The Black Swan Theory
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
- Read the story: whatifshow.com/the-black-swan...
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You are a chicken. Yes, you.
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Развлечения
I am a chicken
Yes, you...
OK
Indeed
i look around…
You're skeptical
Aperture: you are a chicken
Me: I know where this is going
Aperture:*Starts talking numbers*
Me: I don't know where this is going...
😂
Me too bruh 🤣
@@thatsconfidential6827 😂😂😂 thought I was alone...😂😂😂
You just experienced Dunning-Kruger effect 😂
I don't get it?
It'd be interesting to do a compilation of biographies on failed nobodies. What went wrong? Where, why, and how did they fail? How does this compare to others?
Man I hope I don’t end up on that
i agree....we should at least have a fair idea about how many failed, why how...
Yeah it'd be cool to talk about how much their lives sucked and how much they sucked and why that suckiness is relevant today. What went wrong? Where, why, and how did they suck? Why am I typing this comment? Interesting...
As a famous fictional Captain once said "It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not weakness. That is life." .
Assuming a group of people do all the "proper" steps to achieving the same "success", the only thing that will determine the winner is just luck - which I guess is just a simplification of a large collection of factors that we have little to no control over. It is an upsetting thought, but it is just true. Hard work, intelligence, dedication and all the good stuff are of course very important. But there over 7 billion people on this planet. So it is simply statistically likely that there are hundreds of people who have all done everything humanly possible to achieve "success". Hundreds of people who have done everything "right".
At least for me, I think the best we can do is just change this perception of a singular type of "success" that cultures have developed. Once we remove things like "You need this big of a salary" or "You need this luxury item" or "You need to be employed or live in this particular place", then a lot more of us can experience this "success" that a lot of people seem to chase. Once you make enough money to support yourself reasonably well, the rest of your time should ideally be spent enjoying life (as long as it does not come at the expense of others). Because we only live once, and our lives could be cut short at any moment regardless of how prepared we are.
ruclips.net/user/SoftWhiteUnderbelly
“We are all black swan events” what an extraordinary way to put it! How absurdly improbable our very existence is, a brief flash of light between two mighty chasms of darkness. We should revel in our time.
The worse thing about betrayal is that it doesn't come from an enemy...
that's... what betrayal is all about😂
No, but a friend🙁
it easier to betray someone than it is to forgive them. Just know that anyone given the reason or motive can and will betray you without you ever expecting it.
The frustration is also temporary. Until the police find the body.
It came from an enemy. It's us who misclassified them as friends. Expectations suck sometimes 😃
"You are a chicken"
-COD flashback intensifies
@@br34kout82 lol
COD is a fish
@@-M0LE I’m talking about call of duty, my bad
"50,000 chickens used to live here, now it's a ghost town... I've never seen anything like it" -Cptn. Mcchicken 2007
@@Anxmaly666 lmao Call Of Duty: Modern Robot Chicken Warfare
My black swan event is that I got a diagnosis of pure O OCD. I was doing great in my studies, in college getting good grades, and everything was going fine. Then suddenly got the shock of my life; at that time I was not able to handle the shock. My OCD attack's intensity increased, I had 24x7 heightened anxiety with waves of panic attacks, lost 5 kg within 2-3 days, was not able to eat, I thought I will go mad. But now I am able to accept my condition and working on it. The worst part is you can not trust your own brain. It sucks but I know many are going the similar or even worst . Power and love to all.
Watching these type of negative videos only builds on anxiety
Okay interesting story but actually none loses 5kg in 3 days
Well stop going to the witch doctors then.
"the people who failed don't tend to write memoirs." reminds me of "history is written by the winners." the power of overlooking the obvious and mundane is in itself also overlooked.
at the end of the day, though, I've lived with disordered anxiety my whole life and I've learned that you just take what you can learn and keep moving forward. if you dwell so much on the fears of "the next black swan event" you'll be paralyzed and you could argue your preparedness is wasted. and when we learn from history and prevent the known black swan events, that's still valuable. that's still a good thing. just because there will always be another problem doesn't mean the problems you solved don't matter.
But as the saying goes “better to be a warrior in the garden than a gardener in the war”
The part that stuck with me was the "knowledge that dont change behavior is useless, but knowledge that changes behavior loses its relevance " 7:19 , in one way it means you can only be very useful once, then just useful and finally mundane .
One thing worst than a black swan would be a blue swan , but we can only see in shades of black and white , something lurking around, we just dont see it as it truly is , that happens a lot during the human history, people had all the things needed for something, it just never clicked for them , like the famous " we put man on the moon , before putting wheels in the luggage ".
Omg yes!! This is an information contradiction that haunts me constantly, at least in the way I tend to think of it.
We don't know shit until we need the information, then we have it, but most likely, don't need it anymore, or for the foreseeable future at least.
We try to learn from past success scenarios, but those aren't applicable any more, if ever.
In simple terms, even if the information are there to point out to something, we don't manage to process that knowledge right?
This is truly terrifying. The knowledge is there, but we don't know it. When we eventually know it, it's already useless. We try to use it for future preparation, but another knowledge arises
Better example is the washer machine an vacuum, meanwhile men died of breathing coal dust down the road while the respiration mask was put on the back burner to be created later.
Priorities mang
That statement is absolute crap.
Nice. 654 people can't tell the difference between Einstein and a monkey on a typewriter.
Your voice is so calming it feels relaxed hearing it
@@robbyz512 sir give me your credit card number and cv to remove virus from your computer
Ik right even for videos I wasn't really feeling. I still watched all the way through just to listen to him lmao
It seems i have accidentally sent you 10000 instead of 100 im going to need you to pay me back
@@robbyz512 Oh cum on dude. Indian? Seriously? We chinese have the best voices.
Right! I could sleep to this. Just as good as my sleep sounds 💯
I've personally experienced two big black swan events in my life (personal black swans you might say); firstly, me and my friends were robbed at knife point while filming in a park in broad daylight but more dramatically, in 2020, I lived through a major flood/storm in France. I had fears in my mind before then, like a forest fire (as I lived in a mountanious village at the time) or being in a plane crash and yet another very rare event did happen, just not the one I had feared or considered really.
I feel the Covid 19 pandemic was a black swan. I look back to pre pandemic and miss it. My entire view on the world, my life, and everything changed so much. It feels so different now. Just sad.
The question is just if it just happend, or if there is a butcher....
@@Gaphalor Follow the money. ;)
Me three
The Pandemic, no, the reaction, yes. Theire is a pandemic every few years Saars Covid 1 was far more dangerous, we just dealt with it. Swine flew killed a good number but people didn't care.
Pandemics are a "Normal" kind of event, no matter how many deaths, they don't have a big impact of the human population. I think the black plague was the biggest followed by HIV AIDS the difference being the world population.
@@Gaphalor or did the higher being mess up their project (us) or it was just willing event to observe the aftermath..
"the odds of being born are 1 in 400 trillion"
when i tell you that sentence made me pause.. y'all
He actually made a whole video on that you should go watch it if you haven’t already
Really unlucky to be born
Nope. It's one in infinity. Every single event, big or small led to your birth. Every single event.
But the thing is before your born you just don’t exist and obviously have no consciousness *you just don’t exist* you either agree or disagree by the fact that your lucky for being part of that 1 in a 400 trillion but you can only think about that if you exist that is born.
@@grimsobad8545 ignorance is bliss, the fact that we exist is pain. We are the biggest joke in history, only born to die
This video is a masterclass. Shows how tiny our problems are...How one small mishap can just ruin it all.And yet, we march on. Dare I say, one could even call Humanity over-confident for it's own good, but then again, wouldn't being cautious just do nothing anyways, since the Black swan event is bound to hit anyways...(just not the one we expect)
So I say, be cautious in the short-term present(that is in the tiny human life-span) and over-confident for the future.
That ending though.
Funny to imagine, an event as unlikely as "You" to be born, yet it happend to all of us.
A chance so unimaginably small seems so natural to those who've made it.
Another deep video making me rethink everything for a few days
Days?
Cuz this video is such a beauty right?
And yet we'll never change anything and forget about it after said days passed by
"the anti-epiphany"
Bcuz we don't allow our views to crumble and then put the effort in to rebuilding new ones. We don't act on the insight...just marvel at it til it passes. 🤷♂️
If you understand this video, could you interpret it for me?
Good example of a black swan for me came earlier this year when Texas got hit by a snowstorm. Texas rarely gets snow, so the energy companies weren't prepared for the snow to shut down their operations, which led to an energy shortage. So for a week, they had rolling blackouts in a lot of energy grids. On top of living in a freezing house with no power for a week, two pipes burst in my house, leading to a lot of water damage. So, almost our entire house had to have damages fixed, and we're still out of our house for those fixes today.
In his next book, Antifragile, he asks how high we should build a dam? The usual answer is to build it to the highest ever recorded water level. Yet, before that water level was recorded, the previous high was lower than that, so building the dam as high as the highest known water level is vulnerable to a higher, as-yet-not-known water level.
And because this is rare, it's unlikely that we'll be prepared for the next event like this (Texas resident here). And this is true regardless of how many promises we've received to the contrary.
@@lifecloud2 not just rare, unprecedented 😃. If this is an interesting thought train to you, then I recommend Antrifragile. The premise is that people commonly think that the opposite of fragile is solid, resistant, strong. The author says that these are not opposites of fragile, but really in the middle. Fragile is the tendency to break under stress. He says that the opposite of that is not to just not break under stress. The opposite is to become stronger under stress. Working out and growing bigger muscles, getting sick and recovering, are examples of being antifragile. I like the concept, and I think it evokes useful life philosophies.
@@JesseHelton Ah, the old Nietzche idea: "That which does not kill me...etc." You say that fragile is the tendency to break under stress, and to me in order to grow strong from this you have to break first. How about the opposite of fragile being more about the ability to adapt ... being flexible, bendable, negotiating the stress instead of breaking to find your strength? And the idea of the opposite of love being apathy is one I like. It sort of betrays a middle ground too.
To me, the problems with the world we know these days is that the people involved tend to think in binary terms (which drives me nuts). You are either for me or against me. This doesn't allow for the middle ground. Maybe the solution here is finding the middle ground, the gray area that connects the two extremes.
The Biden Administration ordered the electric companies to restrain output to abide by their new environmental standards, the marginal supply of electricity was purposely limited which blew up the grid due to the excessive demand.
This year I had a huge black swan that caught me completely off-guard. People pretty much always become black swans when you think they care about you, and not only about themselves.
Felipe, The secret to success is caring and loving other folks as much as you care for and love yourself.
@@rogerdvorak6045what no one teaches you in church, school etc is that you have a finite of fucks to give so you have to be selective with whom you love. It’s a hard truth but negative people do exist. That’s reality
"when you think they care aboit you, and not only about themselves"
What?
I live in Perth, Western Australia. The river in this city is the Swan River. Named for the black swans that live here.... the original black swan event was when European explorers found this part of the world.
I was frustrated on not getting a job today and watching aperture calms me even if it is just temporary so that I can feel a sense of serenity.
I've been looking for a while too. Got a call back today.
You got this. Stay the course
The frustration is temporary too.
you will definitely land one soon! wish you the best
Good luck
stay strong my friend, you'll get what you want
Is it ever really possible to plan for the future? Super interesting how the more we plan for past Black Swans, the more lulled into false security we become. Preparation from the past could enhance naivete in the future.
Hope for the best. Expect the worst. Job done.
The only answer that I come up with is developing yourself
Well, it is as he said. If you have knowledge that changes behavior, it becomes irrelevant. It is necessary to prepare, otherwise, you wouldn't have learned anything. But the people in our society are the way too distracted with the "important" topics, like doing drugs, partying, and shit like that. Good luck to us, we need it.
@@thorH. Isn't it only irrelevant to the Black Swan? After all, if you survive it, the knowledge proved useful to you, if not to anyone else
@@wheredhego47 I mean the part of the definition of a black swan is that it is an unexpected. So you can’t really prepare, what you can do is become generally resilient, which could be understood as preparing. However you can learn improve and prevent the same disaster to hit again.
Thanks, the world needs more people like you. Keep creating such informative videos, all the best!
When I worked with USAF intelligence in the 1980's a 911 type event was a continual nightmare as cells were broken all the time. the years of work that went into preventing such an event had gone on for at least 20 years at that time. Multiple events had been thwarted before the 911 scenario was carried out. Tom Clancy novels are full of such scenarios predicted by various intelligence agencies. It only seemed to be a black swan event to those outside the community who had warned of this for many years. Most people live in blissful ignorance of how many times life changing events, and society changing events are avoided.
”these people here? Everyone out there? They have no idea what it takes to keep them safe"
you were like the middle in between butcherer and the chicken? Its a stupid analogy butttttt
Woah!
In my 37 year life I hadn't experienced the death of a close loved one until 2019 when my Mom suddenly died of cancer..
I always knew what death was, is and the emotions that come with it.
This was different though.. I didn't and still don't deal with it well, and almost every aspect of my life is different then before. Someone who I thought would be around for many more years and then one day go to hospital to die the next night..
I guess that's my Black Swan.
Deepest condolences 🙏😢
Same story with me. Even knowing what to do didn't even gave me the chance to prevent things from getting worse. She was the heart of the family. At least I dreamed one night and she said she can walk now. Stopped my questioning of useful knowledge to have. Now I just offer my good deeds on her behalf. I know she is better now. I hope you would find yours too.
My dad died suddenly in his sleep 7 months ago now, I’m 27, my dad was 58. I loved my dad, he was the best dad a man could ask for. I know how you feel my man, it’s rough. Much love, I hope you and your family are doing well now
@@MaybejustNarbe sorry for your loss.
@@io8259 sorry for your loss
"people who fail don't seem to write memories" that's inevitable
History is write for those who survived, the same filling
There's an amazing book called "Epitaph of a Small Winner" written by a guy called Machado de Assis in 1881, from Brazil. Although written in a totally different era, it is surprisingly modern feeling in its writing. Most books from then are very flowery and descriptive but this is so blunt, hilarious, intelligent and perceptive. It's also a short book, and the chapters are literally 1-5 pages at most. It's written from the perspective of a guy who already died and is telling you about his life as a general failure, who was born into a well-to-do family and had a good life, but really accomplished nothing much of his own accord. While he doesn't have a huge downfall like a total failure, he doesn't rise to any real goals, and in the end has sort of cruised through life to end up pretty much where he started. While not a memoir I think the writer drew on a lot of his own life experiences for it. Definitely unique and ahead of it's time by about 100 years.
It also has one of the best chapters of writing ever in it, I'd say close to on par with The Grand Inquisitor by Dostoevsky, where the main character is delirious in bed and has an encounter with Lady Death/The God of Death. I can't stress how intense and beautifully written it is.
Machado de Assis is considered like the Shakespeare of Brazil, he is incredibly famous there.
@@uniquechannelnames wow man
@@tiagomori2534 It makes me think about whether history really happened or not, since the only people who wrote about it were people who won the wars and survived the circumstances, then was able to write the same narrative for everyone to see and believe. The stories were not told from the perspective of the defeated, and no doubt if we heard their side of the story the tale would be much more nuanced.
Bro the way he said "you are a chicken" was so perfect.
loved the video, its quite insightful about what we ignore and what we are totally oblivious to, thank you
This is literally philosophy the RUclips channel and it’s brilliant
Agree...
there are multiple channels like or similar to this though
@@imkaynosnihh2679 examples ?
@@c.990 Sisyphus55
and it's sponsored by brilliant*
It's the only book I ever bought and almost finished.
My understanding is that a black swan is an event which occurs as a result of a blind spot in our perception about the past and future.
A key point he makes in illustrating the black swan is that history progresses in leaps and bounds. And these are all black swans. We believe we saw them coming by looking at the series of events that lead up to it and fool ourselves into thinking it was expected. But in actual fact its always a surprise. And he calls it the hindsight fallacy.
The idea is we live in a constant illusion of undertanding the likely course of the future when infact this is totally false. And when this fact is proven true time and again through history which fail to learn this fact by explaining away the past once it's already happened. Maintaining the illusion of certainty. Continuing the blindspot to allow further blackswans to emerge. Blackswans can be both good and bad but always have a high impact and change the course of history.
It's bolder than it seems. He is saying history is like a tree with many possible branches and the course that it takes is infact mostly determined by black swans. And that they emerge because we are ignorant to how it all works. Ofcourse in the times we are living in it is obviously more of a cautionary point than anything else.
Fascinating. Would you say that theory relates to gamblers fallacy?
I saw the black swan before it arrived. Tried to stop it, for me it’s that you cannot. No matter the effort applied, you seem to fail.
@@heatherlindsey971 A black swan that you saw coming is not a black swan. The idea of a black swan is a seemingly impossible event that gets proven to be possible only after it has happened.
@@ann_alanth perfect description
"Only book I've ever bought and almost finished", what the fuck?
Your videos are always so beautiful and poetic. A necessarily elaborate, and comforting perspective shift on such seemingly mundane ideas. Thank you for your line of reasoning and investigation in such an unreasonable world.
This is such an ironic video to come across because right now were going through a black swan event
When we’re all our own black swans, the best we can do is soar above and admire the greatness of the flock below
Why did the chicken cross the playground?
To get to the other slide.
Okay, this is a good one, you got a laugh from me
@@pikloo4631 haha thanks a lot I try I try 😌
@@user-rj5ld9gk6u To get to the other side.
@@user-rj5ld9gk6u I'm not a chicken so I wouldn't know
@@norma8686 😂
I'M SO GLAD THAT I HAVE FOUND THIS CHANNEL! LOVE UR EVERY VIDEOS
“You should’ve never crossed the road” Oh man, the way you slipped that in there dead pan as the rest of the essay and didn’t acknowledge it at all. That was perfect.
Such a stupid joke but it got me. Good one dude.
I didn't know my therapy session has started
"You are a chicken."
Two seconds in and this is already one of my favorite Aperture episodes
This is exactly what has happened to me this year. I was so connected to everything, then in one day, everything changed.
How tf do you only have this less viewss!!!. Thisss was sooo fricking well madeee
Brilliant video! Surely the pandemic has demonstrated people’s inability to prepare for something that many people were predicting.
@Skittle Thor to find out all you have to do is run an RTFM test
We did prepare for it lookup Event 201 which took place 5 months before the pandemic funded by WHO and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Spars 2025, Operation Lockstep. They predicted what would happen and yet somehow we were 'unprepared' anyway. Bill Gates literally said they hadn't planned it on TV despite funding Event 201.
Use DuckDuckGo to find the truth. Google censors.
Plandemic.
So the next one will be the "cyberpandemic" that they have been wargaming.
@@willmorrell488 ok
Feels like the opposite, or catalyst to a paradigm shift. That point at which your mind reinterprets reality to cope with information it is unfamiliar with.
Post Nut Clarity?
@@certifiedcat1494 what?
@@certifiedcat1494 What?😂
@@certifiedcat1494 😂😂
*This video WAS A BLACK SWAN* . When I thought I knew where it was going, was lulled into false confidence, and when I was the most confident about the video’s subject matter it turned out to be something totally different. That’s pretty impressive if it was intentional.
Wow, this was beautifully written. You've got a new sub 💪🏾
As a UI designer, I REALLY like the font you use in your video. Looks very authoritative and timeless.
Yo, Aperture! You should really invest in a de-esser for your audio post-processing. You have a very calming voice, but for some of us the sharp S's really stand out.
For sure, the S’s kinda hurt my ears 😂
Didn't realise it till you pointed it out and now I can't unhear it.
A truly insightful video! Thank you for sharing your intellectual wealth.
this is one of the few channels i actually enjoy sitting through the sponsors/ads
Aperture: You are a chicken
Me : Never have I been so offended by something I 100 agree with
As a person who has bird phobia, this video was both scary and calming at the same time
i really really like this channel...wonderful observation,analysis and food for thought
What an amazing video, downright mesmerizing.
OMG how you ended the video is probably the coolest shit I've ever heard
Do you mean the advertisement?
If you expect the unexpected, does that make the unexpected expected?
Both
I didn't expect that!
You can't expect the unexpected, Since that makes the event expected.
@@OK-69420 so the unexpected is unexpected to people that don’t expect it but not to those that do? Wow
@@hydromic2518 Exactly. Reality is just a matter of perspective
For all the people out there that have trouble with their own thoughts.
Engage them, don't let them affect you, and give yourself about an hour or two to do nothing.
Don't listen to music, don't watch tv, shut off your phone. Just sit and relax and embrace the boring.
After you sorted all your thoughts out you will be so relieved because it becomes quiet and calm forever.
I'm not a specialist, I'm an introvert analyzing people and myself my whole life. If you can build up just a bit of trust and you have problems with your thoughts (sleep, anxiety, restlessness)
Then I highly recommend to not avert your thoughts of being productive and let your brain and emotions work on themselves, even if it feels uneasy
Have a great day
Almost? Almost anxiety inducing? This is the most powerful video I've ever seen to explain not only black swan, but just straight up, how-people-think. I've had this shit trapped in my head for so long, and you articulated it perfectly.😮
Maybe the real Black Swan is the friends we’ve made along the way.
I love you.
We all are the black swan
A lot of your videos make me rethink a lot of things. They can make a person better. I really believe a lot of your essays should be used in school for home economics etc.
I would recommend Alan Watts if you haven't heard of him
Simply an excellent philosophical video!!!’
"You should've never crossed the road."
The way they just brought back an old childhood joke- KAHDISGSISHS
I’ve just finished a really bad week at work and then I’m told I’m a chicken.
Thanks for setting me for a great weekend dude 🤨🤣
i’m at summer camp rn but will come back and watch this later
edit: i’m back
Ok man see ya then
welcome back
Im back with new victims in mind
In Oregon?
return of the king
There is a brilliant content creator to be discovered every day on RUclips. Welcome to my feed Aperture.
I almost never click "like" on a video. But this video's ideas shocked and impressed me so much that I couldn't help but press that like button. I am incredibly impressed.
I was zoned out the entire video but proceeded to keep watching it because his voice was so soothing
Same, sometimes I'm watching and the my eyes start to go out of focus and i just start thinking about something unrelated with the calming voice and soothing music till he starts talking about the sponsor and i abruptly snap back to reality
@@SevenZeroEleven sameeeee lol 😁
Dude, I've been watching your videos since the beginning and they jsut make me feel safe and warm no matter the topic.. Thank you so much
Very deep lecture, love it. Great video
Great comment. Which brings us to the thought that we have free choice. Is that also the mind truly in control and freedom being an illusion
This video is enough food for thought to think about for a week till the next video drops.
you know what... I commented on one of his videos asking him to start the episode as "you are a duck" he probably didn't see it but to be honest, chicken is close enough so I am very pleased.
this. this comment made my dad even though it is a year old.
Not making up to a million before retirement is unfulfilled retirement.!! I'm 54 and my wife is 50 we are both retired with over $7 million in net worth and no debts. Currently living smart and frugal with our money. No longer blaming FED for our misfortunes. Saving and investing lifestyle in the crypto and forex market made it possible for us this early. even now, we earn weekly
The crypto market has been unfavorable for months and I keep losing my money selling off during dips, I'm very scared of holding right now. How do you guys still make so much
Yeah, the crypto market is highly profitable with an expert broker just like Expert Mrs Theresa Walton. I got recommended to her and since then my financial life has been a success.
Amazing 🥰 seeing others talking about the good works of Ma'am Theresa, I started my investment with $15,000, and a week later, it has grown to $55,000. This woman!! Absolute intellectual.
I'm a living testimony of the expert Mrs. Theresa Walton, she has been trading for me for years now
Her success story is everywhere💯
I'm at 0:59 but god daaaaaamn youre a good writer
6:36 edit: just realized you also made that paradox video, how am i not subscribed yet wtf. I found this video through searching too, was trying to find interesting cases of black swan events I haven't heard of
I don't know, kurzgesagt made a video on the danger of solar flares but they concluded that engineers already have some backup systems in place and people working there are aware of solar flares. Is that a false sense of security?
me: **looking at the title** wow i bet this is going to be amazing
aperture: you are a chicken
me: ok
This is amazing, It is so meaningful to me. Thank you so much
Aperture : you are a chicken
Me: *feeling guilty eating chicken while watching*
Thats why im watching his videos late at night, because of his calming voice
This man and his team always deliver great content.
Black swan has always been one of my fav books finally someone made a video on it
The chicken will trust humans again. One fell out of a chicken truck headed to the processing plant and my mom picked it up off the road. It went on to become a very loving pet for her. The saddest thing was the disabilities it had due to it being bred for meat production. It was hardly able to walk and had to have food put in a bowl before it so it could eat.
🥺
Maybe 🤔 it couldn't walk because it fell out of a moving Truck 🚛 🤣
Aperture: You are a chicken
Me: ok
"You are a chicken."
Me: *oink*
I clicked on this video because of pure curiosity and boredom, and it opened a new line of thought regarding the way I think about the starting point of a story I’m trying to create. The event/revelation, for all intents and purposes, is a black swan incident for my main character and for some reason I didn’t think it would change his outlook that drastically, but it does.
Interesting.
This was poetic, really. ❤
One of the most interesting topics covered on the channel, keep it up!
“you are a chicken” great intro while i’m eating CHICKEN tenders
Man, if you were just 2 weeks earlier... I would have had a solid crackdown on my essay about the black swan theory! Regardless, keep up the good work!
That was an amazing presentation. Thank you
"Extremistan and Mediocristan" A factory chicken which lives 1000 days of bliss really would be an outlier. I know that's not the point, but in the example our 'poor' chicken really was a special case for the farmer, since most of his pals were sent to the 'other' side of the farm by the 50th day, not the 1000th. My other reaction is that in our world of 'Extremistan', the predictable disasters we fail to prepare for aren't exclusively a sign of how poorly humanity intuitively understands probability. Overdue Earthquakes increase in probability every day, while our tendency is to become more complacent - sure. But the 'winners' of 'Extremistan' also constrain (lobby) governments and society from acting rationally to such threats.
ruclips.net/video/mga63G7-6D0/видео.html
Best explained by Captain America, a national hero: "Didn't see that one coming."
Beautifully shown and explained
"A Thousand Beautiful Days" sounds like the title to a sweeping romantic epic set in colonial times on a homestead, showing the struggles of multiple generations of a single poor family. The kind of thing that wins an Oscar, and you're like "dafuq is this?".
love your videos man :) i have a suggestion, you should make a video about the egg theory. it’s very interesting and not many people know of if
In San Antonio we have a haunted mansion called the black swan and it’s pretty cool
Damn I haven't been to SA in years. What's happening there right now?
@@tuwubah nothing too crazy, they’re starting to add 3 lanes to 1604 but other than that everything’s been okay
Comfortability makes ppl complacent against blacks swans while all wrapped up in what society sees as issues. Living in my truck has taught me that it's all perspective, even the worst events can be some of the most constructive ways to build character, life throws shit at you and you learn how to handle it making you exponentially wiser when you overcome whatever is taking a toll on your psychi. Zen is the antidote to bad black swans, it's not what happens to you, it's how you handle it that truly defines you.
I like how, he made a video earlier, questioning the existence of Free will, and then made a video on a theory that proves That the idea of *“free will doesn’t exist”* is false
This is one of those videos that got me furiously nodding throughout. And Taleb's book is awesome, too, including Fooled by Randomness.
Bruh I was actually so surprised you mentioned GME and AMC….. the biggest transformation of wealth in history is about to take place and Monday and Tuesday this week could have very well been the beginning, great video brother!
I read the title and immediately rushed to the comments to see if there were any mentions of GME. It took too long to find your comment 😭😭
0:01 I am a chicken
12:07 now I am a black swan
I mean look at Nietzche or people like Van Gough
They didn’t exactly fully succeed within their lifetimes, they get plenty of attention after the fact. I wouldn’t say you never hear of the great people who fail, but nobody is well enough aware of them. We need more connectivity from person to person nowadays to really understand the problems of the people. We need people to communicate, and properly, not phony mental health awareness, not false group think
We need real communication and understanding, along with insight towards each other’s inner workings and outer problems. Truthfully.
Walt Whitman was another
Agree with you 100%. So how we are going to achieve mass understanding on this? How current system or social media support this 💡?
Vincent van Gogh* 😀
"You are a Chicken."
~SAD BODYBUILDER NOISES~
Aperture: You are a Chicken
me before he even says anything else: Ba-KOK!!