S&P 500 at 10k by 2030 No Matter Interest Rates!
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- Опубликовано: 19 апр 2024
- There is a lot of talk about the market and interest rates. However, I think the major drivers of investment returns in the future will be shocks, be it financial, economic or other. Nothing works linearly and the solution to debt and issues will likely again be money printing.
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0% real return is worse than it sounds. The governament does not vare that the REAL value of your savings the same as before,.they still charge ypu a capital gains tax
Brilliant stuff Sven, thank you!
thanks
Keep investing in index and don't waste time to find the right horses... at least you will save your money from inflation.
I agree. That is the only common sense way which can fit 90% of us. Single stocks picking can work well only if you can put a lot of money at stake and you are extremly disciplined, otherwhise the risk of doing just like a gambler loosing your money is too high.
Which one? There is like 100 different indices. :)))) One can buy the index ingredients but without the expensive stuff. This ways you will always be OK over a long time!
Nahhh. Only for people who can't read a balance sheet is it a good idea.
The benefit of diversification declines after 10-12 companies. Buying an index means you have to buy the bad companies listed in the index too which will skew your returns down. It's called "diworsification"
Good explanation as always Sven. The current surge in inflation showed who benefited from it - companies with pricing power! Consumer goods (PG etc), monopoly industries (railroads etc) and insurance (seen your bills lately?). It won’t be smooth sailing all the time but this is what you want to own if we get more inflation. Of course BRK is invested in all of the above.
Should you be using log scale graphs? Why or why not?
Sven I'm touched 😊 Che emozione!!
Just for you!
Sven, why don’t you take the SPTR to compare with BRK?
TO DA MOON!!!! No, seriously, we better, because when businesses, markets, economy... don't go well, people suffer. So we maybe should demand politicians (and central banks) stop messing around with interest rates and just about anything and everything... before it's too late. Well, not should. MUST. Thank you, Sven!
thank you!
I bought Rubis too. I like it so far. THX Sven :)
Check also Dr Martens especially after the recent 30% drop
I am new to investing and my goal is to collect 300 pieces of VOO etf. I have bought 100 pieces with a lump sum for $400 each. I will try to buy each month as much as possible to reach 300 pcs. A market crash would be very nice. By the time I retire one pc of VOO will reach $5000.
Hey Sven,
All the ratios are at all time highs, but at the same time we are also living in a time where the tech companies have basically world wide power and people can invest automatically every month with indexes, on top of that printing money so yeah where the money can even go? Doesn’t justify the ratios considering these and more factors?
The buffet indicator needs to be taken with caution. It can rise just because a company decides to go public or public companies take some market share from private companies in the same segment. Its not directly tracking valuations
Hello Sven could we discuss China some day it looks cheap could it go lower isn’t that value bottoming out thanks for informative video ✌️ cheers
"investing is about being vaguely right in broad ranges and broad trends"
"The Vagaries of broad ranges and trends" that's a classic investing book
Rubis 50% up for me, also 9% dividend on my price :D
Check also Dr Martens, especially after the recent 30% drop.
Sven, when you say about zero return in 70s you do not take into account reinvesting of dividends. Right? I mean if we add to this calculation dividends and this dividends were comparatively high it could show another picture of real return. Am I right?
Those were not much higher! But yes, value did 10x
More money chasing fewer stocks will keep the pressure on the index
I committed a cardinal sin and sold my 401k index funds into high yield money market at S&P 5200. For weeks I had deep regret, but now I wonder if just keeping it there until we see a correction is the wisest approach? I have always fantasized about catching a reasonable top while interest rates were high until they eventually ease...
I did the same thing...
As we live through this decade we don’t see/feel when is the bottom. DCA throughout a decade while during an accumulation phase you won’t be heavily impacted by the dips as you’ll be buying all those dips. This is actually good news for those who are accumulating their portfolio during hard times
Hi Sven, do you have any update on the real estate outlook? Thank you!
yes, if rates stay up, RE will drop!!!
Would be interesting to get your opinion on Boeing - probably the most hated stock now. Current issues are real but Boeing has bigger moat than any other US large cap. The whole civilian aircraft building industry is effectively duopoly with Airbus which is fully booked till 2030 and demand for planes ever increasing, especially in developing world. No new competitors are coming into the market as the entry point is sky high and requires both financial and political intervention from a government of a major state.
In my opinion, given the moat, future demand for planes and, if things stay bad, intervention from US government, Boeing is an interesting stock to own long term.
Please, let us know what you think
It's a good time to increase investments in indexes and good stocks, and not to have much cash or bonds. Any correction is a buying opportunity.
Financial advice? :D
@@markus_bit. opinion
I’m earning 5.2% on 25k on my T212 account. Just waiting for a significant drop on the S&P 500 to start a position!
same here. However it's important to know that the 5.2% is not covered by financial compensation scheme in case of failure of money fins provider. It's not like a regular cash isa.
Hopefully you know that it is actually quite a dangerous thing to do to sit out and wait for the stockmarked to crash. You might have to wait for a very long time, and when it does crash it might never go as far low as it is today. It's basically impossible to know whether an index is going to crash to a lower evalutation than the present, even if the market is super overvalued.
The best thing to do IMO is find some productive asset that you are comfortable with investing it at present prices. For example, chinese stocks are very cheap right now, and many renewable energy companies are also very cheap. Really if you just go beyond the S&P it's not that bad.
@theWebWizrd it's equally dangerous to enter a market that might be at the end of the run for many years.
@@stex83the risk is worse when you wait but you are risking paying even more later. When you buy now you’re only risking you could have got in lower
No it isn't equally as dangerous, you should be investing in the SP500 for a min of a decade, most money is lost not in the market, you will miss returns, try and time something and completely mess it up, but good luck to you.
GOOD content! My spouse and I are adding a variety of stocks/ETF to my present holdings for the long term, We've set aside $250k to start following inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, I believe it is a good time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know means of actualizing short term profit.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
i agree with you. I couldn't have done it alone without an advisor
@@benjaminsmith3469 i agree with you. I couldn't have done it alone without an advisor
@@ChristopherHoward-kf7yk Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your adviser
Okay I need help for you guys I invested a large amount like 25k in the s&p500 in march at first I had like 2% retuns but now I’m down like 4% already and it seems that the s&p is going down, should I take out my money wait for it to drop more and then reinvest or let it sit there because I invested and it was like at 5100$ pretty much, did I make a huge mistake I’m juste new to this
It depends on the time horizon of your investments. You should invest in SP500 only money which you are not going to need in the short run.
Just stay the course and keep buying. Markets always pull back to push higher and higher. It is not a straight line.
5:38 is it total return?
No
US inflation has been 2% excluding shelter for months, IRs shouldn't be this high now, let alone even higher
I’m already running a company with 1/3 the workforce as last year people who don’t see ai deflation are blind
Very interesting
One may lose their mind somewhere between research and the execution of a strategy. Some people seem able to look at a compound annual growth rate, maximum draw down, sharpe ratios, and all of the other ratios and sketch a forecast of their future returns. I’m not so convinced. If you think predicting a day of returns is hard, imagine thinking you know in advance the daily returns needed to calculate compounding for the next several years.
Ok, I thought about this a bit more. This is probably why portfolio managers spend time tracking, tracking, tracking, against measures and benchmarks to see if they will meet or exceed the forecasted returns. Not easy if you’re just one person, though.
Yeah, fixed income must be a heck of a lot easier. Why am I replying to myself? Who cares? It’s still engagement.
If you count like you, linearly, yes it will hit 10.000, but markets are not that simple...., 2000 is more likely because of it's pattern. And inflation/ interrest rates belongs to economics, markets don't deal with that😉
You know it brate.
Every ten years everything doubles anyway right 🎉🎉😅
The biggest effect of higher rates is the rich get much richer. They would spend more. If you have millions in your account and you are getting 8% return on your cash. Risk free. All money would come out of the stock market and just gain 8% risk free. I believe that the stock market returns 7% per year. Why take the risk if you would get less. Right now pensions are taking their money out of the market to earn money on money market accounts.
Also P/E ratio are higher because companies margins are much higher than they were in the past.
Says Sven who also said Alibaba should now be >300USD ;)
Well, it should be.
@@decus9544you can't believe their Financials or the ccp
That's the problem...value trap
Same video again..! Don’t you get tired of making them? Love ya Sven, but I think I’ve seen enough.
Simply don’t have to watch. Up to you if you want to see new charts
Yo
Before start. You were right. S&P reach 5,000 as you predicted