Thanks for watching everyone. I'll try stay on top of the bot comments, but if you see some, please help me out in reporting them. We will defeat the bots!
Hey, can you do a video on how many times China has already "collapsed" over the past 30 years? Maybe you can invite Gordan Chang on as a guest to talk about it 😂
Good, housing prices was propped up by the government. All housing should be affordable, China made a huge mistake by propping up its home prices. Canada, Australia and UK needs to bring down their home prices too.
@@NewMoneyRUclips Yes, housing is now a tool to extract labor and other values from the general population. This is because everyone needs housing, its a necessity being used for wealth transfer and extraction. People needs to wake up and fight back!
In a sense it's true. The yen keeps dropping, Koreans are not having children, and Chinese new graduates can't find a job. That's just East Asia, imagine the entirety of it.
You are showing Chinese data as fact. The actual prices are so much worse. The light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train coming the other way, its called Demographics.
Exactly. It's so frustrating when they show their data as a fact. Like you don't understand the concept of lying. They are lying about literally everything. Everything is fake.
Our economy is struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the Chinese Yuan losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my ¥420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
How is the price of property going down a bad thing. High property prices are only good for the 1% and even then only to brag. It helps literally no one
@@NeidlichesSchwert Er hat Recht, hohe Immobilienpreise schaedigen allen, bis auf die Wohnungsspekulanten, wenn die Leute weniger auf Unterkunft ausgeben, dann gibt es mehr Konsum zum anderen Zwecken.
Just imagine your parents paid off their house and it’s now worth $1 million dollars. They figure when they retire they will sell it and buy a cheaper house in the country side. They figure they have it made so go many expensive over seas holidays buy a new car instead of investing elsewhere and saving for there retirement. Now all of a sudden there house is only worth 500,000 and it’s not enough to retire on. This is why falling house prices hurts as they can use the house as collateral to borrow more and usually feel wealthy.
@@8towely Exactly. Most of the private wealth in the country is tied up in the real estate market meaning that enormous numbers of Chinese citizens are seeing not just an investment, but their life’s work erode catastrophically. And that is just one of the big hits as a result of this debacle . I only have a peripheral interest in the economics as it ties into my main area of concern, how it affects the socio-political and defense issues, but it did not take long for me to see just how bad this situation truly is.
@@8towelyIn my opinion, houses SHOULD NOT BE AN INVESTMENT! Houses should be affordable after 5 years on a median wage. The average home price right now should be around 75k. The reason it is so high today is because corporations buy houses and hold on to them. We need to build enough homes to keep down the price to a reasonable level. Homes should be about as important as a car. If you want to make money on a purchase, you should be buying stocks. A place to live shouldn't be a retirement goal.
Lowering property prices is a good thing. Housing seen as an "investment" vehicle is the bad thing which will eventually be corrected in China (for the good) seeing the fall in property prices
@@biometal770 i do not mind if people use it as investment instrument, that is normal. But be prepared for when the bubble would burst. Don't be too greedy. I'm looking at housing in australia and canada and their price are all inflated bubbles, so naturally someone who is risk averse will avoid the real estate industry in those countries amirite? And if I was a young migrant in aussie myself, and if I was thinking about bestowing inheritence, I'd rather keep the assets in gold or silver. Heck, even bitcoin feels 'safer' than real estate. Only then once the bubble bursts would be the time to buy our own houses.
A good addition to BABA and JD's falling sales figures is the massive rise of PDD. PDD is a similar platform but heavily focuses on cheap but lesser-quality products. This shows a fundamental shift in consumer trends in China. For the past 30 years, Chinese people have increasingly desired premium products with higher quality. Now we are seeing a total reversal. For producers it's a race to the bottom.
Could you comment on the differences been the Chinese and Australian housing markets? Both markets are seeing construction companies collapsing and ongoing projects being stalled. Yet in China property prices (new and old) are dropping, while prices are going up in Australia.
Loved the ending there! I'm a little tired of the naked China bashing you see everywhere you go, so to hear someone offer a balanced and pragmatic take is more than refreshing! People seem to forget China is the second largest economy in the world and one of the largest buyers of global commodities.
As a side note; Social Security and Banks also work in very similar way to Ponzi Schemes In contrast to Ponzi Schemes; Social Security is not voluntary (at least in my country). Using banks are voluntary but not using them leaves you very little choice to survive in the modern world
Most Americans find it hard to retire comfortably amid economy crisis. Some have close to nothing going into retirement, my question is, do I pull cash from my 401k and buy a house, or spread my money in stocks for cashflow? I'd love to afford my lifestyle after retirement?
Using a 401(k) or IRA is a valuable strategy for retirement planning, providing potential savings growth and tax advantages. While the stock market is promising, expert guidance is essential for effective portfolio management
you are totally wrong, chinese can't own anything!!! all this is owned by the state, they can only be leased for 70 years. so you are completely wrong from the beginning of the video
Look at the previous years growth when people say there is a lose its kind of irrelevant if you have seen 200-300% price increase in there assets. It's like in Australia people say that prices have slowed or reversed in some states but it's barely a change once you take in a decade of growth. The Chinese government doesn't seemed too worried they didn't really do any stimulus even during COVID so I doubt there is any news here.
With the rise of outrageous HOA fees across the country, I question just how much Americans really "own" their own home when they have to pay an HOA fee that's higher per month than many Chinese renters pay per month to rent a home.
I love your channel but not this kind of clickbait videos. If I am 'predicting' a market crash with the s&p in all time highs for three years I am obviously going to guess.
It's not collapsing the economy, you can't live in a world where China's economy is collapsing from real estate while simultaneously its EV, solar panels are most tariff product
It can be. If the working class pensions are all tied up in the housing market a crash in said market will lead to the working class being unable to retire. Not to mention the jobs generated in the house building sector
Xi's power is more tenuous that it seems from reading the ABC and SMH. It's also not the 1930s anymore, there is no possibility of blitzkrieg, only nuclear war. A major confrontation likely won't happen at all because all major powers know that such action would rapidly devolve into nuclear war, and they may as well skip the invasions and just press the button to begin with. I have no love for China, we should shift taxes from citizens to imports, but Hitler simply isn't possible any longer. There is only nuclear holocaust. The major powers know each other's red lines, even if they don't admit them in public.
Unfortunately, China can't just import people through immigration to prop up demand across all sectors like here in Australia. They have to rely on their own population, which is unfortunately on the decline. Having said that, the Chinese government is one of few governments in the developed world that have the balls and ability to take drastic actions to solve a crisis.
Translated: China is a communist country that would gleefully imprison Uighurs in forced labor camps and confiscate resources from the public at large for quick bandaid fixes, all in the name of “stability”. Strong-arming an unarmed population for the next band-aid fix is not brave. It’s tyrannical and short-sighted.
However, for the China&CCP doomsayer, it's worth noting that the drop shipping trend and new platforms focusing on consumers outside of China are gaining momentum. This is shown by the Meta's data on ads spend. If no new tariffs are in place the export rebound might impact the Chinese economy in a much-needed "positive way".
Things like that happen. Let's remember the unification of East and West Germany. "Blossoming landscapes" were promised. The German state pumped a lot of money into East Germany. Construction took place, renovations were carried out and real estate was sold as investments, with guaranteed subsidies for 10 years. The subsidies were intended to fill the gap between the rent levels in West German metropolises and East German metropolises. Around 2005, state subsidies ran out. The result was private bankruptcies and many apartments at spot prices on the real estate market. At that time, you could buy 10-year-old new-build or completely renovated apartments for half or less of the original purchase price. The rents at the time were so low that many property owners who had bought a property as a retirement plan could not keep it. These are the principles of capitalism. And: In every crisis there are opportunities. Anyone who bought property in Leipzig and Dresden at reasonable prices between 2005 and 2007 is now enjoying high increases in value and increased rents.
For Australia and certain other commodity-rich nations it's a different story but, with respect to most of the rest of the world, macroeconomists do NOT agree that China's economic meltdown will cause much if any overall harm. First, China's economy is only around half as big as China says it is. For that reason alone China's economic woes affect the rest of the world less than people think. Second, due to the balance of payments between China and the many nations that have a trade deficit with it, most nations will lose little as China's growth falls -- because China uses up so much of the world's demand leaving less for other nations to satisfy. Again, commodity-rich nations may lose as China's economy falls. But, again, some nations will gain. As for the US, the macroeconomists that I listen to -- the ones who really know China -- say that, as China's growth falls the US either benefits slightly or that it's more or less a wash. Note, however, that these macroeconomists don't consider the costs that China imposes on the world through its cheating, plundering, and vandalism, that is, the costs attributable to China's IP theft, unfair competition, espionage, cyber warfare, economic and political coercion, land grabs, disinformation campaigns, threats of military force and the resulting increases in defense spending among threatened nations, and myriad other ways in which China abuses its power and subverts the liberal order. If macroeconomists did include all of these imposed costs in their calculations, it would be clearer to them that, as China's economy suffers giving it less power to impose its will, the world outside China benefits overall.
The 90s% ownership number is misguided. You are not allowed to "own" RE in China, it belongs to the state and you buy it on 99 year leases, unless your CCP special. Thus, 90% of Chinese citizens own rights to 99 year leases from the state.
actually, it is not 99 years, but 70 years record in the property certificate. when it excessed 70 years, you can rebuild the building over the same land, but you need to pay tax to the government again.
@@joelzinho4600We do, he's just trying to deflect his lack of real estate knowledge in this video. He will probably say something like the British Monarchy owns all land in Commonwealth countries just like the CCP owns all land in Chinese countries but it's a really bad comparison
@@pipiqiqi4010 people don't usually rebuild, they just pay a kind of tax to continue living in the same building, that is, if it's still standing after 70 years lol
Another video, another news I wasnt aware of. Keep making great videos, Brandon. And please include Turkey news as well. You will find interesting stuff, to say the least.
GDP is the annual aggregate of production in an economy. Das all. Like the joke goes: paying someone to dig a hole and cover it up makes GDP go up too. In the PRC's case, their GDP has benefitted from the end of the lockdown downs (higher-ish tourism for example) and massive exports setting a high floor. Throw in government spending and new energy industrial activity and it about makes up for the crater diminished housing activity caused.
I read The China GDP figure was rigged by to make it larger. Eg they readjusted prev year figure lower before calculating... Young adult unemployment is at record highs example 10m uni graduates each year chasing 5m jobs. Collapsed of bricks n mortar retailing, sharp increase in foreclosures .... 500,000 property foreclosures Vs 20,000 etc. more in pipeline as takes up to 2years from default to auction etc
Nice videos very informative i would like for you to do a video on the UAE economy get your take on it. Since there is so much hype around it see if its worth it 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙏🏻
It’s a great opportunity to buy state own conglomerates and banks. For example CCB was trading at below 4 PE, 7-8% yield and a 30% payout. An other example is Ping an Insurance and CITIC, citic is pay around 7% yield it’s 70-90% under value because of its debt however half its debt barrow from the Chinese central bank and citic is own by the Chinese government meaning they are not going to call on those loan as long as the CCP still in power. Did I also mention there is 0% dividend and capital gain tax. Chinese dividend stock give a better return than Hong Kong real estate. Sold several houses after price to rent went from 17 to 20+ then bought Chinese dividend stock and road the capital gain and 3-4 years of dividend. I not just save money in tax, security fees and lost rent. I pay no tax in any of my stock activity.
It's not really urbanization that spurred them to make so many ghost towns. There were excessive building in the rural areas as the government were paying huge compensations for homes acquired for public projects. If you have a 200 sqm 3 story building, you will be compensated 3 apartments each 200 sqm or the amount equivalent. That's why there's this commonly known term 暴发户, which mean household who suddenly got rich. I travel to China regularly and to the remote areas. The sentiments have drastically changed. Pre-covid, everyone was fighting for every inch of land they are possibly entitled to, fighting with their family for their ancestral land. Paying good money to fence up and claim their properties. The last trip I went in March, people are saying that the govt is broke and no longer buying. The number of homes a PRC own is unbelievable, especially in the rural area. They will hope to have one in the city they work in or where they plan their family, and another ancestral land for retirement or burial after death. But most are glad to forsake their ancestoral land if the government is willing to acquire from them
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” Jefferson wrote. ” If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around(these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.” “ The issuing power of currency shall be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
China could be the first country in the history of the world to end homelessness due to the surplus of empty housing. The Chinese government doesn't have a housing bubble because it is an authoritarian and state-controlled economy, managing all monetary and economic policies. We keep looking at it as a Western economics of a free market. But China's not that.
Don’t know if you’ll get to it… but you start buy saying 90% of Chinese own their own home… and that isn’t quite true. You lease homes from the government and don’t own the permanent rights. But maybe you’ll bring that up later in the video.
@@carlosnavarro-cj2jv but if you pay your taxes, the property still belongs to you or your family. In china, the building won't even last as long as your renting the land it's on.
@@markgarin6355 neither usa, a lot of wood structures will need work, but regardless having to constantly pay the government to keep your property I'd basically a lease 🤷♂️
@@carlosnavarro-cj2jv Yes, you need to pay taxes in the US. But if you pay your taxes, you have perpetual rights to the land and the structures on it. And even if you don’t pay your taxes, the government needs to take you to court, where if you can’t pay your debts, they can maybe get a lien or claim. In China, even if you literally follow every law and pay every tax, you still don’t own your home or it’s land.
This is exactly how it happens in India as well, the pre-construction projects turn into Ponzi scheme if they don't get money from previous projects' completion.
Kinda sad and funny at same time. China's got so many houses their knocking down buildings, in america we don't have enough homes for people who want them. Prices sky high!😂
Investing in Property or 2nd homes is a great investment if there are enough people needing to rent But when 90% of the population own homes already how is investing in property going to get you returns. If they sit there empty then obviously prices will go down and you are going to be paying for something nobody wants. That’s just bad business You can give councils instructions to buy them and turn them into affordable housing but then who is going to buy or live in the affordable housing cos 90% already have homes It’s just kicking the can down the road
China is not the biggest engine of global growth. China has been the largest component of global growth only in an arithmetical sense. China's overall effect on the rest of the world is actually to undermine growth somewhat -- because China sucks up much of the demand that otherwise would be satisfied by other countries. The country that supplies the most demand -- and therefore IS the biggest engine of global growth -- is the US. By a huge margin it is the US that generates the largest amount of the demand that drives growth for the world (albeit not for commodity-rich nations that supply China).
Chinese people's balance sheet damage coupled with sky high debt level, private and govt, results in a classical liquidity trap; which sees no light in the tunnel yet.
So china is not allowed an economic downturn? Why don’t you make a video about building in san fran selling for 90% off. Not because of economic downturn, but because of crime and bad policies.
Thanks for watching everyone. I'll try stay on top of the bot comments, but if you see some, please help me out in reporting them. We will defeat the bots!
Hey, can you do a video on how many times China has already "collapsed" over the past 30 years?
Maybe you can invite Gordan Chang on as a guest to talk about it 😂
👍💪
Chinese banks have had to close over 15000 branches. The bankruptcies are coming in their rural banking system
Bro has been crying for 2 yrs, please make a video after the collapse
@@darthvadeth6290😂😂😂😂😂 gordon chang... 😂😂😂😂😂
Good, housing prices was propped up by the government. All housing should be affordable, China made a huge mistake by propping up its home prices. Canada, Australia and UK needs to bring down their home prices too.
It's crazy how expensive some markets are becoming now.
@@NewMoneyRUclips Yes, housing is now a tool to extract labor and other values from the general population. This is because everyone needs housing, its a necessity being used for wealth transfer and extraction. People needs to wake up and fight back!
Consumer spending in China can be expected to continue growing as long as real estate keeps falling
Just like the US had an unprecedented economic boom for a decade after people were no longer forced to waste as much on mere housing
@@SigFigNewton You are 100% correct, high housing costs suck too much money from people's income.
China’s economy has already collapsed million times on RUclips, how could it be collapsing once again?🤣🤣🤣
Americans love to hear that, also that Asia is swarming of blood thirsty dictators.
May not be collapsing, but the real estate market is not doing well at all
In a sense it's true. The yen keeps dropping, Koreans are not having children, and Chinese new graduates can't find a job. That's just East Asia, imagine the entirety of it.
Love that term “a little bit of a ponzi scheme” 😂
And "a bit" is, arguably, an euphemism in this context.
You are showing Chinese data as fact. The actual prices are so much worse. The light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train coming the other way, its called Demographics.
Um… you provide no alternative data?
I’m not refusing to believe you
Exactly. It's so frustrating when they show their data as a fact. Like you don't understand the concept of lying. They are lying about literally everything. Everything is fake.
Trust Chinese government data at your peril.
@@SigFigNewton Nobody can provide alternative data from China especially after they kicked out foreign media. This is not news.
im glad china actively break the bubble by themselves
Our economy is struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the Chinese Yuan losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my ¥420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
How is the price of property going down a bad thing. High property prices are only good for the 1% and even then only to brag. It helps literally no one
Lol. Go to school, son.
@@NeidlichesSchwert Er hat Recht, hohe Immobilienpreise schaedigen allen, bis auf die Wohnungsspekulanten, wenn die Leute weniger auf Unterkunft ausgeben, dann gibt es mehr Konsum zum anderen Zwecken.
Just imagine your parents paid off their house and it’s now worth $1 million dollars. They figure when they retire they will sell it and buy a cheaper house in the country side. They figure they have it made so go many expensive over seas holidays buy a new car instead of investing elsewhere and saving for there retirement. Now all of a sudden there house is only worth 500,000 and it’s not enough to retire on.
This is why falling house prices hurts as they can use the house as collateral to borrow more and usually feel wealthy.
@@8towely Exactly. Most of the private wealth in the country is tied up in the real estate market meaning that enormous numbers of Chinese citizens are seeing not just an investment, but their life’s work erode catastrophically. And that is just one of the big hits as a result of this debacle .
I only have a peripheral interest in the economics as it ties into my main area of concern, how it affects the socio-political and defense issues, but it did not take long for me to see just how bad this situation truly is.
@@8towelyIn my opinion, houses SHOULD NOT BE AN INVESTMENT! Houses should be affordable after 5 years on a median wage. The average home price right now should be around 75k. The reason it is so high today is because corporations buy houses and hold on to them. We need to build enough homes to keep down the price to a reasonable level. Homes should be about as important as a car. If you want to make money on a purchase, you should be buying stocks. A place to live shouldn't be a retirement goal.
Lowering property prices is a good thing. Housing seen as an "investment" vehicle is the bad thing which will eventually be corrected in China (for the good) seeing the fall in property prices
This is true, but a generations retirement wealth is decimated
@@biometal770 this is why property is a bad investment instrument
@@ArifWiwitan I think some people expect the value to grow. Housing should not be used as a growth investment.
@@biometal770 i do not mind if people use it as investment instrument, that is normal. But be prepared for when the bubble would burst. Don't be too greedy. I'm looking at housing in australia and canada and their price are all inflated bubbles, so naturally someone who is risk averse will avoid the real estate industry in those countries amirite? And if I was a young migrant in aussie myself, and if I was thinking about bestowing inheritence, I'd rather keep the assets in gold or silver. Heck, even bitcoin feels 'safer' than real estate. Only then once the bubble bursts would be the time to buy our own houses.
A good addition to BABA and JD's falling sales figures is the massive rise of PDD. PDD is a similar platform but heavily focuses on cheap but lesser-quality products. This shows a fundamental shift in consumer trends in China. For the past 30 years, Chinese people have increasingly desired premium products with higher quality. Now we are seeing a total reversal. For producers it's a race to the bottom.
Please include the research material links also. Thank you 😊
Could you comment on the differences been the Chinese and Australian housing markets? Both markets are seeing construction companies collapsing and ongoing projects being stalled. Yet in China property prices (new and old) are dropping, while prices are going up in Australia.
This
Loved the ending there!
I'm a little tired of the naked China bashing you see everywhere you go, so to hear someone offer a balanced and pragmatic take is more than refreshing!
People seem to forget China is the second largest economy in the world and one of the largest buyers of global commodities.
the "clothed" PRC/CCP bashing are often more interesting to spot :)
As a side note; Social Security and Banks also work in very similar way to Ponzi Schemes
In contrast to Ponzi Schemes; Social Security is not voluntary (at least in my country). Using banks are voluntary but not using them leaves you very little choice to survive in the modern world
They are ALL PONZI SCHEMES. those you mentioned are just legal.
Most Americans find it hard to retire comfortably amid economy crisis. Some have close to nothing going into retirement, my question is, do I pull cash from my 401k and buy a house, or spread my money in stocks for cashflow? I'd love to afford my lifestyle after retirement?
Using a 401(k) or IRA is a valuable strategy for retirement planning, providing potential savings growth and tax advantages. While the stock market is promising, expert guidance is essential for effective portfolio management
you are totally wrong, chinese can't own anything!!! all this is owned by the state, they can only be leased for 70 years. so you are completely wrong from the beginning of the video
Funny how there are people actually talking about buying houses in China.
after the 70 years is up you can just renew it, so yes. You own the house
Look at the previous years growth when people say there is a lose its kind of irrelevant if you have seen 200-300% price increase in there assets. It's like in Australia people say that prices have slowed or reversed in some states but it's barely a change once you take in a decade of growth. The Chinese government doesn't seemed too worried they didn't really do any stimulus even during COVID so I doubt there is any news here.
Honestly most of these homes are second homes for almost 70% of Chinese homeowners.
A great channel. Thanks for continuing the perspectives.
Thanks for the comment!
Sure would be a shame if Chinese investors had to sell their property in the US to cover their losses...
Do you think the same people own in both countries?
@@jermunitz3020would you be surprised
China’s developer learnt from Malaysia. 😂
Actually, chinese do not own their home. They lease them for 70 years. American do own their own home and land. Great content.
Americans own their home if they pay taxes.
With the rise of outrageous HOA fees across the country, I question just how much Americans really "own" their own home when they have to pay an HOA fee that's higher per month than many Chinese renters pay per month to rent a home.
more propaganda
I was about to say the same. 90% of Chinese do not own their homes, they lease them. Maybe CCP members can own their own houses? 🤔
IIRC american dont own the land, they just owned the property.
I love your channel but not this kind of clickbait videos. If I am 'predicting' a market crash with the s&p in all time highs for three years I am obviously going to guess.
Great analysis! I love the video. Thanks.
It's not collapsing the economy, you can't live in a world where China's economy is collapsing from real estate while simultaneously its EV, solar panels are most tariff product
Imagine trying to package the fact that prices are falling as something bad for the working class. Delulu.
It can be. If the working class pensions are all tied up in the housing market a crash in said market will lead to the working class being unable to retire. Not to mention the jobs generated in the house building sector
Amazing video. please keep us updated with China's economy situation 🙏🏼
Getting along with a dictatorship, yeah that's wise policy down the line. Ask Britain how appeasement worked out in the 1930s
Appeasing the Brits were worst for people across the world
I am also deeply shocked by his ignorance of geopolitics
@@Storgaaardit's like all boomer politicians
Xi's power is more tenuous that it seems from reading the ABC and SMH. It's also not the 1930s anymore, there is no possibility of blitzkrieg, only nuclear war. A major confrontation likely won't happen at all because all major powers know that such action would rapidly devolve into nuclear war, and they may as well skip the invasions and just press the button to begin with.
I have no love for China, we should shift taxes from citizens to imports, but Hitler simply isn't possible any longer. There is only nuclear holocaust. The major powers know each other's red lines, even if they don't admit them in public.
So you're telling me they didn't cozy up to dictators after that? 😂😂
Unfortunately, China can't just import people through immigration to prop up demand across all sectors like here in Australia. They have to rely on their own population, which is unfortunately on the decline. Having said that, the Chinese government is one of few governments in the developed world that have the balls and ability to take drastic actions to solve a crisis.
Translated: China is a communist country that would gleefully imprison Uighurs in forced labor camps and confiscate resources from the public at large for quick bandaid fixes, all in the name of “stability”.
Strong-arming an unarmed population for the next band-aid fix is not brave. It’s tyrannical and short-sighted.
However, for the China&CCP doomsayer, it's worth noting that the drop shipping trend and new platforms focusing on consumers outside of China are gaining momentum. This is shown by the Meta's data on ads spend. If no new tariffs are in place the export rebound might impact the Chinese economy in a much-needed "positive way".
Is it just me? Or the red down arrows look like a middle finger? 😂
Things like that happen. Let's remember the unification of East and West Germany. "Blossoming landscapes" were promised. The German state pumped a lot of money into East Germany. Construction took place, renovations were carried out and real estate was sold as investments, with guaranteed subsidies for 10 years. The subsidies were intended to fill the gap between the rent levels in West German metropolises and East German metropolises.
Around 2005, state subsidies ran out. The result was private bankruptcies and many apartments at spot prices on the real estate market. At that time, you could buy 10-year-old new-build or completely renovated apartments for half or less of the original purchase price. The rents at the time were so low that many property owners who had bought a property as a retirement plan could not keep it.
These are the principles of capitalism. And: In every crisis there are opportunities. Anyone who bought property in Leipzig and Dresden at reasonable prices between 2005 and 2007 is now enjoying high increases in value and increased rents.
Fantastic content. Interesting, informative and genuinely different from much of the other financial content out there on RUclips.
For Australia and certain other commodity-rich nations it's a different story but, with respect to most of the rest of the world, macroeconomists do NOT agree that China's economic meltdown will cause much if any overall harm. First, China's economy is only around half as big as China says it is. For that reason alone China's economic woes affect the rest of the world less than people think. Second, due to the balance of payments between China and the many nations that have a trade deficit with it, most nations will lose little as China's growth falls -- because China uses up so much of the world's demand leaving less for other nations to satisfy. Again, commodity-rich nations may lose as China's economy falls. But, again, some nations will gain. As for the US, the macroeconomists that I listen to -- the ones who really know China -- say that, as China's growth falls the US either benefits slightly or that it's more or less a wash. Note, however, that these macroeconomists don't consider the costs that China imposes on the world through its cheating, plundering, and vandalism, that is, the costs attributable to China's IP theft, unfair competition, espionage, cyber warfare, economic and political coercion, land grabs, disinformation campaigns, threats of military force and the resulting increases in defense spending among threatened nations, and myriad other ways in which China abuses its power and subverts the liberal order. If macroeconomists did include all of these imposed costs in their calculations, it would be clearer to them that, as China's economy suffers giving it less power to impose its will, the world outside China benefits overall.
Yes the price keep going down for years even they keep reducing the mortgage interest rates still going down
I love your content u really explain and breakdown for anyone to understand
No way in hell can you build millions of homes, apartments, and shopping centers on speculation and have them stand empty for years.
In India also, this ponzi scheme is norm.
The "Three Red Lines"...China has such a dramatic flair for naming things, it's so great.
First time watching your video... Aussie???
Great video!
Why are comments with critique of China being removed here?
Might be RUclips auto-detection? I don't delete comments unless they're hateful or discriminatory
YT are leftards
The 90s% ownership number is misguided. You are not allowed to "own" RE in China, it belongs to the state and you buy it on 99 year leases, unless your CCP special.
Thus, 90% of Chinese citizens own rights to 99 year leases from the state.
This is very similar to what we have here in my city (Canberra)!
actually, it is not 99 years, but 70 years record in the property certificate. when it excessed 70 years, you can rebuild the building over the same land, but you need to pay tax to the government again.
@@NewMoneyRUclips Really? I thought AUS and NZ had the same property rights and ownership as Canada and the UK?
@@joelzinho4600We do, he's just trying to deflect his lack of real estate knowledge in this video. He will probably say something like the British Monarchy owns all land in Commonwealth countries just like the CCP owns all land in Chinese countries but it's a really bad comparison
@@pipiqiqi4010 people don't usually rebuild, they just pay a kind of tax to continue living in the same building, that is, if it's still standing after 70 years lol
Right off the bat, did he say Chinar?
Owning your own home means house prices do not matter to you, unless you plan on selling...
Another video, another news I wasnt aware of. Keep making great videos, Brandon. And please include Turkey news as well. You will find interesting stuff, to say the least.
question- the GDP was up 5 percent for first quarter 2024. From that figure it doesnt seem that bad, how does the housing and the GDP co exist.
Well housing often devastates other sectors
When you spend everything on housing you have nothing left to spend at local small businesses
GDP is the annual aggregate of production in an economy.
Das all.
Like the joke goes: paying someone to dig a hole and cover it up makes GDP go up too.
In the PRC's case, their GDP has benefitted from the end of the lockdown downs (higher-ish tourism for example) and massive exports setting a high floor. Throw in government spending and new energy industrial activity and it about makes up for the crater diminished housing activity caused.
I read The China GDP figure was rigged by to make it larger. Eg they readjusted prev year figure lower before calculating...
Young adult unemployment is at record highs example 10m uni graduates each year chasing 5m jobs. Collapsed of bricks n mortar retailing, sharp increase in foreclosures .... 500,000 property foreclosures Vs 20,000 etc. more in pipeline as takes up to 2years from default to auction etc
Deflation is not that bad of a thing but government intervention is.
3:39 "A BIT LIKE" doing some heavy lifting to not directly call a Ponzi Scheme a Ponzi Scheme.
Here before the irritating bots lmao
Everyone is a bot and your not a troll.
Nice videos very informative i would like for you to do a video on the UAE economy get your take on it. Since there is so much hype around it see if its worth it 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙏🏻
It’s a great opportunity to buy state own conglomerates and banks. For example CCB was trading at below 4 PE, 7-8% yield and a 30% payout. An other example is Ping an Insurance and CITIC, citic is pay around 7% yield it’s 70-90% under value because of its debt however half its debt barrow from the Chinese central bank and citic is own by the Chinese government meaning they are not going to call on those loan as long as the CCP still in power. Did I also mention there is 0% dividend and capital gain tax. Chinese dividend stock give a better return than Hong Kong real estate. Sold several houses after price to rent went from 17 to 20+ then bought Chinese dividend stock and road the capital gain and 3-4 years of dividend. I not just save money in tax, security fees and lost rent. I pay no tax in any of my stock activity.
It's not really urbanization that spurred them to make so many ghost towns. There were excessive building in the rural areas as the government were paying huge compensations for homes acquired for public projects. If you have a 200 sqm 3 story building, you will be compensated 3 apartments each 200 sqm or the amount equivalent. That's why there's this commonly known term 暴发户, which mean household who suddenly got rich. I travel to China regularly and to the remote areas. The sentiments have drastically changed. Pre-covid, everyone was fighting for every inch of land they are possibly entitled to, fighting with their family for their ancestral land. Paying good money to fence up and claim their properties.
The last trip I went in March, people are saying that the govt is broke and no longer buying.
The number of homes a PRC own is unbelievable, especially in the rural area. They will hope to have one in the city they work in or where they plan their family, and another ancestral land for retirement or burial after death. But most are glad to forsake their ancestoral land if the government is willing to acquire from them
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” Jefferson wrote. ” If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around(these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
“ The issuing power of currency shall be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
It's called the burst of a bubble.
And contrary to China, the housing bubble collapse in Canada is getting better!🤣
Good thing home prices only go up XD
China could be the first country in the history of the world to end homelessness due to the surplus of empty housing. The Chinese government doesn't have a housing bubble because it is an authoritarian and state-controlled economy, managing all monetary and economic policies.
We keep looking at it as a Western economics of a free market. But China's not that.
China hasn't been a planned economy for decades
Bravo for such a clear explanation of the situation in China, I am also in the Charlie Munger camp! Keep the great videos coming! Thank you!
Don’t know if you’ll get to it… but you start buy saying 90% of Chinese own their own home… and that isn’t quite true. You lease homes from the government and don’t own the permanent rights. But maybe you’ll bring that up later in the video.
Yeah, he really does not have a clue.
Works similar everywhere, ever heard of property taxes?
@@carlosnavarro-cj2jv but if you pay your taxes, the property still belongs to you or your family. In china, the building won't even last as long as your renting the land it's on.
@@markgarin6355 neither usa, a lot of wood structures will need work, but regardless having to constantly pay the government to keep your property I'd basically a lease 🤷♂️
@@carlosnavarro-cj2jv Yes, you need to pay taxes in the US. But if you pay your taxes, you have perpetual rights to the land and the structures on it. And even if you don’t pay your taxes, the government needs to take you to court, where if you can’t pay your debts, they can maybe get a lien or claim. In China, even if you literally follow every law and pay every tax, you still don’t own your home or it’s land.
The CCP bots are strong in these comments
Falling 🏠 prices are great for young people starting a family. The Chinese government might come out of this smarter than they look now.
Need to have young people though, look at the collapse in birth rates, not good and accelerating downward
If you can , Would you sell your property in Australia and buy in China or Hong Kong??? Buy low, sell high?
housing prices have dropped so much the people are feeling poor
really? the house price is still high in my city, especially the house with good location and schools.
I think there's a benefit to the downturn in the housing market is a good thing, better to have a slow correction than a sudden crash.
确实是这样的。中国房价特别贵，而且据说是支撑起了很大一部分经济。现在房价跌了，也不知道中国政府会用什么办法来应对。
Sadly housing prices are not collapsing in Germany lol
same in Canada, unaffordable !
lack of housing price collapse is holding back both economies severely
USA never had a boom like the one that followed the reduction in the amount that people had to blow on mere housing
I think you’re missing the part where the world got along with them … untill more recently.
Zzzzzz....it has been how many years now since I hear that?
This is exactly how it happens in India as well, the pre-construction projects turn into Ponzi scheme if they don't get money from previous projects' completion.
Whoever is running the light show in cities like Shanghai need to pull the plug.
They were counting or foreign investors,idiots with money.
Kinda sad and funny at same time. China's got so many houses their knocking down buildings, in america we don't have enough homes for people who want them. Prices sky high!😂
Why do I think of Star Wars Episode 3 when I see Warren out of the background, Elon in and Brandon wearing black? 🤔
You were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the hype, not join it! Bring balance to investing, not leave it in darkness.
Investing in Property or 2nd homes is a great investment if there are enough people needing to rent
But when 90% of the population own homes already how is investing in property going to get you returns. If they sit there empty then obviously prices will go down and you are going to be paying for something nobody wants. That’s just bad business
You can give councils instructions to buy them and turn them into affordable housing but then who is going to buy or live in the affordable housing cos 90% already have homes
It’s just kicking the can down the road
It's for urbanisation
No mention of the impact on the shadow banking system
bro changed the title of his video twice, to feed the algorithm.
Is it the moment to buy China ?
tldr; china is going through 2008 in the u.s. lol
The housing crisis part, not the synthetic CDO part.
3:10 similar to 401k? haha
Canada builds in the same way
"Chiner"
It seems like New Money recycles content so much.
Maybe they'd sell more houses if people actually wanted to live there
Isn’t that increase in export due to selling to Russia war effort?
Due to lots of stuff, I assume.
Is China the leading automobile exporter yet?
Given their vastly superior EVs?
Why I faint so much
Sounds like US social security
Definitely similarities. Was dumb to make the social security system dependent upon perpetual growth
Definitely similarities. Was dumb to make the social security system dependent upon perpetual growth
Standard tho. To do what’s easiest short term
$525 billion to Ukraine and $750 billion to illegals and $700 to Maui people that’s your president America…
so basically a ponzi scheme
China is not the biggest engine of global growth. China has been the largest component of global growth only in an arithmetical sense. China's overall effect on the rest of the world is actually to undermine growth somewhat -- because China sucks up much of the demand that otherwise would be satisfied by other countries. The country that supplies the most demand -- and therefore IS the biggest engine of global growth -- is the US. By a huge margin it is the US that generates the largest amount of the demand that drives growth for the world (albeit not for commodity-rich nations that supply China).
US engines the global economy growth by printing dollars. and China engines the global economy growth by producing all products
Falling real estates prices is a good thing. This allows younger people to afford a home. In fact, the USA also needs to pop its real estate bubble.
Chinese people's balance sheet damage coupled with sky high debt level, private and govt, results in a classical liquidity trap; which sees no light in the tunnel yet.
Can I say I told you so yet?
in meanwhile us economicy is vbrnk of collapse😂😂
Hahahahha china karma
Stop huffing and puffing on that copium
All I can say is that the ammount of Chinese summer tourists is noticable here in Europe so there is something brewing
George Magnus has correctly predicted 27 of the last zero chinese economic collapses. Nice work if you can get it.
So china is not allowed an economic downturn? Why don’t you make a video about building in san fran selling for 90% off. Not because of economic downturn, but because of crime and bad policies.
Jackie chaine I don't have room I sleep in the salon