Developers jobs are safe from AI until stakeholders and management can explain project requirements that don’t sound like they were generated by a buzz word generator that sniffed a line of blow On a more serious note, I always found LLM‘s to generate average code. Funny enough, they are statistical models and are doing exactly what we expect. Predicting outcomes. I don’t like average code. What I do like, is spending time on a problem and perfecting it through code. I’m not gonna say my code is perfect, but I enjoy the process of trying to perfect the program. It’s very fulfilling. Since we are grilling some of the AI hype, I thought I would throw this one out there too. All the devs that say “Hoooleeey Sheeet our jobs are toast!” Are probably the same baboons that think SPA CRUD apps are the pinnacle of programming and don’t understand anything outside of their suboptimal JS framework 😂
As a software consultant with 12 years of programming experience and around 7 of work experience and 4 of research experience, I can easily tell you understand true software development and how AI affects it without knowing anything about you I agree sooo much with the points you bring up and to me, these points are extremely obvious yet no one seems to get it. Anyways, this is an fun yet extremely insightful video. Hope it gets lots of traction
Kicking out the dev is like kicking out the Pilot because Autopilot exists now. The real issue with AI is that it's getting rid of spenders. Every person that gets fired due to AI or is fearing for their job is a customer lost. If Jensen's dreams come true, he will literally tank his own company.
As the CommitStrip's oooold comic says "do you know the industry term for a project specification that is comprehensive and precise enough to generate a program? Code. It's called 'code'." I'm a dev, but I always say, that my effectiveness doesn't stem from some uber programming skills, but because I am able to talk with a non-technical person and find out what they actually want to achieve, which often might be something very different to what can percolate through all kinds of weird corporate structures...
I agree. AI will be the golden ticket for people with deep understanding and who can do it. It's worthless for people who have no idea what to do with the output.
this is what naval ravikant talked about in future there will be many smaller business and people will have their own business and interact with each other to create things. ( i have butchered what he said ) i thought about this for a while even dan koe talked about this its generalisations market ahead.
Conflicting stuff. If you presume that AI will generate garbage code, thus the generated test cases for your code or for the generated code will be trash as well. If the tests are trash, then your quality assurance process is trash, making your product trash by default.
@@rezah336 it's the exact same scenario as yours bud, if we assume the oversimplified analysis that AI will let 2 devs do the work of 5 is actually correct. I have a hard time believing productivity is linearly correlated with code quality or even revenue.
Don't forget that AI for code generation will not stay on this level. It will be multiple times better just by the end of next year. Flying a plane is nowadays also already completely automated (till the early 90s you still had a crew of 3-4 pilots flying them and by 2013 the Airbus A350 was fully automated). Nearly every sane person is able to land a modern plane with very little help of the ATC. And the same will happen in the future with software engineering. 20 years ago only programmers were able to create a decent website with a shop. Nowadays everyone can with the services available. Automation for code documentation and testing comes first and soon after that regular devs are going to get replaced. Maybe not in the next 2-3 years, but surely latest by the next decade. Bigger companies that own market leading AIs with huge server farms are going to start much sooner behind closed doors. This is the next big thing because they can make hundreds of billions with the best model! It's like the moon landing for the software world and the race has just started. Don't compare public available models with what Google or Microsoft is going to offer for special cases of multi billion companies. Those are completely different to what you are able to get your hands on. Public, censored GPT is only a tiny fraction of what's really possible. Just like in chess, computers are able to outperform humans in coding if you give it enough data and processing power. Most software engineers are not geniuses. Just nerds interested in creating software, math, problem solving and IT in general. Maybe we will soon also start to see completely different AI models not based on Generative Pre-trained Transformers that blow everything existing out of the water. Just like we did a couple of years ago with the models before GPT. A breakthrough in hardware could also accelerate everything very, very quickly. Sure, software engineers are always needed to create the services for all the different companies using AI but the amount of them will be much, much less and only the very best will survive. We're heading back to the 60s. Back when mostly very smart math and physics university graduates did programming.
Developers jobs are safe from AI until stakeholders and management can explain project requirements that don’t sound like they were generated by a buzz word generator that sniffed a line of blow
On a more serious note, I always found LLM‘s to generate average code. Funny enough, they are statistical models and are doing exactly what we expect. Predicting outcomes. I don’t like average code. What I do like, is spending time on a problem and perfecting it through code. I’m not gonna say my code is perfect, but I enjoy the process of trying to perfect the program. It’s very fulfilling.
Since we are grilling some of the AI hype, I thought I would throw this one out there too. All the devs that say “Hoooleeey Sheeet our jobs are toast!” Are probably the same baboons that think SPA CRUD apps are the pinnacle of programming and don’t understand anything outside of their suboptimal JS framework 😂
Bro woke up and chose violence 💀💀
As a software consultant with 12 years of programming experience and around 7 of work experience and 4 of research experience, I can easily tell you understand true software development and how AI affects it without knowing anything about you
I agree sooo much with the points you bring up and to me, these points are extremely obvious yet no one seems to get it. Anyways, this is an fun yet extremely insightful video. Hope it gets lots of traction
Kicking out the dev is like kicking out the Pilot because Autopilot exists now.
The real issue with AI is that it's getting rid of spenders. Every person that gets fired due to AI or is fearing for their job is a customer lost.
If Jensen's dreams come true, he will literally tank his own company.
As the CommitStrip's oooold comic says "do you know the industry term for a project specification that is comprehensive and precise enough to generate a program? Code. It's called 'code'."
I'm a dev, but I always say, that my effectiveness doesn't stem from some uber programming skills, but because I am able to talk with a non-technical person and find out what they actually want to achieve, which often might be something very different to what can percolate through all kinds of weird corporate structures...
Yooo this guy is the shit just subbed much love
Thx bro 🙌
I agree. AI will be the golden ticket for people with deep understanding and who can do it. It's worthless for people who have no idea what to do with the output.
this is what naval ravikant talked about in future there will be many smaller business and people will have their own business and interact with each other to create things. ( i have butchered what he said ) i thought about this for a while even dan koe talked about this its generalisations market ahead.
Conflicting stuff. If you presume that AI will generate garbage code, thus the generated test cases for your code or for the generated code will be trash as well. If the tests are trash, then your quality assurance process is trash, making your product trash by default.
if 2 devs can do the work of 5 devs that is 60% jobs lost, this will happen
No, it won’t.
if 0 pms and scrum masters can do the work of 10 of them, that is 100% jobs lost, this will happen
Even if this were true, jobs have exploded since the compiler was invented. I think we're fine.
@@xevious4142 then it was a new industry so it is not the same scenario
@@rezah336 it's the exact same scenario as yours bud, if we assume the oversimplified analysis that AI will let 2 devs do the work of 5 is actually correct. I have a hard time believing productivity is linearly correlated with code quality or even revenue.
Lost it at 4:59 😂
Glad I found this!
Enjoyed this content brudduh, danke
Don't forget that AI for code generation will not stay on this level. It will be multiple times better just by the end of next year. Flying a plane is nowadays also already completely automated (till the early 90s you still had a crew of 3-4 pilots flying them and by 2013 the Airbus A350 was fully automated). Nearly every sane person is able to land a modern plane with very little help of the ATC. And the same will happen in the future with software engineering.
20 years ago only programmers were able to create a decent website with a shop. Nowadays everyone can with the services available. Automation for code documentation and testing comes first and soon after that regular devs are going to get replaced. Maybe not in the next 2-3 years, but surely latest by the next decade. Bigger companies that own market leading AIs with huge server farms are going to start much sooner behind closed doors. This is the next big thing because they can make hundreds of billions with the best model! It's like the moon landing for the software world and the race has just started. Don't compare public available models with what Google or Microsoft is going to offer for special cases of multi billion companies. Those are completely different to what you are able to get your hands on. Public, censored GPT is only a tiny fraction of what's really possible.
Just like in chess, computers are able to outperform humans in coding if you give it enough data and processing power. Most software engineers are not geniuses. Just nerds interested in creating software, math, problem solving and IT in general. Maybe we will soon also start to see completely different AI models not based on Generative Pre-trained Transformers that blow everything existing out of the water. Just like we did a couple of years ago with the models before GPT. A breakthrough in hardware could also accelerate everything very, very quickly.
Sure, software engineers are always needed to create the services for all the different companies using AI but the amount of them will be much, much less and only the very best will survive. We're heading back to the 60s. Back when mostly very smart math and physics university graduates did programming.
I ALWAYS say......If you gave everyone J.A.R.V.I.S they would not be able to make an Ironman suit.
Somehow these videos feel a bit AI-y, BTW.
Almost like a result of conversations with Claude or smth.
best answer hahah