interest rates. JPY tanked when the Ukraine war broke out due to resulting energy and food shocks, sending Japan into record deficits. With the weakened yen Japanese exports and tourism will become more competitive in return and eventually stop the dive, with yen denominated wages increasing, they would come out worse in real terms, but the energy and food shocks aren't permanent either. On a side note, increasing domestic wages while hoping no prices rise is just economic alchemy, but that has never deterred any politician.
@@youbetyourwrasse Maybe you missed the what they actually said. Normal fruit is in GENERAL very expensive in Japan and Korea. Of course the cube watermelon is a vanity product.
The main reason to defend the Yen is to avoid imported inflation. Inflation is imported to Japan mainly through fossil fuel imports, 25% of imports. If Japan invested the billions it's now wasting defending the Yen on renewable energy projects, restarting nuclear reactors and EV subsidies it could have reduced its fossil fuel imports and can just let the Yen fall. Lower Yen is good for exports. The slow adoption of EVs is also due to Toyota reluctance and bet on Hydrogen which has proven a tougher technology.
....did you forget about fukushima in 2011? It was a huge culture shock. It took a decade, plus a worldwide pandemic, but their energy imports have been at this level for a while now. They made a cultural decision to import more fuel from the middle east. It wasnt because they suddenly became inept. They fundamentally dont want more nuclear and are all in on fossil fuels.
As Patrick have said, the act of defending yen is a short term solution, as the volatily caused by irrational market participant could kill the currency immediately. The solution that you speak of is for long term, not to mention it needs much higher capital than buying dollar
@@dogsbecute No they are not. 12 reactors have restarted, 5 passed review and 10 are still under review, Japan suspended 48 reactors by 2013. Nuclear energy reduced LNG imports by 15%. Two Nuclear reactors are under construction. Japan bet on Hydrogen and Hydrogen is taking longer to develop than predicted. The rest of the world is going with Solar, then Wind (wind has some profitability issues right now) and then Hydrogen.
Well, also editing mistake at 23:41. Patrick is also out of focus for most of the video… doesn’t take away from its content. Just shows they wanted to get this video out of the door quickly.
In the US, we have been entitiled to a pay rise every few years. However, that is not the case for the Japan- a cautionary tale of the world. Deflation has been rampant in Japan for years and Japanese firms have invested underwhelmingly measly capital into its workforce and R&D. They rather prioritize the stability of consumser index. That is why certain Japanese products are pegged to their price 20 years ago and salaries have been stagnant.
Hi Patrick, given your previous scepticism on Bitcoin, would appreciate you producing an updated video on your current thoughts on this, given the uptake of this asset by mainstream investment organisations and looking lke this will only increase...many thanks
Ok I realize deflation is bad for business who are kept afloat by "infinite growth" but who starves themselves to wait for food to be less expensive if they have the money to buy it, who is unaffected by fomo if they can afford to be part of the group involved, who never upgrades if they will still have the money to upgrade later even if they do it now? The wealthy (other than food I guess, they are still human), ordinary people have to spend to survive because Capitalism will literally kill you if you don't meet the costs of food, shelter and health both mental and phisical. So would deflation be beneficial in a system that provides UBI? If you still have money to spend then the potential loss of work is not as detrimental and you don't become less valuable due to getting sick or malnourished if you are unable to find work and you are still paying taxes because you are still paying to meet your needs. I'm curious what I'm missing?
Instead of worrying about deflation and resulting job losses, Japan should be like the US and have high interest rates, sustained rising inflation AND layoffs and job cuts.
No. The issue which Japan cannot overcome is its demographic problems. Japan's population is set to fall by one-third by the middle of the century. Contrary to what people think, Japan's economy is so export-driven, and the lion's share of Japan's economic activity is domestic. A falling population means fewer consumers, less revenue, fewer profits, and lower prices as a result. The last 30 years of deflation has mirrored the decline in population and domestic economic activity. Profits are of course up in Japan, but these profits don't come close to overcoming the losses accrued by Japanese companies over the last 4 decades. It would take a number of years of profits of the current levels for Japanese companies to balance their books. The main reason that policymakers want more inflation is that they've painted themselves into a corner with public spending. Japan has an immense public debt, the largest of any developed country, and more than one-fourth of tax revenue is spent on debt-servicing costs. With no inflation to inflate away the value of this debt, the ability of the government to borrow and spend is reduced. In the case of deflation, the value of government debt increases, making it ever less manageable. Japan, like many other countries, is putting the cart in front of the horse, and wondering why it won't move. Companies in Japan will not increase wages when Japan's current demographic problem makes long term losses inevitable.
I still don't buy the idea of modest deflation causing deferred consumption. When did you last think about inflation/deflation before making a purchase? That's right, never, because time preference far surpasses such monetary considerations.
I dont agree. Deflation itself is always good. However the reason could be bad. But it simple wrong to claim that consumers wait to buy when it is deflation. That is simple not how consumers works. They buy for mainly 2 reasons. 1 They want. 2 They need. People will not stop buying the milk today just because it becomes 1 cent cheapier next year, they still need it today and cant wait. Most people buy the latest tech and games etc when it is new and most expensive, they dont wait 1-2 yrs and buy it for half of the price. So sorry you are wrong, like most economist when it comes to this. If anything deflation makes people buy more since their money last longer. But again, the reason to the deflation could be bad. But dont mix up the reason and deflation itself with eachother.
If the japanese central bank, or any other, identify shorting activity by speculators that they can squeeze it sounds like a good move, but if you cant win it or you are just fighting against the reality of the currency's value, it just seems like you are pissing your reserves away. There is something to be said about a small intervention that sets a status quo floor, though. I think in that case a small intervention may be worth the cost depending on your goal, witht the caveat that the central bank needs to exercise control and not keep trying to prop up the currency if the floor doesnt hold.
Japan became an economic power house by selling goods not by monetary voodoo. Monetary policy won't change anything. What to increase wages ? Descrease house rent.
Just raise minimum wages. Well off workers would invest with salary raises not contributing to economy. poor workers would spend. That's the right kind of unavoidable inflation that would push money flow
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If one speaks of the moment against what has transpired the lens becomes a lie. Slight of hand with language is as fine as what!?!
If only you understood how FED UP I am with the sponsored placements mid-video.
I actually do fast-forward past them.
Please! I am of the firm belief there are ways to get just as much, if not more revenue from your channel without disrupting tbe viewing experience so horribly.
So the west has been in deflation for the last 20 years thanks for clearing that up
Interesting that Odo from Star Trek is sponsoring the video.
@@abinadabagbo1603 personally, I'm fed up with entitled people telling creators how to earn an income but perhaps I'm just odd like that.
I'm losing sight of what value a billion dollars has.
To me it's easier to go in steps from somewhere I understand everytime I want to get a intuitive sense.
I have a intuitive sense of 1000, also of a Million. Then it's a matter of picturing 1000 Million. It works for me, at least.
@@Martcaptthat was sarcasm cause how much trillion US is printing for weapons and foreign aid
@@meteorknight999they stole more than they gave in aid so it's not a big deal. Millions of lives destroyed and 3 trillion$ of oil stolen from Iraq on the pretext of there being weapons of mass destruction which they later admitted doesn't exist.
It's about 1/100th of an Elon. Or around 100,000 years of minimum wage. Monopoly money.
@meteorknight999 thats literally nothing compared to the financial packages put out by Trump and Biden in the trillons each
As a 26 year old, I’m concerned by how much I love listening to Pat on quiet weekends instead of going out an making terrible life choices
As a 59 year old, I'm concerned by how much I want a poster of Mr Boyle on my bedroom wall. :D
Wise choice , commented from a 38 yr old
@@youbetyourwrassenothing to be ashamed of, whether it’s due to you liking his content or you finally coming out of the closet 😂
As a 40 year old, I approve this message.
Don't worry, watching RUclips is already a terrible life choice.
I never even knew that there WAS a Japanese Diddy. Thanks for the transpacific rap news, Patrick!
This is my favorite rap news channel!!
No Diddy.
You know it’s bad when people break out the Ancient Greek myths as an analog for your strategy.
It's become a tale.
Dark tie and a big city background!
This video must be super important!
moby is his stunt double
@@Fanta.... Wait has anyone seen Moby and Patrick in the same room?
Unless there is severe deflation, people do not delay purchases due to deflation only. The reason the Japanese didn't purchase has less to do with deflation but to do with economic sentiment. For example for decades the price of electronics have been falling and the quality improving, yet people still buy electronics instead of waiting for the end game. So it is not deflation that central banks should worry about but consumer sentiment, do consumers feel that they will have jobs, will the future be better, no one really cares if prices slightly go down or up in the short term. Deflation isn't the problem, it is demographics, there wasn't enough demand for the supply. Also productivity in Japan which was a world leader became a laggard during the lost decades.
Exactly. I think this "2% inflation good" talk is just an excuse to print money which means stealing savings of the commoners. When new money is printed, first receivers of that money can buy things at yet-to-rise prices. By the time new money trickles down to the common folk, prices have already risen as the new money was spreading in the markets. In short, printing money is simply wealth redistribution from bottom to the top.
Problem with deflation when it is produced by central bank interest rate manipulation is that it funnels money from those in debt to lenders(rich). So first the rich get free money and then after when the working people lose their jobs they are forced to sell their houses at distress prices. Then the rich buy the houses cheap and central bankers pat themselves on the back for winning the inflation.
End result of this is that working people end up paying bigger portion of their wages for mortgage or rent so there is less to spend on goods and services. Less demand means the companies that produce stuff start firing people and the economy keeps circling down the drain. The rich that got their free lunch don't spent their newly gained money back to real economy on goods and services. Instead the keep playing the "chair game" with stocks, real estate and other assets.
Also high debt and deflation is a terrible duo
You are right. Deflation stopping people from living their lives, is one of many economic theory factoids. If you need a new smart phone/place to live/food to eat/holiday/book to read/clothes to wear/etc, then you're not going to wait 10 years in the hope that deflation stops.
+1, it's surprising how many economists believe in this nonsense. You buy things when you need them. You're not going to postpone your restaurant meal or birthday present or vehicle purchase etc because there's some chance the price might decline slightly in future.
At 23:41, the Patrick Boyle AI CGI had a glitch. I knew the knowledge of rap news and the lack of blinking couldn't have been the work of an ordinary human.
def freaked me out lol.
It took me a moment before I understood what was going on. Looks like we got the audio of the next segment over the video of the previous segment.
Just voice over
@@kimberiysmarketstrategy No, the matrix had a glitch.
He IS the green screen!
I just vacationed in Japan. It surprised me how cheap the Yen was.
You're welcome.
The Japanese economy is an interesting topic looking in, but absolutely terrifying when you live here. Everything has gotten more expensive and salaries aren't keeping up despite what the government hopes will happen.
With housing prices rising, living in Tokyo is going to become more and more difficult.
Good topic, I live in Japan outside Tokyo and things are not so promising here. Prices are up. Salaries are low. The shelves are not as stocked as they once were. The new trucking law has put a crimp in the logistics chain too. The main issue with Japan as I see it is the tendency to defer to the aging generation to make the final decision. Its both stultifying and the elderly have very little understanding about how the modern world truly works. If I had to guess I think we see 200 yen to the USD before we see 100 yen to the USD. Hopefully I am wrong.
I live in Japan too but I don’t think 200 yen will happen. As Patrick describes, increasing wages are the key to improvement but that change isn’t instant.
Same in EU.
@@babahanuman83 Maybe you should look at the rate of Yen to Euro too.
The EU is compleat diffrent!
Yeah...policies still tend to favor the elderly because they make up most of the ballots in the elections
It must be tempting for Japanese workers to work abroad now JPY has devalued circa 40% against USD.
Well the work hours in japan has made it better to work abroad anyway
thier gov its screwing them up or the sake of bi rich companies.... very sad
I just sold my multi-million dollar companies in America to move to Japan and work here..
Real businessmen doesn't play in the waters of today, they look 3 to 5 years ahead and I'm all in on Japan.
@@ryanshaw4250But I guess you're not working for a salary, but are starting a new business. That is not the situation of most people.
@@mennovanlavieren3885 "Most people" are not businessmen, that is what he was talking about. Go for it, Ryan! The situation of "most people" will be better if you do something useful for the world.
Still hoping one day Partick makes a yt short that is just rap news. No financial analasys this time just a man in a suit talking about rap beefs.
Patrick your voice always helps me put my daughter to sleep in the car. Thanks for your regular updates about rap music and rap beefs
Must be the strong calming protective dad vibes he gives off
Omg poor daughter 😂
It's a testament to just how warped the global financial system has become as even as someone steeped in finance & trading for 10+ years my first question when I read this title was... ""$60 billion, is that a lot?"
Very informative & fascinating (as always). I've read that economies are categorized into four types: Developed. Developing, Argentina & Japan. This seems to fit that assessment.
A better idea for the BOJ is to have a volatility target (e.g. 3 to 5 stdev) in order to discourage leveraged bets and force speculators to liquidate positions
Switzerland tried the same thing but the other way around (making sure the Swiss Franc isn’t too strong against the Euro) and had to give up.
The problem wasn‘t even that it became too expensive, our federal bank just wasn‘t able to pump enough money into the system while staying within the rules. They would have had to just straight up buy large European companies to have a large enough effect but they aren‘t allowed to do that.
II wonder if Japan will run into similar limitations.
If you believe the other way around is a problem it's easy to solve because the problem natually creates resources to throw at solving the problem. Your currency is strong and thus if you want to print currency you can sell it at above the value you've marked for the currency until it's resolved, + at the same time, labour from elsewhere is cheaper so there will be economical pressures encouraging imports. I haven't heard of the story, but I assume the rules were made to limit price inflation within the country from the artificial interference.
Saying they “spent” that money to support the yen gives the impression that that money is gone when in reality it’s like if they bought gold. There’s no loss unless the value of what they bought retreats and then a 100% loss would be unlikely.
Thank for the explanation
There is a tangible loss there.
Also lol at equating the YEN to gold.
That is a wrong comparison. Japan can always print more yen if needed but it cannot print more dollars. So, spending precious dollars to buy back yen that you can always print anyway is not a sustainable strategy in the long term.
Is it not more like buying a fiver for a tenner. Or a depreciating asset with an appreciating asset?
I have an old friend who speaks Japanese and teaches English in Japan. He says that the "service industries" in Japan is always in flux these days. Restaurants and cafes open one week and close two weeks later.
A lot of young people who enter the work force via these jobs are suffering.
Great topic! I’ve been waiting for this one! Thank you!
Patrick is such a professional. I love how he boosts other channels.
The yen has been at a very big discount for the last few years with no end in sight and almost no one talks about it. I regularly buy product from japan and travel a few times a year and it's really wild how far usd goes now. I find myself buying thing just because everything is basically 20% off from what it was a few years ago. Like many options to sit down lunch and a beer for 10$.
I met a man once that wouldn't buy a PC manufactured anywhere else. Unless it was built in Japan.
FK that.. move the family here, sitting on a bunch of silver and dollars here with a pretty good yen stack and Japanese equities stack let alone crypto.. this is the only place in the world I want to be right now.
I take the family out for wagyu all five of us and my tab is like 50 bucks USD all in with drinks.
@@ryanshaw4250the way to go rn is living in japan getting paid in usd. then enjoy the toro plate for a third what you’d pay in California.
@@ryanshaw4250 no one in the world wants to admit it but Japan is performing incredibly well by objective metrics. unfortunately the one downside of having to learn Japanese offsets all the upside
@@FullLengthInterstates it’s acutely much easier to speak than english and grammatically it’s far more straight forward. Writing is another story and there are very few people who will be willing to help you work through your broken Japanese.
Congress: $60B? That's it? Hold my beer...
Congress: good thing I’m the reserve currency
Fed: Congress? does it set the interest rate?
Congress doesn't have any input on currency
What is this? A bailout for ants?
@USandGlobal Not for Long anymore.... 😝
Great background for this video. Bonus points if you are actually on a sofa backed to a window in an office in a large metropolitan city.EDIT: you know, one way you could increase your rap street cred is a video on the business of Cannabis(especially with the US rescheduling)
USA just checked into the chat...with several trillion.
The dollar is big. Really. Really big.
just several trillions? Thats chump change
@@nelsonta00 Liar
By 2044, several trillion dollars would be small change.
@samsonsoturian6013 Makes the Fall Longer & Impact Harder.... 🍿
Great video! Would love to see an updated video on US debt itself and the international demand for USD.
I feel like so much of the push for the gold standard and/or cryptocurrency is tied to a misunderstanding of US debt, institutional investors, currency creation (ex: creation through bank lending vs 'printing.'), etc.
Sorry Patrick but you ignored the elephant in the middle of the room: dramatic population decline. This explains just about everything that is going wrong in Japan. It also explains why no amount of government/monetary intervention will work. What is happening now in Japan will happen everywhere in the western soon.
Fingers crossed
I believe the belief is that various AI products will eliminate so many jobs that having a declining population is a good thing unless you’re producing labor intensive goods (food). I think a number of influencial entities are planning for this type of future.
No, it will not in the West.
1. The West will let in immigrants.
2. The West will experiment until it arrests the decline in births, cheap housing, free child care, credits for parents staying at home.
3. eventually profits in the economy will explode when automation makes the Industrial revolution look like a child's plaything.
Social unrest in The West always leads to mini revolutions.
Aw shucks, so much better to have a big population living on the streets half dead sacking stores to self medicate with veterinary anesthethics. Give San Bernardino my regards !
thus the massive immigration in the west
Can you get much growth in consumption in a country that is getting older by the day? Young people consume goods, old people not so much.
maybe they could get rid of their 20% consuption tax?
Not necessarily. Older people tend to make more money so they can spend a little, while younger people spend little except on a few large purchases made with borrowed money. Not sure how the math works out
There are offsetting factors: large increases in productivity due to AI will benefit smaller populations. It is easy to reduce capacity in many cases, so societal costs can follow societal needs. But it does seem, from a global market sense, than being a front runner of population reduction is possibly troubling.
The old people I know spend more than they earn (huge debt). They spend mainly in gambling, restaurants and cigarettes 🤔
And a country where they work their young to death, sending them to the lithium mines where they need to endure dangerous conditions mining that lithium.
I wonder how many soviet factory owners desperately tried to explain the
concept of an output gap to comrade Stalin, as if their life depended on it...
With Stalin, their life _did_ depend on it! 😅
> Soviet
> Owners
Who's gonna tell him
The Party owned the factories. The people you're looking for are the managers
3:27 love this part the most!
Love you talks. I put them on to go to bed. I legit love it.
My wife thinks Im an idiot. " You always end up snoring then waking up..then snoring."
Dunno mate. Its a thing now. Keep er up.
Then we watch again to watch the parts we missed... yup.
lol me too, but I’m the wife
I do the same thing but I’m not sure it’s a compliment 😂
@@namename6459 no one’s perfect 😉
"You always end up snoring then waking up..then snoring."
Are you waking up because of the snoring? If so, it might make sense to consider using e.g. a CPAP device or some other similar remedy.
Living in Japan 32 years now. I'm actually poorer now then when I arrived as a young man. Shit is expensive and wages make Cambodia look like New York. One thing you didn't touch on was the problem of "Shrinkflation" Japanese companies are reluctant to increase prices so they quietly decrease the size and amount of products in their packages. You see this in Restaurants too with smaller portions. Sucks, but we still have national health Insurance, clean and safe infrastructure, a polite population, beautiful women and a really cool culture. So there is that.
And don't forget your Nuclear Irradiated Drinking Water!
😂😂
@@HughJass-jv2lt That's China. Not Japan.
@@Picasso_Picante92
🤣🤣
No EINSTEIN.
Japan dumped all their *FUKUSHIMA Irradiated Water* back into their own Waters.
Educate Yourself.
❤❤
@@HughJass-jv2lt Yeah, I know. I was there. I drove emergency supplies to Tohoku as a volunteer. I saw the reactor building blow up in real time. I'm aware of the radiation leaking into the seawater. I'm also aware that levels haven't affected local produce or drinking water. Because you know SCIENCE. Unlike you I try not to believe every sensationalist thing I see online. Run along now.
Your entire bottom paragraph is subject to end thanks to immigration too btw give it a decade and revisit this comment
I feel like people who don’t get economics or haven’t lived in a stagnant country don’t understand how big of a deal lack of improvement is.
But to the “become an emerging market” thing at the end - I think people with a low-medium amount of Econ knowledge can overplay the importance of indicators like GDP growth - and ignore the fact that it is in the grand scheme of things 1) super wealthy, 2) super Educated 3) super strong institutions 4) super safe and stable.
3 decades of stagnation sucks but let’s not forget that while there are some societal and economic issues, Japan’s absolutely one of the best countries to live or do business in by many measures.
And they have an important enough location that if stuff ever got really bad - some western friends would definitely help out in exchange for continued use of some military airstrips.
Japan is stunning ❤
High GDP, education and stability alone are not enough to make a market (as opposed to a country) "developed". MSCI still consider South Korea an emerging market even though it is obviously a highly developed country. Things like how truly "free" a country's exchange rates are or how easy it is for foreigners to buy stock matter a lot. This classification matters because trillions of dollars of money is held in passive funds tracking the MSCI Developed World Index, meaning an upgrade or downgrade in status would force these funds to buy or sell billions of dollars of stocks from that country.
@@themindgarage8938 Re: South Korea there developed in the spirit of the word - MSCI has said they meet the criteria other than ease of transacting and 24/7 FX trading.
In terms of Japan - yeah agree there’s more to it - but they’ve been a mature developed economy as long as most of Europe. central bank has a decent ability to control monetary policy, and The YEN is one of the most liquid currencies in the world - so they’re not getting bumped any time soon.
Interestingly ETFs are a small part of the picture (only 10% AUM in the US). What matters is actively managed institutional money, ($30T AUM in the US alone). They use classifications to an extent, but people managing billions are smart enough to adjust.
don’t think it would have the enormous effect you’re imagining. it would be a net inflow (speaking to korea), but EM ETFs and institutional allocations have grown a lot. - msci would signal well in advance to allow gradual rebalancing.
Japan and korea would both be less impacted vs many countries since their chaebols / conglomerates are prominent and receive significant analyst / investor attention.
this is very important! GDP is a means, not an end. There is a lot of correlation between productivity vs other quality of life indicators, but many countries have figured out you can net improve quality of life by giving up some GDP.
Japans national wealth is 29 Trillion dollars plus Japans Stock Market is the 2 largest in the world, almost the size like the EU. Japan isn’t what most people think, it’s actually a huge sleeping 🐻 🎌
I never understood the reasoning behind why deflation is so bad. It sounds like a made up argument. I mean if it were true the opposite also has to be true. Meaning in inflationary period people would spend all their savings to purchase a tv, fridge or whatever because tomorrow it might be more expensive. Which is not the case so why should we apply this logic to only one side of the argument?
@@justinsayin3979 fair enough but there has to be “serious deflation” to justify this reasoning. Saying simply deflation causes all this is painting the wrong picture. Mild deflation around 2-4% (not all the time) will not lead to such tragic economic or behavioral changes.
The issue IIRC in japan it's frowned upon to ask for a higher salary, It's seen as being disrespectful to your boss, furthermore switching employers doesn't work neither since you pretty much start from square 1 and climb up. This doesn't encourage wage growth very much.
Will Patrick ever learn to check focus on his camera before recording? Lovely crisp buildings in the background.
I think he uses a green screen
@@gregoryturk1275No, he’s just Irish.
Hey oh!
How big a role does Japan's trade deficit play a role in the weak Yen? It has finally turned to a surplus this March. Exports driven by the weak Yen, and no longer hindered by Covid/IC shortage, suggests surplus could continue.
I remember the persistent surplus in the prior decades was the driving force for the strong Yen... could Japan be heading there again?
Japan's labor is pretty damn cheap nowadays though, especially when calculated per hour worked... It's on the same level as Slovakia and Romania. Japan is a developed country by infrastructure (which was built a long time ago), but a developing country economy-wise.
Intelligent, funny, well spoken, one of the best podcasters in finance and economics, if only the people I work with had his skills
thats same story.
macroecon guys are talking about GDP gap for last 20-30 years.
since Paul Krugman wrote liquidity trap paper, thats the only thing they want to talk about when they talk about japanese economy.
missing important fact that growing china as super manufacturing giant replacing japan as exporter of industrial goods.
It's true, but you could also argue that China being a low-cost massive hub for manufacturing has been a serious threat since the 90s but still hasn't cut into Japan's exports very deep. As well China's labor costs have risen substantially and many manufacturers are moving to neighboring countries with lower wages so it's not growing its manufacturing base like it was in the 2000s. If anything the danger of cheap Chinese exports seems to have weakened not grown over the last few years. But that's just my opinion
Japans national wealth is 29 Trillion dollars plus Japans Stock Market is the 3 largest in the world, almost the size like the EU. Japan isn’t what most people think, it’s actually a huge sleeping 🐻 🎌
Japan's economy has suffered from prolonged deleveraging since the bursting of the bubble economy boom. Also the shifting of production to other places from export oriented industries, which have the highest productivity and higher wages, has meant that most jobs have been on low productivity services. And due to a cultural quirk it's accepted that employers can generally abuse their employees, this means a high number of hours and low wages per hour. In fact there are indications that although there's a decreasing percentage of working population wages have generally gone down or stagnated.
This results in lower demand in the economy, either due to low investment, inability to spend due to having no free time, and low wages and economic insecurity that keeps spending down.
Best rap channel ever. Can't stop watching.
Fascinating insight into Japan's economic maneuvers! The strategic interventions reflect not only the complexity of global finance but also the critical role of policy in stabilizing markets during turbulent times. 👍
Japan needs to embrace the cheap Yen. It was what made the Japan miracle 40 years ago.
Its interesting to see how japan was fighting tooth and nail to peg their yen low back then and now opposite is happening
Export sales are coming down
They dont wanna to much unbalance economy... Remember that Japanese people like to save but doesnt understand investing.. And the fact they get so much tourist it will make the gap between rich and poor to much and if it to bad, revolution are just right behind it..
Cheap Yen is good when you have a large young population to back it up, but when you're pretty old, it plays differently. Japan is like a retiree who's watching his pension grow lower. At some point, he needs to start selling his assets to avoid starvation because going back into the labor market is not even an option.
The problem is that Japan is shrinking, therefore less taxable youth.
Their worry is about government has to spend more on retirement pensions than what they can tax the youth.
This on top of the law being too strict AND Japanese youth are on financial choke that they cannot afford a family means the government psyop to "have s3x" as the Shinzo Abe memes and animes put it - fails hard.
Also recent studies shows that common people paid more taxes by simply buying at supermarket or commuting than big compamies holding bubble stocks. Which is why government in there is slowly forced to inevitably tax the rich since the economy gap is at its widest right now.
They always had the option to tax the rich, but they haven't. Sane people there simply don't want to bring their kids to bear the same unreasonable ballooning taxes and deadend jobs. Its just parental love and common sense in full effect.
I don't know what's worse. As an average Joe from Europe trying to make sense of all this, I have never experienced a situation where the cost of living gets lower with time. Quite the contrary, the cost of living is nearly unbearable. I dream of a deflationary economy and lowering prices that could give me an opportunity to live comfortably without looking for pennies under the sofa cushions. From the point of view of policymakers and bankers, deflation might sound like a bad thing, but from the common folk's point of view, it's actually a good thing. Imagine a housing market so low that everybody could afford to buy a house without a mortgage that surpasses life expectancy.
That’s not how deflation works, only workers near the end of their work lives would benefit, and nearly everyone else would be worse off
@@leonardooriano5794 How so?
@@Sosi288 because deflation causes an immediate tightening of credit, which is universally bad for anyone without cash reserves as well as most businesses. Ends up creating an economic situation where a small number of people can buy things cheaply with their now-swollen savings, and everyone else eats shit
23:28 just google structure of Japan government debt and you will find that such a high debt is not a concern as big as it is for Italy or US. I do not think the debt of Japan is a problem for Japan and it is owned by the bank of Japan mainly ... so it's like you owe water to the ocean.
In your description it says that you are a hedge funge manager, university professor and a former investment banker, so I was wondering if this youtube thing is a part time thing you do and maybe if that explains why you seem to take these video in different locations?
I get paid in Yen. It's been pretty painful for the last couple of years.
Anyone else realized the desync? I don't think many of us did since he's so monotonous anyway.. 😂
Regardless, I'm a returning viewing because of the quality content. Thanks again for the very informative share!
"[...] squeezing the shorts out of their position"
It's a reasonable commentary but you gotta love the phrasing
Why do Central Banks do this? Pointless and just burning through reserves. And this are the professionals with PhDs. God help us all.
I work and live in Japan (raised here) and the yen-dollar issue is a problem.
Patrick wearing a striped tie means extra crispy sarcasm.
At @4:00 you have the subscribe green screen. Seems like a quick editing error to fix!
THIS is why I Subscribe!!!
Thanks for sharing.
I like how Japan has handled its economics. It's stayed flat for 30 years and the country hasn't imploded, and they're still the 3rd largest economy on the planet. Proof that inflation isn't necessary and infinite growth is simply greed.
this, absolutely... the only reason why the the japanese economy is framed as a basket case (or ignored at best) in mainstream macro-economics is because it provides empirical evidence that the neo-liberal con of the last 5 decades is total BS.
While I entirely agree, it is important to note that a whole lot of Japan’s stability and economy is the direct result and likely dependent upon its best friend: the American consumer .
Well 4th and maybe 5th rather soon, if the current pace of currency devaluation continues.
I'm not sure I agree with the viewpoint given how destructive deflation can be to an economy, and given that Japan has been on the knife edge of deflation for nearly 30 years even after pursuing some of the most extreme monetary policies possible to create inflation. I wouldn't call that a good or healthy economic situation. You can call it greed but steady slow drop in real wages for the working class hurts real people and causes real loss in standard of living
The shops need to set the price tags for about 40% consumers that are pension recipients in order to get the business going and the pension recipients won't get raise here in Japan.
I think the devaluation of the Yen is caused by the extremely conservative approach to business and manufacturing. Japan has been long overtaken by China and other cheaper countries as a leader in electronics, cars and other typical Japanese exports. I remember myself that in the 90s Japan was seen as this futuristic land where great new products were invented like Nintendo's and extremely reliable Toyota's. Where cutting edge media products were developed like the movies Akira and Ghost in the Shell, games like Mario Brothers and Final Fantasy 7. Things like the Shinkansen trains were the ambassadors of a country that was miles ahead. These were all really best in slot products that were quite a bit superior, especially price/quality-wise than anything else available.
Now this is no longer the case at all and I think Japan is a very good current day example of the "law of the braking advantage". They were so far ahead that they stuck with doing the same thing for way too long as other countries, especially in the region, caught up. South Korea, Taiwan, China are all doing what Japan does, and often quite a bit cheaper. And because Japan doesnt really seem to be the great innovator any more, the Yen has to decline simply because everything the country does is just worth a lot less than a decade ago. It is a natural result of the market as it is today. Devaluation of the Yen is quite an effective strategy. The only thing they need to do is to add so much value to their imports through their massive manufacturing capabilities, that the profits of their exports make up for it. And, by effectively dropiing their labour costs by 33%, apparantly this is working quite well.
I feel this is natural - if one considers the natural resources available to Japan as compared to China, the current situation seems inevitable. I don’t know if this is a failure of Japan as much as a function of them living on a tiny island while china has thousands of square miles.
For whom exactly? Not for the Alice's, with zero nominal wage growth for 3 decades. It's a K-shaped income distribution, with the asset wealthy riding high, and everyone else heading downwards. Just like the US. That's why talking about GDP is pretty pointless, because you can't spend it.
@@BenP-ue5zn No exactly. Its just a method to keep their huge manufacturing sector relevant. This is not good or bad in itself. However, I do feel that Japan has to keep aiming for more high-end products that are simply too complicated for emerging economies to imitate. Because if they keep doing what they are doing now they unwillingly participate in a race to the bottom where the only thing that matters is who can produce the cheapest. Now Japan could win this race, or at least remain competative. I mean, the Japanese labour force is extremely hard working and disciplined, but the question is if the population is going to put up with effectively becoming ever poorer in order to stay competative.
@@ageoflove1980maybe a sakoku period of closing off entirely is in order?
@@krunkle5136 That's not possible because Japan lacks the natural resources to do this. They tried, but that resulted in defeat in 1945 of course. It would basically mean Japan somehow has to return to a pre-industrial era because they won't have the resources to fuel their factories. Not saying that this is impossible, lots of Western European countries quite successfully abandoned almost all manufacturing, but not by turning their backs on the world, but rather by switching to a service economy. And it really can't go full agricultural or something extreme like that, the population is way to large and urbanized for that. No, the way forward has to be extremely high-end exports facilitated by an extremely highly educated workforce and keep doing this as the rest catches up. Be better than the competition instead of the Chinese model of simply being cheaper through sheer scale. Think California or The Netherlands. If you cant be bigger, you have to be smarter.
Enjoyable, and informative - as usual.
Just one thing: Felt compelled to share this. Nice thumbnail. But I don't think it is conducive for people checking the video out when the link appears with the subtext "Get a free 14-day trial of Odoo’s all-in-one business solution and see how it can make your life easier!.."
Anyways, always enjoys your content. This was particularly good
A glitch in the Professor's matrix at 23:41, the pause before "Preliminary...".
The irony is during the bubble in Japan there were accounts of sallared employees making modest wages while their bosses got ridiculously rich, which seems unfair until it was followed by decades of bosses being obliged to pay salaries even though ownership of the company paid little to nothing.
This policy was called eating the rich, the top 1% was forced to uphold the labor market for more than 3 decades, without making any profit. A boss can't even fire an employee in Japan, unless the dude do something utterly terrible.
@@robymaru03 people repeat that second half of your sentence but its not true at all. Its a cultural thing. Yall seem to believe its a law on the books. 20-30 year olds in japan arent shopping for jobs with the mindset that they will be set for life like their parents and grand parents. 1) they are a valuable asset, theres relatively few 2)technology today, especially in japan, makes it super easy for younger workers to move freely through sectors. 3)stop spewing nonsense you hear like a parrot and do some research if it interests you.
@robymaru03 found the shoplifter. Now shut up and quit making veiled terroristic threats, we all know you're too cowardly to talk back to your boss
@@dogsbecute Japan does have strong labor laws, simultaneously true that youth are in-demand and that they have strong labor laws, there's no contradiction there, for example in university tenured professors are hard to remove even when they don't teach much nor research novel stuff anymore, while young instructors are needed too.
Why did you go straight to saying they are parrots and ignorant?
It is just not true though. Corporate profits have increased 300% since the nineties, but wages have been flat.
The camera focus was on the background and not you, my eyes are strained
Its good to see patrick still have time for youtube videos after buying the penthouse with the new gamestop money
Love the countries that try to manipulate currency prices. Can work for a short time, but usually ends up in serious Bubble or Depression territory. As China is discovering now and Japan discovered when they created decades of the lost years after they created the Bubble Economy of the 80s.
No more (limited) electronics to export and most important no Oil, no Natural Gas and all must be imported. Nothing will change unless they get a high demand export to manufacture.
Patrick can you do a video explaining the musk compensation vote please! would love to hear your take on it and ruthless sarcasm
Here you go: ruclips.net/video/QkuAXOMYwA4/видео.html
I think it's a lot down to trade deficits. Japanese dollar reserves in the past had helped prop up the yen even with their low interest rates. JPY tanked when the Ukraine war broke out due to resulting energy and food shocks, sending Japan into record deficits. With the weakened yen Japanese exports and tourism will become more competitive in return and eventually stop the dive, with yen denominated wages increasing, they would come out worse in real terms, but the energy and food shocks aren't permanent either.
On a side note, increasing domestic wages while hoping no prices rise is just economic alchemy, but that has never deterred any politician.
Square watermelons are still extremely expensive in Japan :(
Fruit generally is just very expensive in Korea and Japan
Cubed Watermelon give me the willies. It's just ... WRONG. Looks like something Elon Musk would dream up. But I suppose such is a Space-SavR?
@@fromfareast3070 $200 for one watermelon expensive? That's a Fashion Price, not a fruit-is-pricey price my friend.
@@youbetyourwrasse Maybe you missed the what they actually said. Normal fruit is in GENERAL very expensive in Japan and Korea. Of course the cube watermelon is a vanity product.
Buy cube watermelons instead!
The main reason to defend the Yen is to avoid imported inflation. Inflation is imported to Japan mainly through fossil fuel imports, 25% of imports. If Japan invested the billions it's now wasting defending the Yen on renewable energy projects, restarting nuclear reactors and EV subsidies it could have reduced its fossil fuel imports and can just let the Yen fall. Lower Yen is good for exports. The slow adoption of EVs is also due to Toyota reluctance and bet on Hydrogen which has proven a tougher technology.
....did you forget about fukushima in 2011? It was a huge culture shock. It took a decade, plus a worldwide pandemic, but their energy imports have been at this level for a while now. They made a cultural decision to import more fuel from the middle east. It wasnt because they suddenly became inept. They fundamentally dont want more nuclear and are all in on fossil fuels.
As Patrick have said, the act of defending yen is a short term solution, as the volatily caused by irrational market participant could kill the currency immediately. The solution that you speak of is for long term, not to mention it needs much higher capital than buying dollar
@@dogsbecute No they are not. 12 reactors have restarted, 5 passed review and 10 are still under review, Japan suspended 48 reactors by 2013. Nuclear energy reduced LNG imports by 15%. Two Nuclear reactors are under construction. Japan bet on Hydrogen and Hydrogen is taking longer to develop than predicted. The rest of the world is going with Solar, then Wind (wind has some profitability issues right now) and then Hydrogen.
You got a greenscreen issue at 3:28. The editor missed this one.
You can reupload a fix, can't you? :)
Not a lot of rap news, but an interesting look at Japan's mysterious economy.
I was expecting a review of the Kendrick/Drake Rap Beef
Deflation is only bad for businesses that shouldn't exist.
Did anyone else notice the editing mistake during the first interaction reminder at 3:25? Shows a green screen accidentally. Good video otherwise
Well, also editing mistake at 23:41. Patrick is also out of focus for most of the video… doesn’t take away from its content. Just shows they wanted to get this video out of the door quickly.
He also never blinks. I think patrick is not real.
I like how respectful he talks about Japan
In the US, we have been entitiled to a pay rise every few years. However, that is not the case for the Japan- a cautionary tale of the world. Deflation has been rampant in Japan for years and Japanese firms have invested underwhelmingly measly capital into its workforce and R&D. They rather prioritize the stability of consumser index. That is why certain Japanese products are pegged to their price 20 years ago and salaries have been stagnant.
Hi Patrick, given your previous scepticism on Bitcoin, would appreciate you producing an updated video on your current thoughts on this, given the uptake of this asset by mainstream investment organisations and looking lke this will only increase...many thanks
23:35 - man that was a trip
Hi traders! It’s me! Well done making another video Patrick, nice vista.
Knowledge supports growth.
Ok I realize deflation is bad for business who are kept afloat by "infinite growth" but who starves themselves to wait for food to be less expensive if they have the money to buy it, who is unaffected by fomo if they can afford to be part of the group involved, who never upgrades if they will still have the money to upgrade later even if they do it now? The wealthy (other than food I guess, they are still human), ordinary people have to spend to survive because Capitalism will literally kill you if you don't meet the costs of food, shelter and health both mental and phisical. So would deflation be beneficial in a system that provides UBI? If you still have money to spend then the potential loss of work is not as detrimental and you don't become less valuable due to getting sick or malnourished if you are unable to find work and you are still paying taxes because you are still paying to meet your needs.
I'm curious what I'm missing?
@PBoyle Is there a country where corporations are NOT reporting record profits?
There is quite a lot of scope for Japan to increase the minimum wage if they wanted to. It appears to be only $7.51 an hour in Tokyo.
@23:40 ...have you been replaced by AI? (don't take anything they offer you, they 'hallucinate' the terms of the deal).
A lot of people are gonna learn why betting against Japan is considered a "widow maker" trade
why so mad
@@swaggitypigfig8413 its only game
Hmm... look back at when the Japanese stock market collapsed around 1990. It has only recently recovered from that.
The "widow maker" trade was betting that high debt levels would cause Japanese government bond yields to rise.
@@MattMcQueen1 different story
I just watched the cold fusion RUclips video that came out two weeks ago now we got Patrick Boyle talking About Japan 🗾 noice ❤
Let's gooooo!
Instead of worrying about deflation and resulting job losses, Japan should be like the US and have high interest rates, sustained rising inflation AND layoffs and job cuts.
japan: record profits sony: still requires psn to play helldivers
Didn't they already reverse that decision?
ni read their statement they still learning@@seneca983
No. The issue which Japan cannot overcome is its demographic problems. Japan's population is set to fall by one-third by the middle of the century. Contrary to what people think, Japan's economy is so export-driven, and the lion's share of Japan's economic activity is domestic. A falling population means fewer consumers, less revenue, fewer profits, and lower prices as a result. The last 30 years of deflation has mirrored the decline in population and domestic economic activity. Profits are of course up in Japan, but these profits don't come close to overcoming the losses accrued by Japanese companies over the last 4 decades. It would take a number of years of profits of the current levels for Japanese companies to balance their books. The main reason that policymakers want more inflation is that they've painted themselves into a corner with public spending. Japan has an immense public debt, the largest of any developed country, and more than one-fourth of tax revenue is spent on debt-servicing costs. With no inflation to inflate away the value of this debt, the ability of the government to borrow and spend is reduced. In the case of deflation, the value of government debt increases, making it ever less manageable. Japan, like many other countries, is putting the cart in front of the horse, and wondering why it won't move. Companies in Japan will not increase wages when Japan's current demographic problem makes long term losses inevitable.
Greetings from Hawaii
The money changers in Malaysia refuse to sell us yen according to market rate unless we are willing to pay a bit more .
I still don't buy the idea of modest deflation causing deferred consumption. When did you last think about inflation/deflation before making a purchase? That's right, never, because time preference far surpasses such monetary considerations.
I dont agree. Deflation itself is always good. However the reason could be bad. But it simple wrong to claim that consumers wait to buy when it is deflation. That is simple not how consumers works. They buy for mainly 2 reasons. 1 They want. 2 They need. People will not stop buying the milk today just because it becomes 1 cent cheapier next year, they still need it today and cant wait. Most people buy the latest tech and games etc when it is new and most expensive, they dont wait 1-2 yrs and buy it for half of the price. So sorry you are wrong, like most economist when it comes to this. If anything deflation makes people buy more since their money last longer. But again, the reason to the deflation could be bad. But dont mix up the reason and deflation itself with eachother.
THANK YOU! Someone else with common sense!
If the japanese central bank, or any other, identify shorting activity by speculators that they can squeeze it sounds like a good move, but if you cant win it or you are just fighting against the reality of the currency's value, it just seems like you are pissing your reserves away. There is something to be said about a small intervention that sets a status quo floor, though. I think in that case a small intervention may be worth the cost depending on your goal, witht the caveat that the central bank needs to exercise control and not keep trying to prop up the currency if the floor doesnt hold.
Japan commits hari kari to protect the US empire. How loyal 😘
its not hari kiri and its to protect themselves. They need to discipline the fools who speculate against their currency
@@grimaffiliations3671comments like these only want to throw dirt at US indirectly
What's the opposite of hara kiri? This could be it.
Hara dashi
Hara Kiranai
I didn't know the JPY was so weak. I'm tempted to do another vacation in Japan.
Some people get stoned and watch Family Guy, I get stoned and watch Patrick Boyle, we are not the same.meme.jpg
Japan became an economic power house by selling goods not by monetary voodoo. Monetary policy won't change anything. What to increase wages ? Descrease house rent.
Just raise minimum wages. Well off workers would invest with salary raises not contributing to economy. poor workers would spend. That's the right kind of unavoidable inflation that would push money flow