Weird ways to predict the weather
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- Weather forecasts are an essential part of the modern world, but how did we get here? We explore a dome of mathematicians, a butterfly-beating supercomputer, and some very smart leeches.
Covering some of the contributions of Dr George Merryweather, Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy, Prof Vilhelm Bjerknes, Dr Lewis Fry Richardson, Dr Joanne Simpson, Prof Edward Lorenz, and Geralt of Leechia.
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This video was brought to you by an unhealthy amount of coffee and our awesome Patrons at / atomicfrontier .
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Hi, I'm James. I explore the world looking for interesting engineering stories which explore complex issues in interesting ways. I hold a First-Class Honors in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Western Australia and am currently studying a Masters of Space Systems Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
My website is www.atomicfrontieronline.com, I occasionally tweet from / atomicfrontiers , and you can join the Atomic Frontier Discord server to talk about cool engineering stuff at / discord . You can help support my work and see some cool behind-the-scenes content at / atomicfrontier .
I finally put together a webstore! Just some basic shirts for now, but it's online and mostly functional! If you can't see a carousel below the video (I'm still fixing some bugs) then you can use the link: atomicfrontier.myspreadshop.com/
And yes, there is a limited-edition Geralt of Leechia T-shirt. I've become too obsessed with Leeches + The Witcher to not do that.
Please add hoodies. I'm really in need for a new one ;)
weather on earth is ruled by cosmic weather and the sun. look up hannes alfven and birkeland currents. meteorologists just look at old data and guess. how do i know? i had meteorology at uni. duh.
The most accurate form of weather prediction uses a telescope. The moment you pull one out, you can be 100% cirtain of heavy cloud cover.
Yes, and always carry an umbrella with you; it will never rain! :D
Or induce rain by washing your car
Seems to happen when fishing too, go four times in a row on "clear" forecast get rained on. Take the risk on the shower day with all the extra gear and its sweltering.
Don’t forget the umbrella. Bringing one with you will certainly prevent rain.
So it’s your fault
This entire time I thought this channel was ran by a full professional production team how do you not have 1 mil already between the quality, mix between infographics and real footage commentary. You are going to be a one-man Kursgezagt for sure
Or as Tom Scott once said. A younger and more skilled version of him self.
Gotta work our youth to death if we want them to have validation right? Something to stand out among the crowd.
@@jeffbrownstain what even are you talking about what
@@jeffbrownstain sounds like a weird way to say you hate child labor laws
@@casev799 This is the single most rətarded comment I've read all year. Good job.
It takes a lot of stupidity and skill to read something and then see the exact opposite of what it very clearly and explicitly implied.
Probably should lay off the lead paint buddy.
I cannot stress just how much these videos feel like genuine documentaries, more than any other channel on youtube, they just have an extra feeling to them
because he cares about what he says. We have natural lie detectors built into us and bullshit detectors. This man is very far from full of shit.
@@ooglyga6100 yes that is very true
For butterflies controlling the weather look out for Terry Pratchett's Quantum Weather Butterfly which use tornados to deal with predators.
(I felt there were enough serious comments)
Down here in NZ we have perhaps the worlds BEST weather forecasters...
No matter what they predict, the public KNOWS they will be completely wrong, ignore them, and then proceed to use their own 'best guess judgement' which has a surprisingly high level of accuracy.
Furthermore, the fact that a 'typical' day here in NZ consistently contains facets of all four seasons means that it's highly probable that errors in future prediction can be interpreted as being within 18 hours of 'correct'. (NB: That 'rule' doesn't seem to hold true for the professional weather forecasters... They continue to be ALWAYS wrong!)
As another New Zealander I'm surprised by this comment. Forecasting is pretty good here, there is ocean for days around us so it's dead simple to spot things coming by satellite. However when I lived in Auckland rainfall could was very erratic at times, this is likely due it being a rare city that borders two oceans and with no surrounding mountains to shape the rainfall. So I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest you are an Aucklander.
As yet another Kiwi I recall a time it was once predicted to snow all weekend...at the end of spring. Professional weather forecasters seem to be way off, my trick knee is better than them!
@@mrfahrenheit8417 LOL @ trick knee...
I doubt that kiwi weather forecasters could even tell you what the weather was like YESTERDAY let alone what it's going to be like tomorrow. (They obviously have wayyyyyy better drugs than I have ever seen)
Interestingly, this is a common cognitive bias. You subconciously ignore all the times your best guess was wrong and remember the times your best guess was right. Hence the propagation of the phrase "bad things come in threes." By believing this, you notice three bad things happening and then stop counting since your bias has been confirmed
I tend to look out the window, usually a pretty good indicator of the weather, currently and for the rest of the day. :D
I've noticed in the past 20 years the weather channel here in Canada, The Weather Network has severely dumbed down and limited the amount of data available on their site. I remember they used to have isobar maps for barometric pressure, maps AND forecasts for the jetstream, they had wind speed, and direction and even gust speed. In other words, stuff you expect from any competent weather service. But now you go to the site for the real time weather and all you get is basically what you'd get from a widget, temperature, the "feels like" temperature, and a little cartoon graphic depicting the current conditions; if it's sunny, cloudy, rainy, etc. That's it.
It's not even like they just moved it somewhere else on the site. No, they removed it outright. There is literally no way to check what the barometric pressure is right now on The Weather Network. And you certainly don't get nice isobar maps or ANYTHING to do barometry, except when we "get a polar vortex." [sic] they might show how the jet stream is dipping down. If you want any real weather data, you have to go to the government's weather service, Environment Canada. I get that not everybody is interested in, or even understands isobar maps. But it's a weather channel ffs. The whole point of it is to post this stuff. Popularity should have nothing to do when informing the public of scientific information.
So, those who made it through my long-winded rant, am I alone in noticing this trend? Or is this something which has happened to weather channels in other countries as well? I've watched clips from America's channel, The Weather Channel and tried the forecasts and current weather on the site and even though it was some years ago, I remember my general sense was that it was just as dumbed down as what The Weather Network is. If not, worse. I remember a couple of years ago when they tried giving names to winter storms (blizzards and ice storms etc) like they were hurricanes or something. And now that I think about it, I believe they tried the same thing in the UK as well, didn't they? In any case, that didn't seem to take very well, did it?
Looking quickly at some of the local sites/networks, they also generally have the bare basics in data. Though the meteorological institute's own website does provide some more detailed data including the data collected from each weather station.
Wait... British Accent? This whole time I thought it was an aussie accent (and I'm aussie!) hahahaha
That's weird. I'm an American and he has an extremely clear British accent to me
@@biochemicalracketeering3018 yeah turns out I’m just super dumb 😅
He sounds aussie
@@zachareeeee phew not just me then. Welcome to the club!
Considering there's hundreds of different accents in England, it's easy to mistake one as an accent from one of the many, many former British Territories.
Honestly, this video looks so professional! I really enjoy your videos and it's cool seeing you and your channel grow with a slow healthy speed^^
your videos are turning into some seriously legit mini-documentaries. keep it coming!
Your videos were already great, yet they keep getting better and better. Outstanding content James! Looking forward to every video you do.
For starters, this is a wonderful video! But as a videographer, whoever is doing your masking and tracking deserves some massive praise! That is brutal time consuming work and it looks great! Keep up all the good work both in front and behind the camera
Thanks! For the moment it's all me but will be trying to get a team together if I ever increase video frequency... masking + tracking are a nightmare!! Cheers - James
@@AtomicFrontier Well then you, my friend deserve some massive praise! Thank you for what you're doing and keep up the absolutely incredible work!
As a weather geek, I gotta say this is a great video production wise and information wise. You did an excellent job explaining the equipment and how it works in a concise amount of time.
i am so glad i found you through tom scott, these are some really cool videos and i always enjoy seeing what you have to talk about next.
Thank you for being such an awesome teacher! I never did well in school but I have always been curious! Your channel has taught me so much!!
Ever since the first atomic frontier video I’ve seen I’ve noticed the quality of narration, editing, subject matter, etc. James, you do an excellent job making educational content and I hope you continue making videos for a long time
Thank you! This was a beautiful presentation of a fascinating piece of science.
2:25 what a beautiful sequence. The weather is truly amazing, in particular lightning is very fascinating. Love your videos!
Just discovered your channel, and you're amazing!
And thank you so much for having human-written, legible captions/subtitles. ♥️
Since you have a scientist brain for details, I thought I'd pass this on: at 2:02 the captions say "mimic storms" instead of "predict storms."
Thanks again for all the great videos!
Great video as always. Your channel never ceases to amaze me about the world and topics I never had or ever would think of. Thank you. Great work. Kudos!
really well done man, great breakdown of a complex topic
Such an amazing explanation, makes total sense ! Nice video James 🙂
This felt like a mini documentary series, I loved it. Kept me engaged for the entire video.
Fantastic video! Came into it expecting rehashed info of what I already knew, but most of it was brand new to me.
I love these videos, thank you James. Another fantastic video.
Amaizing content, as always!
Awesome video! Really interesting stuff :)
This video is one explanation of how clouds form away from a whole meteorology class.
The music and the "Keep looking up" at the end of your videos just feel so... epic. Like I just watched a feature length film, not a 10min youtube video on weather!
I really like this episode, excellent topic, very good explanation and awesome view. 10/10
The blue ridge mountains in nc are beautiful. Fun to camp in too
You're creating great content. Keep it up!
Good informative video. I love hearing about the odd sounding initial solutions to industries problems like the leaches and the human hair.
Geralt of Leechia ("Wind's howling") got a good chuckle out of me. And don't think I didn't notice the little Among Us guy. Thanks for including a bit of humour in your videos, makes the hard science more palatable. :)
Have you thought of repeating the rocket emoji experiment with other vehicle emojis?
Doesn't forecasting also use quite a lot more machine learning compared to calculations these days? It seems to be the style of this channel to show a lot more history compared to how they currently do it. I'd also be really interested in that last part: how do they currently do it? There was a small point of comparing previous conditions with current conditions and using previous results as the forecast for current conditions. There's more to it and I'd love to see more about it
Another fantastic video, thank you!
I was pleasantly surprised to find that most of this was new to me. Great vid.
6:36 Wow, never knew the design of the Galactic Senate was envisioned so long before the prequels came out! I do wonder if Lucas took inspiration from this design?
Just brilliant! I just wish I’d known you were in my neck of the woods, I’m actually in Chattanooga Tennessee…. but do a lot of traveling with my small business. Would’ve loved to buy you a pint or two! if you ever do any meet ups with fans and followers that would be really cool.
This channel has been one of my favorite discoveries in the past year.
Your thesis video was one of my favorites, and as a fellow photonics nerd with my own small humble lab… I greatly respect your work and research.
Keep looking up indeed!
1:43 man really do us like that. i'm seething and sobbing and crying and venting and sussing.
Incredible video with extremely good production quality. Hats off. One thing I would like to add however: the butterfly effect is often misunderstood as a butterfly's flaps cascading into a tornado, while the original argument was that whether a butterfly flaps its wings or not could determine whether a tornado sets off. A little more subtle, the former would be more like the snowball effect. :D Great video!
I find fascinating how you can present the amount of information on the take, do you have any tips on how to memorize and organize the information that then you have to say?
Absolutely fantastic, excellent work!
Extremely quality video
Highly informative
And the connections to math as a whole, and to computers and simulations, was really interesting.
Amazing video James!
very well formatted and easy to follow introduction to numerical weather prediction. I like it! I'll probably link the freshman in my department to this video lol
Are there any plans to make a followup/sequel to the "six missing sea monsters" video?
very very well made video, an important aspect that should be considered tho when it comes to modern weather prediction are atmospheric soundings and satellites (Like GOES). When it comes to atmospheric soundings, these are done twice a day by NWS centers across the US to get readings of upper atmosphere thermodynamics and elements like CAPE which is also used in weather prediction. (also please comment if i got any of the information incorrect) anyways thank you for your amazing content.
Amazing work!
Well put together
These videos feel nostalgic, like watching documentary's on tv. Especially the sound design, its very nat geo-esc
The Tempest Prognosticator is one of my favorite inventions of all time
"Wind's Howling" - Geralt of Leechia 😂
Always banger content and quality my man. Consider slightly shorter pauses (between sections) or add a bit of music to it?
Somewhat random, but this got me thinking of thermodynamics... so a cool topic to cover might be power generation, and the various ways humanity has discovered to squeeze out higher and higher efficiencies. Combined cycle power plants are pretty impressive, yet actually pretty simple in concept.
I am grateful for this quality content
The dome of mathematicians is hilarious and incredible. It belongs in a no-computer science-fiction setting like Dune, or an alternate history story. What if instead of making computers, we just became increasingly good at co-ordinating the mental efforts of many people? What other processes would be handled by such strange counsels?
Not sure how you dont get more views this is Netflix series quality Content. keep it up
Great at video as always.. Just wondering if you had to retake the shot where you were walking on the log and talking more than once. Lol
Only once or twice.... I think that was take 12
Well said. Well made.
Your work is very impressive!
Great content and production! The Blue Ridge Mountains in North Carolina are beautiful but you didn't mention that the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory is in Massachusetts!
Great work, subscribed.
Great video! Love the fact you got an actual leech to use as a prop, haha.
Great job!
Yo this was a fire video man
That was super interesting
9:28 can we all just stop to appreciate the quality of that motion tracking?
Excellent video on wx prediction! Wish I would've had it when taking my Climate & Meteorology course!
love the work
Dam you are so talented!!
I hope to achieve all your goals in life.. you definitely deserve it!
Keep producing top quality educational videos.. but PLEASE don't burn out..
RUclips still need you.
God bless you young man.
Ps. Are you studying in USA or permeant moved there from Australia 🦘 ?
I thought you were from Western Australia, saw your earlier videos from Uni.
Excellent channel
That forecast factory is unbelievably cool
Considering my hubris I though; what is this whippersnapper going to teach me?
And I stand corrected, you are eloquent and erudite and I enjoyed every second of the explanation.
Who knew hair got longer when humidity increased? I suppose the climate has been getting
more humid since I was born then.
Fantastic video as always. Thank you!
Sus
01:42 ah hell nah
Fr great vid as always tho
This was amazing
you deserve million subs and views.
When did you film this? I was there in February!!
Nice!! I think we filmed Jan 8 - 14 (ish). Very very cold if I remember correctly, hope it warmed up for you
The video: Leeches know when it will rain.
The thumbnail: "The council of leeches will decide your fate"
That's so fricking cool.
I am just curious man are you from the USA??? You always seem to be somewhere new its awesome
Moved around a lot so grew up in Australia, Singapore, UK, and US. Currently studying in Boston though so lots of American episodes for the next year before getting back to more global stuff!
1:43 - Good ole Mighty Beanz
6:48 In order to ensure the swiftness and continuing accuracy, the Forecast will be reorganized into the first Meteorological Empire, for an exact and reliable projection!
I'm glad someone else thought that looked like the galactic senate too!
0:58 as luck would have it, George **Merryweather** designed a weather detection device :D
1:07 According to Simon Clark's video on weather forecasting, the leeches would be deemed to be witches in the eye of the Law.
You forgot about the Farmer's almanac. It may be old. But it's still works for anything past a week. Three to five days is all a computer model is really good for. They are chaotic in nature, and will blow up after a few days. Do not bedazzled by technology. Use what works best for a given situation.
I love the temperature logging boxes. I use to fix these things and would LAUGH at where they were placed. Like 4 ft away from a massive AC unit blowing hot air on the box and another a few ft from a parking lot-with hot cars. And some how we trust these readings for long term data logging
How are you managing to make such quality content considering the size of your channel? Very nice dude!
Edit: Also Sus Leeches
Thanks! I just love doing this stuff, doesn't pay well (actually typically I lose quite a bit) but it's what makes the day-job (MIT Research Assistant) worth it :)
Glad you got a hair cut mid filming this video, the long hair threw me off to who you were..😁😎😁.. enjoyed the video, we sometimes complain if the weatherman does not get the forecast 100% correct... thanks..👍
Weather is a gestalt. It is a combination of many factors across a large region of space, that come together to produce a particular result in a particular place. Close-in weather predictions are easy, but long-term ones grow ever more confounded by the increasing uncertainty of the many factors involved -- aka, the Butterfly Effect! To meteorlogists' credit, the availability of better tools has improved their forecasting -- somewhat. It will never be perfect, though. Even now, it's not even close. 20 years ago, it was.. much less so! There has been progress.
I still remember semi-fondly the "it's going to be just partly cloudy and dry" day forecast for Metro New Orleans back one day in early 1990 or so. By the end of that evening, 13" of rain had fallen on parts of the city after a whole day of thunderstorms training over a narrow corridor from WNW of New Orleans right through the city's heart. I recall parts of Jefferson Parish were still noticeably flooded even 3 weeks later.
Oh weird to see this pop up (or perhaps not, thanks algorithm). I am a meteorologist and climate scientist in North Carolina. I gave presentations on chaos theory in numerical weather prediction. It's fascinating stuff and it was only after I understood the nature of the weather/atmosphere system did I concede that reliable weather forecasting beyond a couple weeks might be impossible with current instrumentation.
dope content
I like how you ended this video. I have been thinking a lot about "can we and when will we actually do it. If we can find decent ways to seed rainfall in drought ridden area's and areas where the water levels, water ways, water table has become extremely low and bad on the entire ecosystem. I live in NW Oregon and surprisingly to some, it's not raining here as much as it used to all the rest of my life. We experienced the worst forest fires ever a year or 2 back and our temperate rainforests needs more rain and honestly want scientists to do anything they can to keep the ecosystem temperate and wet and mild temperature here. I don't want south California dry weather stuff going on here. No thank you. California can keep that. (But I'd like and hope them to use the rain science to improve their ecosystem their in California too. They badly need it.) ♻️🌎♻️👍🏼
Just look here in Australia... they flooded the same town twice in a matter of weeks... because it's in the way of some massive government project they want to build... it's been flooding before winter even come around... and the amounts of obvious cloud seeding in the sky, makes me wonder how dumb that society has become to not question that aeroplane flying around in circles leaving a trail behind it.. then all of a sudden 2 days later mass flooding and down pours
I guess someday we'll learn we can't control the weather the weather and climate control us. We may affect it, but not "control it" at least for now. Imagine what a weapon "weather control" would be if we had it, for example. I live in Arizona, and we run out of water often here, because, wait for it, it's a desert! Ancient folks tried to live here and were driven out because of extended drought, long ago, before "global warming" became a trendy thing. The word "deserted" came from the root "desert" (as in a place to leave). Otherwise, it's nice today, only in the 90's, bright sun, lots of good vitamin D for folks who need it, like in Scandinavia, stuff like that!! :D
You can use cloud seeding, however of its many issues the biggest one in my opinion is that it only works if you already have a lot of water vapor / humid air to work with.
Which you generally don't have during a drought, and if you do there's a decent chance its going to rain anyways.
I think we'd need a way to redirect wind to truly begin controlling the climate, I can think of some sci-fi ways to do it, and some brute force methods but no idea that's remotely feasible. If California took down the Sierra Nevada mountain range it would get a lot more rain for example.
Great video. Sub'd!
1:48 *I can't escape it.*
Interesting content and great presentation.
1:42 I assume that 5th Leech would ring a bell when there's no storm coming, quite sus to me