Это видео недоступно.
Сожалеем об этом.
The First Shale Revolution: Humble Beginnings || Peter Zeihan
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 15 авг 2024
- With ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer, it's time to kiss the days of mom-and-pop shale operations goodbye. But before we look at what's next, let's look at the shale journey over the last two decades.
Full Newsletter: mailchi.mp/zei...
Where to find more?
Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/3NyQu4l
Subscribe to the RUclips Channel: bit.ly/3Ny9UXb
Listen to the Podcast: spoti.fi/3iJyNEe
Zeihan on Geopolitics website: zeihan.com/
Purchase the Global Outlook Webinar Here: bit.ly/3xBvRxd
Where to find me on Social Media?
Twitter: bit.ly/3E1E95D
LinkedIn: bit.ly/3zJAW8b
Instagram: bit.ly/3IW2mgp
Facebook: bit.ly/3ZIAjHk
#shale #oil #energy #naturalgas
Excellent explanation. I'm a Geophysicist (retired) who spent 40 years as a technical sales guy in all of the Domestic Exploration Company offices. You know your stuff.
dude the smackey attitude is why your retirement wont matter.
The term is "permeable" not "porous" with respect to caprock and shale.
@@Nobushidowith all due respect , based off your comments in general on this channel, Stfu
Mom and pop had pipelines, I think not. Mom and pop drill for the megas
@@D.RoyceGates I understood what he met
Hi Peter,
Diane from Cambridge Ontario.
I am78 and really try to keep myself up to date on current affairs so that I may speak and converse with my grandchildren on current events. I love that you give a short back story to certain historical events so that we can understand what is happening today. Your explanations are very clear to understand and because of your brevity, easily remembered.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and perspective to those who don’t fully understand the nuances of the topic.
And I'm very impressed that you converse with your grandchildren on current events. More power to your family :D
Well said 😁
I always thought Chipotle was the leading gas producer on the North American continent…
Of course it was Taco Bell that started the increase in American domestic gas production in the mid-1980s; funny that Zeihan skips over those events…
Ah, ever hear of Pork n' Bean 😂 As featured in 'Blazing Saddles '
Any outfit that does heavy processing on the fuel source will produce excessive gas 😛
So I think you meant to say Taco Bell 🛎️
Hahahahahahaha!
I was a geologist in the Appalachian Basin, although mostly not in oil and gas although in the day everybody was trained in oil and gas. I watched the Majors leave the region and then watched them come back!
History seems to always find creative ways to repeat herself.
Another example of how, while history doesn't usually repeat, it often rhymes.
@@interstitialist4227Tis very true, so much of the time.
My thoughts as a geologist working in the shale patch: 1) Pedantic, but has to be mentioned because it's remarkable. The shale revolution wasn't a coalescing of a lot of different companies efforts, it was pretty much entirely due to one guy at one company (Mitchell Petroleum)
2) Small and midcaps are going extinct. Consolidation will continue until its just majors and tiny PE companies.
3) The wildcat PE groups are moving back to conventional exploration. Shale is great, you almost never drill a dry hole, but you never get a barnburner either. And the wells cost 7 million + for extended laterals and modern completions. To optimize production, we developed really sophisticated subsurface modeling techniques that are now being applied by these small companies to look for bypassed play.
4) The supermajors are transforming into general extraction companies who target anything of value in liquid or gas phase in the rock, not just oil. They are aggressively moving into the lithium/ammonia space and hydrogen (steam reformed or otherwise) is next.
What is enjoyable with how Peter brings to the table is even though he cannot know everything associated with certain subjects, therein lies the comment section. This allows us all to hopefully obtain even more thought and information about each subject being displayed. I for one probably wouldn't or could not do much with any of this, yet it gives me some level of comfort knowing a little bit more than I did previously about so many subjects. I would therefore like to give a shout out to all the folks sharing their views. Almost like a daily coffee-shop chat session. 🤔
Yes, but Peter and the other "experts" have the bad habit of dismissing developments that do not fit within their existing paradigm. They won't revisit things that they previously dismissed as unfounded, even when ongoing developments demonstrate their error. Without correction, this will cascade into system collapse.
The conspiracy theorists are right.
@@SuperCulverinthe absence of specific in your comment only increases Peters credibility!
@SuperCulverin so let's see your RUclips channel !
@@SuperCulverinbetter than making some wide claim without any evidence lol
"This will cascade into system collapse" 😂
Been getting your info from trollfarms much?
My grandpa owned a small oil business and I remember when fracking became normal operation. He was so proud that u could drill miles and miles laterally then frack. He would say that after it’s played out you can come back down the hole and frack again. He owned 100,000 acres of minerals over the Barnett Shale formation near Bowie and sunset Texas. I miss him
What kind of secret, toxic chemicals did he use?
@@izzytoons You are a mor0n
@@izzytoons well since he was a professional it’s pretty standard. But to explain it to an idiot it was the same ones every one uses. Do u think it’s a secret what is used in fracking?? Trying opening a book and reading about the prob before looking like a complete fool. I bet u r completely carbon neutral? And fyi he died in 2011 and their are natural gas well drilled so far laterally that my kids will still be receiving checks for the royalties when they have kids. So prepare ur kids to be outraged by it so we can keep this charade up for generations.
@@izzytoons we still own the surface of 300 acres on which the well starts and surprise surprise our water well still has pristine water. And we run cattle on it. So ur little poison comment is laughable. My family made a couple thousand dollars in the time it took u to push that crap out of your mind and onto the internet. So keep on hating!
@@izzytoonsat least dihydrogen monoxide
11 major TX and LA refineries had switched to very heavy crude from Venezuela in the 1980's due petroleum coke went from selling at prices to pay for cost to get rid of after squeezing the last of liquids out of a barrel of oil to a profit center. In 2003 there was a white collar strike at PDVSA to protest the handling of PDVSA by the Chavez government. This is why the Keystone Pipeline was built. Previously oil went up to Wood River, IL via Capline after being imported via LOOP and St. James terminal. With Keystone going through Cushing while enroute to Wood River, Phillip66 reconfigured Borger to refine heavy crude. Venezuela had little effect on incentivizing tight shale crude. It had a major effect on obtaining heavy crude from Canada.
I cannot thank Peter enough. He made me proud to be an American again with his insight on the Global Trade Network.
The First Shale Revolution actually happened in Scotland in the 19th Century: James “Paraffin” Young was one of Victorian Scotland's great heroes and is the name most people associate with the shale oil industry
@@jzmrpl4105 You didn’t read what I wrote. I took this opportunity to thank Peter for his insight on the GTN.
It's a shell game. You are paying for it seven ways to Sunday, the middle class is paying for it, and the 1% are getting all your money.
@@izzytoons If it was July 15, 1945, I would agree with you. Now, I cheerfully pay for it! Do you know where humanity would be if the US simply went home after WW2? Dead, under a pile of Nuclear ash. We’re the glue that keeps the World in Pax Americana and our dollars are backed by the might of 11 Battle Fleets, not oil. Those 1% employ people across the globe and enable us to get goods in exchange for services. No jobs = angry people = War = Extinction of humanity and possibly life itself. WE built that! We, and our Allies, maintain it!
@@izzytoonsShale is why the Peak Oil elite liberals fretted about didn't happen.
Here’s something Peter Zei left out of his commentary: The best Heavy Crude (Conventional) free flowing Oil has all but diminished, much is now assisted out of Wells often by pressurising with CO2. Fracked Wells loose up to 60 to 70% of their fracked well capacity in first 2 years. Fracked wells are now referred to as the Red Queen syndrome, that’s why it’s “Drill Baby Drill” (to keep production up). Fracked Oil is classed as light sweet Oil, USA’s refineries are set up to process Heavy Crude and not so much Light Sweet Fracked Oil, this is one reason USA imports so much of its Oil/Oil products. Without a lot of chemistry and chemical engineering you can’t get light fracked Oil to produce the same sorts of fuels and products you get from Crude (Conventional) Oil. Directional Horizontal Drilling and Fracking cost a lot more to recover and I mean a lot more. In the process of Fracking thousands of litres of toxic chemicals are used typically: (to name but a few) Hydrogen peroxide, Hydroxy acetic acid, Hydroxyacetic acid ammonium salt, Hydroxyethyl cellulose, and forever chemicals PFAS. Also huge amounts of Sand and I mean huge amounts like 10,000 tones per Well. There’s a lot of subsides go into maintaining the cost of recovery from Fracked Well’s, they’re generally not profitable below $50 - $60’s a Barrel. And last but by no means least Fracked Wells are recovering SOURCE OIL, once that’s gone it’s gone, there’s no more, and it’s getting more and more difficult to find and recover, along with diminishing returns🤔
I worked for Danbury as a well site geologist. They have since been bought out but they invented the process of injecting gas back onto a tapped out well to keep pressure in the rock formation thereby allowing the surrounding wells to continue to produce.
The First Shale Revolution actually happened in Scotland in the 19th Century: James “Paraffin” Young was one of Victorian Scotland's great heroes and is the name most people associate with the shale oil industry
@@jzmrpl4105 Never heard of him. I suppose that means I'm not "most people". But then, if a bunch of nine year olds play army in the woods, that's not really a revolution. I suppose the same can be said in terms of scale here.🙂
@billisaacs702
Nine-year-old boys eventually become middle-aged men.
You'll understand once they stop playing games in the woods and start conducting business in the world.
@@jzmrpl4105 God, I've heard about the Scotland oil revolution in Scotland a hundred times in this thread. Please read the comments before you post.
My understanding was the a lot of the shale oil is "light" and that not enough US refineries are set up to process it so some of that oil is exported, but overall the US produces more oil than we consume.
I work for a major producer in northeast British Columbia and the shale play here (natural gas) is still ramping up to supply the LNG market. I'm glad to be part of it.
Ssshhhhh don’t let Trudeau hear this… good luck up there that’s tough country.
". . . at scalllle." I love when he says that.
Peter, love your explanations on most topics. As a 30 year student of the energy business I believe one of the defining characteristics of the shale Revolution is its precipitous decline rate exceeding 30% per annum. As always in extraction industries, the easiest and cheapest is done first...as you point out regarding shale drilling. Combining a massive decline rate with less productive and more expensive extraction leads to a treadmill of declining productivity which will unseat the Permian...and all other shale basins...from top spot in a few short years. Hopefully the second shale Revolution has some positive surprises in store for us!
M. King Hubbert, aka Mr. Peak Oil, predicted in 1956 that US conventional oil production would peak in the 1970s and was laughed at but his prediction ended up coming true. Nobody pays attention to peak oil anymore since the US is setting new records year after year, but US conventional production is now a fraction of the peak in the 1970s. Hubbert was aware of the shales in 1956 but assumed it was technically infeasible to extract oil from them. As you point out, the same decline scenario will play out for shales. The question will be if another rabbit can be pulled out of a hat (Arctic? Methane Hydrates? Etc.) to counter the inevitable declines in shale production.
I worked on some Pioneer wells in the shale boom. Even did some wildcats in the Morrow. It's crazy to think that the work we did out there has had such an impact on the country. The Morrow (along with the Atoka, Strawn and UWC/LWC) formation are highly productive and still holding massive resources. If we would actually allow the producers to run the industry we would have much better energy prices and policies but politicians have to try and control things they don't understand.
So Peter is very knowledgeable on every topic that he speaks about. Yet it seems a lot of people want to nit pic the details that aren't encluded in a 10-minute video. I'll make the assumption that he is much more knowledgeable/informed/up to date on the state of things than any of us tuning in. That said, I'm positive he doesn't need me defending him. I always look foward to his next postings.
My dads a big producer in the Haynesville. Lots of Nat Gas and low energy cost potential ahead for the US
Yeah my daughter and son-in-law work for BP. My daughter says they are running low on inventory. I'm thinking something else, no equipment in the yard but she says no. The only way to expand is to buy a company. This does not surprise me.
Fresh insights every day, whether you agree with Peter or not he is both interesting and entertaining.
Absolutely!
"When your ambitions are much bigger than your competence, it would be better for your population if you were to step aside." ~ Sum Tzu
Yes. Seems to me there should be more explicit emphasis that US support for Ukraine is a national security issue, not a “foreign aid” issue.
Absolutely. That is our war as much as the Ukraine's. Russia is currently our top existential threat, with all those nukes and a madman at the controls. Don't let him expand his territory, take control of his nukes, and exert influence on his oil production.
I've been a shareholder in Big Oil for a while, but Exxon is my top pick of the bunch, and has been since the beginning because of their Rockefeller style conservative (fiscally) management. Those shares just sit there in my IRA pumping out dividends while the financial analysts wring their hands and climb a wall of worry. Great analysis on this, Mr. Z, and all the best to you.
Hey Peter - I am one of your biggest fans from the rest-of-the-world: RotW - please, please, please - can you acknowledge that:
Shale Oil production in West Lothian in Scotland started in 1851. It was not the first place to produce oil from shale but it was the largest and most successful. This oil production led to major developments in oil refining and, as a result, a large demand for oil products was created. This new demand for oil products stimulated the search for oil around the world and resulted in the first modern-day oil well being drilled in Titusville Pennsylvania in 1859.
Over the next 100 years, an estimated 75 MMbbl (million barrels) of oil and 500 Bcf (billion cubic ft) of gas were produced from the shales of West Lothian. Initially, the oil was produced from a thin layer of shale at Torbanehill near Bathgate. Later, the much thicker deposits in the Dinantian West Lothian Oil-shale Formation (WLO) were used to produce the oil, although there was also oil produced from other shales mostly in the Lower Coal Measures and Limestone Coal Formation.
This paper looks at the Scottish oil-shale industry from the viewpoint of the modern-day shale-gas industry and highlights the contribution the industry made as the forerunner of the oil industry. The paper attempts to explain why the Scottish oil-shale industry was so successful and influential. Reasons why the oil-shale industry did not develop into modern oil-well production are also put forward.
The Scottish shale-oil industry was successful not only thanks to James Young and his colleagues but also because of the geology of the Central Belt of Scotland and, in particular, the geochemical properties of the WLO.
The shale-oil industry, natural oil seepage, free oil encountered during mining and the historical exploration drilling demonstrate a rich functioning source rock suggesting significant prospectivity for future exploration for both oil fields and shale gas.
He doesn’t write ovah here
What a thoughtful and insightful history lesson on the shale revolution in under 10 minutes. Can't wait for round two tomorrow.
XOM's last big Permian acquisition was XTO back in 2009. You need to look back at the projections for production growth when that one closed compared to the actual results before assuming that this acquisition will be different. The long underground laterals are proving not to be as productive as had been hoped. Water disposal is creating high pressure zones beneath the surface, and in places has caused older wells to turn into sprinkler systems. But in the end yes, the story of pretty much every industry in the US is that they eventually drift toward monopolies and oligopolies without Government intervention to try to preserve some form of competition and innovation. And for consumers, the era of "cheap" oil is over. Let's hope the energy transition moves fast so we can switch over to the free wind and solar power we're supposed to be getting.
Big players buy up the little guys so they can better constrict and control the supply of the commodity.
I was involved in the forensic engineering for a court case where a fracking tank was damaged and let its water out all over this farmers land. What most average people don't realize about fracking is the truly insane amount of fresh water it uses, and contaminates.
He says the fracking process pumps water into the ground. I thought this was a more complex, even proprietary, liquid of some kind, no?
I think chemical soup is more accurate.
An excellent summary I live in the Permian Basin and, while not an oilman myself, have watched a company with a small handful of employees grow into a multi billion $ firm and now become part of Exxon. It’ll make a great book someday.
It’s all about the break even price for oil exploration. High oil prices make creative options possible.
The knowledge you posess, along with the ability to relay it in an understandable way is truly impressive sir, thank you very much for all the content and information!!
You should look into Exxon's Oil boom in Guyana(South America). It's being called the new Gulf of Mexico. The engineers I work with are estimating there will be 30+ years of development.
Let's hope BRIC etc don't get their hands on it.
Great video. Your Colorado viewers would probably appreciate the story of the Colony Shale Oil Project that went bust on May 2nd 1982 "Black Sunday" when Exxon terminated the project. The headquarters were in Grand Junction, CO, and the Oil Shale Operation was up the Colorado River on I70 at Parachute, CO. Exxon was in the process of building a city across from Parachute for 50,000 people that became mostly a ghost town.
Heyyy stephen . Shut it
Peter is SO good in his research that it surprises me when he misses important factors, which he does in his views on shale. He doesn't mention that a big reason for the shale expansion post-2008 was zero interest rates, which allowed small players to get into the shale game, but also led many of them to go into bankruptcy within a decade. The move of the oil majors to grab up these companies was thus more defensive than offensive, to keep these operations from going under. Research in the past five years (see David Hughes, former Canadian oil geologist) shows it is likely that the rapid expansion of shale is approaching its peak and will likely stagnate overt the rest of this decade. Add all this together, and it paints a much less optimistic picture of the future of US shale production than Zeihan appears to have.
If I recall correctly, Ayn Rand in Atlas Shrugged predicted a future shale oil recovery technology about 90 years ago.
I just wanted to take a moment to say how amazing your video was! I was really impressed with the quality of the footage, the editing, and the overall presentation. You did a great job of explaining the topic in a clear and concise way, and I learned a lot from watching your video.
I also really appreciated the way you made the video engaging and entertaining. You kept my attention throughout the entire video, and I never felt bored or lost. I would definitely recommend your video to anyone who is interested in learning more about the video.
I think a lot of the slowdown will be because US companies for 10 years plus have hit the sweet spots. and lesser quality acreage remains. Also, some of the production added by the small companies was funded by bad debt, the capitalist version of subsidizing an industry that would otherwise lose money. It was a bubble, and now that it is in control of the supermajors, it will be developed at a proper pace to match demand and not bleed money out of excessive drilling.
Here's a topic for you.
The correlation between the shale revolution and drug addiction and the consequences on small communities.
Geosteerable drilling provided the accuracy required for shale seams.
I serviced the oil industry in Texas for over 40 years. I watched the economy in places like Odessa go through boom/bust cycles about every 9 years since 1980. If what Peter says is true, then this should stabilize their economy somewhat, changing that area into a more urbane and livable place.
I cannot hear the name T. Boone Pickens without thinking about Abraham H. Parnassus from the Adam Driver SNL sketch talking about how he crushed H.R. Pickens
I remember back in the mid-late 2000's the oil refinery my dad worked at was investing huge amounts into being able to process shale oil from Canada
After listening to Peter for years, I am proud to say there are at least two very intelligent, mature, honest, knowledgeable and funny people coming out of Iowa.
Low bar for pride.
Pride comes before a fall.
You are wrong. Trump is not from Iowa.
@@turistsinucigas that's in Iowa's favor!
“Humble” - Nice pun, Peter! I actually grew up in Humble, Texas - we all learned the Exxon story. 😂
Fracking is not water and sand, it is a cocktail of secret chemicals that include a splash of water. It is called water. I thought you would have known that ! 😮 1:28 just so you understand, this brings everything else you say into question. 😊 1:28
Normally I press pause and take a quick gander at comments. Your's however got me pondering what does he actually say. Sure enough he's a fuckwit, it's not water. And it's nothing at all like normal oil either.
It's a fkg chemical reaction that takes place underground. The first two half lives of this fkg chemical reaction is viable in profit, remaining half lives are not so it's capped, pressure builds up over time and releases as passive off gassing g through surrounding ground and streams. Very toxic chemicals and gases in off gassing. This guy is a nutter 'water' wtf ??
Lol
Dropping those emojis is wildly off -putting. It could’ve been a genuine criticism that got me to explore the topic in greater detail, but the emojis are just condescending, and mean that my natural thirst for knowledge is dried up… just so you know 😄
Weird because I do it and it’s 99.9% water tiny bit of oil based mud for lubricant sand some acid and wood pellets.🙄
As a european (french), we've had diminishing fossils for a long time now, not much gas left, no oil. That's also why we started the ecological transition ahead, we're doing a lot of energy efficiency, energy sobriety, and investing in nuclear, biogas and renewables
Just compare the price of oil between the US and EU and you'll understand why our cars are three times smaller lol
Energy sobriety is great. Nuclear, not so great.
@@likearollingstone007 Explain your stance on nuclear, considering it has the lowest deaths/Twh of all energy sources
Excellent, mind-blowing explanation in a short video. You truly know your stuff.
Hey Peter - love your work - genuinely - please give Scotland at least a small shout-out for shale, please...
Nice work, can we get solid state battery info soon.
Yeah not considering EV cars until Solid State comes out
I’m proud of those mom and pop innovators
The First Shale Revolution actually happened in Scotland in the 19th Century: James “Paraffin” Young was one of Victorian Scotland's great heroes and is the name most people associate with the shale oil industry. In 1850
At some point potable water needs to be more valuable than oil, or there will be no water left you can safely consume.
That topic is notably absent in this thread. What about the proprietary soup of toxic chemicals used in the process that is poisoning the water table?
Right. I was a drilling fluids engineer in WY and UT back in the 1980s and am well aware of the assortment of nasty and toxic chemicals used for various purposes in the drilling and well completion processes, most of which would also be used in shale oil and gas drilling and production. The oil industry never, ever discloses this information, and for good reason, because if the general public fully understood what is contaminating it’s drinking water (and accelerating global warming) it would be much more inclined to support the faster transition to renewable energy.
@@ThePecadillosam Zeihan prefers to shit on renewable energy development stories.
Wow. Lots of liars trolling on this channel.
It's these "pro environment" types that are the reason that burning coal is coming back into fashion (take clean nuclear power offline and burn coal so the power grid can function!).
What next? Kids in workhouses? I know let's take down the pharmaceutical tech industry and bring back cholera!
Luddites!
00:29 - 01:59 Video looks back at the history of the shale gas revolution. In the early 2000s, the United States faced an energy crisis, and technological innovations such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling were applied and developed.
01:59 - 03:29 Initially these technologies were developed by small companies. During the period of high oil prices from 2003 to 2008, small companies gained development. After the 2008 financial crisis, Wall Street capital poured in.
03:29 - 04:58 In 2013-2014, these technologies matured and the United States almost achieved energy independence. Large companies such as Chevron are returning to the U.S. market, acquiring assets and talent.
04:58 - 06:30 Today, large companies dominate shale gas production, and the era of innovation by small companies is basically over. ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer, the industry leader, marking the end of the first wave of the shale gas revolution.
06:30 - 07:55 While growth may be slowing, production will not stop growing. Large companies such as Exxon Mobil have the technological and financial strength to maintain steady growth.
07:55 - 08:54 The operations of large companies are more reliable and the funds are more abundant, which will reduce volatility and make the shale gas industry more sustainable.
08:54 Summary The first wave of shale gas revolution is over and the industry has entered a new stage.
Noted by NoteGPT
Excellent summary. The absorbtion of shale production by Big Oil has tremendous impact on price stability and therefore political influence in volatile environments. It frees the US and anyone it helps from Middle East oil slavery. It's already altering the political landscape in the middle east with major repercussions. The whole Gaza War can be traced back to Saudi searching for political stability to serve it's oil markets, pushing normalization with Israel which provoked Hamas and Iran into trying to torpedo the agreement, possibly triggering a wider war TBD. Either way the US is the new Saudi Arabia on the scene with the influence and military to take what it wants. A word of caution though - that includes taking what they want in local politics which is starting to look more like a third world oil dicatorship.
Maybe 30 years ago, but those days are over. The US military has lost its formidable reputation, and oil/sas exploration is a no-go because of environmental policies. The USA will look a lot more like the UK after WW2, a broken empire largely irrelevant on the world stage...
@@gfys756Oil and gas is a thing in Texas. It has distribution, refining, expertise, and oilfields.
@@gfys756The UK could allow themselves to decline because the US and the USSR became superpowers. According to PZ, Russia and China are in demographic decline. So, even if the US is degraded, it will still be on top because no one will realistically be able to challenge it in the near future.
@@richardarriaga6271 For now. All of that will be phased out in the coming years. Especially when more left-leaning, green politicians are inevitably elected.
@@jakeaurod China has 1.4 billion people. It'll be decades before the implications of demographic decline ever truly become apparent.
Consolidation of production into the hands of the few creates inflation and dampens job growth.
Inflation (depreciation) by the banking cartel creating monetized debt for their criminal friends is the primary cause of “inflation.” Big corporations are almost all controlled by the insiders and therefore benefit but don’t actually cause it.
When I heard about this I knew it would be bad and I'm more sure as time passes. The government should have never allowed this sale to happen. Exxon will use this acquisition to keep gas expensive and we are now screwed.
Pioneer bought Jagged Peak, Joe Jaggers who focused on the valley you were talking about, Denver. Not directly but through the purchases til Pioneer, but he was the one that found that gold mine is the river beds of the valley. And with indirect drilling he farmed the deeper shell resources.
I remember T Boone Pickens! Pickens Plan for America, that weird 30 minute infomercial ad he made in 2008 to talk up nat gas
In PA, it’s marcelles shale. But last few years we been hitting Utica. It’s hard and expensive but the returns are a 100 times better. They are still figuring Utica shale out. But when they do. It’s game over
I work in the DJ Basin here in Colorado and the mergers here are absurd. Chevron has gobbled up PDC, formerly Colorado’s largest local oil company. I expect Civitas, which is a conglomerate will be gobbled up next.
Fracking isn't cheap. When I left the company the price of oil had to be north of 60 bucks a barrel before they would go gangbusters on drilling new wells. That was many years ago and technology has changed but we've also had inflation. So I'm not sure what it is now.
I worked some sites in midland, pecos and jal NW. The jal area was very hot 2 years ago. Some mega flowing wells. I'm guessing it was this hybrid technology based way to frac. The fracs went on for weeks at a time. Maybe it was multiple wells stringed together for that time. It was all hands on deck and the management pushed very hard to get it done quick. Some sites in that area were paid off in 4-8 months or faster.
Damn, I literally just finished the Absent Superpower yesterday. What excellent timing! Thanks for the update!
Isn't it interesting that it's the smaller and independent producers are at the forefront of energy exploration?
They aren't. Shale isn't a viable energy source.
Peter, another interesting analysis. Any thoughts on how Alaska plays into domestic oil production?
Outstanding summary as always. I love the quakies behind you! Nothing like high alpine country:).,
Hey Peter _ I absolutely love all of your excellent work - many congratulations - please can I ask you to correct one tiny thing? - Many thanks in advance - to be fair - this is in the interests of Historical Accuracy - something that I believe that you are interested in - No? - The First Shale Revolution actually happened in Scotland in the 19th Century: James “Paraffin” Young was one of Victorian Scotland's great heroes and is the name most people associate with the shale oil industry. In 1850
I hope that Peter is offered a Cabinet position or, at least, have easy access to the potus. The man is a BEAST!
Fracking is not done with just water. Many noxious chemicals are in the mix - chemicals that can severely pollute the groundwater.
It feels like the 70’s in many ways
I like your historical description. FYI: if you want a look at the Niobrara, it's just around the corner from your house on US 285 on the east side of the Dakota hogback. You can literally smell the oil. Plus the small adit in the Morrison fm. was a U3O8 prospect. See you neighbor.
If you've ever worked on Wall Street, guys like Peter are very familiar.
Yup, and Wall Street and Peter all benefit the most, which is exactly why they shill for shale oil. If the investors had to pay all the healthcare, environmental, diplomatic (Midlle East), military (Middle East), and business disruption and clean-up costs from ever-increasing climate chage, and we stopped subsidizing them with taxes, and stopped pretending that administration and vast price gouging for the benefit of those investors, then there would be an honest reckoning, even among the workers. Those in TX in partocular will be forced to pay the piper soon enough, when there already unbearable climate extremes and events, overpopulation, and rising housing costs thatgo with it, and infrastructure breakdown from low taxes, will force them to move, year after year, to better climates, better quality of life, and better housing prices, up north.
So many times people have said that oil production can't go back to X, and as much as i get it with the fact that it's a finite material the amount of known reserves is 4x what it was 23 years ago. I know you hedge it by saying "well records are meant to be broken." Shale was considered even in 2012 to be a half-baked daydream.
Shake today is easy.
Do you have a recommendation for a book on how capital is used and deployed throughout the world or just in the US? It would be fantastic to learn more about the use of capital over the decades along with the wins and failures that have helped shaped are world. I have already bought and half way through your book.😊
He never writes here
Watching Peter reminds me of the conundrum many residents have in Florida,we understand that the country needs governor DeSantis to get us back on track,but,we don't want to lose him as our govenor. I think Peter has the intelligence and judgement (way to the left of me) to be President but I don't want to lose him as my primary source of information ,that I trust, (forget the media) and need to prepare for some very "hard times" that are coming soon.
So you support Zionist puppet DeSantis the goyim “Holocaust” museum builder with your tax dollars?
DeSantis miscalculated deeply, he should have stayed in his lane and waited his turn. Now his political brand is tarnished, perhaps irreparably.
just amongst trump supporters who follow what he says blindly and those left of the centre left@@persist_123
DeSantis is *not* going to become President in 2024. I don't know why people think he's any different than typical establishment politicians after the way he's handled his presidential campaign. Regardless, have you looked at the polling? His campaign is dead. It's either Trump or Biden.
😂
Thanks for the explanation of shale oil.
Oh good, we needed more monopolization.
When you say Permian basin in the first minute intro, you should’ve told us where it was. It was needed.
‘I drank your milkshake!’
😂
It's present-tense... "-I drink...!" ;)
Do a video on the UK please.
Californian here…I worked as a drilling fluids engineer (aka “mud engineer”) in WY and UT in the 1980s, and am well aware of the toxic and nasty chemicals used in the drilling of oil and gas wells, which would also be used in horizontal shale drilling operations, which are even more difficult to drill. My concerns are twofold: 1) water contamination and water usage. Here in CA, we have the Monterey Shale formation, but we certainly don’t have enough fresh water to serve both agriculture, the people, AND the demands of oil industry for shale oil and gas production; 2) more CO2 for global warming. Clearly, the oil industry has intentionally hidden and ignored the true costs of burning fossil fuel over the past 120 years, and instead of helping phase it out for the benefit of our grandkids and future generations, its pedal to the metal for them, in the name of huge profits and personal enrichment for the owners and biggest stock holders. I say, “Enough, we need to move to renewable energy NOW!”
Very insightful!
And yet we're not benefiting as much as we should from the shale revolution. I was told that this is mostly due to the Jones act, but I suspect it's more complicated than that. Please do a video on why Americans don't see much lower gas prices due to the shale revolution and what is causing that including whether the Jone's act has a serious impact on prices. Thanks Peter.
Because shale oil exploration is environmentally destructive, most Americans are against it.
Because the global homos made the us consumers.
It’s like blasting the heat in your car during summer so that when you arrive to your destination the outside feels cool.
The high gas prices come from the Russian War and price gouging driving massive profits, profits amplified by stock buybacks, which benefit the 1%, not you. You also pay for the helathcare costs of the communities and air pollution, the environmental clean-up costs from all the chemicals, and the tax subsidies to an industry that is already ridiculously proftitable. And mid-east diplomacy and military costs. And then there's the business disruption and repair costs from increasing climate change. We should make the state promoting and producing fossil fuels, not FEMA and the taxpayers, pay those costs You pay six ways to Sunday. You just think it's cheap.
It's funny that all the people thanking Peter and supporting fossil fuels on this thread all work for the industry. Like the fossil fuel industry and investors who fund climate science denial, they have conflicts of interest. Well, those workers are not benefiting from their jobs as much as they think. Texas is becoming increasingly inhospitable. More and more those workers will throw their hands and up and move north to better climates. It'll serve them right. The piper must be paid.
We're not getting low gas prices because the largest producers in the world are manipulating production, and domestic production has really slowed since 2020.
Also we we are not seeing low gas prices because we got a president who wants it to be expensive. Biden deliberately caused domestic production to get much lower from his energy policies. Before Biden became president I was paying about $2.40 per gallon and the prices immediately started skyrocketing when he became president. Gas immediately started getting cheaper when Trump became president. He makes it harder to get drilling permits. The first day he became president he shut down the keystone Pipeline.
Sorry to go political on here but this is a political problem, unless you think it's a coincidence that it got cheaper with an energy friendly president and more expensive with an energy hostile president.
All of Oklahoma State University cheered when you mentioned Boone Pickens.
I just love learning all about History! First Shale Oil Revolution: happened in Scotland in 1850: James “Paraffin” Young.
I remember people in the oil industry talking of finding oil all over the place in Western Australia's Kimberly, but capping and leaving wells. All part of some conspiracy they said.
Knowing now that companies want to frac there, it was oil, just not conventional, accessable oil.
Did I just hear Mr. Zeihan make a BORG reference?! 🤩 #ResistanceisFutile (6:15)
OK this is where you’re at your best talking about energy and bashing China
Hey Peter, another amazing video! Question, could you please talk about how the shale revolution affects the state of California? I remember in a previous video you said that California did not participate in the 1st revolution... is there any indication that they will participate now?
Thank you!
Anybody old enough to remember when Exxon was called Esso? I’m not actually but I remember a line from an old novel where the main character complains about the name change “Esso slips off the tongue naturally while Exxon sounds like a warlord from the planet Yurir”.
All of the companies including Exxon and Esso where from the parent company Standard Oil.
@@Art-is-craft I grew up in Cleveland. The Rockefeller legacy is on display everywhere in that town.
@@dongately2817
Their wealth was off the chart. Standard oil was so large that it had to broken up into the likes of Esso. Not even Apple with it 2 trillion value is being broken up.
A wonderful book on frackers: The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters
The small businessmen wildcatters were told there was "peak oil" and we had to get used to no more oil in the future. This was the view of big oil companies and academia and the acknowledged "experts" on oil. Interesting how wrong smart people can be. A few stubborn folks broke this open in the 1980s.
Thomas Sowell was absolutely right when it came to academics
The smart rich people are betting wrong again. The next big play is nuclear!
The shale revolution surprised me, probably because it was small companies doing it. I was more tuned in to the deep water drilling innovations in the 90's and 2000's because the big guys led that one. It takes huge money to build those rigs.
Should mention how the initial shale revolution affected certain areas of the country - most notably Ohio and Pennsylvania - two areas that didn’t have any regulation or guardrails set up to maximize their benefits from the new energy source and ended up being manipulated by the industry.
Between 2004 and 2008. Demand from China and India was the driving force for high energy and commodity prices.
Good explanation of a small frac.
Such a great video
I enjoy ur videos. Wish you would make them longer
I’d love to hear your take on Peak Oil, Peter!
Working in the Permian Basin. Selling Frac equipment. Drill Baby Drill.
Big companies crush innovation. It is just what they do. Full stop.
Innovation is change. Change is hard, and frequently expensive. When your whole universe is the report on the last 3 months there is ZERO reason to plan for tomorrow.
And we honestly need to restructure the whole economic system. So that the crazy wild ideas from all the desperate mom+pops get funding, and all the big entities we depend on are freed from the profit motive pressure.
Basically you have rampant socialism at the smallest scale, blood thirsty unregulated capitalism in the middle, and then full state control at the top. This would let each layer play to it's strength and stop the stagnation that plagues the pure systems. We all know a "one size fits all" approach is wrong and never really works. So why in the blue hell do we do it with economics?
Monopoly capitalism (socialism) can only dominate with because of government force. If there were a true free market and very limited government, the market forces would move the best to the top rather than the best connected to the gov.
@@marktapley7571 sorry. I stopped reading at "Monopoly capitalism (socialism)".
Never in my life have I read something so obviously ignorant and factually wrong, and I've read garbage flat earth rejects have made.
Wow.
@@reyalsregnavaThat's exactly what socialism is. All the big companies become nationalized. What did you think?
@@gfys756No. That is not what socialism is. That is what people have told the ignorant socialism is. Nationalized big companies is much closer to communism.
Socialism is prioritizing the wellbeing of people over the profit motive. Think "the way the government saved the banks in 2008" Where the failures in planning, design, implementation, and execution are just absorbed because having people active in something they believe in is more beneficial to society then letting millions of your own people suffer and starve.
Which is why you only do it for small businesses. This will let that guy that really just wants to bake cookies, and just cookies, can bake cookies for his community. He's not shackled by the need to compete with other bakeries that make other products. You get more people active in the economic system doing things they want to. Given that 90% of small business fail you'll have a VERY large and diverse baseline of different business to springboard into actual medium sized businesses.
But sure, explain how you don't understand a damn thing again.
@@reyalsregnava Socialism is merely half-assed communism. We live in a globalized world. People don't even care about their own countries or families, let alone their communities or bakers. The utopian pipedream of socialism keeps gullible suckers captivated like religion does...
Would you please do an economic outlook of the USA for the next 10 years. Thanks.