So glad I found you guys! I was killed during the SPAC-pocalypse (averaged down RKLB, SPIR, SMRT, etc), then turned to the math of Tasty mechanics in selling premium in high IVR environments. Thanks for the no b.s. approach to individual stock fundamentals and Bogleheading.
We love comments like this, thank you! Our goal at Nanalyze is to help people become better investors, so this is a wonderful compliment. The SPAC-pocalypse was not pretty, and we warned our subs about the dangers of SPACs well before the craze began. So sorry you were a victim, but we hope you can learn from it and become a better investor because of it. We all have our stories, trust us. Long-term, a disciplined no B.S. approach to investing is never a bad idea.
Thanks! I've been watching the EV market for quite some time, specifically battery recycling and mining. Have you done much of a dive into these stocks? I appreciate ya.
As an example, I'm particularly keen on ABAT, which was started by a group of former Tesla employees, and have been awarded hundreds of millions in grants. Thanks!
Hey Adam. We have seen this topic requested before. Mining is a rabbit hole we touched on before a while back (www.nanalyze.com/2020/10/investing-in-lithium/). Recycling we've done a few pieces on such as Li-Cycle (www.nanalyze.com/2021/10/li-cycle-stock-lithium-battery-recycling/) but $ABAT is way too small to be on our radar and we never look at anything pre-revenue. The topic has been raised by others so I'm aware of the interest and would suggest paying subscribers who find the thesis compelling should raise it on Discord. Thank you! Joe P.
Thank you for the reply and link, I'll definitely take a look. I've found your video series to be exceptional, I specifically enjoy the amount of data that you share. Adam
What about companies that focus on financing EV purchases in emerging markets? Could be interesting to explore from both an equity and debt investment perspective
That's an interesting idea, but we try to avoid exposure to consumer debt as much as possible. Did you have a specific company in mind? Thank you! -Wyatt C.
We're investigating this now. Multiple sources say they're a leader in SiC so we'll look into this more. It's been raised by others as well. Thank you!
Found this from EE Times: "The French-Italian group generated about $700 million in SiC revenue in 2022, with a plan to be above $1 billion in 2023." We need to find the source for that number.
@@piratehussam Super useful man, thank you! Wonder what the SiC total addressable market is expected to be? Also need to consider wafer production (Wolfspeed is a leader here?) while STM is a leader in the finished products (reading 40+ percent market share). Very interesting thesis around SiC that probably merits a video or article.
I have a small position on Indie, I like their position on focusing on perhaps only auto and their reach in China as other EV manufacturers will focus on major semiconductor names or produce their own. Also the share price makes it easier to DCA.
Any idea what they actually drive revenues from? We had a hard time figuring that out after a cursory look at their financials. Since so many people say they're holding Indie (and our paying subscribers have asked), this will probably be one we do a deep dive into. Not that fractional ownership should make any stock easy to DCA into these days.
Thanks for the insightful video. I like the thesis. Perhaps Himax Technologies can be a possible candidate. It's a Taiwan-based fabless manufacturer of integrated circuit display drivers , mainly the ones used on touch screens (TDDI). According to their last presentation (Q3-2023) 45% of their revenue originated from the automotive industry, and it's likely to grow as the number of screen units per car increases (monitors, cameras. Market cap is on the edge though-: 0.95 B$. Its ICs are integrated in computers and smartphones as well.
Thank you for the comment! Himax was raised before in a different context. We're generally staying away from entertainment type functionality, though not sure if touch screens are standard equipment for cheaper cars like those from BYD. Regardless, touchscreen tech is a commodity with plenty of competition.
Hadn't considered solid state as a way to play EVs. Problem is it's hard to see a company out there as a leader in solid state when most can't even drive revenues from that tech yet. Good to see Solid Power breaching the $10 million mark now, but still very small company.
Very good suggestion. We hadn't thought about the damage that might do to our brand so mentioned this to Gwyneth in HR and she's currently making them scrub all evidence from LinkedIn and we'll hope for the best. Thank you for pointing that out!
I don’t think BYD EV car ownership costs can be realistically compared to the cost of owning an EV in the United States. For ex. owning a EV vehicle in the north east USA is very different than owning a EV in China.
Totally agree. The TCO will differ for each country/province/state with cost of electricity and petrol being two key inputs. But perhaps the most important input is the initial cost of the vehicle, and that's where BYD is smoking the competition.
If EV is the future, and the tires wear out 20% faster, i wonder if that will boost the tire business. goodyear/firestone/brigdestone(i forgot which one doesn't exist anymore
Good point! The extent to which the tire business benefits will then depend on the pace of EV penetration. Also need to consider different vehicle types.
The progress China is has made as a country is nothing short of stunning. That's overshadowed by risks such as their massive shadow banking sector. Will China underperform the global economy in the coming decades? Difficult to say, but we wouldn't bet against their work ethic.
@Nanalyze I do not trust any numbers china puts out. EV sales numbers, for example, are insanely inflated. In order to take advantage of government ev subsidies, ev companies are pumping out more cars they can sell. They buy these cars from themselves and register them to make them appear to be a legitimate purchase. Each "sale" qualifies the company for government grants that more than pays for the production of the vehicle. The company then pockets the difference. There are fields and fields of tens of thousands of brand new ev's that have been rotting away for years. Not only that, but the same thing happened with ebikes; which china also includes in their ev sales numbers. There are literally mountains of ebikes also rotting away in fields. This is how china's economy works. It's mostly a facade. Not to mention local debt out weighing federal debt (which doesn't get included in their global financial reporting) and all the demographic issues with nose diving population. I'm so grateful for the decoupling that is currently taking place.
This was a claim some RUclipsr was making that's not substantiated from what I can see. Fields and fields of 10s of thousands? Not anything I've seen proof of. Bikes are a completely different story. The bike sharing business model was a debacle. No, China's economy is not mostly a facade. Maybe go there and check it out for yourself. There are issues with shadow banking, and the country has lots of problems, but your criticism of the place sound a bit off. Joe P.
We focus on revenues, not backlogs, because every company defines those differently. There's a lot more that INDI needs to tell us about what they're selling and to whom which seems missing from their financials.
First, I highly appreciate you focusing that topic this quickly and I respect that you only want to review companies you have knowledge about, like you mentioned not that far ago on my Indie comment. I personally own 7 stocks and Indie is my smallest and less favorit pick, still has 9 % share of the portfolio. I honestly don't like to be invested in the automtotive at all (very competitive, especially for OEM suppliers), but I really like the math behind Indie, especially on the revenue side. I like the 100% industrial focus, m & a strategy and the management / board of directors. I like the valuation and next quarter profitability. What I truly don't like is the massive stock based compensation, the cash debt marker cap ratio and in General that the business and activities of Indie for me are hard to catch, in my opinion it's a lot story selling, backlog focus and potential moonshots (what's actually going on with their charger components?). But I try my best to stay close to the company, they here and there announce some news and I follow them for instance on Linkedin which is sometimes very interesting - when they are on exhibitions and congresses, they seem very nerdy and very well connected. Overall, for me it's my strongest invest with a gamble touch. Looking forward to your evaluation.
Thank you very much for the comment! Only seeing this now. It's a SPAC. Expect a ton of story telling. Our Indi piece will be coming out shortly as an article.
Be sure to subscribe here for more insightful videos on disruptive technologies: 👇
ruclips.net/user/nanalyze
So glad I found you guys! I was killed during the SPAC-pocalypse (averaged down RKLB, SPIR, SMRT, etc), then turned to the math of Tasty mechanics in selling premium in high IVR environments.
Thanks for the no b.s. approach to individual stock fundamentals and Bogleheading.
We love comments like this, thank you! Our goal at Nanalyze is to help people become better investors, so this is a wonderful compliment. The SPAC-pocalypse was not pretty, and we warned our subs about the dangers of SPACs well before the craze began. So sorry you were a victim, but we hope you can learn from it and become a better investor because of it. We all have our stories, trust us. Long-term, a disciplined no B.S. approach to investing is never a bad idea.
Always enjoy the thorough expert analysis on this channel. Thank you!
You're most welcome! Thank you for the kind words.
Thanks! I've been watching the EV market for quite some time, specifically battery recycling and mining. Have you done much of a dive into these stocks? I appreciate ya.
As an example, I'm particularly keen on ABAT, which was started by a group of former Tesla employees, and have been awarded hundreds of millions in grants. Thanks!
Hey Adam. We have seen this topic requested before. Mining is a rabbit hole we touched on before a while back (www.nanalyze.com/2020/10/investing-in-lithium/). Recycling we've done a few pieces on such as Li-Cycle (www.nanalyze.com/2021/10/li-cycle-stock-lithium-battery-recycling/) but $ABAT is way too small to be on our radar and we never look at anything pre-revenue. The topic has been raised by others so I'm aware of the interest and would suggest paying subscribers who find the thesis compelling should raise it on Discord. Thank you! Joe P.
Thank you for the reply and link, I'll definitely take a look. I've found your video series to be exceptional, I specifically enjoy the amount of data that you share. Adam
@@adamg4490 That's great to hear Adam, thank you for the positive feedback! Joe P.
What about companies that focus on financing EV purchases in emerging markets? Could be interesting to explore from both an equity and debt investment perspective
That's an interesting idea, but we try to avoid exposure to consumer debt as much as possible. Did you have a specific company in mind? Thank you! -Wyatt C.
What about companies _supporting_ the financing of EV purchases in mature markets? FICO?
what about STMicroelectronics ($STM) they are also invest in Silicon Carbide ?
Do you know what percentage of their revenues come from SiC?
We're investigating this now. Multiple sources say they're a leader in SiC so we'll look into this more. It's been raised by others as well. Thank you!
Found this from EE Times: "The French-Italian group generated about $700 million in SiC revenue in 2022, with a plan to be above $1 billion in 2023." We need to find the source for that number.
In the latest earnings goal, they stated their goal to reach SiC revenue of 2B by 2025 and 5B by 2030.
@@piratehussam Super useful man, thank you! Wonder what the SiC total addressable market is expected to be? Also need to consider wafer production (Wolfspeed is a leader here?) while STM is a leader in the finished products (reading 40+ percent market share). Very interesting thesis around SiC that probably merits a video or article.
Lovely!!
Glad you enjoyed!
What are your thoughts on Aptiv? They are a supplier to both Tesla and BYD, might be a good way to play both sides.
We want exposure to EV components in particular. Doesn't Aptiv sell broad automotive components to all automakers?
I have a small position on Indie, I like their position on focusing on perhaps only auto and their reach in China as other EV manufacturers will focus on major semiconductor names or produce their own. Also the share price makes it easier to DCA.
Any idea what they actually drive revenues from? We had a hard time figuring that out after a cursory look at their financials. Since so many people say they're holding Indie (and our paying subscribers have asked), this will probably be one we do a deep dive into. Not that fractional ownership should make any stock easy to DCA into these days.
Thanks for the insightful video. I like the thesis.
Perhaps Himax Technologies can be a possible candidate. It's a Taiwan-based fabless manufacturer of integrated circuit display drivers , mainly the ones used on touch screens (TDDI). According to their last presentation (Q3-2023) 45% of their revenue originated from the automotive industry, and it's likely to grow as the number of screen units per car increases (monitors, cameras. Market cap is on the edge though-: 0.95 B$. Its ICs are integrated in computers and smartphones as well.
Thank you for the comment! Himax was raised before in a different context. We're generally staying away from entertainment type functionality, though not sure if touch screens are standard equipment for cheaper cars like those from BYD. Regardless, touchscreen tech is a commodity with plenty of competition.
I have wolfspeed, indi, mobileye and solid power i like the solid state side
But not the spac side
Hadn't considered solid state as a way to play EVs. Problem is it's hard to see a company out there as a leader in solid state when most can't even drive revenues from that tech yet. Good to see Solid Power breaching the $10 million mark now, but still very small company.
@@Nanalyze it is tiny but worth watching
I don’t think you want to promote the idea that you employ MBAs. Other than that I think this is a sober and intelligent video.
Very good suggestion. We hadn't thought about the damage that might do to our brand so mentioned this to Gwyneth in HR and she's currently making them scrub all evidence from LinkedIn and we'll hope for the best. Thank you for pointing that out!
@@Nanalyze MBA’s used to be fashionable. Then it was engineers. I’m retired now, so I don’t know what the new fashion credential is.
@@robertlee8042 These days it's probably common sense :)
I don’t think BYD EV car ownership costs can be realistically compared to the cost of owning an EV in the United States.
For ex. owning a EV vehicle in the north east USA is very different than owning a EV in China.
Totally agree. The TCO will differ for each country/province/state with cost of electricity and petrol being two key inputs. But perhaps the most important input is the initial cost of the vehicle, and that's where BYD is smoking the competition.
If EV is the future, and the tires wear out 20% faster, i wonder if that will boost the tire business. goodyear/firestone/brigdestone(i forgot which one doesn't exist anymore
Good point! The extent to which the tire business benefits will then depend on the pace of EV penetration. Also need to consider different vehicle types.
❤
😍😍😍
Did u just say that subsidy makes vehicle cheaper? xD
You watched the video right? So you should know what it said.
Bullish on EV's. Extremely bearish on China for the coming decades. Avoiding as much as possible.
The progress China is has made as a country is nothing short of stunning. That's overshadowed by risks such as their massive shadow banking sector. Will China underperform the global economy in the coming decades? Difficult to say, but we wouldn't bet against their work ethic.
@Nanalyze I do not trust any numbers china puts out. EV sales numbers, for example, are insanely inflated. In order to take advantage of government ev subsidies, ev companies are pumping out more cars they can sell. They buy these cars from themselves and register them to make them appear to be a legitimate purchase. Each "sale" qualifies the company for government grants that more than pays for the production of the vehicle. The company then pockets the difference. There are fields and fields of tens of thousands of brand new ev's that have been rotting away for years. Not only that, but the same thing happened with ebikes; which china also includes in their ev sales numbers. There are literally mountains of ebikes also rotting away in fields. This is how china's economy works. It's mostly a facade. Not to mention local debt out weighing federal debt (which doesn't get included in their global financial reporting) and all the demographic issues with nose diving population. I'm so grateful for the decoupling that is currently taking place.
This was a claim some RUclipsr was making that's not substantiated from what I can see. Fields and fields of 10s of thousands? Not anything I've seen proof of. Bikes are a completely different story. The bike sharing business model was a debacle. No, China's economy is not mostly a facade. Maybe go there and check it out for yourself. There are issues with shadow banking, and the country has lots of problems, but your criticism of the place sound a bit off. Joe P.
$INDI $6bn backlog
We focus on revenues, not backlogs, because every company defines those differently. There's a lot more that INDI needs to tell us about what they're selling and to whom which seems missing from their financials.
First, I highly appreciate you focusing that topic this quickly and I respect that you only want to review companies you have knowledge about, like you mentioned not that far ago on my Indie comment.
I personally own 7 stocks and Indie is my smallest and less favorit pick, still has 9 % share of the portfolio.
I honestly don't like to be invested in the automtotive at all (very competitive, especially for OEM suppliers), but I really like the math behind Indie, especially on the revenue side. I like the 100% industrial focus, m & a strategy and the management / board of directors. I like the valuation and next quarter profitability.
What I truly don't like is the massive stock based compensation, the cash debt marker cap ratio and in General that the business and activities of Indie for me are hard to catch, in my opinion it's a lot story selling, backlog focus and potential moonshots (what's actually going on with their charger components?). But I try my best to stay close to the company, they here and there announce some news and I follow them for instance on Linkedin which is sometimes very interesting - when they are on exhibitions and congresses, they seem very nerdy and very well connected.
Overall, for me it's my strongest invest with a gamble touch.
Looking forward to your evaluation.
Thank you very much for the comment! Only seeing this now. It's a SPAC. Expect a ton of story telling. Our Indi piece will be coming out shortly as an article.