Is This Bitcoin Cycle Accelerated By 260 days?
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- Опубликовано: 4 мар 2024
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Is Bitcoin in an Accelerated Cycle? If so, does that mean Bitcoin will top sooner in this Bull Market compared to historical norms? In this episode, we'll look at the historical tendencies in BTC's price action when it comes to past Bull Market peaks as well as the Pi Cycle Top Indicator (a reliable Bull Market Top predictor) to compare results through the lens of a potential Accelerated Cycle.
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using the halving event for cyclical analysis is a poor way to do it. Cyclical analysis should be measured in time from bottom to bottom. if you do that then BTC is right on schedule.
So when will we hit the ATH of this cycle?
I like that this guy does analysis that doesnt just revert to other examples of previous cycles repeating with different meteics and actually shows where theres analysis that this cycle could indeed be different.
Quite a few youtubers who simply follow copy pasta previous cycles just keep pushing prior cycle metrics for this cycles despite it quite clearly playing out different.
Thank you man, much appreciated
Subbed, I like your style. Not talking unrealistic bullshit and clickbait
when will correction for btc happen before btc halfing ?
Where are we in bull atm , some saying mid way ??
What’s interesting now is the pi-cycle top indicator. In every previous bull market it’s broken above the 350 day x 2 moving average… which it looks like bitcoin has now done. Ahead of schedule? Maybe. Inline with previous bull markets on a different indicator. Seems so.
Hey how the date values are fixed in your chart's vertical line?
I turned on time label, but not working.
almost all time high
The Nov 2021 top seems to have been an anomaly, manipulated by FTX shenanigans. Curious about your outlook with the April top as a base case.
That's pretty much correct. That was the swing high after the true April top.
I think this 68/69k level is the true level that 48/49k was mistakenly said to be. 48/49k was said to be the swing high of the dead cat bounce thar happened in April 2022 after the "top" in Nov 2021. Problem is, that wasn't the actual top. Nov 2021 was the swing high dead cat bounce. Historically accurate indicators (pi cycle, monthly rsi etc.) pointed to April 2021 as the true top. This is why btc ran right thru 48/49k in one monthly candle unlike every other cycle when that zone was supposed to create a multi month rejection and correction.
The swing dead cat bouce high is supposed to be marked as the first monthly uptrend top after the first monthly downtrend bottom after the cycle top. This downtrend was Summer 2021 to form the base support of 31/32k. Then the Fall 2021 uptrend led to 69k as the swing high after the top. This was a strange dead cat bounce because it took btc slightly above the official top made in April 2021. The first dead cat bounce to do so after the peak. That bounce has every one confused til this day by mistakenly calling it the cycle top.
So no, I think 69k will be that ceiling that btc struggles to get above until after the halving. I think this is where the pre halving correction will start.
It actually is not unusual for btc to be close to 69k right now. It has always reached the swing high dead cat bounce level just before or right after the halving. That swing high level just so happens to be 69k. This level has mistakenly been identified as 48/49k because people keep mistakenly calling Nov 2021 69k the top when it wasnt. It was the swing high dead cat bounce.
A cycle top happens every 3.5 to 4 yrs in crypto. We are not ahead of schedule. Crypto is right on schedule and looking strong. The "4 yr cycle" is not broken. Its actually a 3.75 yr cycle not 4 and this is why the top ranges between happening every 3.5 to 4 yrs. Crypto topped in Nov/Dec 2013. 4 yrs later it topped in Dec/Jan 2017/18. 3.5 yrs later it topped in April/May 2021. Now! It's on track to top 3.5 to 4 yrs later which will be between Oct 2024 and May 2025. Everyone who was expecting a Q4 2025 top was off the mark. They are the same ones who think Nov 2021 was the top and strictly think that crypto must top exactly every 4 yrs on the dot in the 4th quarter of the yr.
Depends on which top you interpret as the "top"
Do you think we are early since we now have many ETF's causing more buying than normal? New Catalyst?
Kinda agree with the possibility of a cycle top in March. It lines up with Super Bowl, but also a simple theory of short-term participants. Some people buy before the halving and sell a year later. This happens every cycle. We have a set amount of ppl exiting no matter what after a year. The question is will they cause a dip big enough to trigger a trend reversal.
So 2025 regardless was when i was planning to scale out
thanks
Looks like we are getting some kind of a tree having retrace now. Who knows how far is going to go
Try treating the April 2021 as the top and we are right on course.
I will sell when monthly rsi gets to 90....lol
yes sir, candle 4 is the bull market, everything faster, my theory since 2023
December 2024- january 2025 = predicted peak of bullrun?
Im looking at -50% down from ATH. Will be buying at 30k to 40k area. Gd luck all
Yeah good luck to you as well. Waiting for those numbers. Lol
pre-halving crash is playing out. well played rekt capital. my short is printing money 🎉
i think bitcoin will hit 25.000 and then will go up to 180.000 within a year. Everyone most sell something and buy bitcoin once it is around 25.000
Yo
As I'm posting this BTC is down just over 10% today, just as it gets rejected from the ATH from November 2021. I'm looking for a Fibonacci retrace in the range of .382 to drop the price to around $52K. The reason for my thinking is there are a LOT of sellers taking profit that got in over the past few months and THEN we'll see the parabolic rise with more and more Institutional money pouring in and FOMO really kicks off. Couple that with the halving and only 450 BTC being added daily, the scarcity will become more apparent.
Huge dump incoming
Well it rejected lol
Am the first here
Getting confusing now