467 | Annie Jacobsen: What Would the First Minutes of a Nuclear War Look Like? - The Realignment Pod
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2024
- Annie Jacobsen, journalist and author of Nuclear War: A Scenario, joins The Realignment. Marshall and Annie discuss what experts predict the initial minutes after a nuclear launch and strike would look like, why the return of Cold War style relationships between great powers has brought the threat of nuclear conflict back to the forefront, the history of the U.S. military and Executive Branch's nuclear policies, and the need to ensure that adversary nations maintain lines of clarity and communication to prevent a disastrous miscalculation.
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0:00 - Introduction
1:14 - Annie’s book
5:06 - Decentralizing Washington
8:26 - Paradox of nuclear weapons
12:45 - Modern day nuclear conflict
16:55 - Different conceptions of nuclear weapons
21:33 - Tactical nukes
25:03 - History of nukes
30:26 - What should policymakers do?
35:37 - Nuclear incidents
40:59 - Annie’s previous books
45:52 - UFOs
It’s kind of crazy to me to hear Annie talking about this stuff on almost an introductory level for the younger generation. I’m a member of generation X, and most of us were pretty well imbued with the details of mutually assured destruction at a young age. Never thought we’d be ratcheting this up again like we are
Thank the (D)omestic Enemies! I’m Gen X & we have all been watching this for decades!
Yeah you've been manipulated for decades just like your ancestors LOL
Russian nuclear weapons don't work.
MY dad loaded nuclear bombs and missiles on aircraft in the 1960s, (Cuban missile crisis!) Then my brother worked Boomer's (nuclear missile subs) 1980s then spent 30 yrs testing them DARPA! Few military or scientists even know if most of these weapons will blow! 😅 💥🚀 Having talked with one of the guys who break's them down, and then told us , they're having build new ones! Which are only tested on computer simulations!😅
(British nuclear weapons, just failed, their testing! Russians 😅, haven't taken better care of theirs!)
Get out the BBQ get ready to go
Americans: The Day After was terrifying!
Threads: Hold my beer.
Oh bloody Hell! I'm on the can!
Should be “Hold my radioactive lager”.
You got that right. Threads makes Nightmare On Elm Street look like a Disney film. Just horrifying (though brilliantly done).
"The Day After" movie 1979 would be like being hit by a squirt gun compared to an actual nuclear war. The earth would be a burnt-out cinder. soon after a nuclear war. Holywood lacks the props made to realize everything it entailed of actual nuclear war for two reasons, there never has been to experience it (except WWII which was too minor and weak at that time) and the process is under lock and key. The movie would have looked like paradise and a luxury of living compared to an actual nuclear war according experts.
And as for ‘The Wargame’ (1965)… hand me the Valium!
I'm not stalking Annie around the internet, promise, but I read her book a few weeks ago and I think we definitely need an updated 2024 version of The Day After. A new generation needs to see it.
Ah, nostalgia! I grew up on this stuff. In my adolescence it was unavoidable. At one point opponents of nuclear war hired an hour of primetime television, I believe on NBC, and went over this information in detail-and I already knew it then. In fiction, at the time, it showed up in things like The Day After and some pulp fiction materials that make Fallout 4 look cheerful now. People did take it seriously. I think you could find that there was a significant upsurge in nuclear war events happening in movies, such as in Terminator 2, after the fall of the Soviet Union; prior to that, it was just too real. I didn’t ever imagine that the Berlin Wall could be removed, and throughout my adolescence assumed that there would be a nuclear war and we’d all die.
It’s been so many years now that young people may have lost touch with the reality of nuclear war and know it only from fiction, so Jacobsen may be breaking new ground with them. When the Ukrainian war kicked off the young pundits I watch-Saagar Enjeti, Krystal Ball, BJG, etc.--cited the possibility of nuclear war without seeming to really know what they were talking about. Brinksmanship and Mutually Assured Destruction, once elemental strategic tools, have largely been forgotten. They are just as callow with respect to inflation, for that matter.
It’s fascinating that this has been going on for over seventy years now. A lot of the characteristics of it don’t have to be that way-I mean we have a lot of legacy assumptions, and the Dan Carlin podcast (Hardcore History 59 The Destroyer of Worlds) brings a lot of those up. For example, in every simulated or fictional nuclear war scenario I’ve ever seen it is understood that responsibility for launch lies with the President and that he’s got to go through an extensive rigamarole involving a briefcase and codes and so on-but originally the Joint Chiefs assumed that they would have custody of the weapons, the same way they did for aircraft and rifles and so on, and that they would decide what war conditions might occasion their use. They were shocked when Truman insisted that he would hold special command over these weapons.
But, Sam, we were always led to believe that a nuclear "engagement" (not "war") was survivable (remember "duck and cover"?) ....it is abundantly clear that such an "engagement" is not survivable. If you don't believe me, look up a map of target sites....the sites are not limited to "military" targets.
I am reading Annie Jacobsons nook now. Bought it yesterday.
It kept me up all night and read half of it in a nuclear flash!
Terrifying stuff.
Best nuclear war scenario I have ever read.
Going back to it pronto!
i worry more about our leaders degraded decisions more than that of others , we are insane ,
💯 agree
It’s frightening to think that as we sleep, weapons are pointed at each other
Hee Hee this USAF veteran here was responsible for the the Security of a Minute Man launch site while it was under going manitance or repairs. If the order came to Launch the Minute Man. All of us would have been incenerated by the blast off. Now picture you are there at 18 yrs . Good times are a coming .
That's been my reality growing up.
Nuclear weapons need leaders with integrity 😢!
Young ones with loving extended families. These installed oldies are everywhere & wanting to take us with them to the grave.
Humans are really bad at discretion between a good leader and a confidence man.
The most terrorifying film I ever watched was called "Power of Decision" produced by the US government during the cold war. It's not that the film portrays a nuclear war, it's the mindset of being able to win one.
Just bought Annie's new book this morning in audiobook form and thoroughly enjoying it!!!
Watched The day after with my wife a couple weeks ago. She's younger than me and doesn't remember what it felt like growing up in the 80s with the nuclear threat looming over us back then. It was strange seeing the world as I remember it as a kid in grade school as the backdrop to this horror story. It makes me furious the crazy old warmongering boomers, the ones who ruined absolutely everything, refuse to go away and hand the power over to a saner generation are bringing us to the brink of total destruction trying to relive their youth or whatever the hell this is..
I've listened to many Jacobsen interviews and have to say this is an outstanding - thought-provoking - interview!
Mam...I listen to you in it entirely podcast...I've been extremely concerned about nuclear war...I totally agree with you...We are only 1 from anything happening...My heart is humble that much more...My God bless you and thank you....😎
Gorbachev was a great man, who showed the way for us all......unfortunately, we by and large ignored him
It was actually very predictable the pressure was on Russia when RR and Thatcher worked together to increase arms production . Russia could not afford to keep up tittering on complete co;;apse working as it did with a command economy, it was all about money as usual , As Trump said to the Germans stop buying cheap energy from Russia they will use the cash to re arm as they have done so we are back to the cold war
MY dad loaded nuclear bombs and missiles on aircraft in the 1960s, (Cuban missile crisis!) Then my brother worked Boomer's (nuclear missile subs) 1980s then spent 30 yrs testing them DARPA! Few military or scientists even know if most of these weapons will blow! 😅 💥🚀 Having talked with one of the guys who break's them down, and then told us , they're having build new ones! Which are only tested on computer simulations!😅
(British nuclear weapons, just failed, their testing! Russians 😅, haven't taken better care of theirs!)
Love Annie’s work. Impressed with the original and well thought out questions from this interviwer. 👌🏻😎👌🏻
why do you assume the "lacking partner" is on the Russian, Iranian or Chinese side?
yes I'm worried about us strikes n I'm in NYC , we're insane
@@joeymurdazalotmore6355Yes! You are completely insane in NYC.
We know that Russia's monitoring technology is found wanting. Iran and North Korea have less to lose for a launch. We know that corruption in the military is widespread in China but how that affects their capabilities we really don't know.
ẨSMR nuclear annihilation story time
A refreshing dose of reality in the 21st century.
What a calming voice for such a terrifying topic.
0:51 LOL… We did not *all* grow up in the “War on Terror” era.
What the younger generation don't understand that atomic warfare before Castle Bravo and after Castle Bravo. A war based on fission bombs what thought to be winnable if, and only if, Stalin takes all of Europe and looks at Canada and the United States. You can defend against an small atomic attack with fission bombs by bomb shelters and evacuation in the era of bombers and accept hundreds of thousand of horrible deaths. After the Castle Bravo test of the Thermonuclear Bomb, a blast equal of 6 million tons of TNT, the realization was that there is real no defense to this bomb. You can't shelter from it, you can't get away from it when dropped from a bomber, there is nothing you really can do. There could be no "small" nuclear war anymore. Only 4 Thermonuclear bombs in the Ionosphere can cripple Russia, China, or the United States and 30 strategically placed ones can destroy much of those military forces.
Brilliant conversation.
Thank you for this video and your host. I think the British movie Threads is better and scarier than The Day After. It also tries to answer the question of what happens after the war is over and does humanity recover.
tactical = battlefield super weapon
strategic = genocide super weapon
Her voice, like honey being poured 😍
Lol😂
As someone who lived through the 80's, i dont think it would hurt to show what nuclear war looks like.....i think when the so called"cold war" ended, there is a generation that hasn't really lived under that threat y'know? But now.....
Will my vape pen work after a nuke???
you can spark a cone without a lighter when it goes bang.
You’re good 👍🏻
Your vape pen will work, but your lungs won't.
In a way, it will be you who is smoking , not the vape pen mate
Ha..maybe not..😢
fascinating to hear annie
Thanks for this. I can hardly wait. 🤔 ( "Green Fire", IngramSpark, geoff nelson hill, UK ) 🌈🦉
Fabulous author
Great book Annie !
Just finished listening to it on Audible (I also bought it in hardback version) did I miss something or was China not part of the apocalypse ?
P.s. the weapons they have got now are smaller but just as deadly and more versatile
Annie mentions 6 minutes for an ICBM to arrive. What about a hypersonic missile launched from a submarine in the sea a few miles from Washington DC? I would guess it's much less than 6 minutes.
Hypersonics don’t actually have much of an impact on this for a bunch of different reasons. But it’s all still plenty scary without them.
NO. 26 minutes from Russia to hit the east coast of America and 33 minutes from North Korea to east coast America.
The 6 minutes is the time the president has to make a decision of what to do.
First, all ICBMs are hypersonic by default. Even WWII German V-2 was. V-2 had maximal speed that exceeded 5,760 km/h (3,580 mph). When we talk now about hypersonic missiles we mean something like cruise missile capable to fly at hypersonic speeds. Second, an ICBM launched from silo in Siberia needs approximately from 27 to 32 minutes to reach American territory. Third, Russians STILL DON'T HAVE a fully functional hypersonic missile. Just a few days ago Patriot without any problems shot down two Russian hypersonic Zirkon missiles over Kiev. Fourth, Russian submarine can't just suddenly emerge "in the sea a few miles from Washington DC". ALL Russian submarines are constantly shadowed by the U.S.Navy.
@@kuroneko9710
"just a few days ago Patriot without any problems shot down two Russian hypersonic Zirkon missiles over Kiev"
I think the ukrainians have been doing that a number of times throughout the war too,
A russian jet bomber just outside say British airspace could launch a missile, probably taking less than 10 minutes,if hypersonic even quicker.
Russian bombers are always being intercepted and escorted out of British airspace.
I've heard her say her and other podcasts about 1,700 Nukes that are forward deployed. I wonder what her definition of "forward deployed" is?
Ther we s no button,its a key that gets turned
That's right.
Must be a button on there some where ? I want a button
Shes accurate about the tv series "the day after" from 1983. As a kid it was terrifying, and we just assumed our world was headed in the direction. Then when Gorbichov and Reagan decided to "tear down that wall" it was like a world wide kumbayah and it felt like everything was moving forward in a positive direction. At the time, the 90's seemed a little edgy but in reality it was out last innocent time. Social unrest like Columbine and then 911 changed everything forever for me and it has been downhill ever since. And here we are again worrying about possible nuclear war. I don't see it getting better in anyway.
How about hyper-sonics missles? Russia and who else knows has them
Even with the threat of nuclear war, someone's got a book to sell.😂
5:50 Annie explains we have a Triad of nuclear weapons systems... submarines, ICBMs, and bombers... a "backup of a backup of a backup"... in case a nuclear weapons system "gets taken out by an enemy". Is it really possible an entire weapons system can be taken out? Can all missile silos, or all subs, or all bombers be taken out? I ask because a ton of money is about to be spent overhauling the land based ICBMs... which are sitting targets and arguably reduce our protection, i.e. create a greater threat to our lives. We have more than enough bombs in submarines and bombers to wipe out all life on Earth (except maybe cockroaches). The additional deterrence value of adding ICBM's seems to be far beyond the point of diminishing returns... maybe zero deterrence value. I think a better alternative to the Sentinel ICBM upgrade is a large reduction in existing ICBM's... and maybe some control upgrades to make it possible to defuse them after launch.
what difference does it make as to what it would look like we would all be kaput
Eh, one of the factors in the famous Drake Equation is the length of time that a "noisy" civilization (i.e., that puts out radio waves) is the length of time that the civilization exists - and I have always thought that this is the key factor.
As for Ukraine, I think it is worth the risk to continue supporting the Heroes with weapons to defeat the Orcs, since a society that appeases Evil will eventually get vanquished by Evil. Taken to its inevitable conclusion, all that needs to happen is for a nuclear state to threaten the rest of the world into submission to give it everything it wants, making the rest of the world slaves to that master. That is no way to live.
The best policy to go forward is to spend "whatever it takes" to get a missile defense system, such that every bit closer to 100% probability of successful defense means another city that is saved. And then after the war happens, and a few cities get taken out, have the political wherewithal to levy Eisenhoweresque taxes on upper income folks so as to take care of the survivors and rebuild. Hopefully by then, the crazy Republican intransigence to Medicare-for-All will be history.
Lunatic
Any one remember 7 ,Days to the Rhine, I sure do.
Dear lady no offense but I live 31miles from Ft Liberty NC. The former Ft Bragg. The sand hills of central NC are as flat as pizza. Dead is dead.
Play at 2x for best results...
there will be no survivors. anywhere!
Don't Worry Be Happy
There seems to be some misunderstanding of "Tactical Nuclear Weapons'. The yield of a 'normal' tactical is on the order of 200Kt, which is about 10 times larger that the ones dropped in WW2.
Hiroshima was a small city (225,000) and over 1/3 of the population disappeared in the first few seconds of the blast. Now multiply by 10 and you have a modern tactical device. There is no winning with tactical devices either.
Nobody really uses a single 1 megaton bomb tho. Everybody went to MIRVs with smaller warheads
I don't want to set the world on fire... 🎶🎵
This is such old news. Maybe it's just cos I'm GenX...but serious
Do you know what FOBS is, what is avangard and scramjet, what international low about freedom of sails says, what space EW means......new book needed.
Do you really think wooden destroy ourselves are you kidding for a human we're destructive
Threads on utube was worse than the Day After, absoltely terrifying😢😢😢
Are we sure that Russia is even competent enough to launch a nuclear weapon? According to The Day After its a pretty complicated process.
I've ready Annie's book and it was a real eye opener. However, I think using the word "war" to describe a nuclear exchange is a misnomer. The event will not be "war" in its' traditional since. The event will be a "nuclear holocaust", an mutual annihilation. There will be winners and all life forms will be losers. In the 1960's the term "MAD" was used to describe a nuclear exchange; "Mutually Assured Destruction", and that is what would happen. I get a little tired of webcasts and advertisements offering means by which one could "survive" nuclear war. No one knows when missiles will launch and will have very little warning once they are launched. and no opportunity to seek the shelter you have provide yourself. Like we said in the NAVY: in case of a nuclear strike, bend over, put your head between your legs, grab your "cheeks" and kiss your sweet ass goodbye. BAck in the 1960's, Nikita Khrushchev, then premier of Russia, said that in a nuclear exchange, the living would envy the dead. He was correct.
Ouch
To be accurate, British were affraid Germans would bomb them. Lets keep history as it was.
I find it both hilarious and terrifying that in this era people like this podcast host are drawing up scenarios where nuclear weapons can be used "tactically" while believing the threat of escalation would all end there somehow; Almost arguing for an excuse to use them to prove the extinction threat isn't a real thing. Totally insane.
Damn did she just the mushroom fireball is people's damn thats scary
Hiroshima was 15 kilotons... a mere baby compared to what is available today...
Like a peashooter compared to a Tank
Yes the nukes have been created for a reason and the luxury underground bunkers are being created for a reason as well.
Everyone should also read John Hersey's "Hiroshima."
If nuclear war happened right now and you survived....... How long does it take until you have to learn cannibalism? How long till your first mouthful of HU. (human) BF beef. ÇK chicken
You can't survive on a cannibal diet for long
Sorry, but Annie sounds like a kid that just found the cheat code for the video game that everybody stopped playing 10 years ago. She wants to make out that she has uncovered some horrific secret, but anyone alive since 1945 has known all of this their entire lives.
Her next book will be "Water is Wet!"
I believe if you pay attention to his speeches and interviews, that President Putin is passionate about avoiding nuclear confrontation. It seems to me that it is ‘the West’ that are hell-bent on ratcheting up the ante in the nuclear stakes. The Ukraine is a case in point.
True.
One country has used nukes. And they admit, now, they didn't need to.
Not true. Was the defeat of Japan worth an additional million allied lives? That is what a ground invasion may have cost.
Now for a constructive question, how do you deal with Psycopathic leaders. They cannot be trusted and nothing they say can be accepted as truth.
Putin signed a treaty with Ukrsine bin '92(?) And said he would not invade Ukraine in the month prior to his actual invasion.
Xi has told the Chinese people to prepare for war - Is Xi lying?
The weet will not start a war but will you trust any world dictator
That's bs, hundreds of thousands of American soldiers would've died during the invasion --- had they not been used.
Yanks doing yank things...
Wars and rumors of Wars! Welcome to the End Times!!!
Keeps plugging her book....
Ya know, if you call your video "What Would the First Minutes of a Nuclear War Look Like?", you might want to actually answer that question. Or at least ask it. Pretty pathetic using clickbait on a subject as serious as this.
What is it with jews that are so very cheerfull these days? Could it be the proximity to the Messiah coming...?
Maybe... no more matzos!!
Revelation 9:18
Nuclear war...its very very naughty 😋
This lady, doesn't say anything about the diabolical Samson option of the Zionists in Israe,WHY??
Marshall supports the introduction of F16s?
Edgelord - Ameropath
Fear that West stupidity risk is greater than Russia or China using Nuclear weapons, though who knows about North Korea? However there is a real risk of a mistake, such as "On 26 September 1983, during the Cold War, the Soviet nuclear early warning system Oko reported the launch of one intercontinental ballistic missile with four more missiles behind it, from the United States."
And yet people peg Donald Trump as Hitler…….. This fucking guy with 0 political exp steps over the NK DMZ and makes a link with Kim…. No credit whatsoever yet it was probably the biggest foreign US policy event in history
The first few minutes would be bright, very bright; and it would be very, very hot...
It would be a global BBQ!!
And the safest place will probably be the Moon, at least it would be the coolest place.
I bet you Elon has a rocket up his ssslieve ready to take him up...
Annie - great book and terrifying analysis. However, let’s be honest. Your apocalyptic analysis (and its end game is absolutely credible, but I have some skepticism as to the origins of the conflict) appears a bit naive.
1) the “mad king” of North Korea unleashes two nuclear weapons (the EMP weapon aside) on the US, knowing his actions will result in total and absolute destruction of the PRDK. Not really credible
2. Knowing that it was North Korea, and not Russia, that launched this nuclear attack On the US, that the US retaliatory strike would fly over Russia and risk their misinterpretation of a US strike on their country, is not credible. The US could move their SLBM’s into place and then strike North Korea and not provoke Russia would be logical. Yes, of course this would take longer. But surely long enough not to provide Russia ?
Not a realistic scenario to start WW111, although the rest of the story is so excellent
I agree with you, some of the book came over as the U.S. would be clueless as what to do
A jaded journo telling us something what we have known for decades, how has this creature been given any air space defies belief,next minute it will tell us that atom bombs kill and that shes the self appointed expert who has researched this and the 1st to tell us...
This is why the U.S. should NOT be sponsoring / waging a War on Russias border.
Thank you, Mister Russian Troll.
Seems kinda obvious.
@@swampwizreveals himself as a useful idiot.
Yeah, let's just ignore the fact that this war only became possible because the USA convinced Ukraine to give up their nukes to Russia in 1994 in exchange for "guaranteed sovereignty".
@@Shrikinator Yep. And the CIA sponsored a Coup in Ukraine in 2014. To install a Govt. which is hostile to Russia.
Dawg be less w eird
The paradox about the human mind is that it thinks way too much...😮
That is not a paradox
The speaking voice
The Day After wasn't a miniseries, it was a 127 minute made for TV movie. If Annie Jacobsen had actually watched it she'd know that.
Spot on
The elephant in the room no one seems willing to talk about is that the United States has already used nuclear weapons on two cities.
There are some people in DC who do not care about the past. They want a war now because China and Russia cannot be permitted to replace the U.S. as the empire superpower. The CIA will ensure this never happens even if it means killing 4 billion people in an effort to prevent toppling this government. Look at the local wars and government toppling the U.S. is attempting are the world.
Spot on...America doing America things...
What concerns me is how concerned he was. He works at a think tank and this seems new to him? I’d really rather we not all die, so it would be nice if the eggheads quit trying to be clever long enough to be smart.
halfway in and zero mention of China? are you fucking kidding me
The Chinese do not want to destroy the world. There top priority is replacing the U.S. as the most potent superpower militarily and economically. Their desire for revenge against the U.S. and England keeps them focused on the long game. Putin is a thug; Biden is a senile old man trying to keep his family out of prison: Xi is a master chess player who wants to destroy the U.S. economy so the Americans cannot afford to even manufacture a single bullet.
That is because who drops the nuke on you is not the material point
Ha spot on..😮
Nuclear war is bad. People will melt! Her breathless, NPR rendering is hilarious and classic say-nothing-new about old topic we already know all about !
Overproduction of (wannabe) "elites" kept going through my mind the entire time.
"My over 100 sources..." and a war plan, the only one ever revealed to the public, shows there is no way to win! Thanks, Professor Falken.
Wish i could have typed JOSHUA and bypasses this episode.
BTW: If you died in 1981; Reagan WAS a Madman & we were headed to nuclear war. Remember Liberal Queerbaits?
Maybe you don’t understand you poor thing? 🙄
After hearing this interview, I am further concerned about trump getting into office again. Remember when he taunted North Korea by saying: “my button’s larger than yours.” Then he exchanged “LOVE letters” w/him? Unimaginable…
And yet there was less conflict occurring in the wider world during the Trump administration - no invasion of Ukraine, no assault on Israel and the resultant operation in Gaza, no increasing risk of China invading Taiwan. Behind the scenes conversations, delivered in plain language as to what the US considers intolerable behavior, can avoid missteps by our rivals and thereby - less conflict.
@@richarddean3154 my thoughts exactly
@@johnappleby405Glad to hear it. There are too many people out here who believe that clearly telling our friends and rivals what we expect of them is a bad practice. Hopefully, you are in charge somewhere - if you are, I bet things are running smoothly.
The current geriatric President has put the U.S. on a War path with Russia and China. Trump is probably the only chance there is to avoid WW3.
Thank you. I'm not in charge of anything however! As you say there are too many people who are in the habit of lecturing our friends and allies.
Holy shit, I'm 47 seconds in and can't stand the heavy whisper lady..
Jesus, this woman wrote the EASIEST book on nuclear war. "Let's take common knowldge thats been available for 60 years, and we'll sensationalize it without raising ANY of the difficult questions." Forty-five minutes of self effacing bullshit! Just show the movie "Threads!"
Spot on
Please keep in mind this woman writes books and wants to sell books.
Spot on
Good video to watch before going to bed. 🤣🤣🤣
A peacenik activist journo wanting Ban the Bomb. What is this 1984? 😆
Yes…it is 1984. Literally and figuratively. Wake up. 🤦🏻♂️
THIS IS RUSSIA PROPAGANDA !!!
Who's the host? I mean, he doesn't even look real!
Who are you
Damn dude. Wtf