@@stephenhavell6389 Selection process is missing only staking plan present . this is interesting for those who have not encountered this staking plan before, but it has been available freely for sometime. Add the selection process and it will be great
I don't know what Maria's selection process was, but if you are looking for value on laying horses look at horses that have been heavily tipped by the major newspapers, particularly NAPs, people read the tip in the paper then start betting on those horses more heavily which results in a lower than value-priced horse which creates great laying opportunities. If you combine that with some price ranges within the strategy then you'll have a very profitable means of making money.
Good afternoon, I downloaded the marias laying system method for horse racing. I am studying and reading Maria's method. but, one thing is not quite clear to me. How does she choose the horses for Lay? Why in the selections of races does Maria choose races following a sequence of Odds from the smallest to the largest? Example: Ecomium 1.40 Doncaster ... Backstreet Lad 1.55 Bangor ... Niobe 2.10 Doncaster ... Sound And Vision 2.25 Bangor ... My Immortal 2.45 Doncaster ... She Paparouna 3.10 Sandown ... Very Wise 3.45 Sandown ... Matty Tun 4.30 Doncaster ... Castle Oliver 5.15 Bangor And Maria enters Odds different from the one proposed by Betfair, such as: Ecomium 1.40 Doncaster ... 11/4, 3.4, £ 31.15; D Backstreet Lad 1.55 Bangor ... 10/3, 4.8, £ 18.69; D Niobe 2.10 Doncaster ... 11/2, 5.4, £ 18.69; D Sound And Vision 2.25 Bangor ... 5/1, 5.7, £ 18.69; D My Immortal 2.45 Doncaster ... 11/2, 7.2, £ 18.69; D Ela Paparouna 3.10 Sandown ... 6/1, 7.2, £ 18.69; D Very Wise 3.45 Sandown ... 4/1, 5.8, £ 18.69; D Matty Tun 4.30 Doncaster ... 2/13, 7.0, £ 18.69; D Castle Oliver 5.15 Bangor ... 8/1 *, 9.2, £ 12.24; D Why does she enter these Odds above, and not the Odds proposed by Betfair before the race starts? In my analysis, maria enters all pre-live races before the race starts, correct? Could you explain in more detail? Awaiting. Thanks. Carlos
if you read the method, this is what she (actually he) says (iv) Some of the selections tend to shorten in price and others tend to drift. The reality is that it's not possible, overall, to lay at SP and I would therefore be misleading people about my profits if I quoted the results to SP. So I'm going to keep two separate sets of results ... 1. SP + 10%: These results will quote all prices to SP + 10% (i.e. as if the price, from the layer's point of view, was 10% worse than SP). 2. My own actual results, recording the prices I've found and used.
Thanks Ben. Another great video. I like that you are using this video as a lesson in a number of key things... discipline and using long term thinking. Brilliant lessons ))))
Just a variation of 3% of the Bank increasing or decreasing.. Best staking plan I read was in a 70s book. level stakes for 10 12 or 15 bets depending on average odds . Then Stake up or down for next set... Most times Level stakes is always better as you do not have to rely on patterns.
Can you explain more about what you mean? For example, $10 capital, if you have 10 bets and the odds of each bet is 2.0, and you bet $1 on each bet, what happens if you lose? If 4 win and 6 lose, your capital is reduced to $8, then what do you do? Thanks
@@jasonl4237 It was from an old horse race book publication "Betting for Profit" written by the "Statistician" David Duncan It ran to 33 pages the broad outline being with levels compared to variable or fast increasing stakes it was always a safer bet. Whatever the pattern in a block of results levels gave same return . whereas fiddling with variable staking was way riskier.. If things went well and you got over a certain pts profits in a bet block the next set were increased . Or if a Loss remain on same levels ... Like all things you need a good system idea to run with it. Was not designed for Laying or trading Just basic Horse race punting. But the idea was sound IMO..
Hi mate, great video, downloaded the system, but where's is the 'cheat sheet' you mentioned? All that I've downloaded is the thread itself, did I miss something?
@@24magiccarrot I don't see a difference from before, are you a registered member with a login? Maybe that's the difference. I know Adrian was concerned that the more people used his website the less effective his ratings were because he was pushing money onto his selections and lowering the prices.
Ben, the Maria system has been the holy grail of many for years but what many don't seem to grasp is that every betting system, backing or laying, will make a profit in the bets are placed at odds with Value in your favour. If you constantly back above the true odds or lay below the true odds you will always make a profit in the long term even if you choose your selection with the pin and blindfold method! The trick to making a profit is long term betting with value. There is no staking formula that will turn a losing system into a profitable system. All Maria was doing was controlling the risk, the variation is stakes did not make the system more profitable.
I think laying a horse not to be placed could be a better solution. Especially as the odds are far shorter if you hit a lost. Plenty of terrible tipsters out there who always predict losers day in, day out.
PACIFIK I think a lot folk are after fast money and are getting deluded by all those online tipsters. More should be done to nail those affiliate tipsters draining innocent folk of there money.
@@SportsTradingLife I second that Ben. I Remember Slicers bet (with fondness lol). I think many people have had a go trying to find the 3rd bet without success, me included lol. I used Soccer Mystic in Bet Angel to model different scenarios without success. As far as I could tell you are always going to have a liability for the first 15-20 mins of the second half. But yes, it would be great if you could do a video on this too! :)
@@tonyburn it involved laying a combo on the halftime and fulltime markets, it was legit but no longer works with the efficiency of the markets nowadays.
Average odds of 6.0 = 1/6 = 16.66% chance, i know it was ''average'' odds, but 100(%) - 16.66(%) = 83.34 % So with an 85% strike rate that translates to: (85% strike rate versus 83.34% implied probability ) = a 1.66% edge, to have made £100,000 means 60,240.96 bets had to have been made (100,000/1.66). Then /by 303 days = 198 bets placed per day.....on average.... I don't buy it. But the Maria staking plan, is very similar (albeit a simple) version of Kelly's Criterion. So i don't buy the results, but the staking plan is one of the most sensible i've ever seen from a ''system''. And you're bang on abour discipline: bankroll management is everything :)
I DONT THINK THOSE CALCULATIONS ARE CORRECT , DONT FORGET THE SYSTEM IS COMPOUNDING PROFIT AND ALSO ITS NOT LIABILITY % OF THE BANK ITS STAKE INSTEAD WHICH MANY WONT BE ABLE TO FIGURE OUT , ITS STAKING OF TOTAL BANK COMPOUNDING AT EITHER 1% , 0.6% , 0,4% SO IF THE ODDS ARE 3.0 AND YOUR BANK IS £1000 PEOPLE MAY THINK 1% LIABILITY IS £10 SO STAKE SAYS £5 , TO WIN £5 , BUT IN REALITY THE LIABILITY IS £20 , TO WIN £10 PROFIT , PRETTY SURE I WORKED IT OUT AT 3000 BETS , IVE GOT AN algorithm THAT CAN BE PROGRAMMED FOR THOUSANDS OF VARIANTS AND IAM INTERESTED IN THE LAYS IVE GOT 1 THERE , £3012 BETS 2019 + , 93.43 STRIKE RATE , STARTING BANK £100 , 1% STAKEING COMPOUNDING , COMES IN AT A PROFIT OF £199,820.52 , , BUT THE ODDS CAN ANYTHING LIKE LOW AS 3 HIGH AS 400 YOU CANT PROGRAM IT FOR MARIAS LAY , BUT I CAN FIND SYSTEMS THATS HAVE OVER 85% LAY STRIKE RATE AND BSP 12 AND UNDER , I GOT TO GET TO WORK LIKE A MAD SCIENTIST
Maria’s father was connected with several bookmakers, and through her contacts, she was able to obtain privileged information that helped with her selections. No doubt this contributed considerably to her winnings.
If memory serves me, but could be wrong. Sure her thread was on The Punters Lounge. If I can remember, don't think she did give details on why she picked her selections, other than her knowledge of horses. Even to this day there are people who still believe it was fake, don't know why though.
Yes it is strange people think it is fake when it was so well documented. 100k isn't even THAT much money in the grand scheme of things either. Small minds I guess...
Adrian Massey's ratings were the best thing ever! I turned a starting bank of about £30.00 into just under £8,000. And then he closed it. The story was that his site had been hacked. It came back up for about 48 hours and was hacked again and he said that was the end. As he was a computer guy IRL it's a bit hard to believe. I find it more believable that he was threatened by bookies!
I'm no expert, but this my interpretation of Her finding "value". When you back, finding Value is a Horse that should win the race, but is priced at the top, or above where it should be in the market. eg, commentator says, "the horse was priced at 6, but won like a 2 dollar shot". (for Backers) Maria's principle was actually finding "Negative" Value. (for Layers) Where a horse is expected to do well, hence its lower price in the markets, but form or class wise suggests it really has no chance (85%), in the race. She needed 85% of them to lose. So she was looking for horses that were well supported,but had some kind of weakness or facing superior opposition, to keep her liability down. When all those stars lined up she had her "Value".
I once spent a stupid amount of money on a firm called BRIMARDON .....if you come across them DONT TOUCH THEM however I found a fab laying system by laying all the horses they said would win and it worked well for a time then of course they actually stumbled on a few winners hahaha
Might try this laying the underdog on Football, get a good range of odds between 5 and 10. A draw or lose would give a result - anyone know the stats on underdog winning the match?
My current strategy contains backing the dominant team to produce a goal in the first half. With my match reading skills my strike rate is 54%. 34% of the trades, the match draws at half time. In 12% of the trades the underdog produces a goal in the first half. This means with this strategy I would have a strike-rate of 88%. www.footballtraderx.com
Did she claim she was living in Latvia or from Latvia. Her name doesn’t sound Latvian in the slightest. Although plenty of people living there have really good spoken/written English, so who knows
Maria told me that she was living in London. I remember another person from Latvia wrote to her on the forum in Latvian...and they communicated to each other in that language on a few posts. These were the days before Google translator. :)
I did try writing a bot for this over the summer, but i lacked the commitment to sticking out a bad day - but here are my thoughts for what they are worth; its really just a staking plan that manages liability - thats fine, it then comes down to find the right races rather than the right horses - might sound obvious but look for races where you get at least 6 horses to fit to the staking plan.
They was a good layer on betfair hoese forum called waccoe , he/she always got 15/20/25 losers before hitting a winner ,and as you say ben he hit 2 winners and trolls came out never shared his picks again ,think his record was 36 winning lays over a weekend before a 3.5winner romped home ,wish he was still sharing lays would be perfect for this system
Wac has a private Facebook group, if you are of the Betfair forum thread that he posted on (now deleted) and you know him drop him a message im sure he will add you ,42 lays is his record 1 loss then another 26 on the trot
Is this not just taking advantage of longshot bias? Historical data shows that laying above odds of 6 should show a profit - but only after hundreds of bets.
If you have a system you normally keep it to yourself unless it is to your benefit, a 7/1 shot has a 12.5 % chance of winning meaning it has 87.5 of loosing so a system like this would be possible but it would take a fair amount of time and stress, but if you were a trader on betfair you could make a lot more money by giving away this simple system and making it go viral and then take advantage of the price movement
Agreed the problem also is that often on the exchanges a 7/1 shot will be often be about 10s which means you need an even higher strike rate. I think the mathematical staking makes sense but in reality no matter how shrewd your judgement you'll occasionally get horses that should have lost ending up winning if they were in second place and the leader fell at the last or the favourite pulled up or was hampered levelling the playing field.
She never revealed her selection method to anyone though, so he cannot tell you what he does not know but it is a handy staking plan if you can find the right selection method. She would put her lays on first and only post selections after she had done so, knowing that if thousands of followers then went to lay them, the odds would drift compared to the ones she took. So if she had revealed her method then everyone could find them for themselves and some would probably get matched earlier than her and push the odds out.
Is this the same 'Maria' that policed Adrian Massey's forum about 8 years ago now? If it is, she was a right pain in the a**e to be honest. I had some exchanges with her after she deleted a perfectly benign post that I put up. She became very defensive when I made a slight criticism of Massey's ratings. I can't remember what I said now, but I had some valid points I believe and she suddenly accused me of trying to sell something to members which was absolutely ridiculous. She demanded that I apologised (no idea what for) and it was at that point that I gave up with that appalling woman and her forum.
A strike rate of 85% is quoted as if thats good however in laying terms its not ..there is a system called Laypro 88 which has a strike rate of 88% and even with that a few losses can wipe you out completely
@@seanscanlon9067 And that's the Holy Grail which doesn't exist and will not ever exist. No one will ever give you the full story. 'Maria' had impeccable grasp of English language.
@@johnsargeant8358 It does exist but just needs to be discovered. Try this: Flat: 5f-6f races only NH:2m-2m2f races only 1. Note the highest rated Topspeed (TS) horse in the Racing Post.....If you go to each individual qualifying race and click on TS, it puts a blue box around those letters and arranges the ratings from highest to lowest. 2. Lay the first horse in the RP betting NOT within a rating of 10 of the highest TS rated......Example, highest TS rating 95, lay first in RP betting rated 84 or lower on TS (I know this is fairly obvious, but still.....) 3. If the potential selection has no TS then miss out that race. 4. If 2 or more horses have the same odds in the betting and are NOT within 10 of the highest TS, then you have 3 choices. i) lay both of them or all if more than 2 ii) lay the one with the lowest TS iii) miss out the race
I can see this working with finding your best +1.5 bets of the day and backing at 1.15-1.40. It's just the same as laying at 3.5 to 7.4. Don't fancy laying at 11.00 which is inverse to backing at 1.10 though! Makes you really whittle down your selection process. For eg. Am I prepared to put £500 on this game to have 2 goals in it, no trading! If you used the first two price brackets, you could back +1.5s between 1.15 and above (7.4 lay inverse).
You definitely could Ben. Just use a bank you are comfortable with and stick to the staking plan and if your selections have an edge the bank will grow. Doesn't have to be 500 quid!
@@SportsTradingLife Hi Ben, the £500 was just an example of where you might get to after a few months. After looking at the thread you posted, it was very surprising how little progress had been made after 2 or 3 months. It was only really the last 3 months where the bank absolutely flew out of control. How would you keep the discipline to make 1k, lose it, then carry on same stakes without going on tilt? Thanks for all your great videos Ben. Probably the best on the net. Your Ultimate Football Trading course taught me soooooo much mate.
@@SportsTradingLife Hi Ben, yes very committed. I will be paper trading (well, £2 stakes) my system qualifiers in October then, if successful, will get in touch for a November start. Many thanks.
Small point... you mention several times that Facebook wasn't invented in 2005 but it actually started in 2004. Obviously not as big as now, but yes it was around...
Great video! Maria lays was my motivation for doing my own variation on twitter only 12 days in but going really well, search 100pt lays if you want to follow my journey
Wow Adrian Massey takes me back. I have a claim to fame...I once created a thread on his forum dispelling the theory his 5* rated horses were worth a win bets. In fact over time I proved they should indeed be lay bets and posted them daily, outlining profits. Of course some were out to ridicule me and I was made out to be a heretic to go against Adrian and his highest rated selections. Alas it was the largest thread of conversation from what I remember, proving it was much more profitable to lay his highest rated horses. Just to say I was and still am a great admirer of AM and had a few emails from him as well as contributing to his charity as he ran many marathons many moons ago 🤗😇
Not your normal type of video Ben, whilst appreciating you may be wanting to reach out to a different audience , I'm not sure of your point with this one, no new information on a very old and almost mythical "web betting/staking system" , with no conclusions or thoughts - you have definitely produced a lot better sir and this is an area i'd stay well away from as it's without a doubt not as it seems
Lots of people who are new to the scene who have never heard the story before. May not be new to you but it is new and hopefully inspiring for many others.
So basically a bikini model from Latvia whose father knows something about horse races won £100k on Betfair....riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight :) Legit ! :) On a serious note, Never thought about trading horse races?
Me personally I prefer trading horse races. I am a massive football fan and I started out with football trading, but for me the horse market has more oppertunities and better price movements. I feel like I can make way much more money on horse racing than football. But that is just a personal preferences and way of trading.
@@raemanmusic I trade football mainly. I ve got lots of strats and its easier in my opinion...i think.Tried to trade pre-off horse races but when i saw how fast everything goes...that was it : )
@@temp911Luke Yeah you got to do with what is best for your style and gets you the most. It looks all over the place at first, but once you understand it can really be fun.
Anyone worth their salt knows, if a strategy requires a staking system you are going to go broke. The only way to lay horses successfully is to lay a loser with live pictures.
There's no strategy revealed here though and only a staking plan. The logic behind the plan is to potentially only lose a similar amount of money with each lay regardless of the odds, as opposed to laying to the same stake at odds of say 2.0 or 11.0, considering it takes many more bets to recover the loss at 11.0 than it does at 2.0
@@nomoretax With the right selection method though, then this staking plan will work is I suppose what I am really saying, because it potentially loses a similar amount on unsuccessful lays regardless of the odds, as opposed to being all over the place at level stakes depending on the odds. It was just meant as a straight laying method too and not really for trading.
i think backing the draw and betting for a draw is the same thing, your better off laying the draw as around 90% of games there is a goal being scored, but do your research on these stats first dont take my word for it.
@@betfairwizard8045 I was thinking backing 2 frequent score results in football with value odd 2-1 , 2-0 for team each round when they play home in league matches
@@travelandearnmoney what are the stats on these bets? i dont see the value in this strategy, am i missing something? please educate me on your methods :) i'm always looking to learn...
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
Did you guys enjoy this video? Planning on using the system yourself anytime soon? Let me know :)
I will give it a go
@@stephenhavell6389 Selection process is missing only staking plan present . this is interesting for those who have not encountered this staking plan before, but it has been available freely for sometime. Add the selection process and it will be great
Enjoy your trading material Ben. Member of football trading. Yet just don't understand why you have to have woman advertising all your videos.
@@samcassidy2725 We can get rid of the women if you like?
@@SportsTradingLife just don't see the point. Your knowledge /products have got you a following. No need for the pictures 👍
I don't know what Maria's selection process was, but if you are looking for value on laying horses look at horses that have been heavily tipped by the major newspapers, particularly NAPs, people read the tip in the paper then start betting on those horses more heavily which results in a lower than value-priced horse which creates great laying opportunities. If you combine that with some price ranges within the strategy then you'll have a very profitable means of making money.
Does this really work? Have you any figures to back up?
I already worked this one out for myself, but thank you Ben, it confirms the strtegy works
Is it still working?
Good afternoon, I downloaded the marias laying system method for horse racing.
I am studying and reading Maria's method. but, one thing is not quite clear to me.
How does she choose the horses for Lay?
Why in the selections of races does Maria choose races following a sequence of Odds from the smallest to the largest?
Example:
Ecomium 1.40 Doncaster ...
Backstreet Lad 1.55 Bangor ...
Niobe 2.10 Doncaster ...
Sound And Vision 2.25 Bangor ...
My Immortal 2.45 Doncaster ...
She Paparouna 3.10 Sandown ...
Very Wise 3.45 Sandown ...
Matty Tun 4.30 Doncaster ...
Castle Oliver 5.15 Bangor
And Maria enters Odds different from the one proposed by Betfair, such as:
Ecomium 1.40 Doncaster ... 11/4, 3.4, £ 31.15; D
Backstreet Lad 1.55 Bangor ... 10/3, 4.8, £ 18.69; D
Niobe 2.10 Doncaster ... 11/2, 5.4, £ 18.69; D
Sound And Vision 2.25 Bangor ... 5/1, 5.7, £ 18.69; D
My Immortal 2.45 Doncaster ... 11/2, 7.2, £ 18.69; D
Ela Paparouna 3.10 Sandown ... 6/1, 7.2, £ 18.69; D
Very Wise 3.45 Sandown ... 4/1, 5.8, £ 18.69; D
Matty Tun 4.30 Doncaster ... 2/13, 7.0, £ 18.69; D
Castle Oliver 5.15 Bangor ... 8/1 *, 9.2, £ 12.24; D
Why does she enter these Odds above, and not the Odds proposed by Betfair before the race starts?
In my analysis, maria enters all pre-live races before the race starts, correct?
Could you explain in more detail?
Awaiting.
Thanks.
Carlos
if you read the method, this is what she (actually he) says
(iv) Some of the selections tend to shorten in price and others tend to drift. The reality is that it's not possible, overall, to lay at SP and I would therefore be misleading people about my profits if I quoted the results to SP. So I'm going to keep two separate sets of results ...
1. SP + 10%: These results will quote all prices to SP + 10% (i.e. as if the price, from the layer's point of view, was 10% worse than SP).
2. My own actual results, recording the prices I've found and used.
Thanks Ben. Another great video. I like that you are using this video as a lesson in a number of key things... discipline and using long term thinking. Brilliant lessons ))))
Thanks for all your support Jonathon!
Just a variation of 3% of the Bank increasing or decreasing.. Best staking plan I read was in a 70s book. level stakes for 10 12 or 15 bets depending on average odds . Then Stake up or down for next set... Most times Level stakes is always better as you do not have to rely on patterns.
Can you explain more about what you mean? For example, $10 capital, if you have 10 bets and the odds of each bet is 2.0, and you bet $1 on each bet, what happens if you lose? If 4 win and 6 lose, your capital is reduced to $8, then what do you do? Thanks
@@jasonl4237 It was from an old horse race book publication "Betting for Profit" written by the "Statistician" David Duncan It ran to 33 pages the broad outline being with levels compared to variable or fast increasing stakes it was always a safer bet. Whatever the pattern in a block of results levels gave same return . whereas fiddling with variable staking was way riskier.. If things went well and you got over a certain pts profits in a bet block the next set were increased . Or if a Loss remain on same levels ... Like all things you need a good system idea to run with it. Was not designed for Laying or trading Just basic Horse race punting. But the idea was sound IMO..
I could just lay the horses recommend by my current tipsters, my strike rate will be a lot higher than Maria’s for sure.
@Cosmin Vaduva have you testing this system over a long period of time?
lol, my tipster couldnt recommend a winning horse if his house depended on it
Lol
Hi mate, great video, downloaded the system, but where's is the 'cheat sheet' you mentioned? All that I've downloaded is the thread itself, did I miss something?
Was it not on page 1 of the download?
@@SportsTradingLife didn't realise that was it, so yeah, it is! Cheers
Wow, a blast from the past. Adrian Massey was a ratings genius with his own website. I use to use his ratings back in the day 😀
the site is still open
@@markjackson8261 The site is still open but it doesn't give you a detailed analysis of every race anymore.
@@24magiccarrot I don't see a difference from before, are you a registered member with a login? Maybe that's the difference. I know Adrian was concerned that the more people used his website the less effective his ratings were because he was pushing money onto his selections and lowering the prices.
Ben, the Maria system has been the holy grail of many for years but what many don't seem to grasp is that every betting system, backing or laying, will make a profit in the bets are placed at odds with Value in your favour. If you constantly back above the true odds or lay below the true odds you will always make a profit in the long term even if you choose your selection with the pin and blindfold method! The trick to making a profit is long term betting with value. There is no staking formula that will turn a losing system into a profitable system. All Maria was doing was controlling the risk, the variation is stakes did not make the system more profitable.
I think laying a horse not to be placed could be a better solution. Especially as the odds are far shorter if you hit a lost. Plenty of terrible tipsters out there who always predict losers day in, day out.
I really wonder why people would use tipsters in the first place. Making other people richer.
PACIFIK I think a lot folk are after fast money and are getting deluded by all those online tipsters. More should be done to nail those affiliate tipsters draining innocent folk of there money.
around time 9:00 - have you found out when you lay backer´s stake 12 pounds at the highest odds 11 = liability is 120 (not 132) ???
Great video! Thanks for the pdf 🙂🙂
Great video, thanks Ben! Remember the original thread way back. Now could you do one on SLICER'S BET pleeeaaaze???
ooooh good idea Lisa!
@@SportsTradingLife I second that Ben. I Remember Slicers bet (with fondness lol). I think many people have had a go trying to find the 3rd bet without success, me included lol. I used Soccer Mystic in Bet Angel to model different scenarios without success. As far as I could tell you are always going to have a liability for the first 15-20 mins of the second half. But yes, it would be great if you could do a video on this too! :)
@@tonyburn it involved laying a combo on the halftime and fulltime markets, it was legit but no longer works with the efficiency of the markets nowadays.
Thanks Ben a good philiosphy around staking
Average odds of 6.0 = 1/6 = 16.66% chance, i know it was ''average'' odds, but 100(%) - 16.66(%) = 83.34 %
So with an 85% strike rate that translates to: (85% strike rate versus 83.34% implied probability ) = a 1.66% edge, to have made £100,000 means 60,240.96 bets had to have been made (100,000/1.66). Then /by 303 days = 198 bets placed per day.....on average....
I don't buy it.
But the Maria staking plan, is very similar (albeit a simple) version of Kelly's Criterion. So i don't buy the results, but the staking plan is one of the most sensible i've ever seen from a ''system''. And you're bang on abour discipline: bankroll management is everything :)
I DONT THINK THOSE CALCULATIONS ARE CORRECT , DONT FORGET THE SYSTEM IS COMPOUNDING PROFIT AND ALSO ITS NOT LIABILITY % OF THE BANK ITS STAKE INSTEAD WHICH MANY WONT BE ABLE TO FIGURE OUT , ITS STAKING OF TOTAL BANK COMPOUNDING AT EITHER 1% , 0.6% , 0,4% SO IF THE ODDS ARE 3.0 AND YOUR BANK IS £1000 PEOPLE MAY THINK 1% LIABILITY IS £10 SO STAKE SAYS £5 , TO WIN £5 , BUT IN REALITY THE LIABILITY IS £20 , TO WIN £10 PROFIT , PRETTY SURE I WORKED IT OUT AT 3000 BETS , IVE GOT AN algorithm THAT CAN BE PROGRAMMED FOR THOUSANDS OF VARIANTS AND IAM INTERESTED IN THE LAYS IVE GOT 1 THERE , £3012 BETS 2019 + , 93.43 STRIKE RATE , STARTING BANK £100 , 1% STAKEING COMPOUNDING , COMES IN AT A PROFIT OF £199,820.52 , , BUT THE ODDS CAN ANYTHING LIKE LOW AS 3 HIGH AS 400 YOU CANT PROGRAM IT FOR MARIAS LAY , BUT I CAN FIND SYSTEMS THATS HAVE OVER 85% LAY STRIKE RATE AND BSP 12 AND UNDER , I GOT TO GET TO WORK LIKE A MAD SCIENTIST
Maria’s father was connected with several bookmakers, and through her contacts, she was able to obtain privileged information that helped with her selections. No doubt this contributed considerably to her winnings.
Wrong!!
@@deletebilderberg Right!!
@@quicktips3858 I was thinking the same to be honest and makes sense
@@quicktips3858
‘Privileged information’ 🙄
Horses ‘which won’t be winning’ aren’t regularly available at 5/2 and shorter.
@@deletebilderberg move on man! One year later and u r still here...
If memory serves me, but could be wrong. Sure her thread was on The Punters Lounge. If I can remember, don't think she did give details on why she picked her selections, other than her knowledge of horses. Even to this day there are people who still believe it was fake, don't know why though.
Yes it is strange people think it is fake when it was so well documented. 100k isn't even THAT much money in the grand scheme of things either. Small minds I guess...
Sports Trading Life £100k isn’t that much money? Ok, now I need to speak to you. 😛
Adrian Massey's ratings were the best thing ever! I turned a starting bank of about £30.00 into just under £8,000. And then he closed it. The story was that his site had been hacked. It came back up for about 48 hours and was hacked again and he said that was the end. As he was a computer guy IRL it's a bit hard to believe. I find it more believable that he was threatened by bookies!
@Rita Cruz Yes it does. But only as an analysis site. Adrian no longer publishes his ratings.
I'm no expert, but this my interpretation of Her finding "value".
When you back, finding Value is a Horse that should win the race, but is priced at the top, or above where it should be in the market.
eg, commentator says, "the horse was priced at 6, but won like a 2 dollar shot". (for Backers)
Maria's principle was actually finding "Negative" Value. (for Layers)
Where a horse is expected to do well, hence its lower price in the markets, but form or class wise suggests it really has no chance (85%), in the race. She needed 85% of them
to lose.
So she was looking for horses that were well supported,but had some kind of weakness or facing superior opposition, to keep her liability down. When all those stars lined up she had her "Value".
I once spent a stupid amount of money on a firm called BRIMARDON .....if you come across them DONT TOUCH THEM however I found a fab laying system by laying all the horses they said would win and it worked well for a time then of course they actually stumbled on a few winners hahaha
Might try this laying the underdog on Football, get a good range of odds between 5 and 10. A draw or lose would give a result - anyone know the stats on underdog winning the match?
My current strategy contains backing the dominant team to produce a goal in the first half. With my match reading skills my strike rate is 54%. 34% of the trades, the match draws at half time. In 12% of the trades the underdog produces a goal in the first half. This means with this strategy I would have a strike-rate of 88%. www.footballtraderx.com
I tried this and it turns out i’m very good at picking winners!!! 😂
Should of been called the laying Maria system 😂😂
I am more interested in "the Laying Maria system", where can I download it? LOL
Im from Latvia. Betfair is banned in Latvia by government. Can use only with VPN. And i dont think VPN was in 05
Interesting!
Did she claim she was living in Latvia or from Latvia. Her name doesn’t sound Latvian in the slightest.
Although plenty of people living there have really good spoken/written English, so who knows
Miks Kubulins it was banned just couple of years ago
Maria told me that she was living in London. I remember another person from Latvia wrote to her on the forum in Latvian...and they communicated to each other in that language on a few posts. These were the days before Google translator. :)
I did try writing a bot for this over the summer, but i lacked the commitment to sticking out a bad day - but here are my thoughts for what they are worth; its really just a staking plan that manages liability - thats fine, it then comes down to find the right races rather than the right horses - might sound obvious but look for races where you get at least 6 horses to fit to the staking plan.
Were most of those horse drifters then and also how do you find value you didn't cover that?
Her laying them also caused them to drift too. She was definitely finding value but how she was finding it is the 6 figure question!
SOUND LIKE TO ME SHE HAD 4000 BETS PER YEAR 10 SELECTIONS A DAY
That's a good point
LATVIA COULD BE POSSIBLE , IVE HEARD OF A TOP TIPSTER FROM POLAND
Lots of Latvians have immigrated to the UK. Perhaps she was just a Latvian living in the UK?
Maria was simply using the daily donkey website to lay her horses ^^
How did she pick he selections? Or did she bet in every race?
They was a good layer on betfair hoese forum called waccoe , he/she always got 15/20/25 losers before hitting a winner ,and as you say ben he hit 2 winners and trolls came out never shared his picks again ,think his record was 36 winning lays over a weekend before a 3.5winner romped home ,wish he was still sharing lays would be perfect for this system
Wac has a private Facebook group, if you are of the Betfair forum thread that he posted on (now deleted) and you know him drop him a message im sure he will add you ,42 lays is his record 1 loss then another 26 on the trot
Is this not just taking advantage of longshot bias? Historical data shows that laying above odds of 6 should show a profit - but only after hundreds of bets.
how does she select horses for lay?
If you have a system you normally keep it to yourself unless it is to your benefit, a 7/1 shot has a 12.5 % chance of winning meaning it has 87.5 of loosing so a system like this would be possible but it would take a fair amount of time and stress, but if you were a trader on betfair you could make a lot more money by giving away this simple system and making it go viral and then take advantage of the price movement
Agreed the problem also is that often on the exchanges a 7/1 shot will be often be about 10s which means you need an even higher strike rate. I think the mathematical staking makes sense but in reality no matter how shrewd your judgement you'll occasionally get horses that should have lost ending up winning if they were in second place and the leader fell at the last or the favourite pulled up or was hampered levelling the playing field.
Some 7/1 shots have a better chance of winning than other 7/1 shots do. That;'s where value comes in.
There is no point telling us the staking plan without telling us how the selections are made.
She never revealed her selection method to anyone though, so he cannot tell you what he does not know but it is a handy staking plan if you can find the right selection method.
She would put her lays on first and only post selections after she had done so, knowing that if thousands of followers then went to lay them, the odds would drift compared to the ones she took. So if she had revealed her method then everyone could find them for themselves and some would probably get matched earlier than her and push the odds out.
Pay £657 for this guys course when he talks about himself for most of it.. I’m sure it’ll become clear
Is this the same 'Maria' that policed Adrian Massey's forum about 8 years ago now? If it is, she was a right pain in the a**e to be honest. I had some exchanges with her after she deleted a perfectly benign post that I put up. She became very defensive when I made a slight criticism of Massey's ratings. I can't remember what I said now, but I had some valid points I believe and she suddenly accused me of trying to sell something to members which was absolutely ridiculous. She demanded that I apologised (no idea what for) and it was at that point that I gave up with that appalling woman and her forum.
Forgot to add - what would the liability risk be on that lot.??
She ought to have picture on line by now
Sherlock Michaels
A strike rate of 85% is quoted as if thats good however in laying terms its not ..there is a system called Laypro 88 which has a strike rate of 88% and even with that a few losses can wipe you out completely
that's wehere the staking plan comes in. Also luck in the sense that you don;t want the losers to arrive consecutively
In backing terms its fantastic
Good video
Very clever at the time... never revealed selection process... alarm bells rang then... as they still do today...
That's the thing here and I've personally been aware of the staking plan for at least a decade but finding the right selection method is the problem.
@@seanscanlon9067 And that's the Holy Grail which doesn't exist and will not ever exist. No one will ever give you the full story. 'Maria' had impeccable grasp of English language.
@@johnsargeant8358 It does exist but just needs to be discovered. Try this:
Flat: 5f-6f races only
NH:2m-2m2f races only
1. Note the highest rated Topspeed (TS) horse in the Racing Post.....If you go to each individual qualifying race and click on TS, it puts a blue box around those letters and arranges the ratings from highest to lowest.
2. Lay the first horse in the RP betting NOT within a rating of 10 of the highest TS rated......Example, highest TS rating 95, lay first in RP betting rated 84 or lower on TS (I know this is fairly obvious, but still.....)
3. If the potential selection has no TS then miss out that race.
4. If 2 or more horses have the same odds in the betting and are NOT within 10 of the highest TS, then you have 3 choices.
i) lay both of them or all if more than 2
ii) lay the one with the lowest TS
iii) miss out the race
Yes remember masseys use to use it with pattern form when pattern form was free lol
No won’t be using the system
I can see this working with finding your best +1.5 bets of the day and backing at 1.15-1.40. It's just the same as laying at 3.5 to 7.4. Don't fancy laying at 11.00 which is inverse to backing at 1.10 though! Makes you really whittle down your selection process. For eg. Am I prepared to put £500 on this game to have 2 goals in it, no trading! If you used the first two price brackets, you could back +1.5s between 1.15 and above (7.4 lay inverse).
You definitely could Ben. Just use a bank you are comfortable with and stick to the staking plan and if your selections have an edge the bank will grow. Doesn't have to be 500 quid!
@@SportsTradingLife Hi Ben, the £500 was just an example of where you might get to after a few months. After looking at the thread you posted, it was very surprising how little progress had been made after 2 or 3 months. It was only really the last 3 months where the bank absolutely flew out of control. How would you keep the discipline to make 1k, lose it, then carry on same stakes without going on tilt? Thanks for all your great videos Ben. Probably the best on the net. Your Ultimate Football Trading course taught me soooooo much mate.
Ps. I am going to try a £300 to £10,000 challenge using same stakes but over 1.5s, not horse lays. Where should I post the progress?
@@bengrimshaw4811 Hey Ben, if you email me I can set up a thread in the members forum if you like? Have to be committed though!
@@SportsTradingLife Hi Ben, yes very committed. I will be paper trading (well, £2 stakes) my system qualifiers in October then, if successful, will get in touch for a November start. Many thanks.
Small point... you mention several times that Facebook wasn't invented in 2005 but it actually started in 2004. Obviously not as big as now, but yes it was around...
It was made available to the public for the first time in September 2006. :)
So that’s £330 a day that would be 10 winning max lays a day ? Doubt it very much
not really.. As her bank grew, so did the bets.
This indeed is very much possible.
Yeah as long as you can find the right selection method and that's the main issue here.
Yes the chicks are back!
Bit of a loophole since nobody said we can't put a book cover in the thumbnail ;-)
Great video! Maria lays was my motivation for doing my own variation on twitter only 12 days in but going really well, search 100pt lays if you want to follow my journey
Feel free to share your twitter name on here mate.
@@SportsTradingLife My twitter name is @DrawDeadDave 100pt Lays, totally free to follow 2 weeks into challenge and nearly quadrupled bank to 4k
Wow Adrian Massey takes me back. I have a claim to fame...I once created a thread on his forum dispelling the theory his 5* rated horses were worth a win bets. In fact over time I proved they should indeed be lay bets and posted them daily, outlining profits. Of course some were out to ridicule me and I was made out to be a heretic to go against Adrian and his highest rated selections. Alas it was the largest thread of conversation from what I remember, proving it was much more profitable to lay his highest rated horses. Just to say I was and still am a great admirer of AM and had a few emails from him as well as contributing to his charity as he ran many marathons many moons ago 🤗😇
Maybe they were overbet?
Not your normal type of video Ben, whilst appreciating you may be wanting to reach out to a different audience , I'm not sure of your point with this one, no new information on a very old and almost mythical "web betting/staking system" , with no conclusions or thoughts - you have definitely produced a lot better sir and this is an area i'd stay well away from as it's without a doubt not as it seems
Lots of people who are new to the scene who have never heard the story before. May not be new to you but it is new and hopefully inspiring for many others.
Sports trading life can u give some good tips ? What is your email I’d ?
So basically a bikini model from Latvia whose father knows something about horse races won £100k on Betfair....riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight :)
Legit ! :)
On a serious note, Never thought about trading horse races?
Me personally I prefer trading horse races. I am a massive football fan and I started out with football trading, but for me the horse market has more oppertunities and better price movements. I feel like I can make way much more money on horse racing than football. But that is just a personal preferences and way of trading.
@@raemanmusic I trade football mainly. I ve got lots of strats and its easier in my opinion...i think.Tried to trade pre-off horse races but when i saw how fast everything goes...that was it : )
@@temp911Luke Yeah you got to do with what is best for your style and gets you the most. It looks all over the place at first, but once you understand it can really be fun.
@@raemanmusic If you ever upload one of your trading sessions let me know. Would be great to see some ideas. Have a good week ! :)
@@temp911Luke thanks you too. I will probably make video somewhere in the future. I am not the best at teaching. But maybe it could help people :)
Plz I need ur telegram channel
not any telegram
Anyone worth their salt knows, if a strategy requires a staking system you are going to go broke. The only way to lay horses successfully is to lay a loser with live pictures.
There's no strategy revealed here though and only a staking plan.
The logic behind the plan is to potentially only lose a similar amount of money with each lay regardless of the odds, as opposed to laying to the same stake at odds of say 2.0 or 11.0, considering it takes many more bets to recover the loss at 11.0 than it does at 2.0
@@seanscanlon9067 that's right. It's a staking plan and not a trading strategy.
@@nomoretax With the right selection method though, then this staking plan will work is I suppose what I am really saying, because it potentially loses a similar amount on unsuccessful lays regardless of the odds, as opposed to being all over the place at level stakes depending on the odds.
It was just meant as a straight laying method too and not really for trading.
in which pre game or inplay football strategy can I use maria system ?
Hi Ben. In football trading or betting is using this system about back draw or bet for draw?
i think backing the draw and betting for a draw is the same thing, your better off laying the draw as around 90% of games there is a goal being scored, but do your research on these stats first dont take my word for it.
@@betfairwizard8045 I was thinking backing 2 frequent score results in football with value odd 2-1 , 2-0 for team each round when they play home in league matches
@@betfairwizard8045 yes I wrote wrong..
@@travelandearnmoney what are the stats on these bets? i dont see the value in this strategy, am i missing something? please educate me on your methods :) i'm always looking to learn...
@@travelandearnmoney fair enough mate, i susally type 'can' when i mean 'can't', big difference ;)