Value Or Showdown Value With TP? | Ask SplitSuit
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
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In this hand Hero is dealt AQ on the button and decides to squeeze preflop. When just the original raiser calls and then calls again on a 763 flop…things get interesting when the turn is our Queen. SplitSuit discusses why we need to bet the turn, why the SDV heavy-mindset sets you up for failure, and how to play the rest of the hand as-played.
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In itself the flop bet is approaching game theory disaster, because very few better hands fold, and only a few worse hands continue, and these typically have good equity. So I think, we should at least consider checking back and taking a free card.
As played I definitly agree, that the turn need to be bet for value. Our range did not really connect with the flop at all, so AQ is probably the third best hand, we can even have on the turn. So if we dont bet AQ, we are either bluffing way to much or not betting much at all. In which case why did we bet the flop, when the flop bet was never going to be outright profitable in itself?
On the river, the problem is, that because we bet the flop, we removed most of the hands from his range, which he could even consider to bluff with. There is 98 suited, but thats only 4 combos, and besides that what else? Did he really float out of position with just two overcards or with A5 suited? Probably not.
But on the other hand what is his value? Would he really float out of position with just two overcards? If the answer to that is "no", then he cant really have a K, and even if he did, would he really bet it for this size except for exactly KQ? Probably not so other than a very liberal float with KQ, his line is mostly representing something, which slowplayed the flop hoping to check-raise the turn, and which is now trying to compensate for lost value earlier in the hand.
And ok there are 9 combos of flopped sets, 4 combos of the flopped straight and 2 combos of flopped two pair, assuming he dont have offsuit connectors or junk in his range. So there is SOME value, but I think, you have to discount all those combos at least somewhat, because does he really never fastplay anything on the flop at all?
So at the end of the day not a lot of bluffs make sense, but also not a lot of value makes sense. Its a close one, but having made the plan on the turn to bluffcatch the river, I dont see any reason, why Hero should change his plan, just because the river card was a K, and the size somewhat larger than expected.
He checks behind to induce action on the river, then folds to it. This isn't even fish thinking, this is madness.
I think this is a terrible fold. The ONLY reason to check the turn should have been with the mindset of calling any non all-in on the river because in that case why check the turn? What's the point of the turn check? If hero is that afraid of draws then bet the turn. If hero is going to be this timid then why even C bet?
Hotobu . why even play AQs on the button? Why even play poker? Why can i get no sleep?
General concept learned from watching Splitsuit: bet when you think you've got the best hand. I like that :)
+Henrik K just bet more often in general =)
+James (SplitSuit) By the way, what is required for me to show you hands that i've played on Pokerstars?
+Henrik K just post the raw HH here: plus.google.com/+Thepokerbankdotcom/posts/B2u1kdZ4s1r
+James (SplitSuit) I have a really funny hand that i'm eager to show to you but Pokerstars won't let me change the language from swedish to english. Do I copypaste the raw hand history in swedish or would you prefer a link to boomplayer? Or mabye you would like me to translate it?
Thanks.
+Henrik K you can send it in Swedish, no problem
I think our perceived range is consistent with 99-JJ or AK that got scared on the turn in his eyes, so if he wants to get called he would bet less, we can safely exclude 33 from his range, and even 66 or 77 or 76s are not likely, so unless he flatted with QQ (1 combo) he never has a monster here. Is difficult that he flatted OOP KQ or KJ on the flop, so the only hand that he could value bet here is AK, but even with this hand i think he would bet less not a so big size. I think his size polarizes his range but i dont see a lot a value hands here so i think his most likely holding is something like AJ-AT that is trying to push off our (perceived) 99-JJ. If i check the turn, i m almost never folding river, expecially to this size
great vid splitsuit, absolutely agree that as played the river is a snap call - really difficult to come up with a hand that villain plays like this which is improved by the K, and like you said, if he's slowplayed a set up to this point then good for him but it's pretty unlikely. I'd never really thought about betting SDV hands for balance before but this makes total sense, thanks!
+hiimthomi thank you and you're very welcome!
i feel turn bet should be a small bet like 33-40, so you are not committed all in on. and its easier for his 88-JJ range to call. also a cheaper bluff.
river i agree should be a call, pot size bet is very polarized, and if he somehow has a Kx in his range, his value bet would be 1/2 pot, trying to get your Qx to call.
and my Extra Tip for bovada, when you see a player with less than 100 bb, they bluff more. if MP starts with a winning stack, they are more solid player.
Yeah I used to be like this too. Slow down with value and be aggressive with air, makes no sense once you think about it.
This is why I personally disagree with James' sizing obsession. Raising so large all the damn time is not ideal for me. 60% of pot is my default for postflop, rather than the 80-90% he always recommends. That's just crazy to me. I play more LAG than TAG so bluffing for that much into fish that don't like to fold feels pretty awful.
I call this river and then villain shows me something like K5 suited that he called preflop because suited, called flop because gutshot and bet river because lol top pair. Although I’d have bet the turn tbh.
While I totally agree that the Q should be bet 100% for exactly 60$ (I even think 55 is suboptimal), what would you think about making a stupid looking cbet of exactly 22$ (same size as the flop bet) to enduce massive mistakes from JJ, TT, 99, or even floated stuff. We still give villain a bad price to call and hope for a miracle river card, and we still have (if he only calls) 125 in the pot with 100 behind, which allowes us to make a strange and bluffy looking river shove.
It is non-standart, but against aggro villains, it can lead to great value since they think they can get it with their middle pair against (what they assume) a busted AK or AJs.
+Michel Smiffi maybe $22, but would you bluff like that or only VB like that?
+James (SplitSuit) Great point. While 60$ seems standard, I think given the size of the pot, the range we put him on and stack sizes, I think 60$ is too big. I think 40-50 is the optimal sizing imo because we don't give anything away with this sizing (could still be bluffing or value betting) and can still barrel rivers very comfortably with these sizings as opposed to betting 60$ it may look (to the villain) like we're more value heavy and are more inclined to gii because he would only have like 65$ behind, while by betting 48$, per say, we're more balanced and tougher to play against. What do you think James?
+John Griller depends how you think he'd perceive the "larger" size. $60 could easily look bluffy...which would benefit you quite a bit.
+James (SplitSuit) Not often for sure. But him getting like 5:1, he doesn't need me to bluff very often for him to continue. And if he continues, I could easily see him jamming his perceived value range.
I just can't see him folding TTs there to a 22 bet.
I could even be thin-value betting a worse hand to be honest...
You only need to really focus on balancing against good players looking to exploit you not against random players you'll likely never see again that probably aren't that good. Considering he already put in the c bet, betting the queen here is probably the best play.
@Brian Pederson Yeah I think they do lol It really doesn't take much to beat those games. Good fundamentals, patience and good bankroll management and you should be able to crush. It doesn't take anything fancy at all. People are so hung up on these more advanced concepts they completely ignore the basics. You only need to be one level above those shitty players.
If the villain in this hand was actually a decent opponent (I'm not sure) it definitely feels like he tried to turn his 99/TT into a bluff on the river.
i agree on betting the turn...... but when he leads out, doesnt it look like hero has ak, so so what hands is he turning into a bluff? how about betting the turn and checking back the river as villan is unlikely to donk bet the river with hands we lose to?
+McBill 87 it's unclear...but that issue also doesn't exist if we just fire the turn :)
What hand is he bluffing with? Why would he bluff here. There aren't many combos of bluffs here. 89s for 4 combos? I don't assuming players turn 99 into a bluff here. Instead I assume they will check/fold or check call with 1 pair hands.
james i have a question about a hand i know i played terribly yesterday. i was at a 1/2 table with a bunch of weak/tight players who would limp/call every hand (several players were limping with their entire range including AK-AA). i was on the button with QsTs and decided to limp after 4 other limpers because i knew they would all call a raise. SB calls and BB checks. flop comes Js9d6s. Blinds check. UTG +2 who had donk bet several times earlier (usually with a weak top or middle pair) led out for $10 (every time i saw him get reraised on the flop he folded 100% of the time, if he only got callers then he would keep barreling). the 3 other limpers fold. I didn't want the donk to fold so i just call. the SB also calls which made me think he might be slow playing something decent considering i had both draws. Turn is 3h. SB checks again. donk bets $15. Now since i'm kind of worried the SB won't go away i decide to call. SB raises to $55. donk folds and since i only have $90 left in my stack not giving me any fold equity if i shove, i decided to fold with only one card left to come. what should i have done differently?
+Godvernment if you'd like us to review the hand, please convert it using this video: ruclips.net/video/RC2DzH791yw/видео.html and then message us with the output!
thanks and done!
+Godvernment pre is okay. i think raising to like $20 to isolate is fine too. depends on table. i dont know why you you don't want the donk to fold flop, you should be happy to take the pot down there w/ your hand which is technically behind. on the flop its a raise to $35. the $15 turn bet is pretty weak. i still like a raise here since we definitely have fold equity. i dont know why youre scared of SB, he c/c flop isnt too strong. when SB raises hes repping J3, 93, 63 or 33. but as played, not folding turn, since we're getting better than 3-1 which is an amazing price for our hand, plus implied odds since hes probs stacking off on all rivers. we probs don't have any fold equity here, so i just like calling and folding if we brick.
also, stack sizes would help a lot in this hand.
So if we value bet turn and get shoved on what do we do?
+MrLucidLJ what do you think their CR range is? We shouldn't check just because facing a CR is uncomfortable =)
+James (SplitSuit) oh I wasn't suggesting just checking this either I was thinking of betting but was wondering if we bet out 55-60 they shove 120 are we committed to call as you said they could have sets even QQ or KQ.
+MrLucidLJ Excellent! I stack it given the price I'd be getting. Will I always win it? No. Will I win it often enough? I think so.
+James (SplitSuit) Its just one of those spots I guess but then thinking about it if we do get shoved I can't imagine much worse hands shoving the turn. I have a hand to send you how long is the queue ATM.
+MrLucidLJ about 50 videos. Just make sure to send the raw HH =)
Villains river bet is really interesting to me - the fact it was pot rather than a shove, despite leaving them only $45. If we assume that someone at this level is probably doing some hand reading then does Hero's Q check indicate weakness that villain wants to punish. Then why not all in? It looks like something where villain is perfectly happy getting called but isn't 100% sure he's ahead.
So I think it is AK. Remember he does three bet open. He then calls hero's 3 bet. Then acts exactly as you would expect we would afterwards (we're going to call a c-bet on a wet board, check a Q, raise a K).
hi people can somebody help me with this hand?
it's from nl5 / 6 max (cash game)
the action goes limping to me
i have JJ on the small blind and I decided to make a raise to 0.45 to isolate a short stack limper.
he calls me and also another player(deep stacked) called me
flop: 5 k 4 raimbow
I decided to not c bet out of position because the oppo range was full of kings he checked behind me
turn: 5
I decided to delay c-bet on the turn about 1/3 - 1/2 of the pot
oppo reraise
I folded
oppo had a strange hand, 54 suited so he made his trips on the turn
now,I was right not cbetting or is a bad move generally?
+Lastellaofficial Were you raising 9x with only 1 limper? That seems kinda big, even at 5nl. 2nd villain's (I'm assuming he's BB) call probably isn't terrible if you're both deep and you'll make mistakes oop. If you think he has lots of Kings in his range, then why are you betting the turn? Exact stack sizes would be useful.
guys somebody can help me with this strange hand? could I play this better?
NL5
preflop: 3 limpers before me (2 calling stations and a loose aggressive player)
hero AJs raise 0.30 from the small blind
the loose aggressive minraised to 0.60 and I called
so I went heads up to the flop with the loose aggressive
flop: 9 Q 9 rainbow
pot 1,35 €
I checked
loose aggressive bet 0.60 as a continuation bet
i decided to raise to 1.50because he was continuation betting every single pot until that moment
loose aggressive call
I was shocked by the call and I didn't know what to do I decided to go for the check/fold into the next streets
turn:3
pot 4.35
I checked
loose aggressive checks
river: 8
no flush possibilites
I checked
he checked behind
I won the pot with ace high
despite i won the pot I wanted to know if I could play it better this strange hand
+Lastellaofficial hes not really that strong when he limp min raises your iso. i like a 4bet, given how loose he is. c/r flop is a little spewy since youre not generally getting called by worse, even if you did this time (did he have KJ?). against vil range, your hand has sdv, so i think a good plan is to get to sd cheap.
+Lastellaofficial Ip I'd prefer flatting, but oop against a heavy 3bettor a 4bet is probably better. Agree, against 100% c-bet don't raise flop, call (allow him to keep betting with worse). Otherwise this is often gonna happen: Flop: x,b,r,c! Turn: x?,x. R: x,b,? Raising flop makes for a difficult spot where you're turning AJ into a bluff and either have to bet the turn (and possibly riv) as well or check and have a tough decision on turn and/or river in a big pot with ace high. As a general rule you want to keep the pot smaller oop and get to showdown for the minimum without a strong hand.
shouldnt we just get it in on the river given the plan??? not just flat call this potential bluff
+Babyface Nelson That's a terrible idea. Think about it.
If it's a bluff he's going to fold and you only get his bet. If it's not a bluff then you lose the extra money you put into the pot. There's absolutely NO reason to push all in because in a situation like this the overwheliming majority of the time the ONLY thing that will call you is something that beats you. The other advantage here is that if it is a bluff we get to see his hand. You should never ever EVER shove on someone whom you think is bluffing when you've got a hand with show down value because there's no reason to do so. The only reason to shove into someone with a bluff is if YOU are bluffing and you want him to fold his bluff.
In this case, however, our hand is not a bluff hand.