Security dynamics on Korean Peninsula: Expert analysis

북-러-이란 밀착 속 고조되는 한반도 안보 위기
The two Koreas marked the six-year anniversary of the historic Panmunjeom Declaration, but inter-Korean tensions are reaching new highs.
North Korea persists in its hostility towards the South, actively undermining the military tension reduction agreement, while boosting exchanges with Russia and Iran.
All this, while the possibility of Trump’s second presidency is complicating South Korea’s efforts to fortify its military alliance with the U.S. and protect itself from North Korea threats.
For an expert analysis on the latest security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula we have our weekly commentator Go Myong-hyun from the Institute for National Security Strategy joining us in the studio.
We also have John Nilsson-Wright, head of the Japan and Koreas Programme at Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics joining us from the UK.
(GO) Q1. It has been found that North Korea has laid landmines along all roads connecting the two Koreas in the DMZ. The roads were constructed as part of the 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement. What do you make of this?
(NILSSON-WRIGHT) Q2. North Korea issued a series of statements last week, warning of a strong response against a new North Korea monitoring system currently in the works. The U.S. is mulling options to create a new mechanism for monitoring sanctions on North Korea’s nuclear program with its allies. What do we know so far about the new system and what are your prospects?
(GO) Q3. Another of North Korea’s sanctions evasion has been witnessed recently. Kim Jong Un, during his trip to a top military university, showed up with several new customized Toyota SUVs, once again demonstrating the state’s ability to circumvent sanctions. What areas call for improvement to remove surveillance blind spots?
(NILSSON-WRIGHT) Q4. A North Korean delegation led by the state’s trade minister visited Iran, in a rare overseas trip. How concerned are you about growing military ties among North Korea, Iran and Russia, and its threat to regional security?
(GO) Q5. Russian President Putin will visit China next month. What is China’s stance toward the suspected military cooperation among Russia, North Korea and Iran, and how would President Xi deal with the issue during his summit with Putin?
(NILSSON-WRIGHT) Q6. A major Chinese shipyard has harbored a cargo ship suspected to be linked to North Korea-Russia arms trade, according to recent satellite imagery. The U.S. State Department has responded that it takes the issue “incredibly seriously”. What is your biggest concern regarding China’s possible involvement?
(NILSSON-WRIGHT) Q7. Staying with you Dr. Nilsson-Wright, former US President Trump reportedly suggested that the US could withdraw its troops if South Korea does not contribute more to support US troops stationed in Korea. His remarks came after Seoul and Washington wrapped up their first round of negotiations for a new defense cost sharing set to be applied from 2026. Would the two countries be able to strike a deal before the US presidential election in November, and what would happen in case of Trump’s second presidency?
(GO) Q8. The historic Panmunjeom Declaration marked its sixth anniversary on Saturday, but inter-Korean tensions are reaching new highs, with some here in Korea stressing the need for South Korea to possess its own nuclear deterrent. According to a recent survey by a U.S. think-tank the CSIS, about one third of Korean experts support South Korea pursuing nuclear weapons. What are your thoughts?
And that brings us to the end of this show.
Thank you for watching, and be sure to tune in same time tomorrow to join our conversation.
Good bye for now.
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2024-05-01, 18:30 (KST)