I watched them alot last year and I gotta say they were wrong quite a bit. They were super high on miles sanders, dameon pierce, Carolinas offense, etc...
@@BakedJake27 are you referring to 0.5 tickets of picks. Regardless either you’re right or wrong. That’s it. Either you win or you lose. I only hit about 20-25% of my tickets. Although I only do correlated slips and hit for 10x and 25x tickets so I am still highly profitable. I have been hitting at nearly 70% in the past 10 months. Correlation is a cheat code. I have been preaching it since I have had ridiculous success. NFL was easy money. MLB is a little more difficult but not much. In fact I have been hitting over 75% the past few weeks. The only tickets I have missed I was 3/4 or 5/6. Also you can strategically use these demons against PP. I will take the lead off hitter of an elite offense to get over 0.5 run. Then #2 hitter I will either take over 1.5 HRR or if he has a strong history against the pitcher I will do the 2.5 HRR. Then the #3 hitter I will take over 0.5 RBI. With the 4the pick and to count as the player from the other team you can use a free square, a taco or you can take the over on the opposing teams pitcher. Either hits allowed, Earned Runs, under fantasy score, or under outs. I can’t count how many times I have hit these tickets in the 1st inning. Then on flex Fridays I just combine 2 teams and do the same thing. I had an 83x ticket miss by 0.5 runs. I still hit for 4.5x since I hit 5/6 with 4 demons. I hit for 38x a couple Fridays ago.
I've probably said in 90% of my drafts 'If Kincaid is still there my next pick I'm drafting him'.....then he's gone. It's a little pricey but hoping to get him more.
Exactly right. Passing up on JT at that point of the draft makes no sense. You usually need 2 RB's anyway, how many more points is a WR2 going to give you than RB1, especially when you figure on how many points you will probably lose from a lower end Rb later on? The bottom line is that you should draft the players that will give you the most points during the season while filling out your roster. Also, WR's are usually easier to find than a quality RB. If you lose a second round WR, it is still easier to replace that player compared to a RB1 that's taken in the second round. On top of that, WR's are generally more reliant on QB's than RB's are. Drafting WR's first makes the most sense in FPPR leagues but passing up on a RB1 to get a WR2 doesn't make sense.
He's legit my favorite pick in round 2, but hayden made great points. Right now in Best Ball, the drop off between at receiver that round to the next compared to RB's is steeper.
I'd say just do not take a RB 1 that either A. Splits workload (Devon Achane or Jahymr Gibbs) or B. Has a rushing QB that will take goal line TDs (Johnathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley). The floors on these guys are just way lower than guys like Kyren Williams, or Joe mixon or Isaiah Pacheco who command the bulk of the workload and will get the guaranteed goal line touches. (I understand the argument of Blake Corum taking goal line carries from Kyren but I dont think thats gonna happen.)
I think that’s accurate for if you are drafting in August but early on in May/June I think it’s of equal or even more important to understand the guys going in the last 5 rounds who are going to see meaningful playing time especially once the preseason gets into full gear. You want to predict the guys late who are going to be moving up several rounds by August/September.
@@bestgreenpest I mean yeah but that example isn’t the best because it a QB or a rookie WR for that team on one of the worst projected offense in the league. But I’m taking RB shots over Maye all day depending on team makeup. But tbh I’m not a believer in Maye and heavily concerned with that organization rushing him into action. That said If I need a 3rd QB he’s very nice stacking potential late. To nice honestly it tempts me when my exposure should be lower end considering the offense.
Week 1 return isn't ruled out apparently Ik it was the scariest injury but Chubb is legitimately built different. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 1000 yards this year
You can get Chubb as a RB 4 or RB 5. You don’t need that guy to be amazing early season. If Browns bring him back slowly he could be back to bellcow role by week 10 and ready to smash in the fantasy playoffs!
@@theohiooutdoors2444 Agreed. Chubb is a freak of freaks and apparently he's progressing super well. The fact he could play Week 1 is a great sign. I'm not saying reach for the guy, but to write him off may be risky
I was big on JT and still have him ranked as my RB4 but a lot has to go right for him to hit. He’s not a pass catcher and has missed 7 + games in back to back seasons. I also believe the colts O line is overrated which he can overcome but a lot has to go his way
L take, underdog is not full PPR so RBs who break off long runs and get TDs are favored. The offense is on an upward trajectory with a great upcoming Shane Steichen. “HeAllLLTttHhh” if you’re predicting health you faded CMC last year and how did that turn out
I would take him as my #1 TE. Grab him and let the extra targets work for you. I have cook and Kincaid and I'm pinching myself. Hoping for 5 targets and 50 more yards a game between the two. Why would I not expect that?
I want to sincerely thank you for this episode. I really hope my whole league watches it so I can get a couple of those guys at a value. I personally view opportunity over anything else here and most guys are getting fed!
not taking devin singeltary is crazy. he is going to be getting 80-85% of the teams snaps. not saying he is going to be great but he will be better than rb 32
Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy, who’s been pretty hyped by the team so far. He’s younger way faster, and is an elite receiving RB prospect. I don’t think he’ll get 85% of snaps. Maybe the majority but definitely not that high of a snap share
Not crazy at all. He’s one of the worst starting running backs in the league behind one of the worst offensive lines in one of the worst offenses. He’s not a workhorse back. He’s good for 10-12 Carries a game and some receptions, just like every other year.
Love the videos keep crushing it. Please also count this as a Vote from someone who just got into Best Ball/Underdog who doesn’t want to see it turn into DFS with loads of Autodraft Bots/Applications and everyone using a handful of a couple Rankings. I don’t really care from a competitive perspective, I just think the pure drafting format it has been is awesome and that will 100% ruin some of the enjoyment of it.
i really like jahmyr but he’s not gonna get the volume a JT is. Yes, he’ll most likely have more chunk plays, catches etc. But Montgomery will get the goal line work and the inside the 5 work. Just dont see him finishing above JT and yet he is getting drafted ahead of him.
Idk man. I understand the Panthers offense won't be amazing, but the draft capital, tape, numbers and post draft speech from Canales detailing how they plan to use him, lots of manufactured touches and down field shots, have me smashing Xavier Legette at his adp.
I like Pearsall over him in that vicinity, but I've got a good amount of Legette as a WR 5ish. The upside of all the rooks vs. established mediocre talent is well worth rostering.
@@jluchette I've got a bit of Pearsall as well, but the prospect of him taking away a meaningful target share from guys like CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle seems a whole lot less likely than Legette competing for targets against Johnson and the ghost of Adam Thielen. Carolina also has a much worse defense which should result in Carolina playing from behind and throwing a lot more than they want to.
I don't even know how anyone can take Pearsall when the Niners have so many other elite targets. Legette anyday just because he's likely to be the most talented WR on his team day 1.
I’ve been drafting a lot of Achane and Moestart. I trust the dolphins offense to get them red zone success. I have one league where I got both of them because I didn’t like the other players. Also, they always seem to be available .
Because neither can be trusted to play the whole season, and both can be trusted to poach tds from each other. That's why people are staying away from both. Plus neither was able to put up consistent play, if the games were not blowouts. There were weeks when they would only get you 4-7 points in a half ppr league, that's bad.
Hoping you are right with Swift as I think Herbert is a better option for us. I just think the coaching staff keep pumping him up and reliable Bears reporters have suggested he will be the feature guy and that Herbert might not make the team. I think Herbert is the better player but I am not sure the Bears agree with us
This is like when the community loves a player during the pre draft process and the nfl tells us they don't agree (Troy franklin) and you still hold onto hope that he's good. Not only did the bears pay swift a pretty large contract with guarantees, there has been multiple rumors of herbert being traded. Where there's smoke. Hoping herbert is the guy to own in this backfield is cope. And I like herbert and I hope he's traded to a team who has a hole at rb, but it's swift time in chicago
I will not even look at Cooper Kupp this year with his 3rd round grade. Many more reliable options plus as mentioned really strong RB picks after going WR WR.
@@eag8999 He has a degenerative muscle problem in his hamstrings. He will be top 8 for 6 weeks then his body will fall apart and miss the rest of the season. I will not regret anything.
Some nice fades. I am light on JT and also terrified, but not a full fade for me more like 5% because have Saquon ranked above him and the other WR in second half of round 2, but he could hurt me for sure.... I am also light on Swift who I only have in a few lineups with Caleb for the correlation (he is a pretty good pass catcher, but I HATE him at the goal line). I am not worried about fading Swift. I like him in Caleb lineups only because he could have correlated TD in playoffs.
10x10tm 1qb PPR. No TEP. dealt swift, 1.08 (Ladd) and 2025 late 3rd for 1.04 (Rome), Charbonnet and 4.06 (Bucky Irving). Pretty happy to get credit for Swift and get Rome.
0% share for three 1st Rd players through 23 drafts (statistical anomaly haven't picked #1, #11 or #12): J Chase (have him slotted #8 -> never slides to 1.8) B Robinson (take B Hall 100% or pivot to WR -> expect a lot yards but modest TDs for Robinson) G Wilson (slotted him #10 and love him -> a WR I slotted higher slips to 1.10 every draft... usually A Brown or A St. Brown)
The problem with your analysis on Swift is the way the coaching staff used him, or should I say, wasted him. They really underused him as a receiver, and didn’t put him into good position when they did throw him the ball. They also abandoned the run later in the year, which was a huge reason Swift’s stats suffered. Yes the Philly O-line really helps an RB’s stats, but the drop off to Bears is not nearly as far as it was when Miles Sanders went to Carolina.
7:00 on Swift and Hurts goal line stats.. I think TushPush skews those stats quite a bit. I don’t know for certain.. But could easily guess that half Hurts TDs came on TushPush. If Chicago doesn't run that down there.. Or is worse at it.. Swift might benefit.
I'll be different... in both my leagues I will be targeting Swift! I think he will be big this year. Teams won't be stacking the box vs Chicago with all of their threats - I think that will leave big holes for Swift. Also - I think he will catch a lot of passes. Maybe I am wrong...but I like his potential
I don’t think Swift has the efficiency he did last year, but he will be the dump off option for a rookie qb, he’s obviously the lead back, and the bears have arguably the easiest schedule. Plus the bears O line was middle of the pack last year so it wasn’t awful. I expect him to finish somewhere in the rb15-20 range. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it a little higher.
Kincaid as a fade is crazy lol. MAYBE he's a little high on ADP right now, but you even stated you'll still be drafting him, and that the split b/w him and Knox will be lower and he has a great chance to lead one of the best offenses in the league in targets and catches. Especially paired with Allen, who will almost guaranteed be top 3 in QB points, it's a no brainer to stack them often. I'm fine with you naming him a little bit overvalued, but he shouldn't be in a "we refuse to draft" video lol.
I don't love Swift overall but I don't mind his ADP. If a guy with that talent level getting over 50 percent of the touches is your back end RB2, I think you're doing okay, assuming you've used prior picks to bolster WR.
Zero Kelce… 2023 week 15 - 7.8, pts week 16 - 9.8 pts, WEEK 17 *4.6* pts (DK) just a complete bust in the playoffs last year, high probability of that happening again this year. No thanks, love u man but too much opportunity cost, way too much for a part-timer, especially during the money weeks. I wouldn't draft him in the 6th lol
One year ago we were excited to draft J.K. Dobbins over Gus Edwards in Baltimore. Fast forward one year and everyone's drafting Gus over Dobbins. I know injuries play a role in that ADP, but damn I want to get more Dobbins.
@@augustuswetzel Zamir showed he can be a lead back when Jacobs was hurt & Conner is a set & forget guy, his only problem is health. Conner bailed me out plenty of weeks with his production 😊
Jon Taylor does have a week 14 bye which has me avoiding him a bit more otherwise i love his value at the turn he should be ahead of Bijan and Gibbs for sure we know hes a top 5 RB talent wise
I'm avoiding Bears WRs. I like all of them but I am a Bears fan and I have my doubts that Eberflus and his ultra conservative nature is going to suddenly allow for a pass happy attack. That and they have a rookie QB and brand New OC too much unknowns for me to feel comfortable at the high price tags they are going for. Im basically fading all bears with the exception of Kmet who is going way to late IMO.
@@pfunk1992 There's a lot of change which was needed 💯. Shane Waldren minus Dave Canales wasn't good last year. His offense played very slow and that's really concerning. How much influence will Eberflus have on play calling is my second question. Because he is very conservative when games are on the line to the point where we lost at least three last year because he would go ultra conservative calling the defense and then they'd get torched on d late in a bunch of games. Defense would go from airtight to can't stop anything. I'm not sold on coaching staff and I don't know if they will actually utilize the talent they have. This is the same GM and Head Coach that watched Getsy install a quick out bubble screen offense making Justin Fields a pocket passer and didn't do anything... His strengths are running and deep passes and they took those away and thought this is a good idea. So yeah I am not confident in the coaching and leadership of this team.
Are yahoo ranking whack? I’ve been doing Mock drafts on yahoo and Jonathan Taylor goes first round in 12 person drafts every time. Usually around pick 9-10.
Yahoo does their own rankings based on their in house experts. On Yahoo Etienne last year was an early 2nd rounder where on all other platforms he was 3-4th rounder. They were right.
@@scattau41 Interesting. I didn’t know that. Thank you for the reply. Do you happen to know if the yahoo rankings are trustworthy? Or should I use an alternate ranking system?
@@A_Hotdog_Guy You're welcome and yes I find them (generally) trustworthy. I would familiarize myself with the underdog/sleeper rankings then maybe listen to a yahoo fantasy football podcast or 2 to see where they are coming from and kind of balance the two in my own mind.
If you're running hero RB, which is objectively the best strategy to run this season - grabbing an elite WR in round 1 and a guy like JT in round 2 is a smash. Fading JT in the first round, I'm all about it. Fading him past that seems silly when you know he's one of like 5 guys who will get as close to bellcow work as possible, even if A-Rich vultures him a bit. As an aside - the mike williams fade might be the lowest hanging fruit of all time lol. Can we get a re-do on that one??? I feel cheated.
My zero or very low dudes: Adam Theilen, Tyler Lockett, Tony Pollard, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy, Allen Lazard, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Antonio Gibson, Kalil Shakir, Quentin Johnston.
I dont know man, i think JT is going at a good value. Early 2nd for a former 1.01 who's fully healthy now and like you said Trey Sermon is his backup, I see a bounce back year and early 2nd is solid. Mine at each position are Mahomes, Achane, Olave and Pitts. I make fantasy football videos too, check it out if you're interested
I love the constant evolution of fantasy football verbiage. It used to be a guys “stock” was high or low, then you had shares, then exposure, now it’s overweight / underweight 😂
I'm not necessarily against fading Legette. The offense would have to take such a leap and even if it does that might just mean Diontae was huge. For the offense to be so good to support both would be a nearly inconceivable leap. Some of the reasons you listed are a little vibes bassed tho lol. If we're worried about Mingo taking too much away then you just hate the Legette projection under any circumstances. Mingo's metrics across the board were god awful. If he's stealing snaps away then the bigger issue isn't Panthers dynamics, it's just that Legette is bad lmao. I'm curious if there's a distinction for you that makes JT a near 0 at price versus Saquon. They seem like similar projections to me. High talent RBs with a capped ceiling on catches and goal line opportunities.
I prefer prioritizing WR in the first two rounds. Then again, JT is more proven than achane, plus Barkley has Hurts as a vulture. I'd rather just avoid RB altogether unless I get the 1.1
I have avoided Nabers. Way too high for a rookie on an offense that was that bad and with Jones at QB still (although i think he's dropped a bit over then past a few weeks). And Alvin Kamara. He looked nowhere near as explosive last season. I dont want to say hes lost a step, but he certainly looked it last season.
I like Mike Williams. Rodgers likes bigger receivers especially on those back shoulder and fades. Red zone target, defenses are afraid of Wilson deep unlike Allen. Jacobi Meyers is going to loose work to Bowers and Tucker. The Raiders are a run first team that’s loaded at receiver.
Hurts doesn't "run" the ball inside the 10YD Line. That narrative should be put to rest and that stat is meaningless when comparing to a traditional RB. Hurts "runs" from the 1yd line with 2 guys pushing him forward and his OL perfecting giving him 1yd. Will be interesting to see if his efficiency on the tush push goes down sans Kelce. C is a pretty important position when you are running through the A gap every single time.
Horrible RB’s have great seasons playing in Philadelphia. The All pro Center is gone so maybe there won’t be as much tush pushes, but we are brain dead to not understand how dominant Barkley could be in that offense
Reasonable. But with IR option, I would just let him sit. Thing is, I stream virtually everything that rates it. Every season players no one expected emerges at all positions.
Not drafting JT in the second round is foolish at best. I could see passing on him but only if there’s a player that you believe has league winning potential
Yeah like if you got a shot at a potential top 8 receiving finisher like Marvin Harrison then sure, but don’t be passing on Jonathan Taylor for someone like Devonta Smith whose gonna get you no more than 230 ppr points max
Marvin Harrisson Jr. I get the rookie fever, but damn, he is so expensive for a rookie that doesn’t make any sense to draft him up there…. Will be a amazing WR, no doubt, but for this price (WR 5-8) I am passing him every time. Even for dynasty, because I rather have Puka, NFL proven talent, than him.
Round 1-2 guys winks isn't drafting (my guess): Bijan, Saquon, Marvin, Olave, Deebo. I'm also low on MH Jr and Olave bc saints are hot ass garbage and MH Jr will probably be Wr 2 behind McBride. Winks definitely betting on Ayjuk staying too but I'm not sure about that🤔
I've never gotten the "JK Dobbins has been 'really good' when healthy." He's had a few good moments, but he's so far removed from them at this point. He's always injured with MAJOR injuries. I mean, maybe he can come back & play. D'Onta Foreman overcame early career injuries, so it's possible. But please, stop with this "he's the most talented RB on the roster" nonsense. He might not even be the most talented, & he might be done in terms of the injuries he's suffered.
just remember folks, these receipts exist forever on the internet. The internet never loses
I watched them alot last year and I gotta say they were wrong quite a bit. They were super high on miles sanders, dameon pierce, Carolinas offense, etc...
Yeah normally this video is a good benchmark for players to target.
Yup they missed on a good amount last year. They’re good at acting like they know what they are talking about.
You can only call so much right/correct. The best gamblers are just above .5
@@BakedJake27 are you referring to 0.5 tickets of picks. Regardless either you’re right or wrong. That’s it. Either you win or you lose. I only hit about 20-25% of my tickets. Although I only do correlated slips and hit for 10x and 25x tickets so I am still highly profitable. I have been hitting at nearly 70% in the past 10 months. Correlation is a cheat code. I have been preaching it since I have had ridiculous success. NFL was easy money. MLB is a little more difficult but not much. In fact I have been hitting over 75% the past few weeks. The only tickets I have missed I was 3/4 or 5/6. Also you can strategically use these demons against PP. I will take the lead off hitter of an elite offense to get over 0.5 run. Then #2 hitter I will either take over 1.5 HRR or if he has a strong history against the pitcher I will do the 2.5 HRR. Then the #3 hitter I will take over 0.5 RBI. With the 4the pick and to count as the player from the other team you can use a free square, a taco or you can take the over on the opposing teams pitcher. Either hits allowed, Earned Runs, under fantasy score, or under outs. I can’t count how many times I have hit these tickets in the 1st inning. Then on flex Fridays I just combine 2 teams and do the same thing. I had an 83x ticket miss by 0.5 runs. I still hit for 4.5x since I hit 5/6 with 4 demons. I hit for 38x a couple Fridays ago.
Not wanting to draft Taylor is insane but hey everyone’s allowed to have opinions lol
Hater episode hell yeah
Fuckin love being a hater
@@Ryan-by8uiI like waking up early so I can have extra time to be a hater
Just drank 48 oz of haterade
woke up early to hate
I dont even sleep. Too much hate. When I get sleepy I just sit on a chair and start hating. Keeps me going. 😠
Dalton Kincaid is a smash play this year.
I've probably said in 90% of my drafts 'If Kincaid is still there my next pick I'm drafting him'.....then he's gone. It's a little pricey but hoping to get him more.
I get people like getting Wrs early but when Taylor is there in the second or even later idk how you can pass on him when he has the rb1 upside.
Exactly right. Passing up on JT at that point of the draft makes no sense. You usually need 2 RB's anyway, how many more points is a WR2 going to give you than RB1, especially when you figure on how many points you will probably lose from a lower end Rb later on? The bottom line is that you should draft the players that will give you the most points during the season while filling out your roster. Also, WR's are usually easier to find than a quality RB. If you lose a second round WR, it is still easier to replace that player compared to a RB1 that's taken in the second round. On top of that, WR's are generally more reliant on QB's than RB's are. Drafting WR's first makes the most sense in FPPR leagues but passing up on a RB1 to get a WR2 doesn't make sense.
He's legit my favorite pick in round 2, but hayden made great points. Right now in Best Ball, the drop off between at receiver that round to the next compared to RB's is steeper.
@@Thiiinkdumb response
Yeah man I was watching the highlights while he was talking and just shaking my head. A high end Rb1 in high end WR2 range
I'd say just do not take a RB 1 that either A. Splits workload (Devon Achane or Jahymr Gibbs) or B. Has a rushing QB that will take goal line TDs (Johnathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley). The floors on these guys are just way lower than guys like Kyren Williams, or Joe mixon or Isaiah Pacheco who command the bulk of the workload and will get the guaranteed goal line touches. (I understand the argument of Blake Corum taking goal line carries from Kyren but I dont think thats gonna happen.)
Unpopular opinion = getting the high end fades right is more important than anything else all off season.
I think that’s accurate for if you are drafting in August but early on in May/June I think it’s of equal or even more important to understand the guys going in the last 5 rounds who are going to see meaningful playing time especially once the preseason gets into full gear. You want to predict the guys late who are going to be moving up several rounds by August/September.
Maye --> Polk
@@bestgreenpest I mean yeah but that example isn’t the best because it a QB or a rookie WR for that team on one of the worst projected offense in the league. But I’m taking RB shots over Maye all day depending on team makeup. But tbh I’m not a believer in Maye and heavily concerned with that organization rushing him into action. That said If I need a 3rd QB he’s very nice stacking potential late. To nice honestly it tempts me when my exposure should be lower end considering the offense.
@@VinegarAndSaltedFries Watson ----> Thrash
Not unpopular, everyone knows that you can’t win your draft in the early rounds but you can lose it
Hayden told us to draft Dameon Pierce last year... i'm out on his RB advice.
You’ve never been wrong before?
Yeah he should’ve totally been one of the few if any to predict the Texans RB1 would fall of a cliff his sophomore szn
You do you boo.
I've done over 50 drafts so far...zero shares of Chubb
Same
Week 1 return isn't ruled out apparently
Ik it was the scariest injury but Chubb is legitimately built different. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 1000 yards this year
You can get Chubb as a RB 4 or RB 5. You don’t need that guy to be amazing early season. If Browns bring him back slowly he could be back to bellcow role by week 10 and ready to smash in the fantasy playoffs!
@@theohiooutdoors2444 Agreed. Chubb is a freak of freaks and apparently he's progressing super well. The fact he could play Week 1 is a great sign.
I'm not saying reach for the guy, but to write him off may be risky
@@timocruz510 no f'ing way, lol He will never get to 1,000 again, imo His injury was absolutely horrific.
Starting off Jt is wild, I have him in 21% my heart dropped
I was big on JT and still have him ranked as my RB4 but a lot has to go right for him to hit. He’s not a pass catcher and has missed 7 + games in back to back seasons. I also believe the colts O line is overrated which he can overcome but a lot has to go his way
I’m taking plenty of him
I have very little faith he will stay healthy. Especially at the end of the season when it really matters in best ball.
L take, underdog is not full PPR so RBs who break off long runs and get TDs are favored. The offense is on an upward trajectory with a great upcoming Shane Steichen. “HeAllLLTttHhh” if you’re predicting health you faded CMC last year and how did that turn out
I don't want to spend a 1st round pick on a guy who's gonna get half his TDs vultured by his QB
Oh man kincaid dman bro that is a very scary fade
Lol I just texted that right before you said scary fade
Agreed. He could be the #1 target, I pick him up every chance I get.
I would take him as my #1 TE. Grab him and let the extra targets work for you. I have cook and Kincaid and I'm pinching myself. Hoping for 5 targets and 50 more yards a game between the two. Why would I not expect that?
I have Allen Cook and Kincaid with Samuel on one team and didn't feel that all can't eat but will monitor
Having him above Mcrbide is sort of wild
I very much appreciate the concept of this video and I haven’t even watched it yet.
Just the title
my hottest take is I am actively avoiding Puka in round 1
Same here
Same, i honestly think focusing elsewhere and taking kupp later is the move than taking puka at all
Love this channel love underdog only wish that they had more best ball tournaments that were single entry
I think about this all the time! Wtf!! They need more single entry tournaments
It’s insane, some allowing 100+ entries it’s a joke
I want to sincerely thank you for this episode. I really hope my whole league watches it so I can get a couple of those guys at a value. I personally view opportunity over anything else here and most guys are getting fed!
not taking devin singeltary is crazy. he is going to be getting 80-85% of the teams snaps. not saying he is going to be great but he will be better than rb 32
Where are the TDs coming from this offense is gonna suck plus there are better profiles going around him
Giants have a new O-line coach, plus singletary's ADP is generous... worth the cost of entry imo
85% of snaps is just insane to assume lol
Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy, who’s been pretty hyped by the team so far. He’s younger way faster, and is an elite receiving RB prospect. I don’t think he’ll get 85% of snaps. Maybe the majority but definitely not that high of a snap share
Not crazy at all. He’s one of the worst starting running backs in the league behind one of the worst offensive lines in one of the worst offenses.
He’s not a workhorse back. He’s good for 10-12 Carries a game and some receptions, just like every other year.
Can't believe yall spent 10 mins on Swift. 25% of the video.
not even worth 5 minutes
Cant believe u just watched it and complained after watching a free video that you could stop watching at any moment
@@danielmadsen439 can't believe you can't believe that people make comments on the internet.
Swift sucks ..
@@demetriusarteaga8242swift couldn't punch it in the endzone that's why Hurts got all those totes
Fading D'Andre Swift looks really accurate over 3 weeks of the 2024 season 🎯
Josh's reaction at 01:22 is hilarious :D
Love the videos keep crushing it. Please also count this as a Vote from someone who just got into Best Ball/Underdog who doesn’t want to see it turn into DFS with loads of Autodraft Bots/Applications and everyone using a handful of a couple Rankings. I don’t really care from a competitive perspective, I just think the pure drafting format it has been is awesome and that will 100% ruin some of the enjoyment of it.
i really like jahmyr but he’s not gonna get the volume a JT is. Yes, he’ll most likely have more chunk plays, catches etc. But Montgomery will get the goal line work and the inside the 5 work.
Just dont see him finishing above JT and yet he is getting drafted ahead of him.
Idk man. I understand the Panthers offense won't be amazing, but the draft capital, tape, numbers and post draft speech from Canales detailing how they plan to use him, lots of manufactured touches and down field shots, have me smashing Xavier Legette at his adp.
I like Pearsall over him in that vicinity, but I've got a good amount of Legette as a WR 5ish. The upside of all the rooks vs. established mediocre talent is well worth rostering.
@@jluchette I've got a bit of Pearsall as well, but the prospect of him taking away a meaningful target share from guys like CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle seems a whole lot less likely than Legette competing for targets against Johnson and the ghost of Adam Thielen.
Carolina also has a much worse defense which should result in Carolina playing from behind and throwing a lot more than they want to.
I don't even know how anyone can take Pearsall when the Niners have so many other elite targets. Legette anyday just because he's likely to be the most talented WR on his team day 1.
@Hayden I expected you to say Barkley/Achane and not JT. You are a wild man
Why is there so much barkley hate?
Did Swift have any rushes from the 1-2 yard line? Which rbs are scoring from the 9 yard line???
I’ve been drafting a lot of Achane and Moestart. I trust the dolphins offense to get them red zone success. I have one league where I got both of them because I didn’t like the other players. Also, they always seem to be available .
Because neither can be trusted to play the whole season, and both can be trusted to poach tds from each other. That's why people are staying away from both. Plus neither was able to put up consistent play, if the games were not blowouts. There were weeks when they would only get you 4-7 points in a half ppr league, that's bad.
@@cameronzwicke5761 Achane is going in the 2nd round. Very few people aren't on him
@@cameronzwicke5761too many eggs in one basket
I'm with you guys on D'Andre Swift. I remember being ridiculed last year when I said he wouldn't be a top 10 back.
Hoping you are right with Swift as I think Herbert is a better option for us. I just think the coaching staff keep pumping him up and reliable Bears reporters have suggested he will be the feature guy and that Herbert might not make the team. I think Herbert is the better player but I am not sure the Bears agree with us
This is like when the community loves a player during the pre draft process and the nfl tells us they don't agree (Troy franklin) and you still hold onto hope that he's good. Not only did the bears pay swift a pretty large contract with guarantees, there has been multiple rumors of herbert being traded. Where there's smoke. Hoping herbert is the guy to own in this backfield is cope. And I like herbert and I hope he's traded to a team who has a hole at rb, but it's swift time in chicago
Herbert still bad as pass pro. Shame as he's a great runner.
I will not even look at Cooper Kupp this year with his 3rd round grade. Many more reliable options plus as mentioned really strong RB picks after going WR WR.
Kupp will be a wr1, probably top 8. You will regret this.
@@eag8999 He has a degenerative muscle problem in his hamstrings. He will be top 8 for 6 weeks then his body will fall apart and miss the rest of the season. I will not regret anything.
@@eag8999 I like Kupp but he wont be #1 on his team
People aren't 'drafting' D'andre Smith...he is dropping to you in the 10th round. He is this years Antonio Gibson
Some nice fades. I am light on JT and also terrified, but not a full fade for me more like 5% because have Saquon ranked above him and the other WR in second half of round 2, but he could hurt me for sure.... I am also light on Swift who I only have in a few lineups with Caleb for the correlation (he is a pretty good pass catcher, but I HATE him at the goal line). I am not worried about fading Swift. I like him in Caleb lineups only because he could have correlated TD in playoffs.
10x10tm 1qb PPR. No TEP. dealt swift, 1.08 (Ladd) and 2025 late 3rd for 1.04 (Rome), Charbonnet and 4.06 (Bucky Irving). Pretty happy to get credit for Swift and get Rome.
0% share for three 1st Rd players through 23 drafts (statistical anomaly haven't picked #1, #11 or #12):
J Chase (have him slotted #8 -> never slides to 1.8)
B Robinson (take B Hall 100% or pivot to WR -> expect a lot yards but modest TDs for Robinson)
G Wilson (slotted him #10 and love him -> a WR I slotted higher slips to 1.10 every draft... usually A Brown or A St. Brown)
The problem with your analysis on Swift is the way the coaching staff used him, or should I say, wasted him. They really underused him as a receiver, and didn’t put him into good position when they did throw him the ball. They also abandoned the run later in the year, which was a huge reason Swift’s stats suffered. Yes the Philly O-line really helps an RB’s stats, but the drop off to Bears is not nearly as far as it was when Miles Sanders went to Carolina.
Knox We'll be in a 2 te formation with Kincaid so he shouldn't be much of a factor in reference to Kincaid's production
Man, I hope you guys are right about Caleb Williams on the goal line
7:00 on Swift and Hurts goal line stats.. I think TushPush skews those stats quite a bit. I don’t know for certain.. But could easily guess that half Hurts TDs came on TushPush. If Chicago doesn't run that down there.. Or is worse at it.. Swift might benefit.
No Tee Higgins no Slim Reaper. Great episode!
Taking Brandin Cooks over Jakobi Meyers is pure insanity
As much as I want and love yals glow up, chillllll, my league mates cant find out
Y’all’s has 2 L’s😂
@@alexallegood1040 you aint from the south south
@@JA_110 lmao I’m in the dead south of South Ga, you don’t know how to spell😂
@@JA_110 where you from
Better not say South Carolina😂
I love the face as he says the stats on jt. Honestly i agree and dont take him alot either for that reason but man it doesnt feel good.
Totally agree on Taylor...he is my surprise bust this year based on where he is being drafted.
love the list!
JT gonna be nice this year. Settled the dispute with Irsay, ready to ball out.
I'll be different... in both my leagues I will be targeting Swift! I think he will be big this year. Teams won't be stacking the box vs Chicago with all of their threats - I think that will leave big holes for Swift. Also - I think he will catch a lot of passes. Maybe I am wrong...but I like his potential
I don’t think Swift has the efficiency he did last year, but he will be the dump off option for a rookie qb, he’s obviously the lead back, and the bears have arguably the easiest schedule. Plus the bears O line was middle of the pack last year so it wasn’t awful. I expect him to finish somewhere in the rb15-20 range. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it a little higher.
Fading List: Olave, Diggs, K Allen, AD Mitchell, Legette, Roman Wilson; Barkley, Aaron Jones, Conner, Pollard, Zeke, Dowdle
Man who are you drafting?
Kincaid as a fade is crazy lol. MAYBE he's a little high on ADP right now, but you even stated you'll still be drafting him, and that the split b/w him and Knox will be lower and he has a great chance to lead one of the best offenses in the league in targets and catches. Especially paired with Allen, who will almost guaranteed be top 3 in QB points, it's a no brainer to stack them often. I'm fine with you naming him a little bit overvalued, but he shouldn't be in a "we refuse to draft" video lol.
He will be the TE #1. So many advantages this year for him. Take him and pat yourself on the back.
They forgot Calvin Ridley
Ridley is gonna hit. 1k 6+ TDs loading…
He’s the opposite of this topic for me - Josh
They have Ridley as a must draft
Ridley will outproduce his draft position. Lawrence can’t get him the ball. Levis will.
I have zero J Meyers. Agree Josh
I’ve already got Hurts, I’d love to grab Saquan if he lasts to the 2nd.
I don't love Swift overall but I don't mind his ADP. If a guy with that talent level getting over 50 percent of the touches is your back end RB2, I think you're doing okay, assuming you've used prior picks to bolster WR.
40-50 drafts! Damn! I am doing 3 this year and I thought I was over-doing it!!!!
Been doing 25 per year since 2016. Before that 10 per year
Since 1997.
@@ronniesen2522how do you manage all of that?
@@friendlyneighborhoodcollec5928 it's a process.
Zero Kelce… 2023 week 15 - 7.8, pts week 16 - 9.8 pts, WEEK 17 *4.6* pts (DK) just a complete bust in the playoffs last year, high probability of that happening again this year. No thanks, love u man but too much opportunity cost, way too much for a part-timer, especially during the money weeks. I wouldn't draft him in the 6th lol
One year ago we were excited to draft J.K. Dobbins over Gus Edwards in Baltimore. Fast forward one year and everyone's drafting Gus over Dobbins. I know injuries play a role in that ADP, but damn I want to get more Dobbins.
It feels so bad in underdogs not having three WRs in the first 5 rounds
JK Dobbins said himself in an interview that he wasn’t expecting much out of this opportunity but happy to be in the league after the injuries!!
Wow, surprised he would say that.
Really? I read he said he is 100% and ready to rock
Fades: Breece Hall,JT, Achane, Nabers, Tank Dell, Kyren, Kirk, Godwin, Aaron Jones, Zamir White, Connor, Javonte Will, Shakir, Ekler, Brown, Downs, Gabe Davis, mooney
Achane and Kyren for sure
Why Zamir White & Conner? Brown? A.J. brown?
Don’t like Javonte Will?
@@pfunk1992 chase Brown, and I think Zamir is next cam Akers, and Connor will get passed up
@@augustuswetzel Zamir showed he can be a lead back when Jacobs was hurt & Conner is a set & forget guy, his only problem is health. Conner bailed me out plenty of weeks with his production 😊
Jon Taylor does have a week 14 bye which has me avoiding him a bit more otherwise i love his value at the turn he should be ahead of Bijan and Gibbs for sure we know hes a top 5 RB talent wise
I'm avoiding Bears WRs. I like all of them but I am a Bears fan and I have my doubts that Eberflus and his ultra conservative nature is going to suddenly allow for a pass happy attack. That and they have a rookie QB and brand New OC too much unknowns for me to feel comfortable at the high price tags they are going for. Im basically fading all bears with the exception of Kmet who is going way to late IMO.
You might be the smartest Bears fan alive.
Same, but I'll take a share or 2 if they slide.
So why get the weapons of you not gone use them? I’m a bears fan as well & thinks they can win 12 games seeing that they have a easy schedule
@@pfunk1992 There's a lot of change which was needed 💯. Shane Waldren minus Dave Canales wasn't good last year. His offense played very slow and that's really concerning. How much influence will Eberflus have on play calling is my second question. Because he is very conservative when games are on the line to the point where we lost at least three last year because he would go ultra conservative calling the defense and then they'd get torched on d late in a bunch of games. Defense would go from airtight to can't stop anything. I'm not sold on coaching staff and I don't know if they will actually utilize the talent they have. This is the same GM and Head Coach that watched Getsy install a quick out bubble screen offense making Justin Fields a pocket passer and didn't do anything... His strengths are running and deep passes and they took those away and thought this is a good idea. So yeah I am not confident in the coaching and leadership of this team.
@@pfunk1992 Because all the weapons in the world dont mean anything when you have a rookie qb playing behind a trash oline.
I think reason D Swift gets drafted is because people remember a few huge games he had not the low end RB2 finish to the season
I havent drafted anyone yet because I'm not a junkie/fish drafting b4 the preseason starts
I can't believe Dalton Kincaid is on this list.... shut it off after that one
Insanity
Depending on position Josh Jacobs does feel like a value
I had Meyers last season. He did great.
question: if the 'average' tackle is basically a hip drop tackle, how will defensive players possibly adapt to the rule change 4:50
I can never click on Tee Higgins at that ADP
Are yahoo ranking whack? I’ve been doing Mock drafts on yahoo and Jonathan Taylor goes first round in 12 person drafts every time. Usually around pick 9-10.
Yahoo does their own rankings based on their in house experts. On Yahoo Etienne last year was an early 2nd rounder where on all other platforms he was 3-4th rounder. They were right.
@@scattau41 Interesting. I didn’t know that. Thank you for the reply. Do you happen to know if the yahoo rankings are trustworthy? Or should I use an alternate ranking system?
@@A_Hotdog_Guy You're welcome and yes I find them (generally) trustworthy. I would familiarize myself with the underdog/sleeper rankings then maybe listen to a yahoo fantasy football podcast or 2 to see where they are coming from and kind of balance the two in my own mind.
@@scattau41 I think that is a really good strategy. I’m gonna do that. Good luck this season!
If you're running hero RB, which is objectively the best strategy to run this season - grabbing an elite WR in round 1 and a guy like JT in round 2 is a smash. Fading JT in the first round, I'm all about it. Fading him past that seems silly when you know he's one of like 5 guys who will get as close to bellcow work as possible, even if A-Rich vultures him a bit.
As an aside - the mike williams fade might be the lowest hanging fruit of all time lol. Can we get a re-do on that one??? I feel cheated.
My zero or very low dudes: Adam Theilen, Tyler Lockett, Tony Pollard, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy, Allen Lazard, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Antonio Gibson, Kalil Shakir, Quentin Johnston.
I have zero of some of these guys!
@@theohiooutdoors2444 These are my zero guys
I love Pollard.
@@Nairby-SLA I can definitely see the allure at his price, he's the one that I may have to get a little more of.
Montgomery and Mostert are great pick-ups cuz they score most of the TDs
I've been taking X. LEGGET 15th round. For a bench stash.
I dont know man, i think JT is going at a good value. Early 2nd for a former 1.01 who's fully healthy now and like you said Trey Sermon is his backup, I see a bounce back year and early 2nd is solid.
Mine at each position are Mahomes, Achane, Olave and Pitts.
I make fantasy football videos too, check it out if you're interested
More swift exposure for me 🎉🎉
Mooney is a great late wr pick in bestball imo.
I love the constant evolution of fantasy football verbiage. It used to be a guys “stock” was high or low, then you had shares, then exposure, now it’s overweight / underweight 😂
I'm not necessarily against fading Legette. The offense would have to take such a leap and even if it does that might just mean Diontae was huge. For the offense to be so good to support both would be a nearly inconceivable leap. Some of the reasons you listed are a little vibes bassed tho lol. If we're worried about Mingo taking too much away then you just hate the Legette projection under any circumstances. Mingo's metrics across the board were god awful. If he's stealing snaps away then the bigger issue isn't Panthers dynamics, it's just that Legette is bad lmao.
I'm curious if there's a distinction for you that makes JT a near 0 at price versus Saquon. They seem like similar projections to me. High talent RBs with a capped ceiling on catches and goal line opportunities.
Henry is not a similar profile to J Taylor 🤷
One player keeper league:
J Taylor (round 7) or
Gibbs (round 4)
Taylor so easy
JT is going off this year
Agreed. Kinda has too.
How?
I have a chunk % of my teams with both sequan and JT on them. Can't wait for them to remind people what freak talannts they are 💰💰💰
I will probably get torched, but I have 24% Chase and 2.1% Tyreek...😂 I always go Chase over Hill.🙏
Hurts over Allen ?? 😅
I think Barkley takes points from Jalen , couple new online pieces too
I prefer prioritizing WR in the first two rounds. Then again, JT is more proven than achane, plus Barkley has Hurts as a vulture. I'd rather just avoid RB altogether unless I get the 1.1
Jakobi is one of my highest rostered.... Dude is just consistent to raise floors of teams.
I have avoided Nabers. Way too high for a rookie on an offense that was that bad and with Jones at QB still (although i think he's dropped a bit over then past a few weeks).
And Alvin Kamara. He looked nowhere near as explosive last season. I dont want to say hes lost a step, but he certainly looked it last season.
These were valid takes at the time but both have not aged well lol
I like Mike Williams. Rodgers likes bigger receivers especially on those back shoulder and fades. Red zone target, defenses are afraid of Wilson deep unlike Allen. Jacobi Meyers is going to loose work to Bowers and Tucker. The Raiders are a run first team that’s loaded at receiver.
Can he stay healthy?
@@Nairby-SLA at #132 I’m willing to risk it
Love when fantasy heads shake their heads no when the coach says they love a guy and say they’re gonna use him as a weapon 😂
Hurts doesn't "run" the ball inside the 10YD Line. That narrative should be put to rest and that stat is meaningless when comparing to a traditional RB. Hurts "runs" from the 1yd line with 2 guys pushing him forward and his OL perfecting giving him 1yd. Will be interesting to see if his efficiency on the tush push goes down sans Kelce. C is a pretty important position when you are running through the A gap every single time.
Agree on Swift but disagree on your Hurts comparison. Hurts was so successful “inside the 5” because they were all “tush pushes” from the 1 yard line.
Horrible RB’s have great seasons playing in Philadelphia. The All pro Center is gone so maybe there won’t be as much tush pushes, but we are brain dead to not understand how dominant Barkley could be in that offense
Ummmm no they don’t 😂
I’ve not taken CMC 1 single time. Over 75 drafts completed and I’ve never had the #1 pick lmao
They are going to draft these players, tell you not to, then take your money with them. Underdog is the greasiest business to pop up lately.
Mike Williams is my guy to avoid.
Reasonable. But with IR option, I would just let him sit. Thing is, I stream virtually everything that rates it. Every season players no one expected emerges at all positions.
Go watch the CBS guys “do not draft” list and take all of them. Your team will be good
Why are you guys drafting and in leagues already that's kinda crazy we still have 2 plus months till football injuries do happen
Not drafting JT in the second round is foolish at best. I could see passing on him but only if there’s a player that you believe has league winning potential
Yeah like if you got a shot at a potential top 8 receiving finisher like Marvin Harrison then sure, but don’t be passing on Jonathan Taylor for someone like Devonta Smith whose gonna get you no more than 230 ppr points max
Marvin Harrisson Jr.
I get the rookie fever, but damn, he is so expensive for a rookie that doesn’t make any sense to draft him up there…. Will be a amazing WR, no doubt, but for this price (WR 5-8) I am passing him every time. Even for dynasty, because I rather have Puka, NFL proven talent, than him.
Round 1-2 guys winks isn't drafting (my guess): Bijan, Saquon, Marvin, Olave, Deebo. I'm also low on MH Jr and Olave bc saints are hot ass garbage and MH Jr will probably be Wr 2 behind McBride. Winks definitely betting on Ayjuk staying too but I'm not sure about that🤔
Olave is a brick of gold for trades. Stash him for nothing else but stealing a first round and comparable position trade in the season.
@@unicorncupcakes7718Nobody trading a first fir Olave. If so, take it and run! I'll sell him for that if able.
I want none of those WRs over JT. If Pacheco or Henry are still there in the 3rd, I'll just take them too.
I've never gotten the "JK Dobbins has been 'really good' when healthy." He's had a few good moments, but he's so far removed from them at this point. He's always injured with MAJOR injuries. I mean, maybe he can come back & play. D'Onta Foreman overcame early career injuries, so it's possible. But please, stop with this "he's the most talented RB on the roster" nonsense. He might not even be the most talented, & he might be done in terms of the injuries he's suffered.
Leggette at his price in best ball is fine with me
JT is my keeper 7th rnd...I'm rubbing my hands like bird man. JT all day.