From Draghi to Meloni: what to expect from Italy - Fabrizio Tassinari in Geopolitics w Alex Stubb
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- Опубликовано: 27 сен 2022
- In the second episode of "Geopolitics with Alex", Fabrizio Tassinari answers Alex’ questions about the geopolitical consequences of Giorgia Meloni’s victory in the Italian elections.
What changes can we expect with respect to Mario Draghi’s government on the European Union, the Ukraine war and relationships with the United States and China?
“Geopolitics with Alex” is a sequel to "Understanding the War" which ran from March to July 2022.
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One of the best channels to understand and debate on the grand policy related to EU.
I appreciate the nuanced discussion of Italian politics, both domestic and international.
Finally an Italian analyst who is balanced and not ideologically driven! Thank you Alex and Fabrizio.
"ideologically driven",what does that mean?
@@m.walther6434 It means biased, it seems pretty obvious to me
@@giulianoilfilosofo7927 I wish it were that simple.
Ideological is usually conservative coding for left.
@@bimsbarkas in Italy doesn't have that meaning
As an American I enjoy listening to you unpack issues, events, and relations among EU NATO members. I am puzzled by the unrest in Hungary and sprouting friendship with Russia, plus the confusing relationship of Erdogan with NATO and with Putin. Will they retain membership in EU NATO? Would you care to make a video about those questions. Also, will EU NATO permit Erdogan to block Finland & Sweden, or unduly slow down their ratification for full NATO membership? Is there a work-around mechanism for such situations? Many thanks…
Erdogan struck a deal with Finland snd Sweden and won't oppose them joining NATO anymore. Unless he breaks the deal...like you I'm puzzled about Turkey as NATO-member while buying russian weapons and being all friendly with putin.
@@iris1224wwad according to my little knowledge on this topic…..turkey has very strategical importance for NATO due to the dardanelles strait for choking Russian navy in black sea, so removal of turkey from NATO will not be easily accepted by member countries, especially at present circumstances. May be i’m wrong?
These are very interesting questions we can't most likely answer, at best only predict. The future will show us what will happen.
Nevertheless, an educated prediction and knowledge into the history of these things would be interesting to learn.
@@iris1224wwad Turkey has a strong military, and it is in a key location with the ability to block access to the Black Sea. While Turkey poses a lot of political and ethical questions, a key question is "Would you rather have Turkey in NATO, or would you rather have Turkey allied with Russia?"
@@billgibbard9449 Well, I did not say we should kick them out, but these days it is at times...shall we say "an uncomfortable alliance"?
Thank you for this…not enough discussion of European political landscape. Excellent.
This is the most interesting, objective and advanced series I have seen in a long time.
Especially considering that now geopolitics is so important, and there is so much crap information going around.
Great timely discussion. I’m glad you are back on the case…. Of what is happening in Europe during the Ukraine/Russia war. You are a good detective ….! We are all learning a great deal about all the countries and how they will have to scramble for resources. Also … how or will it affect their relationship with the EU moving forward.
In hard times people crave strength and fear nuace. They vote away from the centre
* we
Please define 'hard times' and also what caused them in the first place (if you can). Thanks
@@joansparky4439 Hard times are slowing down of economic growth, high national debt, dip in currency value, strong inflation, supply chain issues, large expenditures such as incurred by natural disaster, pandemic disease, war and the resulting lowering in public spending and investment, and increases in unemployment .. id probably simplify that to say: the effects that lower the disposable income and opportunity available to the lower and middle classes (whether loans are granted and servicable to purchase homes, education, businesses)
Many of these are inevitable cycles within our modern arbitrage financial system, unfortunately. Obviously, some are exacerbated by geopolitics - for example receiving aid relief in natural disaster or not, having beneficial trade and financial agreements with stable economies or not, whether sanctions and war disrupt usual economy
@@stephaniewaters1777 OK, gotcha.
_"id probably simplify that to say [..]"_ try: economic stress
And except for natural disasters this is man made and caused, but too convoluted and complex to be recognized as such by individuals or vast swatches of society.. which means the next best reaction we tribal creatures feature is chosen - blame something (that doesn't fit your worldview) and direct your anger at it.
Which brings me back to your sentence: _"In hard times people crave strength and fear nuace. They vote away from the centre"_
People are tribal and seek simple solutions to complex problems.. blaming economic stress on 'others' is the easy and knee-jerk reaction they chose. Always. And power hungry demagogues abuse this for their own goals = nationalism. 😕
_(its the main reason for why ancient philosophers and US founders were strictly opposed to 'pure' democracy = mob rule)_
_"Many of these are inevitable cycles within our modern arbitrage financial system, unfortunately."_
I've been studying this complex for the last 15 years and I have to tell you, no, this ain't the cause of this. Honestly.
You want to know what is?
Our human nature (being selfish to different degrees, most extreme being narcissist, psychopaths, sociopaths) and the requirement of our societies to have a benevolent monopoly force (made up of us humans) to violently punish any selfish individual opportunist or group thereof that breaks societal rules. But who says that this monopoly force entity can't also enforce a couple rules that benefit a few at the cost of the rest?
And guess what.. It does! 😲
Don't take my word for it, here is someone from 250 years ago on one of those phenomena (there is more like this, much more):
_"The interest of the dealers [referring to stock owners, manufacturers, and merchants.. anyone really], however, in any particular branch of trade or manufacture, is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers. To widen the market may frequently be agreeable enough to the interest of the public; but to narrow the competition must always be against it, and can serve only to enable the dealers, by raising their profits above what they naturally would be, to levy, for their own benefit, an absurd tax upon the rest of their fellow-citizens."_
&
_"The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it."_ Adam Smith
I don't have quotes yet from ancient Rome or Greece, but I know about a story in one of the Greek wars were some opportunists got found out for scamming the state by claiming the loss of valuable trade ships for supplying war goods while deliberately scuttling old ships with scraps on them. Ruthless greedy selfishness has been alive and well since we formed societies.. couple that with the monopoly force (which over the last couple centuries got checks&balances added) and you can see how rich & poor come to be.
It's not our modern arbitrage financial systems that cause this.. it's us and how we organize our societies.
Now tell me if this makes sense and further if you've ever heard any mainstream sociologist or economist talk about this?!
Cause I haven't.😡
@@joansparky4439 when thing get tough .. day to day expenses, getting a loan, affording good school etc .. people vote for strong ideals. Strong left or strong right: leadership that cuts the fat, excludes the outsiders, brings strict morality and family-units into focus, punishes crime and sloth more.
Is there a reputable economist thst is alive who says economic crashes aren't inevitable ?
Thanks guys
Great Channel.....thank you for all the effort.....keep it up
Wish I was in Firenze too!!!
I like this interview format. Very good stuff.
Thank you for great analysis as ever.
Great conversation, yes I've worked in Italy in the past and when asked about Berlosconi the Italians would usually shrug as if to say, "What are you gonna do?"
Seeing what UK has become, and how Islamic has become, voting for Meloni is something natural.
@@Helga7850 Blatant bigotry, how refreshing.
@@Helga7850 so voting conservative worked out that well for the uk
@@bimsbarkas Yes, we admire Brexiteers because they are ballsy people. And British people are always welcome in Italy. It's your home too.
@@christophercousins184 We are proudly bigots, yes.
Meloni Is awesome. You can’t listen to her and not like her. God bless that woman.
There is logic generally underpinning a center-right position. That said, there has been a lot of concern in the media about Meloni and her right of center geopolitical positions. I, personally, feel that this concern is based upon the mainstream media's left of center positions. See Roberto Preatoni. Luckily, there is a multitude of various positions (Like this channel) available today.
interesting talk
Another excellent video! Within 16:16 of video, I have a cogent perspective of current Italian politics. I never even knew about "Next Generation EU"... The issue of immigration is also interesting since it plays out in USA also. Good stuff! But - I noticed that Alex Stubb is getting an Italian accent in this interview - very interesting!😁
Thanks to both, really interesting!
Fascinating talk, thank you!
It can be scary viewing all this possible shifting of European countries given that many countries are shifting to the political right and sending out mixed messages as they realign strategic economic and esoteric alliances.
They are tired of Africa and the woke left from America... Italy's direction is better today.
working with Prodi it is not such a privilege, in my opinion!
Like even before watching
Do you guys think that Italy will move away from the euro?
Unfortunately it won't happen.
You need ask this question to bce....
algo
Interesting the Catholic church centered in Rome did not get a mention. Maybe Italy considers such things as more domestic or maybe this issue is not significant enough to mention. On social justice issues Pope Francis may grate with the new government but on traditional family values he may synch.
Italians are very secular, actually. They like their own local parish, they live their own religion privately. The Vatican is a foreign state, after all.
why should we care about a foreign state? vatican is NOT italy
Another great talk between some very insightful discussants. Some friendly advice, though, Alex - please never wear that damn top EVER again. Your attire is normally on point; might as well have worn a potato sack!
Northeast Democrats and these gentlemen have the same left mindset.
I couldn't be happier for Italy. Listen to what she says and how could any Italian patriot disagree? The people voted for this very thing.
I've been watching Mr. Stubb's vids for the last 6 months. Before the war, never even heard of this guy. He's smart, successful and brilliant. However, as an American, my gut tells me he's a true liberal! Unfortunately, I think liberals have a flawed understanding of human nature. The very liberal mindset of western democracies have created the mess we are in with Putin. I'm not saying the conservative right is any less guilty. But, my position has always been that liberals would rather decimate their own country in order to try and save the devil while ignoring more reasonable positions. Anyways, hopefully the West can unite to save democracy from Putin. Or, we can continue to fight proper pronouns, arrest Trump and ban Cows! ✌️ 🕊️
_"I think liberals have a flawed understanding of human nature."_
Would you explain that a bit please?
And when you do, can you please define what you mean when you use the term 'liberal' as this differs between US / EU.
_Note, my background is EU (living in AUS), so I can deal with the different versions.. but without context it's silly._
@@joansparky4439 self explanatory. Nothing else to explain. You already know this. A lib in the USA is no different than one from Canada, or the UK, or Germany, or Uzbekistan. They're always trying to negotiate and save the soul of Satan at everybody's expense.
Meloni should work to fight migration. In particular, immigration from Muslim cultures threatens the free societies of Europe. To understand this, just take a look at Iran. The nations of Europe should work together to make Europe an impregnable fortress. The recent elections in Sweden and Italy give hope. Apparently some citizens woke up.
How do muslim cultures threaten free societies?
Who does make laws and enforces it? Lawmakers and governmental institutions or muslim cultures?
Who is deciding for example that our economies are winner takes all games? Muslims or politcians?
Who is accepting bribes to give friends and acquaintances jobs and positions of power to benefit personally from at the cost of the rest?
Muslims or politicians?
Who is generating rules like licenses, tariffs, IP, copyright, patents that make it hard for small entrepreneurial competition to enter markets, so that the few big corporations can control it all and extorts the workers? Muslims or politicians?
Who is blaming all this on muslims and uses the 'other' as a scapegoat?
Who has been doing this with other 'others' before?
Politicians!
_"Apparently some citizens woke up."_
No my friend - 'the citizens' just fell for it again.. it's heartbreaking to watch. All the problems are home made and caused by our own ruthless selfish greedy elite and before you know it they behave like any 3 year old behaves when you catch them doing something forbidden - they blame it on someone or something else. And 'the citizens' are falling for it.
If there is a God he's got the most entertaining and long running show with us that one could wish for. But to really enjoy it you have to be bereft of empathy and morals.. for me it's unwatchable.
@@joansparky4439 they claim to be patriots but they always turn out corrupt cleptocrats
@@joansparky4439 What can you expect from a guy with a videogame character as a profile picture?
@@Eurodrummer666 I listen to arguments and logic, not looks.. looks can be VERY deceiving and misguiding.
Case in point - look up a channel called 'Beau of the Fifth Column' and listen to that guy. I bet you $50 AUD you wouldn't have expected a guy with that look talk about social / liberal stuff the way he does.
@@Eurodrummer666 PS: and while we're at video game characters as avatars.. another channel 'Perun' did video game reviews up until 8 months ago.
Now?
He is THE go to source for military analysis that I know and which many many people agree on and look forward to once a week.
The Italians have had upwards of 70 governments since 1945, or about 1 per year.
Considering the headwinds facing the current government I wouldn't get too concerned since there very well may be another government in a short time.
We didn't have 70 governments, we are a Parliamentary Republic with a Perfect Bicameral System. The elections are still every end of the legislature. The only thing that changes is the parliamentary majority/coalition and the PM. Also this is the first time in more than a decade that an elected government enjoys such a solid and most importantly cohesive majority. Considering energy costs, war, immigration and the crisis of the manufacturing sector, no one is in the mood of half hassed liberal/leftist solutions that have brought us to this point in the first place.
@@giulianoilfilosofo7927 _" liberal/leftist solutions that have brought us to this point"_
Actually.. liberal/leftist solutions are kick the can down the road things while conservative/right solutions are heading straight for the cliff. But what do I know.
PS: the problems are systematic, no matter who is in charge, because the root cause is monopolism. No political ideology I know of (except for maybe libertarianism) is even thinking about this problem, not to speak of having a solution (there is none so far, I've been looking for years).
@@giulianoilfilosofo7927 cohesive as in United by greed and fear of losing power
@@bimsbarkas Actually you just described the Italian left
If you don't understand the existential threat that Italians feel to their race and their culture then you do not understand Italy at all whether it be geopolitically or otherwise
OK, so you got immigration happening from other places INTO Italy and that is a threat. Understood. Now.. how to solve this.. Italians also emigrated into other places, like the US or Australia for example. Why did Italians do this? Why do those immigrants that go to Italy/Europe do this now? Can you put yourself into the situation of the immigrants and understand them?
Because shutting your borders and sending people back or letting them drown in the sea isn't going to solve the problem that is causing the immigration pressure. Any thoughts on that?
I know the Italian economy isn't well and you got a lot of youth unemployment and all that.. but it's not really the immigrants that caused this, or? The economy has been bad for ages.. The immigrants just appear as an additional load on the resources of Italy and thus are a threat to the poorer people of Italy. That's really understandable, but are the immigrants really the cause for the unfair economic outcome within Italy? Aren't social market economic democracies supposed to be fair and to give everybody an outcome that matches his ability (and supporting anyone who is unable to make it on his own)? Immigrants didn't shape Italian domestic economic policy for the last 50 years!
*Does Italy have wealthy and rich people?*
*Any idea how they got wealthy and rich and where that wealth and richness comes from? How this "game" works?*
_When you catch a kid that did something that it shouldn't have done.. what does it do? Admit guilt or blame something else? What do you think the winners of this 'game' are trying first?_
It’s economics. Italy is not doing too well. It’s hard to support EU rules when it is becoming a “developing” instead of a “developed” country.
No where in the EU (except for some edge cases) are the people doing well.. just seen polls from Germany yesterday on the 2nd gov sponsored night news overview.. 44% in W and 36%? in E are acceptive of how the country is being run right now. And those numbers have been falling since they did the poll the last time a year ago by about 10% each.. As for it being economics, no, that's not all of it.. this runs deeper. It's about the resources to survive and all, yes. But that's not the crux (IMHO).
I have to laugh. I am an Italian American with many relatives in Italy. And I speak to them. They never mentioned any of these things that these academics are speaking of with the exception of immigration and the associated rise in Street crime, which is all they talked about. They don't feel Italy is Italy anymore. They see a declining birth rate and they see unchecked immigration and they all feel as if their identity is being erased, because it is. These academics would not and could not talk about that. If you ever want to see what an ivory Tower looks like just watch this video
Regular people have a narrow view of things. Italy's government has more to care about than immigration. The economy, energy security, geopolitics, they're all things governments are concerned with but not your relatives in Italy.
The only constant in life is change. All things change with time, and people can either change with them willingly, or be left behind. Trying to hold on to the past is futile.
@@Lewa500 that's the reply of an elitist. "Regular People?" Do you think there's something more important than the regular people of Italy? I thought the government was supposed to work for the regular people before all things. I thought the government was supposed to represent the interests of the regular people who voted them into power? And if the regular people feel as if their culture and Identity are disappearing, this should not trouble academics politicians or yourself I guess. Well the Brothers of Italy are your answer and they're going to be there for a while, I promise you. It is more than a just reply for the arrogance behind that statement.
I also have friends in Italy, grew up in southern Switzerland on the border (Italian is one of my mother tongues). My Italian friends circle is not happy about the election results, they only agree with the Meloni government about energy (lets hope Italians don't fu*k up with running nuclear power plants) and continued Ukraine support. They are highly skeptical about the government being capable of solving any other problem in the long term, such as the rising costs. The current gov. is probably just going to give handouts in exchange for more national debt, which is going to bite them in the a** further down the line. Their stance on immigration is populist, which means they complain about real issues, but don't really have any solution.
@@NIL0S That may all be true but what was the government doing to protect Italian Identity and culture? And if their government takes a hard line stance with immigration as they should that will have immediate benefits. read Douglas Murray's The Strange Death of Europe. You and Your friends may not understand the threat. If no one stands up for the Europeans States and Cultures soon there will not be any. That may not be important to some people but they will have everlasting regret if Europe becomes overrun with alien cultures. That is what is happening in Italy. I applaud the Italian people for standing up for their identity which is being erased by some insane world citizen leftist ideology.
you look so doppelganger. gay pearce. ohh
Putins reaction after the election in Italy:
🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
Meloni è la migliore soluzione per l'Italia 🇮🇹👍👍👍👍😎
Il Duce is back bois .. time to get the band back again 😂😂
The duce is dead we only want an Italy that deserves the right. I want to remind you that we Italy
We are a proud people of our past memory that we Italians have invented almost everything from the great adventurers to the great artists and painters we have invented almost everything from the banks we want to go back to our roots imagine the Romans have controlled Europe for 700 years nussun country and ahead of us Italians itali is One nation
@@Diana-ek7xs 👍👍
Meloni is in coalition with Berlusconi and Salvini, reknewed clowns in the entertainment industry, there is no way she can do something meaningful
Exactly my thoughts. It's going to be a highly amusing, populistic interlude.
This is the last chance for Forza Italia to survive politically and the last chance for Salvini to do something meaningful in his mediocre political career, because very soon he will loose the control of his political party, The League. If they will shut down this executive, they will both disappear.... instead this won't happen for Giorgia Meloni. The question is if Meloni will be a right wing populist, a sort of chauvinist democristiana, protecting municipals public companies and utilities owned by the government and increasing massive keynesian policies that led us nowdays to this disaster..... or a real statist, that will fight the public debt.... so she has to choose.
@@lorenzoluisalbano3695 careful that’s what people thought of Trump
Meloni got electeted because Italy didnt qualify for the World Cup
Or maybe because they didn't like the other political parties or wanted a female PM since so many other countries already have had one.
And Facebook he know i love Russia he make me angry help ukrine i Said peace stopWar Don't know what too him
Bla-bla-bla. I haven't heard any important idea or any serious analysis, quite boring
Italy definitely gonna go towards Russia this time with those two guys Berlusconi and Salvini as fun boys of Putin ridiculous.
Let's see how Brussels and European Union going to take that.
I suggest EU will freeze Italys budget or support if goes towards Russia italy needs to be very careful as they economy is in huge depth
🤣🤣🤣 You dont know shit about Italy.
Not gonna watch this, just more simping for economic immigrants at the expense of natives I reckon