Companies that try to replace human’s entirely will only create the opportunity for other companies accepting both neuralink augmented humans and robots to gain an advantage over those that only use robots ❤😊😂😂😂😂😂😂
As a "small" scale rural farmer (no tractors) our biggest expense is labour, about $28,000 per employee (40 hrs/ week @ $20/hr for 8 months/year). And that is IF we can find any willing workers. IF we can they often make many costly mistakes, take time off for vacations, and productions plummets if it is too hot, too cold, too rainy, or when they are too tired. Humanoid robots are terrifying to me, but at the same time I can't help but be drawn to the possibility that they could be the solution we have been looking for...
It almost certainly will be the solution for you but for other people who depend upon labor jobs they're pretty much screwed. There's going to be lots of unemployed in the future and I don't think most folks support Elon and Trump know what's in store for them
@@laughinggas5281- Elon has already talked about what the rewards for faithful displaced workers will be, and who do you think will fare better, Trump and Elon supporters, or Leftists drones with no useful education, purposeful self-motivation, or enjoyable lives? Future rallies will be even happier places to be than the competitors’ “concerts”, where not even the “entertainers” are entertaining.
@@happyhillsfarm9598 he’s a bot should have a 100% annual ROI for you and that’s for a low paying job think how crazy that is. It will completely revolutionize the economy
Jeff is the best in explaining business and manufacturing, thank you sooo much for doing this guys, the Tesla community really needs guys with expertise to explain what is going on, as you explain this, in this podcast, the world is going to change so much in the next decade
Hans might be useful if he could think and speak at upwards of normal human speed. It’s painful trying to comprehend what he’s trying to communicate before I have to go eat a meal, sleep, get something more useful done, etc. Maybe he can hire some soon-to-be-unemployed current administration speechwriters to tippy-tap his thoughts into a teleprompter that can be read via a text-to-speech bot at normal speeds …
O ya? Where is his insight to where the fully automated gui-llo-tine factories are going to be built, when all the jobless that will be didplaced join the ranks of the already massive pool of unemployed desirable? Asking for a firend
Good day from Goonellabah, NSW, Australia. I was the project manager and civil engineer. I worked as an engineer in Singapore from 1999 to 2005. We designed and constructed twelve-kilometre tunnels with two boring tunnel machines and five stations. I also managed 160 engineers and architects. I have been a contract engineer since 1975, Constructing sewage and water treatment plants from Melbourne to Cairns. I applied to NASA in 1974 to be an astronaut in the Apollo Space Program. I became an engineer. - 🤗Cheers, Ian Cleland
Hello FARZAD, YOU, JEFF LUTZ, HANS NELSON and HERBER ONG are the mega rock stars on you tube. Thank you so much!! for all of your richly detailed conversations in the Tesla EV, autonomous and robot humanoid industry.
One of the best interviews/ discussions! Love the channel guys! Jeff is a wealth of vital information! Please have him back on again soon! Excellent stuff, keep up the great work 🙏🏻👏🏼
I agree, one of the very best discussions out there, so interesting to have the deep dive into the Tesla company, now I feel like a cow, I have to listen to it again a second time. Tomorrow after digesting this info. The thing Jeff brought to my attention, we only see Elon using Ai in his products, but what is he doing with this internally, as making large scale manufacturing is 1000 times harder then developing the product, all we see is other companies with great cars and bots, but if I am correct, no one will catch up to Elon as he is already light years ahead with manufacturing. If building the factory is this hard and nobody else can do this, is this going to be the biggest moneymaker for Tesla, not the FSD, not robotaxi, not the bot, it is building Ai powered human-less factories.
Your guests on the last dozens of episodes are really awesome! Especially Jeff is a Diamond of the Tesla community! But when will James Dauma be part of your 3h podcast Farzad? You made us wait for it so long ago! 😅
Jeff is an awesome resource and asset to the Tesla Community --- all the "inside information" helps to solidify confidence in buying/holding the stock. The reduction in COGS information he shared 6 months ago is a good example. If we're not careful Tesla is going to hire Jeff, he'll then be under an NDA, and we'll never hear from him :-)
@@jeffreylutz1208- Ummm, is there any other kind of actual experience besides lived experience … dead experience? No, reading or watching a video about something is not the same as experiencing it. I hate those kinds of trite, meaningless phrases that keep creeping into our lexicon.
human labor will soon be outcompeted by robots. The world's economy will no longer be based on work, but on investment. Great that it is possible to invest in TSLA. ❤
@toddai2721 you know what, yeah. Robofactories is one thing but if I ever learned yhat robots were actually just reproducing I would be rather frightened.
Great points from Jeff and Hans on the implications of fungibility. But how is fungibility achieved? Maybe James Douma and Scott Walter have some thoughts. The curse of dimensionality means that humanoid robot degrees of freedom compared to FSD will preclude E2E vision to actuator training as a solution for most task sets. Scott Walter talks about forward kinematics vs inverse kinematics. FK will solve handing a drink can to a person from a bench. But you need IK predictive processing to pass the Wozniak test of making a cup of coffee in a strange house - a proxy for real fungibility. IKPP needs dynamic hierarchical planning and continuous micro movement control feedback to reach goals in highly variable environments - different floor plans, kitchen layouts, toys on the floor, jumping dogs, wet floors, different outlet locations, coffee making methods etc. If you need these variables in your training data fungibility decreases and Optimus starts to economically resemble a Fanuc.
I've never understood why a highly technical business that requires extensive engineering is being run by people with an MBA. Don't get me wrong, MBA's have their place but not running a business that requires extensive engineering. Their focus is on optimizing the business to make the maximum profit. Unfortunately this often leads to the demise of some very good companies. Engineering is expensive and it often takes time for new designs to become profitable not to mention some of them are high risk. It is so nice to see a technical company that has a very good engineer leading it thriving when others are falling. Full disclosure.....I'm an engineer.
Agreed. The engineer that has a business degree/MBA/experience is what the industry needs. I've seen engineers try to do the business part and lack the skills to manage the big picture. I see Musk as having both skill sets.
@@jeffreylutz1208Sure, 4500 is 2.5 times 1800 but still closer to 1800 than 10,000. I see you a number of places but this is a particularly useful discussion.
thats an interesting thought about the way you would be able to change the factory line....that got me thinking about other future product lines...like being able to replace the arms as a part for example and that could be used by artist or metal workers being able to create unique shapes while the metal or glass being molded like clay or with metal work using teleoperation with a higher heat resistant material for the arms so you can handle..like actual "hands"...those types of materials at those just past melting point or handling hot materials out the kiln or smelter, industrial oven...whatever instead of having for it to cool down before humans can work on it if the cool down isnt needed for the product....that would/could increase output....just a way out there thought
I've been telling people for a while now that they need to "pick a team", because the world is going to be very different and the team that "wins" is going to control basically the entire economy. IMHO that team is Tesla. Setting aside any kind of differences with you have with Elon, and just picking the "winning team" seems like it will lead an investor to Tesla. So may people right now seem completely unaware of the tidal wave of change that's coming. And when the economic waters recede they'll be standing around wondering how such a strange situation could occur - while those of use who saw it coming jumped in our investment boats and moved into deeper waters.
I heard one thing Jeff said recently was that Optimus will replace some fixed robots because Optimus is far more flexible. One day Optimus’s cousin Dusty, the inDustrial, version will replace much bigger fixed bots - the reason is again flexibility that Tesla needs for unboxed and evolving product manufacturing. Think Transformers, kind of size. A team of dusties will be capable of “becoming” a complete manufacturing line within hours instead of the normal weeks and months.
Thanks you guys, this is probably one of the best podcast I have heard in a long time, and I listen to them all, I am 100% all in Tesla, after 2019 scared out of my position with all the talk about bankruptcy on the legacy media, now I am back for this rally, thank you so much Jeff, for all your expertise on manufacturing, this gives me the courage and confidence to stay all in, it is really not easy, it is for sure a very emotional rollercoaster. The future is going to be craaaazy, we are living in a sci-fi movie thanks to Elon, just so exciting to see the bots going to mars in a couple of years, so so crazy!!! 🚀 🤖
Drones (and any battery-powered aircraft) is a classic market that Tesla must enter. Intelligent drones, intelligent fighter aircraft, intelligent robot-warriors is a set of National security devices in which US must become competitive. If China has the lead, they will militarize it.
Brilliant conversation re: USA manufacturing revolution, engineering led corporations, cost inflation reduction, global tariff advantages that don’t increase domestic inflation. It’s our USA global competitive advantage future.
ROI and a Paradigm shift in what GDP actually is. If we’re smart we would pay off our debt with the savings first then enjoy next level prosperity. I hope we don’t f**k this up.
Robots building robots and everything else means we don’t need cheap labor from somewhere else. We will have our own. Everything can be made at home. Our imagination will be the limit.
To add to my last comment, with humanism we illuminate and try sometimes well to acquit what nature has provided. An atom is the wee'st thing we can see with a microscope all smaller is just by interpretation of what we do not understand yet, it's not 5G or 6G rather think 5D chess which is the the best you can achieve whilst staying happy.
Just imagine how agriculture changes with the bot. Also, land fills, factories, restaurants, in the home, in stores. Might be a market for 100 bots per human. That is 800 or 900 billion robots. Could get 300 bots to log a forest sustainably. Cut 1 tree down, bots pick it up, drag it out, move down 2000 ft., get another tree. No more clear cutting bullshit.
my understanding was that Tesla could not source the vast majority of the commonly built items that are built by suppliers simply due to the fact no supplier was building off the shelf products that Tesla needed for Optimus........so tesla ended up designing and building these in house......from what I can see from how Tesla and elon covet vertical integration it seems to me it would be highly unlikely Tesla would farm these home grown items out.......they simply will build more capacity.....from a cost and quality standpoint this makes sense in the long term and Tesla and in Particular Elon have a world of knowledge of how to economically scale up..... considering how far in front Tesla is this will work as no one else will beat them to market.....By the time there is competition Tesla will already be scaled up to the point that without government funding (china) no one will be able to compete... this scenario is exactly what has happened in the EV market...no other EV maker is even profitable and other than the government funded Chinese EV's are going to be at a disadvantage including China.... at least domestically ....particularly if trump imposes tariffs what no one mentioned here is the effect this will have on illegal immigration......Optimus will help manufacturing......but..........its going to totally turn upside down the low wage job market......Optimus will take your order at the MacDonald's drive up ,take your order.... take your money.....,,take your food....cook your food... and hand it to you ....and give you a straw......it will stock all the shelves at your grocery store and at Walmart........it will check you out and take your cash or credit card.......it will clean the floors and dust the shelves.... simply put........the jobs that are commonly sought out and got by immigrants illegally or otherwise are going to disappear .......the vast reason so many immigrants attempt to come here is for economic reasons..........to get a job and make money...........yes there still will be those who come here for asylum but even that will lessen......it will mostly only be skilled workers legally entering after Optimus takes root...............stores will be open 24hrs a day.........most service business like duncan will be open 24hrs.... everywhere....Banks will likely be open 7 days a week 24hrs a day....on and on.......... the only thing stopping this is the usual elephant in the room....Politics and Government intervention......the same thing that has slowed down progress in this country since around the 1880's when states started fixing railroad rates in Iowa and other places making much needed branch-lines become unprofitable and hurting towns as railroads then switched many from daily trains to 2 or 3 times a week.....other than the need to monitor and make illegal clearly predatory business policies in almost every instance government regulation has historically hurt far more than it helped and clearly stifled development and growth...
You build a great product as low cost as possible. Resource your own manufacturing and production processes and your ahead of anyone. Actuators are the key and Tesla makes their own.
How many businesses and jobs don't exist because they are not viable at $15/hr labor rates, but make sense at $5/hr labor rates? How much retail could remain open 24/7 if labor cost no longer constrains business hours?
When you switch to Optimus, there is another huge win. There is a ton of floor space dedicated to putting a cage around the extents of the area around a large bot so it can keep humans safe. And there are additional stations required so humans can safely feed the large robots and other tools and presses. You need none of that for Optimus. No OSHA issues. Only Optimus is interacting here. So I would expect it would shrink the floor space needed in a big way which is more efficient.
When this video started, my headphones were accidentally off and it just looked like Farzad was just sitting there having an imaginary conversation with his own hand.
The biggest reason for China taking over manufacturing was the labor cost advantage. Humanoid robots will level the playing field. I think this will cause a shift of manufacturing back to the United States.
@@jebes909090- You are a prime target for early replacement by robots based on your demonstrated lack of an ability to recognize reality as it’s changing in front of you. People are prone to overestimate in the short term of under five years, and woefully suffer from underestimation of what will happen in the next 10 years. I took about 13 years for horse-drawn conveyances to be essentially completely replaced by automotive vehicles in urban areas. The average ICE auto becomes economically unviable to repair today in those same 13 years. Unlike in the past, the Revolution IS being televised, and archived in front of us in real time for careful study by intelligent beings.
@@jimmanley7153 nope. you are the same optimistic futurist type that believed we'd all have flying cars and be living on the moon by now. i live in reality, not your utopian wish.
Battery weight and power density, let alone motor power delivery limitations, mean that robot soldier viability per field period deployed will continue to be a serious weakness, and that’s before weapons and ammunition carriage is resolved. Swarms sound great until they get onto and above a chaotic battlefield, where identification as friend or foe (IFF) and fratricide are insurmountable issues, so far. Offensive and defensive electronic warfare aren’t even being addressed, since electromotive, computing, and communications power needs aren’t being adequately addressed, much less electromagnetic interference within and among friendly robots/drones, and enemy platforms - fuhgeddaboudid. Then, there are environmental issues such as water and humidity resistance (there is no such thing as waterproof - exposure time is the limitation), temperature handling (cold kills batteries, and heat … boils them), abrasive dirt and dust exposure (and inevitable intrusion), sensor obfuscation/cleaning, shock resistance (mechanical, as well as electrically conducted and induced), and the integration of all of the above. It’s all fun ‘n games until the incoming starts arriving. It might not be a bad idea to incorporate some prayer code in these beasts - there are no atheists in foxholes at that point.
What would be wrong with replacing one human with more than one bot? How about those dock workers who went on strike a couple of months ago? Some of them are purported to earn $120k/yr.. How about replacing one of them with 4 bots at $30k/bot? Thus the investment in bots is the same as the single year earnings of a stevedore, at least, during the initial year. However, those 4 bots will learn the same job and all become experts and, this is key, all then work the 2nd shift and then the 3rd shift, replacing a second $120k/yr worker and a 3rd also. Thus, the $120k investment in 4 bots displaces $360k in human salaries, providing 'green' upside in the first year, even at a 4 for 1 initial replacement ratio, then turned into a '4 bots for 3 humans' ratio per DAY. Thereafter, for example in year 2, the investment in bots is zero, or near zero versus the ongoing, relentless expense spent on the humans of $360k/yr. minimum.
basically what faza is saying is that this is the first principles of all things manufacturing. All you know of factories are now all from square one. First principles doesn't just mean you make something never been made before, but also how you use that thing is a entirely new field, never seen before. That is what first principles in humanoid is and will be.
57:47 Tesla has been working on AI manufacturing and using AI for running Tesla for longer than we know.❤🎉 Beautiful Interview. Thanks Guys. Great Work.❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🙏
Tesla should begin by implementing these bots in the easiest jobs to start. As they learn new tasks something like an apps store could be created. Every Optimus can add data to real world training. Having massive supercomputers ad scaling Optimus will lead to fast improvements in capabilities.
Farzad, thanks for this video... please try and have Jeff Lutz join Sandy Munroe for this same discussion. It would be a benefit for Sandy (to promo of his business) by discussing these issues, thanks.
Jeff is incredible at distilling his experience into layman's terms with insight and humour.🤯 A thought about running chip fabs occured to me that running them with bots (even tele-operated) would be an incredible saving because humans leave a dirty trail with, bacteria, skin, hair and even breathing which need vast systems for non contamination. Bots can be sterile 24/7. The bot brains part reminds me of a video from YT channel Connecting the Dots regarding Nvidia's in house brain training software for all buyers of their product. Worth a look.💷
Clean rooms for facilities like semiconductor fabrication (fabs) are built from the inside out. You start with clean-manufactured parts that are delivered in sealed materials (essentially giant expandable bags) and are assembled with clean-built tools. Double-sealed interfaces are married up and removed through some very clever, very proprietary, sleight-of-hand. The air pressure is always higher on the inside than the outside, with multiple redundant extremely filtered air sources. People enter, work, and exit only while wearing “bunny suits” that the outsides of are only exposed to the fab interior, and the insides of the suits constrain the “filthy” humans with their biological contamination and “street grime”. At any given time when in production, there are only less than a dozen people working inside a fab, keeping the machinery and electrical subsystems running 24/7, and replacing things before they fail since everything is instrumented to detect anomalous trends before failures occur. Downtime in a fab in production is measured in millions of dollars per MINUTE if a failure occurs within any critical path in the processing of silicon wafers and the finished chips cut from them.
Simple, but understand this, as on Rannoch iron partical's were seen in the burns "water streams" this was played with by man whom used fire to eventually turn that iron into a weapon i,e a sword. But how you may say, It is our human mind that pursues a goal in innovation ect, now steel and all that followed such. The human mind is required to produce a quantum chip but an "AI" can never understand our very human WHY.
So cool and brilliant to make our own products at home!!! President Trump said bring back our factories in 2017 after he took office and many came back ..then Covid 19. 😔
So for manufacturing of electronic goods and parts in the USA that means with all the outsourcing situation Tesla is 30 or more years ahead in manufacturing in the USA that's insane
HANS' EXCELLENT POINT💪❤: Is illuminating yet frightening.... My question is can ELON convince the "politicos" of the critical national security importance of these manufacturing issues... ⁉
This is a very good suggestion. While I understand the ease and enjoyment of have having a more spontaneous rambling interactive conversational style of asking questions it’s way more focused and content rich and reduces listening fatigue to prepare succinct questions like Tim Farris does
@@FarzadMediaINCThat's the right answer! I've been listening since before your video explaining ESPP, whenever that was. Also memorable and important information. This is my favourite video from your channel. Jeff is a gem.
The big question is how do we make it here, given what we have and don’t (yet) have here. If Optimus improves rapidly, it can fill in some talent holes we have here. In fact, now that I think about it, AI and humanoid robots will be able to solve almost all our problems, so that’s what we need to win. Thankfully we have Tesla and Nvidia seemingly in the lead, and TSMC’s AZ fab should help, as well as ASML being Western.
My spreadsheets are showing that right now Tesla is worth $50,000 a share. They’ll have 449 trillion in cash in the year 2041. Assume 90% growth in bots until then. 2025: 100,000, then 190,000, then 360,000. In 2041 there’s 6 billion Tesla bots
If I could have an Optimus Robot I would like to make "Bender" stick on skins like for a cell phone and have Optimus say benders famous catch phrase. "Bite my shiny metal *ss".I would just like to see people's reactions.
Jeff on X: x.com/thejefflutz
Companies that try to replace human’s entirely will only create the opportunity for other companies accepting both neuralink augmented humans and robots to gain an advantage over those that only use robots ❤😊😂😂😂😂😂😂
Hi Farzad! First time poster. Just want to say that Jeff rocks and this was such a fantastic episode!
As a "small" scale rural farmer (no tractors) our biggest expense is labour, about $28,000 per employee (40 hrs/ week @ $20/hr for 8 months/year). And that is IF we can find any willing workers. IF we can they often make many costly mistakes, take time off for vacations, and productions plummets if it is too hot, too cold, too rainy, or when they are too tired.
Humanoid robots are terrifying to me, but at the same time I can't help but be drawn to the possibility that they could be the solution we have been looking for...
It almost certainly will be the solution for you but for other people who depend upon labor jobs they're pretty much screwed. There's going to be lots of unemployed in the future and I don't think most folks support Elon and Trump know what's in store for them
@@laughinggas5281- Elon has already talked about what the rewards for faithful displaced workers will be, and who do you think will fare better, Trump and Elon supporters, or Leftists drones with no useful education, purposeful self-motivation, or enjoyable lives? Future rallies will be even happier places to be than the competitors’ “concerts”, where not even the “entertainers” are entertaining.
@@laughinggas5281
Elon advocate for minimum living wage. As a Conservative I am against the idea, but with robotic coming we may no other choice.
@@happyhillsfarm9598 he’s a bot should have a 100% annual ROI for you and that’s for a low paying job think how crazy that is. It will completely revolutionize the economy
You and 9 billion others. And we don’t want just 1.
I have so much RESPECT FOR JEFF! He has taught me so much and I love listening to him and this conversation is a banger!
Jeff is the best in explaining business and manufacturing, thank you sooo much for doing this guys, the Tesla community really needs guys with expertise to explain what is going on, as you explain this, in this podcast, the world is going to change so much in the next decade
Jeff is an excellent source of information, and so are Hans and Farzad. Thank you all for the great content.
Hans might be useful if he could think and speak at upwards of normal human speed. It’s painful trying to comprehend what he’s trying to communicate before I have to go eat a meal, sleep, get something more useful done, etc. Maybe he can hire some soon-to-be-unemployed current administration speechwriters to tippy-tap his thoughts into a teleprompter that can be read via a text-to-speech bot at normal speeds …
I'm a fan of Jeff Lutz's expertise and plain speaking about the mechanics of production.
Fascinating to hear Jeff’s impressive thoughts on this. Thanks very much!
Jeff Lutz is one of my favorite watches. His insights are fantastic!
I also like his watch face.
O ya? Where is his insight to where the fully automated gui-llo-tine factories are going to be built, when all the jobless that will be didplaced join the ranks of the already massive pool of unemployed desirable?
Asking for a firend
Good day from Goonellabah, NSW, Australia. I was the project manager and civil engineer. I worked as an engineer in Singapore from 1999 to 2005. We designed and constructed twelve-kilometre tunnels with two boring tunnel machines and five stations. I also managed 160 engineers and architects. I have been a contract engineer since 1975, Constructing sewage and water treatment plants from Melbourne to Cairns. I applied to NASA in 1974 to be an astronaut in the Apollo Space Program. I became an engineer. - 🤗Cheers, Ian Cleland
I don’t know what I appreciate more, Jeff’s incredible knowledge or his exquisite style sense in über hip eye wear.
Hello FARZAD, YOU, JEFF LUTZ, HANS NELSON and HERBER ONG are the mega rock stars on you tube.
Thank you so much!! for all of your richly detailed conversations in the Tesla EV, autonomous and robot humanoid industry.
One of the best interviews/ discussions! Love the channel guys! Jeff is a wealth of vital information! Please have him back on again soon! Excellent stuff, keep up the great work 🙏🏻👏🏼
I agree, one of the very best discussions out there, so interesting to have the deep dive into the Tesla company, now I feel like a cow, I have to listen to it again a second time. Tomorrow after digesting this info. The thing Jeff brought to my attention, we only see Elon using Ai in his products, but what is he doing with this internally, as making large scale manufacturing is 1000 times harder then developing the product, all we see is other companies with great cars and bots, but if I am correct, no one will catch up to Elon as he is already light years ahead with manufacturing. If building the factory is this hard and nobody else can do this, is this going to be the biggest moneymaker for Tesla, not the FSD, not robotaxi, not the bot, it is building Ai powered human-less factories.
You need to talk about China with its robotics and manufacturing capabilities. It's naive to have this conversation without a talk about China.
Exceptional conversation. Thanks for sharing.
Your conversations are so rich and timely.
Your guests on the last dozens of episodes are really awesome!
Especially Jeff is a Diamond of the Tesla community!
But when will James Dauma be part of your 3h podcast Farzad?
You made us wait for it so long ago! 😅
Love listening to Jeff Lutz!
Jeff is an awesome resource and asset to the Tesla Community --- all the "inside information" helps to solidify confidence in buying/holding the stock. The reduction in COGS information he shared 6 months ago is a good example. If we're not careful Tesla is going to hire Jeff, he'll then be under an NDA, and we'll never hear from him :-)
lol thanks. I have zero non-public info. Just providing analysis and opinions based on lived experience. Appreciate the kind words 😊
@@jeffreylutz1208 Hey Jeff…. You’re welcome….watch you with Herbert, too. *** I pick up my Model Y next week. Can’t wait to try FSD 13.
@@jeffreylutz1208- Ummm, is there any other kind of actual experience besides lived experience … dead experience? No, reading or watching a video about something is not the same as experiencing it. I hate those kinds of trite, meaningless phrases that keep creeping into our lexicon.
@@jimmanley7153 🙄
Maybe the most substantive Tesla capability video I have seen. Thank you Farzad, Hans & Jeff
Best content on Tesla in a long time!
Bots building bots 24/7. Scary numbers in a short period of time.
Skynet approves
Bots having bot fornication making baby bots... scary.
human labor will soon be outcompeted by robots. The world's economy will no longer be based on work, but on investment. Great that it is possible to invest in TSLA. ❤
@toddai2721 you know what, yeah. Robofactories is one thing but if I ever learned yhat robots were actually just reproducing I would be rather frightened.
Optimus wont be doing any of that.
Really smart take by Jeff re factory changes.
Great points from Jeff and Hans on the implications of fungibility. But how is fungibility achieved? Maybe James Douma and Scott Walter have some thoughts. The curse of dimensionality means that humanoid robot degrees of freedom compared to FSD will preclude E2E vision to actuator training as a solution for most task sets. Scott Walter talks about forward kinematics vs inverse kinematics. FK will solve handing a drink can to a person from a bench. But you need IK predictive processing to pass the Wozniak test of making a cup of coffee in a strange house - a proxy for real fungibility. IKPP needs dynamic hierarchical planning and continuous micro movement control feedback to reach goals in highly variable environments - different floor plans, kitchen layouts, toys on the floor, jumping dogs, wet floors, different outlet locations, coffee making methods etc. If you need these variables in your training data fungibility decreases and Optimus starts to economically resemble a Fanuc.
Really interesting content, cool to hear his form his POV how big some of what’s Tesla is doing
Jeff is a monster.
scary-good kind
I've never understood why a highly technical business that requires extensive engineering is being run by people with an MBA. Don't get me wrong, MBA's have their place but not running a business that requires extensive engineering. Their focus is on optimizing the business to make the maximum profit. Unfortunately this often leads to the demise of some very good companies. Engineering is expensive and it often takes time for new designs to become profitable not to mention some of them are high risk. It is so nice to see a technical company that has a very good engineer leading it thriving when others are falling. Full disclosure.....I'm an engineer.
Engineers 💪
Agreed. The engineer that has a business degree/MBA/experience is what the industry needs. I've seen engineers try to do the business part and lack the skills to manage the big picture. I see Musk as having both skill sets.
always a great discussion with these three.
Great show. Thanks for all you guys teaching me.
Wow. Many new insights. Thank you Jeff. It is hard to believe that an Optimus does not have a much larger parts count than an iphone.
Oh it does … I’m just projecting it to be closer to the part count of a high end smartphone vs a high end EV if that makes sense
@@jeffreylutz1208Sure, 4500 is 2.5 times 1800 but still closer to 1800 than 10,000. I see you a number of places but this is a particularly useful discussion.
Nailed it guys.
thats an interesting thought about the way you would be able to change the factory line....that got me thinking about other future product lines...like being able to replace the arms as a part for example and that could be used by artist or metal workers being able to create unique shapes while the metal or glass being molded like clay or with metal work using teleoperation with a higher heat resistant material for the arms so you can handle..like actual "hands"...those types of materials at those just past melting point or handling hot materials out the kiln or smelter, industrial oven...whatever instead of having for it to cool down before humans can work on it if the cool down isnt needed for the product....that would/could increase output....just a way out there thought
Great analisys🏅🏅
It doesn’t matter if it’s slower than a human (in the beginning) as the robot can work twice as long doing 20hours a day of work
I've been telling people for a while now that they need to "pick a team", because the world is going to be very different and the team that "wins" is going to control basically the entire economy. IMHO that team is Tesla. Setting aside any kind of differences with you have with Elon, and just picking the "winning team" seems like it will lead an investor to Tesla. So may people right now seem completely unaware of the tidal wave of change that's coming. And when the economic waters recede they'll be standing around wondering how such a strange situation could occur - while those of use who saw it coming jumped in our investment boats and moved into deeper waters.
Bon Voyage!
Jeff you are giving me a headache. Great answers to great questions. Love it!
Proximity of supply chain is most important for heavy low value products. Proximity for computer chips is not an issue.
Tesla community is so lucky to have Jeff!
How do you get so many competent and interesting guests? Great conversation! Thanks!
I heard one thing Jeff said recently was that Optimus will replace some fixed robots because Optimus is far more flexible.
One day Optimus’s cousin Dusty, the inDustrial, version will replace much bigger fixed bots - the reason is again flexibility that Tesla needs for unboxed and evolving product manufacturing. Think Transformers, kind of size.
A team of dusties will be capable of “becoming” a complete manufacturing line within hours instead of the normal weeks and months.
Thanks you guys, this is probably one of the best podcast I have heard in a long time, and I listen to them all, I am 100% all in Tesla, after 2019 scared out of my position with all the talk about bankruptcy on the legacy media, now I am back for this rally, thank you so much Jeff, for all your expertise on manufacturing, this gives me the courage and confidence to stay all in, it is really not easy, it is for sure a very emotional rollercoaster. The future is going to be craaaazy, we are living in a sci-fi movie thanks to Elon, just so exciting to see the bots going to mars in a couple of years, so so crazy!!! 🚀 🤖
He and Douma are MVPs
Jeff 👍👍👍
Drones (and any battery-powered aircraft) is a classic market that Tesla must enter. Intelligent drones, intelligent fighter aircraft, intelligent robot-warriors is a set of National security devices in which US must become competitive. If China has the lead, they will militarize it.
What do u think the actual ufo are
Great podcast!
They're building the machine that builds the machine
SomeGuy
Imagine all 7-11 workers being Optimus ..😂😂😂
Brilliant conversation re: USA manufacturing revolution, engineering led corporations, cost inflation reduction, global tariff advantages that don’t increase domestic inflation. It’s our USA global competitive advantage future.
Robot manufacturing is different than smartphone in that Tesla is making so many of the parts themselves. Not outsourcing like most companies do.
There back room cost of labor like tax health care stocks sick days etc
13.2.2 just became available 😊
@@ryanolson2430 ‘splains me boz?
ROI and a Paradigm shift in what GDP actually is. If we’re smart we would pay off our debt with the savings first then enjoy next level prosperity. I hope we don’t f**k this up.
Robots building robots and everything else means we don’t need cheap labor from somewhere else. We will have our own. Everything can be made at home. Our imagination will be the limit.
To add to my last comment, with humanism we illuminate and try sometimes well to acquit what nature has provided. An atom is the wee'st thing we can see with a microscope all smaller is just by interpretation of what we do not understand yet, it's not 5G or 6G rather think 5D chess which is the the best you can achieve whilst staying happy.
Awesome panel 💪❤️
Just imagine how agriculture changes with the bot. Also, land fills, factories, restaurants, in the home, in stores. Might be a market for 100 bots per human. That is 800 or 900 billion robots. Could get 300 bots to log a forest sustainably. Cut 1 tree down, bots pick it up, drag it out, move down 2000 ft., get another tree. No more clear cutting bullshit.
my understanding was that Tesla could not source the vast majority of the commonly built items that are built by suppliers simply due to the fact no supplier was building off the shelf products that Tesla needed for Optimus........so tesla ended up designing and building these in house......from what I can see from how Tesla and elon covet vertical integration it seems to me it would be highly unlikely Tesla would farm these home grown items out.......they simply will build more capacity.....from a cost and quality standpoint this makes sense in the long term and Tesla and in Particular Elon have a world of knowledge of how to economically scale up..... considering how far in front Tesla is this will work as no one else will beat them to market.....By the time there is competition Tesla will already be scaled up to the point that without government funding (china) no one will be able to compete... this scenario is exactly what has happened in the EV market...no other EV maker is even profitable and other than the government funded Chinese EV's are going to be at a disadvantage including China.... at least domestically ....particularly if trump imposes tariffs
what no one mentioned here is the effect this will have on illegal immigration......Optimus will help manufacturing......but..........its going to totally turn upside down the low wage job market......Optimus will take your order at the MacDonald's drive up ,take your order.... take your money.....,,take your food....cook your food... and hand it to you ....and give you a straw......it will stock all the shelves at your grocery store and at Walmart........it will check you out and take your cash or credit card.......it will clean the floors and dust the shelves....
simply put........the jobs that are commonly sought out and got by immigrants illegally or otherwise are going to disappear .......the vast reason so many immigrants attempt to come here is for economic reasons..........to get a job and make money...........yes there still will be those who come here for asylum but even that will lessen......it will mostly only be skilled workers legally entering after Optimus takes root...............stores will be open 24hrs a day.........most service business like duncan will be open 24hrs.... everywhere....Banks will likely be open 7 days a week 24hrs a day....on and on..........
the only thing stopping this is the usual elephant in the room....Politics and Government intervention......the same thing that has slowed down progress in this country since around the 1880's when states started fixing railroad rates in Iowa and other places making much needed branch-lines become unprofitable and hurting towns as railroads then switched many from daily trains to 2 or 3 times a week.....other than the need to monitor and make illegal clearly predatory business policies in almost every instance government regulation has historically hurt far more than it helped and clearly stifled development and growth...
You build a great product as low cost as possible. Resource your own manufacturing and production processes and your ahead of anyone. Actuators are the key and Tesla makes their own.
How many businesses and jobs don't exist because they are not viable at $15/hr labor rates, but make sense at $5/hr labor rates? How much retail could remain open 24/7 if labor cost no longer constrains business hours?
Lol and who will they sell to? If everyone is replaced by robots, whos gonna be buying anything?
We are bringing all manufacturing to the U.S.. And freedom of speech is coming back.
❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉
By bringing back manufacturing back to USA, innovation started to bud left and right.
When you switch to Optimus, there is another huge win. There is a ton of floor space dedicated to putting a cage around the extents of the area around a large bot so it can keep humans safe. And there are additional stations required so humans can safely feed the large robots and other tools and presses.
You need none of that for Optimus. No OSHA issues. Only Optimus is interacting here. So I would expect it would shrink the floor space needed in a big way which is more efficient.
When this video started, my headphones were accidentally off and it just looked like Farzad was just sitting there having an imaginary conversation with his own hand.
The biggest reason for China taking over manufacturing was the labor cost advantage. Humanoid robots will level the playing field. I think this will cause a shift of manufacturing back to the United States.
No it wont. Humanoid robots are jnferior to both humans and specialized robots. They are mearly a toy for the rich.
@@jebes909090- You are a prime target for early replacement by robots based on your demonstrated lack of an ability to recognize reality as it’s changing in front of you. People are prone to overestimate in the short term of under five years, and woefully suffer from underestimation of what will happen in the next 10 years. I took about 13 years for horse-drawn conveyances to be essentially completely replaced by automotive vehicles in urban areas. The average ICE auto becomes economically unviable to repair today in those same 13 years. Unlike in the past, the Revolution IS being televised, and archived in front of us in real time for careful study by intelligent beings.
@@jimmanley7153 nope. you are the same optimistic futurist type that believed we'd all have flying cars and be living on the moon by now. i live in reality, not your utopian wish.
@@jebes909090that’s why phones don’t exist and we all still ride horses right?…
@@jebes909090do you even understand the actual reason why this stuff takes a long time is a combination of government and people like YOU 😂👍🏽
How long before Optimus can bolt on its own legs!
What makes you think it CAN’T?
This should be an incredible advancement. We can take it to the next level.
Can't believe I almost missed out on Cardano and XAI555g! Thanks for the heads-up in your video!
Took delivery last week -
Today -> ‘Internal short in AP4 Car Computer (Remove and Replace)’
Doh!
I saw this coming a week ago
So what about humanoid soldiers? Or intelligent swarm behaviour?
I think the "dog" format is even better...
Battery weight and power density, let alone motor power delivery limitations, mean that robot soldier viability per field period deployed will continue to be a serious weakness, and that’s before weapons and ammunition carriage is resolved. Swarms sound great until they get onto and above a chaotic battlefield, where identification as friend or foe (IFF) and fratricide are insurmountable issues, so far.
Offensive and defensive electronic warfare aren’t even being addressed, since electromotive, computing, and communications power needs aren’t being adequately addressed, much less electromagnetic interference within and among friendly robots/drones, and enemy platforms - fuhgeddaboudid.
Then, there are environmental issues such as water and humidity resistance (there is no such thing as waterproof - exposure time is the limitation), temperature handling (cold kills batteries, and heat … boils them), abrasive dirt and dust exposure (and inevitable intrusion), sensor obfuscation/cleaning, shock resistance (mechanical, as well as electrically conducted and induced), and the integration of all of the above.
It’s all fun ‘n games until the incoming starts arriving. It might not be a bad idea to incorporate some prayer code in these beasts - there are no atheists in foxholes at that point.
What would be wrong with replacing one human with more than one bot? How about those dock workers who went on strike a couple of months ago? Some of them are purported to earn $120k/yr.. How about replacing one of them with 4 bots at $30k/bot? Thus the investment in bots is the same as the single year earnings of a stevedore, at least, during the initial year. However, those 4 bots will learn the same job and all become experts and, this is key, all then work the 2nd shift and then the 3rd shift, replacing a second $120k/yr worker and a 3rd also. Thus, the $120k investment in 4 bots displaces $360k in human salaries, providing 'green' upside in the first year, even at a 4 for 1 initial replacement ratio, then turned into a '4 bots for 3 humans' ratio per DAY. Thereafter, for example in year 2, the investment in bots is zero, or near zero versus the ongoing, relentless expense spent on the humans of $360k/yr. minimum.
basically what faza is saying is that this is the first principles of all things manufacturing. All you know of factories are now all from square one. First principles doesn't just mean you make something never been made before, but also how you use that thing is a entirely new field, never seen before. That is what first principles in humanoid is and will be.
57:47 Tesla has been working on AI manufacturing and using AI for running Tesla for longer than we know.❤🎉 Beautiful Interview. Thanks Guys. Great Work.❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🙏
Lutz! Outstanding!
Tesla should begin by implementing these bots in the easiest jobs to start. As they learn new tasks something like an apps store could be created. Every Optimus can add data to real world training. Having massive supercomputers ad scaling Optimus will lead to fast improvements in capabilities.
How is Optimus when capable of carrying 20kg be able to take over most of the work?
Every Major League Baseball team should be allowed to have one robot on the team.
Major cost savings. 😅 Fun idea, no idea how it would work.
@@geirmyrvagnes8718 Hits a homerun every time.
Opti can catch!
Oh man, we ain’t ready for this disruption. The robots leveled up big time this year. 2025 gonna be bananas.
Pretty scary 😨 maybe UBI is all we will have left.
Farzad, thanks for this video... please try and have Jeff Lutz join Sandy Munroe for this same discussion. It would be a benefit for Sandy (to promo of his business) by discussing these issues, thanks.
@smart phone guy: step one, make in a human form please. Hand is round and curved not alien flat and square I believe.😊
Jeff is incredible at distilling his experience into layman's terms with insight and humour.🤯
A thought about running chip fabs occured to me that running them with bots (even tele-operated) would be an incredible saving because humans leave a dirty trail with, bacteria, skin, hair and even breathing which need vast systems for non contamination.
Bots can be sterile 24/7.
The bot brains part reminds me of a video from YT channel Connecting the Dots regarding Nvidia's in house brain training software for all buyers of their product.
Worth a look.💷
Clean rooms for facilities like semiconductor fabrication (fabs) are built from the inside out. You start with clean-manufactured parts that are delivered in sealed materials (essentially giant expandable bags) and are assembled with clean-built tools. Double-sealed interfaces are married up and removed through some very clever, very proprietary, sleight-of-hand. The air pressure is always higher on the inside than the outside, with multiple redundant extremely filtered air sources.
People enter, work, and exit only while wearing “bunny suits” that the outsides of are only exposed to the fab interior, and the insides of the suits constrain the “filthy” humans with their biological contamination and “street grime”. At any given time when in production, there are only less than a dozen people working inside a fab, keeping the machinery and electrical subsystems running 24/7, and replacing things before they fail since everything is instrumented to detect anomalous trends before failures occur.
Downtime in a fab in production is measured in millions of dollars per MINUTE if a failure occurs within any critical path in the processing of silicon wafers and the finished chips cut from them.
Yes. That's as I understand it.
@@jimmanley7153
Simple, but understand this, as on Rannoch iron partical's were seen in the burns "water streams" this was played with by man whom used fire to eventually turn that iron into a weapon i,e a sword. But how you may say, It is our human mind that pursues a goal in innovation ect, now steel and all that followed such. The human mind is required to produce a quantum chip but an "AI" can never understand our very human WHY.
Put me on the list of people who want to watch the afternoon long videos on this topic
I want to imagine all afternoon!!!!!!
I have so many more questions now than answers after this episode. Hopefully the secret sauce is actually gearing up to address the issues.
Amazon invests in Optimus 😂😂
So cool and brilliant to make our own products at home!!! President Trump said bring back our factories in 2017 after he took office and many came back ..then Covid 19. 😔
Humanoid robots cost the same anywhere in the world. 50:38
So for manufacturing of electronic goods and parts in the USA that means with all the outsourcing situation Tesla is 30 or more years ahead in manufacturing in the USA that's insane
HANS' EXCELLENT POINT💪❤: Is illuminating yet frightening.... My question is can ELON convince the "politicos" of the critical national security importance of these manufacturing issues... ⁉
Farzad, please ask short and focused questions.
This is a very good suggestion. While I understand the ease and enjoyment of have having a more spontaneous rambling interactive conversational style of asking questions it’s way more focused and content rich and reduces listening fatigue to prepare succinct questions like Tim Farris does
No.
@@FarzadMediaINCThat's the right answer!
I've been listening since before your video explaining ESPP, whenever that was.
Also memorable and important information.
This is my favourite video from your channel.
Jeff is a gem.
Jeff Lutz is great and methodical- Farzad seems to over generalize/sensationalize Jeff’s points.
Someone should lookup the word "Fungible"
Qvarden Token will go 100x after launch on Binance
@@bisenkoshle2634 hawktwoie coins are lit 💩
The big question is how do we make it here, given what we have and don’t (yet) have here. If Optimus improves rapidly, it can fill in some talent holes we have here. In fact, now that I think about it, AI and humanoid robots will be able to solve almost all our problems, so that’s what we need to win. Thankfully we have Tesla and Nvidia seemingly in the lead, and TSMC’s AZ fab should help, as well as ASML being Western.
Qvarden Token is going to absolutely blow up
Love your insights! Waiting for your Grinchzmass review, it's skyrocketing!
We need them anduril drones yo. Palmer Luckey has us covered
Highly likely there will be partnerships between X or Tesla with Qvarden Token
Elon’s main product is AI. In factories, cars, homes, highways, airplanes, everywhere!
Most Americans are one pay cheque away from being broke. They cannot afford a $20,000 robot if it even works.
My spreadsheets are showing that right now Tesla is worth $50,000 a share. They’ll have 449 trillion in cash in the year 2041. Assume 90% growth in bots until then. 2025: 100,000, then 190,000, then 360,000. In 2041 there’s 6 billion Tesla bots
If I could have an Optimus Robot I would like to make "Bender" stick on skins like for a cell phone and have Optimus say benders famous catch phrase. "Bite my shiny metal *ss".I would just like to see people's reactions.