Stock Market Bubble Starting to Crash

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  • Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
  • The current stock market bubble has been persistent over time but it is showing the first signs of cracking. No stock market crash in sight, but the fundamentals are clear - it is about when. But then of course, no stock market crash for a decade can also be possible.
    0:00 Stock Market Situation
    6:25 Market News
    7:55 Market Valuation
    9:57 How To Invest
    My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
    If you are a sophisticated investor looking for in depth, independent stock analyses and investing ideas, here is my STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (business and sector risk and reward analysis, my portfolios):
    STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM:
    sven-carlin-research-platform...
    Are you an investor that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Market Investing Course - a comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform...
    I am also a book author:
    Modern Value Investing book:
    amzn.to/2lvfH3t
    The below links are from third parties or channel sponsors where I get a fee from:
    I often get asked about brokers, here is a low fee broker, an international one that allows you to buy on global markets, and also offers complex solutions like options for when your investing skills grow. For now, it is one of the best solutions I have found for global investors, also based on your comments and inputs:
    www.interactivebrokers.ie/mkt...

Комментарии • 217

  • @GillerHeston
    @GillerHeston 24 дня назад +331

    Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve.

    • @rogerwheelers4322
      @rogerwheelers4322 24 дня назад +6

      There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 24 дня назад +5

      I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 24 дня назад +4

      I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 24 дня назад +6

      Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 24 дня назад +5

      I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Marisa Breton Dollard up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

  • @Kaustavpatell
    @Kaustavpatell Месяц назад +293

    This is why I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.

    • @kurtKking
      @kurtKking Месяц назад +3

      Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert.

    • @MickyGlover
      @MickyGlover Месяц назад +3

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.

    • @Vivienedouglass
      @Vivienedouglass Месяц назад +2

      This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.

    • @Vivienedouglass
      @Vivienedouglass Месяц назад

      Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her

  • @Theresaa12
    @Theresaa12 Месяц назад +197

    Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $2M portfolios or maybe even consider some defensive investments.

    • @BenTodd-fl8nv
      @BenTodd-fl8nv Месяц назад +3

      Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.

    • @judynewsom1902
      @judynewsom1902 Месяц назад +1

      Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

    • @A_francis
      @A_francis Месяц назад +1

      Thank you for sharing, I must say, Sharon appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call

  • @softy-bf5eg
    @softy-bf5eg Месяц назад +254

    Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?

    • @Cammimullens
      @Cammimullens Месяц назад

      Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder

    • @marlisamirabal
      @marlisamirabal Месяц назад

      The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market

    • @marlisamirabal
      @marlisamirabal Месяц назад

      ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING' is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

  • @abdeifitahwarsame
    @abdeifitahwarsame Месяц назад +36

    Experiencing multiple losses as a new trader can be disheartening, but it's important to remember that setbacks are a natural part of the learning curve. Each loss is an opportunity to gain valuable insights and strengthen your skills. Take comfort in knowing that every successful trader has faced similar challenges. If you are not ready for the mental stress in trading just do copytrade instead.
    Less stress and easy.

    • @abdeifitahwarsame
      @abdeifitahwarsame Месяц назад

      Imagine you're playing a game with a friend who's a pro. Instead of struggling on your own, you watch and copy their moves to win. Copy trading is similar in finance. You follow experienced investors' decisions, mimicking their trades to learn and potentially profit in the market.

    • @abdeifitahwarsame
      @abdeifitahwarsame Месяц назад

      He's a renowned hedgefund manager

    • @abdeifitahwarsame
      @abdeifitahwarsame Месяц назад

      He's mostly on telegrams using the user name

    • @abdeifitahwarsame
      @abdeifitahwarsame Месяц назад

      ThiagoFrederick 💯

    • @Williampart
      @Williampart Месяц назад

      ThiagFrederick's prowess as a trader shines through meticulous analysis, strategic decision-making, and a remarkable ability to navigate market fluctuations with precision and confidence.

  • @philippluklas
    @philippluklas Месяц назад +38

    I strongly encourage everyone to keep their ETF savings plans going. Worst thing you can do is to stop investing listening to crash prophets, or worse, sell in a downturn to then buy again later -likely at higher levels. Been there before. Either one will lead you to invest later at higher levels. Been there

    • @mikkelhansen3714
      @mikkelhansen3714 Месяц назад +1

      I dont know about that, maybe if its an emerging market ETF, as those are quite undervalued. If you own an s&p 500 ETF well then it would be MUCH less risky to change to bonds and would probably even give the same return. Ofc it depends on your personal situation, and if you are even able to do that due to fees from selling or a locked in retirement account

    • @joseafalvel
      @joseafalvel Месяц назад

      + 1 I've also been there and panicking after a drop is the dumbest thing you can do as an investor, the best thing to avoid loses is not to try to time the market but to very extremely careful and do a deep due diligence on the assets you choose, long term you will feel very satisfied of not paying attention to the crash prophets

  • @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
    @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Месяц назад +30

    The two "solutions:"
    Print, print, print.
    War.

    • @jsedge2473
      @jsedge2473 27 дней назад

      Yes. And keep in mind that the first solution is temporary. So there's really only one finale to this nonsense.

  • @eugenebrandon1533
    @eugenebrandon1533 Месяц назад +6

    Remember defense is your best offense...not how much will I make but how much can I lose.Thanks sven.

    • @tacocruiser4238
      @tacocruiser4238 Месяц назад

      If that's the case, then we should all be buying put options (but nobody does that because they are too expensive).

  • @khurram4589
    @khurram4589 Месяц назад +2

    Most high earners have a life that is about a bit more than just salaries.... Leaving all family and friends behind just to grow your money through profitable investment is knowledge.😊

    • @LydiaLopez-yh7wo
      @LydiaLopez-yh7wo Месяц назад

      I feel sympathy for our country, low income people are now suffering to survive yet inflation and recession keep increasing daily, many families can't even enhance the good cost of living anymore. You've helped me a lot Sir James Clark! Imagine I invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days

  • @CRM82
    @CRM82 Месяц назад +22

    He missed the rally, now again talking about market bubble and crash...

    • @themusic6808
      @themusic6808 Месяц назад

      There’s a lot of perma bears on RUclips lol

    • @MrGinotonix
      @MrGinotonix Месяц назад +2

      Not that easy. The strong US economy is fueled by dept, private and public. This can persist longer than expected, but cannot go on forever. I guess 5y to the US debt crisis, but it could be 10 or 15.

    • @TheBooban
      @TheBooban Месяц назад

      @@MrGinotonixpeople have been warning of too much debt since the 80’s. Maybe longer, but I wasn’t born then.

  • @Latin_American_Economic
    @Latin_American_Economic Месяц назад +1

    Simply wanted to add something regarding AI from an interview with professor Damodaran from NYU with the Financial Times. He adds that he is old enough to have seen multiple big changes that have changed the markets and the way we live. He started his career in 1981 and saw the PC revolution. Then in the 1990s he saw the Internet and then social media and how they revolutionized the way we live. When these technological changes came about it led to an overreach and created bubbles. The bubbles are a reflection of how humans deal with disruptive changes. We tend to underestimate the difficulty of changes and overestimate the likelihood of success. This tend to create bubbles. Eventually things do settle, but it takes time and only a few come out on top.

  • @finanziker
    @finanziker Месяц назад +8

    Cut spending, that was a good one.

  • @davidedeltoro4117
    @davidedeltoro4117 Месяц назад +2

    I Agree with you 100% on stock valuations and the unsustainability for high interest rates for US Debt! In my opinion the end of this telenovela will be a big recession (induced by high rates); at that point inflation problems will be in the rear view mirror because companies will not be able to raise prices. The stock market will fall significlanty and the US treasuries will find buyers at 3% instead of 5%, with inflation back to 2%. That's the old school ending. The alternative is much worse with big problems for both stock and bond market.

  • @apc9714
    @apc9714 Месяц назад +42

    Imagine if congress was a family: "After long heated discussions about what to do to avoid drowning in debt, the wife and the husband agree that they will both take out loans and spend more money"

    • @guru47pi
      @guru47pi Месяц назад +6

      The revenue side of a balanced budget matters, too.
      So to go with your family analogy for govt policy since 1980, mom and dad cut their income by quitting one of their jobs, and then blamed the resulting deficit on their 'lazy' kids' need for such luxuries as preschool and food.

    • @zenastronomy
      @zenastronomy Месяц назад +5

      the difference is moral hazard.
      when one party benifits and another pays the costs of an action, you will get unethical behaviour.
      government going into debt, benifits the rich who get richer and richer.
      it harms the masses who pay for it through taxes and inflation.
      so what does the government do? it serves its constituents.
      which is the rich lobbying groups who make them rich through campaign funds and cushty jobs post government and not the public who vote for them. As the rich bribe every political party and every politician.
      this is the truth of democracy.
      It's perfectly logical and rational behaviour.

    • @finnrogers6973
      @finnrogers6973 Месяц назад +3

      I’ll do one better, in this scenario the family is in debt and they do get a loan but instead of paying back the loan with earned income they go to their basement and counterfeit the money to pay it off, the creditors accept the money, then the family realizes they could spend this money to fund all their spending flooding the market with worthless notes. The value of money decreases and creditors realize the notes are worthless. But because the family was smart, they spent all that money arming themselves so that no creditor would dare call them on their worthless paper. Essentially the family has created “don’t shoot me tokens” that do have value in that no one wants to get shot

    • @eco-nutjob
      @eco-nutjob Месяц назад

      This gave me the best laugh I've had in awhile. Wish we could all have the luxury of creating money out of thin air.

    • @santiagograciano8402
      @santiagograciano8402 Месяц назад +1

      Need to buy votes

  • @Reza16888
    @Reza16888 Месяц назад +3

    Good, Sven. No matter what happens in the market, you'd OK!

  • @johnalphacentauri
    @johnalphacentauri Месяц назад +3

    A very interesting analysis.
    I suggest to be careful when using the comma or period annotation because sometimes billions are confused with trillions, even in your speech. Thanks.

  • @TheRothschild770
    @TheRothschild770 Месяц назад +1

    Very informative video you have, I have been able to understand the messages you pass but there are some other challenges that may come about when taking some other risks or planning

  • @megaflippo1
    @megaflippo1 Месяц назад

    Thanks Sven, very informative vid, again and again !

  • @dredoctor8271
    @dredoctor8271 Месяц назад +3

    I cut my spending. Sven laughing in my face is my worst fear now. I now also question my life decisions. ; (
    Great vid!

  • @AnyangU
    @AnyangU Месяц назад +1

    I agree with much that you said. This is an informative and interesting video. But, I want to make one small semantic criticism. It is not that government debt has "caused" the stock market bubble but it has "enhanced" the creation of wealth. Obviously, technology and exuberance, whether too much or not, are fueling a lot of the gains, and creating a bubble, as well as government debt.
    Regardless, it is important to continue to turn over rocks and look for value in the market.

  • @Unrealdruiddd
    @Unrealdruiddd Месяц назад +1

    Muchas gracias Sven!

  • @633striker
    @633striker Месяц назад

    I loved the 'cut spending' laugh

  • @malindatrees4715
    @malindatrees4715 Месяц назад +40

    I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.

    • @LucasCruikshank337
      @LucasCruikshank337 Месяц назад

      Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

    • @AndrewHolmes694
      @AndrewHolmes694 Месяц назад

      She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states

    • @Davidcoleman258
      @Davidcoleman258 Месяц назад

      You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

    • @ColleenBallinger287
      @ColleenBallinger287 Месяц назад

      I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

    • @malindatrees4715
      @malindatrees4715 Месяц назад

      she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.

  • @Tonied
    @Tonied Месяц назад

    Sven you are hilarious.."Cut spending" lmao!

  • @Eunegin23
    @Eunegin23 Месяц назад +1

    Main question: is it a stock market bubble? Or just a bubble in certain branches? Or none at all? You shouldn't just assume so and draw conclusions automatically.

  • @SergiMedina
    @SergiMedina 28 дней назад

    Yes, as long as we keep letting politicians spend without control just for their personal gain (power + money), economics and the future aren't going any better, all the contrary. We must stop them before it's too late. We could start by stop voting them once and for all. Just give people freedom. We do everything. We always did. Thank you!

  • @ap.8215
    @ap.8215 Месяц назад

    Sven, thanks for the videos. I have a small question/remark though, namely when you are mentioning interest spending on the current debt depending on interest rates. Aren’t interest rates for the open/current debt fixed for the government via coupon of the bonds the sell? Shouldn’t rate matter more for incremental/new debt only?

    • @kentvandervelden
      @kentvandervelden Месяц назад +1

      17% is bills, 40% is notes. ~$7.6T matures in 2024, ~22%.
      Look for US Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt.
      Also paper: Optimizing the Maturity Structure of US Treasury Debt

    • @kentvandervelden
      @kentvandervelden Месяц назад +1

      Using March's data, $8.1T matures in '24.
      Most of that is already at ~5.2%. 25% is average of 1.78%.

  • @Ethxnb44
    @Ethxnb44 Месяц назад +3

    Sven have you read any US inflation reports? Inflation excl shelter has been around 2.5% for months its not sticky at all

  • @alexk1843
    @alexk1843 Месяц назад

    Sven, what do you think about the quantity theory of money? In 2022-23 we had a decrease in USD money supply, so we should expect a recession and lower inflation (maybe even deflation)

  • @Fedgery007
    @Fedgery007 Месяц назад +6

    People have literally been saying the stock market has been in a bubble for years!
    Americans love the money printing. They want more of it as they keep voting for it!

    • @antonblanke
      @antonblanke Месяц назад +1

      Just because it lasts for years it doesn’t mean it isn‘t a bubble… and just because it‘s a bubble, there‘s no reason it has to pop soon…

    • @richardpapen4269
      @richardpapen4269 Месяц назад

      So Yeah there was no bubble in 2008?

  • @rhyka101
    @rhyka101 Месяц назад +1

    Some very insightful analysis. Much appreciated. What about individual stocks that are solid value investments? I think that your channel is great but needs some specifics with regards to an example of a stock that you are buying and a precise amount. Some youtubers do 5 stocks I'm buying now. How about Sven does 1 stock I'm buying now with no vague allusions?

    • @nataliam895
      @nataliam895 Месяц назад

      He has a platform you can subscribe to know the stocks

  • @Talyigal
    @Talyigal Месяц назад +2

    Dear Sven, it is very interesting thanks! In some of your videos we saw that you find value in some stocks from china. Would you consider to give your opinion about some other countries that have a generall low valuation because of some risks? for example, as an Israeli, I know that investors here in Israel tend to look at our Israeli indexes now as atractive. Surely, we are not objective, but thats why your point of view would be highly apriciated.

  • @elrevesyelderecho
    @elrevesyelderecho Месяц назад

    5:00 I would say our debt too. Being the financial system based on the US dollar, we'll end up importing the inflation and devaluation the FED creates.

  • @wernerschonenberger3038
    @wernerschonenberger3038 Месяц назад

    Hi Sven! Great video, thanks 👍👍👍! Valuations are widespread (from single digit PEs to high double digit PEs) and don't we get a "skewed" picture due to a few (Tech, AI?) heavily-weighted stocks? Has the band of PEs in the S&P 500 ever been so wide unless in a market turmoil? There are still "bargains" with solid business models and a low (

  • @Eline_Meijer
    @Eline_Meijer Месяц назад +3

    Thanks for the detailed video Sven.

  • @scottjackson6817
    @scottjackson6817 Месяц назад +4

    So far 4 out of 5 SP500 companies have beaten profit expectations this quarter. Is this a fundamental?

  • @eco-nutjob
    @eco-nutjob Месяц назад +1

    Companies with yield of 10% or higher? Is that safe? Seems like those are companies that are primed to cut their dividend or go belly up, no?

  • @eh7599
    @eh7599 Месяц назад

    Great video

  • @Latin_American_Economic
    @Latin_American_Economic Месяц назад

    I did not know you could get a breakdown of GDP like you have here. That's awesome! Thank you for sharing =]
    Also now that you pointed out it really doesn't make sense how the stock market is higher than the pandemic period when government printed so much money. If the growth was based on productivity then inflation would be no more but we still have inflation so that makes no sense..

  • @207j
    @207j Месяц назад

    Many have predicted a market crash since 2013.. and yes, eventually, it will happen.. it's easy to "predict" it will happen.. the big question is WHEN.... If you can predict that - it would be a clip worth watching..

  • @KrisJovi-vj3vd
    @KrisJovi-vj3vd Месяц назад +3

    The market is clearly overpriced. Gha k you for the video

  • @giuseppeo77
    @giuseppeo77 Месяц назад

    8:39... Hi Sven, I don't get how market to GDP could be Zero, could you please clarify that? Because I'm guessing it's not and then if a normal market to GDP let's say is 60% and therefore assuming that as the baseline then 193% market to GDP would not be 1.9 std deviations...Hope all is well, cheers! 😉

  • @taskagordon9056
    @taskagordon9056 Месяц назад +1

    You are correct. Valuations have reached a significant high. This means we are expected to get lower returns in the long run. But, why not speak about a different alternative? A passive investment strategy focused on asset allocation diversified across multiple asset classes and geographic markets? We can't always rely on the USA alone. We can't predict the future and where the risk and return are best allocated, but we can diversify well enough, not to care about specific risks like the one you are discussing.

  • @T0mkisss
    @T0mkisss Месяц назад

    The suit is back, jokes, intellectual humility ("now or in 20 years"). Solid update!
    The one thing that I've not heard anyone talking about is the - US growing at 2% with the government borrowing of over well over 2% of GDP. It would be great to hear more and deeper investigations of that situation because it's either not fully accurate (needs to be looked at from a different angle), or it's a very consequential insight which is not being priced in by the market so there might be some serious Burry / Ackman asynchronous plays available to take advantage of it.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Месяц назад +1

      the problem is that you can't know when it will stop working / without knowing the timing, there is no play

    • @T0mkisss
      @T0mkisss Месяц назад

      @@Value-Investing yeah, and for that reason an all-in play like Burry's in GFC might not be smart, but there might be asynchronous plays like Ackman's during the pandemic where - heads we're flat, tails we win big.

  • @giuseppeo77
    @giuseppeo77 Месяц назад

    From 11:00 to 11:26...not sure I understood your idea, probably it's me because not sleeping well and life problems but I found it a bit confusing...So you say you could put your money into a 5 year bond (not sure those exist) and get a 5% interest rate and then you said "invest that 5% and put it into value investing stocks" you mean you wait for 5 years and then the yield you will get (the 5%) you invest that into...see it's a bit confusing, I am sure you meant something else...I hope you clarify, thanks and my best to you Sven...apart from my two comments asking for clarification, the idea of the whole video you are trying to bring home is great! 👍

    • @valuations520
      @valuations520 Месяц назад

      You get five percent per year on your principle. So $5000 yield on $100k invested in the 5-year bond. Then take the $5000, pay tax, and invest the remainder.

  • @thekingofallblogs
    @thekingofallblogs Месяц назад +1

    Half the youtube channels think runaway inflation. Half think we are headed for recession. No one really knows. I'm investing in high yield stocks that can hopefully keep their value.

  • @hermes8258
    @hermes8258 Месяц назад

    04:04 "there are two ways to borrow - you can increase interest rates... or you can print money" This is done by two separate entities, the Fed (not part of the federal gov't) and the Treasury (which is). And there is a third method, albeit indirect - taxation, no?

  • @lettuceforbuns
    @lettuceforbuns Месяц назад +1

    What about increasing government income as well. (ie.tax)? It's historically low now. US boomed after WW2 - look at the tax rate then.

  • @Fddhjdthnbcfseyhvg
    @Fddhjdthnbcfseyhvg Месяц назад

    Cut spending. This was a good joke my friend😂❤ I know how to position yourself. Bend over and grab your ankles, Uncle Sam is coming in!!

  • @Barkotina
    @Barkotina Месяц назад +1

    Sven, do you beat the market?

  • @davidsabroe421
    @davidsabroe421 Месяц назад

    How come the rate of government interest rate on debt, not just be decided to be 0?

  • @ng67432
    @ng67432 24 дня назад +1

    Sell everything and make 5% from Treasuries (i.e. 3% after taxes) and invest that into stocks? What sense does that make?

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  20 дней назад

      depends on your risk and reward, I see very few thinking about risk these days!

  • @user-ts4iz3te1b
    @user-ts4iz3te1b Месяц назад +3

    Do you have update on Meta. It grew its revenue +27% Y/Y I remember you said it's a dying, eroding business...
    Btw how much money you lost since 2020 ?

    • @unktzor
      @unktzor Месяц назад

      He bought at $100 and made a video about it, were you buying then?

  • @crankfotton
    @crankfotton Месяц назад

    keep hearing this over and over again... the answer to the question is nobody knows when... its not rocket science, but the PHD ego wont allow that.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  29 дней назад

      that is my message, nobody knows when or how, but it is a risk. I feel for you if you have a problem with my education

  • @PeterPanda00
    @PeterPanda00 Месяц назад

    What about the good old Coal?

  • @elrevesyelderecho
    @elrevesyelderecho Месяц назад

    6:28 investment in real assets and business that increase prices at inflation pace?

  • @joseafalvel
    @joseafalvel Месяц назад +1

    Phil Fisher taught me that overvaluation metrics are not a symptom that necessarily leads to a huge drop, quality investments can go up and up and up, bears always follow the technicals and they don't pay attention on the fundamentals of the companies that are taking the indexes so high, you can't say that the top 7 of the s&p 500 with the best balance sheets I've ever seen are comparable to the tech bubble that was fueled by investors believing that start ups without reaching break-even point were going to be the next big deal just because their respectives high P/E at both moments are very high, simply you can't, I like your channel but bears are always predicting the apocalypse and 19 of 20 times they are wrong and from a personal stand point since I stopped taking seriously these type of videos my returns have been way much better by sticking to the fundamentals and stop trying to time the best moment to enter into a position, actually back in those days I lost so many great opportunities when I used to pay attention to the next possible crash type of content

  • @erikm9768
    @erikm9768 Месяц назад

    Sven i think you meant 1,725 trillion at 5:04 ?

  • @johnristheanswer
    @johnristheanswer Месяц назад

    Inflation is US is low , excluding houses / rentals.

  • @panagope
    @panagope Месяц назад +7

    For which stock market you speak , that ot is a bubble? Because european and especially emerging stock markets are not bubble at all.

    • @Pizza-gb1ch
      @Pizza-gb1ch Месяц назад +1

      @0:59 He posts a chart and discusses the market here.

    • @davidepattibiomed89
      @davidepattibiomed89 Месяц назад

      US is definitely in a bubble..

    • @JackDespero
      @JackDespero Месяц назад +2

      How many times does he need to mention the US, the Fed, and show American indices to let you know that it is talking about the US market?

    • @invertedv12powerhouse77
      @invertedv12powerhouse77 Месяц назад

      International markets oftwn are affected by the us stock market. Just look at 08

  • @Spura83
    @Spura83 Месяц назад

    World Economic Forum president said that we didn't have such debt levels ever since Napoleonic Wars. I don't know if that's true, but it certainly feels like everyone is in deep debt (except for singular companies). If the market crashes it's sure to crash across all equity markets so what's the play here... buy bonds?

  • @tzvassilev
    @tzvassilev Месяц назад +1

    Thank you Sven, but this time I don’t agree with your conclusions. Corporations are raising the prices for goods and services and so their earnings go up, just take a look at the earnings beats across the board. My investment thesis is that in the long term inflation is irrelevant for a diversified stock portfolio and even if short term effects can’t be ruled out, these are corrected in the long term. If we see rates at 10% we will see double digit inflation too and then I would still argue that it is better to hold stocks than bonds. A bond is just a nominal value asset and therefore it makes sense to consider it only when inflation and rates are going down. If you hold bonds in an environment of increasing inflation and interest rates you get double hit due to the fact that the real value of the bond is eroding due to inflation but also it’s nominal value is going down with every interest rate hike. Stocks on the other hand will be offering a better protection due inflation being passed through. Your idea to buy treasuries will certainly lead to a disaster in a scenario of high or even accelerating inflation because the nominal yield won’t be able to keep up with the loss of purchasing power.

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Месяц назад

      thanks for sharing, of course, anything can happen

    • @lesleyjohnson8488
      @lesleyjohnson8488 Месяц назад

      I think Sven believes that inflation will necessarily be reduced when (or if) the government stops issuing so much debt. It’s my personal theory that a reduction in interest rates will actually have the unintended consequence of a decline in the stock market. Right now the real estate crisis in office buildings has been relatively limited and only a few banks have been affected. If interest rates decline, this will lead to a precipitous decline in other kinds of real estate prices, which have been unusually buoyed by lack of inventory, such as housing. Once inventory increases due to reduced interest rates, this could start a domino effect (all based on rational behaviour) resulting in a real estate crash. Not every crisis begins in the stock market.

  • @iurevych
    @iurevych Месяц назад

    This is a first time I’m seeing Sven laughing. Everyone, watch minute 5

  • @charlieGeorge-rr5we
    @charlieGeorge-rr5we Месяц назад +42

    That's huge! I'm a newbie and I've been investing by myself for a while now but not really happy with how's going, ing, I lost $3,000 recently in one of my investments

    • @AdaleeDavid
      @AdaleeDavid Месяц назад

      As a newbie about to invest, you must have these four things in mind
      1. Have a long term mindset.
      2. Be willing to take risk.
      3. Be careful on money usage, if you're not spending to earn back, then stop spending.
      4. Never claim to know - Ask questions and it's best you work with a financial advise

    • @OliverNoah-zi3ve
      @OliverNoah-zi3ve Месяц назад

      Well, all the accolades goes too my personal financial advisor jansen Costa.

    • @AlexanderFisher-ti2yp
      @AlexanderFisher-ti2yp Месяц назад

      Yes!!! That's his name
      Dr jansen Costa alot of people recommend highly of him

    • @OliverNoah-zi3ve
      @OliverNoah-zi3ve Месяц назад

      HE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS, USING THE USERNAME

    • @OliverNoah-zi3ve
      @OliverNoah-zi3ve Месяц назад

      @mrjansenco

  • @marcuschalkley2355
    @marcuschalkley2355 Месяц назад

    Is it a good time to buy newmont mining now the price has gone up?

    • @Christineperkins-uw8ow
      @Christineperkins-uw8ow Месяц назад

      I suggest buying the new tesla innovation shares at this point as they are relatively cheap and are sure to yield long-term profits

    • @marcuschalkley2355
      @marcuschalkley2355 Месяц назад +1

      @@Christineperkins-uw8ow ewwww

    • @Christineperkins-uw8ow
      @Christineperkins-uw8ow Месяц назад

      @@marcuschalkley2355 wdym😂

  • @JoeC5050
    @JoeC5050 Месяц назад +1

    u were saying bubble since 2019..

  • @sociolocomtsac
    @sociolocomtsac Месяц назад

    S&P PE has nothing to do with individual stocks. This is macro investing, not "value investing."

  • @seanpetrash7263
    @seanpetrash7263 Месяц назад +1

    Is it a crash or just shrinking m1 m2?

  • @shawntan6446
    @shawntan6446 Месяц назад

    had been hearing u saying this crash whenever there is a pull back lol

  • @karsinds
    @karsinds Месяц назад

    Not bubble, just a normal bull market.

  • @LeszekChojnacki
    @LeszekChojnacki Месяц назад +1

    Hello Sven, are u able to make a vid regarding biden capital gain tax reform? This could have a big impact and there is no vid which translate this in proper way, have a nice day :)

  • @reynolds8532
    @reynolds8532 Месяц назад +1

    5:06... You mean Trillion, not billion..

  • @marcb934
    @marcb934 Месяц назад +3

    Okay Sven, so the world will crash and burn. Maybe it is the last chance to attend the Berkshire meeting next week in Omaha. 🤔

  • @pea-pu442
    @pea-pu442 Месяц назад

    Many stocks are low..

  • @saethman
    @saethman Месяц назад

    Bonds of confiscation doesn't seem to be low risk to me :o

  • @user-ky1on8bt3s
    @user-ky1on8bt3s Месяц назад

    sven' when you say "print money", is it actually new pysycal money beeing printed? or other way to "print"?

    • @ForChiddlers
      @ForChiddlers Месяц назад

      Dude...

    • @user-ky1on8bt3s
      @user-ky1on8bt3s Месяц назад

      @@ForChiddlers you have a real comment to make?

    • @ForChiddlers
      @ForChiddlers Месяц назад

      @@user-ky1on8bt3s just read how central banks bring money into circulation

    • @johnristheanswer
      @johnristheanswer Месяц назад

      * physical * being

    • @user-ky1on8bt3s
      @user-ky1on8bt3s Месяц назад

      @@johnristheanswer not my nativ languege

  • @mjs28s
    @mjs28s Месяц назад

    so don't buy market ETFs (indexes) stick with individual stocks as there are lots of great values out there. The indexes are priced rich as they are, like the SP500, more like the S&P15 as so much of the over-valuation is the top holdings.
    Index funds are not a good way to invest less you are one that wants a 100% hands-off approach to your investing.

  • @zenastronomy
    @zenastronomy Месяц назад +1

    the difference is moral hazard.
    when one party benifits and another pays the costs of an action, you will get unethical behaviour.
    government going into debt, benifits the rich who get richer and richer.
    it harms the masses who pay for it through taxes and inflation.
    so what does the government do? it serves its constituents.
    which is the rich lobbying groups who make them rich through campaign funds and cushty jobs post government and not the public who vote for them. As the rich bribe every political party and every politician.
    this is the truth of democracy.
    It's perfectly logical and rational behaviour.

  • @meathead919
    @meathead919 22 дня назад

    I own businesses (that just happen to be publicly traded), not pieces of paper.

  • @Adamskyization
    @Adamskyization Месяц назад +1

    Intel is bumming because they are losing their technological edge at a record speed. There is no way I'll buy a laptop with an Intel cpu on it. The performance is so garbage it's ridiculous.
    Also most major companies start to design their own chips which are much superior than Intel.

  • @marianSEO563
    @marianSEO563 Месяц назад

    But Sven, this time it's different. Ai will make Magnificient 7 earn big.

  • @azulsimmons1040
    @azulsimmons1040 Месяц назад

    10% or higher dividend? wow.

  • @Mogoisweak
    @Mogoisweak Месяц назад

    "Money Printing" to buy govt debt is not inflationary.

    • @Isendir1234
      @Isendir1234 Месяц назад +1

      But the government using that newly printed money is

  • @gergelyovics
    @gergelyovics Месяц назад

    I come across Whiskeys as an investment.

  • @jacekkawior6693
    @jacekkawior6693 Месяц назад

    CUT SPEENDING Xdddd JHAHAHAHAH good joke love that laugh

  • @caucasianafrican1435
    @caucasianafrican1435 Месяц назад

    Cut Spending??? 😄😃😀

  • @tiago.sartor
    @tiago.sartor Месяц назад +3

    Cut spending in an election year? 😂😂😂

  • @ryansimpson3074
    @ryansimpson3074 Месяц назад

    DCA into SPLG and forget about it

  • @_al_c2638
    @_al_c2638 Месяц назад

    Apple, the best innovative American company (haha), is going down, when is a good time to buy?

    • @AlanMWatson801
      @AlanMWatson801 Месяц назад

      That depends on what return you expect.
      Sven says in the video that he is aiming for 10% yields.
      Apple distributed around 15b/80b as dividends and buybacks in FY23: in order for those to hit 10%, Apple would need to trade at $60 (so the 80b in buybacks would represent an 8.5% yield, and the 15b in dividends would represent a 1.5% yield). PLus 3-5% growth, you would be at a 13-15% return from a business trading at 10x earnings.
      Will this ever happen? Likely not. But I don't think anybody expected Meta to trade at 8x eanrings in 2022 either...

    • @Christineperkins-uw8ow
      @Christineperkins-uw8ow Месяц назад

      This is a window to get as much of the latest tesla innovation shares as possible considering the dip

  • @duramajin3118
    @duramajin3118 Месяц назад +1

    Market down 2% for the week = crash

    • @joseafalvel
      @joseafalvel Месяц назад +1

      they just can't avoid calling out the end of the world due to events that any experienced real value investor is used to see every once in a while

  • @lkmb1717
    @lkmb1717 Месяц назад

    UUUUUUU -1.46% down....... bubble is popping....... Come on be serious!!!!
    What Bubble??? Maybe in USD and all other silly fiat currency.....

  • @joezw99
    @joezw99 Месяц назад +2

    Sven, you don't know when it's going to crash. Your advice has not outperformed even the S&P index so perhaps you should stick to "neutral" advice and not make any predictions unless you are *sure*. I wouldn't be surprised if inverse Sven outperformed investing with Sven.

    • @Albannas
      @Albannas Месяц назад +1

      As one economist said economists aren't good at investing since they see too many risks and miss oportunities

    • @Value-Investing
      @Value-Investing  Месяц назад

      my advice is: see what fits you best!

  • @NotesNomads
    @NotesNomads Месяц назад +1

    Cut spending hahaha OMGALOL

  • @Cleisthenes607
    @Cleisthenes607 Месяц назад

    Don't tease me bro! I can't wait.

  • @junxu6519
    @junxu6519 Месяц назад

    maybe it is the time to long china

  • @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
    @whiskey_tango_foxtrot__ Месяц назад +3

    Government debt is out of control and the government can cut spending...
    $61 billion to the Ukraine enters the chat
    Excellent video...

    • @jonathankr
      @jonathankr Месяц назад

      It's aid, not money. It's partially fake... if you know what i mean. They are giving them weapons to get into debt. The longer the war, the more America gets to sell weapons to Europe.

  • @jimanastasiadis5135
    @jimanastasiadis5135 Месяц назад

    Jesus christ these bots

  • @elrevesyelderecho
    @elrevesyelderecho Месяц назад

    8:15 Quién podrá salvarnos? El Chapulín Colorado! This joke is only available in Spanish... sorry

  • @nononnomonohjghdgdshrsrhsjgd
    @nononnomonohjghdgdshrsrhsjgd Месяц назад

    is that german accent? there is something unpleasan german, but there is also something very normal, which is not german.

  • @SocialWarriorClub
    @SocialWarriorClub Месяц назад

    After Friday’s news about the Republic First Bank Collapsing!
    We should start see a downtrend until Powell speech.