Saudi oil flooding the market would have major implications for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ability to fund it, that’s a dynamic that didn’t exist in previous instances
@@brucec954China doesn’t have very large oil reserves since they are not energy independent and have to rely on imports for more than 50% of their daily oil usage. China is actually importing less oil now than they did in 2021 or 2019 because China’s economy is slowing down and their GDP actually decreased in 2023 according to the IMF. For the first time in 4 decades, China’s GDP declined. They are now $10 Trillion behind the USA’s GDP. The gap between the US and China is once again growing, instead of China slowly catching up to US which was the case for a few decades. But for the last few years, the US has been growing faster than China
People being poor has nothing to do with it. Its purely demand and supply. Us finally producing , the only thing that stops the US is if Saudi flushes the market making barrels worthless
EVs are nibbling at oil too. It's hard to see, becauseI think they were slowing growth, and cars are on the road 13 or more years. I'll tell you what, raise prices too much, and it's going to get ugly quick.
OPEC was asked to open the taps when the war in Ukraine started, they did not, don't know what they thought was going to happen, but even I knew the US would step in and fill the void, now they have a problem, investment has already gone back into US oil and gas, so you are looking at a time lag before OPEC can price them out of the market.
The Ukraine Conflict is about Wall Street desire for Russian Resources. The BRICS Group is drawing more Nations every day. The USA, is incapable of assembling another Marshall Plan today. The world is a bit different from the illusion you appear to see.....
Since I bought a used BMW I3 almost three years ago, I've declined purchase on around twenty-three hundred gallons or seven short tons of gasoline. I hope this has increased OPEC's woes to a microscopic degree.
Its very simple . Us raises output while opec cuts . They gain profits from the higher price with higher production . As they say a win win while opec yes they may get a higher price but on less barrels sold
How long will the US exist economically as 70% of the available resources on this Planet are no longer available for the consumption of the US markets? If you look at anything but Oil Markets you begin to notice the USA is being shut out? You can not drink oil.
@@morpher44 during war, emergency time, 727 mn barrels may not even last for 20 days 😃😃 the fuel requirement of warships, war planes, tanks, war vehicles is in several millions barrels per day. Remember, US doesn't fight war on its territory, it fights at enemy territory so imagine fuel requirement to travel to some other far East or middle East nation.
The US is energy independent on oil and a net exporter of oil and value added oil products. Europe is importing less oil as the electrification of transportation continues. With China's economic slowdown, the total imports of oil has dropped in the Asian markets. OPEC can cut production, but the US and all non-OPEC producers will only increase production to take advantage of the price increase. If OPEC floods the market the World economy will accelerate on cheap energy and within a year stabilize higher prices at increased supply.
President Biden should just simply announce that he is thinking of greatly expanding oil production in the USA to send the oil markets reeling. Just thinking about it, you understand.
President Biden can't do that, and everyone with a clue knows it. American Presidents do not control oil production or dictate production levels. Private companies do. Capitalism, remember?
@@millevenon5853 Why? Companies are already producing as much as they want to produce and sitting on thousands of permits they aren't using. With prices falling they aren't going to be looking to develop new wells anyway. US policy is not a significant constraint on production.
Demand for oil as money becomes unavailable. Treasury is already struggling to support a Federal Reserve Note in the Bond Markets. The US Dollar is the next commodity to lose value. Economic War is Hell.
@@danielhutchinson6604 and what "economic war" would that be? Pull up a long term DXY chart. The dollar is just fine and isn't facing any serious threat. The US would be better off if the dollar was weaker.
Funny, the Trumpers believe we don't produce oil at all, even though we are producing at record levels. Another point: why do we think consuming our own oil is wiser than saving some in reserve for the future while buying oil on the open market today? Maybe the chat should be "save baby save!!"
"Trumpers" - spoken like a truly fanatic-ish snob. One thing I always wondered - if oil/gas is going to be obsolete, then why do we need to save it? Did we save telephone switchboards? Did we save telegraphs? Did we save wax production capacity? Saving something that you aim to make obsolete and no longer necessary is just silly. Also, oil is the hemoglobin of the modern world. Without it, you can go plow a field behind your mule, take four months to cross the country by wagon, or go sit in the ocean waiting for a gust a wind as long as you like.
Everyone knew we were producing at super high levels until your favorite president Biden got into office adding more regulations again. We filled up all of our reserves under Trump that your favorite president Biden used to get the 22 vote out
The economic effects of exploitation do tend to catch up to a Nation as other sources of revenue seem to just fade away? The US does not exist alone, the Empire needs the support the World can provide. The fall could be pretty sudden and the bottom could arrive before anticipated.
You have to chase this thing from several directions in parallel ; keep production high, assure refined stocks are solid, get an increasing volume of BEVs where they make sense and over time, you'll make some significant changes - and certainly prove out tech and charging to be more capable of handling a crisis blockade or such. Although now Canada is our largest import source.... good times.
It’s simple, the United States’s oil industry is the global leader in technology on how to profitably extract and produce a gallon of gas! Let’s do all we can to keep it that way.
Flooding the market will drive the prices down, making drilling less profitable for American companies. Sort of how it was cheaper to import steel than buy the stuff made right down the street in the 80s
After shale oil producer' bankruptcy some years back, shale oil now costs much more to be drilled & produced economically & to be profitable. & with such crude oil volatility of 20-25% correction every after 3-6 months, US oil producers can't really produce shale oil at will. So ultimately u can't use the shale oil reserves that u have.
@@maxanderd10 "...[S]ome years back..." It's 2023, going on 2024. Time for you to catch up. Either way, Middle East, all of it, be damned. No one square inch is worth the time, trouble, or aggravation. America needs our own oil/gas resources.
@@lawrencehawkins7198 So you want to stop using the world price and charge more for a domestic product? Sounds like a bad idea to me. Global trade based on a world price is the smoothest route long term.
It’s only a problem for Saudi Arabia and a few other opec members who want to reduce production so prices go up so they make more money by selling less The problem FOR OPEC is that they want high prices but the US is producing record numbers for the US which is helping push prices down which opec does NOT WANT.
He is telling a very different story now on oil prices. Pity as I believed his forecasts about future oil prices. How they change the narrative so easily.
Because they don't understand the geopolitical thinking. Prince Mohammad wants American base in his country protecting him from Iran. Yea, that is not going happen.
The US has a trick up their sleeve. The US needs to restore their strategic oil reserve. OPEC production goes up and the US buys oil back at lower costs. Maybe give some profits to local oil producers.
Spare capacity came out of nowhere! Investors had been working with the theory of tight supply. That thesis is no longer valid. It will be a difficult one for O&G equities. Those in the red may have to cut short their losses.
... this didn't come out of nowhere. EVs sold a new record this year of 1 million EVs. Let's say... that on average each EV is replacing a gas car that got 20 mpg and 12,000 miles a year. It may not sound like much but that's 600,000,000 gallons of gasoline removed from demand in a single year. That's not including all the previous EV car sales from previous years reducing gasoline demand. In this article it indicates there are about a total of 2.4 million electric cars on our roads. Again with the assumption that the average car is driver 12,000 miles a year and got 20mpg overall average efficiency that was replaced - That's 1.44 million less gallons of gas demand in the US. There are at this time (minus breakdowns and totalled vehicles) 7.4 million gas electric hybrids on the road. www.bts.gov/content/gasoline-hybrid-and-electric-vehicle-sales Which doesn't include 2022 and 2023 data. So, for the purposes of estimation let's assume losses in vehicles are equal to additional hybrids sold in 2022 and 2023. So 7.4 million hybrids and let's assume they get 50 mpg instead of 20 mp of the cars they are replacing. So, instead of 600 gallons of gas a year its 240 gallons a year. A savings of 360 gallons a year per car times 7.4 million cars. That's a removal of demand of gas consumed of another 2.6 billion gallons of gas! That's 4 billion gallons less gas consumed a year than we did say in years past! And for every EV or hybrid sold... it's only going to reduce demand more. Maybe to the point that we can survive on US gas production alone and stop the trade deficit we've had for decades because of oil.
I think, in this horrible time when we need to all set aside our differences and come together, that I speak for all people in non-OPEC nations when I say HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!
The Institute for Energy Research has recently published a new paper showing that a barrel of oil produced in the United States has a much lower environmental impact than a barrel produced somewhere like Venezuela, Nigeria, or Russia!Feb 16, 2023
no, definitely not. The saudis are still cutting, but they just keep losing market share. The shale growth in the US and conventional oil growth in Guyana, as well as the reversal of decline in Norway truly are stunning
@@smh6234 Wrong, diesel is not a major player in electricity production. And the grid is rapidly transitioning to renewables. Just look at Texas. It already was the leader in wind energy, now it is also the leader in solar.
It’s not politics, it’s the oil companies decision as well. Oil is privately produced and exported in the US. We don’t have state controlled companies like authoritarian dictatorships or Arab monarchies have. The oil companies produce whatever they feel the market demands. They don’t want to produce too much and tank the price per barrel of oil. The goal of Exxon Mobil or Chevron is to make as much revenue and profit as possible. They want a good balance between oil prices and oil production capacity. Obviously producing more oil gets them more money, but if they produce too much then prices go down and they make less money despite having higher production
@@tylerclayton6081Norway’s oil and gas is owned by the people and they have a savings account for every citizen of at least a million dollars each in case of an emergency You don’t have to be an authoritarian government to realize your countries natural resources should benefit all of your people not just a handful
@@jonathantaylor6926 and it did almost nothing to stop the relatively cautious extraction growth. There are hundreds of unused licenses companies are sitting on that could break ground tomorrow.
@@brilobox2 It's less about crude oil and more about refining capacity at this point.. but nobody wants to spend billions and billions of dollar building a new refinery that could easily be in use for 50+ years but could also be banned with the stroke of a pen buy insane leftist politicians. The leftist war on oil has consequences- underinvestment being the big one. When you threaten to ban a product, you get less of it.
Close the fracking domestic refining gap with new regional refineries spaced around the shale belt and stop the flood call leveraging and oil war financing and consumer voters will love the industry theyve come to loath for pushing them from pillar to post.
Would not like to be a saudi oil executive now or in the foreseeable future. So many electric cars joining the roads in the west every day and Africa will probably jump over the hybrid tech stage directly to electric scooters charged with solar and then small electric cars manufactured in India for the African urban areas. Same goes for South America. Chinese gov is really starting to get worried about their air quality in cities, so expect more restrictions for the gas cars. There will be very few places on Earth that want oil products in their urban cars in 5 years time.
because Biden had previously brought the world price of oil down by dumping national reserves onto the market. This was in response to what OPEC+ was trying to do. It seems the Biden strategy may pay off here if OPEC+ has to increase production to lower the price.
That because people are selling into the curve. Also, America is flooding the market in gasoline and diesel as well to make sure the security alliance stays strong. Countries like Britain or India need affordable oil right now.
The views of "top energy analyst Paul Sankey" are respectful, but in real life do not apply. U.S. oil production increase is not any problem for OPEC producers, they feel comfortable with restricted production levels. The real problem is hidden, and I think the problems are ahead, the demand is increasing even consumers pay higher prices everyday. This is slowing down normal economic developement on US and even more this is damaging economy on all oil importing countries. The challenge will be more severe when the US shale oil production will be more expensive for operators.
This is completely backwards why would Saudi want to sell oil cheaper. They just need to wait for the markets to respond. They if anything should reduce production more to support higher prices. How would dumping more oil into the market improve profits for them.
OPEC would like to crush US oil production. The best way to do that is to make it not profitable. Funny thing though, the US really does not need their oil, it is used to make what we have in the ground here last longer. That's why both Obama and Trump were willing to have US oil producers drilling like mad for over a decade.
They can produce oil at lower costs than most of the other oil exporters, including the U.S. and Canada. If oil goes below $40 a barrel, Saudi Arabia can still make money while shale oil producers in the west start to lose money (and eventually go bankrupt). Saudi Arabia regains the plurality of production and they can influence where the market goes.
If they over produce and drop the per barrel price then producers who extract gas at higher cost make no profit. So SA will hold the price low for as long as it takes to wipe out competition. Then raise it again when they have less competition and can control the market and pricing. Capitalism at work.
Except this top energy analyst wont tell you that anerican oil production is always dependant on high prices . Russia is cutting production in order to increase its influence in the middle east by helping the saudis and in order to beat thr ridicoulous price limit but otherwise the russians can make a profit with 50 dollars a barrell as well abd even less and with constant colossal increses in agribusiness and industrial production theyll need even less in the future . What about the gas station ?
Maybe its not as simple as I'm thinking. OPEC should be crashing the price in order to make US production non viable but they are trying to maintain prices.
@@mandarinandthetenrings2201 Or, Biden has the option of flipping a switch and using only domestic oil in the country. This isolationist oil plan is there if Opec+ gets all weird.
@@mandarinandthetenrings2201Exactly right. All one has to do is study the real estate market in the Permian to see what the state of US extraction is at the moment. The last time two times I drove through Midland and Odessa was during the Trump presidency and several months into the Biden regime. The differences couldn’t have been more stark. The populations of the two directly correlate to the layoffs and hiring cycles within U.S. oil and gas industry.
Dear Saudi, if you don't want to sell oil, just flush your oil down the toilet! There are many other players who welcome this because it will let them sell at a higher price while producing more oil!
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Also, for those who want the planet to go green, let the price of oil go way up. This will incentivize going green. Everyone will be highly motivated to come up with other solutions.
Oh dear! The WORLD has been running out of oil for 170 years now! The United States has been the largest producer of oil in the world for many of those 170 years, and what is happening? New record oil output! I remember environmentalists CONFIDENTLY predicting "peak oil" in year 2000. WHAT HAS HAPPENED to these environmentalists predictions!
Not just U.S. production. EV's have replaced 2% of gasoline cars on the road resulting in 2% lower demand for gasoline. Given the lower fuel prices- people in gasoline cars *will* drive more and eat up that difference but EV's will *continue* to destroy demand for fuel at increasing rates over the next 7 years when new ice cars will be banned in many countries and states.
@@JohnSmith-uy2jg I've got some bad news for you; we don't and won't have the infrastructure to expand EV production. I know economics is a complicated subject for people like you, but try and research it some more.
@@pudanielson1 It does. But that doesn't excuse ignorance. If people want good things to happen they need to understand them first. Wishful thinking is poison.
I’ll try to make this less intelligent for you to understand. MAGA isn’t complaining about Joe raising gas prices, they’re complaining about Joe doing nothing to lower them. I know that was probably really, really hard for you to comprehend but it was worth a shot. The former President, the one you probably mocked as the Twitter-In-Chief, successfully lowered gas prices with single tweets on several documented occasions. This is something the old brainless child sniffer in office can’t do because nobody respects him, literally.
Election coming up so of course Biden will pump more oil to bring prices down. And as soon as Democrats win they will stop pumping oil and prices will go back up. Its all manipulated.
Oil Production has never been the problem, these guys are idiots, it's about having people to buy what we produce ! That happens because of a combination of economics and chemistry. The economics are simple: overseas oil, even after shipping costs, is often cheaper than domestically-produced crude. And, while the U.S. does produce enough oil to meet its own needs, it is often the wrong type of oil.
Saudis own Exxon/Mobil and Chevron/Texaco Saudi Arabia is OPEC. The USA has no large refineries let. We have Sinclair in Wyoming and Sunoco in New Jersey Sunoco refinery in Houston Valaro is refined in Houston ARCO Phillips 66 which Berkshire Hathaesy used to oen but sold. Tha5s about it for large refineries
Oil production is a real problem for 2 reasons, first, oil demand and usage is declining, and second, oil reserves are rapidly declining and will be virtually depleted by the 2060's.
"Depleted" according to whom? Hydrocarbons are the second most abundant liquid on the planet and we don't really know where it comes from or how it's made. For all we know the planet MAKES it. Besides, there are plenty of non-oil options.
@@thedailygreatness I don't know if you know this but there has been new break through in "Green Energy". Using the new fracking technology the oil driller have found hot spots beneath the earth crust of course this is nothing new. But now by cracking open the shale to these hot spots you can pump water and create steam. The steam the can create electricity. It got a lot people in the "Green Community" very excited.
I ONLY seek gas stations below $2.77/G! Americans are sooo poor now due to criminal businesses not paying livable wages, that has has to drop back to $0.99/G permanently for the next 50 years!
HAHA, FUNNY, THE USA PRODUCTION COST IS 40 DOLLARS PER BARREL, SO GAS PRICES CAN NEVER GO BELOW 2 DOLLRS PER GALLON, OTHERWISE THE USA WILL SLOW OR STOP PRODUCING OIL , ELECTRIC CARS NOW ARE TAKING OVER THE SCENE ALL AROUND THE WORLD COAL IS DEAD, OIL IS ON THE WAY OUT
ROFL Take a good look at the taxes on a gallon of gas in your state. In Ohio it is $1.41 a gallon in taxes. The current pump price with taxes is $2.75 a gallon today. $.99 a gallon died in the 70's
Not really. US has left with really low quantity of recoverable Crude oil reserves that could last only till the end of 2025 with current oil production. US is left with only around 10 bn barrels of recoverable crude oil. US shale oil drilling now costs more than $70 per barrel to break even. & most of the shale oil assets are now completely shut & will never surface. OPEC+ ARE THE ONLY ONES WHICH CAN PRODUCE LARGE CRUDE OIL FOR LONGER TIME TILL 2030-2050.
@@muhlenberg2608 nope, those are shale oil reserves & most of it almost 60-70% not going to be drilled due to shale oil bankruptcy happened some years back. & yes, earlier I had mistyped 1 bn barrels instead of 10 bn barrels of recoverable crude oil reserves US has. US holds around 10-11 bn barrels of recoverable crude oil reserves which will be completely depleted in next 2-2.5 years with current crude oil production rate. U will see ur self by 2025 end 😊
@@muhlenberg2608 the idea is that in order to make shale oil ( the reserves that ur talking) an economically feasible, profitable option for energy, the crude oil prices must touch $150 per barrel by 2025 end & then u may see shale oil drilling getting started while the recoverable crude oil reserved get depleted completely in US. 😊 So, OPEC+ will try it's best to keep crude oil close to $100-120 per barrel by 2025-2026 & not exceed towards $150 to keep shale oil away from markets.
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Saudi oil flooding the market would have major implications for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ability to fund it, that’s a dynamic that didn’t exist in previous instances
Good point $60 oil would mess up Russia. India is only paying $71 average for last six months, so at $60 , India would be paying $50 (in Rupees)
right. and MBS seems to be Putin friendly. But, Putin might be on his way out soon.
What Paul didn't mention was that the reserve is ready at half capacity right now so the US can defend the 60 dollar target.
this will never happen under Biden with his climate agenda
Biden works for Russia and China to ensure our economy weakens
This dude is a beast
Sankey research what a boss
But, if Saudi Arabia does its flush, USA can fill up its national reserves at a much cheaper price.
Biden will be asleep like always.
Thats what China is doing with Russian santioned oil
@@brucec954 except it seems the railroad between China and Russia has been exploded by Ukraine.
@@brucec954They didn't at all. the capacity to transfer such oil is way too small.
@@brucec954China doesn’t have very large oil reserves since they are not energy independent and have to rely on imports for more than 50% of their daily oil usage.
China is actually importing less oil now than they did in 2021 or 2019 because China’s economy is slowing down and their GDP actually decreased in 2023 according to the IMF. For the first time in 4 decades, China’s GDP declined. They are now $10 Trillion behind the USA’s GDP. The gap between the US and China is once again growing, instead of China slowly catching up to US which was the case for a few decades. But for the last few years, the US has been growing faster than China
As you can see economies are slowing down around the world, it is going to be hard to keep the price of oil artificially high.
People being poor has nothing to do with it. Its purely demand and supply. Us finally producing , the only thing that stops the US is if Saudi flushes the market making barrels worthless
ESPECIALLY, the world is WAKING up to the USA Ponzi Pyramid economy house of card collapsing!
EVs are nibbling at oil too. It's hard to see, becauseI think they were slowing growth, and cars are on the road 13 or more years. I'll tell you what, raise prices too much, and it's going to get ugly quick.
FYI Hertz rental car is selling 20,000 EV'S because no one wants to rent them.
@@rickagulia3767 Are they older than ICE cars they sell? No?
OPEC was asked to open the taps when the war in Ukraine started, they did not, don't know what they thought was going to happen, but even I knew the US would step in and fill the void, now they have a problem, investment has already gone back into US oil and gas, so you are looking at a time lag before OPEC can price them out of the market.
Brazil amd Venezuela and every other non-OPEC nation is also ramping up.
The Ukraine Conflict is about Wall Street desire for Russian Resources.
The BRICS Group is drawing more Nations every day.
The USA, is incapable of assembling another Marshall Plan today.
The world is a bit different from the illusion you appear to see.....
Since I bought a used BMW I3 almost three years ago, I've declined purchase on around twenty-three hundred gallons or seven short tons of gasoline. I hope this has increased OPEC's woes to a microscopic degree.
Yup, my Hyundai Kona and solar panels has reduced my gas bill to zero and my electric bill also..
@@kevak1236 Do they work well in the winter or during snow fall?
i sold my pickup truck...got a hybrid. Spend 50% less on gas!
thx!
Its very simple . Us raises output while opec cuts . They gain profits from the higher price with higher production . As they say a win win while opec yes they may get a higher price but on less barrels sold
How long will the US exist economically as 70% of the available resources on this Planet are no longer available for the consumption of the US markets?
If you look at anything but Oil Markets you begin to notice the USA is being shut out?
You can not drink oil.
Hard to flush the market when we have massive viable oil storage.
Don't threaten us with a good time.
it would indeed be a capitulation. USA can just fill up its oil reserves again. Bring it.
Massive viable oil storage? 😀😁that's fake story.
@@maxanderd10 total capacity of 727 million barrels -- maybe even more if its secret
@@morpher44 during war, emergency time, 727 mn barrels may not even last for 20 days 😃😃 the fuel requirement of warships, war planes, tanks, war vehicles is in several millions barrels per day.
Remember, US doesn't fight war on its territory, it fights at enemy territory so imagine fuel requirement to travel to some other far East or middle East nation.
@@maxanderd10 you are doing WW2 calculation. Modern war is battery powered using low cost drones.
The US is energy independent on oil and a net exporter of oil and value added oil products. Europe is importing less oil as the electrification of transportation continues. With China's economic slowdown, the total imports of oil has dropped in the Asian markets.
OPEC can cut production, but the US and all non-OPEC producers will only increase production to take advantage of the price increase. If OPEC floods the market the World economy will accelerate on cheap energy and within a year stabilize higher prices at increased supply.
A lot people in the Industrialized world are retiring. This having massive impact on global oil production.
Great assessment 👏
You can thank Republicans for this 👏
@itsme-qk2vb Environmentalists also blame Clinton, Obama, and Biden for this.
@@itsme-qk2vb You can thank Texas for this
President Biden should just simply announce that he is thinking of greatly expanding oil production in the USA to send the oil markets reeling. Just thinking about it, you understand.
President Biden can't do that, and everyone with a clue knows it. American Presidents do not control oil production or dictate production levels. Private companies do. Capitalism, remember?
He should just offer an unlimited number of drilling permits on federal land
@@millevenon5853 Why? Companies are already producing as much as they want to produce and sitting on thousands of permits they aren't using. With prices falling they aren't going to be looking to develop new wells anyway.
US policy is not a significant constraint on production.
Demand for oil as money becomes unavailable.
Treasury is already struggling to support a Federal Reserve Note in the Bond Markets.
The US Dollar is the next commodity to lose value.
Economic War is Hell.
@@danielhutchinson6604 and what "economic war" would that be?
Pull up a long term DXY chart. The dollar is just fine and isn't facing any serious threat. The US would be better off if the dollar was weaker.
Funny, the Trumpers believe we don't produce oil at all, even though we are producing at record levels. Another point: why do we think consuming our own oil is wiser than saving some in reserve for the future while buying oil on the open market today? Maybe the chat should be "save baby save!!"
"Trumpers" - spoken like a truly fanatic-ish snob.
One thing I always wondered - if oil/gas is going to be obsolete, then why do we need to save it? Did we save telephone switchboards? Did we save telegraphs? Did we save wax production capacity? Saving something that you aim to make obsolete and no longer necessary is just silly.
Also, oil is the hemoglobin of the modern world. Without it, you can go plow a field behind your mule, take four months to cross the country by wagon, or go sit in the ocean waiting for a gust a wind as long as you like.
Everyone knew we were producing at super high levels until your favorite president Biden got into office adding more regulations again. We filled up all of our reserves under Trump that your favorite president Biden used to get the 22 vote out
I always find it funnier that people think that America produces oil. The companies produce oil. it’s not like Joe Biden running an oil company here
Maybe, it should not be used for short term political electioneering!
The economic effects of exploitation do tend to catch up to a Nation as other sources of revenue seem to just fade away?
The US does not exist alone, the Empire needs the support the World can provide.
The fall could be pretty sudden and the bottom could arrive before anticipated.
We were supposed to run out of oil in 1979.
Another win for Biden
You have to chase this thing from several directions in parallel ; keep production high, assure refined stocks are solid, get an increasing volume of BEVs where they make sense and over time, you'll make some significant changes - and certainly prove out tech and charging to be more capable of handling a crisis blockade or such. Although now Canada is our largest import source.... good times.
Is the FED buying Fracking Bonds?
What is the reality of Quantitative Easing?
Is the Government buying the Oil Companies some breathing room?
It’s simple, the United States’s oil industry is the global leader in technology on how to profitably extract and produce a gallon of gas! Let’s do all we can to keep it that way.
good. now the middle east cant play games with our oil
Notice all the interest in sending air craft carriers and other naval ships right next to Iran. Even the British are sending their boats.
Flooding the market will drive the prices down, making drilling less profitable for American companies. Sort of how it was cheaper to import steel than buy the stuff made right down the street in the 80s
"U.S. oil production is a 'real problem for OPEC'..." OPEC. We can do without them. We have our own Oil/Gas. Let's use them.
After shale oil producer' bankruptcy some years back, shale oil now costs much more to be drilled & produced economically & to be profitable.
& with such crude oil volatility of 20-25% correction every after 3-6 months, US oil producers can't really produce shale oil at will. So ultimately u can't use the shale oil reserves that u have.
@@maxanderd10 "...[S]ome years back..." It's 2023, going on 2024. Time for you to catch up. Either way, Middle East, all of it, be damned. No one square inch is worth the time, trouble, or aggravation. America needs our own oil/gas resources.
@@lawrencehawkins7198 So you want to stop using the world price and charge more for a domestic product? Sounds like a bad idea to me. Global trade based on a world price is the smoothest route long term.
my understanding is that the oils are different and that refineries will need to be re-tooled to use the different oil grade.
........................absolutely incorrect. California alone relies on every imported drop.
Regards -
We went from a month ago saying "100 a barrel" to " we have a problem" lolol
People don't understand the innovations in technology on the Shale Oil side of things.
It’s only a problem for Saudi Arabia and a few other opec members who want to reduce production so prices go up so they make more money by selling less
The problem FOR OPEC is that they want high prices but the US is producing record numbers for the US which is helping push prices down which opec does NOT WANT.
Opec wants high prices by reducing supply but the US said let’s produce all we can while prices are high and let opec members keep reducing production
@@diegoharo7943 Your forgetting America lifted the sanctions on Venezuelan oil a month ago, and is now refining a lot of it.
@@mandarinandthetenrings2201 no I’m not
He is telling a very different story now on oil prices. Pity as I believed his forecasts about future oil prices. How they change the narrative so easily.
Because they don't understand the geopolitical thinking. Prince Mohammad wants American base in his country protecting him from Iran. Yea, that is not going happen.
Good
The US has a trick up their sleeve. The US needs to restore their strategic oil reserve. OPEC production goes up and the US buys oil back at lower costs. Maybe give some profits to local oil producers.
That’s what they doing
What about the ocean of oil Exon Movil has in Guyana.
Spare capacity came out of nowhere! Investors had been working with the theory of tight supply. That thesis is no longer valid. It will be a difficult one for O&G equities. Those in the red may have to cut short their losses.
... this didn't come out of nowhere. EVs sold a new record this year of 1 million EVs. Let's say... that on average each EV is replacing a gas car that got 20 mpg and 12,000 miles a year.
It may not sound like much but that's 600,000,000 gallons of gasoline removed from demand in a single year.
That's not including all the previous EV car sales from previous years reducing gasoline demand.
In this article it indicates there are about a total of 2.4 million electric cars on our roads.
Again with the assumption that the average car is driver 12,000 miles a year and got 20mpg overall average efficiency that was replaced -
That's 1.44 million less gallons of gas demand in the US.
There are at this time (minus breakdowns and totalled vehicles) 7.4 million gas electric hybrids on the road.
www.bts.gov/content/gasoline-hybrid-and-electric-vehicle-sales
Which doesn't include 2022 and 2023 data. So, for the purposes of estimation let's assume losses in vehicles are equal to additional hybrids sold in 2022 and 2023.
So 7.4 million hybrids and let's assume they get 50 mpg instead of 20 mp of the cars they are replacing. So, instead of 600 gallons of gas a year its 240 gallons a year.
A savings of 360 gallons a year per car times 7.4 million cars.
That's a removal of demand of gas consumed of another 2.6 billion gallons of gas!
That's 4 billion gallons less gas consumed a year than we did say in years past!
And for every EV or hybrid sold... it's only going to reduce demand more.
Maybe to the point that we can survive on US gas production alone and stop the trade deficit we've had for decades because of oil.
How did this Mr. Sankey ever get anywhere by mumbling through half of what he says. I don't get it.
yeah its like that stephen hawking with that stupid voice. its should never be allowed.
American ingenuity & productivity set standard of excellence for the world!
It's not about economies of scale it's about fewer competitors.
I think, in this horrible time when we need to all set aside our differences and come together, that I speak for all people in non-OPEC nations when I say HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!
The Institute for Energy Research has recently published a new paper showing that a barrel of oil produced in the United States has a much lower environmental impact than a barrel produced somewhere like Venezuela, Nigeria, or Russia!Feb 16, 2023
Why concern about new permits and contracts when refining is tightly defined...makes no sense
Oh, i feel bad for OPEC...... NOT!!
Demand is still higher than supply
no, definitely not. The saudis are still cutting, but they just keep losing market share. The shale growth in the US and conventional oil growth in Guyana, as well as the reversal of decline in Norway truly are stunning
if you can control supply, that is hardly a shock. dont believe everything you hear.
What brand of sweater is that with the Bee logo?
I think Dior
This is a no win situation long term. If the price at the pump goes up you accelerate the sales of EVs and if you go cheap you drive away investors.
Wrong
If you limit the number of players in the field, you will still come out ahead as long as the world still needs oil/natural gas.
The energy source for EVs is crude oil. What does the US energy grid run on? Diesel. What in the energy source for tesla superchargers? Diesel.
@@smh6234crude oil provides 28% of our electricity
@@smh6234 Wrong, diesel is not a major player in electricity production. And the grid is rapidly transitioning to renewables. Just look at Texas. It already was the leader in wind energy, now it is also the leader in solar.
USA! USA! USA!
he said oil would be 130 to 150. how is he in a job?
Oh no what will these petrostates do?
This guy has been so wrong wonder why they keep hosting him
Absolutely. He was saying high oil prices to come. Not going to listen to him or Amrita Sen ever again. Who pays them for their forecasts?
Exactly seems like his good days are in past. These shows are only good so you can banter at a cocktail party lol
Glad there's no such thing as oil production alternatives.
I dont think the 2014 price drop worked out as Saudi Arabia hoped. Dont think they will try that again. But one can hope.
It's all about the greed of these oil companies .
Excellent commentary
Yes, it is. It's a shame the US doesn't have nearly enough refineries to turn all that oil into fuels. But there ya go.
Yet somehow drillers in my state have not drilled and oil well in 6 years and all the wells are shut down.
You expect your claim to be accepted as an important fact when you provide no specifics? Your statement is meaningless without details.
@@TheHardcarda lot of smooth brained boomers make claims based on their mere limited observation of the world …. not based on facts
The us is positioned beautiful all things considered
Everybody is buying motorcycles and it’s going to be hard to keep the price of oil high.
Canada is the biggest exporter of oil to the USA.
Hope USA oil reserves get replenished at these projected prices for oil.
Production is easy. Politics are todays barriers to producers of real wealth.
It’s not politics, it’s the oil companies decision as well. Oil is privately produced and exported in the US. We don’t have state controlled companies like authoritarian dictatorships or Arab monarchies have.
The oil companies produce whatever they feel the market demands. They don’t want to produce too much and tank the price per barrel of oil.
The goal of Exxon Mobil or Chevron is to make as much revenue and profit as possible. They want a good balance between oil prices and oil production capacity. Obviously producing more oil gets them more money, but if they produce too much then prices go down and they make less money despite having higher production
@@tylerclayton6081Norway’s oil and gas is owned by the people and they have a savings account for every citizen of at least a million dollars each in case of an emergency You don’t have to be an authoritarian government to realize your countries natural resources should benefit all of your people not just a handful
@@tylerclayton6081 Shutting down the Keystone pipeline was absolutely political. Joe Biden did that.
@@jonathantaylor6926 and it did almost nothing to stop the relatively cautious extraction growth. There are hundreds of unused licenses companies are sitting on that could break ground tomorrow.
@@brilobox2 It's less about crude oil and more about refining capacity at this point.. but nobody wants to spend billions and billions of dollar building a new refinery that could easily be in use for 50+ years but could also be banned with the stroke of a pen buy insane leftist politicians. The leftist war on oil has consequences- underinvestment being the big one. When you threaten to ban a product, you get less of it.
To heck with OPEC. It will only get worse for them.
Lots of room in the SPR and no one wants Russia's oil so a flush isn't really possible without a lot of coordination.
How quickly things change ,
Hard to eat that oil. Bushel of
Wheat for a barrel of oil,
How true, that could become a
Reality,
Saudi don't wanna play ball with US, US now taking their market share 😂
why is no one talking about canada? if they start exporting with the suspected conservative win things could get worse for saudi
Close the fracking domestic refining gap with new regional refineries spaced around the shale belt and stop the flood call leveraging and oil war financing and consumer voters will love the industry theyve come to loath for pushing them from pillar to post.
good..screw them....havent forgiven the 70's
He seems one of alien leaders?
But can the USA make a profit
oil is king
If OPEC tries to flush it by adding 2 million barrels all United States has to do is cut 2 million.
Would not like to be a saudi oil executive now or in the foreseeable future. So many electric cars joining the roads in the west every day and Africa will probably jump over the hybrid tech stage directly to electric scooters charged with solar and then small electric cars manufactured in India for the African urban areas. Same goes for South America. Chinese gov is really starting to get worried about their air quality in cities, so expect more restrictions for the gas cars.
There will be very few places on Earth that want oil products in their urban cars in 5 years time.
US shale is hitting a high before it rolls off a cliff. Why are inventories low if oil is so abundant?
because Biden had previously brought the world price of oil down by dumping national reserves onto the market. This was in response to what OPEC+ was trying to do. It seems the Biden strategy may pay off here if OPEC+ has to increase production to lower the price.
Don't forget we no we refining Venezuelan oil as well now.
That because people are selling into the curve. Also, America is flooding the market in gasoline and diesel as well to make sure the security alliance stays strong. Countries like Britain or India need affordable oil right now.
Inventory is not low. WTF you talking about
The USA should really use hydrogen as vehicles' main power source.
Wtf in socal gas is still over five dollars a gallon
Paradise is expensive.
Thank your dimorad government. Ohio is $2.70 a gallon and slowly falling.
@@willgallatin2802 15% ethanol in Iowa $2.65 to $2.40
Prices in south central CT are between $3.10 & $3.50.
The views of "top energy analyst Paul Sankey" are respectful, but in real life do not apply. U.S. oil production increase is not any problem for OPEC producers, they feel comfortable with restricted production levels. The real problem is hidden, and I think the problems are ahead, the demand is increasing even consumers pay higher prices everyday. This is slowing down normal economic developement on US and even more this is damaging economy on all oil importing countries. The challenge will be more severe when the US shale oil production will be more expensive for operators.
Saudi flush
They'll never recover
Got no love for the industry
This is completely backwards why would Saudi want to sell oil cheaper. They just need to wait for the markets to respond. They if anything should reduce production more to support higher prices. How would dumping more oil into the market improve profits for them.
OPEC would like to crush US oil production. The best way to do that is to make it not profitable. Funny thing though, the US really does not need their oil, it is used to make what we have in the ground here last longer. That's why both Obama and Trump were willing to have US oil producers drilling like mad for over a decade.
They can produce oil at lower costs than most of the other oil exporters, including the U.S. and Canada. If oil goes below $40 a barrel, Saudi Arabia can still make money while shale oil producers in the west start to lose money (and eventually go bankrupt). Saudi Arabia regains the plurality of production and they can influence where the market goes.
Yeap, that's why Joe went against US production.
Anybody else find an interesting that we didn’t have this problem under Trump
Why would Saudi Arabia do that destroying their own economy
They want to take out the competition. You really dont understand that?
You're not very intelligent are you?
If they over produce and drop the per barrel price then producers who extract gas at higher cost make no profit. So SA will hold the price low for as long as it takes to wipe out competition. Then raise it again when they have less competition and can control the market and pricing. Capitalism at work.
Except this top energy analyst wont tell you that anerican oil production is always dependant on high prices . Russia is cutting production in order to increase its influence in the middle east by helping the saudis and in order to beat thr ridicoulous price limit but otherwise the russians can make a profit with 50 dollars a barrell as well abd even less and with constant colossal increses in agribusiness and industrial production theyll need even less in the future . What about the gas station ?
Make OPEC broke, we don't need those dictatorial creatures.
OPEC will flood the world with cheap oil hoping to slow the demand for EVs.
About time to get off Open oil, disgusting!
Maybe its not as simple as I'm thinking. OPEC should be crashing the price in order to make US production non viable but they are trying to maintain prices.
that is what he means by "flush".
They have tried this multiple times and it did not work...as we see the US oil industry booming more than ever
They can't because once the price of oil get certain low price level the American producers will shutdown their operation instead of losing money.
@@mandarinandthetenrings2201 Or, Biden has the option of flipping a switch and using only domestic oil in the country. This isolationist oil plan is there if Opec+ gets all weird.
@@mandarinandthetenrings2201Exactly right. All one has to do is study the real estate market in the Permian to see what the state of US extraction is at the moment. The last time two times I drove through Midland and Odessa was during the Trump presidency and several months into the Biden regime. The differences couldn’t have been more stark. The populations of the two directly correlate to the layoffs and hiring cycles within U.S. oil and gas industry.
Dear Saudi, if you don't want to sell oil, just flush your oil down the toilet! There are many other players who welcome this because it will let them sell at a higher price while producing more oil!
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For a shareholder let the price of oil and gas go up
Also, for those who want the planet to go green, let the price of oil go way up. This will incentivize going green. Everyone will be highly motivated to come up with other solutions.
Oh dear! The WORLD has been running out of oil for 170 years now!
The United States has been the largest producer of oil in the world for many of those 170 years, and what is happening? New record oil output!
I remember environmentalists CONFIDENTLY predicting "peak oil" in year 2000. WHAT HAS HAPPENED to these environmentalists predictions!
Trump: AMERICA FIRST ...... Biden: AMERICAN LAST !!!!
Not just U.S. production. EV's have replaced 2% of gasoline cars on the road resulting in 2% lower demand for gasoline. Given the lower fuel prices- people in gasoline cars *will* drive more and eat up that difference but EV's will *continue* to destroy demand for fuel at increasing rates over the next 7 years when new ice cars will be banned in many countries and states.
OOOOH 2%! I mean, that's *totally* just as impactful as the actual topic.
@@JohnSmith-uy2jg I've got some bad news for you; we don't and won't have the infrastructure to expand EV production. I know economics is a complicated subject for people like you, but try and research it some more.
@@chrisjackson1215every good thing has to start from somewhere
@@pudanielson1 It does. But that doesn't excuse ignorance. If people want good things to happen they need to understand them first. Wishful thinking is poison.
As well as boomers retiring so they don’t need to drive to work anymore
And the MAGA crowd complains Joe is raising gas prices
I’ll try to make this less intelligent for you to understand. MAGA isn’t complaining about Joe raising gas prices, they’re complaining about Joe doing nothing to lower them. I know that was probably really, really hard for you to comprehend but it was worth a shot.
The former President, the one you probably mocked as the Twitter-In-Chief, successfully lowered gas prices with single tweets on several documented occasions. This is something the old brainless child sniffer in office can’t do because nobody respects him, literally.
Shh 🤫🤫🤫 They don't know that 😂
As someone in the trucking industry we are still taking it up the ass and have been for the last 3 years. Please Lower these prices.
@@brownjatt21 President doesn't control gas prices. What Biden has been accused of is the lack of oil production, which is complete nonsense
Election coming up so of course Biden will pump more oil to bring prices down. And as soon as Democrats win they will stop pumping oil and prices will go back up. Its all manipulated.
No analysis here.
Just all about me.
Bad prediction.
Oil Production has never been the problem, these guys are idiots, it's about having people to buy what we produce !
That happens because of a combination of economics and chemistry. The economics are simple: overseas oil, even after shipping costs, is often cheaper than domestically-produced crude. And, while the U.S. does produce enough oil to meet its own needs, it is often the wrong type of oil.
Saudis own Exxon/Mobil and Chevron/Texaco Saudi Arabia is OPEC. The USA has no large refineries let. We have Sinclair in Wyoming and Sunoco in New Jersey Sunoco refinery in Houston Valaro is refined in Houston ARCO Phillips 66 which Berkshire Hathaesy used to oen but sold. Tha5s about it for large refineries
Man you forgot Marathon in Ohio
my solar panels and tesla puts me in a better spot from these suckers
Yeah, we were energy independent in 2019 and the mainstream media cried like little girls .
"Paul Sankey" is an anagram for "Sulky Paean" (or alternatively, "Snake Layup"). -----
The world must get off the use of oil.
Don't worry about the world. Quit using oil YOURSELF ---NOW!
The US and Canada has all the oil we need if biden would open up the oil supply
The US is producing at record levels. Nobody needs to open up the oil supply because nobody ever closed it.
Oil production is a real problem for 2 reasons, first, oil demand and usage is declining, and second, oil reserves are rapidly declining and will be virtually depleted by the 2060's.
Well according to the "Club of Rome" we should have run out out oil by now.
"Depleted" according to whom? Hydrocarbons are the second most abundant liquid on the planet and we don't really know where it comes from or how it's made. For all we know the planet MAKES it. Besides, there are plenty of non-oil options.
@@thedailygreatness I don't know if you know this but there has been new break through in "Green Energy". Using the new fracking technology the oil driller have found hot spots beneath the earth crust of course this is nothing new. But now by cracking open the shale to these hot spots you can pump water and create steam. The steam the can create electricity. It got a lot people in the "Green Community" very excited.
@@thedailygreatness It like having geo thermal electricity without having to go near an active "volcano".
Did you even listen to the video? Oil demand is at an all time high!
I ONLY seek gas stations below $2.77/G! Americans are sooo poor now due to criminal businesses not paying livable wages, that has has to drop back to $0.99/G permanently for the next 50 years!
HAHA, FUNNY, THE USA PRODUCTION COST IS 40 DOLLARS PER BARREL, SO GAS PRICES CAN NEVER GO BELOW 2 DOLLRS PER GALLON, OTHERWISE THE USA WILL SLOW OR STOP PRODUCING OIL , ELECTRIC CARS NOW ARE TAKING OVER THE SCENE ALL AROUND THE WORLD COAL IS DEAD, OIL IS ON THE WAY OUT
ROFL Take a good look at the taxes on a gallon of gas in your state. In Ohio it is $1.41 a gallon in taxes. The current pump price with taxes is $2.75 a gallon today. $.99 a gallon died in the 70's
YES, SOMEONE HAS TO PAY FOR THE ROADS, EVEN NOW ALL ELECTRIC CARS WILL HAVE A ROAD TAX BILL SENT TO THEM EVERY YEAR @@willgallatin2802
Not really. US has left with really low quantity of recoverable Crude oil reserves that could last only till the end of 2025 with current oil production.
US is left with only around 10 bn barrels of recoverable crude oil.
US shale oil drilling now costs more than $70 per barrel to break even. & most of the shale oil assets are now completely shut & will never surface.
OPEC+ ARE THE ONLY ONES WHICH CAN PRODUCE LARGE CRUDE OIL FOR LONGER TIME TILL 2030-2050.
@@muhlenberg2608 nope, those are shale oil reserves & most of it almost 60-70% not going to be drilled due to shale oil bankruptcy happened some years back.
& yes, earlier I had mistyped 1 bn barrels instead of 10 bn barrels of recoverable crude oil reserves US has.
US holds around 10-11 bn barrels of recoverable crude oil reserves which will be completely depleted in next 2-2.5 years with current crude oil production rate.
U will see ur self by 2025 end 😊
@@muhlenberg2608 the idea is that in order to make shale oil ( the reserves that ur talking) an economically feasible, profitable option for energy, the crude oil prices must touch $150 per barrel by 2025 end & then u may see shale oil drilling getting started while the recoverable crude oil reserved get depleted completely in US. 😊
So, OPEC+ will try it's best to keep crude oil close to $100-120 per barrel by 2025-2026 & not exceed towards $150 to keep shale oil away from markets.
@@muhlenberg2608 it's tricky situation isn't it?
@@muhlenberg2608 u will see it by ur self, but u will have to wait for 2,2.5 years😃
@@muhlenberg2608 but not much oil, it has large shale gas resources.
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