SP500 After the 1972 Historic Winning Streak...
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- Опубликовано: 8 авг 2024
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In today's episode of the Stock Market Brief Show, we're diving deep into the financial markets, drawing parallels between the bullish trends of the early '70s and our current situation. We'll explore the aftermath of those historic rallies, examining key indicators like the inverted yield curve and its implications for potential market corrections. Through a technical lens, we'll analyze parabolic moves in stocks like Nvidia, comparing them to historical patterns to predict possible outcomes. Additionally, we discuss macroeconomic factors, including stagflation and credit growth, to gauge the economic landscape's influence on the markets. Our journey includes a look at the Federal Reserve's actions and the potential for rate cuts, alongside an analysis of commercial loan demands and tightening standards. This episode is not just a history lesson but a guide to understanding how past trends might inform future market movements. Join us as we navigate through these complex financial waters, armed with charts, data, and a keen eye for the signals that forecast the market's direction.
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You would have thought that Newton understood gravity... 😎
The apple will inevitably fall.
Greed is obviously a stronger force...
Good stuff. I really enjoy your Twitch streams and the Discord is a great value as well!
This is a really great video made. Very insightful and backed by data and great analysis. Thumbs up. Love that Newton history lesson haha.
Great research, thanks
Great episode. Thanks.
Thank you
Excellent analysis. Much thanks.
I think one thing that makes forecasting difficult lies in how certain metrics are measured. The way inflation is calculated today is not the same as it used to be and unemployment figures don’t provide an accurate representation either
And the tendency for the political class to cook the books because of how the market responds violently to news. The establishment vs household survey for unemployment is absolutely wild saying completely opposite things, and the household survey definitely matches the people and companies I know. It's sort of at a point where only TA can be used for analysis because nothing else can be believed anyway.
this guy has never heard of mathematics before, thinks toddler finger painting ta is 'analysis
I have heard the argument that 1) many employers offer severance packages, which could delay filing for unemployment, and 2) many companies are utilizing a "silent sacking" whereby they make your job unbearable and you quit "willingly." There's also the fact that many companies are trying everything they can not to lay off good workers after struggling to get them after the pandemic.
I experienced all of this as a trader since 1979 all was very interesting. Now we must be very cautious.
Can you add a CTA buying chart to your analysis? One of the biggest risks/triggers for the seasonal FEB sell off in the sp500 will be the CTA buying machines. It's almost like they are playing chicken with each other. As soon as the first one starts selling they will all pile in to the exit door!
Two differences. Money supply and access to daily options and computing power here . The last few days definitely lots of call options
Is it really as simple as "un-inverted yield curve" means sell?
nobody can time it. you will be too late if you try.
Take profits and only invest what you are willing to lose.
When the next bottom comes, you will get beautiful cheap entries.... worth the wait.. even if it taeks another 5 months or 1 more year.
Historically yes 100% of the time
The markets will run until the Fed cuts…been that way since 1969….once Fed cuts it’s only after that the market will drop 50% ++…the uninversion of the Yield curve as other poster described…is 100% indicator that markets will reverse…not correct …rather …reverse trend
How similar is the S&P to what the NASDAQ did in 2000?
Bubble much bigger across all assets. Huge differences
M2 money supply would imply that inflation will continue down and possibly be deflation.if that comes around I think it would work inversely to jobs, albeit deflation will usher in job cuts, which will usher in rate cuts, thereby uninviting the curve as we move into recession.
Your forgot the NFT bubble 😅👍🏻
Hours worked getting back towards Covod low of 2020.
higher we go
That chart with Newton is legendary 😂
With new gov debt of 8% of GDP recession is impossible in the moment.
I can't sell or cash out of NVDA, my Capital Gains taxes will be huge. That's the Dilemma.
I think that we took out the old highs meaningfully and its hard to have a bear case at the moment, but were coming into weakness period id be on guard here this is very very dangerous spot
But macro charts without log scales will always look parabolic.
7:32 The yield curve un-inverting is only deadly when the un-inversion happens due to bullish price action in the overall stock market. Last year we almost got an un-inversion from a overall bearish market. This year we have a possible un-inversion in a overall bullish market..
Not used to bear Mike
Make sure to watch till end for more context haha.
All in good fun! You da man Mike!
Watched twice*
Dont count out stagflation yet
Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie it’s advisable you work with a financial coach to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
Apt!! I was self-managing my portfolio but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $1.2M portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 28%.
Geez! Kick down those Wall Street doors !! Would you mind disclosing info of this person guiding you please? my problem is I do not trust my guts in today's mkt
Sure. Camille Anne Hector is the analyst that helps me. She has a large following and is easily found online. She has extensive understanding as I have made so much since following her.
Found her, I wrote her an email. Looking forward to what she has to say in my situation, I plan to start 2024 on a woodnote financially.
Like your videos but I've seen 100's of videos comparing historical charts that just haven't repeated themselves already these past 2 years. Gotta ignore this one again as it's worked so far for the other 99 crash videos I've seen recently. lmfao
Are people saying its going to repeat?
The thumbnail/title infers that we should compare the two…
Non farms payroll cannot accurately account for immigrant labor. Watching the news over the past few months and it’s easy to see why NFP came in hot hot hot.
Look at Government jobs vs non Government jobs. Jobs are being lost right and left, but the Gov hiring is skyrocketing. Skewing the numbers.
Weve been in stagflation for 2 years already... propaganda says otherwise... reality says all time high in homelessness, inflation, house hold debt. A crash will statt within one year of the yield reinversion
Jobs - massive new Gov Jobs
Like 34!
So all we go long 😊
👍🙏🤗
another dumb bear
Another winning week for AI and EV sectors. SOUN..33 % Gains week. SoundHound. After SYNQ3 Restaurant Solutions acquisition now the Global Leader in Voice Ai .ARM 48 % Gains. FSR . Fisker. New Electrified Tour to 17 Cities and new dealership partnerships. Rivian...Xos Trucks...Lion Electric, more. Thumbs up video/ comment. Thanks.
Looking at the past has no bearing on what will happen, go and learn probability theory and stop yapping about nonsense.
you sound like a guy who cant trade as good as me haha
yeah sure, someone who trades for a living isnt as good as a bum who begs on patreon and makes youtube vlogs, makes sense, surely you work at goldman sachs or some hedge fund right?
You can't just overlay rate cut data and drawdowns without context. The RATES were being cut then because the economy was going to the dogs and hence was a reaction to the economic down turn which was also REFLECTED by the market. However, TODAY'S ECONOMY is actually getting stronger with better and improving DATA - jobs, inflation, GDP. Which is also why Powell is going on delaying ... Wait for it.... RATE CUTS! Because there is NO NEED for him to cut rates... So just overlying historical charts without any CONTEXT is shallow and meaningless! It's EASY to shout market will CRASH when the market is making an ATH... Any idiot can do that! That's meaningless. The "recession morons" have been screaming meltdown for the last two years. If you listened to them and exited the market, you would have missed this epic bull run! So these shollow and thoughtless videos mean nothing. Even a broken clock is right twice a day!
would be interesting to see the data of jobs, inflation, GDP , at market peaks prior the rate cuts of past recessions
Also Real GDI is negative in theory they are meant to be the same… not calling a recession but looking at history this playing out the same way. Calling yourself a great investor in a bull market is foolish
Isn't this market great, why we don't have to guess we can get confirmation. We have seasonality. The trend is your friend to the end, so I mean untill op ex this week I think you look to play calls but were gonna correct any bull that doesn't think we're gonna have a vicious correction lol then stay long stay all in add, personally I'd wait for a pull back and or correction before I added to longs other then scalping calls a few days