I agree with your summary... however clinical it is. The over riding factor not considered in your overview is excitement of the market. That is quite intangible... Given the pump every time there is good news, I would anticipate an end of 2024 to be over %5.00 by a nice margin. I would expect consistent 6's to 7 and E.O 25 to be $10'sw regardless of profitability... I expect RKLB to hit $25.00 minimum by then.
Thank you for the video. I was initially confused by your use of the term "retail price target." I understand that it refers to your personal price target, not an aggregate target from retail investors. The current share price is $5. You're essentially suggesting that factors like FOMC rate cuts, the commencing rotation into small caps, Starship, the announcement of the Amazon contract and the resulting revenue increase, Neutron on the pad and potentially its launch in mid 2025, as well as a doubling of the backlog, will all have zero impact on the share price in next 12 months. In fact, you are suggesting that the share price will be lower by 1 cent from today. I mean no disrespect, it will be interesting to see how you revisit your price targets in the future. The Goldman analyst has been proven wrong immediately. May I ask what is the logic behind you valuing this quickly growing company as one would value a stagnant, twilight company paying dividends?
Hey Michal thank you for watching. After recording this video I realized I could've been more clear about this. Rather than nailing exactly $5 in 12 months, what I mean is that I wouldn't be surprised if we see RL stuck in a $5-ish range, similar to what we've seen with $4 range over the past couple years. That being said - during this '$4 range period' we saw lows of $3.50, and highs of $8+. 12 months out, I'm under the impression that RL will still be range-bound, just at a higher level than we've seen over the past couple years. So within this new $5 range, we could drop back into the low 4s, and just as likely we could see $8+ again. I'm looking at things more in terms of a moving average, rather than an exact price. It's not until after Neutron is in operation, the constellation is announced, profitability is in sight, and there is no more risk of bankruptcy that the share price is going to really break out, imo.
Scott, I'm a RKLB shareholder. Here's a TRANSCRIPT excerpt. Already in 22 Sep 2022, (37th ELECTRON launch) Peter Beck is TURNING HIS BACK ON LAUNCH at Rocket Lab, speaking at their Investor Day & Neutron Update, to a room full of first tier investors (!!) 6:49 PETER: "I think about um the company we're actually not very 6:55 good at naming stuff um believe it or not and WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE CALLED THE COMPANY SPACE LAB INSTEAD OF ROCKET 7:02 LAB BECAUSE EVERYONE THINKS WE JUST BUILD ROCKETS but at the end of the day um you know the vision the vision Remains the Same and that's really to 7:08 have have meaningful impact SO LAUNCH WAS JUST THE BEGINNING FOR US" --------- No wonder LAUNCH had fallen to 26% of revenue, in Q1 2024 Revenue Call. Peter Beck in a Rocket Lab video on RUclips, 22 Sep 2022, down plays the importance of rocket LAUNCH in Rocket Lab's future.
I have a feeling these analysts will magically up their price targets as soon as their front office confirms they’ve established their desired position.
These analysts are going to be sick when it gets up to $15+ by the end of the year . Just shows they are taking no time to understand the market and the company.
A likely contributor to the irrational rise after the 10-launch contract was the irrational drops that had occurred after previous successes and previous huge contracts. The SP should have been higher at the time of the 10-launch contract.
Scott, you're the numbers champ, no doubt. My retail share dart flies higher than yours, $10, 12 months target, IF AND ONLY IF, Rocket Lab's NEUTRON rocket, is "on the pad", June 2025, and does an integrated hot fire test. Otherwise, $6+ anytime from now, when ARCHIMEDES engine, on public display, proves a hot fire test success - meaning, it doesn't blow up. I believe retail share price is driven by enthusiasm for LAUNCH baby LAUNCH, regardless of profitability. I don't disagree with numbers, but if the above LAUNCH becomes true (there's a flying NEUTRON), then profitability follows, and RKLB will be $20 to $30 to start, and after that, the sky is the limit. A result Space Services (everything except Launch) cannot achieve by itself.
When you talk about price break-out after profitability, what are we talking about? Since the current "$5" range went from $3.50 to $8, I'm assuming you're looking at something bigger? 3x? 5x? 10x?
if you listen to the analyst comments from the previous earning report you would change your mind. Analysts are more wrong than right. They are just very good at explaining why
Are any of those so called experts, (I don't mean you Scott), considering the competition? The ELECTRON DISRUPTER is back! FIREFLY's ALPHA, 1,030 kg to LEO, LAUNCHES, "Noise of Summer" mission, Wed Jun 26, 2024 9:00 PM MST, SLC-2W, Vandenberg SFB, California, USA.
They were also wrong about NVDA. They didnt start rating it higher till.... wait for it... till the stock started going higher.
RL, I believe, would already be profitable if not for their Neutron
R & D. Many investors overlook that.
🎯
I agree with your summary... however clinical it is. The over riding factor not considered in your overview is excitement of the market. That is quite intangible... Given the pump every time there is good news, I would anticipate an end of 2024 to be over %5.00 by a nice margin. I would expect consistent 6's to 7 and E.O 25 to be $10'sw regardless of profitability... I expect RKLB to hit $25.00 minimum by then.
Is not about earnings yet. It’s about growth. % of market share and the growth of the TAM
Thank you for the video. I was initially confused by your use of the term "retail price target." I understand that it refers to your personal price target, not an aggregate target from retail investors. The current share price is $5. You're essentially suggesting that factors like FOMC rate cuts, the commencing rotation into small caps, Starship, the announcement of the Amazon contract and the resulting revenue increase, Neutron on the pad and potentially its launch in mid 2025, as well as a doubling of the backlog, will all have zero impact on the share price in next 12 months. In fact, you are suggesting that the share price will be lower by 1 cent from today. I mean no disrespect, it will be interesting to see how you revisit your price targets in the future. The Goldman analyst has been proven wrong immediately. May I ask what is the logic behind you valuing this quickly growing company as one would value a stagnant, twilight company paying dividends?
interest in a response to this.
So true
I think 2025 Price will be more likely to be 8-12$ if Neutron will be ok
Hey Michal thank you for watching. After recording this video I realized I could've been more clear about this.
Rather than nailing exactly $5 in 12 months, what I mean is that I wouldn't be surprised if we see RL stuck in a $5-ish range, similar to what we've seen with $4 range over the past couple years.
That being said - during this '$4 range period' we saw lows of $3.50, and highs of $8+.
12 months out, I'm under the impression that RL will still be range-bound, just at a higher level than we've seen over the past couple years.
So within this new $5 range, we could drop back into the low 4s, and just as likely we could see $8+ again.
I'm looking at things more in terms of a moving average, rather than an exact price.
It's not until after Neutron is in operation, the constellation is announced, profitability is in sight, and there is no more risk of bankruptcy that the share price is going to really break out, imo.
@@scotto2050 Thank you for the clarification.
Scott, I'm a RKLB shareholder. Here's a TRANSCRIPT excerpt. Already in 22 Sep 2022, (37th ELECTRON launch) Peter Beck is TURNING HIS BACK ON LAUNCH at Rocket Lab, speaking at their Investor Day & Neutron Update, to a room full of first tier investors (!!)
6:49 PETER: "I think about um the company we're actually not very
6:55 good at naming stuff um believe it or not and WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE CALLED THE COMPANY SPACE LAB INSTEAD OF ROCKET
7:02 LAB BECAUSE EVERYONE THINKS WE JUST BUILD ROCKETS but at the end of the day um you know the vision the vision Remains the Same and that's really to
7:08 have have meaningful impact SO LAUNCH WAS JUST THE BEGINNING FOR US"
---------
No wonder LAUNCH had fallen to 26% of revenue, in Q1 2024 Revenue Call.
Peter Beck in a Rocket Lab video on RUclips, 22 Sep 2022, down plays the importance of rocket LAUNCH in Rocket Lab's future.
I have a feeling these analysts will magically up their price targets as soon as their front office confirms they’ve established their desired position.
You know thay cant do that the so called ethical wall
@@joelhaydon6823 And how do you stop that from happening?
Just like the movie the big short
Hahahaha all lying and making obfuscations and load up fast but act silly and coy so ridiculous right????
Scott is always Soup for the RKLB Soul :-)
Great video! Always love the seeing your analysis
These analysts are going to be sick when it gets up to $15+ by the end of the year . Just shows they are taking no time to understand the market and the company.
Good job 👍 , livescore frome belgium .
Scotto vids... i watches ⌚️
Is there a way to access the underlying reports?
A likely contributor to the irrational rise after the 10-launch contract was the irrational drops that had occurred after previous successes and previous huge contracts. The SP should have been higher at the time of the 10-launch contract.
Great stuff! Thanks for sharing!
Serious question. Do you think RL will eventually issue dividends? Or will it focus on growth?
Dividends are for late-stage companies. I'd bet no dividends until 2030+
Great vid, as usual Scott!
Scott, you're the numbers champ, no doubt. My retail share dart flies higher than yours, $10, 12 months target, IF AND ONLY IF, Rocket Lab's NEUTRON rocket, is "on the pad", June 2025, and does an integrated hot fire test. Otherwise, $6+ anytime from now, when ARCHIMEDES engine, on public display, proves a hot fire test success - meaning, it doesn't blow up.
I believe retail share price is driven by enthusiasm for LAUNCH baby LAUNCH, regardless of profitability.
I don't disagree with numbers, but if the above LAUNCH becomes true (there's a flying NEUTRON), then profitability follows, and RKLB will be $20 to $30 to start, and after that, the sky is the limit. A result Space Services (everything except Launch) cannot achieve by itself.
When you talk about price break-out after profitability, what are we talking about? Since the current "$5" range went from $3.50 to $8, I'm assuming you're looking at something bigger? 3x? 5x? 10x?
Price target - $8
Metric - They are awesome 😅
You think new banks spend time researching stocks and companies the size of rocket labs. I doubt they devote a fill l full day
Price targets, too much time on price targets, stock is worth what people want to pay for it. What would SpaceX price target be five years ago?
Until Rocket Lab has a full line of reusable launch vehicles, it will continue to operate in the lower operating scale.
Scotto looks like one of the nihists from the big lebowski.
😅
👍
Wall Street isn’t stupid - they have the brightest minds in the world. To think ‘they have missed’ is simply amateur
if you listen to the analyst comments from the previous earning report you would change your mind. Analysts are more wrong than right. They are just very good at explaining why
LOL i worked for banks for decades. Have you even stepped in a large banks hq. If you had you wouldn't make comments like that
Are any of those so called experts, (I don't mean you Scott), considering the competition?
The ELECTRON DISRUPTER is back!
FIREFLY's ALPHA, 1,030 kg to LEO, LAUNCHES, "Noise of Summer" mission, Wed Jun 26, 2024 9:00 PM MST, SLC-2W, Vandenberg SFB, California, USA.
Now these analysts can see the future. All these predictions are a waste of time.
27$🤗✌️🐾🐯🎼🌈🕊️🌎
Oh and you missed your stalker on rklb weekly 🤣
🤦♂😅