they say it is the darkest before dawn then peter lynch said it is the darkest before pitch black. this is what came to my mind when i saw the 30% drop yesterday morning.
There's a saying "Flogging a dead horse". MPW have to think survival and get away from Stewart. Abandon Stewart and move on. I would respect management more for making the hard call. Disaster.
I appreciate your honesty and transparency. My views are aligned with yours that the management breaks even when selling the non-core assets. The play on Book Value is the only card that can restore investor confidence. Unfortunately, I am a bag holder on this business (-$6.7k). However, there is some optimism according to the Q3 earnings call I will highlight below: "We note that MPT has executed nearly $3 billion worth of asset sales over the past 18 months. While these sales have generally been quite profitable, they have also had a dilutive effect on AFFO" "By rightsizing the dividend level to a near-term AFFO payout ratio below 60%, we expect to preserve approximately $335 million of cash per year." "Through a series of open market transactions, we repurchased approximately £50 million of notes due in December of this year. And a few weeks ago, we closed on the sale of our 4 remaining Australian facilities for approximately $305 million, or a 5.7% cap rate." "I can say that we are targeting approximately $2 billion of liquidity transactions over the next three to four quarters." Cheers.
They had ard $1.2 in cashflow over the the last 12 months right? If u minus of 20 % for Steward, still seems like a good price to cashflow ratio even if u add the debt to the market cap.
It might seem that way, but you are forgetting that they are also regularly loaning 60 mil per quarter which is money they’ll never see back. Also, they are collecting stock from Prospect in leu of payment. When you subtract those items, the revenue is very slim - not enough to cover interest on debt.
@@SlavElenkov how do u feel abt the liquidation value of MPW? I think it is trading at less than 50% of NAV. But I remember reading that some assets values are internally calculated and r investments in the bankrupt hospitals so in a liquidation they may sell for much less. But even then, do u think shareholders will recover somethin? Btw recently I bought a MPW bond. It looks like it can give a cagr of above 15-16% pa if the company survives.
just kick Stewart out, cut the dividend for a while find reliable tenants and move on, I mean the managment is so messed up, or they are making tons of money out of this situation themselves.
I've owned this stock since the top and bought all the way down. I'm down 66%. the value of my bags currently are around 15k. I've written it off in my mind as a total loss, but I'll baghold through the end
We need to know what prospects there are for Steward to pay current and back rent. How can Stweard’s financial position be so horrible that they cannot make money? And if MPW made nasty, could they force Steward to sell assets, to pay what they owe? Extending loans to an entity with a record as poor as Steward’s seems very ill-advised. I would not do it.
The prospects of repayment are very slim to none. They don’t only owe MPT, they also owe money to other vendors. That’s why they weren’t able to pay this time around. They are being sued by other vendors for non-payment.
Agree w/your assertions that there needs to be either some substantive asset sales, gov intervention, or some combo of both. MPW’s management had, at least until the last year or so, seemed quite competent, so salvation is still possible, though w/every downturn it seems less & less attainable.
I think their major mistake is throwing loans at Steward that we’ll never see back. I’d rather have a tenant that doesn’t pay rent and goes BK than a tenant that doesn’t pay, goes BK AND owes me money…
@@SlavElenkov Im starting to think that managements behaviour is actually negligent. Like you I thought why the f would the management keep writing loans to Steward that most likely wont be repaid, deepen the loss instead of finding solutions to this mess. Especially when the companies life depends on it?! Also this isnt MPWs/ the managements money. Its our money, the investors equity that they go around and burn. Pretty sure management still takes their millions in wages/ compensation. At the end of the day its the equity investors who stand to loose most, followed by the lenders.
@@fizzlemynizzle7035Yes. The CEO received 1.5 mil compensation straight cash plus like 12 million in stock per year. That’s his salary in a down year where the stock loses 75% value. Imagine in an up year…
From a MarketWatch article: “Nearly 75% of Steward hospital patients are public-pay, which chronically underpays, sometimes at rates less than the cost of delivering services,” the statement said. Lesson learned: Do lots of research, and don’t buy REITS whose payments come from government.
but if there are agreements on rents, they must pay right? And the us government is not going bankrupt so how does this work? Or is steward not getting payed enough resulting in their business going shit?
WRONG! What are you talking about. In fact, these are what you DO want. You want government backed contracts. Please be careful with the advice you give.
That’s right. Apparently 75% of them underpay in one form or another. Also they lack enough staff to provide services. No services = no revenue. Disaster.
Bought 1500 shares yesterday. First position in the stock. Going to try not to add to that position if I can help it. A lot of risk right now. If we knew rates were coming down, the risk would be a bit lower. Or another 50% div cut would be bullish for me within the next two quarters if rents can’t be collected or assets sold. Next earnings call is going to be very interesting.
@@shawn4692 looks like the yields are around 12%. 60c on the dollar for the 7y note. Management should probably cut the dividend substantially at this point or sell assets, and retire many of these notes at the current prices... at least until they come up 10-20%. How do you beat a guaranteed 12% return by paying off your debt?
I am 65% down, right mow the position is getting slow and even dropping by 30% I am above the water because of other stocks, I will keep it, if turn around great, if not a expensive learning that I will also use for tax write off.
That's why position size is so important. I invested less than 0,75% of my assets in MPW, now worth approximately 0,25%, I continue to invest through a saving plan
Well this made me glad I only own 500 shares at 5.00 cost average. I will hold until it recovers. Probably looking at another dividend cut, which is okay with me if it keeps the leaking ship afloat.
Sorry for this loss, so shall not bet too much on one single share, especially for such small unstable share. Anyway, what can we do? Just pray it will not bankrupt.
Yes. All those loans to Steward were a mistake and they keep throwing good money after bad. I don’t see the point. It’s clear Steward has no intention to ever pay.
Most probable scenario here is that in a few months FED cuts rates, interest rates fall and everybody loads on cash and debts are payed. Once interest rates fall values of all companies with high debt is going to skyrocket.
Steward will not be bought before it undergoes bankruptcy. Their debt is too much and reputation in the gutter. No-one will buy it. It has negative value unless debt is cleared through BK in my opinion. As of MPT - yeah, someone could take it over. It’s selling dirt cheap.
DCA if you feel the company will survive....I am. I'm not sitting too bad right now (almost even before the last drop). I'm holding for the third time, since I sold for profit the other two times.
I can’t believe you profited from this somehow 👍. I’m going to double down around $3. I do believe they’ll survive, but the company will not be the same. Their revenue will be cut more than half from the top before it’s all said and done. But who knows 🤷♂️
Just look back last time mpw fell to 3$. Rebounded to 23$ and increased dividends until covid. Lets hope they sell some hospitals cut dividend and pay down 2025 debt obligations to stay out of bankruptcy.
No, I usually catch knives and roll with the extra downside. I just make sure the company will not go bust. Something this company has a higher risk of doing. I’m thinking about my next move. Currently I hold 11k shares. I had sold calls against the shares to protect a bit against downside but not enough.
Imagine... I've been buying since $20. Instead of selling when this matter went downhill, I just went and tried to catch the knife. I've been adding with DCA since then. It's becoming one of my biggest positions and worst investments, but I can't see anything SO wrong to justify this ultraundervalued price. I think it will double, triple easily one of these quarters. Meanwhile, I'm collecting a very juicy dividend (even if they would cut it again, which they don't have to as payout is ample). And imagine if the Fed cut rates already! Thanks.
Turns out that Friday selloff had a 10x over normal trade. I believe people are panicking and I will purchase more shares while others are fearful. I won't double down, but I will add 33% more below $3.50. Call me crazy 🤪 If the price reach $2.50 I will double down ‼️🤪🤪
I feel your pain brother. I am down $2000 on my position. Hope they can get back to $5 which is my buy price then I will be selling and putting my cash into Realty Income.
This is Serious Stuff, I believe that the Government should get involved in this we are talking about HOSPITALS 🏥 You should be keeping us Update about this Company very interesting what’s happening in this sector 🔥🇺🇸
Probably because no-one will buy them. Kinda like buying a house with a squatter who just won’t leave 😭. Oh, and the squatter owes you a bunch of money 😂. Terrible situation.
I’m sorry man. I don’t have the required insight into pharma companies to comment on drug approvals and whatnot. I’m really not a medical guy. I’m mainly commenting from a real estate perspective.
certainly. but less opportunity. who knows. this price action of MPW looks like investors think it’s going under. most investors are institutional, so if one of them thinks they need to dump, the small market cap the company has now can’t handle the price action.
Hanging in there Slav, I have 5000 shares at a higher average cost than yours. I’ll continue to hold on, real estate is not a complicated business, their management team needs to be able to manage their debt so that they can survive this rough patch. I am hoping to add more at the $3 level, hope it gets there next week👍
Not so much, but they have huge loans to the business, which is pretty much the same thing. MPT is writing off $225 million already this quarter of missed rent/loans by Steward
The $225M is actually straight line rent and not missed rent payments. It records the rent receivable for the master lease under straight line method vs increasing over time. Assuming escalation is the same each year, year 1-11 you would build up a straight line receivable since its not actually due, and years 12-22 you would chip away at it while recognizing the same revenue each year. That is just a book write off, no actual cash. They have essentially moved to the cash basis of receiving rent due to the risks. @@SlavElenkov
I'm not holding the bag. I dropped it. The loss hurt, but I wasn't that deep into it. I'll have to count on trading to re-glean. It's too close to penny-stock status. I won't be able to buy much below $3/share. I can't play that.
Some people consider sub-$5 a penny stock already. I wish I’d exited at $5, but hindsight 20-20 🤷♂️ Good on you tho for having the strength to cut losses 👍
Well actually if you take out ALL the exposure to prospect and steward and shares of PHP , you get equity of $2.75 B : this is per Q3 2023 10q , page 24. $4.60 per share , if you assume that they don't get any money from selling prospect & steward, even the buildings. I do believe they are definitely worth more than $4.60, because they will at least get some money back, even $0.20 on the dollar. However I will only buy at $1.70- 2.00 because I don't trust the management - they still wasting money on their Headquarters and 3 private jets. So basically I believe there are still skeletons left in the closet that hasn't unfolded. 2024-2025 I assume they will make the debt, but they also need to face 2026 $3b debt renewal - rofl. 2026 is the true test. I specialize in buying troubled stocks, i bought a lot of GEO last time when they converted to a C corp, I sold pretty early because there was a short squeeze last time. Made a hefty sum - problem is GEO was profitable and cash flow positive , MPW is not cash flow positive - look carefully , they keep lending their tenants money...... And I would advise you to look at the cash flow statement instead of the income statement. @@SlavElenkov
@@SlavElenkov when you buy 11k shares you hedge the f out of those if you could afford those should should have bought puts one year out at probably 0.01 per contract
so basically, MPT is gambling their existence on the ability of Steward to fully get their shit together within 1-2 years. I hope they made this decision based on their knowledge that made them think that the chance for Steward to recover is better than selling the properties at the current prices and cutting down their losses. However, now I think about it, it could be that there is some ethical consideration with their discision. Emptiying a hospital with hospitalized people does not seem very ethical to me. So even if the odds were very much against Steward, I would prefer to stick with them for the sake of those people. In that sense I understand and emphatize with the management. Does anyone know something about if Steward is having good plans or help from the government or other organisations of some sort to solve their issues soon?
I’m really hoping the govt steps in. Normally I don’t like intervention, but like you said, there may be people’s livelihoods on the line. It’s just hard to tell as there is not enough info on Steward.
Just be confident in fundamentals and be patient. Don't look at the price every day. In fact, don't look at the price, just fundamentals (maybe only when adding).
quick question why do you own so much and have you been checking the bonds. I see nothing wrong with owning alot, but each company has a bankrupcy risk so you should own only say a max of 5% of your portfolio on individual companies Unless you have alot of research on each and know every part of the business.
I’ve done a good chunk of research, but even that does not guarantee success. Yes, the position is large but that’s how I operate. I concentrate risk for meaningful moves. I have a roth account that will act as my parachute 🪂 if it all goes wrong. Ty for the advice and comment 👍
@@SlavElenkov wow I hope they don't go bankrupt, something seems strange here on the management side. I wonder if they can legally cut the dividend down again to near nothing (not sure if a reit can in a problem like this) and start buying back all of their debt that is needing refinancing in future years. That would reduce the risk of bankrupcy, or just selling items like crazy otherwise something seems pretty bad here. I don't know reits very well, but might be good to get with a really smart reit investor to get their ideas on it and if the management is doing anything right. I can't imagine watching this go bankrupt myself. Personally could only handle about 1% into this risk at this point, but I don't know reits enough to go for it so it's a too hard pile for me.
@@shawn4692 Yes, they can completely remove the dividend and still keep their REIT status. There is a lot of massaging that can be done with the numbers to make it work. Plus, when you are making negative money, it’s really easy not to pay 90% of that in dividend. 😂
Hospitals are shutting down. People in a community complain. They have to drive hours to ER, and can’t get any medical help. The city or even state or feds step in and help the hospitals restart.
First off congrats on not being in denial about MPW like many other youtubers. Second, if they sell properties, then which ones? The properties occupied by Steward might sell at below book value. If so, then the net debt to total asset ratio will increase and it's already at 53%. MPW debt convenants stipulate that it cannot go above 60%. Third, total assets of 19B is too high. Basically, they have cash and properties. The equity and joint venture investments should be written off, especially those associated with Steward. Don't know how they capitalized those "investments." Fourth, given that MPW has it's back up against the wall the net debt to total assets ratio, my guess is either the bond holders will demand bankruptcy OR they'll belch out a large number of shares and do a reverse split. Just my two cents. Maybe they can turn it around. However, I doubt it. The management team is terrible. Good luck with your position.
I hear you and agree with all of your points. I guess selling the Steward buildings at par is obviously the best play, but they won’t find buyers. I’d rather them sell performing assets at or above par to stop the balance sheet from imploding. Keep the Steward properties until they find buyers that will pay up - even if it takes years. I know that the revenue side will be hit super hard if they sell their better properties, but at this point MPT doesn’t really have a choice. I completely agree the shares they hold in the various business are basically completely worthless - especially PHP and the loans to Steward. The book value is probably closer to .6 or .7 which is still OK if they manage to sell buildings at decent prices.. That’s the scenario I’m hoping for. Thanks for the wishes. 👍
Dude you should consider that it might go against you more, just saying, i would not be surprised this thing to be on below $1 in a month or 2. Its the debt, ans 25% of it from one f one tenant. They will stat to dilute the sh oiutnof you soon.
Crazy that hospitals can't pay rent. You don't even seem upset. Appreciate your honesty and analysis and transparency.
My heart goes out to the patients at this hospital. If they can’t manage the hospital to pay their rent, I can only imagine management there.
It’s a disaster. They were very short staffed at one point so they couldn’t even provide services. No services = no revenue. 🤷♂️😭
@@SlavElenkov wow
they say it is the darkest before dawn then peter lynch said it is the darkest before pitch black. this is what came to my mind when i saw the 30% drop yesterday morning.
I agree.. They should cut there loss and stop giving money to Steawart
There's a saying "Flogging a dead horse".
MPW have to think survival and get away from Stewart.
Abandon Stewart and move on. I would respect management more for making the hard call.
Disaster.
Completely agree. Kick them out. I’d rather have empty buildings than a no-revenue loan chasing dead beat liability of a tenant.
Hey man, love your work. I have losses as well on this.. smaller position though. Lesson learned, you are going to be OK bro.
Real tough one to hold. Lets hope MPT swims out of it eventually.
Wow this thing is really making me feel the pain. Any other bag holders here?
Sorry you're going through this 😢. Hopefully you at least break even. Are you going to hold. I would probably panic sell if it wuz me yikes😮
I appreciate your honesty and transparency. My views are aligned with yours that the management breaks even when selling the non-core assets. The play on Book Value is the only card that can restore investor confidence. Unfortunately, I am a bag holder on this business (-$6.7k). However, there is some optimism according to the Q3 earnings call I will highlight below:
"We note that MPT has executed nearly $3 billion worth of asset sales over the past 18 months. While these sales have generally been quite profitable, they have also had a dilutive effect on AFFO"
"By rightsizing the dividend level to a near-term AFFO payout ratio below 60%, we expect to preserve approximately $335 million of cash per year."
"Through a series of open market transactions, we repurchased approximately £50 million of notes due in December of this year. And a few weeks ago, we closed on the sale of our 4 remaining Australian facilities for approximately $305 million, or a 5.7% cap rate."
"I can say that we are targeting approximately $2 billion of liquidity transactions over the next three to four quarters."
Cheers.
@@pazuzuxx I own way too much. I'm down 27k so far >
Down 12 k.. Average price 11.6$
Down 6 k but I m bullish
Don’t forget the Shortseller. They trade extremely this day again…the volume is for stock much to high
They had ard $1.2 in cashflow over the the last 12 months right? If u minus of 20 % for Steward, still seems like a good price to cashflow ratio even if u add the debt to the market cap.
It might seem that way, but you are forgetting that they are also regularly loaning 60 mil per quarter which is money they’ll never see back. Also, they are collecting stock from Prospect in leu of payment. When you subtract those items, the revenue is very slim - not enough to cover interest on debt.
@@SlavElenkov how do u feel abt the liquidation value of MPW? I think it is trading at less than 50% of NAV. But I remember reading that some assets values are internally calculated and r investments in the bankrupt hospitals so in a liquidation they may sell for much less. But even then, do u think shareholders will recover somethin? Btw recently I bought a MPW bond. It looks like it can give a cagr of above 15-16% pa if the company survives.
just kick Stewart out, cut the dividend for a while find reliable tenants and move on, I mean the managment is so messed up, or they are making tons of money out of this situation themselves.
Probably both are true.
I’m with you, Steward needs to go. Throwing good money after bad.
I've owned this stock since the top and bought all the way down. I'm down 66%. the value of my bags currently are around 15k. I've written it off in my mind as a total loss, but I'll baghold through the end
That’s my current attitude 🤦♂️ 27k loss so far.
So you honestly don't believe they'll make a comeback past $6?
@@pazuzuxx I hope they do. If i don't hear what I wan to hear in Feb, then $5 would be a dream scenario exit price.
The best explaination for the current situation
We need to know what prospects there are for Steward to pay current and back rent. How can Stweard’s financial position be so horrible that they cannot make money? And if MPW made nasty, could they force Steward to sell assets, to pay what they owe? Extending loans to an entity with a record as poor as Steward’s seems very ill-advised. I would not do it.
The prospects of repayment are very slim to none. They don’t only owe MPT, they also owe money to other vendors. That’s why they weren’t able to pay this time around. They are being sued by other vendors for non-payment.
Im a bag holder, too. I still remain optimistic. The pandemic brought a lot of pain.
It sure messed everything up. Wild ride.
Agree w/your assertions that there needs to be either some substantive asset sales, gov intervention, or some combo of both. MPW’s management had, at least until the last year or so, seemed quite competent, so salvation is still possible, though w/every downturn it seems less & less attainable.
I think their major mistake is throwing loans at Steward that we’ll never see back. I’d rather have a tenant that doesn’t pay rent and goes BK than a tenant that doesn’t pay, goes BK AND owes me money…
@@SlavElenkov Im starting to think that managements behaviour is actually negligent. Like you I thought why the f would the management keep writing loans to Steward that most likely wont be repaid, deepen the loss instead of finding solutions to this mess. Especially when the companies life depends on it?!
Also this isnt MPWs/ the managements money. Its our money, the investors equity that they go around and burn. Pretty sure management still takes their millions in wages/ compensation. At the end of the day its the equity investors who stand to loose most, followed by the lenders.
@@fizzlemynizzle7035Yes. The CEO received 1.5 mil compensation straight cash plus like 12 million in stock per year. That’s his salary in a down year where the stock loses 75% value. Imagine in an up year…
From a MarketWatch article: “Nearly 75% of Steward hospital patients are public-pay, which chronically underpays, sometimes at rates less than the cost of delivering services,” the statement said.
Lesson learned: Do lots of research, and don’t buy REITS whose payments come from government.
but if there are agreements on rents, they must pay right? And the us government is not going bankrupt so how does this work? Or is steward not getting payed enough resulting in their business going shit?
WRONG! What are you talking about. In fact, these are what you DO want. You want government backed contracts. Please be careful with the advice you give.
@@harrisvaneijkYou are correct in your thinking about Steward.
welcome to the bag holders club, buddy.
😂😂🤦♂️
Great video thank you. You should do videos on Steward and PHP.
It looks like the patents that use Steward Healthcare are not paying their medical bills.
That’s right. Apparently 75% of them underpay in one form or another. Also they lack enough staff to provide services. No services = no revenue. Disaster.
Bought 1500 shares yesterday. First position in the stock. Going to try not to add to that position if I can help it. A lot of risk right now. If we knew rates were coming down, the risk would be a bit lower. Or another 50% div cut would be bullish for me within the next two quarters if rents can’t be collected or assets sold. Next earnings call is going to be very interesting.
Can’t wait for the next earnings call. I’m really looking for that $600 billion in asset sales.
dustin, how are the bonds doing, i haven't checked
@@shawn4692 looks like the yields are around 12%. 60c on the dollar for the 7y note. Management should probably cut the dividend substantially at this point or sell assets, and retire many of these notes at the current prices... at least until they come up 10-20%. How do you beat a guaranteed 12% return by paying off your debt?
I sold some 3.50 cash secured puts today
Do you think the company will survive or go bankrupt ?
I doubt MPT will go bust. Dividends are still good. You'll only realize the loss if you sell.
I thought the same..but I am not sure. I bought yesterday 1000 at 3.9 prime market. Now I have 4000 at 5.20 and think the price goes up this year
@@ba-ba1193dividends will be cut.
I am 65% down, right mow the position is getting slow and even dropping by 30% I am above the water because of other stocks, I will keep it, if turn around great, if not a expensive learning that I will also use for tax write off.
I’m already using a bit for tax loss harvesting for 2023. Looks like I’ll have no tax issues in 2024 too 😂😭😭
That's why position size is so important. I invested less than 0,75% of my assets in MPW, now worth approximately 0,25%, I continue to invest through a saving plan
Good on you for having discipline 👍👍👍
Аз също съм Bag holder ,друже lol . Glad to see a good RUclips channel on investing from a Bulgarian ! Keep up the good work!
Mersi. 2024 triabva da e po dobre. stiskam paltsi.
Аз вече съм толкова назад,че ще държа до край.
Well this made me glad I only own 500 shares at 5.00 cost average. I will hold until it recovers. Probably looking at another dividend cut, which is okay with me if it keeps the leaking ship afloat.
Yeah, the name of the game here is survival. If they manage to come out the other side of this with a healthy balance sheet, then we are all winners 🏆
I just bought 500 shares too with an average of $4.
Sorry for this loss, so shall not bet too much on one single share, especially for such small unstable share. Anyway, what can we do? Just pray it will not bankrupt.
🙏🙏🙏
I'm bag holding and going to hold and wait. It's a tax write off for me if it goes BK. I agree that they should have let Stewart go BK along time ago.
Yes. All those loans to Steward were a mistake and they keep throwing good money after bad. I don’t see the point. It’s clear Steward has no intention to ever pay.
Most probable scenario here is that in a few months FED cuts rates, interest rates fall and everybody loads on cash and debts are payed. Once interest rates fall values of all companies with high debt is going to skyrocket.
I agree. There are also MPW takeover rumors on the internet, also some other company can replace Stewarts.
Steward will not be bought before it undergoes bankruptcy. Their debt is too much and reputation in the gutter. No-one will buy it. It has negative value unless debt is cleared through BK in my opinion.
As of MPT - yeah, someone could take it over. It’s selling dirt cheap.
@SlavElenkov not buy Stewarts but take over their hospitals, is has happened before
Great video mate
Second strong buy on Seeking Alpha 💪
really? someone actually marked it as a strong buy here?
@@SlavElenkov yes one yesterday and another one today. Please look at Seeking Alpha it’s free
How much further down when they cut dividend
There is no telling. It may already be priced in. It may drop further.
DCA if you feel the company will survive....I am. I'm not sitting too bad right now (almost even before the last drop). I'm holding for the third time, since I sold for profit the other two times.
I can’t believe you profited from this somehow 👍.
I’m going to double down around $3. I do believe they’ll survive, but the company will not be the same. Their revenue will be cut more than half from the top before it’s all said and done. But who knows 🤷♂️
Could some other company take over from Stewards? Some of that has already happened.
I certainly hope they’ll get taken over. However no-one will do it unless they go through bankruptcy first. They owe so much money it’s unbelievable.
Just look back last time mpw fell to 3$. Rebounded to 23$ and increased dividends until covid. Lets hope they sell some hospitals cut dividend and pay down 2025 debt obligations to stay out of bankruptcy.
I think interest rates staying at zero really helped that. I’m not sure if we’ll get the same type of boon this time around 🤷♂️
Are you selling or are keeping it?
Did you ever think of buying puts when it started to show weakness few months back?
No, I usually catch knives and roll with the extra downside. I just make sure the company will not go bust. Something this company has a higher risk of doing. I’m thinking about my next move. Currently I hold 11k shares. I had sold calls against the shares to protect a bit against downside but not enough.
@@SlavElenkov best of luck.
Imagine... I've been buying since $20. Instead of selling when this matter went downhill, I just went and tried to catch the knife. I've been adding with DCA since then. It's becoming one of my biggest positions and worst investments, but I can't see anything SO wrong to justify this ultraundervalued price. I think it will double, triple easily one of these quarters. Meanwhile, I'm collecting a very juicy dividend (even if they would cut it again, which they don't have to as payout is ample). And imagine if the Fed cut rates already! Thanks.
Hope you are right about the business. Cash is very tight for them, but they could turn it around if Steward is resolved.
Great analysis
Turns out that Friday selloff had a 10x over normal trade.
I believe people are panicking and I will purchase more shares while others are fearful.
I won't double down, but I will add 33% more below $3.50.
Call me crazy 🤪
If the price reach $2.50 I will double down ‼️🤪🤪
We’re all hoping for a turnaround story here. I hope the company survives.
I feel your pain brother. I am down $2000 on my position. Hope they can get back to $5 which is my buy price then I will be selling and putting my cash into Realty Income.
Realty Income is my biggest position 🫡
Selling a criminally undervalued stock to buy a criminally overvalued one... Seems legit.
@@SergiMedinaWhich one is the criminally over valued and which is undervalued?
@@SlavElenkov Obvious, my friend...
U seem like a cool guy. Great vid
thanks 😎
Yes, I agree. Now I am going to buy shares in MPW.
This is Serious Stuff, I believe that the Government should get involved in this we are talking about HOSPITALS 🏥 You should be keeping us Update about this Company very interesting what’s happening in this sector 🔥🇺🇸
I’ll make another rundown of the company in feb after earnings call. i also plan on shooting a quick vid about steward. gathering date now.
@@SlavElenkov Excellent 💥
it's impossible for them to sell assets rented by Steward at this time.
Why?
Probably because no-one will buy them. Kinda like buying a house with a squatter who just won’t leave 😭. Oh, and the squatter owes you a bunch of money 😂. Terrible situation.
@@SlavElenkov Maybe that squatter should be kicked out first?
@@janis6321yes, except it’s hard to kick a squatter that’s a hospital operator. it’s not a good look from a public perspective. 😢
Please cover AQST stock when you can!
I’m sorry man. I don’t have the required insight into pharma companies to comment on drug approvals and whatnot. I’m really not a medical guy. I’m mainly commenting from a real estate perspective.
Hey bro, i played Theme Hospital as a kid, trust me there tonns of money to be made.
I blame only the managment.
I hope you are right. But when and how will the management improve? We’re sitting ducks.
Isnt OHI a better medical REIT?
certainly. but less opportunity. who knows. this price action of MPW looks like investors think it’s going under.
most investors are institutional, so if one of them thinks they need to dump, the small market cap the company has now can’t handle the price action.
Hindsight is 20/20 and it just increased by 20% in last 20 days! (I hadn't seen Slav's previous comments when I wrote tbis)
Hanging in there Slav, I have 5000 shares at a higher average cost than yours. I’ll continue to hold on, real estate is not a complicated business, their management team needs to be able to manage their debt so that they can survive this rough patch. I am hoping to add more at the $3 level, hope it gets there next week👍
Thanks for the positive write up. Hoping for good outcomes 👍
You should add back the depreciation, the real estate only depreciate for the sake of taxation😂
How much of Steward does MPT own?
Not so much, but they have huge loans to the business, which is pretty much the same thing. MPT is writing off $225 million already this quarter of missed rent/loans by Steward
The $225M is actually straight line rent and not missed rent payments. It records the rent receivable for the master lease under straight line method vs increasing over time. Assuming escalation is the same each year, year 1-11 you would build up a straight line receivable since its not actually due, and years 12-22 you would chip away at it while recognizing the same revenue each year. That is just a book write off, no actual cash. They have essentially moved to the cash basis of receiving rent due to the risks. @@SlavElenkov
I'm not holding the bag. I dropped it. The loss hurt, but I wasn't that deep into it. I'll have to count on trading to re-glean. It's too close to penny-stock status. I won't be able to buy much below $3/share. I can't play that.
Some people consider sub-$5 a penny stock already. I wish I’d exited at $5, but hindsight 20-20 🤷♂️ Good on you tho for having the strength to cut losses 👍
I valued this and....... This went into my deep value pile, i am actually buying in at $1.78- 2.20. Still considered very2 speculative.
I really hope it doesn’t ever drop that low 👍
Well actually if you take out ALL the exposure to prospect and steward and shares of PHP , you get equity of $2.75 B : this is per Q3 2023 10q , page 24.
$4.60 per share , if you assume that they don't get any money from selling prospect & steward, even the buildings. I do believe they are definitely worth more than $4.60, because they will at least get some money back, even $0.20 on the dollar.
However I will only buy at $1.70- 2.00 because I don't trust the management - they still wasting money on their Headquarters and 3 private jets. So basically I believe there are still skeletons left in the closet that hasn't unfolded.
2024-2025 I assume they will make the debt, but
they also need to face 2026 $3b debt renewal - rofl. 2026 is the true test.
I specialize in buying troubled stocks, i bought a lot of GEO last time when they converted to a C corp, I sold pretty early because there was a short squeeze last time. Made a hefty sum - problem is GEO was profitable and cash flow positive ,
MPW is not cash flow positive - look carefully , they keep lending their tenants money...... And I would advise you to look at the cash flow statement instead of the income statement.
@@SlavElenkov
Have you f seen the down pressure this thing has, on price action, how don't you see this going to 2.5?
Hindsight is 20 20
@@SlavElenkov when you buy 11k shares you hedge the f out of those if you could afford those should should have bought puts one year out at probably 0.01 per contract
told it how it is. just subed
so basically, MPT is gambling their existence on the ability of Steward to fully get their shit together within 1-2 years. I hope they made this decision based on their knowledge that made them think that the chance for Steward to recover is better than selling the properties at the current prices and cutting down their losses.
However, now I think about it, it could be that there is some ethical consideration with their discision. Emptiying a hospital with hospitalized people does not seem very ethical to me. So even if the odds were very much against Steward, I would prefer to stick with them for the sake of those people. In that sense I understand and emphatize with the management.
Does anyone know something about if Steward is having good plans or help from the government or other organisations of some sort to solve their issues soon?
I’m really hoping the govt steps in. Normally I don’t like intervention, but like you said, there may be people’s livelihoods on the line. It’s just hard to tell as there is not enough info on Steward.
I invested erroneously. From now on, I am going w the top 1% of assetts. This REIT was a terrible investment.
It has turned out to be an amazingly poor investment indeed.
Just be confident in fundamentals and be patient. Don't look at the price every day. In fact, don't look at the price, just fundamentals (maybe only when adding).
quick question why do you own so much and have you been checking the bonds. I see nothing wrong with owning alot, but each company has a bankrupcy risk so you should own only say a max of 5% of your portfolio on individual companies Unless you have alot of research on each and know every part of the business.
I’ve done a good chunk of research, but even that does not guarantee success. Yes, the position is large but that’s how I operate. I concentrate risk for meaningful moves.
I have a roth account that will act as my parachute 🪂 if it all goes wrong. Ty for the advice and comment 👍
@@SlavElenkov wow I hope they don't go bankrupt, something seems strange here on the management side. I wonder if they can legally cut the dividend down again to near nothing (not sure if a reit can in a problem like this) and start buying back all of their debt that is needing refinancing in future years. That would reduce the risk of bankrupcy, or just selling items like crazy otherwise something seems pretty bad here. I don't know reits very well, but might be good to get with a really smart reit investor to get their ideas on it and if the management is doing anything right. I can't imagine watching this go bankrupt myself. Personally could only handle about 1% into this risk at this point, but I don't know reits enough to go for it so it's a too hard pile for me.
@@shawn4692 Yes, they can completely remove the dividend and still keep their REIT status. There is a lot of massaging that can be done with the numbers to make it work. Plus, when you are making negative money, it’s really easy not to pay 90% of that in dividend. 😂
This going viral?
MPW has been a train wreck for 18 months , and mgmt is terrible - why would anyone own this stock?
Because of assets vs. debt ratio. However it’s not guaranteed those assets are worth as much as they should according to the books.
Under what mechanism could you see a taxpayer funded bailout?
Hospitals are shutting down. People in a community complain. They have to drive hours to ER, and can’t get any medical help. The city or even state or feds step in and help the hospitals restart.
@@Gabe.G_LiveAt this point empty hospitals are actually better. That way at least they get rid of a liability.
First off congrats on not being in denial about MPW like many other youtubers. Second, if they sell properties, then which ones? The properties occupied by Steward might sell at below book value. If so, then the net debt to total asset ratio will increase and it's already at 53%. MPW debt convenants stipulate that it cannot go above 60%. Third, total assets of 19B is too high. Basically, they have cash and properties. The equity and joint venture investments should be written off, especially those associated with Steward. Don't know how they capitalized those "investments." Fourth, given that MPW has it's back up against the wall the net debt to total assets ratio, my guess is either the bond holders will demand bankruptcy OR they'll belch out a large number of shares and do a reverse split. Just my two cents. Maybe they can turn it around. However, I doubt it. The management team is terrible. Good luck with your position.
I hear you and agree with all of your points.
I guess selling the Steward buildings at par is obviously the best play, but they won’t find buyers. I’d rather them sell performing assets at or above par to stop the balance sheet from imploding. Keep the Steward properties until they find buyers that will pay up - even if it takes years.
I know that the revenue side will be hit super hard if they sell their better properties, but at this point MPT doesn’t really have a choice.
I completely agree the shares they hold in the various business are basically completely worthless - especially PHP and the loans to Steward. The book value is probably closer to .6 or .7 which is still OK if they manage to sell buildings at decent prices.. That’s the scenario I’m hoping for. Thanks for the wishes. 👍
Its not as bad as the Cruise lines and they are recovering, need to get rid of Steward
Those cruise 🚢 liners were certainly a big mess…
The earnings call is a just less than a month away, Feb 1st, do you think they can sell 600million worth of assets in such short time?
I sure hope so. They have a target of 2 billion assets sold by end of year. $600 mil will show me they are capable of sticking to schedule.
Dude you should consider that it might go against you more, just saying, i would not be surprised this thing to be on below $1 in a month or 2. Its the debt, ans 25% of it from one f one tenant.
They will stat to dilute the sh oiutnof you soon.
Please read
SeekingAlpha Daniel Jonas
Gov helping a landlord 😂😂😂😂😂😂
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Down 15% from 40k