My Porsche 911 appreciated 10k EUR in last 2 years, while generating 16k in maintenance bills. Looking at prices of some Ferraris that require 8k maintenance job every 5 years and their age, total sum of maintenance is about 2x the asking price of the car. One need to be very lucky or terrible at math to do this. I just buy for enjoyment.
Jack - I'm still waiting for the price of a good Ferrari 456 Auto to fall so that my wife could buy it instead of her dream Range Rover Sport 5.0. I seriously have considered a Lancia Thema 8.32 before but the Mrs hates manual gearboxes, so that's not going to happen - lol. You are welcome in my viewing list always, but I'll not ever have an EV, hybrid maybe.
You probably have this problem because you don't drive it ... I've got a BMW 650i 2006 with 196k and drives like the day I collected it. .... and a Bentley Supersport Convertible I've had for 4 years and I've hardly spent any money on it. The trick? Drive your cars and change the oil very regularly!
@@tonyfischer-ev9ij The opposite, I drive it a lot :) Those were wear items or items that expire with time (gaskets, hoses...). Things I would call a good maintenance and some preventative jobs (injectors cleaning). It never broke down nor generated any issue on its own. But it is a complex old machine that requires a lot of labour to get to things (engine out) and parts are not exactly cheap. I also have BMW Z4 I personally took over 300k km, it too generated some serious bills over time and depreciated badly on top of that. As I say, wonderful hobby, but hardly a smart investment for most. I am happy you managed to enjoy some serious machines with modest bills, keep it up.
If you can buy a car that you’ve always wanted and enjoy driving it, you shouldn’t expect to make a profit. If you get out of it, what you put in, you’ve hit the jackpot in my opinion. Happy classic motoring 🚙 💨
Yes I consider that owning and enjoying a car and losing money on it is still worth it, as you get to experience that car and that is worth the cost to me. Same goes for many expensive hobbies.
If you’re classic car makes you smile every time you drive it yeah I’d say you got your moneys worth no amount of return on an investment can put that same smile on your face I never view cars is a way to make money unless it’s like a McLaren F1 or something super rare and expensive like that but even then I still would enjoy driving a McLaren F1 more than I would selling it and collecting the money it would make them besides a proper car enthusiast to looks at cars as a hobby that is something to have fun with not an investment now on the flipside a McLaren F1 would provide enough money to buy other enthusiast cars to have fun with so I guess there’s a gray area there were also the only way you can daily drive and properly McLaren F1 is if you’re a Billionaire like Elon Musk because a tuneup on that car alone cost about five grand and then tires that’s probably gonna be another 5 to 10 grand so you really have to be mega wealthy to enjoy that car any length of time I’d probably rather buy a Porsche 911 Turbo or a Porsche GT3 or something like that like a 996 generation early 2000s and also not go bankrupt during the Sunday drive
You’ve raised some absolutely great points. As an owner of a 1983 Mercedes, I can also say that the number of mechanics who can competently work on my car is also dwindling as they retire which will makes things quite challenging. On the other hand if inflation keeps soaring classic cars might be seen as some kind of inflation hedge. We are going through some very volatile times that seem to defy all predictions.
I have a 1989 560 SL in Las Vegas and have one of two good auto repair shops who can work on it and repair with OEM parts. I enjoy this car daily. We sure get a lot of compliments, don’t we? 👍🏻😊
@@mikemccormick8115 Honestly I think the 80’s Mercedes are probably the best group of cars ever made. And massive respect to you for daily driving a 560SL. Hopefully kids will see it and understand what a real car should be.
All good points. Another factor regarding the “Youth interest” is that they didn’t grow up “Wrenching” on the “Affordable cars” available to them at driving age like we did (Gen X). I asked my son (Gen Z) recently, “When was the last time you were late because your car wouldn’t start?” His answer, “Never.” “Besides if it does I have you to fix it.” 🤦🏻
I find this particularly sad... I would be considered Millennial and I still grown-up interested in cars and working on them etc. I already struggled to get insurance and car, but because I was brought-up with belief that this is required in life I persevered, paid thousands for insurance and I got my car and experienced amazing things and freedoms. But I am looking at kids now Gen-Z, Gen-Y ... they are not interested in the cars because on one hand it is not cool anymore, but on other hand they simply have no realistic chance of driving them before they are 30. Insurance is so ridiculously expensive now that nobody is insuring anything at 17 and driving itself isn't even enjoyable... it is just traffic and speed traps everywhere... Even if you get to drive the car, then there is nowhere to go, all parking removed, LTNs everywhere, so what is the point of driving 10 miles, of then you have to park 10 miles away from where you wanted to go and walking back... may as well just get an uber in the first place... honestly more pain than it is worth... and if people didn't become interested into something by the time they are 30, then they won't get interested into it.
I bought my 93 RX-7 in 2005 or so for 6000 US dollars. It is now worth nearly ten times that. Sure I put about $30K into it over the years, but I've also been enjoying it and driving the sht out of it for almost 20 years now. It was never an investment though, but more of a dream car for me. Speaking of which, love your channel and I'm sure a lot of us would love more 90's Japanese car content. That really was a golden age for Japanese cars...RX-7, 300ZX, NSX, MR2/Supra, 3000GT, etc.
Sensible analysis; fully agree. One thing you didn't mention is that in the future the number of mechanics and specialists will decrease with consequent increased difficulty in finding them and higher costs. A bit like finding a mechanical clock repairer today.
Plus the ever more complicated nature of cars and their electronics. It is already difficult to find electronics for some cars from the 90's, as these specialized components for a certain car, or set of cars was only made for a number of years. I remember reading somewhere that even BMW was desperately looking for old ECU components to fix M1 cars.
@@heiner71 from my understanding the BMW M1 has a quite rare Magneti Marelli ignition system, in part because BMW worked with several Italian companies when building that car and Bosch weren't quite ready with their own system. At least the circuit board layout for the ignition is available online, not sure about the components. The M1 was from 1978 and things haven't got much easier. Servicing the McLaren' F1 supercar needs a specific Compaq laptop to work with an interface card from the 1990s - at least that was true a few years ago, maybe McLaren have a new system since then.
@peyiots This is one thing that bugs me about those who choose to convert classics to electric power. They're effectively hastening the demise of the infrastructure for the rest of us.
Most people I know who own classic vehicles do most of the work themselves. I suppose that gets more difficult with something as complex as a Cosworth but is not a problem with 1970s and older stuff.
Man, you are killing my marriage ! Just a couple of weeks ago I showed up at home driving a Giulia 1300 super and the question was "why do you need this, when you have a 1750 already!?" - INVESTMENT ! :)
Totally agree with your outlook, Jack. It's the right time of our own lives to enjoy the cars that bring us joy, but to properly enjoy them as they were intended, not for financial reasons.
Really enjoyed this, the ‘generational’ idea is very interesting and thought provoking. I agree that younger people overall are probably less interested in cars compared to say 20-30 years ago. However if my local McDonalds, Gregs, Petrol Station, KFC and town centre are anything to go by, cars still have a massive appeal amongst a hardcore of 18-25 year olds. Personally I think there’s going to be a section of the older generation of petrolhead 40/50 something drivers like me who will never buy into electric no matter how hard the government push it. Therefore from now on in I believe the best and final generations of pure petrol performance cars will become more and more highly sought after as time goes on, even though the government will make them more and more expensive to run and will tax their owners to death.
Yup, agree. I'll personally never buy an EV, on principle. The more governments force feed stuff to people, the more sure you can be that it is 100% wrong. Time will tell.
I suspect there may come a time when government will simply ban ICE cars from public roads completely. This will happen if and once the majority of cars in use are EVs.
Covid had a huge affect on used yacht prices, they went up a good 30%. I forecast that when the reality of the costs of ownership versus the amount of use, prices will drop dramatically
That happened to pretty much all of those "grown man toys" you can spend time with alone like bicycles to cameras, vintage audio equipment, motorbikes, cars, watches, home electronics, etc. even houses. Some people lost their jobs during covid, but most, especially middle aged to older folks with higher income just sat at home while money piled up in their bank accounts. Here in germany classic car prices first took a significant hit in 2020 when people thought we would slide in a massive economic collapse, people stopped buying and alot of these "my W124 convertible is an investment"-dads got cold feet and wanted to sell. I was tempted to buy a neglected 924 with a friend which suddenly started to pop up left and right for 500-800€ but didn't. As soon as it became clear that a global virus epidemic was just boring af and wouldn't lead to total collaps as all of those zombie movies had told us prices started to climb both due to an increase in demand but also people who were primarily interested in investing their money rather than the object itself.
I saw photos from some Stag owners club meeting the other month. Most of the owners seemed well into retirement. You don't see so many people in their 20s & 30s wanting one. I think many (but not all) just don't have the same connection to cars as we did as you can talk to the world via a laptop. We had to drive to a small part of the world for socialising.
3 years ago I was considering buying a 355 manual, only for fun. They were around 65k in Europe. I did not. They are now between 110 and 130k. Within the same period I lost 5% with a 'safe' and not funny at all financial investment... Trees don't grow up to the sky but they are currently still growing....
I think this time around you might be right - the Classic Car Market bubble is going to burst at some point. I totally get the generational shift, those that grew up with Morris 8's etc are not looking to buy a Cosworth and those looking for a Cosworth are not interested in a Morris 8. The same is going to happen to the fast Fords, those that grew up with them will grow older and the next generation will have little association with a Cosworth Escort. A few years ago I purchased a Continental R, not as an investment, more because I really thought they were a piece of motoring history. I also bought a Mini Cooper, not because they are great to drive (which they seldom are by the way) but more because it's another piece of motoring history. Mine are not investments and doubtless an Aston Martin DB6 will always sell better but now in my late 60's I just want to enjoy cleaning and polishing my classics. They are street art to me...
I love my my BMW 116 diesel( quite pokey) and enjoying the average mpg of 50 mpg. Being as I'm days away from being 60, I'm giving a lot of thought to getting a Toyota MR2. I know I'm getting close to the last car I will be able to drive- my age, cars available, combustible fuel being phased out by 2030/2035, 15 minute cities and all that. I'm getting that MR2. And it will be enjoyed. Cheers, Jeff. Cool vid.
Lucky you. I'm still in my early 30s and absolute love my 3 cars. If someone from the future would come and tell me that I would drive them and only them until I retire, I would be a very happy man. Sadly, I probably have less than 10 more years with them and the second half of my life will likely be without ICE cars altogether. Makes me sad in advance. I wish I could drive them until my 60s... but won't happen, probably.
Very sound advice and I agree. I have been a long term collector, but, I have been lucky enough to afford the cars that I wanted at the time to drive. I have watched the prices of these cars over the years since the early 1970's go up and down like yoyo's. To me it doesn't matter because they are cars that I really enjoy owning and still driving and never intend to part with them. The other thing to bare in mind is the ever increasing cost of maintenance and repairs, if you add in the cost of this upkeep over the years any real net gain may not be as much as you think. Cars I have, 246 Dino Spyder, 365GT 2+2, 308GT4, 308GTS (early fiberglass body car. Yes I have a Peugeot 205GTi, Elan Sprint DHC, Esprit S2, XJS V12 Convertible with some TWR mods. I bought these cars all roughly under a year or two old and saved a lot of money on them at the time. The Ferrari's I bought during and around the 70's oil crisis when no one wanted gas guzzlers. So I am the second owner of all of them. I have all of the bills and dealer stamps since they were new, and let me assure you the cost of keeping them all in drivable key start condition is not cheap and not a matter to overlook in your selection. These are some of the cars that appealed to me no matter what others thought or whether they would increase in price or not. I still have that philosophy.
@@oldbasted Charles I love driving all of them for different reasons. The 246 when I was younger, then I grew to love the 308GT4, I felt it held the road and handled better than even the 308GTB, but does not have the appearance and charisma of the others. The GTB with its plastic body has a sort of boominess to it which can be distracting. The Elan sprint is fabulous but at my height it's hard to get in and out of. The 205GTi is just the bees knees to me in nearly everyway particularly as a daily driver. As I have aged the XJS is just fabulous, smooth and quiet and comfortable and with the TWR steering and suspension changes it handles and holds the road second to none. I didn't have any engine mods.
Just out of curiosity, are you aware you could have conveyed the same message without writing down a list of things you own? It really doesn't change anything apart from the impression you make (not in a good way).
I started using a classic as a daily driver and now I compare to owning a "new" car instead. It's not depreciating anymore, and I drive a much more fun car every day. The owning costs and maintenance is higher, but most of that I would spend on a second car as a hobby anyway.
@@RobinCapper After a year with a 20-years-old car and having to visit a shop last minute before a longer trip because something's started sounding funny I kind of get it. Depreciation is the cost of peace of mind and many people are willing to buy it when they have the means, otherwise we wouldn't have any classic cars to begin with ;)
Not sure if any cars are depreciating that much these days. New cars are so expensive that they are becoming out of reach for a lot of people so there is high demand for good used ones. Also cars made in the last 10 years or so are not as reliable because they are using inferior materials like plastic manifolds and thermostat housings.
If you are not being affected by depreciation, then the average cost is lower than a generic VW Golf. The depreciation on Golfs has been crazy because they are commuter cars. They are everywhere, undesirable, and once they get dumped on the market, it's hard to convince anyone to buy one.
Jack, a very well presented and excellent 'lecture' on the state of the classic car market. What you say makes alot of common sense and is very good advice for anyone interested in classic cars, young or old. No one can really predict what will happen but the factors you mention are all very relevant. Thank you for posting great RUclips uploads.
Unfortunately the first scrappage scheme killed alot of 80's and mostly 90's future classics off such as Vauxhall Calibras etc. If your lucky to find a nice Nova GSi it's well over 10 grand.
The prices of 1960’s Shelby Mustangs began wildly climbing in the 1980’s. I remember one car mechanic who had bought one and sent it to a shop for restoration, then the economy started weakening in the late 80’s and the cost of restoration was going to equal or exceed the car’s value once finished. I didn’t find out if it did actually get restored as I stopped delivering auto parts to deliver pizza.
You can see the generational thing very clearly with motorcycle collecting. Up to about 10 years ago the hot properties were old British bikes, now it's more recent Italians and Japanese bikes of the 80/90s.
Great video. I’m no longer a classic car enthusiast but I do love a classic motorcycle and can see exactly the same generational effect in that market. I grew up with (and still have) 1950’s to early-70’s British bikes which are now quite rapidly declining in value while 1970’s and 1980’s Japanese bike prices are rising as the following generation washes through. Only a handful of years ago the majority of stalls at bike auto-jumbles were British parts, now they are in the minority. The generational effect is powerful and plays in both supply (“without reserve from deceased estate”) and demand.
I think your right. The values of some of these classic cars cannot continue to rise. Fast Fords are a perfect example. The bubble will burst eventually. It’s just a matter of when. I also agree with the generation theory as most younger people are just not interested in them. You should buy a classic car with your heart and enjoy them whilst you still can. It’s the investors that are ruining it for the genuine enthusiasts.
Similar thing happened in the early 90s, the cost of classic cars went through the roof only to crash a couple of years later. I remember a classic car showroom in Portsmouth that had a Stag for £30k and a Healey 3000 for £75k which were hugely inflated at the time
Great video Jack. No matter how much you tell some people though they just can't see that you won't even be able to give most of these cars away in 10-20 years time. Buy what you love and enjoy it as much as you can. Like you say the rarest and most special cars will always be highly valuable but more as art pieces rather than vehicles.
Brilliant vid Jack... I agree with most of what you've said and as you mentioned, it's the relatively mundane classics we're talking about here, not the exotica. In terms of mundane stuff, the bargain classic at the moment has to be the E46. I have an immaculate low mileage manual 2003 325i Sport which is worth very little for what is a phenomenal car. I'm watching what happens to these with interest as they could well be the herald for the downturn. Having said that, I'm an A-Level teacher in a secondary school and you'd be surprised how many kids are actually very interested in car ownership... not only that but they actually lust after cars like the E46. Literally every day I'm being asked how much it would be to insure the E46... so both of us may well be wrong here. The overriding message though is don't plan your retirement around the increasing value of a Mk2 RS2000.
I think you are pretty much spot on with your assessment, especially when you consider that there are ongoing costs for things like insurance, storage, etc. And, the components of an automobile will deteriorate with time even if it is not driven.
I bought a low mileage Impreza RB5 at the start of lockdown. It's nearly doubled in value! Having said that, the best bit about early lockdown was how empty the roads were! You're probably right about prices in the very long term but I wouldn't expect any crash for at least 20 years.
Well said, and a fine display of humility to boot! I have two comments - first, I have owned a 1981 Porsche 930 for over 28 years…I love the car, and often walk through the garage just to look at it. However, it is apparent to me that younger generations are unimpressed…this is not the car they fantasize about owning (as I did in my youth). So to your point, the future value of the car is far from guaranteed. Second, while I am under no illusions that the current stratospheric value of these cars will continue, I do find it most useful when justifying to my wife the always-growing and numbingly costly pile of maintenance receipts that I have collected over the years!!
@@robc8892 Unfortunately not. I have the perfect story relevant to this, with a 930 no less. Last year I was at a local car show and a gentleman with his small son and myself were admiring a striking blue 930 outside. The kid, frustrated, said to his dad "This is NOTHING. There is a Performante over there!!" And dragged his dad away. Funnier still, that Performante I had already walked past and gave it no second looks.
I think you are completely right and for the right reasons. Check out the classic motorcycle world for the same effect somewhat magnified - the boom in post-war British bikes looks to be over, they are not really desirable to people in their 50's and 60's, they want early Japanese bikes now so both the numbers for sale are up and the prices they are making have, I think, topped out and might even be coming down due to lack of demand (I saw a Vincent Rapide sell for £25k the other week. Big money but I know someone who paid the same amount for one, in very similar condition, more than 10 years ago and thought that was a bargain....🤔) I used to know a pre-war vintage bike specialist and he had a pretty good business employing a couple of old fella's (like himself) selling bikes and parts all over the country (and the world) but the last time I saw him (probably 15 years ago) he was very negative about his business. "No one wants pre-war bikes any more. All I get are phone calls from the children of the people I have been selling bikes to wanting to sell them back to me now" He closed not many years later. But who wants to spend big money on a 1930's Scott Flying Squirrel or BSA J12 now?
100% agree, all the hype now for 1980s cars and bikes, are because people who were teenagers in the 1980s are now late 40s and mid 50s. Once that generation hits their 70s who is going to want a 1985 escort xr3i.
I own a very desirable motorcycle (a '94 CBR 900RR) and I definitely agree with what he said. Right now, collectors are paying high dollar for a prestine one. But when those people that remember seeing one for the first time in a magazine are 60 themselves, they won't be interested in buying one anymore; and the new generation won't remember the first time they seen one when it first came out. Sort of like a dead language that noone alive ever knew-they won't know it, they won't miss it, and so how could they appreciate it. As I am writing this, I guess I could look at the top bike of the mid 80's or an amazing bike from the 70's and see what their values are. As the fans age or lose interest, the demand decreases.
I bought a Ferrari 328GTS in 2000 for £33k. I sold it in 2006 for £25k. The car was £39k new in 1987 and during the late 80s car boom it sold for £110K. My guess is it's worth £65k now. Given the running costs it isn't really an investment but obviously fun to own. Prices have moved around over the decades a lot so who knows. Something else that may affect future value is the massive reductions in speed limits we are seeing with tight enforcement. It is taking the pleasure out of sports cars though won't affect people who buy cars and put them into storage (a sin in my book). Totally agree with your points about generational effects.
Thanks for this. It's true. Some of us remember the boom and bust of classics between 89 and 90. Back then it was E types and Cooper S. Took over 20 years to recover. These are good lessons for hype and life generally. It'll be recent 911s and rolex watches next
Totally agree with your point of view but I guess one additional factor was that at some point, many of the 70-80-90's cars went dirt cheap, which doesn't seem to be the case with current aging "cool cars" (like 2000-2010's "interesting" cars are not devaluating as much). I guess it has to do with the fact that there's less and less brand new "cool cars" sold.
Your so right in everything you say , i've just bought a classic Lambretta TV175 that needs restoration but because i love the styiling and looks i will spend money on the restoration . I don't care what its worth when i'm finished its a project for me and my passion. My job is painting and repairing cars day to day and also work on classsic cars. I have a savvy customer who deals in classic cars and has sold most off the cars he owns . Its only metal too him and money .
I remember buying my Lancia delta Evo many years ago just because it was the car I always wanted. I still have it and can’t believe what they are selling for now.
Excellent points Jack. There is also the inflation aspect of restoring classic cars. As it becomes more expensive to restore a car, labour, chroming, painting etc the value of a good tidy or original example increases by default. The generation aspect is correct but for really unique or special cars this doesn't apply hence 1960's Jaguar E Type or 1950's Facel Vega.
I am old enough to remember the arse falling out of the classic car market a couple of times. £100k Jags in the 80's worth £20k later and many others. A Ford Sierra is a Ford Sierra which ever way you look at it. I owned many "fast" Fords years back. They were fun at the time as I was in my 20's early 30's but compared to modern cars they are rubbish. poorly made cheap cars. How they can have improved with age is beyond me?
I remember that video from 6 years ago. I agree with your thoughts though, as it is simply the nostalgia that put's a price on it. When those people are gone, who will remember them and then the values depreciates. Cool video.
Jack great thought provoking stuff. Just showed it to my 15 and 13 year old (boy and girl) - they smiled and both quickly agreed that “Jack does not get our generation at all…….” I am not sure I do either but they can both be at home with environmental issues as well as the internal combustion engine and the character and fun of a classic from a various decades - they are also not alone as I have noticed how their friends both younger and older react, rationalise and get excited. I think it is complex, with multiple layers, but feel your thesis is a great starter for a wide debate where views will equally be very diverse. Thanks again.
Without doubt. A real classic will be beautiful to look at and widely admired when seen parked. That Ford is, let's be honest, an ugly car and I bet almost nobody other than 40 years+ petrol heads would give it a second glance. The performance is what made it cool and these days even that is mediocre by today's standards.
To be fair, there are some very good car investments but you have to choose very carefully. Plus you get to enjoy the investment as a car too rather than it just being a number on a balance sheet. I do remember one of your videos a few years ago that said car prices were going to fall……but they didn’t!
I think you have got it more or less right this time. Whilst insurance companies (UK) generally consider a 20 year old car as a classic many may not agree with that. People may say 'ah that's their excuse for raising the price of cover'. People may be right and there is a debate as to what can be called a classic (with regard to more 'modern ' cars) but I suspect that debate will just rumble on. Few of us will be able to buy a rare vintage Bentley for example so yes life is too short so go and buy a car you will enjoy as you say Jack. Thank you Jack for a very interesting video.👍👍
Hi Jack, we’ve spoken before regarding my 308 GT4, which was a progression from 3 Esprits, 3 RS Turbos, 2 XR2’s.. etc. The GT4 was bought cheap but turned quickly into a full restoration. Although still miles off and thousands and thousands have been spent, 15 years in, I hope I can finally finish it at some point an drive it with petrol available. My sister 5 years younger has little interest in it, and we quickly realised a long time ago, our car choices are so different. So yes, totally agree with your video. I eventually sold a S1 RS Turbo for £1300 with an MOT and rebuilt gearbox, now what would it be worth?!
I hate everything your saying but I know your absolutely right. I own 20 classic motorcycles. And less people are riding motorcycles. The next generation aren’t interested. So they won’t be sort after. And will fall in value. Thank for telling me what I already knew. But it’s ruined my day hearing someone else say it. Cheers
Allot of collecting is the same. Hifi, watches, vinyl, cars, bikes, .. nostalgia driven. There are different types of collectors, speculators and those with emotional connection. Great vid, as usual Jack
One point not mentioned is appreciation on cars is not subject to cgt. Once the masses follow a trend and prices start rising, it is self sustaining. That is until such time market sentiment changes in a wholesale way (usually from a better alternative coming to the fore)
Your absolutely correct in your analysis. Daimler darts were really expensive when I was young in the late 1980's. Whilst they still go for alot they have not appreciated in fact they could be coming down in price as the people who want them die!
I have a 1993 W124 300E bought last year in Colombia. Cost in equivalent USD was $6,600. Here there are not very many W124's, let alone for sale, and some now are being advertised around USD7-8,000. Not a massive increase but not bad for a daily driver when new cars drop in value by massive amounts. The other benefit of my MB is that it was the last MB manufactured with NO computers.
Totally agree about the generation gap 🤔 Also i think the prices of 80s and 90s cars grew because of those dreaded scrappage schemes 🤔 A lot of good Quality cars were scrapped leaving a shortage in the market in my opinion 👍
The 2009 scrappage scheme list is publicly available and it's one of the saddest things I've read! On top of that, didn't the scrapped cars require a valid MOT to qualify?
@@JamesGadbury Yes i saw some of those cars on the list it was very sad 🤔 As far as i can remember I don’t think a car needed to have an mot to qualify . But I could be wrong. I saw a Channel here on RUclips and they went to a huge compound somewhere in England and it was full of these cars . Think the Channel was called exploring with fighters He uploaded it a few yrs ago . There were lots of cars there from classic minis to XR3is and pug gtis Crazy 😜 If you can’t find the channel just type in scrappage scheme cars and it should pop up 😉👍
Indeed. I've always bought cars that I either liked, or fulfiiled a specfic daily need. As I recall from the the late 1980's, 'classic car' prices became very inflated, words like 'investment' and 'patina' were all the rage. Jaguar Mk2's, the archetypal bank robber's getaway car, fetched well over £20,000. Not the 2.4 versions, or the Daimler 2.5 V8's of course, they were the unloveds. Had to be 3.4, or better, the 3.8. Then the recession of 91/92 arrived. Couple of years on from the £20,000 + highs, you could buy a really nice Mk2 for £7,000.
I have a career in fine art valuation and all I can say is that there have been people collecting fine art for centuries. I don't see that stopping any time soon. I think with cars it will be the more exotic ones, the convertibles and coupes with the more powerful engines continuing to appreciate. They won't be driven much. The more ordinary models will eventually decrease in value.
Interesting video. I am one of the many people who have been priced out of the classic car market so it would be good news for me if prices drop. The most recent classic I bought was a 1976 Toyota Hiace coachbuilt camper which cost me £310 with a full MoT. I think that was in 2008. Previous to that I had an MGBGT and a Riley 1.5 each for £1000.
I understand young people are being encouraged to be more aware of the environment but I struggle to see how enthusiasm is dwindling for younger people. I’m 23 and bought my first classic last year, a 1989 BMW 325i and it’s the most fun car I’ve owned. And it seems a lot of people who I see out on the road and at shows driving similar cars are between 18-30. I think with all the advances in new car technology with lane keep assist, forward collision warnings, drive by wire controls and touchscreen everything drivers are feeling isolated and less in control. And with all that in mind, some people are growing to appreciate the joys of a well engineered car that is genuinely intuitive to interact with.
The smelly old petrol cars that are made of real metal (pre-plastic fantastic) will hold their value, especially rare and beautiful sports cars. Best years: 1930s and 1960s. For those on a budget: MG, Triumph, etc. That's my two pennies' worth on the subject.
I agree 100%. Buy cars if you enjoy them. You can not really buy time with anykinda money so you want to fill your time with good, fulfilling experiences that you want to remember. That is the content of this movie we call life.
You right ,the younger generation are not interested in classic cars and I find it sad 😢, they are to busy inhaling nitrous oxide and spending hours on TikTok,Instagram and Facebook .
I think this happened in the 80's. I had a magazine that listed many cars prices. Before and after. There was a Ferrari that was sold for 3 mil +. Later it went a little over 1 mil. You are spot on Jack.
Yep, Jack and I are old enough to remember when E-Types were selling for 100k in 80s money. And people were stupid enough to pay over retail for new cars! 😂
i`ts all about intrest in history, my oldest car was from 1934, my last car is from 1971, i collect old stuff, old weapons, artifacts, even from way back 1700, sometimes, even when you were never told about this period, you just lean to this ( i call it romantic time ) but it was far from that.. just old spirit i guess.
So true ! A car is a depreciating asset - as is a house. Entropy cannot be prevented. When parts for service are no more, neither is the car... in New Zealand, happily , a 1990's Alfa is cheap - provided you can work on it yourself. And I can...
@Number27 Excellent forecast. Just found your channel. I am a car lover and old. I’m in the U.S. I call it the Model T effect. Ford Model T’s were very collectable in the 1950’s and 1960’s by the folks that grew up with them. Sometime later, not sure when, the prices tanked. Because of your observation, the “generational” effect. And yes, the true rare and classic cars will be investments. Just watched the Mecum auction in Kissimmee, Florida and the Barrett-Jackson. The market is possibly different here as a casual observer prices seem at least stable for the average stuff. It will crack though, sooner or later.
I'm happy to see in the comments that we're all in the same boat! I've poured about 40k in the past couple of months for the complete restoration of my Mondial QV which has immense sentimental value (it was my dad's car since before I was born), and could maybe sell it today for about that. It's not a financial investment, classic cars are an emotional and memory investment!
Totally agree with you! I bought a Jaguar XK8 some years ago and there are many people telling me that this will be a future classic and prices will rise. Well, maybe they will, maybe not - to be honest: I don't care. As other commenters already mentioned: prices will never rise in a way to pay my maintenance bills. And even so: I don't care, because the car pays off a driving-fun-dividend every day. That's why I "invested" in it and to me that's the only reason one should "invest" in a (future-)classic car: buy the car, you like to own, drive it, have fun with it as long as it's still possible - that's worth a million times more than any profit.
You're right of course. I bought my -58 220S and my -59 Belvedere for pocketchange back in the seventies. 10-20 years ago they where worth more than today. Not to mentioning my friends who went for Standards, Borgwards, Ramblers, Panhards,FIATs such brands that's today sells for the same pocketchange as way back when. But one has to count all the fun I had with my cars over the years and all the friends I made.Then it's totally worth it even though I know I will not get much the day I'm to old to drive.
I believe you are absolutely right. 10 years from now the market and the prices will be very much reduced. I buy and keep classic cars because I love to drive them and look at them.
My NAS (North American Spec) Land Rover Defender has kept going up in value. It is such a basic vehicle, with no electronics except for the fuel injection system. I've done all the maintenance on it, which is mostly routine oil changes (I only drive it a couple thousand miles a year). Vintage 4x4s such as Land Cruisers and Land Rovers have a timeless charm and utility which appeal to all generations, especially as modern day SUVs have all morphed into amorphous blobs loaded with electronic gadgets.
I think you’re spot on with what you say in this video, I’ve been saying the same thing for a while. The prices people are asking for some extremely dull cars is laughable. I understand why that’s happening as prices of more exciting cars go up they drag up the rest. There’s also the Goodwood factor….. Austin A35 prices are ridiculous mainly because they now race them at Goodwood. Unfortunately the classic car scene has also become “fashionable” so there are a lot of pretenders mingling about that will fall by the wayside when it becomes unfashionable again.😊
This echos my thoughts exactly. I'm in the market for an E Type but the current values are making me jittery, i'm in my 50's and most people my age are now pumping money into Capris and RS2000's. A lot of the Jags for sale have been so for a very long time and thanks to the 1980's classic car boom I think there are more cars out there than buyers so I have decided to sit it out for a while and just watch the values. Maybe a risky strategy as I could get left behind if values continue to climb but equally I may get better value for money if they ease. Only time will tell......
Wise words Jack ! As you say, once us generation Xs have croaked it, or are too old to drive, values of 80s cars will dip… that’s still 10-20 years away I guess
I think people that buy classic cars purely to mothball them and sell them at a profit are just selfish and they take a away the opportunity for people who wish to own a car they dreamt of owning and wish to use it and enjoy it . I see a guy sometimes in a red jaguar convertible on summers days he cruises around the estate it's a council estate in Stoke on Trent in his golf style clothes and flat cap smoking big cigar , I love seeing him, you can see he's living his dream in those moments and buying cars as a means to make money just seems bizzare it's like buying a Stradivarius violin and then putting in a cabinet never to played again and that's sad cars are for driving they aren't ornaments or dinky toys brand new in undamaged packaging .
You are correct. Also parts availability for cars creeping 30 to 40 years are getting slim, in some instances you'll have to find alternative parts that you can use if you can even find them. My friend still drives a mid 90s honda cr-v. Honda no longer manufactures the oem parts and a solenoid for that car runs $200. Also the new generation might not even want to work or have the know how to work on older vehicles, a lot of old timers who knew the tricks and tips of the trade are taking that information to the afterlife, all that knowledge gone.
I would add that as parts become more difficult to find, there is a critical value below which cars, even for enthusiasts, become "uneconomical" to keep on the road. This critical value also goes up and down with interest rates, but inversely. So that value is higher now than it was, so there is less "headroom" between the market price today ( coming down ) and this economic-to-repair price ( which is rising )
The other problem here in the USA is the functional utility of driving a classic on modern roads. I drove a friends 1933 Alfa Romeo 8c 2300 on a classic car rally and it was pretty terrifying driving that car in modern suburban traffic on a Saturday morning. I have the same problem my Lotus 7 and Lancia Zagato. The cars are small and people texting and driving in their big SUV tend not to see you and I have had a couple close calls. The Lotus 7 now is track only. With safety issues and a sea of lager cars I think many classics from the 60's -80's will lose their utility as fun cars to drive in normal traffic as cars from the 1920's -50's have lost that utility.
I think you're right in the long term. One thing worth noting is that, once fuel prices are ridiculous, anyone who still wants a petrol classic will be more drawn to something like a 205 GTI than to a Mustang, for example. I'm sure it won't stop the real enthusiasts from buying and driving the car they want though!
I remember seeing in person a Lamborghini Miura for sale for $19,000.00 in Los Angeles. Yep, less than $20k. I remember thinking, that's not so outrageous, I'll get one in a few years. Lol - I didn't.
I hope you're right Jack as there are so many modern classics I've fancied which have risen in value so much that they're simply out of reach now. Things like the Integra type R, Clio williams and even the 306 rallye, based on your favourite GTI6, which was only worth two grand as recently as 2015/16 but now is beyond the ten grand mark. Cars should be bought to be enjoyed and if they appreciate that is just an incidental bonus.....i'm hoping some sanity might reappear in the next few years. In the meantime my tip is maybe buy a 2000s soon to be classic like a focus ST170. Still cheap and unlikely to depreciate further.....
Yeah. I have a Skoda Octavia vrs MK1 in red sitting in the garage. Used for high days and holidays with 51000miles. Cost 3k about 5yrs ago. Can't see it going lower in price than that.
The Mitsubishi GTO has been largely unaffected by crazy price increases. Great value car, and something you wouldn't have experienced if the other cars you were looking at were affordable. Buy what you can afford and you will have a better experience than beating yourself up over a missed chance to poach that unicorn.
Thanks. As far as I'm concerned this is the only rational description I've heard of what has happened the reasoning and what may or is likely to happen into the future.
Totally agree. I have felt for many years that collecting anything but the most desirable and expensive is not a long term investment. The younger generations are not interested and with no one to buy values will collapse. Antique furniture is a perfect example of the drop in demand and prices.
Thanks. yes, I agree with most of what you say. Here in Australia we will still need cars for longer - public transport is not up to the job. Let's see how battery technology works but I also think that hand in hand with the lack of interest in cars among the new generation is the fact that most cars are made to be disposed of now. I am trying to get rid of one now and am back to driving my 1964 Landrover daily in preference to the time bomb of a 2015 Renault van, which was built to be built and sold, not maintained.
Good video and you bring up good points. Now I'm not into the cars you mention, however last summer I bought myself a low mileage 1998 Y87 garage queen Firebird for less than $10k. Two months ago my insurance company called me to go over or entire policy. They bumped the coverage of my Firebird to $15k. I wasn't expecting this at all. Being that it's a Firebird, many younger people don't know what my car is as they never, or rarely, heard of it. I understand the cars you mention are classes above my type of car, but it's still very interesting watching this play out.
As a pro car-trader for more than 2 decades I fully agree with you.. But I have to say one more reason why these classic cars will NOT raise in value forever, and that is the simple fact that in a "few" years it will be impossible for the owners to drive them legally on public roads. Why? Because we will have self-driving cars sooner than we want to accept and there will be NO possible way to find any petrol or diesel tankstation.. Use your mind guys, classic or vintage cars will be for exhibitions only.
The Generational aspect was a great observation which had never occurred to me. Something else to be considered is the ongoing costs of looking after ones investment: storage, maintenance and insurance.
You make some good points especially the generation aspect, one thing you didn't mention is the devaluation of the pound, so in the future you will need more pounds to buy the same things hence why cars look expensive but aren't really.
Appreciate the thought provoking video. A counter-point (in a longer timeframe), ICE cars and particularly nice/special/unique ones may be coveted in the future when only EVs are sold new (and possibly with all sorts of intrusive software/controls). The remaining ICE vehicles not otherwise scrapped may represent a level of freedom, and also desirability just for being otherwise rare.
I follow your logic here too. I'm also secretly hoping for a classic car market cool off like the one experienced 30-ish years ago. As with anything like this, the market is flooded with speculators where the power has been almost entirely with the sellers, which has priced many of the 'enthusiasts' out, many of which were responsible for restoring and maintaing classics, let alone building owner communities to share knowledge. Within the last 5 years I sold what would be a modern classic which, at the time of selling it, was increasing in value (we're not talking serious money here). The buyer who ended up taking the car said he was suspicious of the car being slightly under-priced in comparison to other seemingly worse examples for sale, but that was deliberate. I wanted the car to be accessible to a real enthusiast whilst still breaking even on what I had spent on making the car much better. I felt much happier doing this as opposed to taking advantage of someone's wallet just because I could. That's what real classic car ownership is about to me - making it accessible so long as you don't bankrupt yourself in the process.
I agree with your thoughts, Jack, particularly on the Generational aspect. Derek at Matthewsons is often heard commenting that the market has fallen on the pre-war stuff for exactly this reason and the same is being seen in the classic bike market - values have fallen for the BSA Gold Stars and the like while 70s and 80s bikes from the Japanese manufacturers are seeing values increase.
My Porsche 911 appreciated 10k EUR in last 2 years, while generating 16k in maintenance bills. Looking at prices of some Ferraris that require 8k maintenance job every 5 years and their age, total sum of maintenance is about 2x the asking price of the car. One need to be very lucky or terrible at math to do this. I just buy for enjoyment.
Jack - I'm still waiting for the price of a good Ferrari 456 Auto to fall so that my wife could buy it instead of her dream Range Rover Sport 5.0. I seriously have considered a Lancia Thema 8.32 before but the Mrs hates manual gearboxes, so that's not going to happen - lol. You are welcome in my viewing list always, but I'll not ever have an EV, hybrid maybe.
You probably have this problem because you don't drive it ... I've got a BMW 650i 2006 with 196k and drives like the day I collected it. .... and a Bentley Supersport Convertible I've had for 4 years and I've hardly spent any money on it. The trick? Drive your cars and change the oil very regularly!
@@tonyfischer-ev9ij The opposite, I drive it a lot :) Those were wear items or items that expire with time (gaskets, hoses...). Things I would call a good maintenance and some preventative jobs (injectors cleaning). It never broke down nor generated any issue on its own. But it is a complex old machine that requires a lot of labour to get to things (engine out) and parts are not exactly cheap. I also have BMW Z4 I personally took over 300k km, it too generated some serious bills over time and depreciated badly on top of that. As I say, wonderful hobby, but hardly a smart investment for most. I am happy you managed to enjoy some serious machines with modest bills, keep it up.
Brilliantly put 👍👌
That's why many classic cars in "investment" collections are not in a drivable condition
If you can buy a car that you’ve always wanted and enjoy driving it, you shouldn’t expect to make a profit. If you get out of it, what you put in, you’ve hit the jackpot in my opinion.
Happy classic motoring 🚙 💨
100%
Yes I consider that owning and enjoying a car and losing money on it is still worth it, as you get to experience that car and that is worth the cost to me. Same goes for many expensive hobbies.
If you’re classic car makes you smile every time you drive it yeah I’d say you got your moneys worth no amount of return on an investment can put that same smile on your face I never view cars is a way to make money unless it’s like a McLaren F1 or something super rare and expensive like that but even then I still would enjoy driving a McLaren F1 more than I would selling it and collecting the money it would make them besides a proper car enthusiast to looks at cars as a hobby that is something to have fun with not an investment now on the flipside a McLaren F1 would provide enough money to buy other enthusiast cars to have fun with so I guess there’s a gray area there were also the only way you can daily drive and properly McLaren F1 is if you’re a Billionaire like Elon Musk because a tuneup on that car alone cost about five grand and then tires that’s probably gonna be another 5 to 10 grand so you really have to be mega wealthy to enjoy that car any length of time I’d probably rather buy a Porsche 911 Turbo or a Porsche GT3 or something like that like a 996 generation early 2000s and also not go bankrupt during the Sunday drive
Yes!
Totally agree with your logic Jack. Buy cars to enjoy and if they appreciate in value, that’s a bonus.
You’ve raised some absolutely great points. As an owner of a 1983 Mercedes, I can also say that the number of mechanics who can competently work on my car is also dwindling as they retire which will makes things quite challenging. On the other hand if inflation keeps soaring classic cars might be seen as some kind of inflation hedge. We are going through some very volatile times that seem to defy all predictions.
I have a 1989 560 SL in Las Vegas and have one of two good auto repair shops who can work on it and repair with OEM parts. I enjoy this car daily. We sure get a lot of compliments, don’t we? 👍🏻😊
@@mikemccormick8115 Honestly I think the 80’s Mercedes are probably the best group of cars ever made. And massive respect to you for daily driving a 560SL. Hopefully kids will see it and understand what a real car should be.
So true! Mechanics and parts availability are challenges now. What about in 10 to 20 years from now? Good luck getting odd size tires, etc.
You should be working on an 83 Mercedes yourself.
Retro Fords for the win they won’t go down, silly thing to say after looking back at historical prices
All good points. Another factor regarding the “Youth interest” is that they didn’t grow up “Wrenching” on the “Affordable cars” available to them at driving age like we did (Gen X). I asked my son (Gen Z) recently, “When was the last time you were late because your car wouldn’t start?” His answer, “Never.” “Besides if it does I have you to fix it.” 🤦🏻
I find this particularly sad... I would be considered Millennial and I still grown-up interested in cars and working on them etc. I already struggled to get insurance and car, but because I was brought-up with belief that this is required in life I persevered, paid thousands for insurance and I got my car and experienced amazing things and freedoms. But I am looking at kids now Gen-Z, Gen-Y ... they are not interested in the cars because on one hand it is not cool anymore, but on other hand they simply have no realistic chance of driving them before they are 30. Insurance is so ridiculously expensive now that nobody is insuring anything at 17 and driving itself isn't even enjoyable... it is just traffic and speed traps everywhere... Even if you get to drive the car, then there is nowhere to go, all parking removed, LTNs everywhere, so what is the point of driving 10 miles, of then you have to park 10 miles away from where you wanted to go and walking back... may as well just get an uber in the first place... honestly more pain than it is worth... and if people didn't become interested into something by the time they are 30, then they won't get interested into it.
This happens to every generation. Are boomers interested in 1940s and earlier cars?
This happens to every generation. Are boomers interested in 1940s and earlier cars?
This has made perfect sense to me and I have been thinking the same for a long time👍
I'd have punched the cheeky spoilt tw*t in the face, really f*cking hard if he'd said that to me!
I bought my 93 RX-7 in 2005 or so for 6000 US dollars. It is now worth nearly ten times that. Sure I put about $30K into it over the years, but I've also been enjoying it and driving the sht out of it for almost 20 years now. It was never an investment though, but more of a dream car for me.
Speaking of which, love your channel and I'm sure a lot of us would love more 90's Japanese car content. That really was a golden age for Japanese cars...RX-7, 300ZX, NSX, MR2/Supra, 3000GT, etc.
Blown apex seals?
I have a 95 Rx7 which has been for sale 4 years online with no offers, it’s runs and drives and has had 60k spent on it and is advertised at 16k
@@robjonson629 Please link me to the for sale page. I'm interested.
I respect them. One day I will test drive a rotory engined car.
God speed and enjoy your car man!!!
People confuses investing with speculating
Indeed. However unless you are buying blue chip investments most investing is more speculation than anything else.
@@bmstylee No if you just buy indexes or treasuries, or you just think a company is good and you put your money on it
Sensible analysis; fully agree. One thing you didn't mention is that in the future the number of mechanics and specialists will decrease with consequent increased difficulty in finding them and higher costs. A bit like finding a mechanical clock repairer today.
Plus the ever more complicated nature of cars and their electronics. It is already difficult to find electronics for some cars from the 90's, as these specialized components for a certain car, or set of cars was only made for a number of years. I remember reading somewhere that even BMW was desperately looking for old ECU components to fix M1 cars.
@@heiner71 from my understanding the BMW M1 has a quite rare Magneti Marelli ignition system, in part because BMW worked with several Italian companies when building that car and Bosch weren't quite ready with their own system. At least the circuit board layout for the ignition is available online, not sure about the components. The M1 was from 1978 and things haven't got much easier. Servicing the McLaren' F1 supercar needs a specific Compaq laptop to work with an interface card from the 1990s - at least that was true a few years ago, maybe McLaren have a new system since then.
@peyiots This is one thing that bugs me about those who choose to convert classics to electric power. They're effectively hastening the demise of the infrastructure for the rest of us.
Most people I know who own classic vehicles do most of the work themselves. I suppose that gets more difficult with something as complex as a Cosworth but is not a problem with 1970s and older stuff.
@@Phiyedough Except for BDA, Lotus engines and the like ;-)
Man, you are killing my marriage ! Just a couple of weeks ago I showed up at home driving a Giulia 1300 super and the question was "why do you need this, when you have a 1750 already!?" - INVESTMENT ! :)
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Tell it's because you can't handle two beautiful wives.
Anyone think buying a 1982 xr3i is a good or bad idea?
Totally agree with your outlook, Jack. It's the right time of our own lives to enjoy the cars that bring us joy, but to properly enjoy them as they were intended, not for financial reasons.
Really enjoyed this, the ‘generational’ idea is very interesting and thought provoking. I agree that younger people overall are probably less interested in cars compared to say 20-30 years ago. However if my local McDonalds, Gregs, Petrol Station, KFC and town centre are anything to go by, cars still have a massive appeal amongst a hardcore of 18-25 year olds. Personally I think there’s going to be a section of the older generation of petrolhead 40/50 something drivers like me who will never buy into electric no matter how hard the government push it. Therefore from now on in I believe the best and final generations of pure petrol performance cars will become more and more highly sought after as time goes on, even though the government will make them more and more expensive to run and will tax their owners to death.
Yup, agree. I'll personally never buy an EV, on principle. The more governments force feed stuff to people, the more sure you can be that it is 100% wrong. Time will tell.
I suspect there may come a time when government will simply ban ICE cars from public roads completely. This will happen if and once the majority of cars in use are EVs.
Covid had a huge affect on used yacht prices, they went up a good 30%. I forecast that when the reality of the costs of ownership versus the amount of use, prices will drop dramatically
I think the same with motor homes
It’s already happening with holiday homes and cottages, minus 20pct in past year for my area.
That happened to pretty much all of those "grown man toys" you can spend time with alone like bicycles to cameras, vintage audio equipment, motorbikes, cars, watches, home electronics, etc. even houses. Some people lost their jobs during covid, but most, especially middle aged to older folks with higher income just sat at home while money piled up in their bank accounts.
Here in germany classic car prices first took a significant hit in 2020 when people thought we would slide in a massive economic collapse, people stopped buying and alot of these "my W124 convertible is an investment"-dads got cold feet and wanted to sell. I was tempted to buy a neglected 924 with a friend which suddenly started to pop up left and right for 500-800€ but didn't.
As soon as it became clear that a global virus epidemic was just boring af and wouldn't lead to total collaps as all of those zombie movies had told us prices started to climb both due to an increase in demand but also people who were primarily interested in investing their money rather than the object itself.
The world sliding into recession and Boomers dying will kill the ridiculous classic car market.
@@truantray What evidence do you have that 'boomers' are responsible for buying all the classic cars?
There is a lot of very reasonable and wise information in this video. Thank you for producing it.
I saw photos from some Stag owners club meeting the other month.
Most of the owners seemed well into retirement. You don't see so many people in their 20s & 30s wanting one.
I think many (but not all) just don't have the same connection to cars as we did as you can talk to the world via a laptop. We had to drive to a small part of the world for socialising.
3 years ago I was considering buying a 355 manual, only for fun. They were around 65k in Europe. I did not. They are now between 110 and 130k. Within the same period I lost 5% with a 'safe' and not funny at all financial investment... Trees don't grow up to the sky but they are currently still growing....
I think this time around you might be right - the Classic Car Market bubble is going to burst at some point. I totally get the generational shift, those that grew up with Morris 8's etc are not looking to buy a Cosworth and those looking for a Cosworth are not interested in a Morris 8. The same is going to happen to the fast Fords, those that grew up with them will grow older and the next generation will have little association with a Cosworth Escort. A few years ago I purchased a Continental R, not as an investment, more because I really thought they were a piece of motoring history. I also bought a Mini Cooper, not because they are great to drive (which they seldom are by the way) but more because it's another piece of motoring history. Mine are not investments and doubtless an Aston Martin DB6 will always sell better but now in my late 60's I just want to enjoy cleaning and polishing my classics. They are street art to me...
nice lineup of cars you have! But I had to intervene, the original Mini Cooper is an absolute blast to drive!
I love my my BMW 116 diesel( quite pokey) and enjoying the average mpg of 50 mpg. Being as I'm days away from being 60, I'm giving a lot of thought to getting a Toyota MR2. I know I'm getting close to the last car I will be able to drive- my age, cars available, combustible fuel
being phased out by 2030/2035, 15 minute cities and all that.
I'm getting that MR2. And it will be enjoyed.
Cheers, Jeff. Cool vid.
Lucky you. I'm still in my early 30s and absolute love my 3 cars. If someone from the future would come and tell me that I would drive them and only them until I retire, I would be a very happy man. Sadly, I probably have less than 10 more years with them and the second half of my life will likely be without ICE cars altogether. Makes me sad in advance. I wish I could drive them until my 60s... but won't happen, probably.
Very sound advice and I agree. I have been a long term collector, but, I have been lucky enough to afford the cars that I wanted at the time to drive. I have watched the prices of these cars over the years since the early 1970's go up and down like yoyo's. To me it doesn't matter because they are cars that I really enjoy owning and still driving and never intend to part with them.
The other thing to bare in mind is the ever increasing cost of maintenance and repairs, if you add in the cost of this upkeep over the years any real net gain may not be as much as you think.
Cars I have, 246 Dino Spyder, 365GT 2+2, 308GT4, 308GTS (early fiberglass body car. Yes I have a Peugeot 205GTi, Elan Sprint DHC, Esprit S2, XJS V12 Convertible with some TWR mods. I bought these cars all roughly under a year or two old and saved a lot of money on them at the time. The Ferrari's I bought during and around the 70's oil crisis when no one wanted gas guzzlers. So I am the second owner of all of them. I have all of the bills and dealer stamps since they were new, and let me assure you the cost of keeping them all in drivable key start condition is not cheap and not a matter to overlook in your selection. These are some of the cars that appealed to me no matter what others thought or whether they would increase in price or not. I still have that philosophy.
You're not Harry Metcalf's long-lost twin brother, are you? ;-)
Also when you take into account inflation any perceived profit is lower.
Great collection but which of those cars is your favourite driving car.
@@oldbasted Charles I love driving all of them for different reasons. The 246 when I was younger, then I grew to love the 308GT4, I felt it held the road and handled better than even the 308GTB, but does not have the appearance and charisma of the others. The GTB with its plastic body has a sort of boominess to it which can be distracting. The Elan sprint is fabulous but at my height it's hard to get in and out of. The 205GTi is just the bees knees to me in nearly everyway particularly as a daily driver. As I have aged the XJS is just fabulous, smooth and quiet and comfortable and with the TWR steering and suspension changes it handles and holds the road second to none. I didn't have any engine mods.
Just out of curiosity, are you aware you could have conveyed the same message without writing down a list of things you own? It really doesn't change anything apart from the impression you make (not in a good way).
I started using a classic as a daily driver and now I compare to owning a "new" car instead. It's not depreciating anymore, and I drive a much more fun car every day. The owning costs and maintenance is higher, but most of that I would spend on a second car as a hobby anyway.
Same, it amazes me how many are terrified of maintenance costs but oblivious to finance costs and depreciation losses that are far higher
@@RobinCapper After a year with a 20-years-old car and having to visit a shop last minute before a longer trip because something's started sounding funny I kind of get it. Depreciation is the cost of peace of mind and many people are willing to buy it when they have the means, otherwise we wouldn't have any classic cars to begin with ;)
Not sure if any cars are depreciating that much these days. New cars are so expensive that they are becoming out of reach for a lot of people so there is high demand for good used ones. Also cars made in the last 10 years or so are not as reliable because they are using inferior materials like plastic manifolds and thermostat housings.
I've an old Tran Am but I'd never let my daughter use it.
Modern cars are biblically much safer.
If you are not being affected by depreciation, then the average cost is lower than a generic VW Golf. The depreciation on Golfs has been crazy because they are commuter cars. They are everywhere, undesirable, and once they get dumped on the market, it's hard to convince anyone to buy one.
Jack, a very well presented and excellent 'lecture' on the state of the classic car market. What you say makes alot of common sense and is very good advice for anyone interested in classic cars, young or old. No one can really predict what will happen but the factors you mention are all very relevant. Thank you for posting great RUclips uploads.
Unfortunately the first scrappage scheme killed alot of 80's and mostly 90's future classics off such as Vauxhall Calibras etc. If your lucky to find a nice Nova GSi it's well over 10 grand.
I imported two lhd GSIs for 11k euros and stored them and made money… so yes you can make money from classics
The prices of 1960’s Shelby Mustangs began wildly climbing in the 1980’s. I remember one car mechanic who had bought one and sent it to a shop for restoration, then the economy started weakening in the late 80’s and the cost of restoration was going to equal or exceed the car’s value once finished. I didn’t find out if it did actually get restored as I stopped delivering auto parts to deliver pizza.
You can see the generational thing very clearly with motorcycle collecting. Up to about 10 years ago the hot properties were old British bikes, now it's more recent Italians and Japanese bikes of the 80/90s.
You’re correct but the demand is by us 80’s kids who are now in our 40’s. So there’s a good 20 year window of demand yet. 👍🏻
Great video. I’m no longer a classic car enthusiast but I do love a classic motorcycle and can see exactly the same generational effect in that market. I grew up with (and still have) 1950’s to early-70’s British bikes which are now quite rapidly declining in value while 1970’s and 1980’s Japanese bike prices are rising as the following generation washes through. Only a handful of years ago the majority of stalls at bike auto-jumbles were British parts, now they are in the minority. The generational effect is powerful and plays in both supply (“without reserve from deceased estate”) and demand.
I think your right. The values of some of these classic cars cannot continue to rise. Fast Fords are a perfect example. The bubble will burst eventually. It’s just a matter of when. I also agree with the generation theory as most younger people are just not interested in them. You should buy a classic car with your heart and enjoy them whilst you still can. It’s the investors that are ruining it for the genuine enthusiasts.
Similar thing happened in the early 90s, the cost of classic cars went through the roof only to crash a couple of years later. I remember a classic car showroom in Portsmouth that had a Stag for £30k and a Healey 3000 for £75k which were hugely inflated at the time
*You're (an abbreviation of you are.)
It already has.
Great video Jack. No matter how much you tell some people though they just can't see that you won't even be able to give most of these cars away in 10-20 years time. Buy what you love and enjoy it as much as you can. Like you say the rarest and most special cars will always be highly valuable but more as art pieces rather than vehicles.
As a senior advisor to a collectable cars fund in my day job, I cannot but only agree with you, Jack 👍
Brilliant vid Jack... I agree with most of what you've said and as you mentioned, it's the relatively mundane classics we're talking about here, not the exotica. In terms of mundane stuff, the bargain classic at the moment has to be the E46. I have an immaculate low mileage manual 2003 325i Sport which is worth very little for what is a phenomenal car. I'm watching what happens to these with interest as they could well be the herald for the downturn. Having said that, I'm an A-Level teacher in a secondary school and you'd be surprised how many kids are actually very interested in car ownership... not only that but they actually lust after cars like the E46. Literally every day I'm being asked how much it would be to insure the E46... so both of us may well be wrong here. The overriding message though is don't plan your retirement around the increasing value of a Mk2 RS2000.
I think you are pretty much spot on with your assessment, especially when you consider that there are ongoing costs for things like insurance, storage, etc. And, the components of an automobile will deteriorate with time even if it is not driven.
I bought a low mileage Impreza RB5 at the start of lockdown. It's nearly doubled in value! Having said that, the best bit about early lockdown was how empty the roads were! You're probably right about prices in the very long term but I wouldn't expect any crash for at least 20 years.
Well said, and a fine display of humility to boot! I have two comments - first, I have owned a 1981 Porsche 930 for over 28 years…I love the car, and often walk through the garage just to look at it. However, it is apparent to me that younger generations are unimpressed…this is not the car they fantasize about owning (as I did in my youth). So to your point, the future value of the car is far from guaranteed. Second, while I am under no illusions that the current stratospheric value of these cars will continue, I do find it most useful when justifying to my wife the always-growing and numbingly costly pile of maintenance receipts that I have collected over the years!!
Ha you must be joking. That's a dream car for anyone 😉
@@robc8892 Unfortunately not. I have the perfect story relevant to this, with a 930 no less. Last year I was at a local car show and a gentleman with his small son and myself were admiring a striking blue 930 outside. The kid, frustrated, said to his dad "This is NOTHING. There is a Performante over there!!" And dragged his dad away. Funnier still, that Performante I had already walked past and gave it no second looks.
I think you are completely right and for the right reasons. Check out the classic motorcycle world for the same effect somewhat magnified - the boom in post-war British bikes looks to be over, they are not really desirable to people in their 50's and 60's, they want early Japanese bikes now so both the numbers for sale are up and the prices they are making have, I think, topped out and might even be coming down due to lack of demand (I saw a Vincent Rapide sell for £25k the other week. Big money but I know someone who paid the same amount for one, in very similar condition, more than 10 years ago and thought that was a bargain....🤔)
I used to know a pre-war vintage bike specialist and he had a pretty good business employing a couple of old fella's (like himself) selling bikes and parts all over the country (and the world) but the last time I saw him (probably 15 years ago) he was very negative about his business. "No one wants pre-war bikes any more. All I get are phone calls from the children of the people I have been selling bikes to wanting to sell them back to me now" He closed not many years later. But who wants to spend big money on a 1930's Scott Flying Squirrel or BSA J12 now?
100% agree, all the hype now for 1980s cars and bikes, are because people who were teenagers in the 1980s are now late 40s and mid 50s. Once that generation hits their 70s who is going to want a 1985 escort xr3i.
Look at the price of Yamaha FS1Es. All the 16 year olds who wanted one are now OAPs.
I own a very desirable motorcycle (a '94 CBR 900RR) and I definitely agree with what he said. Right now, collectors are paying high dollar for a prestine one. But when those people that remember seeing one for the first time in a magazine are 60 themselves, they won't be interested in buying one anymore; and the new generation won't remember the first time they seen one when it first came out. Sort of like a dead language that noone alive ever knew-they won't know it, they won't miss it, and so how could they appreciate it. As I am writing this, I guess I could look at the top bike of the mid 80's or an amazing bike from the 70's and see what their values are. As the fans age or lose interest, the demand decreases.
I bought a Ferrari 328GTS in 2000 for £33k. I sold it in 2006 for £25k. The car was £39k new in 1987 and during the late 80s car boom it sold for £110K. My guess is it's worth £65k now. Given the running costs it isn't really an investment but obviously fun to own. Prices have moved around over the decades a lot so who knows. Something else that may affect future value is the massive reductions in speed limits we are seeing with tight enforcement. It is taking the pleasure out of sports cars though won't affect people who buy cars and put them into storage (a sin in my book). Totally agree with your points about generational effects.
Thanks for this. It's true. Some of us remember the boom and bust of classics between 89 and 90. Back then it was E types and Cooper S. Took over 20 years to recover. These are good lessons for hype and life generally. It'll be recent 911s and rolex watches next
Rolex watch prices have already dropped significantly from the peak COVID bubble
I remember seeing a restored Minor Traveller in (IIRC) Practical Classics for £9,995. I doubt it would be worth that today.
Totally agree with your point of view but I guess one additional factor was that at some point, many of the 70-80-90's cars went dirt cheap, which doesn't seem to be the case with current aging "cool cars" (like 2000-2010's "interesting" cars are not devaluating as much). I guess it has to do with the fact that there's less and less brand new "cool cars" sold.
Your so right in everything you say , i've just bought a classic Lambretta TV175 that needs restoration but because i love the styiling and looks i will spend money on the restoration . I don't care what its worth when i'm finished its a project for me and my passion. My job is painting and repairing cars day to day and also work on classsic cars. I have a savvy customer who deals in classic cars and has sold most off the cars he owns . Its only metal too him and money .
That’s nothing, Prince Andrew paid £12m for his escort!
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Ha ha, that’s brilliant 😂😂😂
😂
😆
😂😂😂😂
I remember buying my Lancia delta Evo many years ago just because it was the car I always wanted. I still have it and can’t believe what they are selling for now.
Lovely car, do not sell it, enjoy it!
Excellent points Jack. There is also the inflation aspect of restoring classic cars. As it becomes more expensive to restore a car, labour, chroming, painting etc the value of a good tidy or original example increases by default. The generation aspect is correct but for really unique or special cars this doesn't apply hence 1960's Jaguar E Type or 1950's Facel Vega.
I am old enough to remember the arse falling out of the classic car market a couple of times. £100k Jags in the 80's worth £20k later and many others. A Ford Sierra is a Ford Sierra which ever way you look at it. I owned many "fast" Fords years back. They were fun at the time as I was in my 20's early 30's but compared to modern cars they are rubbish. poorly made cheap cars. How they can have improved with age is beyond me?
I remember that video from 6 years ago. I agree with your thoughts though, as it is simply the nostalgia that put's a price on it. When those people are gone, who will remember them and then the values depreciates. Cool video.
Jack great thought provoking stuff. Just showed it to my 15 and 13 year old (boy and girl) - they smiled and both quickly agreed that “Jack does not get our generation at all…….” I am not sure I do either but they can both be at home with environmental issues as well as the internal combustion engine and the character and fun of a classic from a various decades - they are also not alone as I have noticed how their friends both younger and older react, rationalise and get excited.
I think it is complex, with multiple layers, but feel your thesis is a great starter for a wide debate where views will equally be very diverse. Thanks again.
The fast Ford prices are baffling. I wonder if the 600k Cosworth owner will regret the purchase at some point.
Without doubt. A real classic will be beautiful to look at and widely admired when seen parked. That Ford is, let's be honest, an ugly car and I bet almost nobody other than 40 years+ petrol heads would give it a second glance. The performance is what made it cool and these days even that is mediocre by today's standards.
To be fair, there are some very good car investments but you have to choose very carefully. Plus you get to enjoy the investment as a car too rather than it just being a number on a balance sheet. I do remember one of your videos a few years ago that said car prices were going to fall……but they didn’t!
I think you have got it more or less right this time. Whilst insurance companies (UK) generally consider a 20 year old car as a classic many may not agree with that. People may say 'ah that's their excuse for raising the price of cover'. People may be right and there is a debate as to what can be called a classic (with regard to more 'modern ' cars) but I suspect that debate will just rumble on. Few of us will be able to buy a rare vintage Bentley for example so yes life is too short so go and buy a car you will enjoy as you say Jack. Thank you Jack for a very interesting video.👍👍
Hi Jack, we’ve spoken before regarding my 308 GT4, which was a progression from 3 Esprits, 3 RS Turbos, 2 XR2’s.. etc. The GT4 was bought cheap but turned quickly into a full restoration. Although still miles off and thousands and thousands have been spent, 15 years in, I hope I can finally finish it at some point an drive it with petrol available. My sister 5 years younger has little interest in it, and we quickly realised a long time ago, our car choices are so different. So yes, totally agree with your video. I eventually sold a S1 RS Turbo for £1300 with an MOT and rebuilt gearbox, now what would it be worth?!
I hate everything your saying but I know your absolutely right. I own 20 classic motorcycles. And less people are riding motorcycles. The next generation aren’t interested. So they won’t be sort after. And will fall in value. Thank for telling me what I already knew. But it’s ruined my day hearing someone else say it. Cheers
They’re interested, just not the ones in the UK & USA.
Allot of collecting is the same. Hifi, watches, vinyl, cars, bikes, .. nostalgia driven. There are different types of collectors, speculators and those with emotional connection.
Great vid, as usual Jack
One point not mentioned is appreciation on cars is not subject to cgt.
Once the masses follow a trend and prices start rising, it is self sustaining. That is until such time market sentiment changes in a wholesale way (usually from a better alternative coming to the fore)
Your absolutely correct in your analysis. Daimler darts were really expensive when I was young in the late 1980's. Whilst they still go for alot they have not appreciated in fact they could be coming down in price as the people who want them die!
I have a 1993 W124 300E bought last year in Colombia. Cost in equivalent USD was $6,600. Here there are not very many W124's, let alone for sale, and some now are being advertised around USD7-8,000. Not a massive increase but not bad for a daily driver when new cars drop in value by massive amounts. The other benefit of my MB is that it was the last MB manufactured with NO computers.
Totally agree about the generation gap 🤔
Also i think the prices of 80s and 90s cars grew because of those dreaded scrappage schemes 🤔
A lot of good Quality cars were scrapped leaving a shortage in the market in my opinion 👍
The 2009 scrappage scheme list is publicly available and it's one of the saddest things I've read! On top of that, didn't the scrapped cars require a valid MOT to qualify?
@@JamesGadbury
Yes i saw some of those cars on the list it was very sad 🤔
As far as i can remember I don’t think a car needed to have an mot to qualify .
But I could be wrong.
I saw a Channel here on RUclips and they went to a huge compound somewhere in England and it was full of these cars .
Think the Channel was called exploring with fighters
He uploaded it a few yrs ago .
There were lots of cars there from classic minis to XR3is and pug gtis
Crazy 😜
If you can’t find the channel just type in scrappage scheme cars and it should pop up 😉👍
Indeed. I've always bought cars that I either liked, or fulfiiled a specfic daily need. As I recall from the the late 1980's, 'classic car' prices became very inflated, words like 'investment' and 'patina' were all the rage. Jaguar Mk2's, the archetypal bank robber's getaway car, fetched well over £20,000. Not the 2.4 versions, or the Daimler 2.5 V8's of course, they were the unloveds. Had to be 3.4, or better, the 3.8.
Then the recession of 91/92 arrived. Couple of years on from the £20,000 + highs, you could buy a really nice Mk2 for £7,000.
DO NOT BUY A CLASSIC unless you want to SPEND SPEND SPEND they are money pits and usually the reason the original owner moved it on.
I have a career in fine art valuation and all I can say is that there have been people collecting fine art for centuries. I don't see that stopping any time soon. I think with cars it will be the more exotic ones, the convertibles and coupes with the more powerful engines continuing to appreciate. They won't be driven much. The more ordinary models will eventually decrease in value.
I believe you are absolutely right. I've been saying the same thing for a few years now. It's not going to happen overnight, but it will happen.
I remember prices pumping beyond all reason in the late 80's. Then prices crashed in the early 90's & literally took 2 decades to recover..
Interesting video. I am one of the many people who have been priced out of the classic car market so it would be good news for me if prices drop. The most recent classic I bought was a 1976 Toyota Hiace coachbuilt camper which cost me £310 with a full MoT. I think that was in 2008. Previous to that I had an MGBGT and a Riley 1.5 each for £1000.
I understand young people are being encouraged to be more aware of the environment but I struggle to see how enthusiasm is dwindling for younger people. I’m 23 and bought my first classic last year, a 1989 BMW 325i and it’s the most fun car I’ve owned. And it seems a lot of people who I see out on the road and at shows driving similar cars are between 18-30. I think with all the advances in new car technology with lane keep assist, forward collision warnings, drive by wire controls and touchscreen everything drivers are feeling isolated and less in control. And with all that in mind, some people are growing to appreciate the joys of a well engineered car that is genuinely intuitive to interact with.
You forgot you don't pay capital gains on classic cars. That is probably the biggest factor at play
wasting asset
True
And when you have money, the ability to afford special cars and an accountant who understands your passion.
@@brianiswrong I've got money and cosworths...no accountant
@@bigjohnfury5662 the owners don't change then😂
The smelly old petrol cars that are made of real metal (pre-plastic fantastic) will hold their value, especially rare and beautiful sports cars. Best years: 1930s and 1960s. For those on a budget: MG, Triumph, etc. That's my two pennies' worth on the subject.
I agree 100%. Buy cars if you enjoy them. You can not really buy time with anykinda money so you want to fill your time with good, fulfilling experiences that you want to remember. That is the content of this movie we call life.
You right ,the younger generation are not interested in classic cars and I find it sad 😢, they are to busy inhaling nitrous oxide and spending hours on TikTok,Instagram and Facebook .
I think this happened in the 80's. I had a magazine that listed many cars prices. Before and after. There was a Ferrari that was sold for 3 mil +. Later it went a little over 1 mil. You are spot on Jack.
Yep, Jack and I are old enough to remember when E-Types were selling for 100k in 80s money. And people were stupid enough to pay over retail for new cars! 😂
I agree on one hand but on the other hand people of all ages say “ that’s a really cool car “ when I go somewhere in my black 944.
I have an XK 140 I have owned for 34 yrs , the pleasure it has given me over that time means it doesn't owe me a cent.
Well said…I have own 2 period vehicles (2 decades)because I love their shape & hate planned obsolescence…
i`ts all about intrest in history, my oldest car was from 1934, my last car is from 1971, i collect old stuff, old weapons, artifacts, even from way back 1700, sometimes, even when you were never told about this period, you just lean to this ( i call it romantic time ) but it was far from that.. just old spirit i guess.
This video is bang on! Most investments don't require routine maintenance, insurance, and yearly registration fee's.
So true ! A car is a depreciating asset - as is a house. Entropy cannot be prevented. When parts for service are no more, neither is the car...
in New Zealand, happily , a 1990's Alfa is cheap - provided you can work on it yourself. And I can...
@Number27 Excellent forecast. Just found your channel. I am a car lover and old. I’m in the U.S. I call it the Model T effect. Ford Model T’s were very collectable in the 1950’s and 1960’s by the folks that grew up with them. Sometime later, not sure when, the prices tanked. Because of your observation, the “generational” effect. And yes, the true rare and classic cars will be investments. Just watched the Mecum auction in Kissimmee, Florida and the Barrett-Jackson. The market is possibly different here as a casual observer prices seem at least stable for the average stuff. It will crack though, sooner or later.
I'm happy to see in the comments that we're all in the same boat! I've poured about 40k in the past couple of months for the complete restoration of my Mondial QV which has immense sentimental value (it was my dad's car since before I was born), and could maybe sell it today for about that. It's not a financial investment, classic cars are an emotional and memory investment!
I wish you a lot of joy with your Mondial! Drive her with pleasure!
Totally agree with you! I bought a Jaguar XK8 some years ago and there are many people telling me that this will be a future classic and prices will rise. Well, maybe they will, maybe not - to be honest: I don't care. As other commenters already mentioned: prices will never rise in a way to pay my maintenance bills. And even so: I don't care, because the car pays off a driving-fun-dividend every day. That's why I "invested" in it and to me that's the only reason one should "invest" in a (future-)classic car: buy the car, you like to own, drive it, have fun with it as long as it's still possible - that's worth a million times more than any profit.
You're right of course. I bought my -58 220S and my -59 Belvedere for pocketchange back in the seventies. 10-20 years ago they where worth more than today. Not to mentioning my friends who went for Standards, Borgwards, Ramblers, Panhards,FIATs such brands that's today sells for the same pocketchange as way back when. But one has to count all the fun I had with my cars over the years and all the friends I made.Then it's totally worth it even though I know I will not get much the day I'm to old to drive.
I believe you are absolutely right. 10 years from now the market and the prices will be very much reduced. I buy and keep classic cars because I love to drive them and look at them.
My NAS (North American Spec) Land Rover Defender has kept going up in value. It is such a basic vehicle, with no electronics except for the fuel injection system. I've done all the maintenance on it, which is mostly routine oil changes (I only drive it a couple thousand miles a year). Vintage 4x4s such as Land Cruisers and Land Rovers have a timeless charm and utility which appeal to all generations, especially as modern day SUVs have all morphed into amorphous blobs loaded with electronic gadgets.
I think you’re spot on with what you say in this video, I’ve been saying the same thing for a while. The prices people are asking for some extremely dull cars is laughable. I understand why that’s happening as prices of more exciting cars go up they drag up the rest. There’s also the Goodwood factor….. Austin A35 prices are ridiculous mainly because they now race them at Goodwood. Unfortunately the classic car scene has also become “fashionable” so there are a lot of pretenders mingling about that will fall by the wayside when it becomes unfashionable again.😊
This echos my thoughts exactly. I'm in the market for an E Type but the current values are making me jittery, i'm in my 50's and most people my age are now pumping money into Capris and RS2000's. A lot of the Jags for sale have been so for a very long time and thanks to the 1980's classic car boom I think there are more cars out there than buyers so I have decided to sit it out for a while and just watch the values. Maybe a risky strategy as I could get left behind if values continue to climb but equally I may get better value for money if they ease. Only time will tell......
Wise words Jack ! As you say, once us generation Xs have croaked it, or are too old to drive, values of 80s cars will dip… that’s still 10-20 years away I guess
A classic car is a better investment than, say, spending all that money on beer at the pub or clothing which goes in the bin.
I think people that buy classic cars purely to mothball them and sell them at a profit are just selfish and they take a away the opportunity for people who wish to own a car they dreamt of owning and wish to use it and enjoy it . I see a guy sometimes in a red jaguar convertible on summers days he cruises around the estate it's a council estate in Stoke on Trent in his golf style clothes and flat cap smoking big cigar , I love seeing him, you can see he's living his dream in those moments and buying cars as a means to make money just seems bizzare it's like buying a Stradivarius violin and then putting in a cabinet never to played again and that's sad cars are for driving they aren't ornaments or dinky toys brand new in undamaged packaging .
You are correct. Also parts availability for cars creeping 30 to 40 years are getting slim, in some instances you'll have to find alternative parts that you can use if you can even find them. My friend still drives a mid 90s honda cr-v. Honda no longer manufactures the oem parts and a solenoid for that car runs $200. Also the new generation might not even want to work or have the know how to work on older vehicles, a lot of old timers who knew the tricks and tips of the trade are taking that information to the afterlife, all that knowledge gone.
I would add that as parts become more difficult to find, there is a critical value below which cars, even for enthusiasts, become "uneconomical" to keep on the road. This critical value also goes up and down with interest rates, but inversely. So that value is higher now than it was, so there is less "headroom" between the market price today ( coming down ) and this economic-to-repair price ( which is rising )
The other problem here in the USA is the functional utility of driving a classic on modern roads. I drove a friends 1933 Alfa Romeo 8c 2300 on a classic car rally and it was pretty terrifying driving that car in modern suburban traffic on a Saturday morning. I have the same problem my Lotus 7 and Lancia Zagato. The cars are small and people texting and driving in their big SUV tend not to see you and I have had a couple close calls. The Lotus 7 now is track only. With safety issues and a sea of lager cars I think many classics from the 60's -80's will lose their utility as fun cars to drive in normal traffic as cars from the 1920's -50's have lost that utility.
I think you're right in the long term. One thing worth noting is that, once fuel prices are ridiculous, anyone who still wants a petrol classic will be more drawn to something like a 205 GTI than to a Mustang, for example. I'm sure it won't stop the real enthusiasts from buying and driving the car they want though!
Honest statement of the future, you will own nothing and will be happy... Not a future I want. I live by my heart and loves, I will be free always.
I remember seeing in person a Lamborghini Miura for sale for $19,000.00 in Los Angeles. Yep, less than $20k. I remember thinking, that's not so outrageous, I'll get one in a few years. Lol - I didn't.
I hope you're right Jack as there are so many modern classics I've fancied which have risen in value so much that they're simply out of reach now. Things like the Integra type R, Clio williams and even the 306 rallye, based on your favourite GTI6, which was only worth two grand as recently as 2015/16 but now is beyond the ten grand mark. Cars should be bought to be enjoyed and if they appreciate that is just an incidental bonus.....i'm hoping some sanity might reappear in the next few years. In the meantime my tip is maybe buy a 2000s soon to be classic like a focus ST170. Still cheap and unlikely to depreciate further.....
Yeah. I have a Skoda Octavia vrs MK1 in red sitting in the garage. Used for high days and holidays with 51000miles. Cost 3k about 5yrs ago. Can't see it going lower in price than that.
The Mitsubishi GTO has been largely unaffected by crazy price increases. Great value car, and something you wouldn't have experienced if the other cars you were looking at were affordable. Buy what you can afford and you will have a better experience than beating yourself up over a missed chance to poach that unicorn.
Great video, Jack. Many thanks for taking the time to produce it.
Thanks. As far as I'm concerned this is the only rational description I've heard of what has happened the reasoning and what may or is likely to happen into the future.
Totally agree. I have felt for many years that collecting anything but the most desirable and expensive is not a long term investment. The younger generations are not interested and with no one to buy values will collapse. Antique furniture is a perfect example of the drop in demand and prices.
Thanks. yes, I agree with most of what you say. Here in Australia we will still need cars for longer - public transport is not up to the job. Let's see how battery technology works but I also think that hand in hand with the lack of interest in cars among the new generation is the fact that most cars are made to be disposed of now. I am trying to get rid of one now and am back to driving my 1964 Landrover daily in preference to the time bomb of a 2015 Renault van, which was built to be built and sold, not maintained.
Good video and you bring up good points. Now I'm not into the cars you mention, however last summer I bought myself a low mileage 1998 Y87 garage queen Firebird for less than $10k. Two months ago my insurance company called me to go over or entire policy. They bumped the coverage of my Firebird to $15k. I wasn't expecting this at all. Being that it's a Firebird, many younger people don't know what my car is as they never, or rarely, heard of it.
I understand the cars you mention are classes above my type of car, but it's still very interesting watching this play out.
As a pro car-trader for more than 2 decades I fully agree with you.. But I have to say one more reason why these classic cars will NOT raise in value forever, and that is the simple fact that in a "few" years it will be impossible for the owners to drive them legally on public roads. Why? Because we will have self-driving cars sooner than we want to accept and there will be NO possible way to find any petrol or diesel tankstation.. Use your mind guys, classic or vintage cars will be for exhibitions only.
The Generational aspect was a great observation which had never occurred to me.
Something else to be considered is the ongoing costs of looking after ones investment: storage, maintenance and insurance.
You make some good points especially the generation aspect, one thing you didn't mention is the devaluation of the pound, so in the future you will need more pounds to buy the same things hence why cars look expensive but aren't really.
Appreciate the thought provoking video. A counter-point (in a longer timeframe), ICE cars and particularly nice/special/unique ones may be coveted in the future when only EVs are sold new (and possibly with all sorts of intrusive software/controls). The remaining ICE vehicles not otherwise scrapped may represent a level of freedom, and also desirability just for being otherwise rare.
But then there won’t be as many gas stations around so the ICE cars will be the ones with no range 😅
I follow your logic here too. I'm also secretly hoping for a classic car market cool off like the one experienced 30-ish years ago. As with anything like this, the market is flooded with speculators where the power has been almost entirely with the sellers, which has priced many of the 'enthusiasts' out, many of which were responsible for restoring and maintaing classics, let alone building owner communities to share knowledge.
Within the last 5 years I sold what would be a modern classic which, at the time of selling it, was increasing in value (we're not talking serious money here). The buyer who ended up taking the car said he was suspicious of the car being slightly under-priced in comparison to other seemingly worse examples for sale, but that was deliberate. I wanted the car to be accessible to a real enthusiast whilst still breaking even on what I had spent on making the car much better. I felt much happier doing this as opposed to taking advantage of someone's wallet just because I could. That's what real classic car ownership is about to me - making it accessible so long as you don't bankrupt yourself in the process.
I agree with your thoughts, Jack, particularly on the Generational aspect. Derek at Matthewsons is often heard commenting that the market has fallen on the pre-war stuff for exactly this reason and the same is being seen in the classic bike market - values have fallen for the BSA Gold Stars and the like while 70s and 80s bikes from the Japanese manufacturers are seeing values increase.