China’s Fundamental Economic Problem
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- Опубликовано: 5 ноя 2023
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Can you make a video on how people are elected in china. If the elders control everything how did they get into power and how do people maintain there position.
why didn't the cop just give out a set sum of money to each person in 2009?
You do excellent work. Keep fighting the good fight.
Unfortunately I already pay for a lot subscriptions at Canadian rates man.
That last point - about China not going anywhere - is important. We're already seeing the salesmen, like Zeihan, and doomsayers, like Business Basics (who seemingly predicts every country is going to collapse lol!), circling like vultures trying to make a quick buck by selling people what they want to hear. They've already been wrong before, but that doesn't stop them from selling their narrative. And their audience, eager to feed their egos, eats it right up. Fortunately Polymatter is more measured in their videos.
Not mentioned: the easiest way to raise the rate of consumption is to raise wages, especially for its approximately 200 million factory workers. The reason this isn't possible: 1) exports are declining 2) China produces products that are dependent upon a low price structure. In other words, they compete with other low wage manufacturing countries.
All that profit got squirreled away by corruption, after getting consumed by state security and propaganda programs. Sadly the lack of paycheck and human capital investment leaves the average Chinese subject poor and uncompetitive.
Compounding it even further, social spending especially on a safety net can also spur growth by lowering the incentive to save. Unfortunately, with local government debt mounting social programs are being cut rather than expanded making people save even more as they worry about benefits falling away in the future.
Honestly in China nobody ever hoped that retirement would be enough. That’s why we train our kids like no tomorrow. But then good luck caring for 2 parents, 4 grandparents and maybe another child of yours. And then they ask why we don’t spend money 😕
and we are asked to have more kids!@@gianniwu6564
Maybe, but what they're actually going to do is roll out a Digital Yuan and force people to spend, or lose it.
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
Very true! I've been able to scale from $50K to $189k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
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I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
One of my goals is to employ the service of one this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
Finding financial advisors like Colleen Janie Towe who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
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As a native chinese, I agree with most of contents here. Thanks for the detailed investigation.
China is expanding its infrastructure mainly in two directions:
1. building housings, roads and railways like what it's been doing in the past two decades. Many thing has proved that these kinds of infrastructure has reached a saturation.
2. building large innovative infrastructures like molten salt power plants and nuclear power plants. These constructions make more sense to me as it's still in need in the long term. However the short-term return of investment is questionable.
On your (2) you have to consider that sooner or later you will be forced to make that investment. Better do it early and develop that industry than wait till it is too late. A government should mostly make long term investments. The private sector (even the Chinese one) is more than enough to tackle short term projects.
Specifically I admire China's alternative use of nuclear energy like providing industrial heat or steam to houses (for heating) or to industries. The Qinshan plant in Zhejiang province provides industrial heat equivalent to 288,000 gigajoules annually. The Zhejiang Haiyan Nuclear Energy Heating Demonstration Project utilises the remaining thermal power from the Qinshan plant in winter to provide heating to public facilities, residential communities and industrial parks in Haiyan County without affecting the original power generation and safety performance of the reactors. This is equivalent to saving about 10,000 tonnes of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 24,000 tonnes.
The Haiyang plant in Shandong province officially started providing district heat to the surrounding area. A trial of the project - the country's first commercial nuclear heating project - was carried out the previous winter, with the plant's two AP1000 reactors providing heat to 700,000 square metres of housing, including the plant's dormitory and some local residents.
Work started in May 2022 on a project at the Tianwan plant in Jiangsu province to supply steam to a nearby petrochemical plant. Due for completion at the end of 2023, it will be China's first industrial-use nuclear energy steam supply project. In the project, steam will be extracted from the secondary circuits of units 3 and 4 of the Tianwan plant. After passing through multi-stage heat exchange, the heat will be transported via an insulated above-ground pipeline to the Lianyungang Petrochemical Industrial Base for industrial production and utilisation. The facility is expected to supply 4.8 million tonnes of steam annually, which will reduce the burning of standard coal by 400,000 tonnes per year, and the equivalent emission reduction of 1.07 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, 184 tonnes of sulphur dioxide and 263 tonnes of nitrogen oxides.
Maybe the Chinese government should give a break to rail roads and similar infrastructure and focus more on energy projects. I expect with those demonstration projects providing good feedback, there will be more investment.
@@alexandervlaescu9901 I agree with you. Actually one key factor of the success of Chinese government is that it could make many long-term investments and hold the policy consistancy for several years as there is no government switching every 4 or 5 years. I just hope it can realize this and stick to the second path also in this hard time.
At the end of the day, innovation is the main source of economic sustainability and is 100% worth investing inspite of the risk of no short-term investment return.
@@alexandervlaescu9901 Btw I'm shocked by the data you listed about chinese power plant projects. It's really amazing!
How can you use youtube if you are in china? I thought basically all western internet sites are censored there and VPNs get you 10 years in jail. Or was that fake news?
Real estate and stock markets are the real economic bubbles, and money is leaving China at any time. The real economy of manufacturing industry is the real economy of people's livelihood.
Japan's decline proved that real estate was a junk economy.
China is upgrading its industries from electrical appliances to automobile manufacturing, maritime and aviation manufacturing. Now China is the world's largest exporter of ships and cars.
China is moving into AI, semiconductors and green energy. It is normal for real estate to decline after saturation, and no one wants to invest in this junk.
The president Xi has said that houses are for living in, not for trading.
I remember when Japan's economy was unstoppable and it's been stagnant for decades. This might be the beginning of China's Lost Decade.
Haha, yup. Now the Yen is falling so much that BOJ is selling off its US treasury bonds... wait...
Decades
Its still a very rich country with third largest GDP, so the whole stagnant theory I would say is really out of proportion
@@user-ll7lf9pg1t third largest GDP but per-capita is not that high, so a lot of unrealized potential
@@user-ll7lf9pg1t I mean its rich, but still stagnant.
I hate it when juicy subject matter is kept behind a paywall so I simply googled why China kept the one-child policy for so long until it's too late for its reversal and it's because:
- Changes to phase out the policy have been delayed because of leaders who have made population control part of their political legitimacy and a bureaucracy that has grown increasingly entrenched in the course of policy enforcement.
- In addition, the Chinese public has been thoroughly indoctrinated by the Malthusian fear of unchecked population growth and by a social discourse that has erroneously blamed population growth for virtually all of the country’s social and economic problems.
Basically incompetent govt bureaucracy and political insecurity to new policy changes and the Chinese buying in their own propaganda. It doesn't help that massive forced urbanization are making childless marriage the more preferred choice.
Thanks for confirming my hunch
Holy based, Batman! Thank you :)
One thing to note about the policy is that it wasn't just China that bought into the idea - overpopulation was what people feared for most of the last century. Efforts to curb population growth, especially in China and India, were popular even in the west at the time, even if China's implementation of it was autocratic. India even briefly tried forced sterilization in the 90s. The recent turn towards worrying more about declining birth rates and especially the sagacious 'well ofc it was a bad idea' from some is a textbook case of historical blindness. Back when the One Child Policy was first introduced its aim was hailed, even if its method was distasteful.
Another reason I thought of is social control. Parents will not risk having their only child exposed to anti government thoughts for fear of ending family bloodlines. But this creates a problem for military recruitment.
Is that it? You didn't have to look this up to guess that.
People try to predict the economy not realizing it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?
Sure, investing is plain-sailing with the aid of an invt-specialist, thus I've always delegated my excesses ever since the rona-outbreak in January 2020 using a shrewd advisor, and my investments have compounded by at least 300%, summing up $820k ROI as of today.
@@Pamela.jess.245 That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
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@Edna825: As a matter of fact the chinese economy is a capitalistic one, it only used to be a planned economy, just ask Wikipedia ...
In recent months, the world has faced significant challenges, encompassing economic adversities, widespread job losses, market instabilities, conflicts in diverse regions, and financial hardships. The prevailing situation might seem overwhelmingly negative. How can one navigate these difficult times and ensure financial stability?
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In times of global adversity, focus on essential needs, explore new income avenues, and build a strong support network. Embrace adaptability, stay informed about available resources, and invest in personal growth. Remember, resilience and community can help navigate these challenging times and pave the way for a stable future.
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My favorite part was- “whatever this is”
What was it though?
@@Karlach_
A building made to store XI's massive/fragile ego.
@@jeckjeck3119 You're going to cry about any Chinese building and leader for not obeying your massive/fragile ego.
@@Karlach_ A building made to store XI’s Honey.
LOL true
Your take is probably the best case scenario for China. If Yi Fuxian's demographic data are correct, China's population has been shrinking for 5 years and has even fewer young people than thought. If the Brookings Institute's economic data are correct, the Chinese economy never grew as fast as claimed. If only one is correct, China is in for a world of hurt. If both are, it's facing an utter catastrophe.
Worse. Both are true, AND their growth was funded by black water debt (private lending, loan sharking). Chinas INTERNAL debt is 120T us dollars. When they stop paying their loans to each other, and not just stop paying everyone else, their giant buildings won't even be worth what your house here cost. China is agoraphobic. No foreigners, no one WANTS to speak Chinese outside of China. Ie: no one can move to China, increase demand, prop up any sector. And you forgot to mention, china isn't even in top 10 cheapest manufacturing places any more. And their whole model is based on being low profit, high volume manufacturers. They are out of money, out of kids, out of time, out of friends, out of investments, and the mother of all property collapses is about to begin. In 30 years, china will have half as many people, half will be too old to work, split into 4+ countries, be poorer per capital than North Korea. This is their end.
This isn't the 'best case scenario', it's the average mainstream scenario. It's the predictions of collapse that're the outliers. No major international economic institution is predicting a total collapse, only TV and internet pundits are. The UN predicts their population to fall to about 800 million by 2100. That's still over twice the size of America. And be it the IMF or WB or what have you, all agree that China even now is still growing, just much slower than it has in the last 40 years.
Split the difference between this and Peter zeihan and you're there...
China is overpopulated. Even with one of the biggest territories on earth it can't achieve food or energy sufficiency. Mao advocated birthing as many as possible to fight a world war 3 that never came and now we have 800 million more people than we can support. We needed a 3 child policy in tge 50's and 60's: one child was too little too late.
Yours is a copeful beyond-worst case scenario for China. China exports more than the EU, therefore even by reliable internationally data, it's quite a competitive and huge economy.
This video covers some pretty deep and complicated topics about world events. While I may not agree with everything said, it's always good to talk and think about these things. As an enthusiast In real estate, it's important to know what's happening globally to make smart choices.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Well, I suggest you make a diversification plan because it's been harder to build a good portfolio that stays afloat since COVID. Personally, I garner knowledge from a brokerage Adviser whom I work with, and I've actually made over $350K with their help since February. Very effective defensive strategies are used to protect my portfolio and make profits despite the ups and downs.
@@PhilipDunk I find this intriguing. Could you please provide me with the means to get in touch with your Adviser? I am concerned about my dwindling portfolio.
Other suggestions for similar great videos/channels?
China built more houses than its population can live, according to a report I read, which is one reason why houses are not selling. There are not enough demands for them fundamentally.
@6:13 That bridge is GORGEOUS. I Love modern architecture. Thank you for this. I have had Nebula for a long time and do not watch it enough. I will stop by and watch your series on China and others.
Yeah! Gorgeous!
You go first
4:46 Westerners, especially Americans, forget that this kind of rapid development around transit isn’t unique, many lines on the NYC Subway and London Underground were built with nothing around but fields and farmland, which were rapidly replaced by dense urban neighborhoods.
There’s a difference between a mile or two and 20-40 miles
@@captiannemo1587there’s also a difference in having your metro infrastructure get built in the early 20th century (and essentially inventing the technology) as opposed to the late 20th century when your GDP is tiny but you’re getting massive outside funding and the technology is already there.
It seems none Westerners, especially none Americans, like to make ignorant racist statements and think they are smart
@bozzie_ yet the massive funding from the outside ain't there. China is literally begging internatiknal cpaital to flow jnto china. There's a reason they despise the Fed so much and keep repeatign right wing talking points because it's in their best interest to press knterest rates down
@@xunqianbaidu6917 The overall population isn't, the urban population still is. China still has hundreds of millions of people in its rural areas who're moving to urban China. This was also true of the west btw - the largest demographic shift was the emptying out of the countryside towards the cities.
There is one element to the one child policy being held for so long, the party’s belief they can do anything. The policy has created generational changes in outlook, cultural “knowledge ” compounded with the effects of modernity (costs to raise a kid, time to raise them).
They can’t alter social change to larger familes, not unless people move back to their villages.
The one child policy should never have been implemented. The tfr would have naturally gone done to between 2.1 to 2.5 naturally on its own. Like Kazakhstan basically.
@@JKTProductionzIncNCo
Thank god the British made CCP commit that mistake, or they would grow too powerful;)
@@jeckjeck3119what a worse reason of joy!
@@JKTProductionzIncNCotoday, China’s population is at 1.4 billion people. They have to import food and energy because they don’t have enough to sustain their current population as it is and unemployment is very high. Now can you imagine what it would look like if they never had a one child policy resulting in a Chinese population at 4 billion or higher? The world would criticize China for the mass starvation, rolling blackouts, massive crime, and unemployment. When it comes to western propaganda, there is nothing China can do that would be seen in a positive light.
I remember years ago when Japan was at it peak, some Japanese person who I can't remember, saying, what has happened to Britain, (deindustrialised, industries stolen, lack of investment, stagnant growth ) will not happen to Japan, it did and is still happening, and so the Chinese thought that what happened to Japan will not happen to us, it is and worse, worse property speculation and over-investment, worse debt, so going by the experience of Japan one can only assume that the beginning of the stagnation of China has begun.
china holds a huge workforce for global market capture, china hold worlds largest reserves of minerals, china also holds spies to fkk with other nations, they have Africa in hand to get missing minerals, china has advanced military matching USA, china's state of art authoritarian capitalism is working perfectly for rapid growth. China will recover. There is simply no stopping it. You can reduce the growth and make the it grow slow but they will grow inevitably. The world simply is shifting to how it used to be when there was no war, money is flowing towards countries with actual value. As long as there is capitalism in presence of globalization with free trade agreements, the world order will always gravitate towards the most resourceful nation. Btw Im an Indian, not Chinese .
It's not going to be as serious as people think. China won't stagnate for centuries, but they won't overtake the US either. Trajectories aren't fixed. Even with long term things like demographics.
@@J_X999 china will more or less overtake the US because the fundamentals for growth in the US are even worse. An economy that is wholly dependent on abusing its status as the global reserve currency... And is dead set on scaring people away from holding US dollars by weaponising it. If the US ever lost its reserve currency status, it would be argentina with nukes.
Its aprecciated that you have sources in the description.
Of course, the problem with consumption is that Companies don't pay their workers enough to allow consumption to rise. Between an insecure safety net and rocky employment levels and low pay, you just can't count on consumption.
China relied on the consumption of the West to fuel their growth on the cheap. Beijing wrongly believed that other people's wallets would stay open for the PRC indefinitely no matter what they did.
Do you know WHY low cost manufacturing is moving out of China? Cos Chinese wages have risen too high. The Chinese earn more than Mexico, hence why Mexico is now building more low cost factories (with a lot of that investment coming from Chinese companies btw). So no, they literally are paying people more. Not as much as an American earns, but they don't have American prices in China either.
And also healthcare costs just too much. People just saves a lot in case of getting some serious illness.
@@gaius_octavius Actually Chinese manufacturing wages are closer to $6.50 per day, vs less than $5 per day for Mexican workers. Which is why you are seeing Mexican manufacturing pick up. Vietnam and India also have lower wages than China.
@@dancahill9585exactly genius he is comparing china to Portugal greeces of the world not mexico
South korea has a birth rate of 0.84 so china does not have the lowest in the world
Yeah but South Korea is a loyal client state so the west won't mention that.
Just like Japan is a loyal client state so western rabble have no idea Japan has been riding crazy debt to GDP ratios since before covid. Without issue.
It's almost like these videos just want the western rabble to have a negative view of China.
Shanghai and Beijing are down to 0.7 so it's a close race to the bottom here. By definition these are anti-life cultures/structures playing out.
@@jasonpreston4976 Seol has birthrate of 0.59 so still Korea leads
China has 1.4 billion people and neoliberal goons think China needs to have more babies.
@@jasonpreston4976 What do you mean by anti-life specifically? Like to be honest if you mean a culture that does not reward you for having children other than emotional/internal reasons then yes but that has been the case for most of the world that is post-agricultural. The last time you got like practical benefit for having children that wasn't emotional/internal was during the agricultural era where having kids meant more workers for your farm... Im not saying having kids isnt valid anymore but to have kids now you have to do it for non selfish objectively practical reasons and in turn less people are having them...
I know there is some countries where people have alot of kids but it tends to happen for religious or socio-economic (lack of access to protection and stuff) reasons...
I'm a big fan of Michael Pettis so it's cool to see some of his argument in this video. If you haven't read his recent book, Trade Wars Are Class Wars (co authored by Matthew Klein), I'd highly recommend it.
Very thoroughly researched and nicely created 👏🏻👏🏻
Gold bars are the standard go-to way in China to avoid accountability. Many high enough value bribes are paid in gold bars, criminal gangs also supposedly use them to trade between themselves, etc. Not sure why exactly,
Why gold bars (along with everything else from rice to cars) are used as a "bonus" when buying the property is that the value has dropped dramatically but the govenment is prohibiting sale at the actual marker price resulting in zero sales. Offering something (typically free car parking spots or similar) is an attempt to skirt that law. Offering gold bars straight up is an extremely brazen attempt at that, the company doing so clearly has support in high level officials who are willing to cover this.
Why bribe with gold bars? Because there's no traceability, no bank paper trails, no risk of account being frozen.
Had a friend who got a job straight out of law school as a lawyer in Beijing, same. Or USD.
Are the gold bars even made of gold also when they sell these gold bars do they exchange it for cash for something else?
@@NaviRyando you think why no Chinese answer those stupid question gold baier
The video got it wrong on "bridges to nowhere" in Guizhou because that province is very mountainous and not very accessible so bridges are necessary for traveling as paved roads are not practical on such terrain. These bridges didn't exist 10 years ago and more are needed to connect the province with other provinces.
But what economic potential do those regions have?
@@jeckjeck3119 ask Apple,, their cloud servers are in caves in Guizhou
@@jeckjeck3119 If you are inside a locked room and someone tries to open it. Will you ask, "but what potential does that guy have?"
@@meispig21990
Those places are far from a locked room:/ Otherwise China would not be controlling them. If I built a billion dollar bridge to a little mountain village, than I F-ed up.
@@jeckjeck3119 If you think a place with 39 million people is a small village, then I don’t know what your hometown is. It’s easy for the government to control there, although it’s not easy to get into the mountains, but it’s no problem for a few days or even weeks, enough to send people to manage. But such a travel difficulty is very disadvantageous for the development of 39 million people, they are hard to get out, and also hard to trade with outsiders, this is also why that area is one of the poorest areas in China, now the government only spent a few billion to open up the whole mountain area, so that the people inside can freely enter and exit in a day or even a few hours, this is what you call “F-ed up”?
The core problem is that of our notions of economic prosperity. GDP cannot grow indefinitely, no matter what we do, unless consumption also grows indefinitely. I'd argue this is not a China-specific problem, but a global one. Imagine a car ... initially, it needs to accelerate, but at some point, it will be traveling at a good speed, and acceleration cannot continue. We need to stop looking at GDP growth rate, and simply look at GDP.
This is something i've been trying to communicate my entire life.. the framing of infinite growth as necessary for prosperity. Economic growth invariably requires the extraction of resources from the environments around it simply cannot be made sustainable anywhere. Especially given climate change, economies can't continue planning as if growth's a given. I wish there was a more intersectional approach to videos like this because that doesn't even seem to be a consideration here.
It is called economic cycles. The West is just forgot that China makes no exception. I bet looking at China economy in 5 years. Doomsayers in the West would be wrong again. 😊
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function”
-Professor Albert Allen Bartlett
@@zerarch77 Since he teaches us that, now a lot of people know about that. Current China's GDP is about 5% even in a downturn. Based on rule of 72, at that rate China GDP will double in 14 years. Which is huge if you look at the current size.
To some degree yes but china is going through this cycle at super speed since they have invested at super speed they could collapse at super speed.
According to some experts, the United States and other regions of Europe may have a recession in 2024. Because China and emerging countries frequently grow faster than more developed economies, a global recession, which is defined as a decline in annual global per capita GDP, is more uncommon. Fundamentally, if economic growth lags behind population growth, the global economy is said to be in a recession.
My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.
I totally agree, it's been three years and counting, and I've made over 1.7 million by simply following a coach's advice. I was on the sidelines for a while watching, trying to determine the best time to get in, before I came across a coach, recommended by my wife. I was reluctant at first but I went ahead and contacted the coach. As a small reward for my consistency, I went on a trip to the Bahamas in the late summer.
How can I get in touch with your adviser? because I'm looking for a more successful way to invest my savings?
I die inside when you measure things in China in feet.
You and me both
Fun fact: United States is the only country in the world continues to use Imperial units like feet / fahrenheit / lbs. Even the British who invented those now use international units for measurement
May I recommend to use metric system in audio and show body-parts system on screen 😅. I live in the US and understand both of them. However after 300ft, imperial system loses its meaning because there is no easy conversion to miles.
Bound feet, lol
@@NathanDrake0410Liberia and Myanmar also use the imperial system
The most interesting challenge is on the youth, imo.
The most draconian covid policies caused many top firms to move manufacturing to other countries like India, resulting in less jobs for fresh graduates.
The first few batches of graduates are finding themselves in situations where there aren't enough meaningful jobs like they were conditioned to believe since childhood, despite working their entire lives to score high on the GaoKao and earn a uni degree, a situation that's probably only gonna get worse.
Real estate is still too damn expensive for any aspiring young person or couple.
100 agree
Don't know where you live. China's home ownership is over 90%. The highest in the world. Government is transforming the model that developed countries using, which real estate holds a high percentage of GDP. China wants affordable homes and avoid too much relying GDP on real estate. The transformation takes time.
@@cinpeace353Ownership but half of them based on mortgage.
@@user-dr8eh4zo3t You think places in developed countries all paid off? Of course there are mortgage in China, same in other countries. If interest rate in North America not going down in next year, we expect a lot of people may not be able to pay their mortgage in Canada.
@@user-dr8eh4zo3t Just guessing can't make an argument.
Also tack on the growing competition from other growing countries with cheap labor (India, Mexico, etc.) and the economic situation could be more dire than previously outlined. If majority manufacturing jobs leave Chinese markets for one of these other budding manufacturing markets the economic crash will send china into a depression.
11:05 I think culture also plays a significant role in spending habits and consumption
I think that one of the biggest problems about China's economy is there are almost NO tourists. The only people who go to China are people returning from abroad, or people going for business trips. The average foreigner can NOT get around or do anything. credit cards are often not accepted, cash is often not accepted. You must pay through apps, many of which need to paired with a local phone number. Call a taxi? good luck with that. rent a car to drive? no, you need a local license to drive. So China is relying on itself to move the needle, when in fact it needs more money from outside to come in. And honestly, it is incredibly stressful to go there not knowing if you can pay for anything.
Right, it's pretty much impossible to do anything without a Chinese SIM, a Chinese bank account, and a WeChat account, or a friend/agent who does everything on your behalf. It's by far the least tourist friendly country that isn't under international sanctions.
I think China actively discourages foreign tourism, to limit its citizens' exposure to foreign influence.
@@doujinflip
Why would a country of over a billion people need tourists from other countries? China is a manufacturing economy, not a service economy and it's the countries with service economies that need tourists.
Tourism is a capricious and unreliable industry anyway. Countries that heavily rely on their tourism sector for their economy are one bad event or news story away from ruin. For tiny island nations like the Maldives, they have little choice. But were I the leader of any country, I'd make it a priority to shift my economy away from tourism reliance asap. Think of tourism like crypto investment - only do it with your spare gambling money and nothing more. Never have your tourism sector as the main basis of your earnings.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn Tourism is one of the best ways to get foreign deposit directly to small business owners. Its not like tourism will ever be China's number one economic sector anyway. Good tourism can also induce a lot of foreign investments into the country. FYI tourism is nothing like crypto lmfao. Tourism is steady inflow of cash.
Interesting documentation, an insightful contribution to discussion. Could you kindly share the sources you retrieved your data from?
If anybody could consider other videos on the same topic well appreciated :)
Really well done!
The bubble makes sense somehow until it bursts.
Eventually China must pay for maintenance, on all of these projects.
Yep. Depreciation gets us all.
Considering the quality of their builds (especially the newer ones), those bills are going to come as a shock on their dwindling budgets.
@@doujinflip The US estimates a third of their infrastructure is in dire need of repair. Meanwhile all China's infrastructure is new. As for your racist claims as to their quality, considering that most of the world is happy to invite the Chinese to build their infrastructure, that says a lot...
@@ArawnOfAnnwn Most of the third world invite the chinese to build their infrastructure*. And racist, really? He isn't saying anything crazy, chinese construction and the quality of their materials are know for being dubious at best lol
@@brunookami8968That's reputational speculation. The Chinese build plenty of high quality infrastructure.
Thank you for making these - shifting to Nebula to finish the series, the content you make there is incredible
Definitely I like how he breaks everything down to a level most people can understand.
Excellent analysis.
This is really good case study for india To learn and act accordingly in future
I love your series on China. Thanks
Just had my holiday in China, In a city of five million people. There is a lot of room for infrastructures. For example, there’re only two metro lines and in Prague, a city of only 1 million people, there are three. Not enough hospitals, clinics, housing and list goes on. What China needs now is to build things where they are actually needed.
What someone made an observation and they actually said something that makes sense.
The problem with asian countries is the corrupt politicians and bureaucrats setting guidelines for land make it insanely costly In places where people already live making outskirts only feasible option for new infra to come up, westerners complaining over nimby issues never seen things like this, it's 10x 100x worse in terms of cost and distance even with cramed buildings
Of all the places you could have went you chose to spend money in a communist country that’s actively hostile towards democracy 🤔
UK also have very corrupt and morally bankrupt politicans. But they hide behind loopholes, PPE scandal, revolving door jobs to defense contractors or merchant banks, worthless lordships, hidden profits offshored, non-transparent bidding process, laws with loopholes Grenfell cladding and lease reform etc...
Hospitals with what doctors? Any large building can be a hospital, but that won't make doctors appear:/
Nice job on this video.
Seeing how glorious the growth was with my experience in childhood and seeing how it's pretty much ruining the establishment and going backwards in the recent years makes me sad. The difference between the rich and poor are becoming more ridiculous everyday. With all the economic growth on record, the minimum salary hasn't grown much. In fact if you take inflation to account (which is crazy high btw), most people earn "less" technically despite economy becomes stronger. Which ultimately result in younger generations not wanting to have kids - they simply can't afford it, or it's not worth to give birth just to live poorer themselves and also to see how the kids are going to suffer even more.
Even in America productivity keeps rising but wages don't follow.
Which country are you talking about? China's inflation rate is less than 2%. 2% is considered a low interest in world standards.
Be patient, China is only got out of COVID less than a year. There are economic cycles in every country. Even China is strong, there are no exception. Don't pay too much attention to Western media estimates, they have never been correct. If they are my investment advisor, I would have fired them decades ago.
I don't think that is the problem. I think a lot of people just don't want kids because they want to enjoy live. Kids were always a insurance for retirement for a lot of people. Now, the country takes care of you. Also, tbh, dating life changed so much. It is hard to put kids into world where the possibility of splitting up is high. You put yourself into a very high risk. There are a lot of other factors. If you think about it, back then it was much riskier to have kids. You might die at birth. You might not be able to feed them. They might get sick or whatever. Nowadays you can even have a kid as a single mother and raise it properly without the kid ever having hunger or anything because the countries have huge support systems.
Thus the “Common Prosperity” push by the Central Government
China still has a few hundred million poorer Rural Chinese still expected to move to the cities
And join the rest like you
Not going to happen if developers keep building higher end homes and not enough affordable housing
Disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society and they will be the ones most likely to act out in protest China has been trying to tap the breaks on the real estate bubble since 2010. I know because I dumped my Chinese real estate ETFs in 2011
I would argue even the US/China trade war was over China closing off its economy
Yes China could open up its economy make many in China and the world even richer… but that would only widen the gulf between the rich and the poor in China
When in doubt go off of what the 1% investment bankers know
👇
Project Syndicate
The value of global China
July 23, 2019 | Article
By
Jeongmin Seong
and
Jonathan Woetzel
China faces important questions about whether and to what extent it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world, write Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong in Project Syndicate.
In any case, China and the world face important questions about the trajectory of their mutual engagement. At stake, according to our simulation, may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value - or 15-26% of world GDP - by 2040
McKinsey
Standard Keynesian economics, drop interest rates, print money, government spending!
that would cause serious downward pressure on the currency and could cause a severe loss of GDP just from exchange rates falling.
I found it weird that you mentioned that the Chinese were travelling domestically more. While it does show that people are spending less in general, encouraging domestic travel is exactly what you want if you want your consumption figures to go up.
Maybe a better way would be jsut to say that foriegn travel was declining so that the point doesn't get confused
Point is that China are spending less on big ticket items 💷 in this case, big ticket items are international vacations while a domestic trip is a smaller purchase 🏦
@@PM2024- Less international travel means Chinese contributed less to world economy. But more domestic travel is benefit more the China's economy.
@@John-cl2kr not really, chinas domestic travel data did not increase this year, but decreased.
@@Craigsinglee go search data!You're a liar！
If you include social benefits in kind (from gov) then the actual consumption rate is around global average of 55% - still bad, but not catastrophically so.
I may belive you if I were not really living in China.
我发现youtube全是一帮空谈注意经验主义
Excellent video essay as usual. I wonder if Nebula will have a sale this November. Do they have sales?
This is a objective video even I as Chinese have to admit what you mentioned is actually felt for people in China.
it would be ignorant to pretend this isnt real, no economy can sustain infinite growth
Decreasing returns on investment and low GINI index (decreasing) decreasing MPC, further decreasing the multiplier as well relative to PAE.
Bruh, who said Chinese exports are dropping? It literally went from $2T in 2012 to $2.6T in 2020 to $3.6T in 2022. Saying its declining as a percentage of total GDP is different from saying export is declining.
PolyMatter, can you please make a video on Malaysia's ethnic-based identity politics and political parties, as well as their impacts on Malaysian politics and society. Thank you very much.
That depends if it relates to China or not
@@dikathemas6713the second largest ethnic group are Chinese Malaysians and there have been massacres in the past. Politicians also frequently tell ethnic Chinese citizens of Malaysia that they are not welcome and should go back to China even though they've been in the region for 3-8 generations.i can see many ways it relates to China
Well, you need not look further than the writings of Thomas Sowell. Affirmative action used as a policy will lead to tragedy.
They're probably going to say how great Malaysia is except for any relations with China.
Malaysia too small. Polymatter wont look into it
Hey, this is a great video. I was curious if there were any citable references that you are open to sharing?
Haha, so this video is just the usual anti-China propaganda just like I thought, with no sources to back it up?
I would love to see a comparison of this material to the TVA, CCC, WPA, etc projects of the 1930s plus their follow-ons into the 80s, in the USA.
If it had subtitles in Portuguese I would definitely subscribe
China was stereotyped as being rich for thousands of years, but that's simply not true. Like everywhere else, China has had dizzying highs and terrifying lows, often for centuries on end. The fall of the Han, the Yuan after Kublai Khan died, the century of Humiliation, even the later years of the Song and Tang saw dark times, as did the several times China broke into pieces in the pre-modern era.
So just like everybody else then?
@@jamesgarner327 Exactly. They're not special. Numerous, but not special.
@@Nonamearisto I mean, no one is, I listen to the news in my country and they make it sound like the world is uniting against the west, when the truth is they've just cought up with us, there is no unity, they've just become powerfull enough to f... us off when it's in their interrests.
The fantasies of a rich China, India, or Africa are legends, rooted in their inferiority complex.
@@NonamearistoThe special thing about China was its tendency to coalesce into a unity. Europe never saw a second Rome and today they're dozens of nations. The Qin was resurrected in the Han, Jin, Sui, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, Qing, ROC, and PRC. It's the closest thing to a civilization-state in the world.
Hi. I love your content so much, looking forward to it. I just have a humble request, please consider also using SI Metric units for your non-USA audience (even just in subtitles). Otherwise, keep up the good work
There are two types of countries in the World. Those that use metric system and those that went to the moon.
Nasa uses SI units
@@farzana6676 you do realise NASA (and the US Federal Govt) uses SI Metrics Units, right (source; www.nist.gov/pml/owm/metrication-law#:~:text=Although%20many%20believe%20the%20United,Metric%20Conversion%20Act%20of%201975%20.)
China: something looks bad
Also china: Stops recording data like a boss
This isn't just China also explains what's happening in Europe.
It might be difficult for them to increase consumption without better safety nets. Despite being "socialist", people usually have to fend for themselves to support their education, healthcare, child care, retirement and all those things. This requires financial reserves, so the system incentivizes saving rather than spending. Somehow the leadership needs to assure their population that spending money does not pose a risk to ones well being and future.
Great video, as usually just the imperial units hurt.
The gold bar offering is due to the Chinese government mandating price levels that are higher than what people are willing to pay. To adhere to the regulation they are listing the properties at the mandated price, but offering gold (black money) to make up the difference. This means that the official price is higher than the actual market value.
If you look at America's boom, it is in no small part tied to our manufacturing and economy of our golden era, but I personally believe that the problem we have is the automobile. -- Sprawling inconvenient cities, traffic, pollution, and the costs of car ownership for every single individual actually make life worse for the working class.
and yet a country of 330 million has been the richest, most innovative, and strongest in terms of economy and industry since 1918/1945
It was because we built infrastructure like they’re doing now. Then we stopped and let it all rot.
Cars let USA spread out alot, it may be nicer to have very dense city centres to cut down on the autos in some places. I loved living in Singapore without needing a vehicle.
Economically, I fail to see the correlation as the US still has the highest disposable income in the world, but socially the sprawl in lack of decent public transit does isolate us and makes life hell for those at the bottom.
Us had the two advantages of the entire rest of the world bombed to oblivion and extremely favorable geography. Us has more internal navigable waterways than the entire rest of the world combined, which makes it extremely cost effective to move things around. Add to that every natural resource within its borders and continent spanning with friendly neighbors to the north and south and it’s a recipe for success.
_"China is not going away. To argue otherwise is to overcorrect from the prior era of optimism; to make the same mistake, in the opposite direction."_
Not necessarily, at all. You and we understand that someone can argue that "China is going away" without overcorrecting anything, without having been a "optimist about China" or even having have a "position about it" in the first place.
And not, the "real state bubble together with the demographic problem" is far from being the Fundamental Economic Problem of the CCP-topped China.
Your content about "China" is an excellent example of "grey propaganda".
Few rival countries like Vietnam, Philippines, India, Indonesia and Cambodia will compete very hard to attracted the foreign investment and Many Company will leave China and will go and settle their business in other countries.
That's why Asia will begin to overtake Europe and the USA. The dilemma the west faces is that western investment will lead to an increase in the ability of Asia to outcompete it, emulating the success of China and reverse-engineering western technology, developing its own industries and pursuing economic policies that are good for Asia but detrimental to the West. Refusal to invest, on the other hand, will eventually lead to a decline in profits and stagnation for western companies as their own manufacturing has moved abroad and their income stream rests on the manufacturing capabilites of others.
Isn't debt-GDP ratio 3 times smaller then stated in the video? Around 77% opposed to 250%, it would be nice to put sources in the video/description.
Edit: Ohh that's 2014 for some reason... But still seems wrong.
“Something is wrong with the Chinese economy”
*shows a picture of a line at a job fair that is much shorter than ones seen in Canada, a country he praised”
😂
Have you considered why so many bridges were built in Guizhou? Because unlike in the US, the Chinese government actually cares about the poor, and builds infrastructure to connect the economy of Guizhou. Specifically Guizhou is important, since it is a mountainous region, making transportation extremely difficult and thus impossible to trade. That's why bridges are so important for the province, despite it being poor, the government is doing its best to not leave anyone behind.
China's economic "miracle" is a mirage. When you hire a company to dig a hole and then ask another company to fill the hole, the revenue from both companies are added to the GDP. Whether the economic activities create real wealth is not a question asked when calculating GDP. USSR has very respectable PLANNED GDP but when planned economy is abandoned in 1989, GDP plummeted and most capital assets are written off.
you give wrong numbers,debt gdp ratio of china never reached at 200%. Counld you give the source of this number?
We are not witnessing Peak China, that happened at least 5 years ago and maybe as much as 10 Years ago? If many Western politicians had not bought into this Chinese model of economic growth and tried so hard to copy it, the West would not be in the horrible situation it also finds itself in. Horrible it may be, but China's situation is nothing more than terminal, indeed so hopelessly terminal that virtually the only growing industry in China will be in the coffin manufacturing sector. One good thing about watching videos about China is how much better they make living in the UK look. So relatively wonderful that I am starting to feel like one of the luckiest people in the entire world. This is in spite of the fact that I really don't like watching anyone suffer, but I can't help myself, these types of videos really cheer me up. I have stopped complaining about even past Labour governments as they seem relatively sane, prudent, and careful, compared to the CCP. Is there a government outside of North Korea that hates its own people with a passion more than the Chinese one? Even Rishi Sunak is starting to look good.
man I know you brits are having major buyers remorse over brexit and are getting royally screwed by losing access to russian energy, but don't shift your nihilism onto others.
At least china will be able to keep their lights on this winter.
Wrong on all fronts. The Brits don't even discuss Brexit anymore as nothing has happened as a consequence. We don't miss access to Russian Gas because we hardly had any before. Had you not noticed that we have no Russian Gas pipeline, and get most of our Gas from the North Sea. We are currently doing just fine over here. This may not last, but I would rather be here than anywhere else.
@@garypowell1540 yeah as if losing 2 PMs in a row to the fallout over brexit wasn't indicative. Ofcourse theres no point in talking about brexit anymore, that ship has saided and now you realise you've been sold a fraudulent bill of goods. None of what was promissed came true. the UK has only become less relevant as a result.
Energy prices affect the UK all the same even if you don't directly import from the russians.
I have no interest in the fate of the Tory Party, or the Labour Party as I grew up. I don't give a damn about the relevance or not of the UK, whatever that actually means. Whatever the situation with energy prices this very clearly has nothing to do with Brexit, so why have you even mentioned this in this context? If this does have anything to do with the EU then this war may well have something to do with the EU striding for more members to corrupt. Brexit has no relevance to at least 95% of the British people and it never did have any. You either believe in the benefits of national government along with national elections and therefore accountability or you don't. You can believe whatever you like. If you think that the World would be better run for the benefit of the masses by an unelected and unaccountable UN and those of Europe by an unelected and unaccountable EU, then so be it. I don't agree to say the very least, indeed I have much evidence to suggest that this will eventually lead to the scale of human genocide not witnessed before. Under these circumstances, I find the fate of a few MPs, a political party, or how 'relevant the UK is or is not of no relative importance whatsoever.
@@hughmungus2760 Rubbish, we are predicted to become the 2nd and possibly the strongest economy in Europe over the next year, and we never did by any Russian gas as we largely produce our own.
Can I ask how you make these graphics?
It would be more interesting to compare your partial data with that of US economy within the last 10 years.
This might not necessarily be related to the video but the Chinese countryside in some places is completely empty, I was visiting my family in northern china and we drove past entire neighborhood-sized clusters of abandoned buildings, apartments blocks, schools, warehouses, etc. with boarded up or empty windows, empty interiors and vegetation slowly taking over. As a visitor it was honestly kind of cool, it felt like i was will smith in I am legend or something, but as a resident i dont think these are particularly good sights to see
Sounds exactly like America's Rust Belt
@@xp8969 Not really
@@Hero101010 visit and see for yourself 😂
Heilongjiang is a special case and really most of the what was previously known as Manchuria is a special case. The best analogy would be to compare it to the Rust belt in the US or the North-Western Russia. These are all old industrial regions which previously pulled the workforce but after a few technological upheavals have never really adjusted to the new economy. And additionally, it’s damn cold there. The North-Eastern corner of China is a region suffering from classic economic depression which, let’s be real, have spread to at least one region in every industrial nation
@@kosatochca Not really true. That's not the case in Germany or France or Poland or South Korea. These industrialised nations don't have any regions which have particularly fallen behind the rest with high unemployment and high historical industrial sector relevance.
I wonder how this ties into China's recent force projection whether it be the recent border changes or the bases in the SCS, I wonder if they can support such expenditure.
China is overcapacity, arms trading is also a way to go just like USA and Russia
That's a good question. Also if they can support them can they support a war on top of it?
No. The timeline doesn't match anything in China. The current tensions date back to 2017 - nothing changed in China then. Xi came to power in 2012, half a decade prior. What changed in 2017? America. Trump came to power on an anti-China plank and launched a full blown trade war against them, which his successor has continued as it's one of Trumps' legacies that everyone loved. Ironically considering how determined liberals were to get rid of Trump, Biden is just continuing his foreign policy, albeit more multilaterally. You can see this in, for instance, the number of incursions on Taiwanese airspace - before 2017 there were barely any, now there's thousands. The largest military drills off also came after Pelosi's visit, against China's warnings.
In fact I read somewhere that the high-speed rail (which I WISH we had here in Australia between Brisbane to Sydney and Melbourne!) is so overbuilt that there are now a MAJORITY of lines that are not profitable! It worked in the big cities with high demand - so the governors of provinces built it everywhere - but now they're costing more than they generate. Every year!
I really love videos insight about china by polymatter.
India is slownig its dependency on other countries for electronic goods and technology.Now we are developing our own products.
Please design your own products and don't steal them from everyone else as China has done. There are very many bright scientists in India.
How was it the "first country to recover" from the pandemic when it appears they still haven't recovered?
The first time mentioned was about 2008. But idk if he said it ever recovered from the pandemic, because that just isn't true.
They did open up in late 2020. But the second wave kicked in 2021 and continued in 2022. So China kept having lockdowns one after the other, in various cities.
Your so called haven't recovered is because the world have a high expectation from China. China's GDP this year is about 5%. Lot higher than a lot of other countries.
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
Dont worry, we have been around for thousands of years. This is nothing compared to what we have been through the past 200 years. We have suffered from the Eight Nation Alliance invasion and Japanese invasion, and yet we are still around in one piece. I am not concerned at all
Two questions that weren't really addressed in the video that I'd be interested to get your view on.
1. Was the economic growth ever actually as high as they were claiming in the first place? There are lots of incentives built into the system that could lead to GDP growth being exaggerated, and at least one study I know of pointed to dictatorships exaggerating their GDP by around 30% on average.
2. What has been the impact of more foreign companies shifting parts of their supply chain to neighbouring countries like Vietnam, Thailand or India?
Yes, How reliable are Chinese statistics?
on the very contrary, due to the lack of a rigorous tax system on the consumer end, and an old and outdated GDP calculation method (SNA 2008), it's more likely underestimated than exaggerated. If you compare countries with similar GDP per capita with China, a lot of the third-party data shows that China should be in a higher category, This also fits my own observation as I travel and live in quite some countries now, I would say China's GDP per capita is close to 20K instead of 12K
@@weiliao7642😂😂 good luck selling this fantasy
12:42, China will be fine for a couple decades if construction demand is cut back as there’s still a massive rural population in comparison to developed countries that is expected to move, even if the overall population is declining, albeit a slower urban migration than before.
Also, 1.09 would not make China the least fertile country in the world, but South Korea. Is 1.09 still too high? Likely, but I doubt that would make it the least fertile.
nope, most of china is still poor, they can not afford to move.
Interesting take. I wonder how the labor supply numbers look if China pushes rural Chinese into cities instead of allowing immigration, which other countries can lean on for labor supply. What is the limit of sourcing most of your new labor from rural populations?
@shableep it will help in the short term, but in the medium term it will just accelerate population decline. People have less children when they move to cities. Rural Chinese have children at double the rates of urban Chinese.
@@JorgeM270 The only realistic solution for China is to find a Cheaper model to promote fertility rates, as its relative strength in technology & automation can at best match ours but more likely be at least a decade behind. Current ways of promoting fertility rates will either take too long and/or be too expensive and only suitable for high income countries whose citizens can afford to take many more hours off from work while still being very productive.
Immigration is unsuitable given how the 2100 population will be likely -500 to -800 million with current trends, as everyone else in asia either would not have enough people to immigrate to China and wouldn't want to immigrate to China instead of Japan/Taiwan/South Korea/Singapore with more freedoms and better salaries. This isn't to mention that even most undeveloped countries in Asia nearby China are also just at or above the replacement rate, so it wouldn't be sustainable.
@@JorgeM270 Long term. China still has hundreds of millions of rural people to draw on. The UN expects their population to fall to 800 million - by 2100. That's still over twice what America is expected to be at.
Honestly when the finish building they can just worry about other stuff like food produce technology etc... unemployment crises doesn't exist if the minimum salary is low enough
They also make up most of the numbers.
China peaked, India just began it's game :)
The funny thing is if you look at MIC2025... China knew this 10+ years ago, and they planned for it.
Who popped the Chinese real estate bubble? The CPC itself - after giving developers about 4 years warning.
Nah they will just switch to building infratsructure in other countries. This is already happening in sri lanka,Pakistan and many countries of africa. Where they are employing chinese workers, using chinese steel and drowning those countries in debt while they improve their economy and also get to build military bases
That highest bridge looked allot like CGI to me
我是中国人，这个视频说的很正确，很真实，中国经济目前面临的问题就是这样
那您覺得未來幾年中國股市有機會嗎?
机会大于风险。视频主包括评论的这帮人不明白甚至很多中国人都不明白改开中中国是怎么样的一路荆棘过来的，我只能说要相信中国的教育，世界上最残忍且最独一无二的
估计很悬@@kenisabadguy
没有@@kenisabadguy
倒也不必这么悲观，在全球经济衰弱的大背景下，中国积极推动国内经济大循环为主的双循环，乡村振兴的大战略，对绿色能源生态的大力发展，以及新兴产业的大力发展，对外，一百多个国家参与的一带一路，手机，新能源汽车，太阳能风能核核能，无人机大疆，造船业，以及各类齐全的工业产品，还有航天，量子，人工智能ai，大数据，通信，军工，生物，以及科技创新
世界不止西方，大量的东南亚，非洲，巴西为主的南美洲，以及中亚五国俄罗斯，中东
偌大的国家，几十年来积累的重工业，轻工业，各类科技产业创新新能源产业不会轻易崩坏。
Although I've seen these facets of the Chinese economy discussed numerous times by silver haired experts I'd put this presentation at the very top for it's ease of comprehending and its rendering in elegant simplicity of what is quite a complex subject. I'm going to save it for another viewing and perhaps another.
I am Chinese, in fact our situation is very bad, I feel that the economy is about to collapse! Is your country okay now?
I am American. My country is decidedly not okay in important ways such as, like China, increasing the debt to an astronomical degree in order to prevent this generation from feeling the pain but future generations will pay the price. In other ways the situation is cause for optimism. We are blessed concerning agriculture, petroleum, and a great deal of creativity in science and technology. What hurts is the reality that there is absolutely nothing I can do about the bad things and nobody cares what I think. I am the American equivalent of the Chinese "old hundred names". I must content myself with being true to my principles. @@yunma-father
@@yunma-father
Move to a democracy, seems to me that EU has a need for young people that are not pro dictatorship or M00seLambs, and China has a massive youth unemployment. With proper attitude, it's a match made in heaven.
I live in an authoritarian country, so I don't understand what democracy is, can you give me some detailed examples? For example...@@jeckjeck3119
@@yunma-fatherEvery country has its economic cycles. Part of the reason that China export decreased was because global slow down. Germany even have negative GDP while China is having around 5%. China was just getting out from COVID for less than a year. It take times to recover.
it always stays funny how they say that China's economy or Russia's economy is declining while theirs is taking heavy hits. Copium is the best Americans can produce
Ok real quick, the bridge to no where cliché. Of course it's no where, there wasn't a bridge. The point of building a bridge to no where is to turn it into somewhere. To open it up for cheaper exploitation. Infrastructure spending, assuming it isn't tofu, will always ultimately pay off. And in the short term a hardhat got a paycheck and he'll spread it around.
China has followed a policy of Keynesian economic stimulus writ large, which has worked well for emerging or recovering economies, such as the USA after the depression or Europe after WW2. The problem China now faces is twofold: firstly, their economy is no longer emerging, as we see in saturation of infrastructure investment (and this is likely a key motivation for the Belt and Road Initiative, which attempts to spread the effect internationally to benefit China). The second problem is widespread miss-allocation of resources, which in a command economy is subject to whims of leadership at various levels (an effect seen more obviously in the Kingdoms of the Middle East such as Dubai and Saudi Arabia).
China therefore now essentially suffers opposite economic problems to the west, which relied for four decades on liberalization, under investment, privatization of state assets (a route to release private savings) and release of embedded value via monetization (basically asset striping of both the state and private business) to stimulate wealth distribution and increased private consumption. Thus some version of neoliberal economic consensus (which has run it's course in the west) potentially offers a solution for China, however, it's difficult to see how they can adopt such a model politically, as it goes against both their demographic outlook (aging population) and the deeply ingrained, centralized political-economic philosophy.
The only slight positive is that there is clearly an acute awareness in Chinese leadership of the dangers of rapid de-centralization as was seen in Russia in the 1990s. So I'd say the thing to watch is if the Chinese leadership are willing to start making socially disruptive and philosophically challenging adjustments before events overtake them as happened to the USSR. Otherwise (as seems quite likely given Chinese political inertia) a period of political turmoil and perhaps even war is almost inevitable.
Lol at this horrible take, I dont even know how you manage to slap Keynesianism and Neoliberalism in one sentence, netherless onto China which is far off both models, you should go read a textbook on Marxian economics. BRI is not an issue, it attempts to reduce trade friction and boslter China's trade relations with its neighbours and its resources have been allocated efficiently as we can see in the phenomenal growth they have been able to achieve.
If anything China should focus on stimulating demand domestically to decouple its reliance on export revenue which would indeed follow a Keynesian apporach to avoid a downturn and I'm not sure you are aware but they have already integrated some aspect of Neoliberalism so it would not solve anything. USSR did not fail due philosophical disruption but the opening of neoliberalism with poor policy adjustment under Gorbachev caused it's downfall
@@none2912 I think you completely (and perhaps deliberately) misread my take; I'm not advocating for complete laissez-faire as this has clearly caused massive dislocations and inequality in the west. However China needs to stimulate domestic consumption and some level of economic liberalization will be an essential component of this, since centrally planned stimulus is clearly reaching it's limits and BRI has been pretty dismal too.
Modern Chinese economy is not really Marxist, it's more hybrid. But I'm not sure how you can call obvious massive overcapacity and widespread underutilized assets efficient allocation; It's easy to grow GDP when you just keep building random stuff, this is good for jobs but it also involves massive waste.
The issues with USSR and Russia are pretty obvious - they failed to reform a broken system for decades, which let the previous system collapse, resulting in a rapid and anarchistic shift to crony capitalism/kleptocracy. That's why China is keen to avoid a similar predicament and they need to take a more pro-active approach to reform. But also consider the future political and social implications of China failing to continue delivering sustained growth, as we already see e.g. in rising youth unemployment.
@@enemyofthestatewearein7945 The issue isn't with decentralisation thereby corruption, it's with domestic consumption which I would agree would require them to reform to a aggregate demand model to stimulate their internal growth which would be achieved through a Keynesian approach decoupling from the USD, after years of positive trade balance and focus on exports. I don't see how liberalisation would achieve anything as it would pave way for corruption as you noted was the case in the USSR, instead they should focus on reforming their monetary policy for demand.
And modern Chinese economy defintely adheres to Socialist principles, the overarching means of production are ultimately controlled and owned by the proletariat class (Chinese corporations are tied down) and is using bourgeoise means to achieve the transition which would eventually allow it to eridacte class divison.
@@none2912 I take your points, I'm just not sure how a rigidly controlled economy with a growing concentration of wealth can grow domestic consumption and reduce dependence on trade. There is already surplus production in many areas; albeit this allows them to dominate several technical sectors (e.g. Batteries, Solar) it actually increases dependence on external trade, both in the import of production machinery and export of finished products. Similarly, excessive infrastructure investments create many jobs, but have mediocre or non existent economic returns, and create a growing maintenance liability.
What's really needed is to grow consumer demand (and reduce savings) at the individual consumer level, and (this is just my opinion) this will definitely require some level of further economic liberalization (i.e. more economic freedom for the populace) because straight cash handouts like wage increases would simply be highly inflationary, damaging international competitiveness.
@@none2912what is marxian? 😂😂
Its interesting how the belt and road initiative could be a potential way out since China needs market penetration to keep going and it wont be long until the West reduces further chinese imports
The belt and road has been a failure. They just announced that next year will be the first time they cut the funds going into the project. The loans theyre making to low income countries aren’t getting paid, which is unsustainable even if they’re getting more leverage in those countries. At the end of the day, the math doesn’t work out
The only European big man (Italy) in belt and road pulled out this year:/ Belt and road is a failure.
China will turn to wars for CCP to stay in power, mark my words.
@@W333LWouldn’t that just provide the opportunity to demand compensation in other forms?
Perhaps a century-long lease on ports at strategically important locations. Perhaps exclusive mineral rights, or preference for Chinese companies.
@@dannyn.6933 they’ve gotten some concessions in instances like that, but if it’s not in the contract, there’s nothing they can do about the defaults. And a bad enough contract won’t be signed by the client state, so they often can’t be too greedy upfront. Either way, most of the areas they’re building out are very underdeveloped, and the reason they’re defaulting in the first place is because they aren’t profitable. So then China just owns a failing port of nebulous strategic value that hemorrhages money to keep afloat
@@W333L I'm not sure it's entirely a failure, but it certainly didn't work out as well as the Chinese government thought. China did buy up alot of valuable resources, for example Lithium and Cobalt mines in Africa, but it also lost a lot of money due to countries defaulting (wow, those corrupt countries that nobody lends to would default on debt payments?). The result is that now the government is short on money, especially provential, city, and lower level that have to hand over most of the taxes to central government. This is why once lucrative government and state owned banks jobs are cutting pay of civil servants, even some pensions to retirees. The BRI won't do much lending for a while because the government is now short on money and high on debt.
Documentaries about China are great.
The graph at 8:00 is a bit dubious, the conclusion may well be correct, but there's so little information in the graph it's impossible to make good conclusions, the y-axis scale on both sides is just percent, percent what, is it some obvious measure that I should know or is my suspicion reasonable? incomplete graphs always tickle the spidey-senses. Like it's not even clear to me whether the debt line is representing additional debt taken on at that time or China's debt as a whole, which it is is very relevant, the conclusion I would draw would be completely different dependent on which it is.
china was pretty rich throughout its entire history, only XX century was rough for them and even they have problems now i believe the chinese will solve them like they did before, they are very smart and hardworking people.
Was poor after invaded by the West. Took them decades to recover.
I agree with your point of view that now China is in the transition period, the transformation is successful, I will contribute my own strength to the Chinese chip to help the transformation
@@cinpeace353 Not true, as it was the case with India too. The only reason west could get any influence in China and India was because it was so badly managed and poor, with many internal conflicts.
If you think about what you implying it was that China and India were rich and powerful before invaded by the west, which would mean that West easily defeated "rich and powerful" China and India. That would be ridiculous if you think about it. In reality from simple size and number it was impossible, even in case of them being poor. In both cases internal turmoil and weak government was used to gain political control. But western control was only effect not a cause. I
The East definitely has not already "risen", most of Asia hasn't even reached its peak yet; and, unlike the West (EU, NAFTA etc), Asia doesn't have very many strong trading partners or not nearly as strong since most countries in Asia are undeveloped or developing. China has a gargantuan population, to imply it has already reached its peak is absurd, the population difference between the United States and China is approximately 1 billion, China still has a lot of room to further its economic success. And as other Asian countries begin to further develop and reach first world countries' standards, this will only accentuate China's economic success.
china is only just beginning to scratch the surface of high value added manufacturing. This is why the US is panicking and started the tech war with china. When china starts doing to the semiconductor industry what it did to consumer electronics. it will turn the world upside down.
Glad to hear that China is doing fine and doesn’t need help.Good.
Long story short, the Chinese economy is shrinking.
The Chinese economy never caught up with demands.
The part of the economy that wasn't the housing bubble didn't grow fast enough to keep up with the supply of the housing bubble.
I mean we are talking about a country that most likely has vacant housing for more than 100% of the population.
The high estimate is that there is enough vacant housing to house 3 billion people.
Some of those vacant houses are in very remote areas that people moved out of. 3 billion is a high estimate indeed... Also some Chinese have two houses one in the south for the winter and one in the north for the summer.
@@aoeu256
This is not about vacant sheds in rural China.
The 1.4 billion figure is an estimate of the size of all the ghost cities combined.
It is an educated guess of how bad the housing bubble is.
The fact remains that these houses represents the destruction of tens of trillion USD in wealth.
It doesn't matter if you lived in all four apartments when you can't sell any of them to pay off your debt.
Your only option is to stop consuming so you can afford serviceing your loans.
“The Chinese economy has better future prospects over the next 20 years than almost any other big economy,” - Charlie Munger
Jim Rogers as well.
Yeah, but he is selling Chinese company stocks🤣
@@petercheng5085 hha do more research
Genius. An economy with a gdp per capita roughly equivalent to Thailand has room for growth at rates above developed economies. That’s the least I would expect. As a developing economy, tell me, how are they going to outperform other economies over the longer term to break though the middle income trap ?
Their economy will to NOT collapse.