summary of this video :Summers discusses the recent jobs report, which exceeded expectations with the addition of 13 and 39 thousand jobs. They consider these numbers to be strong and indicate the underlying strength of the economy. The speaker also suggests that the forecasting community has consistently underestimated the strength of the economy, potentially overestimating the impact of monetary policy in slowing it down. The conversation then shifts to the passage of a package addressing the debt ceiling problem and its implications for fiscal policy. The speaker believes that with the debt limit issue resolved, the focus should turn to the long-term fiscal picture of the country. They express concerns about the projected budget deficit, which could exceed 10% of GDP, and criticize certain provisions in the package related to tax enforcement. The discussion touches on the ratio of debt service to GDP and its potential impact. The speaker argues that assuming low interest rates for an extended period is unrealistic, and higher rates could significantly increase debt service levels. They highlight the need to prepare for potential shocks and contingencies in the future. Regarding the economy, the speaker believes that the robust jobs numbers and the risk of inflation warrant the Federal Reserve considering rate hikes. They suggest that a recession is inevitable and that delaying necessary actions could lead to more significant issues later on. However, they do not foresee a recession before the end of the summer and speculate that the Fed's actions may result in a soft economy in 2024. Overall, the speaker emphasizes the strength of the jobs report, the importance of addressing long-term fiscal challenges, and the need for proactive measures to manage inflation and potential economic downturns.
Biden and dems are taking credit for a good jobs report. Their policies have done zero to impact jobs. This time of year, coming out of winter, jobs become available that were not available in the cold winter months. Spending money we don't have is all counter productive. Biden reduced consumer's buying power by about 20 to 25%. Capitalism is a trickle down system. Democrats believe in "trickle down", but the difference is, they want to be the ones who do the trickling down. I.e. they obtain more and more of our money, plus print as much as they want, and we get whatever trickles down. If you think the government can do a better job than you at trickling money down, that's up for debate. I would rather use my money for things I really need, not TV's and cruises, but car and home repairs, donations to church, missionary, etc.
jobs are up because the largest demographic in the US retired (boomers) they can hike interest rates to 10 and it won't change that. inflation is already declining there is no need to hike interest rates
It could be interesting to hear whether Larry Summers believes that inflation is defined or measured correctly and, in the same consideration, whether we can compare inflation between countries.
So is LS advocating for austerity or tax hikes? Sounds like unemployment is his main measure of the health of the economy. He would prefer higher unemployment and all of the benefits employers have with job scarcity compared with slightly higher inflation and employees having higher wages and additional flexibility.
@@alexgamble4718 expectations have plummeted from 9.1 earlier this year to 4.9. that's CPI btw wich lags like a mfer. judging by the fact that credit card use is high af I recon wages haven't caught up with inflation. with is a good thing for preventing wage price spiral. AI should also be a huge de-inflationary force as well since services (2nd largest cause of current inflation) will be getting gutted.
@@alexgamble4718 strange, me previous comment got flagged... in case you missed it il say it again, IBM is already replacing 8k jobs in human resources with AI. that's just 1 company. entire sectors will be decimated.
@Russell Lindley CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and is currently @ 4.9 (source: [bureau of labor statistics] I would put a link but I don't want to get flagged)
@Russell Lindley It was Fed's outdated models and price measurements that got us into this mess to begin with (of course, along with uncontrolled fiscal spending) by not calling inflation on time and preemptively raising rates earlier. I don't see how a reasonable person can give much credence to the very measurements that got us into this mess, other than using it as a data point as to how the useless Fed members will vote for the rate decision. Base effect? Lower base does not necessarily mean the inflation rate will go back up -- if the inflation rate coming down is more than enough to offset the lower base.
if inflation continues too cool there is no need to crush the economy. Europe has more reason to be screwed yet their stock market is higher and their inflation is dropping like an anvil in a loony toon. Germany for example dropped their inflation 2% past their expectations... 2%!!! they have bigger energy issues than the US! this man is short and wants to crush the market
If you steal don't get caught holding the bag but if the cockroaches get something taking from him/her is it called stealing or is it just called holding the bag door please because I am going to take it from you
all the fed wants to do is lower & stabilize inflation expectations in the lagging CPI. that is done, there is no need for further hikes. Larry is just short and wants the market to crash so he can cover or he is liquid and hesitated to go in @ year start and wants to add in a dip
@fr21 the next fed meeting is June 13th and 14th. Jerome Powell has repeatedly said a strong monthly jobs report and a strong economy means higher for longer interest rates.
@@mrcmid9132 "reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening of labor conditions" -JP the key word in that quote is "likely". as long as inflation expectations continue to drop (beginning of the year CPI was @ 9.1 ish and its currently 4.9 ish) there will be no need to cripple the job market. remember the main reason inflation got out of wack was #1 covid caused factories to shut down while people still bought and #2 an energy crisis when Russia invaded Ukraine. new trade routs have been made and we are basically back to normal. jobs are likely not to get any better either (until AI starts catching more steam at least) since the largest demographic in the US (boomers) all basically retired in the last couple of years, those old farts held on to their positions till the bitter end not letting the young blood grow :( dam millennials are going to be just like them >:(
There is a side gig available, mostly for folks seeking a side work, or people looking to gather more experience about data and such, get in touch with me for further details.
summary of this video :Summers discusses the recent jobs report, which exceeded expectations with the addition of 13 and 39 thousand jobs. They consider these numbers to be strong and indicate the underlying strength of the economy. The speaker also suggests that the forecasting community has consistently underestimated the strength of the economy, potentially overestimating the impact of monetary policy in slowing it down.
The conversation then shifts to the passage of a package addressing the debt ceiling problem and its implications for fiscal policy. The speaker believes that with the debt limit issue resolved, the focus should turn to the long-term fiscal picture of the country. They express concerns about the projected budget deficit, which could exceed 10% of GDP, and criticize certain provisions in the package related to tax enforcement.
The discussion touches on the ratio of debt service to GDP and its potential impact. The speaker argues that assuming low interest rates for an extended period is unrealistic, and higher rates could significantly increase debt service levels. They highlight the need to prepare for potential shocks and contingencies in the future.
Regarding the economy, the speaker believes that the robust jobs numbers and the risk of inflation warrant the Federal Reserve considering rate hikes. They suggest that a recession is inevitable and that delaying necessary actions could lead to more significant issues later on. However, they do not foresee a recession before the end of the summer and speculate that the Fed's actions may result in a soft economy in 2024.
Overall, the speaker emphasizes the strength of the jobs report, the importance of addressing long-term fiscal challenges, and the need for proactive measures to manage inflation and potential economic downturns.
the "Speaker" was on that Island. And he met with him.
@@AJ-iu6nw Yes I'm hallucinating with chat gpt :)
Biden and dems are taking credit for a good jobs report. Their policies have done zero to impact jobs.
This time of year, coming out of winter, jobs become available that were not available in the cold winter months.
Spending money we don't have is all counter productive. Biden reduced consumer's buying power by about 20 to 25%. Capitalism is a trickle down system. Democrats believe in "trickle down", but the difference is, they want to be the ones who do the trickling down. I.e. they obtain more and more of our money, plus print as much as they want, and we get whatever trickles down. If you think the government can do a better job than you at trickling money down, that's up for debate. I would rather use my money for things I really need, not TV's and cruises, but car and home repairs, donations to church, missionary, etc.
thank you for the summary. it saves time
Where the heck are these jobs? I am reading LinkedIn posts of people struggling to land in jobs after 100s of interviews.
They failed, as usual, to consider the amount of ghost jobs within the data.
This gives us a less accurate understanding of the actual situation.
Larry would make a great penguin in a reboot of Batman and Robin
He can never replace Danny devito! Lmao 🤣
Larry is such an evil criminal that make any Batman villain look like a goofie in comparison.
how many of these jobs are fast food?
Nice to see Larry back!
This thing will not be solved until those who hold assets will be really hit. House prices are going up with 7% mortgage rates...
Fed’s already behind the curve
The feds job is to always stay behind the curve.
Larry knows the FED is being too timid. The FED needs to drive a spike into the heart of this economy.
"Dynamics are very difficult to gauge".
But a flight manifest is easy to read.
Almost half a million jobs ..nice!!! Can’t wait for more interest rates
gimme them 6% treasuries!
jobs are up because the largest demographic in the US retired (boomers) they can hike interest rates to 10 and it won't change that.
inflation is already declining there is no need to hike interest rates
It could be interesting to hear whether Larry Summers believes that inflation is defined or measured correctly and, in the same consideration, whether we can compare inflation between countries.
HIgher interest rates are good for retirees who have no debt
So is LS advocating for austerity or tax hikes? Sounds like unemployment is his main measure of the health of the economy. He would prefer higher unemployment and all of the benefits employers have with job scarcity compared with slightly higher inflation and employees having higher wages and additional flexibility.
"wage price spiral" is what he is scared of and we are no where near that level
Are expectations still anchored at ~3%? Thats key to keeping wage claims lower and avoiding spiral.
@@alexgamble4718 expectations have plummeted from 9.1 earlier this year to 4.9. that's CPI btw wich lags like a mfer.
judging by the fact that credit card use is high af I recon wages haven't caught up with inflation. with is a good thing for preventing wage price spiral.
AI should also be a huge de-inflationary force as well since services (2nd largest cause of current inflation) will be getting gutted.
@@fr21_org take the AI stuff with a grain of salt. Any productivity improvements will take years to play out.
@@alexgamble4718 strange, me previous comment got flagged... in case you missed it il say it again, IBM is already replacing 8k jobs in human resources with AI. that's just 1 company. entire sectors will be decimated.
Give it a rest. Inflation is coming down rather quickly when you look at the realtime and forward looking data.
@Russell Lindley CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and is currently @ 4.9 (source: [bureau of labor statistics] I would put a link but I don't want to get flagged)
@Russell Lindley It was Fed's outdated models and price measurements that got us into this mess to begin with (of course, along with uncontrolled fiscal spending) by not calling inflation on time and preemptively raising rates earlier. I don't see how a reasonable person can give much credence to the very measurements that got us into this mess, other than using it as a data point as to how the useless Fed members will vote for the rate decision.
Base effect? Lower base does not necessarily mean the inflation rate will go back up -- if the inflation rate coming down is more than enough to offset the lower base.
if inflation continues too cool there is no need to crush the economy. Europe has more reason to be screwed yet their stock market is higher and their inflation is dropping like an anvil in a loony toon. Germany for example dropped their inflation 2% past their expectations... 2%!!! they have bigger energy issues than the US! this man is short and wants to crush the market
So WE have to pay to 'reconstruct Ukraine?'
Looking at deficit right now public debt increased by 1 Trillion
If you steal don't get caught holding the bag but if the cockroaches get something taking from him/her is it called stealing or is it just called holding the bag door please because I am going to take it from you
Please use someone else.
Higher interest rates no doubt!
all the fed wants to do is lower & stabilize inflation expectations in the lagging CPI. that is done, there is no need for further hikes.
Larry is just short and wants the market to crash so he can cover or he is liquid and hesitated to go in @ year start and wants to add in a dip
@fr21 lmao 🤣 you obviously have no idea how this game works but you will learn.
@@mrcmid9132 and you do? why don't you enlighten me then cuz last I checked the fed had 2 mandates 1 stable pricing and 2 maximum employment
@fr21 the next fed meeting is June 13th and 14th. Jerome Powell has repeatedly said a strong monthly jobs report and a strong economy means higher for longer interest rates.
@@mrcmid9132 "reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening of labor conditions" -JP
the key word in that quote is "likely". as long as inflation expectations continue to drop (beginning of the year CPI was @ 9.1 ish and its currently 4.9 ish) there will be no need to cripple the job market.
remember the main reason inflation got out of wack was #1 covid caused factories to shut down while people still bought and #2 an energy crisis when Russia invaded Ukraine. new trade routs have been made and we are basically back to normal.
jobs are likely not to get any better either (until AI starts catching more steam at least) since the largest demographic in the US (boomers) all basically retired in the last couple of years, those old farts held on to their positions till the bitter end not letting the young blood grow :( dam millennials are going to be just like them >:(
Blah blah blah Bs. You don’t KNOW !!!!
Larry was on that island. He met with him 3 times.
so was trump
Brilliant economist!
Hi 👋
There is a side gig available, mostly for folks seeking a side work, or people looking to gather more experience about data and such, get in touch with me for further details.