You have a great 80s music playlist. I recommend adding Nothing's gonna stop us now - Starship or Nothing's gonna change my love for you - George Benson.
Mam in case of a simple question where just alternatives and values are given and we just have to use the decision tree formula so what should we do just make the decision tree diagram using the given data ? Or we have to subtract the payoff ? Becuz in our case no payoff is given just alternatives with values and probability is given so kindly tell me what should i do becuz i have to submit my assignment ASAP
The value of 140 is the payoff if you purchased and the demand happens to be high. Expected value is not the same as an individual payoff. It is the weighted average of the payoffs where the weights are the likelihood of the payoffs. Since we don't know what level of demand will occur before we decide whether to manufacture or purchase, computing the expected value for each alternative gives us some metric on which to base our decision.
+Shadowbolt You can deduct 10 from each payoff that originates from conducting research or you can deduct 10 later when you "roll back" the tree. I chose the latter in this example. So I subtracted 10 just before comparing the expected values at node 2 and 3. Either way is fine.
Many thanks..very very clear explanation..could you please share the software u have used to explain the problem..will be thankful if you can share it.
I used inking in Excel with Wacom Bamboo tablet and used Camtasia Studio to record and edit video. Let me know if this is not what you were asking or if you have further questions.
@@jwinch2 Thanks , great explanation, Is it possible if I have a probability of favourable and unfavourable(P robabillity f over low demand) market reseach in low , medium and high demand scenario , I put once chance node each for low, medium, high demand followed by another chance node for favorable and unfavourable outcome.
@@mande2403 I think you are asking if you know the probability of different demand levels, P(H), P(M), P(L), and conditional probabilities for market research prediction, P(F|H), P(F|M), etc. whether it is correct to have chance nodes of demand levels followed by the chance nodes of market research prediction. Technically yes. But that situation would not be relevant in the context of this example. If knowledge of market condition comes first, then you can just make the decision without doing the market research
Hello Thank you for the video. I have a question: In the very begining you said if the Demand is high we may conduct a research but we found out in the end that we shouldnt conduct a research although the demand may be high. In other words how can you make a decision if you don't know the demand?
At the beginning, I did not say if the demand is high, we may conduct a research. I said if there is high demand, it is worthwhile to manufacture. But unfortunately, we don't know the demand level before making the decision. The point of the video is making the decision even when we don't know the demand level.
Thank you so much! This absolutely saved my life and now I can pass my exam! Really this was extremely helpful!
You are the only one who expalined this better in youtube 🎉
A great teacher indeed you saved me,,be blessed.
Excellent video demonstration for this economic evaluation.
Very nice. Clear cut and to the point :)
Thank you for this ❤️ A really big help for unexpected online class due to Covid19.
Thank you so much for the tutorial. I wish my lecturer had explained it this way, it would have been very comprehensible.
Highly Appreciated Great Effort.
Precise explanation teach, much appreciated.
your better at this than my teacher at school
thanks
PERFECTLY DONE
This was very helpful, thank you so much!
Excellent Teaching. clear and methodical. well illustrated.
thank u so much your explanation is flawless
You have a great 80s music playlist. I recommend adding Nothing's gonna stop us now - Starship or Nothing's gonna change my love for you - George Benson.
And a number of other songs as well :)
Nice, clear presentation, we appreciate.
great description, love from India
Thank you for your amazing video. Such easily explained!
Very well Explained. Thank You.
thank you so much for this video
Thanks for clear explanation ^^
excellent stuff thank you
Awesomeeeeeeeeeeee explanation !
Brilliant
Thanks, very clearly explained.
highly appreciated. thank you very much.
Thank you so much..
Wonderful explanation.
great explanation ... thank you
Thanks
wonderful
wow... thank you a lot. this simplifies it to the core
Amazing content Thank You!!
Very well explanation..
Well explained
Thank you very much!!
Thank you I'm going to get total on this and in tomorrow's test
Super Clear thank you so much!
great explanation!
its realy very benificial..........
very understandable..thank you
It was very helpful!
thanks too much, god bless you .it was helpful
Mam in case of a simple question where just alternatives and values are given and we just have to use the decision tree formula so what should we do just make the decision tree diagram using the given data ? Or we have to subtract the payoff ? Becuz in our case no payoff is given just alternatives with values and probability is given so kindly tell me what should i do becuz i have to submit my assignment ASAP
thanks...really helpful
u r a legend
How did you get the conditional probabilities?
They are a given
thankyou Ma'am! 👍☺
thank you
wouldn't the max expected value from the winning branch be 140 if there is high demand?
The value of 140 is the payoff if you purchased and the demand happens to be high. Expected value is not the same as an individual payoff. It is the weighted average of the payoffs where the weights are the likelihood of the payoffs. Since we don't know what level of demand will occur before we decide whether to manufacture or purchase, computing the expected value for each alternative gives us some metric on which to base our decision.
gotcha, thanks for clearing that up!
thank you i get it now!
Isnt the payoffs of the research branch supposed to be deducted by 10 because of research costs?
+Shadowbolt
You can deduct 10 from each payoff that originates from conducting research or you can deduct 10 later when you "roll back" the tree. I chose the latter in this example. So I subtracted 10 just before comparing the expected values at node 2 and 3. Either way is fine.
+jwinch2 Why we use 10?
+jwinch2 how do we get those probability values?
+Jenriel Catuling Because that is the cost of the survey conducted. :) Therefor we subtract the cost to the payoff.
Oww now I understand. how about those probability data? they're from?
Many thanks..very very clear explanation..could you please share the software u have used to explain the problem..will be thankful if you can share it.
I used inking in Excel with Wacom Bamboo tablet and used Camtasia Studio to record and edit video. Let me know if this is not what you were asking or if you have further questions.
Thanks it is clear and I could do it myself..Thanks again..
were you in kenya ,would have bought a bottle for you....heko mwalimu
In the question is not stated the cost need to be deducted. So why the value 10 is there? How we want to know how much should be deducted?
It is given at about 2:28 that the market research is expected to cost $10,000. That's where the cost is given.
@@jwinch2 Thanks , great explanation, Is it possible if I have a probability of favourable and unfavourable(P robabillity f over low demand) market reseach in low , medium and high demand scenario , I put once chance node each for low, medium, high demand followed by another chance node for favorable and unfavourable outcome.
@@mande2403 I think you are asking if you know the probability of different demand levels, P(H), P(M), P(L), and conditional probabilities for market research prediction, P(F|H), P(F|M), etc. whether it is correct to have chance nodes of demand levels followed by the chance nodes of market research prediction. Technically yes. But that situation would not be relevant in the context of this example. If knowledge of market condition comes first, then you can just make the decision without doing the market research
@@jwinch2 thanks so much , superb explanation , understood , wish you happy holidays....
Hello Thank you for the video. I have a question: In the very begining you said if the Demand is high we may conduct a research but we found out in the end that we shouldnt conduct a research although the demand may be high. In other words how can you make a decision if you don't know the demand?
At the beginning, I did not say if the demand is high, we may conduct a research. I said if there is high demand, it is worthwhile to manufacture. But unfortunately, we don't know the demand level before making the decision. The point of the video is making the decision even when we don't know the demand level.
Great😂
I don't understand manufacture=0.3*200+.4*60+.3*(-30)=why 75???? Here correct answer is 73....can you explain mem.please..
0.3*200+0.4*60+0.3*(-30) = 60 + 24 - 9 = 75