Larry Summers on the Mixed May US Jobs Report

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  • Опубликовано: 11 янв 2025

Комментарии • 57

  • @100xx
    @100xx Год назад +4

    summary of this video :Summers discusses the recent jobs report, which exceeded expectations with the addition of 13 and 39 thousand jobs. They consider these numbers to be strong and indicate the underlying strength of the economy. The speaker also suggests that the forecasting community has consistently underestimated the strength of the economy, potentially overestimating the impact of monetary policy in slowing it down.
    The conversation then shifts to the passage of a package addressing the debt ceiling problem and its implications for fiscal policy. The speaker believes that with the debt limit issue resolved, the focus should turn to the long-term fiscal picture of the country. They express concerns about the projected budget deficit, which could exceed 10% of GDP, and criticize certain provisions in the package related to tax enforcement.
    The discussion touches on the ratio of debt service to GDP and its potential impact. The speaker argues that assuming low interest rates for an extended period is unrealistic, and higher rates could significantly increase debt service levels. They highlight the need to prepare for potential shocks and contingencies in the future.
    Regarding the economy, the speaker believes that the robust jobs numbers and the risk of inflation warrant the Federal Reserve considering rate hikes. They suggest that a recession is inevitable and that delaying necessary actions could lead to more significant issues later on. However, they do not foresee a recession before the end of the summer and speculate that the Fed's actions may result in a soft economy in 2024.
    Overall, the speaker emphasizes the strength of the jobs report, the importance of addressing long-term fiscal challenges, and the need for proactive measures to manage inflation and potential economic downturns.

    • @AJ-iu6nw
      @AJ-iu6nw Год назад +1

      the "Speaker" was on that Island. And he met with him.

    • @100xx
      @100xx Год назад +1

      @@AJ-iu6nw Yes I'm hallucinating with chat gpt :)

    • @tompastian3447
      @tompastian3447 Год назад

      Biden and dems are taking credit for a good jobs report. Their policies have done zero to impact jobs.
      This time of year, coming out of winter, jobs become available that were not available in the cold winter months.
      Spending money we don't have is all counter productive. Biden reduced consumer's buying power by about 20 to 25%. Capitalism is a trickle down system. Democrats believe in "trickle down", but the difference is, they want to be the ones who do the trickling down. I.e. they obtain more and more of our money, plus print as much as they want, and we get whatever trickles down. If you think the government can do a better job than you at trickling money down, that's up for debate. I would rather use my money for things I really need, not TV's and cruises, but car and home repairs, donations to church, missionary, etc.

    • @parasbhargava6047
      @parasbhargava6047 Год назад

      thank you for the summary. it saves time

  • @sumerrana1111
    @sumerrana1111 Год назад +1

    Where the heck are these jobs? I am reading LinkedIn posts of people struggling to land in jobs after 100s of interviews.

    • @mr.rogers3959
      @mr.rogers3959 Год назад

      They failed, as usual, to consider the amount of ghost jobs within the data.
      This gives us a less accurate understanding of the actual situation.

  • @imtryinghere1
    @imtryinghere1 Год назад +7

    Larry would make a great penguin in a reboot of Batman and Robin

    • @mrcmid9132
      @mrcmid9132 Год назад

      He can never replace Danny devito! Lmao 🤣

    • @valdomero738
      @valdomero738 Год назад

      Larry is such an evil criminal that make any Batman villain look like a goofie in comparison.

  • @KingDayDayDay00
    @KingDayDayDay00 Год назад +2

    how many of these jobs are fast food?

  • @xyz-uw3ps
    @xyz-uw3ps Год назад +8

    Nice to see Larry back!

  • @albertoperin402
    @albertoperin402 Год назад +6

    This thing will not be solved until those who hold assets will be really hit. House prices are going up with 7% mortgage rates...

  • @桜舞-t6i
    @桜舞-t6i Год назад +2

    Fed’s already behind the curve

    • @mrcmid9132
      @mrcmid9132 Год назад

      The feds job is to always stay behind the curve.

  • @drsuzuki6506
    @drsuzuki6506 Год назад +4

    Larry knows the FED is being too timid. The FED needs to drive a spike into the heart of this economy.

  • @jakethomas1829
    @jakethomas1829 Год назад

    "Dynamics are very difficult to gauge".
    But a flight manifest is easy to read.

  • @wanderingknight10
    @wanderingknight10 Год назад +5

    Almost half a million jobs ..nice!!! Can’t wait for more interest rates

    • @goof260
      @goof260 Год назад +3

      gimme them 6% treasuries!

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад +1

      jobs are up because the largest demographic in the US retired (boomers) they can hike interest rates to 10 and it won't change that.
      inflation is already declining there is no need to hike interest rates

  • @glennnielsen8054
    @glennnielsen8054 Год назад

    It could be interesting to hear whether Larry Summers believes that inflation is defined or measured correctly and, in the same consideration, whether we can compare inflation between countries.

  • @royprovins7037
    @royprovins7037 Год назад +3

    HIgher interest rates are good for retirees who have no debt

  • @larrythelieutenant1783
    @larrythelieutenant1783 Год назад +1

    So is LS advocating for austerity or tax hikes? Sounds like unemployment is his main measure of the health of the economy. He would prefer higher unemployment and all of the benefits employers have with job scarcity compared with slightly higher inflation and employees having higher wages and additional flexibility.

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      "wage price spiral" is what he is scared of and we are no where near that level

    • @alexgamble4718
      @alexgamble4718 Год назад

      Are expectations still anchored at ~3%? Thats key to keeping wage claims lower and avoiding spiral.

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      @@alexgamble4718 expectations have plummeted from 9.1 earlier this year to 4.9. that's CPI btw wich lags like a mfer.
      judging by the fact that credit card use is high af I recon wages haven't caught up with inflation. with is a good thing for preventing wage price spiral.
      AI should also be a huge de-inflationary force as well since services (2nd largest cause of current inflation) will be getting gutted.

    • @alexgamble4718
      @alexgamble4718 Год назад

      @@fr21_org take the AI stuff with a grain of salt. Any productivity improvements will take years to play out.

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      @@alexgamble4718 strange, me previous comment got flagged... in case you missed it il say it again, IBM is already replacing 8k jobs in human resources with AI. that's just 1 company. entire sectors will be decimated.

  • @jookyuh
    @jookyuh Год назад +3

    Give it a rest. Inflation is coming down rather quickly when you look at the realtime and forward looking data.

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      @Russell Lindley CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and is currently @ 4.9 (source: [bureau of labor statistics] I would put a link but I don't want to get flagged)

    • @jookyuh
      @jookyuh Год назад

      @Russell Lindley It was Fed's outdated models and price measurements that got us into this mess to begin with (of course, along with uncontrolled fiscal spending) by not calling inflation on time and preemptively raising rates earlier. I don't see how a reasonable person can give much credence to the very measurements that got us into this mess, other than using it as a data point as to how the useless Fed members will vote for the rate decision.
      Base effect? Lower base does not necessarily mean the inflation rate will go back up -- if the inflation rate coming down is more than enough to offset the lower base.

  • @fr21_org
    @fr21_org Год назад

    if inflation continues too cool there is no need to crush the economy. Europe has more reason to be screwed yet their stock market is higher and their inflation is dropping like an anvil in a loony toon. Germany for example dropped their inflation 2% past their expectations... 2%!!! they have bigger energy issues than the US! this man is short and wants to crush the market

  • @raywest3834
    @raywest3834 Год назад

    So WE have to pay to 'reconstruct Ukraine?'

  • @thinkpod4543
    @thinkpod4543 Год назад

    Looking at deficit right now public debt increased by 1 Trillion

  • @marcedrickirby6348
    @marcedrickirby6348 Год назад

    If you steal don't get caught holding the bag but if the cockroaches get something taking from him/her is it called stealing or is it just called holding the bag door please because I am going to take it from you

  • @JJS73
    @JJS73 Год назад

    Please use someone else.

  • @mrcmid9132
    @mrcmid9132 Год назад

    Higher interest rates no doubt!

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      all the fed wants to do is lower & stabilize inflation expectations in the lagging CPI. that is done, there is no need for further hikes.
      Larry is just short and wants the market to crash so he can cover or he is liquid and hesitated to go in @ year start and wants to add in a dip

    • @mrcmid9132
      @mrcmid9132 Год назад

      @fr21 lmao 🤣 you obviously have no idea how this game works but you will learn.

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      @@mrcmid9132 and you do? why don't you enlighten me then cuz last I checked the fed had 2 mandates 1 stable pricing and 2 maximum employment

    • @mrcmid9132
      @mrcmid9132 Год назад

      @fr21 the next fed meeting is June 13th and 14th. Jerome Powell has repeatedly said a strong monthly jobs report and a strong economy means higher for longer interest rates.

    • @fr21_org
      @fr21_org Год назад

      ​@@mrcmid9132 "reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening of labor conditions" -JP
      the key word in that quote is "likely". as long as inflation expectations continue to drop (beginning of the year CPI was @ 9.1 ish and its currently 4.9 ish) there will be no need to cripple the job market.
      remember the main reason inflation got out of wack was #1 covid caused factories to shut down while people still bought and #2 an energy crisis when Russia invaded Ukraine. new trade routs have been made and we are basically back to normal.
      jobs are likely not to get any better either (until AI starts catching more steam at least) since the largest demographic in the US (boomers) all basically retired in the last couple of years, those old farts held on to their positions till the bitter end not letting the young blood grow :( dam millennials are going to be just like them >:(

  • @PMrighteous
    @PMrighteous Год назад

    Blah blah blah Bs. You don’t KNOW !!!!

  • @AJ-iu6nw
    @AJ-iu6nw Год назад +1

    Larry was on that island. He met with him 3 times.

  • @joshhoffman1975
    @joshhoffman1975 Год назад +1

    Brilliant economist!

  • @lisalove6327
    @lisalove6327 Год назад

    Hi 👋

  • @JaxOneil-fu1kt
    @JaxOneil-fu1kt Год назад

    There is a side gig available, mostly for folks seeking a side work, or people looking to gather more experience about data and such, get in touch with me for further details.