Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
You can start by dollar-cost averaging instead of buying a lump sum at once. Also, consult a fiduciary with crypto expertise for informed buying and selling decisions since talks of a bitcoin ETF approval. Time in the market is more valuable than timing it. Using this approach, I grew my crypto holdings from $50k in 2017 to $690k in 2023.
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from *Gertrude Margaret Quinto* to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Eric is one of the analyst that I have been following for sometime and who has not changed his tune about recession. It takes a lot of conviction to stick with your analysis, and for Eric this comes easy as he is thorough and deeply analytical. Deep respect.
He made a "recession somewhere between June 2023 and June 2024" call on Adam Taggart's show in May 2023, I believe. And that prediction still seems plausible to me.
so I am a layman and don't know economic. but reading the graph, isn't it saying we are already in a recession? and start to recover? even it doesn't tell the magnitude. what am I readying wrong?
Dude is consistently wrong I gotta give credit to his ability to find another correlation to predict the next recession. Michael Burry would be proud..
@@Mrwatson185just becos ponzi scheme is still going on and beyond his control doesn’t mean he is wrong. He doesn’t control govt or fed. But this Ponzi scheme will end.
This man has been predicting a recession for 2 years now while we keep blowing past GDP and unemployment estimates. Just because someone presents something with pretty charts doesn't make it correct. It's just wishful bear porn.
Yeah I love how he used the thumbnail with the current year and the zig zags with black and red! No one is doing that thumbnail graph these days! Stoked for the 2025 version!
Yeah - it actually seems plausible that enough massaging of data and gaslighting might push the day of reckoning past November. Looking at all the trends and FRED data, Q2-Q3 2024 seems the most likely point for that unemployment spike that accompanies every recession, but it hasn't cracked yet, so hard to tell.
Bingo. Current administration is probably the most criminal of all time. They are doing something behind the scenes. Most likely illegal. To make sure it happens after they lose the election. Because they will lose and they know it.
Funny part is that the longer we string it out by playing various games the worse it'll eventually be because our options will be exhausted with no fix to the underlying problems.
You’re only the second source I’ve found relating LEI indicators to recessions. I’ve always wondered why no one else talks about it as an indicator. Great video!
Found it - was “Pit Bull” by Martin Schwartz read about 10 years ago (to put it in perspective how long it’s been since I ran across the 2nd source discussing the LEI!). Was one of the biggest nuggets from the book I took and has helped immensely. Began moving out of long positions earlier in the year and trade only very short term when there is a very compelling TA chart.
@@vishnu2699That's probably very true, however CC debt is through the roof, most likely because people can't use their home as a piggy bank via cash out refis. And car repos are going nuts, also lending evidence to a recession coming.
With the current amount of government spending it is difficult to fall into a recession, once that stops, a recession will occur. If the government does not stop spending and going into debt, a default or hyperinflation is inevitable.
Excellent point sir. Your second sentence is dead on and I agree 100%. The only problem I see with your first sentence is that the Fed has raised interest rates so fast that the effects of this have yet to truly hit home with corporate earnings. By the time the economic indicators contract (which should happen sometime this spring/summer) it will be too late for the Fed to react. It's no coincidence that in reality every recession starts when rates start FALLING, contrary to what everyone thinks and what's supposed to happen. Bond yields have plummeted in the last 2 months, which I believe is a warning sign of a bear market but is being interpreted as the exact opposite. The only tool left for the Fed will be another round of stimulus which will send the M2 skyrocketing and will trigger the type of inflation we saw in the 70's. So to summarize, the hyperinflation you refer to as "inevitable" may be much closer than we think. Inflation is the killer of capitalism, just look at Argentina, Venezuela, Greece, and the Weimar republic of Germany in the 1920's. The only way to avoid this is for the Fed to cut off the spending and let the stock market regulate itself by crashing like it was supposed to in 2008 and 2020.
Eric, keep on fighting brother! Sending all the positive vibes over to you. We need you to keep making these amazing videos on macro economics for many, many years!
I love this! Investors were and still are so hype that the stock market ended on a positive note. However all we did was go in a circle over the last 2 years. We have yet to crack 4818.62 on the S&P 500 index. On top of that the stock market is not the economy so the dynamics will always tell a different story. Not to mentioned the fed funds rate has been held steady at 5.50%. The lag effect has yet to kick in. Just like Eric mentioned the yield curve inversion of the 10yr &3mo have been inverted for quite some time. Historically the inversion has a 70% success ratio, but it might have changed. Honestly I really like this indicator that eric mentioned. People get far too bullish as soon as we get a little movement in a positive direction without considering where we are in the tightening cycle. We still have to go through interest rate cuts. while the economy reacts to everything else happening. Not to mention geopolitical tensions, and an unsustainable pile of debt. Of course we never know exactly how things will play out. but I'm excited to see what happens over the next 5 years. Great video!
its not the ppl, the media kept pushing the narrative and in denial with catchphrase "its diferent this time". With us election around the corner, history show(not always) when near election maket tends to bullish. edit : Either way it goes, we should be prepared, as the quote says: 'When there's blood on the street, it's time to buy.' Statistics also show that we have more billionaires after COVID than before COVID. So, take it as an opportunity rather than being afraid of it. It's where money is made
I think the video is sound. Generally speaking, however, I think you're right. We've been hearing "recession" (except it's not -white house) for a good number of years. 2008 was bad. Name brand restaurants closing up on the side of the road bad (McDonald's, KFC, Waffle House, etc.). You could pull off an exit and find that there's literally no place to grab a sandwich. I hadn't seen that before in my lifetime. What we're in right now is different. Never before had the government shut down everything for a year plus. (and, if we learned anything from that: never again). At the same time you have job opening signs everywhere but no one seems to want to work. Inflation is bad - we all see that (except the white house), but that's what you get for paying people to be home and do nothing for several years - the loss in the value of currency. At the same time, interest rates have gone up, we've experienced supply change issues, some of this is best seen at the car dealers with the roller coaster they're on: - everyone stay home (car sales go down) - car production goes down - dwindling / almost no cars on the lot - dealers take advantage (not saying they're wrong) and start adding dealer markups to the tune of $5-10+K. - car lots start filling back up. - car sales are down further - car lots are overflowing and now dealers are paying interest on cars they can't sell - somewhere in there manufacturers raised MSRP - "because" (I get keeping with inflation but a good number of them are well over that figure) It's pretty well screwed now. With higher interest rates people can't afford the car hey once could and now that car is $30K more. Same bit with housing. If you were thinking about buying, now it's rougher because the interest rates are up. All of that should put a drag on the economy... Still... I see people eating out, regularly, and doing things and I think this may be part of the COVID nonsense. Essentially I think people are in the "I've already hunkered down for 1+ years (depending on where you live). I'm done with that." I just think we're in unprecedented waters right now and it's not quite like the clockwork picture painted in the video or what people normally expect.
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
She's fantastic and totally not a scammer that tries to lure in gullible idiots via RUclips comments! I have grown my initial investment of 87 cents and three pairs of only half used socks to a fortune of over $950000000 in just 26 days!
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I think the problem with trying to predict a recession through indicators and data is to liken a recession to a thing rather than a circumstance. Every recession had a unique cause. A recession is like an economy telling a crazy story to its buddies at the bar. They are closer to case studies than they are some data point. The reason I'm skeptical of this analysis is because the worst seems honestly behind us. Inflation is down from its highs, unemployment is low, some of the biggest bank failures ever didnt lead to a contagion. I will be willing to change my mind if I am wrong.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
What impresses me most about Veronica Hoy is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
The one factor that has changed significantly since 2007 is the size of USG deficits. Could borrowing 5-15% of GDP each year prevent a recession? What effects does it have on economic activity? We have never seen such deficits in the US over such a long period of time.
Woah for real? I'm so excited. Rebecca Hickman strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
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I'm wondering how many recessions this indicator actually predicted vs how many would have predicted in hindsight. I searched for its history and it's easy to find. Also, a technical recession already happened.
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
I agree. This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
The avg. American is having a tough time, I know I am not alone. There are others in same position as me. By certain statistics: 22% of americans have no retirement savings. 64% are worried that they will not have money in latter years while 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they have to work part-time in retirement. How can I best grow the 120k I have saved so far for retirement which has 0:02 depleted over the years?
I agree with the reply above. I also think you should think about steps you can take to start. Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen even.
I'm considering a review of my $1million portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1M in returns on investments.
But if I'm reading the chart at 1:16 correctly: every time the blue line dips into the red, the gray areas are showing that the economy is already in a recession. But that doesn't seem to be the case right now. Does that mean we are in the clear, that its going to happen any day now or that it could still be another year before the economy really takes a hit??
This has been my view too. I'm still in equities until that yeild curve inversion starts to get close to reverting. There will be trouble soon after. I'd say we see the start of it by the summer when some of those larger rate hikes hit their 18 month mark.
Same I didn't know about this indicator I was looking off the inverted yield curve. It looks like when the yield starts normalizing then things fall into a recession. As much as people have been demanding fed cuts, it's almost always during fed cuts when the market drops. Been saving money the past year putting it in CDs, been rather nice. Probably buy my first house if a crash happens put like 50% down.
The LEI is now positive and has been for two prints. "The LEI did not signal a recession for the second consecutive month" - the conference board. Now what?
Interesting that LEI and yield curve have never failed calling a recession - while at the same time on 12/28/2023 a breadth thrust occurred ( sp500 summation cycles from
Stock market numbers reflect price. Just because prices are high does not mean the underlying economy is healthy. It can equally mean a weak dollar. Likewise, pointing to higher stock prices in an inflationary economy like it's a good thing is stupid.
"Economic fundamentals have clearly not changed." I guess stable, low inflation, low jobless claims and rising GDP are not economic fundamentals?! But don't worry, if you keep predicting a recession year after year, you will eventually be proven right.
I'm getting back into the stock market after staying on the sidelines for some years. Right now i have $2 million from the sale of my airbnb properties and i am thinking about doing a 70/30 stocks bond ratio. What are your thoughts on that?
While 2 million $$ might seem a lot, one wrong move could significantly erode it. Therefore, be super careful how and where you invest. Best to diversify while keeping 70-80% of it in safe investments. Also with your budget i'd suggest you consider financial advisory.
Had a good run during my first year in the fin-market, I assumed I had a hang on it. However, things changed during the pandemic, and I needed to diversify into safe assets, so I approached a coach who devised a structure that matched my annual goal of 45%
@@dogmom-pt5we Who is the coach that advises you? I'm in urgent need of one; my stock portfolio is still in the red, even though there was an early boost this year.
Monica Amanda McClure is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Olivia Maria Lucas focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
Great info as always. Question I have is has there every been such a 'printing of money' as in recent years? Could the 'new' money be raising the economy in such a manner that it prevents a recession as predicted by the CBLI? At the costs of elevated prices, high stock markets and realty to account for the 'new' 6 trillion infusion?
So i have a bit of money that i want to invest. should i invest all in my selected etfs or invest about 50% and keep the rest as a cash reserve for a possible recession
Two main graphs were brought and both of them show that the indicators are plunging mostly while that recession was already on. Today, the indicators are relatively worse than the other periods yet no recession is happening right now and unemployment is still historically zero.
Give it until August of this year and we are a couple rate cuts in. That's when you'll see unemployment start to pick up real steam should it go above 6.88 Million
These moves takes many months if not years to play out. You have to be patient. Just because this signals a recession doesn’t mean it will happen next week or even next month. I mean, we could and and probably are in a recession right now, but in order to capitulate into a bottom it will probably be late 2024 at the EARLIEST.
@@Dr.HowieFeltersnatch actually, I do not deny that. The official definition is two quarters of negative growth and we already saw that, even just barely, while the mass media denied and covered for that. We also had a good quarter that made everyone forget about the 2-3 poor ones. On top of that, why do we even need some official announcement of a recession? Is it to 'sell for newspapers' or exploit against whoever is the current administration? Is it to frighten people and companies even more?
In the "Real GDP or Real GDI?" I don't understand why an increase in the curve for the GDI indicates falling when it shows growing higher, to a higher percentage going up to 2.9% vs the Real GDP curve shows a decline to -0.1%, what am I missing? @EPBResearch
When you are talking about economy, it is slim to impossible to predict a recession and how deep it will be. I agree that all indicator pointing to a recession at the end of Q2-Q3 this year, but that can change.
Good video. I would suggest not changing the colour coding between slides, as GDI/GDP switch colours at approx 5:42 mark, which can be confusing if the viewer does not look at the legend again.
As someone young and new in the economy and stock market, the video is very good and informative, but i still to some degree struggle to conclude, so the indicators point to a recession sometime in 2024, if rules are followed?
This is not a hate comment or anything, but can anyone explain why just combining indicators that all have false signals built into one suddenly makes it super accurate? wouldn't their false indicators still be feeding into the combined analysis? That's a genuine question here, I hope someone with a big brain can help me out.
They all have "occasional" false signals. However, they are not likely to all have false signals all at the same time. It's basically taking all signals and averaging together, lessening the impact of a false signal from one or two of the indicators. It's a similar philosophy to repeating an experiment 1000 times and taking the average of the result. You may have some outliers, but by averaging it all it gives you a decent idea of what will happen. My potential criticism and question though, based on light research, is that this index seems to place alot of weight on goods as opposed to services, where services make up a much bigger portion of the US economy. But perhaps it still works.
@@mattc1817 thanks, I tend to never try and predict the stock market but it's entertaining enough these indicators. Just seen too many videos that get predictions horribly wrong even though they seem to have data to back up. Market will always suprise.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
The stock market has been one of the only major (+) components of the LEI. Stocks always are last to display recession signals. Perfect track record. Is this time different..?
Really enjoy your videos! After researching the LEI, one criticism is that is weighs goods much more than services, when services make up 85% of the US economy. How would you respond to this criticism? Thanks!
Absolutely love it!! The journey is not always easy, embrace persistence, patience and perseverance. Outline your goal and pull your efforts together to attain that goal. I had a fair share of struggles before diving into crypto last year. And let me tell you, it completely changed my life! So don't lose hope
Spot on. The market presents a lot of opportunities to create passive income, with the right skill and proper understanding. Whether you’re not sure about what to invest in, or you don’t have time to manage your assets, just make sure to consult an advisor. I partner with Olivià CharIotte OswaId.
I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
You see in the stock market, bigger risk begets bigger results that can work in the bulls' favor. I think investors who are wary of the changing market trends should seek out bear/bull mrkt directions from certified strategists.
Where is that a *leading* index? It always plunges into the red zone only after the recession had already started. It is a lagging indicator, albeit with a very short lag. But definitely not leading.
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own.
Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
incredible, a fantastic start to financial independence! How can I contact your FA.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
You can start by dollar-cost averaging instead of buying a lump sum at once. Also, consult a fiduciary with crypto expertise for informed buying and selling decisions since talks of a bitcoin ETF approval. Time in the market is more valuable than timing it. Using this approach, I grew my crypto holdings from $50k in 2017 to $690k in 2023.
@@hunter-bourke21 Amazing! I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same fiduciary and how I can get in touch with them?
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from *Gertrude Margaret Quinto* to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Eric is one of the analyst that I have been following for sometime and who has not changed his tune about recession. It takes a lot of conviction to stick with your analysis, and for Eric this comes easy as he is thorough and deeply analytical. Deep respect.
He made a "recession somewhere between June 2023 and June 2024" call on Adam Taggart's show in May 2023, I believe. And that prediction still seems plausible to me.
so I am a layman and don't know economic. but reading the graph, isn't it saying we are already in a recession? and start to recover? even it doesn't tell the magnitude. what am I readying wrong?
Dude is consistently wrong I gotta give credit to his ability to find another correlation to predict the next recession. Michael Burry would be proud..
Has he predicted anything correctly yet?
@@Mrwatson185just becos ponzi scheme is still going on and beyond his control doesn’t mean he is wrong. He doesn’t control govt or fed. But this Ponzi scheme will end.
A 6-minute _Masterpiece!_ Compelling. Intuitive. Engaging. Graphically brilliant.
This man has been predicting a recession for 2 years now while we keep blowing past GDP and unemployment estimates. Just because someone presents something with pretty charts doesn't make it correct. It's just wishful bear porn.
Yeah I love how he used the thumbnail with the current year and the zig zags with black and red! No one is doing that thumbnail graph these days! Stoked for the 2025 version!
Calling a recession these days seems to be held back by politics. Nobody wants to be in charge when it hits.
Yeah - it actually seems plausible that enough massaging of data and gaslighting might push the day of reckoning past November. Looking at all the trends and FRED data, Q2-Q3 2024 seems the most likely point for that unemployment spike that accompanies every recession, but it hasn't cracked yet, so hard to tell.
Bingo. Current administration is probably the most criminal of all time. They are doing something behind the scenes. Most likely illegal. To make sure it happens after they lose the election. Because they will lose and they know it.
If trump wins they are going to dump the economy on his watch.
Funny part is that the longer we string it out by playing various games the worse it'll eventually be because our options will be exhausted with no fix to the underlying problems.
Just run a 7-8% budget deficit and economy keeps chucking along...🚞
You’re only the second source I’ve found relating LEI indicators to recessions. I’ve always wondered why no one else talks about it as an indicator. Great video!
Found it - was “Pit Bull” by Martin Schwartz read about 10 years ago (to put it in perspective how long it’s been since I ran across the 2nd source discussing the LEI!). Was one of the biggest nuggets from the book I took and has helped immensely. Began moving out of long positions earlier in the year and trade only very short term when there is a very compelling TA chart.
Because everyone is still in Vegas, on a cruise, in the Hawaii, Caribbean etc with a 2-3% mortgage rate. So this time it is different.
@@vishnu2699or they’re up 200% in 6 months on their crypto portfolio
@@vishnu2699That's probably very true, however CC debt is through the roof, most likely because people can't use their home as a piggy bank via cash out refis. And car repos are going nuts, also lending evidence to a recession coming.
With the current amount of government spending it is difficult to fall into a recession, once that stops, a recession will occur. If the government does not stop spending and going into debt, a default or hyperinflation is inevitable.
Private investment has also increased we have record investment in manufacturing right now in the United States.
Excellent point sir. Your second sentence is dead on and I agree 100%. The only problem I see with your first sentence is that the Fed has raised interest rates so fast that the effects of this have yet to truly hit home with corporate earnings. By the time the economic indicators contract (which should happen sometime this spring/summer) it will be too late for the Fed to react. It's no coincidence that in reality every recession starts when rates start FALLING, contrary to what everyone thinks and what's supposed to happen. Bond yields have plummeted in the last 2 months, which I believe is a warning sign of a bear market but is being interpreted as the exact opposite. The only tool left for the Fed will be another round of stimulus which will send the M2 skyrocketing and will trigger the type of inflation we saw in the 70's. So to summarize, the hyperinflation you refer to as "inevitable" may be much closer than we think. Inflation is the killer of capitalism, just look at Argentina, Venezuela, Greece, and the Weimar republic of Germany in the 1920's. The only way to avoid this is for the Fed to cut off the spending and let the stock market regulate itself by crashing like it was supposed to in 2008 and 2020.
There are multiple economies in Europe that are spending more as a % of GDP than the US is, and they’re already in recession.
Eric, keep on fighting brother! Sending all the positive vibes over to you. We need you to keep making these amazing videos on macro economics for many, many years!
No one positive from him. He always talk about recession and u think he is positive??
@@tapeworm5506 he's battling cancer right now. nice one, tape worm...
Hope your health is doing well man. Good to see you keep producing content. All else is secondary
Soldiering through 🫡
I love this! Investors were and still are so hype that the stock market ended on a positive note. However all we did was go in a circle over the last 2 years. We have yet to crack 4818.62 on the S&P 500 index. On top of that the stock market is not the economy so the dynamics will always tell a different story. Not to mentioned the fed funds rate has been held steady at 5.50%. The lag effect has yet to kick in. Just like Eric mentioned the yield curve inversion of the 10yr &3mo have been inverted for quite some time. Historically the inversion has a 70% success ratio, but it might have changed. Honestly I really like this indicator that eric mentioned. People get far too bullish as soon as we get a little movement in a positive direction without considering where we are in the tightening cycle. We still have to go through interest rate cuts. while the economy reacts to everything else happening. Not to mention geopolitical tensions, and an unsustainable pile of debt. Of course we never know exactly how things will play out. but I'm excited to see what happens over the next 5 years. Great video!
its not the ppl, the media kept pushing the narrative and in denial with catchphrase "its diferent this time". With us election around the corner, history show(not always) when near election maket tends to bullish.
edit : Either way it goes, we should be prepared, as the quote says: 'When there's blood on the street, it's time to buy.' Statistics also show that we have more billionaires after COVID than before COVID. So, take it as an opportunity rather than being afraid of it. It's where money is made
You've been predicting an imminent recession for like 3 years (at least).
I think the video is sound. Generally speaking, however, I think you're right. We've been hearing "recession" (except it's not -white house) for a good number of years.
2008 was bad. Name brand restaurants closing up on the side of the road bad (McDonald's, KFC, Waffle House, etc.). You could pull off an exit and find that there's literally no place to grab a sandwich. I hadn't seen that before in my lifetime.
What we're in right now is different. Never before had the government shut down everything for a year plus. (and, if we learned anything from that: never again). At the same time you have job opening signs everywhere but no one seems to want to work. Inflation is bad - we all see that (except the white house), but that's what you get for paying people to be home and do nothing for several years - the loss in the value of currency.
At the same time, interest rates have gone up, we've experienced supply change issues, some of this is best seen at the car dealers with the roller coaster they're on:
- everyone stay home (car sales go down)
- car production goes down
- dwindling / almost no cars on the lot
- dealers take advantage (not saying they're wrong) and start adding dealer markups to the tune of $5-10+K.
- car lots start filling back up.
- car sales are down further
- car lots are overflowing and now dealers are paying interest on cars they can't sell
- somewhere in there manufacturers raised MSRP - "because" (I get keeping with inflation but a good number of them are well over that figure)
It's pretty well screwed now.
With higher interest rates people can't afford the car hey once could and now that car is $30K more.
Same bit with housing. If you were thinking about buying, now it's rougher because the interest rates are up.
All of that should put a drag on the economy... Still... I see people eating out, regularly, and doing things and I think this may be part of the COVID nonsense. Essentially I think people are in the "I've already hunkered down for 1+ years (depending on where you live). I'm done with that."
I just think we're in unprecedented waters right now and it's not quite like the clockwork picture painted in the video or what people normally expect.
a broken clock...
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
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Great analysis. Thank you for sharing. Happy New Year.
I think the problem with trying to predict a recession through indicators and data is to liken a recession to a thing rather than a circumstance.
Every recession had a unique cause. A recession is like an economy telling a crazy story to its buddies at the bar. They are closer to case studies than they are some data point.
The reason I'm skeptical of this analysis is because the worst seems honestly behind us. Inflation is down from its highs, unemployment is low, some of the biggest bank failures ever didnt lead to a contagion. I will be willing to change my mind if I am wrong.
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I'm surprised that you just mentioned Veronica Hoy here. I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
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where can I find the actual monthly data CB LEI for each of the 10 indicators? Thank you.
Just Google it. LEI US conference economic board.
Just Google it...
The one factor that has changed significantly since 2007 is the size of USG deficits. Could borrowing 5-15% of GDP each year prevent a recession? What effects does it have on economic activity? We have never seen such deficits in the US over such a long period of time.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2023.
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
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she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
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I'm wondering how many recessions this indicator actually predicted vs how many would have predicted in hindsight.
I searched for its history and it's easy to find.
Also, a technical recession already happened.
The Conference Board US leading indicators latest release is no longer focasting a recession in 2024, care to explain?
No recession then, nothing to explain.
Thank you for standing your ground and showing more supporting evidence. History will tell who was correct, but you certainly came prepared.
Would appreciate if you were to link the chart you talk about.
commenting on july 31 2024, there seems to be no recession yet. 6 months after this video. is this recession signla a false reading then?
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
I agree. This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Thanks for using a dark background.
Fr at night it is the best
It looks like there have been several recent LEI increases. Any thoughts on whether “this time is different “ in this case?
The avg. American is having a tough time, I know I am not alone. There are others in same position as me. By certain statistics: 22% of americans have no retirement savings. 64% are worried that they will not have money in latter years while 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they have to work part-time in retirement. How can I best grow the 120k I have saved so far for retirement which has 0:02 depleted over the years?
Think about actions you’re taking that might be harming you such as carrying over credit card debt each month.
I agree with the reply above. I also think you should think about steps you can take to start. Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen even.
Make sure u use a professional planner, personally i use monica mary strigle and we've made a large 0:02 profit in the past 7 months
I'm considering a review of my $1million portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1M in returns on investments.
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my portfolio.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
“Vivian Louise Dehoff’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
Her name is ''Vivian Louise Dehoff'. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
Does this mean that is it good to bus stocks now? Or prepare to buy them foe few months or year?
is there a M/W/D chart for this on trading view or similar?
What’s the theory of divergent gdp and gdi?
man I love EPB research . daaam your content is awesome love you love you
But if I'm reading the chart at 1:16 correctly: every time the blue line dips into the red, the gray areas are showing that the economy is already in a recession. But that doesn't seem to be the case right now. Does that mean we are in the clear, that its going to happen any day now or that it could still be another year before the economy really takes a hit??
This has been my view too. I'm still in equities until that yeild curve inversion starts to get close to reverting. There will be trouble soon after. I'd say we see the start of it by the summer when some of those larger rate hikes hit their 18 month mark.
My question to you is why does reverting of yield curve is trouble?
Same I didn't know about this indicator I was looking off the inverted yield curve. It looks like when the yield starts normalizing then things fall into a recession. As much as people have been demanding fed cuts, it's almost always during fed cuts when the market drops.
Been saving money the past year putting it in CDs, been rather nice. Probably buy my first house if a crash happens put like 50% down.
Where can I see conference board leading index ? Please help me
Grate content and graphics. What software do you use to make the animations?
Thank you! So informative. It definetly feels like we are in a recession.
Fantastic job breaking down complex issues into easily digestible statistics and facts.
The LEI is now positive and has been for two prints. "The LEI did not signal a recession for the second consecutive month" - the conference board.
Now what?
Interesting that LEI and yield curve have never failed calling a recession - while at the same time on 12/28/2023 a breadth thrust occurred ( sp500 summation cycles from
Stock market numbers reflect price. Just because prices are high does not mean the underlying economy is healthy. It can equally mean a weak dollar. Likewise, pointing to higher stock prices in an inflationary economy like it's a good thing is stupid.
@@dawnfire82 I guess you have no idea what a breadth thrust means...good luck shorting
"Economic fundamentals have clearly not changed." I guess stable, low inflation, low jobless claims and rising GDP are not economic fundamentals?! But don't worry, if you keep predicting a recession year after year, you will eventually be proven right.
Thanks for restarting your videos!
I'm getting back into the stock market after staying on the sidelines for some years. Right now i have $2 million from the sale of my airbnb properties and i am thinking about doing a 70/30 stocks bond ratio. What are your thoughts on that?
While 2 million $$ might seem a lot, one wrong move could significantly erode it. Therefore, be super careful how and where you invest. Best to diversify while keeping 70-80% of it in safe investments. Also with your budget i'd suggest you consider financial advisory.
Had a good run during my first year in the fin-market, I assumed I had a hang on it. However, things changed during the pandemic, and I needed to diversify into safe assets, so I approached a coach who devised a structure that matched my annual goal of 45%
@@dogmom-pt5we Who is the coach that advises you? I'm in urgent need of one; my stock portfolio is still in the red, even though there was an early boost this year.
Monica Amanda McClure is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
Very nice video, thank you. But please fix your audio. It's distorted.
It’s interesting that, based on the past conference board leading index values, we should have already been in a recession by now.
What’s the general rule for stocks in recessions? Do you sell before-hand or just leave it alone? (More specifically for nvidia stock)
What do you think on the Private credit sector? Do you think it will be the domino that tilts the stock market?
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Olivia Maria Lucas focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her contact webpage; thank you for sharing.
This is a bot and its obvious asf
Whats the chart type @2.32 .. Possible to code that in Python
Great info as always. Question I have is has there every been such a 'printing of money' as in recent years? Could the 'new' money be raising the economy in such a manner that it prevents a recession as predicted by the CBLI? At the costs of elevated prices, high stock markets and realty to account for the 'new' 6 trillion infusion?
So i have a bit of money that i want to invest. should i invest all in my selected etfs or invest about 50% and keep the rest as a cash reserve for a possible recession
Dude, one of thr best videos I watched, well explained. Subscribed!!!
Loved the charts and visualization. Very well made.
He’s back!
Two main graphs were brought and both of them show that the indicators are plunging mostly while that recession was already on. Today, the indicators are relatively worse than the other periods yet no recession is happening right now and unemployment is still historically zero.
Give it until August of this year and we are a couple rate cuts in. That's when you'll see unemployment start to pick up real steam should it go above 6.88 Million
These moves takes many months if not years to play out. You have to be patient. Just because this signals a recession doesn’t mean it will happen next week or even next month.
I mean, we could and and probably are in a recession right now, but in order to capitulate into a bottom it will probably be late 2024 at the EARLIEST.
@@Dr.HowieFeltersnatch actually, I do not deny that. The official definition is two quarters of negative growth and we already saw that, even just barely, while the mass media denied and covered for that. We also had a good quarter that made everyone forget about the 2-3 poor ones. On top of that, why do we even need some official announcement of a recession? Is it to 'sell for newspapers' or exploit against whoever is the current administration? Is it to frighten people and companies even more?
The amount of scam investment comments on this video is just insane 😮
Excellent as always. Thank you for the analysis!
Good video. Arguably they should remove the stock market index as a leading indicator. Passive money flows have changed it to a lagging indicator.
Where can I follow this index?
In the "Real GDP or Real GDI?" I don't understand why an increase in the curve for the GDI indicates falling when it shows growing higher, to a higher percentage going up to 2.9% vs the Real GDP curve shows a decline to -0.1%, what am I missing? @EPBResearch
Why does the recent drop is not that sharp and seems flat? Past drops look sharp with sharp recovery. What is the reason for that?
When you are talking about economy, it is slim to impossible to predict a recession and how deep it will be. I agree that all indicator pointing to a recession at the end of Q2-Q3 this year, but that can change.
This video is GOLD! Eric is certainly one of the best in the field.
great graphics, brilliant content ... as always
Nice to see EPB on my Home Screen again!!
It also predicts that the market will continue to go up. Assuming you can't predict bottoms and tops this seems to support investing.
Good video. I would suggest not changing the colour coding between slides, as GDI/GDP switch colours at approx 5:42 mark, which can be confusing if the viewer does not look at the legend again.
As someone young and new in the economy and stock market, the video is very good and informative, but i still to some degree struggle to conclude, so the indicators point to a recession sometime in 2024, if rules are followed?
Excellent! Is it maybe a couple more weeks for the December plot?
Excellent work Erick. You are the Best!!
This is not a hate comment or anything, but can anyone explain why just combining indicators that all have false signals built into one suddenly makes it super accurate? wouldn't their false indicators still be feeding into the combined analysis? That's a genuine question here, I hope someone with a big brain can help me out.
They all have "occasional" false signals. However, they are not likely to all have false signals all at the same time. It's basically taking all signals and averaging together, lessening the impact of a false signal from one or two of the indicators. It's a similar philosophy to repeating an experiment 1000 times and taking the average of the result. You may have some outliers, but by averaging it all it gives you a decent idea of what will happen. My potential criticism and question though, based on light research, is that this index seems to place alot of weight on goods as opposed to services, where services make up a much bigger portion of the US economy. But perhaps it still works.
@@mattc1817 thanks, I tend to never try and predict the stock market but it's entertaining enough these indicators. Just seen too many videos that get predictions horribly wrong even though they seem to have data to back up. Market will always suprise.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
“Leila Simoes Pinto’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
The stock market has been one of the only major (+) components of the LEI. Stocks always are last to display recession signals. Perfect track record. Is this time different..?
Really enjoy your videos! After researching the LEI, one criticism is that is weighs goods much more than services, when services make up 85% of the US economy. How would you respond to this criticism? Thanks!
Are you going to follow up on this and how the LEI is no longer predicting a recession?
You need to put out a video every week. Great content
Absolutely love it!! The journey is not always easy, embrace persistence, patience and perseverance. Outline your goal and pull your efforts together to attain that goal. I had a fair share of struggles before diving into crypto last year. And let me tell you, it completely changed my life! So don't lose hope
That’s a great motivation! I thought about ¢rypt0 but unsure of it. I need to do something quick. What can I do?
Spot on. The market presents a lot of opportunities to create passive income, with the right skill and proper understanding. Whether you’re not sure about what to invest in, or you don’t have time to manage your assets, just make sure to consult an advisor.
I partner with Olivià CharIotte OswaId.
You can look her up and get in touch
Cryptos and real estate crowdfunding are awesome lnvestment options! It's great that you're growing with Olivia.
Thank you for offering your advice. Definitely grabbing this opportunity. just found the webpage
Thank you Eric! You explain complex theories and make it understandable.
Solid data driven analysis and perspectives.
Rare find.
I appreciate the confirmation bias, subscribed.
that was the best macro video i've seen in... ever?
I appreciate the video and think that it is well done, but an upgraded mic would do you well my friend
Considering bureau can announce we were in fact in recession 20 months after the fact .. maybe we already were in recession ? Or are?
I think Near Term Forward Spread is simpler, and with as good a track record, while also tending to lead more.
Audio is scuffed, you need to use a limiter
Nice work!
Can someone explain the reasons why GDI is more explanatory than GDP at the beginning of recessions?
It's doubtful that they can.
What is different this time is the massive and sustained government borrowing. Way different.
Excellent video. The swinging narrative on recession possibilities is somehow driven solely by equities lol
whats a money?
i did not know about gdi, thank you for informeing me.
Love all your videos and this is no exception, please keep it up!
Your mic gain is too high, it clearly clips too high
I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
You see in the stock market, bigger risk begets bigger results that can work in the bulls' favor. I think investors who are wary of the changing market trends should seek out bear/bull mrkt directions from certified strategists.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her and scheduled a call.
no buy the sip when the recession hits
Where is that a *leading* index? It always plunges into the red zone only after the recession had already started. It is a lagging indicator, albeit with a very short lag. But definitely not leading.
Once again, you are amazingly clear and succinct.
Did history start in 1960?
I think you x-axis if off on the GDI chart